francine?he leader of northern ireland's democratic unionist party said prime minister boris johnson confirmed his rejection of a northern ireland backstop. a group of m.p.'s said the exchange is to move talks forward. sterlings' -- volatility is at high levels. first of all, can you put everything in context? we had pretty good g.d.p. figures for the month of judgment for the u.k. but what's the trend, are we going to an investment or is it less than it would have been had we nod had this uncertainty. >> it's staggering how the u.k. government does in the uncertainty of brexit. but the trend is sort of going down as long as we continue to have that uncertainty and in order to see that would be exacerbated if the u.k. would have for the hot plexity or no deal plexity route. francine: what does it mean for how you set policy, this used to be a emerging market policy and if you don't have a brexit exit, you don't have probability on that but maybe have to lower rates with high deductions. >> it's

francine? francine: thanks so much, sebastian.oser to a new government after a coalition was made between the five-star movement. 66% say they're in favor and 51% of five star members backed the idea. the prime minister is now set to form a new government though it's not clear what five star politicians will do. with us is james from standard investment. we won't have jeremy and not talk about italy. is it a government in crisis play or the reverse side of the brexit play? >> from a market perspective, an e. exrmplet b. play and is the only thing driving things at the moment which is the euro zone economy and the aggregate looks incredibly weak and they're waiting in the wings too take in the high yields. but in terms of what's going on under the hood in italy, i'm exposed, the italian commodity and even in 2017 when we saw young growth we couldn't get above 1% and there's still a huge number of stock of nonperforming loans on the bank sheet and now you're talking zero growth and 3% deficit on g.d.p. and politics which unfortunate

francine?ay dalio, billionaire founder of the world's largest hedge fund says there is a 25% chance of a recession this year and in 2020. he adds that when the downturn comes, central banks won't necessarily have the power to reverse it. 2007, it was pretty easy, i think, to calculate that there were these debts that would come due. that there was not an adequate amount of funding. crisisthat sort of debt is something we anticipated and were positioned well for. when i go through those calculations, it's not the same. in other words, the amount of maturing debt and that whole problem is not the same. it looks more like a gradual squeeze having to do with quite a lot of debt of a certain type, but with that, pension liabilities and health care, particularly as that produces a greater squeeze. and so larger deficits the amount of promises that we have our large, but they're going to be coming at a more gradual pace and it is going to produce a squeeze. , when you don't have monetary policy, being

francine?e: let's check in on the biggest stock movers. >> i want to start with this taking stake around autos around town. discussing combining the two businesses. up nearly 2% this morning. it is rated from neutral by credit suisse and astrazeneca near 2.5% after the third trial of one of their drugs that could help reduce heart failure. it is now headed for rapid uptake given the stellar results . annmarie hordern with your main stock movers. stay with surveillance, plenty coming up. discuss what is sustainable next. macri fighting to survive. this is bloomberg. ♪ francine: this is "bloomberg surveillance." i am francine lacqua. let's get straight to the bloomberg this is flash. >> they keep the boeing 737 max grounded according to dow jones. officials across europe, brazil and u.s. complaint boeing failed so it is a question about the jet. in macau, but casino revenue dropped. highrollers have been cautious. news fort is bad macau. bank.s biggest emirates says it seeks approval from shareho

tom, francine. francine: thank you.ointed alison rose as ceo, the first woman to head the u.k. lender. she is and rbs veteran, and she will take over from of going chief executive russ mcewen in december. joining us now is bloomberg ben ritchiemnist, from aberdeen asset management, and janet mui from cazenove financial. great to have you with us. so she has been groomed for the job quite a while, much is taking over november 1, the day after the brexit deadline. >> absolutely. as you rightly pointed out, this was expected, but this is still striking that one of the top u.k. lenders will not only have a female ceo but also a female cfo, an exception in the banking world. this looms large, and the bank is grappling with competition in the mortgage market and uncertainties in the smaller and medium-sized corporate sector, which it is heavily exposed to. francine: how will she measure success? the rbs share price is different, they are still 62% owned.ent was she able to get rid of that, or -- you need to find a plan b if l

francine? francine: thank you so much.ull scale of the damage of the deal brexit could cause u.k. has been revealed. warned ofyellowhammer food and fuel shortages, disruptions to the supply chain, public disorder if the u.k. crashes out of the eu without an agreement. the scenario undermines prime minister boris johnson's assertion that the u.k. can actually cope with a no deal brexit. mp's have passed a lot intended to prevent the prime minister from forcing through a no deal brexit. he says he is ready to do it anyway. trevor greetham is still with us. rosalind. is how do i read this yellowhammer? this is kind of worst-case scenario. it could be better, it could be worse. >> there is nothing incredibly startling in this report. some of it was coming out already last month. you put it all together in a document boris johnson did not want released. andpart of it was redacted reports say that involves oil prices. it really undermines his assertions that a no deal exit would not be the equivalent, essentially, to one apocaly

francine? francine: thank you so much.ns this morning from its highest level in six weeks. that follows a commitment from saudi arabia's new oil minister to output cuts from the kingdom. let's get straight over to manus cranny at the world energy conference in abu dhabi. manus? >> thank you very much. i am joined by the vice chair of ihs market. always great to get your insight on the market. what do you think his game theory is going to be for this new saudi playbook in oil? >> i think there are two things that are moving ahead on the ipo, that's very clear. he also made it clear that the minister is different from his business past. that he's a regulator of the oil industry, not the person chiefly in charge. that's a strong message to the financial community. in terms of personality, he has been in the ministry for 30 years, the deputy minister. i have known him, seen him in all sorts of international settings. when saudi arabia was joining the wto, he was the man in washington to negotiate it. he's very familiar on the

tom and francine?uncker are holding their first face-to-face talks over a working lunch. a breakthrough is unlikely. but the british prime minister is said to be pushing hard for a deal in the next month. let's get a straight dude -- let's get straight to luxembourg. first of all, if a breakthrough is unlikely, are we going to see a dance about the possibility of a deal within the next four weeks? >> good morning, francine. what you see behind me is the restaurant where they are meeting for the first time. they coming face-to-face. the prime minister said he was going to -- he was not going to meet the e.u. negotiating team unless substantial changes were made to the deal. they both said they were cautiously optimistic. the europeans were very cautious. they did not see the level of detail that we wanted, given the time to seal the deadline. then you had communications behind the scenes telling us that prime minister will be very clear today that he is not going to ask for more time passed october 17.

francine? francine: thanks so much. more cuts are coming.c decides today with a 25 basis point cut broadly anticipated. we spoke exclusively with the bank for international settlement general governor and about the challenges facing central bankers. >> the real conundrum monetary policy faces right now is that monetary policy has been tremendously accommodative. but weat low interest still are not fully their terms of economics. >> that's what i wanted to get at. , as itmonetary policy did in the past, engender a recovery? the toolkit seems to be bearing for many -- barren for many of these banks. >> a little more can be done. facing theare situation of inflation still below the objective. growth is still not where it should be, but the effectiveness of monetary policy is not absolutely guaranteed. therefore, it needs to be complement by policy instruments. >> those other policy instruments you refer to would be the fiscal side of things. >> absolutely. and in various country by country, naturally, but telling, what kind of measures would yo

taylor, francine? francine: thank you so much. those of you on radio, pictures of riksbank governor stefan ingves speaking right now. a little bit later on, we will of course interview him. that's about one hour and 15 minutes. what we have heard so far from the sweetest central bank is that they are sticking to their commitment to hikes but possibly at a lower pace. rick lacaille is still with us. i want to talk about negative rates and the central bank actually trying to hike when everything around them is going more dovish. will they be able to deliver? rick: they have had a few episodes like that in the past where they have hiked rates for domestic reasons and as had to be reversed. the conditions in the nordics are a little bit different. as germany slows down, they are going to look more german as the year unfolds. hiking rates at this moment is a tactic.ctic -- brave francine: i was having a conversation with a banker yesterday that was saying that we are not realizing that because negative rates are getting more negative,

francine? francine: thank you so much.e over boris johnson's decision to suspend parliament reaches its final day in court today. areprime minister's lawyers due to reveal what his government will do if it loses. that outcome could immediately restrict his brexit options and him.mine there is no news conference this time around. still with us, simon wells from hsbc and loic fery from chenavari investment managers. retail sales worse than expected but the economy seems to be holding ok. simon: yes, a pretty much wipes out last month's rise. you like all the other u.k. data. food ahead of the previous deadline. that started to unwind, driving some weakness. the u.k. consumer a bit of a microcosm for the challenges the bank of england and we all face. consumer confidence is very weak. the income picture, the job picture is very strong. we see retail sales moving around within that. it has softened to a slower underlying trend. on top of that, the household savings rate is very low. that would be another sign of confidence. it

francine? francine: thanks so much.ario draghi has delivered his final stimulus package after overcoming an unprecedented result -- revolt from the center. he sounded the alarm over the growth outlook of the euro area. remain tilted to the downside. we still think the probability of a recession with the euro area is small but it has gone up in view of the weakening economic outlook and the continued prominence of downside risk. governments with fiscal space should act in an effective and timely manner. we have a mandate. we will pursue price stability and we don't target exchange rates. period. , we have this morning is being to one of the dissenters of the stimulus package, the austrian central bank governor. in an exclusive interview, we asked him if he thought the decision to ease was a policy mistake. very intensive but also constructive discussion at the council. everybody listened to the others. which onea discussion tries to take the arguments of the others seriously. it was a push back, but it was a constructive

tom, francine? francine: thank you so much.ia saying that they're prepared to inject liquidity if needed. for more on the price of oil, for more on drone attacks over the weekend that wiped out 5% of global oil production, let's get to yousef, our bloomberg daybreak middle east anchor in saudi arabia. first of all, when you look at the impact it had, how difficult is it to actually measure the impact, and how fast can they get that roduction back online? >> francine, that's the key question as we await more details until coming hours. the timeline is such that we are looking ahead to a press conference potentially in the western part of saudi arabia. we could get more information on the extent of the damage. and then a tour of the damaged infrastructure. that's not confirmed just yet. in any case, it is going take longer than expected. the oil market caught off guard, balls the initial guidance from saudi aram coast, were they going to recover quite a bit of this, and now it's looking like it's going to be a struggle. francine:

francine? tom?ts in hong kong as demonstrators clash with police for a 17th week of unrest. the demonstrators set a subway station entrance a blaze and through -- and threw petrol bombs. joining us from hong kong is karen leigh, bloomberg's greater china editor. i know it is a late day for you. when you look at some of the demonstrations from yesterday that were extremely violent, how is hong kong bracing for the october 1 protest? karen: this is a weekend that got a lot of people -- people have been waiting for a number of weeks to see what is going to happen over this very sensitive few days. this weekend marks the anniversary, the previous pro-democracy in the city, on -- and tomorrow marks the 70th anniversary of comedies -- of communist party rule in china. we saw a really violent images. we saw police fire what they said were hundreds of rounds of tear gas. more than 100 people were arrested. asple are looking at that meeting on a metric of what we can expect tomorrow. tom: four years ago, fiv

francine: thomas cook collapses. the writ is government promises -- the british government promises the biggest repatriation. boris johnson meets merkel, akron on the sideline of the yuan general assembly -- of the u.n. general assembly. welcome to "bloomberg surveillance." i am nejra cehic. let's get a check in on the markets. pmi data for the euro area. look at european equities. we are trading down .8%. the forecast was 52 so it is a miss on the composite. we are already seeing euro weakness ahead of this so we might see a leg lower in the euro. european equities on the back foot which is a divergence what we have seen with u.s. futures. mixed messages over the weekend over whether there is optimism or pessimism coming in over trade talks. .he drop of the 10-year yield brent crude is coming off the highs from earlier. concerns around iran and the speed of saudi a ramp -- saudi aramco. we are live at the labour party conference to speak to the director general. that interview with carolyn fairbairn is that 9:45. vi

francine? kong and on your markets, but let get to the bloomberg business flash. viviana: credit suisse expected to decide on the fate of top executives indicated in a surveillance probe. they had a former wealth management had a qualcomm followed. next week, the board will meet to review the findings. wework cutting costs, selling the chief executive's private jet and side businesses. this comes after the company postponed its ipo over concerns over valuation. wework could-- have job cuts. peloton slumping on it debut, joining a long line of startups that slump on their first day. that is your bloomberg as ms. lasch. -- business flash. tom: russ koesterich with us, with blackrock. we number of ways to go, but have to look at the markets going into october, the mystery of earnings season. what are you most focused on as we go into october? russ: a couple of things. what is the guidance from companies in terms of spending in terms of the consumer? we are focused on the risks. here is one sliver

francine: it kind of came out of the blue.t it. adam: it should not have come out of the blue. this is a time people knew they would be short of resources in the repo market. there was a lot of demand. --colleague, simon part or simon potter, you should have him on talking about how this works. he may have a different view. the bottom line is that plumbing is important, you need skilled plumbers, but if you pay attention you do not need to worry about the system backing up. francine: we are all heading to the plaza for the bloomberg business forum where we will hear from top banking executives. this is bloomberg. ♪ beyond the routine checkups. beyond the not-so-routine cases. comcast business is helping doctors provide care in whole new ways. all working with a new generation of technologies powered by our gig-speed network. because beyond technology... there is human ingenuity. every day, comcast business is helping businesses go beyond the expected. to do the extraordinary. take your business beyond. willy davis, who has alz

francine. francine: think is so much. arabia's chief solomon -- putting royal family member in charge for the first time. prince abdulaziz named one of the top industry officials -- he takes over after the removal of been sela over the weekend. does not mean there will be change in the oil strategy or lease that is the view of the ues oil minister. minister.'s oil >> we are very happy for the prince. i think we are lucky to have someone with that knowledge of the industry. -- he will be in there for every decision. many of those, especially the corporation agreements between opec and non-opec, he was working with us. think we are getting or who who is not aware is going to be a shock. us, hen who said with would do whatever it takes. do you think or would you know the prince going to be more of the same to do whatever it takes? >> i think when it comes to what we decide as ministers, this comes from the leadership of the country. the support that we get from all leadership. it is not just the minister decision to do whate

francine: this is bloomberg "surveillance," tom and francine from new york.u.k., speculation on whether he will stay in your. -- in new york. to the u.k.raight shadow attorney general from the labour party conference. we were listening to that hearing together. your main takeaway now is that parliament should open tomorrow and what comes next? >> absolutely, parliament should reconvene because that was shot down unlawfully. extraordinary thing to happen in a great, mature democracy like the u.k. i am embarrassed, not just as a lawyer, but as a person in britain to have boris johnson representing us. he is an embarrassment. whether people vote to leave or remain in our referendum three years ago, this case was about shutting down parliament and he did it unlawfully. tinpot the behavior of a dictator, not appropriate for the prime minister of the united kingdom. , hee had a shred of honor probably would have resigned by now and maybe he wants to do that at the general assembly. extraordinary times and a powerful judgment from our supreme court. francine: if the

francine: the only?is whether we are creating -- the only question markets really want to know is whether we are creating bubbles. are we? hugo: i would suggest the open market is a bubble of epic proportions. if there is a big bubble out there, we think it is in the bond market. , i suppose, isn not whether it is a bubble or not, but how does that resolve? when you are still willing to pump in stimulus when the ecb is on the road to qe forever, that open market operation we saw two weeks ago, is there is no end to that quantitative easing within the program. the bubble is continuing to receive liquidity, continuing to be pumped. the bubble continues. tom: the bubble continues and the drama continues. thank you for the comments. he will continue with us through the next half-hour. hugo rogers with us as well. he will be introduced to the nation today, there is no other way to put it. i'm not a big fan of the phrase spy chief, but maybe that is what he is. mr. maguire will testify. really interesting. jos

francine lacqua is on the banks of lake como. francine: great to see you.us is vitor constancio, former vice president, european central bank. as always, thank you for getting us a little of your time. so much has happened to the euro zone economy. thing you be the would tell christine lagarde to do? when she went to parliament recently because it is the appropriate thing to do, the present slowdown and the situation deteriorates further, in particular coming from the with thef europe worldwide downturn, then europe and the euro area cannot fully face this without fiscal policy. francine: who should deliver that policy? vitor: it should be at the european level. well why at the center is necessary, not just to shock, but the duration of the world economy aggregates the situation in europe that is dependent on exports. francine: do you see germany spending? think they may do it in the end. it is surprising they are not preparing to do it in view of the fact they have negative ares to borrow, and there good investments that are needed as in any other country.

matt: fascinating stuff, francine. francine lacqua on the green at westminster.g, we will speak to howard davies, the chairman of rbs. that is an interview you don't want to miss at 11:00 a.m. u.k. time. this is bloomberg. ♪ matt: welcome back to the european open. we are looking at a lot of superlatives this morning. it is an exciting market. first off with the pound, we've seen sterling dropped to the lowest since october, at least october of 2016 tsurenko, we're so right now, we are looking at the pound at 1.1979. if we close below this level are at this level, it would be the lowest closing level since 1985. as parliamentoric gets ready to vote on the possibility of a no deal brexit. an all-time low in the 10-year gilts fields. -- gilt yields. a 38 basis point return, which doesn't look so hot after you take out u.k. inflation. i also want to look at the euro-dollar because we see the euro-dollar increasingly weakening and right now, it should be around 1.09. we will see the level on your screen. the euro-dollar has been in the downtrend and is that because o

francine lacqua is sitting down with j.p. morgan's james dimon disney ceo bob iger -- james dimon and is the ceo bob iger. >> absolutely hard work. i've always tried to be disciplined. i think there's a big element that, i don't care what you do in life, but you've got to navigate it, and things happening ways you don't expect. francine: what does it mean being a leader in 2019, and how has that changed in your last 10 years? >> i think being a leader today is probably different because the world is changing much faster. technology clearly is increasing the speed of change, no matter what direction you look. far more disruption than ever before. i think it requires a patient's. more abilityuts, to take risks, and an ability to make decisions without having all the answers because the answers are harder to get, given the speed of change. francine: is it more difficult to navigate because of the changing political systems? >> details, analytics, facts, stuff like that. trust, personal relationships, those of the same. the speed

francine: how many times have you been asked?i see people ask all the time, hundreds of different people, so i don't think someone should be flattered. i'm not going to, i love what i do, i think we can make our production contribution around the world from the platform i have. francine: is that because you think you can make a bigger difference as chief executive? >> it's the best i can do. do my job well and that does lift up people around the world and finance economies, cities, states, and i love it. francine: is there a vacuum left by politics and politicians that chief executives must fill? >> i hope not. i don't think there is anything wrong with a chief executive going into politics, but i don't think there's a vacuum that needs to be filled. the world needs great leaders. i think our political system, at least in the united states, is not designed to develop great leaders or to encourage more people to seek public office. >> there's probably an overlap of skills between a ceo and a good politician. you are basically gett

francine: thank you so much. one of the interviews we've been most looking forward to today. this is slightly different to the economy and monetary focus on geopolitics. we are with fuat oktay, vice president of turkey. thank you for being with us. are we risking another migration crisis? vp oktay: unfortunately, yes. especially in syria and especially in idlib, the situation is not that good. for thebeen trying hard past couple of years to keep the peace intact in that part of the region. we have a process with russia and getting iran into the picture. we were able to get a secured area, and cleaning up that area from terrorist groups, providing a safe haven for the civilians. unfortunately, the syrian regime remains too much civilian catastrophes. how is the european stance on this issue? vp oktay: unfortunately, i am not sure whether there is a european stance. is so much into its own issues in a way that they have .orgotten the migrants the way that europe looks at it is mostly from the foreign fighter point

francine: we talk about the possible trump administers an intervention on the dollar.s that a worrying signal? something unthinkable a couple of years ago was talked about. >> i don't want to state any policy or any direction in terms of monetary policy going forward. there are and have been changes that clearly question the traditional way of thinking about monetary policy. commitment hope the asthe g20 leaders as early 2008 and repeated ever since not to adopt any protective measures would be sustained and would be reaffirmed. that was incoming ecb president christine lagarde. the stories we have been talking about here, the shakeup at wework. the ceo stepping down. the ipo now in jeopardy until a management change. leanae leon a baker -- baker. the voting control will change from 10 to one to 31. it's unclear what happens now or if that will be enough. start with what you know about this latest news. leana: it's not a huge surprise but adam neumann, the founder of the company is stepping down. he will be decreasing his voting control of the company. these are all th

francine: does a recession happen even if the u.s.-china trade concern is dealt with?ave a deal, could we still look at a possible recession? >> the industrial slowdown was taking place before the trade war really heated up. there are two major issues. one, will there be a deal between china and the u.s.? doubts, but i don't have any more insight than anybody else the more interesting thing to talk about is what the global central banks are doing, and how long that will take to work and whether it will work. the fed started lowering rates in june. any economist will tell you that the transmission mechanism takes at least a year. the earliest that the u.s. economy should start to pick up is next summer. that seems to be missing from people's analysis. they seem to think the fed lowers rate everything gets , better all of a sudden but it doesn't work that way. the more interesting thing to ask is does the normal , transmission mechanism of the fed lowering rates work at this low level of rates? i'm starting to have my doubts about that. the problem is, and this isn't dis

francine: do you see commonality in leaders or worry they don't have a common objective?istine: i've yet to meet a leader or prime minister or finance minister who says i don't want sustainable growth, thank you very much. that should be a common objective. how they reallocate, redistribute, deal with inequality is a matter for them to decide, but growth in and of sustainable growth, is something that should be desirable for all of them and by sustainable, i mean in theliance and respect with survival of our planet and the respect of the environment. goal,st with that common they should move forward together on certain key opponents. francine: if we were to have a crisis, would world leaders be able to sign an accord like they did back then? when you have the biggest players at the table? we were in a late 2008 come early 2009 situation, there is no doubt leaders would come together yet again. i really hope that does not a threat as we-- had in those days should not happen again. possible we talk about trump administration intervention on the dollar. unthinkable awas coup

lacquarg's francine asked her if she had any doubts about the job.al issues, and one was i love the job i had at the imf, and i loved the people i worked with at imf, the relationships we build, and what the institution required. it was well positioned, but i think we, through hard work and brain andcus and the the heart, i think we maintained it at the core of the global financial safety net. ne reluctance that i had. the second one was the thing that everybody assumed. oh, she has never been a central banker before. how can she do that job? and i am not an idiot, and i do not have enough vanity to assume that i can do anything, so i talked to a lot of people who had been central bank governors whom i trusted and who knew the , and they all supported me, and they all confirmed that, yes, under current circumstances and given the strength of the institution and the situation we are in in europe, i had to say yes. to saye: because you had yes because you are the right person or the female leader, the first female leader? rde: i do not think it was the

good afternoon, i'm francine lacqua in london. we are

they spoke to francine lacqua in new york.ina and perhaps a different way but there are clearly issues that have to get dealt with. serious trade related issues. i look at china more as a glass half-full can at least for our company. it is a market that was relatively inaccessible for a long time. it is now the second largest movie market in the world for us and we have built a huge the seem --shanghai -- huge shanghai with government support, all at their expense. they welcomed us there. we have a good relationship with china and our access has actually increased over time. should there be a level playing field? absolutely. but are there other issues that have to get dealt with? of course. but as ceo of the walt disney company, i look at china quite favorably. >> how much do you worry about the trade war impacting the world economy? >> i agree with bob. the trade issue is serious and has to be dealt with. the method could be different. a lot has said tariffs are the only thing to try, but people should look at china a little

. ♪ francine: beijing ramps up the heat on america's heartland. president trump fires john bolton.re mean for u.s. foreign-policy? , apple unveilsp an aggressively priced set of new phones and kaplan -- and tablets but it's video service steals the show. ♪ francine: good morning, everyone. this is "bloomberg surveillance." these are your markets.

that is francine lacqua reporting. now let's turn to the united states, where the main focus today is on jobs, with august nonfarm payrolls estimated to rise. michael mckee has more in washington. set it up for us. michael: jobs are about paychecks, and paychecks are the foundation for spending. while the headline number is backward looking, officials are going to be looking for clues to how the consumer will do going forward. new york fed president john williams saying this week it is the consumer holding up the economy. we have seen wages rise as unemployment has fallen over the past month, and consumer spending has been strong. the wage numbers have flattened out a little bit, but they are still rising over 3%. if we get that again today, it would be reassuring. 100 60,000 forecast, new jobs created and 3.7% unemployment. we might have an interesting bump. in the hiring numbers the census bureau was -- an interesting bump in the hiring numbers. the census bureau was going to put more people on, so that would distort

francine: mario draghi heads into his second to last ecb meeting. but how much stimulus is enough? stocks gain as president trump delays tariff increases. beijing considers resuming farm imports. and a boris johnson's government faces the worst case raise outcome. operation yellow hammer once of food and fuel shortages -- warns of food and fuel shortages. welcome to "bloomberg surveillance." there is quite a lot going on today. we focus on

. ♪ francine: sterling surges. jean-claude juncker says a deal can be reached and the pound rises.executive as alison rose is promoted. and more funding stress for the fed. the central bank conducts repo operations for a fourth day. ♪ francine: welcome to "bloomberg surveillance." .hese are your markets overall, we are seeing a little bit of a move on treasuries an

francine: bill winters is a consummate global banker with a track record that speaks for itself.ent 25 years at jpmorgan, rising to the top to lead the investment bank. during his four-year tenure at standard chartered, he has turned around the company with the bank delivering its first buy back in 20 years. in july i welcomed him back. bill winters, thank you for joining us on leaders. you took over the bank in 2015 and reshaped it, what was the hardest part of the business transformation?

francine: bill winters is a consummate global banker with a track record that speaks for itself.ent 25 years at jpmorgan, rising to the top to lead the investment bank. during his four-year tenure at -- as ceo at standard chartered, he has turned around the company with the bank delivering its first buy back in 20 years. in july i welcomed him back. bill winters, thank you for joining us on leaders. you took over the bank in 2015

francine lacqua moderated a lively discussion with jp morgan's chief chairman, jamie dimon, and bob igergive,t advice would you and what advice would you take from politicians? >> advice from politicians when it comes to regulation in various countries around the world get advice from government relations and knowledge from government officials and countries. most you have dealt with have never been in business. seeking business advice from politicians is not something a typically do. i respect their opinions on things, but it is pretty limited to that. >> policy is complicated. collaboration is necessary. the road to health pays good intentions. you're supposed to lift up the people of the country, and they drag them down. many good politicians should figure out the policy, what can be achieved, and get it done, as opposed to thinking over some plastic things. you have seen countries around the world doing great for the people. you have seen countries doing terrible. terrible is always in the name of good. listen to the politicians. do the right policy and move on. if you don't get reel

. >> here is francine strike. >> my 24-year-old daughter jessie and her friend jacob were killed in super storm sandy by falling trees. and many others were killed that night by rising waters. since then there have been worldwide super storms, severe weather impacting hundreds, thousands, we seen an example of that tonight. what specific steps and i mean step would you take, you said something before, but what specific steps would you take in your first year regarding policies, funding, safe communities, jobs that would help mitigate the impact of climate change in your first year and then what would you want to have accomplished at the end of your first term if elected? >> first of all, we have to do is go back and turn back all of the changes that in fact the president has made from cafe standards to moving in the direction that we in fact deal with providing people who get displaced opportunities to have jobs by sending them back to school, by doing continued education. a whole range of things. i would see to it immediately moving towards, you know, we are in fact in a position now tha

francine: danske bank is reeling from the fallout of the world's biggest money laundering chiefl hasvestment officer. it is a name that will be familiar to those who follow european banks. the cfo leaves denmark's biggest bank. the latest reshuffles are more difficulty for the bank. philip: i think it is the case of the ceo getting his own people on board, people he knows from the market. they have been in and out for seven years, so he has experience, and they have taken control of how they want to take the bank going forward. shery: "it is clear to us that the status quo is unacceptable." that is the walmart ceo speaking to news that the retail giant will stop selling some types of ammunition and ask customers to not openly carry firearms in the aisles. how will this affect the bottom line? >> well, it will have an impact on their sales. they control about 20% of ammunition sales in the u.s. and said today these measures will reduce their market share from 20% to 9%. they denied it saying it but there is a broader financial impact where they will see a reduction in earnings -- they

francine: commissioner, do you see a lesson to be drawn from the european policy mix because of whatppened in saudi arabia? mr. canete: we already have learned a lesson. we have to fight global warming. we have to have climate change policies. that means getting out of fossil fuels, develop clean energies and renewables, increasing efficiency. that is why we have put in action all the legislation in that direction and that is why we are working on a strategy for 2050 to develop sustainable energy. it would require huge financial flows. they cannot be met by public finance. we have to deliver the private sector. >> five to 10 years ago, a lot of the philosophy around climate was either take action on climate or promote growth on jobs. what we've seen over the past few years is that is a false choice. that a lot of investment will result in new jobs in new market opportunities and considerable economic growth. you look at china. major investor in renewable energy. you look at germany, doing the same thing. and in no small part because they realize that the policy shifts that are being

francine lacqua joined by jacob frankel. >> we are joined by mr. frankel as always. thank you for joining us. 25% chanceere is a of a recession next year. what in your eyes would trigger a recession? fact the u.s. is still the strongest economy out of all the industrial countries, labor markets are strong, the question is why are people still concerned? quote whether to it is 25-30%. there are pressure points that can trigger a complete loss of confidence. it comes from the policy side. the large between powers. go ahead. >> the trade war put a recession risk closer to us. does it create a recession? the important point to note is, think of it in terms of the impact in the world. largestthe two economies in the world, the u.s. and china. plane, theing in a two copilots are fighting each other. how would you feel when you hear in the loudspeaker the two copilots are not sough -- settling their differences? you would buckle see your seatbelts, buckle your seatbelts , and hope for the best. it is essential communication goes on. they are eager and responding to informat

he was an amazing >>during his mother francine turner says her son was the victim of poor safety practices at the center. >>and there's obviously something not being done properly. >>terry's death led to the united states parachute association revoking dollars membership instructor was he qualified to be doing candid joseph you. >>definitely miss himself knows that instructor was not properly certified which it's been proven her point to the fact the fda determined kwan head for just paperwork. it was not certified a violation of federal regulations they're not doing things the right way there are so many other skydiving places you can go to. >>and surrounding areas not far. i would just advise people to go somewhere. >>ultimately the f a a did not. >>sanction the parachute center in turner's death meanwhile, though the us department of transportation office of inspector general, does have an ongoing investigation into the lodi parachute center. let's step outside. let's see what we see not the fish we saw earlier boy look at the bay bridge toll plaza area and somebody wanted to get into c

. ♪ francine: boris johnson suffers his third major loss in parliament in two days.e will appeal directly to the public. the u.s. and china say they will hold trade talks in the coming weeks with plans to visit washington in early october. and we speak to the riksbank governor as they say they are still raising banks -- rates at the end of the year. good afternoon, everyone. this is "bloomberg surveillance." we will