♪ ♪ francine: welcome back to leaders with lacqua, i am francine lacqua.e of nine, gilbert left malaysia for scotland. he then got a degree from the university of aberdeen. we talked what keeps you up at night. it is not monetary policy because i only worry about things i have influence over. so what do you worry about? martin gilbert: running the business on a day-to-day business, and that is all about in your confidence with people. it ministers -- it matters more than -- clients want stability, so you have to keep your top team intact. i been working with the same team of four or five guys for 13 years, so we have a stable team. all aging of course, but they are still there. francine: what is the secret to retaining talent? every ceo tells a that is a top priority. we have an open plan with fund managers. i like to feel what is happening . i speak to people, and just generally listen. francine: you are approachable. martin gilbert: yeah. that is the key. it is the approachable -- francine: and have a sense of humor. martin gilbert: if you don't want a s

francine: thank you so much. we should all be worried about china's debt. that is the message from larry fink, the ceo of blackrock. he spoke to bloomberg earlier. >> we all have to be worried about it. but keep in mind, if the economy continues to grow 6%+, you can't grow at 6% and have your balance sheets grow faster. muche future, i would prefer seeing the economy grow at 6%, without the same time some form of deleveraging. francine: larry fink'commentss -- malcom scott joins us. it seems the pboc is gearing up for a bigger world. >> it does. it seems the pboc is among those people who are worried about china's that. broadening, looking at areas of formerly didn't. little nitty-gritty instances. credential framework it has set up in december, it has already been brought and to bring in new areas of formerly didn't look at, areas that the securities regulator would typically look at, like bonds and equities. it's also looking into cross-border flows, something that the banking regulator might not normally look

francine: of course.e to put in a pitch, but if they trust -- it has to be 30% of how you get chosen. >> it's a component. the one you have when you go for a large product, it is one of the major items. francine: you are a lot less italy centric at the moment. have you ever thought of moving headquarters away from italy? >> we think -- we now live in around 50 countries, and the u.s. for us is very important. it will be 30% of our revenue in the future. in italy, it will account for less than 20%. when we think about where we are national, we of course have different choices, but this is not on the table at the moment. we would like to invest and grow, to look at this investment in a very strong asset. the growth of the future is largely dependent. francine: how many projects will you unveil the next 12 months ?> a lot of them i imagine will be in the u.s.. twoe will be looking at quarters for around $9 billion, which means we have to make a large chunk of this in italy and the u.s.. the u.s. has been qui

♪ francine: welcome to "leaders" with me, francine lacqua.ur guest is martin gilbert from aberdeen asset management. a global investment manager focusing on emerging markets. gilbert's story begins in asia. born and raised in malaysia, he went to school in scotland at the age of nine, and he cofounded aberdeen in 1983. for 33 years, he has grown aberdeen into what of the biggest publicly traded asset managers with more than $400 billion of asset management. the group went public in 1991 and has offices in 26 countries, including malaysia. thank you so much for joining us. when you look back at the last 33 years, what would you have done differently? martin gilbert: definitely the crisis from 2002 to 2004. we almost bust the company. the reparation took years to recover. that was the darkest moment, appearing before to two treasury select committee's. i would not recommend that to anyone to aspire to. do you remember at the time thinking this was not going to work out? or did you always have that fire in the belly saying, if i keep my road, if

francine: at 5:00 a.m. tom: there you go. francine: tom . tom: our guest host, we are thrilled he is with us. i know francine wants to jump in. what the imf is doing in greece -- the commodity roll over, which goes into your overarching theory of secular global stagnation, certainly a weak america. what does commodities signal? >> you have talked about the commodities having gone down a couple minutes ago. two things. if you can do a chart with the global economic growth, and you do that with the dollar exchange rate, you would find all that you want to know about commodities. if you can forecast a dollar, global growth, you are done in terms of staying where commodities are. the problem is that the dollar has been appreciating massively since we 14. you had oil prices come down, commodities coming down. the dollar weaken/ . if the fed increases interest rates anytime soon which i doubt,, and if the rates go up, once again the dollar goes up and the commodities get hit. this has been a huge deal -- we thank the team at hsbc. i'm sorry, that'

francine: yeah. that is an extreme the important chart, especially as the elections are somewhat let's say controversial or interesting. probably just as interesting as the u.s. presidential election. this is my charter picked toda y. in white, the price of brent. in purple, the brent moving average. in blue, the 200 day average. the average price of brent c rude is set to rise -- that's a golden cross. that is to be we seen as a sign of bullishness. now, we are joined by a managing director and jpmorgan global market strategist. you so much for coming on. let's start with you. i do not know how much you look at currencies, but we talk about goldman sachs saying that expect the dollar to rise. overall, is this going to be the big theme? are traders going to nowhere -- it is inward looking. every single major economies looking inwards. >> what is really remarkable if you look at the period since the crisis has been how much of major currencies have moved against each other. if you look at the dollar v

francine. francine: nejra cehic there.short is one of the big ideas of one of the hedge fund industries. billionaire stander could miller says bull market in stocks is done. oh-fer gold. -- go for gold. borderline phil state -- fail state. as john kasich follow ted cruz bowing out of the race, jeff gordon lack says prepare for debt. you are going to get a reagan response with donald trump. he promises a wall, ring jobs back -- bring jobs back, let's face it, trump is extremely comfortable with debt. let's introduce our guest. pau great to have you on the program. there are a lot of big ideas. there is uneasiness. equities need to have a little bit of a correction or he cannot go much further from here. pau: -- doe you go it hasee back up pau: been going up since the 11th of february. at the time when profit margins has been disappointing. there is a bit of catch to do. equity prices need to make sure they wait for those earnings to react. if the margins have been better, the expectations have been disappointing overall, ea

francine maclachlan london.hought the minister from the netherlands was blunt about greece after this conversation with the secretary. francine: he was. it goes back to the tension with the germans and other european countries. we go back to this austere yes debate. tom: an important conversation for the week. now, the difficult news from egypt. here is vonnie quinn. vonnie: investigators have the first clues of the missing egypt jetliner. some of the wreckage has been found. fromiscovery of the debris the plane and passenger's belongings have been found 180 miles off the coast of alexandria. last month -- suspects in last month's terrorist attacks will be questioned. he was arrested in belgium. british prime minister david cameron is trying to avoid a drama within the conservative party over referendum. cameron spoke to radio and suggested he might hold a debate with conservatives who want to leave the eu. and austria, the populist freedom party helps to leverage unhappiness over -- they have promised to way in

francine: welcome back.et's get to the bloomberg business flash with nejra cehic. ubea: apple has invested in r's china rival, dd. the platform handles more than 11 million rides sunday and serves about 300 million users. idi also counts alibaba among its investors. deutsche bank is to cut clients according to a report. citing unidentified persons close to the bank, the paper said it is accelerating plans to eliminate investment banking quires. clients bank has 65,000 , but most of them exist only on paper. royal dutch shell has shut all oil and gas wells flowing to its platform in the gulf of mexico after an oil spill. the company reported a sheen and 97 miles south of louisiana. the spill was estimated to be 2100 barrels. shall said they are mature fields and there is no drilling in the area. that is the bloomberg business flash. francine: let's talk more about central banks. denmark has lived with a subzero interest rate longer than any country in the world. speaking to bloomberg, central banks -- denmark

francine. francine: shares a higher after a beat estimates this morning.nings at friends' second -- france's second-biggest bank. the ceo described an awkward start. >> the start of the year was very awkward on the economy, oil price. in that environment which was very special, i think our performance is pretty strong. the decrease in market revenues is limited to 13%. our peers are progressively communicating, if we have seen a drop in equity revenues, on the other hand, the business has better revenue. we might remain in a pretty volatile environment. the end of our first quarter was better. let's think about the brexit. we can expect [indiscernible] carry on developing our model. with commercial success. >> the last earnings were on the rle target. it was at 7.1%. short-term? >>in what we said at the end of last year with the environment we expect. with the russian business, we are expecting -- [indiscernible] at the beginning of the year, a little above 11%. we keep this kind of objective in mind going forward. we think we can achieve that by for the t

paul's. ♪ francine: welcome to "francine: the pulse" at bloomberg headquarters. u.k. unemployment. unemployment rate in line with expectations, weekly earnings a touch weaker than expected, 2.1% for the month of march. minus twoaims change 400. let's check in quickly on the pound. overall a touch lower. -- s had tok: the economy did manage avoid a recession, games and consumer spending balancing the slide. estimates of economists we have surveyed at bloomberg, the october to december quarter was revised to -- detraction. the decline in capital spending suggests companies to remain reluctant to deploy their stock piles of cash and underscores the problem that japan has a long way to go before pulling three of this cycle of expansion just pulling free -- pulling free from this cycle of expansion. zero.d dotted line is you can see very clearly from this chart that japan has fluctuated between acceleration and contraction for the best part of that period. stories,one of the big reporting its second straight drop in annual earnings and announced its plan to save 100 million pounds a yea

francine: thank you so much.apanese prime minister shinzo abe has come out in support of britain's staying in the eu. spoke at a bilateral meeting with prime minister david cameron. >> japan clearly would prefer britain to remain within the eu. it is better for the world that britain stays in a strong eu. we want to see britain in europe be influential on the global stage, contributing to peace and stability, including in asia. francine: presumptive republican nominee donald trump has also weighed in on the subject, saying immigration in europe is one reason the u.k. would be better off exiting the eu. he made the comments on a fox news interview. meanwhile, a nationalist set for a third consecutive victory in scottish parliament has voters delivered mixed results in the final electoral test it for next month -- brexit referendum. assessment from rob hutton. still with us is stuart richardson. thank you so much for sticking around. rob, how much do these results tell us about brexit? that is the question everyone

francine? francine: thank you very much.ed air bagmaker takata held talks with buyers including k.k.r., according to a person familiar with the matter. earlier the company shares surged by the daily limb as reports of k.k.r.'s potential interest. let's get to our auto reporter in tokyo. craig, what do we know at the moment, how likely is it that it will be taken over by someone like k.k.r.? >> we know at this point that k.k.r. is one of the potential firms that has expressed interest or has had talks with takata and know they're not the only one. but at this point it's very, very early here to be talking about who is likely because there's just so many factors at play. we know takata has been linked to 60 million air bag recalls and that is before earlier this month the u.s. roughly doubled the the size of its recalls by as much as 40 million units so we'll probably see expansions in the rest of the world including here in japan and before this is all said and done, we'll see more than 100 millionaire bags replaced here. tha

francine: thank you so much. china's retail sales, industrial production, and fixed asset investment. let's head to beijing and tom orlik. tom, treat to have you on the program. a trio of mrs.. what does this tell us about the health of that country? well, the data over the weekend was disappointing, francine. on industrial output and other indicators you mentioned. it wasn't disastrous. china's overall gdp was around 7.1% year on year. a slight slowdown, not a complete collapse. i think what that underlines is that china's recovery is going to be faltering, is going to be week, and that underlines the importance for the government of continuing to provide stimulus support for the economy. francine: china's biggest ride healing at, didi, they are said to be considering a u.s. ipo. talk us through the details of that. dede might belike trying to escape the traffic jam of the mainland chinese ipo process and go to market in the united states as early as they can to raise the funds they need for the next stage of ex

♪ francine: welcome to "leaders with lacqua." i am francine lacqua.oday we are focusing on the banking industry. some banks were brought to their knees, standard chartered came out unscathed. in june 2015, bill winters was picked to turn the company around. as ceo, he sold 19 businesses and hired new management. he is no stranger to the banking world. he spent 26 years at jpmorgan. he was the co-ceo of his investor unit for about five years. he worked on regulation and started his own alternative asset management firm. in his first interview as ceo, he sat down with me exclusively. bill winters, thank you for speaking to bloomberg. it is such a pleasure to speak to you again. how are you settling in? bill: it's going well. the thing that attracted me in the first place is the great history, really exciting markets, clients that know the bank well and like the bank a lot. this was all my sense from the outside. i came knowing the plenty of problems as well. i knew there were problems and expected the external environment would be challenging. here we a

francine: welcome to "the pulse." i am francine lacqua. exclusive interview, it's talk about the future of italian banking. me henance minister told will restore confidence in the system. italy's most valuable bank created this year to help the country passed troubled lenders -- the country's troubled lenders -- always a pleasure to have you in studio. , theyou look at atlante original fairy dust is now gone and people are asking whether the fund is big enough, whether it can sustain all of the troubled banks. banking shares are down. what happens next? carlo: it is all europe, not just italy. is a clear that atlante solution. investors are not considering this like a real game changer but in reality and emily, we have three big issues -- in italy, we have three big issues. at atlante, we will solve the problem so no more banks below the ecb level. second point is the stock of net bad loans have significant collateral but mainly a problem of pricing. the instrument is set to create a market taking instrument in order to have -- market maki

francine: thank you so much.here with what we have just heard in terms of the main topics we need to look out for today. i just want to issue a correction. the ifo index is actually much worse than we were expecting. i had earlier said it was at 107. it is actually at 0101.6. this is applications because there is a sense -- this has implications that there is more concern about what the future of europe will bring. will keep a close eye on the ifo expectations index at 101.6. greece set to receive a further 10.4 billion euros in aid. they are committed to easing the nation's 321 billion euros of debt. >> i'm glad to be able to say the imf has expressed its intention to recommend to the funds board to approval financial arrangement before the end of the year. imf will go to the board on the basis of this agreement to be part again of that program, a support program for greece. >> i'ts an -- it's an important moment for greece after so much time. we have now in agreement not only on the review and the structural me

francine. francine: toyota's missed fourth-quarter estimates.an's largest company says that earnings could follow by as much as 35%. tokyo.o straight to jody, great to have you on the program. is it the only company saying such things echo jodi: -- things? jodi: it is the first one we have heard from that is making the yen argument. clear is suffering from a few other things. u.s. demand has stalled. it did have a few disruptions including the earthquake that affected its production. it is mostly the yen. francine: do we expect see other effects of the stronger yen? jodi: yes. the unit is not the only one that is in the situation. exporters who have benefited from a weak currency in the past three years which is been at the core of prime minister abe's .rogram to reignite the economy everybody is going to be seeing this, and interest -- a 10% increase. in the first quarter we are seeing the yen strength and 3.4%. francine: the japanese government is concerned. we had the finance minister talking. what has he been saying? placed u.s. has japan on

francine. francine: thank you so much market.tralia's basis points cut in interest rates were predicted by 12 of 27 economists surveyed by bloomberg. take a look at the aussie dollar. many in the market were not ready for the move. another currency on the move is the yen which is our chart of the hour and japan's currency has risen 5% in the last five days. boj's governor kuroda warned that the rally risks harming japan's economy. moretti.k with mauro we had a very vibrant conversation about global policy around the world. when you look at yen, do you feel less confident that central banks are in control of what is going on in worldwide growth? some investment with good exposure. we see good demand their. probably what the central bank did was to calm down the sustainedate to demand. -- to sustain demand. francine: you are looking at good deals. half of it valuation at but half growth. sustained demand. is there a difference between what markets are telling us that go and -- telling us? and the world you are seeing? mauro: there

francine: surprise. [laughter] francine: it is a month away. we may talk about it for the next three years. the imf has backed off and greece will get its next round of financial aid. it will allow the relief of more than $11 billion and they will take steps to ease the burden of the countries $58 billion in debt. they stood down after originally insisting that the program did not offer a path to fiscal sustainability. that leavingsays the european union could force austerity measures into the next decade. it says that russian may face a budget deficit if the country leaves the eu. that could lead to more spending cuts or higher borrowing. electricity prices in the u.k. may rise this winter when the el niÑo goes away. that will drive up energy demands. it will end the wind needed to power wind farms. it usually follows the el niÑo pattern. , the taliban has killed that a leader was killed in a drone strike. a u.s. attack along the border -- he will be replaced along -- will be replaced by one of his deputies. global news, 24 hours a day. powere

francine: thanks so much, nejra cehic. on to the markets. this is what european equities are doing. seeing a little bit of a rebound. financial markets in general showing signs of stabilizing after being zigzagged this week by a surge in expectation. this is a picture for the ftse, the dax, and the cac 40. i want to show you the price -- i don't know if we have gold, but brent crude at 49. that is also regaining a touch. the yuan headed for a third week of declines against the dollar. this is on the back of dollar strength, unaided speculations the u.s. will raise interest rates. we will get back to the markets and currencies with jane foley in just a second. first, let's update you on the egyptair flight from paris to cairo which disappeared over the mediterranean sea. as a search mission enters its second day, greek authorities have dismissed reports of finding debris from the jet. greg this cruise he is in paris. arexpected, a lot of things contradiction. we don't really have anything concrete. what we know is that debr

we will be right back. ♪ francine: welcome back. i'm francine lacqua in london. is in new york. we just spoke to the commerzbank cfo. after the earnings, the biggest loser on the stoxx 600. that stock losing 10%. we are back with james bevan. james, when you look at commerzbank, very clear the cfo was treading very carefully. he could not call the end of the volatility. he said, they will take actions in due course because they have a new ceo. james: when one cuts up the numbers, what was disappointing was they were light on interest income, light on commission income. the marginally were marginally numbers were marginally better. however, investors are holding the faith because commerz has provided excellent exposure to retail in germany. i encourage people to have a look at venovia, a residential company, a property company in germany. i was suggesting if you want to play recovery, that is where you should be looking. tom: within the shifts we see in markets today, can janet yellen ignore international market action? james: absolutely not. i think the reason th

i'm francine lacqua.quickly let's check on the boards because we are seeing it's all about what janet yellen will say later on at harvard university. index practically unchanged. they are waiting for chair yellen to speak. streak.pping a 7 day let's get straight to first word news. major economies have strengthened the resilience to avoid falling into another crisis. also says that monetary policy is not enough for spurring growth. abe failed in his bid to have leaders warn of the risk of a after heonomic crisis presented documents indicating there was a danger of the world careering into the crisis on the crisis of the 2008 lehman shock. out china asdged the world's second-largest supplier of external credit in a decade. japan, the top creditor since 1991 remains in cold position. stay with japan, consumer prices have dropped for a second months. insumer prices fell 0.3% april. the lack of growth will intensify pressure on the bank of japan to consider further monetary stimulus after governor kuroda disa

francine, jump in here. we talk about asset return, and what's amazing when you look at these horses, how much are these horses worth, and how much can they expect to win? i know in a year they can win up to $2 million, $3 million. how much does it take to buy one of these horses? >> sometimes as little as $10,000, $15,000 if you get lucky. in this race, there's a horse that they paid $2.2 million for. that doesn't give the horse an advantage when he's running. he's just bred well. you know, sometimes that will, you know, sometimes that will, people just give the that watch thinking that that's the best horse because they paid the most money. tom: i got 100 bucks. what do die? >> ok, this is it. 20 on more spirit. bob baffert is going to try to make it two in a row. he won with american pharoah. he's going to come right back. did he that in 1997 and 199 with silver charm. he's going to try to do it again. i want to make a $1 trifecta box. these are the numbers, 3, 6, 10, 17, and 18. that's a $60 bet. tom: th

francine: e.u. the fact that they, like the rest of the banks of the world, have to deal with an uncertain china, brexit, and negative rates. jes staley was most interesting when he said that this noble experiment, talking about qe and negative rates, may come to an end. he hopes the fed will normalize sooner rather than later. tom: the headlines on deutsche bank this morning, as well, on their noble experiment. here is never championship in london -- here is nejra cehic in london. nejra: a new report out this one on the egyptair flight. an examination of human remains from the flight points to an explosion on the plane, according to the associated press. we have no other details for now. investigators have been pummeled about what brought the plane down. messages received from the plane moments before it crashed suggested a fire, a bomb, or an electrical malfunction. it is a boost for david cameron and his campaign to stay in the european union. a new poll shows older voters are switching to his si

francine?n you look at the price of oil, inching towards $50, is this a significant level? we have seen a lot of disruptions in nigeria. goldman sachs said they did not expected to balance out so quickly. philip: i was watching the hour before when you are talking about the price being influenced by nigeria. there is also venezuela. no one talks about venezuela. in this way the has been the thece on the supply -- hidden force on the supply. cropder nigeria, a there'll. we will probably lose another 200,000-300,000 barrels per day. we get the numbers because the major companies are producing there. on themuela, we relied to tell us what production is. they don't. oil you work on how much they are processing at refineries and how much they are exporting, the numbers do not add to what they claim they are producing. their supply is going down as well. goldman sachs has come out with a higher price number. francine: it goes back to the main question. we have been trying to figure it out since the s

francine: he certainly does. we will keep a close eye on the agm and get back to matt miller with breaking news. matt miller on the ground at the deutsche bank agm in frankfurt. let's get to the latest on the egypt airplane that disappeared. we are joined on the phone from cairo by bloomberg's north african bureau chief. if you look at the up-to-date situation, it we are having conflicting messages about what could've happened to this plane. are you hearing anything about report suggesting there had been an accident, that this plane crashed off one of the greek islands? >> right now to egyptian officials have not confirmed anything. they have been very pointed in keeping allthey're options open at this stage and that there is no official confirmation that there was a crash. they don't know what brought it down or what happened to the plane, i should say. they are classifying it as missing. and that is pretty much all they are willing to say. there had been an earlier report, or statement from egyptair saying ther

♪ francine: i am francine lacqua in london. tom keene in new york.looking at central bank monetary divergence. let's get to the bloomberg first .ord news with nejra cehic u.s. authorities are ramping up their part of the corruption investigation involving brazil's state owned oil company. the petrobras probe has already lead to arrests in brazil. the u.s. is looking into more than one dozen operations. it has been called the most secure financial messaging system and the world. cyber crooks have a tax it again. swiss is used by banks to move money around the world. unnamedck involved an bank. they stole $81 million from the central bank of bangladesh. germany is pressuring the international monetary fund over greece. germany wants the imf to accept assurances that the debt burden will be addressed in the future. the imf is under pressure to isept greek a sturdy that -- greek austerity that is less than what they want. sailors were held by iran for 15 hours before being released. the executive commander of their unit has been relieved of the navy pers

francine? earnings coming out better than expected in terms of earnings per share and they are guiding forward, earnings-per-share for the year, they believe will be between three dollars 65 and $3.77. the most important about merck, they have said they are looking for opportunities for health-care mergers as the collapse of the merger between pfizer and allergan has been raising questions about tieups in this industry. we are hoping to have more news about merck and following the news conference later on. a picture for equities, three hours into the european trading session, up, energy leading a lot of these gains and this is a picture for turkish lira after the prime minister of turkey may resign. ♪ tom: good morning. francine look what an tom keene. -- francine look while an tom keene. the euro churn. remember he gives away a little bit. renminbi gives away a little bit. tomorrow, interesting to see how markets react. francine: you are not giving me much emerging market currency chat so i wi

francine: stephen is right. difficult to price and is right.-- steven it is difficult to price and difficult to know how markets will react. i a lot of travel stocks are under pressure. 18.5% lower. they were already worried about .ither a tax, 2016 in general any kind of uncertainty regarding airplanes as do speculation adds to a little bit of a dampener on the stocks. tom: i would point out separate from the egypt air tragedy, oil is south. most of that is in the short-term on dollar strength. we can touch on that with mr. saywell in a moment. francine: we continue with travel and leisure stocks. we will talk about security with the eurostar international ceo, nicolas petrovic. he has taken a lot of measures since we have had the geopolitical uncertain d. -- uncertainty. he will be coming up next in an exclusive interview 10 minutes from now. ♪ francine: egypt is deploying naval ships to search for the paris fromoute two cairo. we just heard a news conference from the french foreign minister . he said he had j

francine: i agree. it gives us a glimpse of what their currency valuation, whether it be devaluation or not is going further. european stocks under pressure. i want to show you basic resources down 2.8%. bhp, after they brazilian prosecutor filed a $44 billion civil suit over the november dam rupture. i want to put the ruble in there for good measure. weakening the most amongst currencies worldwide. tom: i want to go over to the terminal now and look at our political economics but our economic politics. we have shown this chart before. productivity out today. this is the back story, is this decline in the efficiency of our nation. productivity moving over 13 years fomr a p -- from a peak of 4%. presidential moving average, down to here, to where we are. this is what mrs. clinton and mr. trump have to focus on. vonnie: this is the conundrum for the fed. the month-to-month data is so up and down. you can tell where the trend is going. tom: a shocking chart. i know you picked up on this. francine: this is

francine?we are seeing parity on brent and wti. currently it is at 49. you can see goal down. it was gaining earlier on. are waiting markets to hear what janet yellen has to say. it is 6:15 u.k. time -- it is at 6:15 u.k. time. james sweeney is with us from credit suisse, who did quite good work on inflation and disinflation a year ago, 14 months ago. we recalibrate before an american three-day weekend with mr. sweeney of credit suisse. let's do the u.s. economy in a bit, and we will go to japan and the g-7 meetings. what is the risk of global recession. am i worried? that weou have to know are in a slump. we have been in a slump for around six quarters. we have had flat growth in global trade and global industrial production. that slump relates to chinese growing investment, and sector shock there that has created a lot of asset prices, fx volatility, and credit market risk. tom: you do this so well with your work. finance to thef economy. chair yellen will do that today. is she going to speak

francine?g at some of the european banks, and of course i am here in ceric -- in zurich. i'm here in prices are climbing toward $44 a barrel of oil. metals clawing back some of the losses from yesterday. and the finance minister says they are -- tom: let's look at one of the great indicators, the canary in the iron ore mine. this is the vaunted commodity rally. looking back a good seven years, eight years back. here is that decline, china on its back. there is the rally. we have not rolled over yet. he does there is so much gloom out there within punditry, one of our themes this morning, our guest host this hour to synthesize all this, as he does so well from blackrock, the chief investment strategist for headaches, jeffrey rosenberg. what is your biggest headache now? jeffrey go did you invite me on because of the gloom? tom: we had neil dutta on optimism. i think you can synthesize what is going on, given all the gloom research notes. the world is coming to an end, did you not know that? jeff

francine: i am francine lacqua in london, tom keene in new york.e getting live pictures, we see the london eye as we await the queen's speech. on is expected to deliver driverless vehicles and other bills that will be debated as she sets out the legislative agenda for the u.k. let's get to the bloomberg first word news. bernie sanders has won the democratic presidential primary in oregon and hillary clinton claiming victory in kentucky, a race still too close to call. clinton is getting closer to winning the nomination. on june 7ig tests are when four states hold primaries. wildfires and japan are threatening oil operations again. evacuatedrgy has three sites it was restarting in northern alberta. canada has lost about one million barrels of production a day. opposition leaders have called on followers to pay for the swedes again today to force a recall election. then as well a is suffering from food andtages of inflation is in triple digits. there is likely to be a confrontation in the senate and house over the zika virus. the senate has voted to

francine: thank you so much.e had a great conversation with mark gilbert he did not pull any punches. week oncatch that this friday evening. we talked about brings it in the risks out there. lehman likeout moments. he said that's not going to rexit happens.b tom: i haven't looked at deutsche bank chart in ages. it's not a pretty sight. of residence, the wall street journal reports people concretetalk about terms of a proposal by the monetary fund where they say these will be the rules. paul joins us from the london school of economics. quickly, you have said for years there must be a long-term debt extension to help greece. are we finally there? paul: i hope so. the imf has been pushing for that for white some time. they will have to convince the germans to go along. happens, this will be the final debt relief it is essential for greece to survive. tom: how interesting is the rate if they postpone the debt for years in a negative rate environment, which is clearly what europe is in. how important is a coupon? is

francine: may 2.razilian president dilma rousseff may be on her way out as the majority of senators vote in favor of impeachment. the debate is ongoing and we have live pictures coming in. it is quite heated and you can see the emotion. why is the vote taking so long? quitet we were not expecting was that each of the senators would take 15 minutes to talk to walk through their position of ahead of the vote, so that has added a lot of time on to the session. however, we have just heard we are expecting the attorney , andal to stand up next that will sort of begin to signal the end of the process. i think in the next hour or so we will have an actual vote. it does seem like the result is a foregone conclusion. francine: what do we know about the rest of the day? president rousseff will talk at some point. john: we have heard from local media that she has cleared her desk supposedly. that is an indication of where she thinks this is going. she is due to address the nation at 10:00 a.m. so she could resig

francine: why would you take the risk?don't really know what any trade agreement would look like or how anyone else would react very. jon: done nastily, we will have some kickback from people going rotten swines, the brits. a lot of that is fear there will be other referendums. they have not, for example, fixed the treaty with a brokerage over the european and britain bailouts. because they did not dare risk the national referendums. there is a fear amongst the ruling class in europe that there would be other referendums. of comingh the risk out? the balance of probabilities is the future. it is better out they had in. you live in a country where growth is something which only the older generation remembers. it hasn't succeeded for you. maurice: the older generation remembers higher growth, but it also remembers huge deficit. which cost prices in unemployment at the time to the generations. this brought us too many bad things. thebecause it touched point, you and italy, i can in the area of ander balance anti-environment,

francine: minimal.: right now as we begin our -- a bloomberg surveillance, let's go to a news briefing. nejra: thank you, tom. the european union is escalating a spat with turkey. mustresident says turkey toughen its anti-terror law if it wants visa free travel in europe for turks. the president signals he would scrap a landmark ref unique dutch refugee deal if they do not loosen travel requirements. in france, strikes at oil refineries might spread today. the union has called for electrical workers to go on strike. they are protesting the president's label reforms -- labor reforms. the egyptair crash is spurring calls for changes in how it relates get flight data. sophisticated submarines may be the only hope of finding the data and voice recorder in the mediterranean. technology should allow the planes to strain the information real-time by satellite. ,he hedge funds from tony james he says the hedge fund industry might learn a quarter of its assets in the next year. he told bloomberg tv canada "it is

francine: thank you so much. thiam talking to francine there about what they will do in the future. you are now watching "on the move." it is 7:28 in london and 8:28 in berlin. we are 31 minutes away from the market open. i'm guy johnson and i'm sitting next to caroline hyde. as we have been hearing, it is "cut, cut, cut" for credit suisse. q2 is looking subdued. eeasy jet revenue came in below estimates. we will be speaking with ceo carolyn mccall shortly. and miners are in a hole. ware we heading back to those january lows? as i say, we are not 30 minutes away from the european open. going to takeopen us? let me take you to the bloomberg and show you where the fair value calculations point this morning. it looks like we will be a positive start in europe. the euro stocks is up by .6%. the with the 100 is up by .5%. by .5%.tse 100 is up it looks like the dax is going to outperform. i want to show you this as well. these are the future is out of singapore. this is a year chart. we have been sliding lower, but thi

francine lacqua is there with a guest. francine: thank you so much, mark.will be talking to charles evans of the fed. to say that pleased the global chief economist at hsbc joins us to talk about monetary policy. joiningu so much for us. are we finally going to have diverging economic policy? is the fed ready to raise rates? >> the fed has already raised rates once. the question is about how much more can it raise them and over what pace. i think it is aware of the risks associated with raising rates for the rest of the world. we've had fed governors over the there'ssuggesting that still the possibility on the table, but we've got several weeks to go, another set of payrolls, and there are risks out there. francine: it is unclear whether june is a live meeting or not. mohamed el-erian saying the markets are not taking it seriously enough. only's a 10% probability that something will happen in june. does it make sense, raising in june given that we have the u.k. referendum just a couple days after? janet: the referendum is one factor that could potentially i

francine: could brexit be a lehman brothers like moment? ?t impact pier: it would impact the european construction. it benefits from european integration like all other european countries. if brexit happens, if the referendum delivers the decision to leave europe, we will enter a medium-term several years period of continued negotiation, which on how to disentangle the u.k. from europe and europe from the u.k. we know when we start that we do not know how we end. padoan, thearlo italian finance minister with francine lacqua. soybeans,arkets and with a little bit of boj. do not miss it. ♪ vonnie: it is time now for our global battle of the charts where we take a look at some of the most telling chart of the day and what they mean for investors. you can access all of these charts on bloomberg by running the function at the bottom of your's green. kicking things off, matt miller. matt: this morning i was showing mark barton in the world house bearish everybody has gotten. we have a number of things happening in june like the brexit, like the fed

francine: why would you take the risk? don't really know what any trade agreement would look like or how anyone else would react very. jon: done nastily, we will have some kickback from people going rotten swines, the brits. is fear there will be other referendums. they have not fix the treaty when they broke it over the european bailouts. didn't dare risk the national referendums. there's a fear amongst the ruling class in europe that there would be other referendums. is it worth the risk of coming out? the balance of probabilities is the future is better out than in. you live in a country where growth is something which only the older generation remembers. it hasn't succeeded for you. maurice: the older generation members higher growth, it also whichers huge dissidents, cost the unemployment at the time to the generations. mario: future generations are now they are. effect of not having some fiscal discipline in a rather inventive and imaginative country and politics, brought us to many bad things. because you touched th

francine lacqua on the austrian minister. francine?to ask , but i will tell you, i think it is significant because we often talk about the fact that it is difficult to match up all this political uncertainty, and how we deal with the refugee crisis, so this, the austrian chancellor stepping down after a very middle ground governing party, social democrats have lost more and more votes to, frankly, anti-immigration freedom party candidates. this is one of the first situations that we have seen in europe leading -- leaning not only to the right but to anti-immigration. tom: lakshman achuthan is with us. he had a call for recession, did not get it. he was widely criticized what he actually -- he absolutely nailed the vector of the temper -- of the tempered nominal gdp. --there still the sluggish the sluggishness you called for years ago? worstan: 2012 was the non-recession in u.s. history. tom: it feels like that right now for a lot of americans. if you have a high school degree or higher, eight out of nine have not seen any recovery out

francine: this is one of the issues we tried to discuss.e started at the bank less than a year ago. five months into the job he announced a huge capital raising exercise together with an overhaul, a big restructuring of the bank. he almost did a profit warning and had to cut even deeper. the investment bank has been a lot of questions about the capital, on whether he needed to raise more. i asked him whether he also was concerned about capital and whether it would be enough to sell 30% of the swiss bank? he says he is confident that is enough and he pointed to the numbers today, 11.4. he says that is not bad, especially given the turmoil we saw in the markets and credit suisse has endured. mark: francine lacqua in zurich who spoke to the credit suisse chief executive. joining us now, james bevan, chief investment officer. poundss manage 6 billion at ccl a. thank you for joining us. i made a chart just for you. it is credit suisse versus ubs. it has been normalized, so the column to your right shows the percentage decline in 2016, clearly co

francine: janet yellen has been extremely dovish.a lot more hawkish in the next couple of weeks or months, what does that do to emerging markets and debt? bill: i think emerging markets are better prepared for this growing great differential than in a year or two years ago. but last year, and the volatility this year, a little bit of jitter, stimulus jitters in the market. the fed has to be very careful. we had a rate increase, i expect to have another, maybe two more. i think the market can handle it. francine: are you concerned about brexit? bill: it's one of those unfathomable. should the u.k. vote to exit the eu, life will go on as it did before. there will be a tremendous amount of conjecture about what may happen. that is destabilizing. even if the u.k. votes to stay in, if it is a close call, there could be some element of uncertainty with the matters. if the u.k. leaves, that would be an adverse scenario. there is risk that creates tensions in europe that will this destroy it. ♪ ♪ ramy: you are watching "bloomberg best." i am

francine: yeah.ss it's a little bit of relief after a tough january and march, where he had to take more cuts to the investment bank. today, that loss is not as big as expected. this is what a lot of analysts and investors are liking. he seems to be quite prudent, certainly in terms of market volatility. he says, look, we are not over the worst you. -- the worst yet. everything he says he has put in place is on track. he has only been on the job for about 10 months, when he unveiled this huge, huge strategy overhaul back in november, also raising capital. it seems like the main points of regulation, the litigation capital cost cuts, and job losses, he announced those targets and they are all now in line. that is what he says. guy: thank you very much. francine lacqua joining us out of zurich. stock trade higher this morning, breaking it down it has suffered. the whole sector in switzerland has been under pressure. saying, toughs times. let's bring back the head of investment. we're hearing it from cs

francine: carlos ghosn led renault's rescue of nissan.e will now be expected to do the same thing with mitsubishi. >> indeed he will. there has been a lot of confidence shown in ghosn. he has a great track record in combining traditional japanese companies which renault was. when he bailed them out in 1999, he was able to turn the company around in a matter of years and bring them to where they are today. so there is a lot of confidence he can work the same kind of deal with mitsubishi motors. francine: what does nissan see in mitsubishi motors that it actually likes? >> firstly, they have a tie up to supply nissan with mini vehicles that sell well here in japan. at the same time, mitsubishi motors has great sales in thailand and indonesia. there is good electric field goal technology mitsubishi motors has pioneered. jonathan: bayer expected to be expiring a potential bid for u.s. rival monsanto. it would create the world's largest supplier of chemicals. at one point, monsanto went after syngenta. then they missed out. chem china came in.

francine: do we intimate they are prepared to pay a price?on: i have rarely seen such a friendly rejection from the target company. on the one hand, it says it undervalues risk, but it says it respects bayer and sees the rationale for the deal. so it has very obviously invited to them with a higher price. bayer has to ask itself if we are going to stretch the balance sheet, do we want to raise more equity, sell assets? i think, if i had to guess, bayer does not table the first offer first, there is room to bump. scarlet: the dow up more than 200 points, u.s. stocks close staying near the best level of the session, joining a rally we saw in european markets. if you break the s&p 500 into 24 interest groups, everyone climbed. the worst performer was energy. that's still gained one half of 1%. alix: it feels like a risk-on day. we had the home sales that were killer, but oliver pointed out before we got to air it started overnight. it is hard to find a specific catalyst. oliver: definitely helps when you open the day with european indexes across

francine: do we intimate they are prepared to pay a price?ely seen such a friendly reduction from the target company. on the one hand, it says it undervalues risk, but it says it respects bayer and sees that rationale for the deal. so it is very obviously invited to them with a higher price. bayer has to ask itself if we are going to stretch the balance sheet, do we want to raise more equity, sell assets? i think, if i had to guess, bayer does not table the first offer first, there is room to bump. scarlet: the dow up more than such points, u.s. stocks close saying near the best level of the session, joining a rally we saw in european markets. if you break the s&p 500 into 24 interest groups, everyone climbed. the worst performer was energy. that's still gained one half of 1%. alix: it feels like a risk-on day. we had the home cells that were killer, but oliver pointed out before got to air it started overnight. it is hard to find a specific catalyst. oliver: definitely helps when you open the day with european indexes across the board, on th

francine: it will sell 30% of the swiss unit?if you look at the swiss unit, it went from 14% to 16%. that is one of our top performers. we were able to increase profits by 12%. francine: you are confident you don't need to raise capital other ways? >> we are in a good position. we are in a reasonable, predictable scenario. we are in good position. we came from 10 point 00%. this is the highest we have ever had. francine: what does that mean for your dividend? we distribute about 40%. have very we attractive investments. in a country where interest rates are negative, 16% is very good. 24% international is very good. we are relocating capital. that is value creating. they're very keen to return. it's important that we continue to invest in very attractive global commodities. with: he was talking francine lacqua. they are returning capital to shareholders. i want you to take a quick look inside my bloomberg. we've got a chart on credit squeeze. -- credit suisse. over the last several years, pay attention to what happened in this th