since september, the fomc lowered the policy rate by four percentage point from its peak after having maintain the target range for the federal fund rates at five point when he 5%-five .5% for 18 months. that recalibration of a policy stance was appropriate with the cooling of the labor market. meanwhile we continue to reduce our securities holdings. with our policy stance now significantly less restricted than it had been and the economy remaining strong, we do not need to be in a hurry to adjust our policy stance. we know that reducing policy restraint too fast or too much that hinder progress on inflation. at the same time, reducing policy restraint too slowly or too little could unduly weaken economic activity and employment. in considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the fomc will assess incoming data, the evolving outlook and the balance of risks. as the economy evolves, we will adjust our policy stance in a manner that best promotes our maximum employment and price stability goals. if the economy remain strong

less than a month ago you expressed serious concerns over the risks of inflation, but since then the fomc has cut the target rate by 100 basis points, as you mentioned in opening remarks. fomc says now that they felt the labor market and inflation have reached a point where you are comfortable maintaining the target range. markets have been pricing in fewer cuts. i want to talk probably about the market conditions that you see. is there evidence of a higher neutral rate and emerging at this point? chair powell: yes, let me say there was a lot of reason to be concerned about downside risk towards the middle of this year, but concern has diminished significantly, labor market is very strong. my own view, and there are many different views on this, the neutral rate will have risen meaningfully very hard to be precise about it. extraordinarily so, historically. many of my colleagues feel that way. sen. haggerty: seems that way. i would like to turn now to what seems to be a popular topic at this point, the cfpb. in your response to the earlier questions, you confirmed that when they submit qu

wednesday, minutes from the fomc and cpac gets underway.rsday, walmart earnings and the g20 summit in south africa and more earnings from mercedes and rivian. and then u.s. home sales and we look ahead to warren buffett's letter to shareholders on saturday. let us see how much value is alive and well in this market. from new york, that does it for us. same time, same place. this is bloomberg real yield's and this is bloomberg. ♪ vonnie: welcome to bloomberg markets. let us get a check on the markets. on the face of things not a lot is happening but the s&p 500 is down a little bit. the stocks are moving en masse. we have a lot of earnings ries and the chip stocks blowing as the wind takes them. so the philadelphia semiconductor index about have higher and have lower. we have the 10 year at

since last september the fomc lowered the policy rate by 4% from its peak after having maintained the target range for the federal funds rate at 5.5% for 14 months. that recalibration of our stance was appropriate in light of the progress on inflation and the cooling in the labor market. meanwhile we've continued to reduce our security holdings. with our policy stance now significantly less restrictive than it had been in the economy remaining strong, we do not need to be in a hurry to adjust our policy stance. we know that reducing policy restraint too fast or too much could hinder progress on inflation and at the same time, reducing policy restraint too little could unduly weaken economic activity and employment. considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the fomc will assess incoming data and the balance of risks. as the economy evolves, we will adjust our policy stance in a matter that best promote maximum employment and price stability goals. if the economy remains strong and inflation does not continue to move sust

will be asked about tariffs undoubtably on the impact on inflation and inflation very much on the fomc'sat does it for daybreak. the opening trade is up next. this is bloomberg. ♪ and all our smart beds adjust the firmness for each of you and now, save 50% on the new sleep number® limited edition smart bed. shop a sleep number® store near you. the way i approach work post fatherhood, limited edition smart bed. has really trying to understand the generation that we're building devices for. here in the comcast family, we're building an integrated in-home wifi solution for millions of families like my own. in the average household, there are dozens of connected devices. connectivity is a big part of my boys' lives. it brings people together in meaningful ways. anna: in hour away from the opening trade, a profit beat for unicredit sees

is -- i can tell you what staffers generally get, the economic analysis that we do in advance of an fomc meeting. you know, in modern central banking, we try to be as transparent as possible. i don't want to sound like i'm dismissing this case in which we take very, very seriously, just as you do. the truth is what we have that is secret knowledge of what we are going to do in the future and in modern central banking, the whole idea is to be transparent about what you were going to do. nonetheless, we take this case very seriously, to your question. rep. loudermilk: and i appreciate it. this is not adversarial at all, i'm just trying to get to what possibly the chinese could have gone and if they have anything with it. of course if you are unaware of the type of information accessed, you couldn't answer that question, but does the federal reserve have an insider threat program designed to combat this kind of espionage? mr. powell: so we have a very, very strict information handling requirements. we do background checks on every federal reserve employee before they start working there. we

again after the fomc cut at each of its last three policy meetings.walked a fine line on the impact of policy coming out of the new trump white house, including tariffs. >> the standard case for free trade and all that logically still makes sense. it didn't work that well. when we have one very large country that doesn't really play by the rules. and in any case, it's not the fed's job to make or comment on tariff policy. we you know, really that's for elected people. and it's not for us to comment ours. ours is to try to react to it in a thoughtful, sensible way and make monetary policy so that we can achieve our mandate. >> austrian national bank governor and ecb governing council member robert holtzman says policymakers must act carefully, given the threat of trade curbs from the us administration. speaking to cnbc, holtzman said the central. bank should not be focused. >> on boosting. >> growth through rate cuts. >> we have for also. the threat. >> of high inflation, given the changes on tariffs and the result of it. my take is we have to be very

we'll also hear from several fomc members, including boston fed president susan collins, who's speakingusively to our u.s. colleagues. and, of course, u.s. markets will be closely watching, watched after the decision by president trump to impose those tariffs on mexico, canada and china. and of course, here in the uk, we've got the bank of england coming up on thursday. i'm sure some viewers stateside will be keeping an eye on the bank of england. us futures right now we're looking at red across the board. the dow jones looking to open now about 570 points lower. the nasdaq about 370 points and the s&p 500. looking to pull back about 90 points. the chip makers in particular focus after the roller coaster week that we saw last week in extended trade. you've got all of them down. nvidia of course, the chief stock among them down about 2.9% after hours. now it's shaping up to be a busy week here in europe, with a slew of pmi and inflation data from the eurozone, along with an opec jmmc meeting set for later today. on tuesday, we will again hear from alphabet of the magnificent seven. we're

the fomc? that is what they are doing.eel time and they have to come up with certain scenarios. what are those scenarios? jonathan: we will catch up with kelly ann shaw next. ♪ ♪ ere ya headed? susan: where am i headed? am i just gonna take what the markets gives me? no. i can do some research. ya know, that's backed by j.p. morgan's leading strategists like us. when you want to invest with more confidence... the answer is j.p. morgan wealth management a sleep number® smart bed is perfect for couples the climate360® smart bed is the only bed that cools and warms on each side and all our smart beds adjust the firmness for each of you. and now, save 50% on the new sleep number® limited edition smart bed. shop a sleep number® store near you. (giggling) you go to sandals to get really, really close, (giggling) to the caribbean. we should do this every morning. sandals valentine's sale is now on. save up to $1,000 and get a sandal-lit dinner for two. jonathan: from a beautiful new york city, it is a winter wonderland. i always

stuart: i think he will try to stay as much as on script relative to the january fomc as he possiblyously, which is a surprise to some people. the wages data. in general, they will repeat the strong underlying growth narrative and atlanta gdp rate. they have been very selective about which inflation metric they choose to make sure it is the best of the bunch. jonathan: let's be selective and take the data from friday. wages hotter than expected. average hourly earnings with an upside surprise. the outlook for inflation ticking higher. is that sufficient to constrain the easing bias he is still that he still communicated at the last conference? stuart: i do think it is enough to change just yet. we had a big upside supplies last -- surprise last january. it's a survey of less than 500 consumers trying to predict inflation in the next five to 10 years. a little bit of a grain of salt has to be taken with it. he will acknowledge it but is not enough to change for the base case is right now. lisa: collaborate on the line you said, the impact of the data may be muted by the fomc's positiv

we'll hear from several members of the fomc, including richmond fed president tom barkin and his chicagoerpart, austan goolsbee. the earnings keep on coming with disney arm and qualcomm amongst the big names reporting today. and the u.s. postal service is temporarily suspending all inbound packages from china and hong kong following new u.s. tariffs on chinese goods. apple shares are seen lower in premarket trade after a report that china is considering a probe into the tech giant's policies and app store fees. that's according to bloomberg, which cited sources familiar with the matter. cnbc has reached out to apple for comment. apple's not the only one that is down premarket. alphabet shares sank in extended trade after the tech giant missed on fourth quarter revenue expectations and announced further investments into ai. revenue at the google parent company grew 12% year on year, slightly weaker than the same quarter last year amid a slowdown in its search business, as well as its youtube ad business and services unit. richard kramer, senior analyst at arete research, joins me now. ric

we'll also hear from fed governor chris waller and dallas president lorie logan, as several fomc memberserns over the impact of trump's tariffs on inflation. today is the deadline for federal workers to accept the deferred resignation offer from the trump administration, and amazon will become the latest of the magnificent seven to report, with numbers due after the closing bell. disney topped first quarter profit estimates, but revealed it began to lose subscribers to its disney plus streaming service. the entertainment giant posted a 23% rise in net income, while revenue increased 4.8%. but disney plus subscriptions eased in the quarter, with the company warning that it expected another modest decline in the coming months. you can see shares down about 2.4%. disney cfo hugh johnston told cnbc he was satisfied with the overall numbers despite challenges on multiple fronts. >> i feel. >> great about the quarter. >> well in excess. >> of expectations and. >> most importantly. >> broad based growth. >> the entertainment business came in very strongly on the. >> back of moana. >> two. >> as

. >> agrees with powell on the fomc. >> look the real. issue mike isn't the real issue.e is. >> what. >> does the. >> fed control. >> and i'm going to give you a quick numerical breakdown. the federal government last year fiscal year just ended in october took in $4.96 trillion in revenue. >> that's taxes. >> and fees. they paid out almost $1 trillion in interest. so imagine a business that 19 or 20% of their. intake goes to paying interest. you wouldn't invest none. none of our viewers would invest in. that business. now that. cost is going up. because the seven and ten year treasuries. >> that were financed at. >> 2% are now going to be issued under secretary bassett at 4.5% or four plus percent. my point. >> is. >> the cost of carry is going up, right? the fed does not control that. the fed does not have any control over the yield curve. i believe beyonce six months or one year max. and if you look at what happened since they cut rates in september, the rates in that part of the yield curve one year out, two years out have all risen significantly. why? because the sup

we'll hear from several members of the fomc, including the minneapolis fed president neel kashkari, whoking exclusively to our us colleagues now. ise also on ai related stocks as microsoft, google and meta platforms project combined capital expenditure of at least $215 billion for the current fiscal year's, up more than 45% on the year. and it is super bowl weekend. reigning champions kansas city chiefs are going to the three peat as they take on the philadelphia eagles. and president donald trump is said to be among the attendees at sunday's game. a record $1.39 billion of bets are expected on the game through legal and regulated operators, according to data from the american gaming association. contessa brewer asked kansas city chiefs quarterback patrick mahomes whether the gambling boom is good for the sport. >> it gets people watching. i think that that's good for the sport, but at the end of the day, i want people to realize that it's a game that you play on the playground for recess and the stuff that you just go out there and give everything you love. and i think that's what we t

the fomc has continued to monitor panama's progress on this front. i have continuing concerns about the auction light slot allocation procedures. not as they are applied right now, but when another low fall rain period occurs. as we learn more about panama and the canal authority and how they would handle another drought and receive more input from american imports and exporters the commission remains position to take appropriate action if warranted. how the panama canal's operations affect american commerce is a high priority for the upper room c under my chairmanship and remains a high priority at the federal maritime commission and i am pleased it is a priority for this committee as well. chair cruz: thank you, commissioner. our next witness is a law professor who can explain panama street he obligations and the remedies the u.s. might seek for potential violations. the professor is appearing virtually and you are recognized for your opening statement. >> chairman cruz, ranking member cantwell, i appreciate and regret the opportunity to testify be

meanwhile on the fed, trump said the fomc was right to pause its rate cutting last week.hen he arrived in washington the president said i'm not surprised holding the rates at this point with the right thing to do. it marks a shift from a decision calling on the central bank to cut rates. and cruise i set to begin lifting the american airlines jet from the potomac river today. this coming five days after the plane and army helicopters collided in a fiery crash that left no survivors. the army corps to the process could three days to complete. donovan: up next, carrot confidence. from: tara don't cause inflation, they cause success. we are going to have great success. there could be some temporary short-term disruption and people will understand that. jonathan: maybe not as expensive as you might expect. we are down, but not down too hard. from new york city this morning, good morning. ♪ jonathan: what a way to start a trading the. equity think that down across the board. negative by 1.4. on the nasdaq by 1.6. under surveillance this morning, trump tariff confidence. 6 >> a

it would not allow the fomc to cut rates soon. lisa: she is talking about the neutral rate being around where we are currently. she is on the hawkish side. what is interesting to me is how little this moved the market. one hawkish member is trying to put out this possibility. they will move according to the data and they are not getting forward guidance. people are looking for cracks now. they are looking for downside surprise. it is no longer the fed. it is the 10 year yield. jonathan: 40 basis point move off the highs of last month. we are also waiting for policy changes. the president's tax plan, end taxes on tips and overtime. extend t cja back from 2017. -- got it. then they threw in this yesterday. end the carried interest loophole. it did not see that coming. lisa: did not see that coming as well as an embrace for new team owners. these are two new provisions. all i would say for this for both of you, if this republican majority passes closing, i will buy dinner for everyone. i do not see this happening but he is coming out

. >> fomc meeting on march 19th. >> so you. >> know, it's always the latest one next month. and truthfully. >> i. >> think that the market is now, you know, more concerned about tariffs. >> than the cpi. >> i mean they're sort. >> of. reconciled to. >> hey maybe. >> one cut, maybe not. >> i mean, that whole thing. >> about four cuts is, is down. >> i know. >> citibank has called for that. >> but that i. >> think i think you're only going to get 4 or. >> 5 cuts. six cuts. >> if you're going to if you're going to get some really. weak economic news. >> and i. >> don't. see that. a second thing. >> of course, that's. >> coming up. >> is, again. >> the shutdown. >> of the government. >> you know, he. >> trump has to get. >> all the republicans on board. >> you know the. >> dems are all going. >> to vote against it. >> so, you know he has to line. >> all those up. so i think. >> you know. >> that's that's factor one. >> but i. >> think, you know. >> the question. >> of whether. >> trump's going to with the tariffs are going to be reimposed and at. >> what level. >> and what kind.