you did have the minutes coming through from the federal reserve, reiterating the message from these fomchat they see upside risks to inflation. interestingly starting to perry -- pary forecast and implications of potential trump policies into their forecast. european futures off by .1 of 1%. u.s. markets are closed today as the country marks the funeral of former president jimmy carter. you had a successful and well received sale of $22 billion of u.s. treasuries and comments from chris wallace that seems to have temporarily calmed the markets. ftse 100 went into gains of .2 of 1% after the route yesterday. u.k. assets taking a knock at the session on wednesday. s&p futures pointing to losses of .2 of 1% as markets open friday. nasdaq 100 futures pointing lower by 37 points. cross asset treasuries, relief and session data after four state days of selling with eltel. yields down, 4.66 on the 10 year. the pound, a drop yesterday. further pressure on the pound today down .4 of 1%. brent, $76 per barrel. bitcoin below the $95,000. let's get to the major story unfolding, uncontrolled wildfire

for fed speak throughout monday and tuesday to give us a sense as to how much caution is within the fomc cuts. european markets set for a fairly positive start on the first full week of trading. s&p futures stateside pointing to modest gains after a decent session. let's check in on the treasury and u.s. yield story because they are at about the highest levels since around may, currently in poor .61 with yields up again two basis points. euro-dollar at 103 and we look ahead to pmi data at 9:00 a.m. u.k. time. trading lower at 76.22 and gold down .3% and goldman sachs pushed back there forecast for $3000 gold until the middle of 2026, currently 2631. elon musk appears to have turned on nigel farage, a friend of donald trump who he previously supported. he posted the reform party needs a new leader. faraj does not have what it takes. lizzy burden joins me now. why the sudden and dramatic pivot on nigel farage from elon musk and do we care? >> far be it for me to read the mind of elon musk but this really is a u-turn and it shows he's becoming a headache not just to keir starmer but the rig

though that has been applied somewhat selectively during the press conference at the last fomc.hat some members folded and expectations for what they see the incoming president doing while others didn't. it was a real mixed bag. that doesn't make for a very useful forecast especially when it comes to something like inflation, does it? >> know, it makes everyone's job a lot more difficult but i think this is part of uncertainty as the incoming trump administration takes over on january 20. we are going to have to see what he goals out on day one or one, whether or not those tariffs are going to be taking in right away, the intended 20% blank iteris, 25% tariffs on canada and mexico and 10% on things coming in from china and that was already at 60%. abbottabad is going to be dependent on what exactly plays out, how long they are going to be for, and i think that is what the fed is going to be watching. there's a lot of uncertainty. this is why pointed out some fed members took that into account their forecast. some did not, and some refrained to say. so i guess nobody really knows

charles: how about the competition in the fed, fomc members and does that change at all? become ago bit more hawkish in general? >> they've become more hawkish but not more hawkish because of peak spl cigs. we talk about thag our panels and i think it's much more because the data is so inconclusive in throwing us different things and at first we were looking at, you know, are the interest rates affecting us, where is the path going, are we in a sense where inflation is going down. now we're at the point where the fed and markets if you look at risk assets are really questioning inflation both inflation as a result of trump and what the composition of washington will look. charles: assumptions and no policies are put in place just yet. talk about you do say don't bet against the odds. right now your odds, your base case is no landing and that's a 50% there and bulk case, 25% and gang busters and barricades, heart landing and anyone in the camp is a 10% chance and tariff shock. start here. >> i think we're here. charles: even the gang buster s? >> i think we're here. this i

specific posts work -- we are bringing up jay powell it was such a big question at the recent -- recent fomc about whether he would step down or change his role. here's chairman, but even if he steps down or is removed in some way, he could still stay on at the fed. mike: he could. his term as chair is up next year and the president elect has made it pretty clear he wouldn't reappoint him, but he could stay on the board until 2028, preventing trump from the point anyone else within the board to be chair. you don't have to give the fed governor a chair of the federal reserve, but the chair of the open market committee that makes the interest rate decisions doesn't have to be on the fed. scarlet: like this speaker of the house situation. mike: right. he could still be on the board with a different person serving as chair. scarlet: like elon musk or something? mike: right, someone from the outside. probably none of this is going to happen, but it is kind of fascinating to contemplate. scarlet: good stuff. michael mckee, alway a pleasure to have you on. personnel policy, taking shape here in was

we have heard from lisa cook reiterating what seems to be a consensus view from fomc officials now that there is need for caution in terms of next steps on rate cuts for the fed. a bit of money moving into treasuries after yields spiked higher in recent days. the japanese yen in focus. the finance minister they were focused on fx moves. paring some of the heavier losses, down .1% versus the dollar. brent at $76 a barrel, bitcoin back over 100,000. let's get across now i'm once happening in the asian markets. avril hong standing by in singapore. >> the asian stock gauge running higher but it's a mixed picture if you look under the hood. the chip names are doing well thanks to jensen huang and nvidia, the likes of tokyo electron surging and helping the nikkei to these out performances as we see the bank stocks also lifting the gauge helped along by the export related counters given the week yen but on the hong kong benchmark it's the underperformance as two of the biggest stocks in the greater china region get put on a u.s. defense department blacklist and have denied any links with the c

at the end of this month an fomc rate decision.r estimate. lisa: incredibly important to see what this looks like him especially after the allegations of the distortions of the data because of the hurricanes and other ramifications. a real question about whether we have seen a blip for the past five days in terms of a hiccup in risk assets or if this is a forward-looking indicator at a time where so many people are expecting that labor market to hang in there. jonathan: the set up to this year is so different to last her. we came into 2024 looking for four to six interest rate cuts. coming into this year sentiment is skyhigh, investors, businesses, consumers, you have interest rate expectations incredibly low. we are expecting 1, 2 cuts. let's see how things change over the next few weeks. lisa: last year the biggest mistake was that people were too bearish on risk assets and too bullish on the prospects of rate cuts. they overestimated how much higher rates would diminish some of the momentum in the u.s. economy. in the u.s., coul

been easing, for whatever reason, he felt compelled to ease financial conditions last fall, after the fomc meetings in november and december. the statements were very anodyne, and he walked out at a press conference and gave very dovish guidance of rate hike, rate cuts are coming and a massive ease of financial conditions. by doing that, what happened? he pushed up the stock market, which benefits the top 20%, and then we are back to the bottom 50% who don't own assets, they have debt, so rates have had to stay higher for longer. i actually think that he has hurt biden's chances by reigniting inflation, pushing economic growth, re-accelerating economic growth, when it could have been slowing. and i think they could have been cutting rates, but they are not. and i would also predict that it won't be a slowdown in inflation that causes rates to get cut. i think it will be an economic wobble. reihan: you mean that there is going to be some kind of, maybe a quarter of negative growth, or something like that? scott: for some kind of slowdown in the economy -- i think it will be an economic slow

time, the fomc minutes. really important given where traders now think the next cut is going to land. the nuance in terms of that december decision and how that feeds expectations going forward this year. you can get around up the stories you need to know in today's edition of daybreak terminal subscribers can go to dayb on the terminal. trump dominating the cover it with those comments about greenland, canada and the panama canal. samsung rises after nvidia founder jensen huang expressed confidence in the korean firm. despite disappointing earnings, as it plays catch up in ai, we bring the latest next. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> i think having someone who is very close to the u.s. industry and to the ev world. i think it should be positive for the industry. tom: hyundai motors' new ceo, the first foreign leader to head up the south korean automaker, speaking to us exclusively. sticking to korean companies, samsung shares surging after nvidia ceo jensen huang expressed confidence in the firm, despite disap

wednesday, fomc minutes and samsung earnings.rsday the new york stock exchange and nasdaq will be closed in honor of jimmy carter's state funeral, with the bond market closing at 2:00 p.m. and friday, the u.s. jobs report. we are going to look at those jobs numbers. a lot riding on what is happening in employment. strength had been expected, but payrolls expected to come in at 150,000. the end employment rate, expected to stay flat. we are watching the rounding, because rounding up would be a bad thing. but perhaps things are stronger than you thought. new york, that does it for us. this was "real yield." ♪ at morgan stanley, old school hard work meets bold new thinking. to help you see untapped possibilities and relentlessly work with you to make them real. lock in let's go. and relentlessly rated e for everyone. [rock and roll music playing] xfinity. made for gaming. rewards members, get early access to an ea sports fc25 kit. visit xfinity.com/rewards. >> welcome to bloomberg markets. i'm scarlet fu. let's show you where we sta

guys, you can look at it, potential staking out a kind of hawkish position or hawkish wing of the fomchis year. >> in other words, would the discount rate be news or is this news because you think there is something to read into about the next direction on interest rates? >> yeah, the latter of that, kelly. usually, okay, an example. in september, all 12 discount -- all 12 banks requested a cut in the discount rate. not all requested 50 basis points. for the november meeting, ten of the 12 did. now we are down to eight of the 12. so i think this tells you how -- remember when powell said it was a close call? it was a close call, more banks did not really seem to be onboard with that quarter point cut. then i think it's also important that both st. louis and kansas city, those banks did not request the cut and they are headed by two guys who have been a little mo more on the hawkish side of late. >> appreciate it, steve. steve liesman with the it's least from the fed. and in terms of the markets, we are at an inflection point. no, good news is bad news. recent economic data does make a

don't think jay powell will worry about the reaction, nor should he, and i think people around the fomcle based on everything i know will try to make the best decision they can, but people out there should just understand, yeah, inflation has gone along sideways, one reason to slow down. and then the structural shifts are another reason. and i think part of doing your job is to be a risk manager not to be a prognosticator if you're at the fed. give the same advice to clients also. and you got to let this situation clarify and that's okay. i think the biggest mistake you can make, act like you know more than you do. launch in, take further action when the situation's unclear. it will clarify as we head past january and into the spring. and they'll act accordingly and act appropriately as becomes clearer what the next step ought to be. >> mr. caplan, leave it there. appreciate your time. see you soon. >> good to talk to you, scott. >> robert kaplan. >>> news breaking on medical devicemaker striker. we have dames. ang gem kaw? >> angelica? >> advance talks akeir choiring a company making m

the fomc minutes and u.s. consumer credit in the afternoon. so some key reports to watch as we try and make sense of all of this. >> starting to talk more about banks, which makes sense, because us here at "overtime." >> "fast money" starts now. >>> live from the nasdaq market site in the heart of new york city's times square, this is "fast money." here's what's on tap tonight. a late-day selloff as yields hit eight-month highs. nvidia sinks from records. what sparked the moves, and how to trade the action, coming up. >>> plus, meta's moderation moves. mark zuckerberg making a big change to how it monitors content. >>> then, caveat emptor. why the red flag is being raised. >>> and later, fighting words from the ceo of u.s. steel. and we reveal the winner of our 2024 acronym challenge. i know you've been waiting for that one. i'm melissa lee, coming to you live from studio b at the nasdaq. on the desk tonight -- tim seymour, karen finerman, steve grags grasso, and katie stockton. >>> and as we mentioned, markets closing near their lows of the s

it was intriguing in the last fomc statement, there's a lot of conversations and guessing, but the fed data-dependent. for them to be talking this much about trump's policies and perhaps adverse impacts on economy, it lends credence to your concern that maybe they're going to take actions that they don't necessarily have to take. >> you're right, charles, especially when you realize many of these trump policies, we don't even have them yet. they're been talked about at the 30,000-foot level, and yet the fed is already making the determination that they're going to be inflationary? i'm sorry, where were you clowns when biden was spending trillions of dollars we didn't have? oh, that's right, you were telling us inflation was transitory and that all of that excess spending was not, in fact, going to be inflationary in the hong runful turns out they were -- long run. turns out they were wrong. these are the same people who were hiking interest rates and selling off the balance sheet essentially for all of trump's term until covid hit. the exact opposite of the treatment they gave obama wh

there are then contracts of what the federal reserve will do in terms of interest rates and fomc in terms what we'll do at its next meeting. but as he said and as you noted light is becoming increasingly blurred because the statute we have identified a series of events that are prohibited, but we have because of phones and access to markets, all things like i mentioned in my remarks, we have new cohort of market users who really want to bet on everything and anything. political elections is one thing that is. i've spoken about that a lot. we're in the middle of the negations, there was a physical decision in the d.c. circuit, d.c. dish the in september that ruled against the cftc upset at this point these concerts are permissible. fine, uncollared respect that decision. >> you fought against betting on election come against contracts on election futures, and the judge, not being in the public interest, this specific judge said no, no, no, you know, everybody wants to know who's going to win and seeing futures on who's going to win is permissible. >> more technical than your sort of synops

spring summertime range, that was the upper end of the range, where the market broke out after the fomceeting, if you look at the november, december price action, even if you look at that as a short-term distribution pattern, that measured move objective sits right on top of that same zone. so, i think that's likely to hold if we do pullback and sentiments has come off a good bit with the december churn that you talked about. aai down to 35%. some of the lowest numbers since april when bonds were moving higher during that period. the market has done a good bit of work with what happened in december already in terms of taking some of the froth out of the -- >> there is a lot of attention as there always is about market breadth and whether it is a broad rally or under the surface you're seeing wear and tear. been negative for a while. to the point where it is looking oversold for the majority. >> fitting with that, if you look at things like the percent of the s&p above its 50-day average, back to levels you saw in april again. and that corrected price action started earlier in december f

hold at the end of the month, which is pretty much what they have been signaling since the december fomceeting if not earlier. obviously if we got a surprise to the downside, you have to have a pretty surprise to the downside that could change that narrative. i think it's pretty hard to see upside surprises yet getting a narrative of hikes. i think that's discussion for much ater. >> steve -- well, yeah. we start talking about hikes, that would be a whole other market story. i take your point with bond yields and data are doing. you never know. what about, steve, the news that barr will step down from a supervisory role, stay on the fed board and while it may sound kind of wonky or inside baseball, it's true that this is bank supervision and perhaps he foresees an administration that will come in and either be letting banks do more mna, more lending into the economy, that kind of thing, is there a larger macro take away from this? >> well, i think that it's part of a pendulum swinging back from the banks being very much under the thumb of government and regulators to at least some relief

that are ven contracts on what the federal reserve will do in terms of interest rates and the fomc at its next meeting. as i said and you've noted the line is increasingly blurred because of the statute that we have identifies the series of events that are prohibited, but we have-- because of phones and because of access to markets, all things i mention in my remarks, we have, you know, new cohort of market users who really want to bet on everything and anything, so, political elections is one thing that has come up, i've spoken about that a lot. we're in the middle of litigation, i won't get too far into it, but in the d.c. district court in december that ruled against the cftc, at this point the contracts are permissible, fine, aim he going to respect that decision. >> you fought against betting on election, contracts on election futures and the judge-- as not being in the public interest and this specific judge said, no, no, no, everybody wants to know who is going to win and seeing the fups on-- futures on who is going to win is permissible. >> more technical than your synopsis. >

most of that shift happened in the fomc december meeting. about the fed having to hike rates? this is pricing out any need for the fed to be cutting and pushing on my long-standing, you know, refrain every time i come on the show. it's just financial conditions are really undermining the fed's view that their policy is really that tight. and so, they don't need to be worried about how tight their policy is, so this is pricing out some of those future cuts for 2025, not that we had that many priced into begin with. lisa: you have asked and answered most of the questions we had. what do you do with this? does this make you more bearish on equities? or does it actually make you more bullish? because ultimately, you are not going to find the value in fixed-income it is going to come from the strength we justice are reflected. >> you touched on it as well. it's a good report. mohammed's first point this is good news, this is american exceptionalism this is a strong economy, this should be good for stocks and risk assets. i think that ultimately i

locations based off state -- the fomc.playbook for some of the environment this year. jonathan: that goes against the hopes and dreams of a market that broadens out and then we saw brett the russell, the small caps which start performing in the basically the russell has rolled over and we are unchanged election day. what is it going to take for this market to border beyond the mag seven? >> got these huge one-day move that they after the election, totally evaporated. what we need to see is evidence of rep coming in from earnings season, and we need to see this macroenvironment remain in the goldilocks-type state where the data is good, but not too hot that the bond market derails things. lisa: i will take your disorderly corrections and counter it, he lived to the 1995-1999 period and the subsequent 2000-2002 period. he said the hallmarks of a selloff with higher volatility you're not seeing that so given the fact that there is something behind some of the dynamism people are talking about, he remains fully polish. why don

we have the fdic, we have the fomc, the monetary policy leak that took place as well a few years ago. there's the regulatory issues that we have to take up. i'll just point out that on financial services we have, we have capital markets or wall street, we have all the banking from big banks to small banks, insurance, housing. the federal reserve monetary policy, it's a big space and we have a very small team and we have to figure out what spaces we can get into and fully investigate. and there's so many issues out there, greta, but instead of having, you know, 500 people, i have 5 people on our team that does all this work, so we've got to pick and choose what works, but we will take a look at that. host: all right, let me get in rick in jacksonville, florida, independent caller. caller: i got an answer for one guy called in about testing welfare recipients. we tried that in the great state of florida, and i think it was like less than 2% of the people was, didn't pass the drug test, but i want to say you were talking about educating the young youth and in the last presidential electi

[laughter] certainly the rules have changed and the fomc.wing some discomfort with inflation. lisa: i think the increase in question becomes how low is the bar for them to start talking about the possibility that they would have to hike again? one thing to not hike for the remainder of the year, but another step to become restrictive. annmarie: how much tension will that because with the incoming administration who wants rates lower? this is a real estate guy that wants to see rates lower. jonathan: he wants rates down, the dollar weaker, policies that will push things in the other direction. all it takes is that you just get some finance ministers together, sing a couple of things, and things start to shift. lisa: what would that deal look like? jonathan: who wants to play ball if you are getting so aggressive on tariffs? lisa: maybe greenland. jonathan: conversation for another day. let's get an update on stories with your bloomberg brief. dani: wildfires in southern california have killed at least 24 people and destroyed more than 12,000

jonathan: the fed governors saying that the fomc can proceed cautiously on further rate cuts with pressures wrote -- i expect inflation will return to 2% within their current timetable and they don't want to risk cutting the rates and then backtracking higher if inflation rises again. charles, welcome to the program. want to go through a range of comments we have had over the last few days. governor cook called things stickier. daley said we are uncomfortably above the target. why do you suppose with all of that in mind they reduced interest rates at the last meeting? >> well, i think the fed has done a readjustment of the stance on monetary policy to cut rates by 100 points over the last years in september. the last cut in december was a close call, according to chair powell. i think they are well positioned at this point to deal with the risks they expect to be facing this year and i think there are a lot of risks. inflation has been bumpy and they're focuses is on getting inflation back to 2%. they are looking at a projection of themselves of a core pce at the end of this year of 2.5%, m

ahead, we continue to like large-cap tech quality and growth given the higher for longer nature of the fomcep update and markets pricing just two cuts in 2025 and a 10% chance of 825 basis point rate cut in january. stuart joins us. let's talk about how different the set is now compared to 12 months ago. last year, we bought six or seven p how different are things this time around? stuart: it's a lot different. it was the second consecutive year of we are going into a recession immediately. it's the first time in two or three years where recession has not been the top line up on the economic boards which means we will probably get it. the other part is the nature of the buying. talk about small-cap over performing. the buying was from foreign investors and etf's. you are coming to u.s. equity markets because we have large-cap tech growth stocks. i think the foreign flow tends to gravitate to that part of the market and that's probably why you saw the big differential. jonathan: do you need that pole, that so-called reservoir of negativity? do you need it this time around? can you find it ab