francine? francine: thank you so much, viviana. spiked asacebook has communities around the globe are trapped at home. messaging and voice calls have jumped more than 50% and the live feature has seen viewership search. the company has also built products to help businesses affected by the pandemic. i'm delighted to be joined by the vice president at facebook for em ea. thank you so much for giving us a little bit of your busy schedule. i know facebook has pledged quite a lot to help smaller companies out there, giving hundreds of millions to help small businesses. is that because the government is not doing enough or you are just reaching a different graphic -- demographic? >> good to talk to you again. i look forward to the day when we can do it person. we work with small businesses all over the world. it's tough for everybody at the moment. we think this is a situation where it's not just going to be one government or company, but it will take all of us to get through this. that's why we have made the announcement will give out

francine: thank you so much, commissioner.that is not the only issue on the table of the discussion. there are many other tools that we can use. francine: commissioner -- paolo: not only having a monetary response based on the intervention. francine: commissioner, thank you so much. too short a time. we will have to get you back on. ♪ these days you need faster internet that does all you expect and way more. that's xfinity xfi. get powerful wifi coverage that leaves no room behind with xfi pods. and now xfi advanced security is free with the xfi gateway, giving you an added layer of network protection, so every device that's connected is protected. that's a $72 a year value. no one else offers this. faster speed, coverage, and free advanced security at an unbeatable value with xfinity xfi. can your internet do that? francine: the death toll of coronavirus nears 50,000 as fatalities spike in spain and the u.k. in the u.s., the pentagon looks to provide as many as 100,000 body bags. american officials say china concealed the ext

francine? francine: thank you so much.y historic day when it comes to oil prices, crude crisis facing a wipeout. >> nobody's ever heard of negative oil before. >> we probably will not see this again in my lifetime, but it is a reflection of how oversupplied the market is, how weak demand is and how tight the term structure has gotten. >> we could start to see this next year starting to come into balance, but it's a matter of going forward. >> north american production will be structurally impaired. >> a perfect storm for oil producers out there, and you see that in the prices today. >> an oil patch in this much trouble is not good for the u.s. economy. >> everyone will be looking at and taking signals what is ispening, whether the u.s. recovering. if not, june could follow may. francine: to talk about dislocation, oil prices and the easing of some lock in europe and elsewhere, we're joined by philip hildebrand, vice chair at blackrock. thank you for giving us a little time. we've never seen anything like this price of oil.

francine: race to the bottom. brent crude hits the lowest price of the century, and prompted opec calls to cut but no near action. the u.s. senate passes a pandemic relief fund totaling nearly $500 billion. the house is set to vote tomorrow. and roche, the drugmaker, sets a drug that allows antibody tests. good morning, good evening at everyone. i hope you are safe at home. our thoughts are with you, and together we are stronger. yesterday, or two days ago, we had that huge swing, that huge impact that we saw with negative prices on wti. it is now filtering through the brent. we are nowhere near negatives, but if you look at the price action, it has been pretty brutal over the last 24 hours. selling pressures definitely intensifying. wti downok at brent, more than 4%. let's get to bloomberg first word news in new york city with viviana hurtado. viviana: hi, francine. here in the u.s., finding a new pandemic relief package totaling 40 -- $484 billion, including some for the paycheck protection program, to help smal

francine? francine: thank you so much. let's get more in the clash between u.s. governors and president trump, let's get straight to new york city and annmarie hordern. clash, thise president trump actually have all the power? annmarie: good morning. president trump says he has total power and authority when it comes to when we could see some of the social distancing measures loosened and lockdown measures lifted. many are saying, including governors and legal experts that according to the constitution that if it is not identified a something within federal government jurisdiction, it goes to the states. we could potentially see the showdown between federal and state leaders and that could exacerbate what we have seen at times is a very prickly situation. we have learned governors are taking a bit of a regional approach. here in new york, governor andrew cuomo is working with the governors of new jersey in effect sylvania to work with northeast dates so they can come up with a plan so they can reopen schools and businesses

francine: thank you so much. corporate news, unilever has with john guidance because of disruptions from the coronavirus. we spoke earlier to the chief executive and talked about that forecasting growth of 2.1%. >> it is a drastic human crisis we are dealing with. we think we are in the middle of it and not coming to the end of it anytime soon. we are managing our business more for responsiveness and agility to what happened to him walking in on a fixed scenario of the future. everyone who has tried to second-guess what happens with the evolution of this virus, the human impact, has regretted locking in a position too soon, and that is the position we are taking. anna: should we think about this in the context of a lot of customers in european and u.s. countries stockpiling products, is that a feature of the first quarter, or did you manage -- was that something that did not affect you much? a our portfolio has been degree of internal hedge. we saw soft parts of our business, our food services and supplies for re

francine. francine: thank you so much. onto l'oreal.is one of the most fascinating countries -- companies. the pandemic swept across the globe. closed many department stores. this is what we are seeing in terms of the figures. this is what we have seen. the impact closed department stores, hair salons. sales decline around 5% after record number. the consumer giant is seeking a less severe slump in sales. fashion focused luxury companies like burberry have been slightly more resilient and it sells more products that are available in the supermarkets and drugstores which mostly remain open. joining us is the chief executive, jean-paul agon. mr. agon, thank you so much for joining us. you were adversely impacted because of the lockdown in china. are you seeing green shoots as the economy reopens there? have a dropes, we in the business, especially in thanks to our strength in e-commerce, our business in china was able to be 6%.tive with plus that is pretty remarkable. as i said, it is due to the strength of the u.s. where we are 6% -- 60%

francine? tom? tom: viviana, thanks so much. let's look at equities, bonds, and as i said yesterday, oil, oil, oil. crawlings intermediate back near zero, still a negative statistic moments ago. as francine mentioned, the june contract below 20, plummeting to a recent low of 18.4. emphasize awant to dampening across all asset classes over the next 48 hours with yields coming in, curves flattening, equities obviously off. just one idea, the correlate over to oil. corn having a really difficult go of it. francine? yeah, tom, i do think it in generalk at more broadly, explaining the difference between the may contract and the june contract. those who take physical delivery in the near future of crude may not find storage for those barrels. also looking at pound, we had an interesting call from some of the banks given that the u.k. and e.u. conversations have restarted, but the u.k. keeps saying they will not extend the transition period. we also need to look at pound. 1.2395. tom, let me pick it u

francine? francine: viviana, thank you so much.s on the german economy, and we had that ifo institute at the top. if you look at pmi's for the month of april, they actually plunged to 17.1, way below economists' forecast and one of the lowest readings ever. they are continuing to plummet. the institute calls the plunge "catastrophic." joining us is clemens fuest, president at the ifo institute for economic research. germany expects the economy to contract by about 5% this year. is it too optimistic? dr. fuest: i think that the uncertainty is enormous at the moment. it is very hard to predict what is going to happen, but the forecast, -1%. forecasts at other certainly, on the optimistic side, the imf has forecast -7%, but it is very hard to make any productions at the moment, because the pandemic is really very large. francine: ok, but what do you think is the biggest risk for the german economy right now? dr. fuest: the risk is certainly that this recovery everybody is expecting, maybe in the third quarter, may not be coming or may

francine. francine: thank you so much. talk about monitoring fiscal policy and what this means for the u.k. economy. my next guest was the youngest ever vice president of the world bank. she served as managing director the imf and governor the bank of england. now director of the london school of economics, let's get straight to her. welcome to bloomberg surveillance and thank you for taking time out of your busy day. when you look at the economy and what we are seeing in the recovery, how do you see it playing out. i think we are going through a period where the world economy as a whole will look like different including the u.k.. trade could change. makinge is talking about supply chains much more local. that's partly a response to the crisis of coronavirus but it's also a response to automation which make me cheaper for firms to bring -- and it's also a way to protect yourself from trade wars. we are also going to have an economy that's much more digital. we see the move and digital in this crisis and a lot of that will

francine: thank you so much. let's get straight to the head of research at generali investments. always great to speak to you. when you look at the recession, how deep will it be and what will be its lasting legacy? how is this different from 2008-2009? >> thank you very much for having me. i think the benchmark now that outlookhas its economic is -3% for global gdp growth this year. the risks are very heavily skewed to the downside. it will take about three points off gdp growth in major economies and the extension of the lockdown that we are seeing now implies that growth will be very weak indeed. unfortunately, we are not going to see a v-shaped recovery. the scars of the damage has been too large. in the u.s., it will rise to 20%. hopefully, some people will get back to their jobs, but not everyone and that will take a long time. the financial positions of corporations will be weaker out of this crisis. sheetebt in the balance and that means that capex is going to be soft. unfortunately, we are looking for a

francine? tom? . tom: thanks so much. let me look at equities, bonds, currencies, commodities, a better day than yesterday, at least for now. a two dollar lift in oil. the market is doing better, they -4% yesterday as well. francine, i want to emphasize, as kit juckes emphasized today at socgen, that we are all waking up first and looking at the em markets. i am not going to go into all the data we look at, but the that emea, francine, is markets are exceptionally fragile. they take a little bit of a breather right now from the currency weakness that we have seen. francine: i am looking at treasuries. they are slipping. looking at brent, it was up as much as 12% as the biggest importer took advantage of a 60% plunge this year to add to stockpiles. this is not an un-significant story. i wanted to show you what i was looking at in pound. pound was increasing to 0.2 percent, tom. tom: it is absolutely extraordinary. what we are seeing in the data today, just looking at the zeitgeist, the compendium we bring in across all the

francine. francine: i am looking at stocks. u.s. equity futures. the focuses is on the roads largest economy. u.s. helping investors understand how it will reopen. us., thank you for joining the market is taking risk by the fact we are slowly thinking about the plans to reopen the economy. what happens the market is we open, and then we have to shut back down. if you look at the number of deaths and infections, they are not under control. >> thank you so much. an hour base case, we do think we start to get the restrictions lifted but there will be setbacks, as we progress through the year. that is why the earnings that people are looking forward to are probably not going to make before 2021.end i think some of that of what you are describing. happens -- where is au look at when it right time to go back into the market? does have to be a 100% end of the lockdown? mark: a lot of that depends on which market. having followed coverage very closely and the great job that you all have been doing, i do want to point out, there's a little bit of a differen

tom and francine from london and new york.e are talking a lot about the u.s., some of the figures that we may see a little bit later on in terms of jobless claims. we will get back to paul donovan and ubs management. i wanted to ask about europe. there is so much fight between italy and some of the countries that corona has hit. can we talk about debt forgiveness or will we see italy in a bailout program once this is over? that it isn't think the only way. i think there are institutional mechanisms that with a bit of tweeting can possibly help provide common assistance. we have seen the commission talking about raising calls as well including the markets that are not quite corona bonds but led by the european commission with the government guarantee. i don't think we need to fixate on corona bonds. i think we need to focus on the financial assistance across the euro area in the way we have already seen europe come together with common medical assistance and common programs for purchasing medical equipment. of cooperation is th

francine: that was ben laidler. get him on the phone soon to talk about the opportunities he sees in the market. let's get straight to new york city with the first word news. blueprint to increase coronavirus testing released by the white house, but the strategy is up to the states to depend -- develop their own plan. state and local officials insist widespread testing is the key to this day at how motors -- the stay-at-home orders. at a consensus that the coronavirus cannot be eradicated and expected to return in waves. the biggest problem, it can be spread undetected because it affects people without symptoms. amazon's safety and labor practices after they fired the leader of a warehouse walk out. a group of lawyer -- employees demanded they close the facility for cleaning as several colleagues died from coronavirus. donald trump says he knows how kim jong-un is doing and south korea no where's he it -- knows where he is but neither are releasing information. president trump says he cannot talk about it now and th

francine: race to the bottom. crude hits the lowest price of the century as the demand crush hits the benchmark and opec with calls to commitment but no new action. the senate passes pandemic relief funds posing nearly $500 billion. the house is set to vote on the measure tomorrow. and roche sees a profit bond as they work on developing tests for covid-19. the chief executive tells us they have antibody tests the start of may. good morning and good evening, everyone, this is "bloomberg surveillance." tom and francine from london and new york. i know we'll spend a lot of time figuring out what the senate bill means for smaller companies in the u.s. but we'll also spend a lot of time figuring out what happens to brent crude. we saw the devastation when it came to w.t.i. first that may contract and now the june contract and we really focus on exactly what it means for brent and i'm looking forward to speaking to the head of the i.a. later on. tom: it will be interesting to talk to fatih. we have the price actions and

francine?anks so much. the president trump press conference, late at night, london time, have been pretty entertaining. president trump saying he will temporarily cut off funding to the world health organization. he accused it of taking china's claim about the coronavirus at face value, also of refusing to share information as it spread. w.h.o. is the single biggest funder, contribute almost $900 billion to the operations in its current two funding cycle. pres. trump: today i am a chuxing my administration to halt -- i am instructing my administration to halt funding as it health organization continues to assess its role in mismanaging and covering up the spread of the coronavirus. francine: that was president trump talking yesterday. let's get to annmarie hordern in new york. does this play well with his base? we are in the election year, and i know a lot of the campaigning in many states has stopped. but if he says it is their fault, i have done everything i can to contain the virus, does it

francine: thank you. an exclusive ,onversation with douglas flint chair standard life aberdeen. a good conversation about them and a he said it is on hold. talked to him if it was turning into a deeper crisis. who are suffering most, in those who are retired feel no ability to add to their savings. their savings is remunerated that much less than it used to be whether it is interest rates which are further shortly nothing -- with her -- >> dividends have been curtailed for -- businesses that are in difficulty in terms of cash flow and funding have no choice but to cut dividends. companies seeking support from the public purse cannot in any degree of readability paid money out to shareholders well seeking public support. for those companies that can pay a dividend, and we were , it says -- pleased something about resilience, but we were able to buy -- to pay our final dividend, i think companies that have the strength to do so should. those that put their business the jobs off for their colleagues at risk

francine: thanks so much.irst of all, british petroleum is seeing capital spending 25% below prior guidance. there are a number of companies coming out and saying they either have to forgo their guidance or give out dividends. hilary clark is working on a great chart we will get to you on the program. let's talk more about the markets and what kind of recovery will see. ludovic, thank you for giving us a little bit of your time. you -- what kind of models are you looking at for the economy? ludovic: markets are worried about longer confinement and dumped no what they will be experiencing. like many analysts looking at the markets, we expect many of these outcomes could last for two quarters, but then we expect some kind of rebound. this is an overshoot because we see a large number being transferred onto the public sector. see, we see risk of infection. it's something the markets will try very differently. it means that as long as the u.s. is not out of the woods, you won't see this recovery in europe or in st

this is bloomberg. ♪ francine: this is "bloomberg surveillance. i'm francine lacqua in london.good time to talk about travel and leisure. joining us now is the director for citigroup global markets. -- for leisure first global markets. tourism has grounded to a halt. are there any winners? are there any pockets in the delivery services or anything like that, that could actually come out ok? >> yeah. thank you for your question. it is a very, very difficult time for all the travel companies. the latest trading data we see from hotels shows practically no occupancy across hotels through much of europe. in the u.s.. coverage,nk about my obviously travel is very badly impacted and nobody is really doing very well there. but as you mentioned, the food delivery offers bright spots. in particular, what we have seen deliveries asugh countries go into lockdown, and that is starting to calculate into more website visits than users -- from active app of the platform. there are some bright spots there. francine: how do you see it recovering? so let's say the lockdown and -- let's be very c

francine: thank you so much.are being pushed higher in the u.s., u.s. equities futures higher, and also in europe. investors are trying to look through the bad news, the china data and the fact that the number of cases are rising in many countries, and focusing on the fact that the u.s. may be restarting in the next couple of weeks, or we have plans, and gilead. euro-dollar, 1.0 818. tom and i wanted to look at wti. gold down. reports claiming gilead's coronavirus drug is speeding recovery provided a boost for investors, but many analysts are cautiously optimistic as they wait for real clinical data. on the back of it, gilead sciences gaining some 11.7 percent in premarket trade. right,at is exactly gilead was the good news coming out and hours later a chest just challenging investment by south side analysts. intermediate off of massive storage units -- issues in the middle of the united states really coming down. a nice bounce up and the last couple of minutes, up near $18.60 a barrel. , emergingtalk briefly mar

francine? francine: crude oil surging above $15 a barrel in new york. looking at what european stocks are doing because they drifted as private sector activity plunged more than economists anticipated. flipping and taking a $1 billion right down for provisions on bad loans after the pandemic. markets are trying to figure out exactly what coronavirus' impact on the global economy will be. i stand corrected, the european stocks were up, down, down, and now they are up again. tom: we are thrilled to bring you dennis gartman. he is on a golf course somewhere in the south. he is supposedly retired but i don't believe it. he continues to follow the market daily and sends out messages to fancy people. like the: disinflation and some of the great house calls from global wall street, mr. gartman has nailed the call on gold. he says own gold but against a weaker yen, particularly against the euro. how can i have confidence to hold gold at $1700 an ounce? how do i effect that in euros and where is that heading on a percent change basis? guntram: owning it in euros

francine? tom? francine: let -- tom: let's get to the data -- equities, bonds, oil, oil, oil. there has been a churn there as well. there is no russian yields coming, that there is no question the yields come in. we are not there yet, but i would watch the two-year yield very much so. 13.99 print ona spot, west texas intermediate. the june future has plunged from a 24 handle down to a 23 handle. i really do this because it is complex. i really don't like to talk about the futures market, but the june future is what the watch today is on oil. the west texas will make the headlines, but the june futures is critical, and it shows the huge capacity out there right going 25, 24, $23 a barrel. for west texas intermediate in june. francine? 1 we have a headline -- francine: we have a headline from the bank of spain, with the economy shrinking by 8%. it is significant and it could move euro dollars, shaking 12.4% in 2020. we had a stimulating conversation with the chairman e. societe general u.s. equit

francine: commissioner i will jump outcome we will come back. ♪ francine: this is "bloomberg surveillances get back to our conversation with paolo gentiloni, european commissioner for economic and financial affairs, former prime minister of italy. thank you for staying with us. we were talking about the measures put in place, the recovery fund that europe will most likely put in place. how will this recovery fund be funded? olo: this is what we are working on. the idea that the commission is working on is to have this fund connected to the european budget , and using the european budget to borrow in the financial amount ofsufficient money, and then the discussion will be on how big this hunk of money should be on the timing, because we cannot wait for this fund one year or something like this. we need this, i think, very already and as we mentioned, is the composition of , with what security, and how much will be on grants. grants are probably needed, arecially in countries that risking to augment their debt with only loans. but this is the discussion going and, sorry i cannot give alread

francine?? much,iviana, thank you so greatly, greatly appreciate it this money. right now a little bit of data for you. what you need to know as a giveback on the good news you saw yesterday on equities, you're decidedly lower. focusing on a two year yield indicating what jon ferro heard, which is global retraction. francine? francine: yeah, dollar and treasurer actually gained, and we are also focusing on pound, the big winner from the pandemic heading central europe. coming up, we speak with john hardy, the head of fx strategy. we will talk dollar and pound. this is bloomberg. ♪ w?w?uhió'ñó ♪ >> we were looking at some of the pairings in the market. the kiwi dollar leading the decline as there is a risk aversion because of what oil is doing and the lockdowns that seem to be ramping up even in germany. hardy, whoed by john is saxobank head of strategy to talk about currencies. what about the dollar right now? ben: the dollar seems to trading fairly consistently. we saw this incredible move yes

francine: how many trials to we have. today we found astrazeneca was partnering over potential vaccine. are there six or seven different trials we should be looking at or these also working together? >> there are many trials going on. astrazeneca is testing a counter drug. .nother is testing there are many theories being tested in terms of treating the virus and the effects of the virus on the body. at the end of the day the easiest way to go back to way normal life is for people to be immune to this virus. they are basically one of the last pharma companies to get into the vaccine game. that is positive. thank you so much. an expert on everything he do with pharmaceuticals. the conversation you don't want to miss. speaking exclusively to the chief executive, we will talk about insurance, italy and the spread of the disease. this is bloomberg. ♪ francine: this is bloomberg surveillance. we begin shell has cut its dividend for the first time since the second world war. the two thirds couple shock investors who relied on th

francine? francine: tom, i'm looking at a similar data check yours. toward a fresh seven-year high. we need to look at oil because of the opec-plus agreement over the weekend. u.s. indices actually up as our european stocks. equity markets, you must stay with us. howard ward. this is "bloomberg." ♪ tom: this morning, how long the lockdown? every nation force-out. each and every state force-out. posted trump of america once" total authority." jump iny, a lower 3.3% cases in new york. 90% jump in south dakota -- 19% jump in south dakota. j.p. morgan and wells fargo earnings. radio silence on capitol hill. democrats and republicans in political lockdown. good morning, "bloomberg surveillance." from new york and london, francine lacqua back in the saddle and i am tom keene in new york. francine, you look of good health, to say the least. tell us about the prime minister. i believe he is out at checkers. is.cine: he he was brought into hospital

francine: we well. -- will.ion on utilities, the first one to report earnings, the spanish company reaffirmed its 2020 outlook, brushing aside concerns about impact from the coronavirus. we are thrilled to be joined by ignacio galan, the chief executive officer. epidemiclook at this and how it is impacting prices and energy demand, have we seen youworst or are we -- are going to have more pressure on those front? ignacio: good morning, francine. it is a situation we never faced for, so what we have seen is the that started initially was spain and we had already suffered in this demand drop for think the but i situation is being recovered. it is already increasing and the demand is moving the situation, where before the blockage for all the activities. -- not beenbeen to affected for demand because of our regulated activity before the hedge. the retail prices are hedged. and weieces play well have not been affected until now. francine: when you look at the price of oil, and we spent a good amount of time in the l

francine: now, they are not great. we have that horrific figure of 2 million people infected worldwide, however we are seeing the u.s., germany, and others thinking about relaxing the rules. it is different in japan where they are talking about a state of emergency. today, overall the initial claim tally is said to push the four-week total to 22 million people without a job. we will spend time talking about that, and we have a headline from apple. i just got the air pods. apple plans over a year headphones to bolster business working from home. tom: we have seen apple with product announcements including the smaller i found in the last lasturs, -- iphone in the 48 hours and they are separated from the collapse in small-cap. right now, here is viviana hurtado. viviana: donald trump will unveil today plans to relax stay-at-home guidelines and suggests the coronavirus is flatlining in parts of the country, yesterday speaking with more than 200 business media -- leaders. more testing needs to be put into place before peopl

francine: thank you so much. back to david folkerts-landau. ,e are hearing from viviana different countries do it differently with the lockdown and the slow reopening of the economy. should it be up to economists outvirologists to figure the best combination, and why do we have such different approaches? how do you model this? david: it is hard to model because we don't know. effectively what we see now is a good experiment in the sense that in europe, there is a differential speed in some countries so some will go faster, some will go slowly. the same with u.s. states. we have to see in a couple of months from now who does well. there is a real risk in keeping the lockdown on because you are destroying the economy and that you are severing relationships with employees and employers, and human capital may not be easy to build up. on the economy in future years. but if you open to bang -- too quickly, you end up with more infections, so it is a finely balanced exercise and there is no good answer. we have to do it

and francine from london and new york.sen is with us. what is your prescription to get allpe talking again without of this animosity between northern and southern countries? past it is hard to get that animosity because we are ending up with a compromise and jacob kierkegaard has a favorable view on the substance of this compromise in terms of the amount of money being paid, the precedents being set for joint issuance of debt. the spanish government came out with a brilliant, brave, and well reasoned argument. there should be eurobonds and there should be some kind of long-termrt and commitment of euro area solidarity, and if there is instead a compromise, no one is happy. northern wing in the economy says, they are still getting money from us and without conditions, what the hell is going on? at the best, we are doing this as charity. says, we have been very responsible and this is not our fault, and why the hell are we staying here if you do not show solidarity now? the political gap and pressure remains even if the econ

francine? francine: thank you so much, viviana.pandemic has fundamentally changed our supply chains, it also how we recycle and the packaging we use. complex supply change -- genes are under more scrutiny than before as companies try to figure out how to deliver goods to people stuck at home. center isy at the packaging maker ds smith, which supplies packaging to companies to amazon and nestle. i'm delighted to be joined by the chief executive, miles roberts. great to have you on the program. thank you for coming on. has it changed? are you delivering more packaging to individuals and companies because we require more stuff at home, or are there parts of your business that have not been performing as well? supply corrugated packaging. we have seen quite an increase in demand, particularly from the stopping,he people going to restaurants, eating out, eating much more at home, consuming more at home. you have obviously seen a huge increase in e-commerce as well. red across europe and into the u.s.. so we have seen a significant picku

francine: thank you so much.er today, a conversation with the nasdaq chief executive. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ bloomberg "surveillance," good morning, everyone. i want to do a data check, framing on west texas an 11 handle, brent crude under 20. i guess there is stability after this historic move. lower.ower, corn futures higher. pelosi.p later, speaker a motto of newberger berman. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ bloomberg "surveillance," greatly appreciate your attendance. from london, francine lacqua, and i'm tom keene. there are many on wall street that talk and few that do. joseph amato did that it peabody -- at peabody and then went to lehman and created a miracle. he took them to the best on the street. he now holds court at newberger berman and we are thrilled we could get perspective from joseph amato. i have to go do your good analyst on oil. what have you learned on oil forward? joseph: good morning, tom and francine. good to be with you. certainly, markets have been remarkable over the last couple of days given t

francine lacqua in london. want to talk about the shanghai banking corporation and your view on the veracity of the chinese data we are getting. how does hsbc, with all your resources on the pacific rim, how do you adjust the chinese data? janet: like everyone, we look at the reported data and i think everyone uses sector data from their company analysts and such like. have asure others do, we back to work kind of indices. i think the difficulty that china faces in the second quarter is they have started to get back to work. the kind of back to work measure we look out for china, certainly for march, we were seeing lots of improvement in the data. it was almost a kind of 90% economy particularly for a lot of the larger manufacturers. now, what china itself is facing, obviously, is the weakness of demand elsewhere in the world. there is already anecdotal evidence that large manufacturers on the coast are now seeing some other export orders grind to a halt. i think this is critical because you are also seeing it

francine: how is president trump's popularity doing now?dailyddress briefings that were disputed, that his popularity was going down. russ: his popularity has dipped -- kevin: his popularity has biden,somewhat, and joe the likely democratic is edgingal candidate slightly above president trump at the polls. the administration, the sources close to the administration will check in once things start to reopen. tom: kevin cirilli, our chief washington correspondent. to get away from the blur of the news and talk about the philosophy of the democrats and the republicans. to look at the markets with a lift in the equity market, bonds quiet. really into all of that central-bank news, and you are looking for earnings guiding on tech companies. difficult, wti jostled by the contracts and brent crude having a difficult day, spending a good deal of time below $20 a barrel. coming up, and exceptionally important interview with glenn hubbard on supply-side forward. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ everyone.morning, this is bloomberg "surveillance," from london an

francine: lauren sauer. thank you.. ♪ there are times when our need to connect really matters. to keep customers and employees in the know. to keep business moving. comcast business is prepared for times like these. powered by the nation's largest gig-speed network. to help give you the speed, reliability, and security you need. tools to manage your business from any device, anywhere. and a team of experts - here for you 24/7. we've always believed in the power of working together. that's why, when every connection counts... you can count on us. ♪ alix: pain for planes, trains and automobiles. dropwagen expects a severe in earnings, and airbus burned through over a billion dollars in cash as demand crashes and wipes out sales. the ecb prepares for its rate decision tomorrow. fed chair jay powell on deck today as the ecb and fed face questions about how to grow their economies. and bad loans versus good trading. european banks put aside more money for bad loans. welcome to "bloomberg daybreak: this wednesday, april 29.

francine: thank you so much.la from sullivan & cromwell, mobile head of m&a. , ahave more on central banks fantastic conversation later on with bill dudley. also later on, the qualcomm chief executive joins us at 5:00 p.m. in new york, 10:00 p.m. in london. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ good morning, good afternoon, good evening. this is bloomberg "surveillance." shao me reported a 27% year on year jump in third-quarter revenue, thanks to robust internet service and business overseas. we heard from the president. most of shao me stores were closed and offered shorter shorter hours- with less customer traffic. it to oure compared advantages and online travels and we have seen smartphone shipments rebounding quickly and march 2020, shouting -- showing the rib resilience -- showing the resilience of smartphone demand. we have opened two stores in china so we see recovery. right now, the smartphone market isifically is 80 -- specific 80 -- specifically is 80% to 90% of normal demand. this is what we are seeing. our manufact

francine? francine: i have a similar data check. taking a tumble after regulators pushed to access payouts. no payouts, no dividends. stocks falling in europe. investors are looking at the worsening america coronavirus figures, pretty horrific numbers that we heard from dr. fauci and president trump yesterday, and they are trying to assess the impact of the pandemic on corporate profits and dividends. the dollar climate with treasuries. i am looking at a couple of other things. withe dollar climbing treasuries. i am looking at couple of other things. economists are becoming less convinced about the potential for a strong snap back and growth. saudi aramco -- you were mentioning it -- the oil supply surging above 12 million barrels a day, according to an industry official. that comes on the back of russia saying they could be willing to talk, but they are not doing it yet, tom. tom: very good. we welcome all of you again worldwide, a very early morning in america. what we are trying to do is give you conversation, yes, cross economic

francine: thank you for joining us. sachs head of foreign-exchange interest rates and em strategy research. it was meant to be the second day of the imf meetings. they are still virtual. we speak more about those meetings with vitor gaspar, the imf fiscal affairs department director. this is bloomberg. ♪ viviana: you are watching bloomberg "surveillance." royal dutch shell is sending a bold target on -- setting a bold target on cleaner energy. bulkwant to get rid of the of greenhouse gases. follows similar moves by others. long-term job cuts and travel demand is essentially zero. united plans to further cut at scheduled to roughly 10% of capacity. this had once been the plan for 2020. the parent of google will slow hiring for the rest of the year, the most drastic action alphabet has taken yet. the ceo says alphabet is looking at other ways to cut costs, among them rethinking travel and investments. that is your bloomberg business flash. tom: thank you so much, greatly appreciated. he is truly one of the world's experts

francine? francine: as wti futures have tumbled, it is basically opened up almost nine dollars a barrel to the june contract which with most trading has now transferred. the features changing. fires in texas offering as little as two dollars a barrel for some of the oil. raising the possibility that american producers would soon have to pay customers to take root off their hands. that is the story of the day. oute trying to figure earnings. european stocks that were off but are pretty much flat slightly in the red, tom. enoughreally can't say about the bloomberg terminal on the cell phone. i love, love, love this views. -- love the speed of use. the june futures coming in as well i believe with a 22 handle on it right now. with jim caron working in fixed income at morgan stanley, we would start with the bigger view but because of oil, i can do that today. i have to go right to the morgan stanley view linking debt into hydrocarbons as well. jim, you're just old enough to remember midland, texas,

francine: dr.stion asking whether corona can be passed on by mosquito bites, we will hope to have an answer for the viewer. a big markets day. we look at the gilead trials and what it means for the market. today is also european central bank day so we will follow that conference live and in full. day, and on.s. jobs earnings, it is a mixed bag when you look at the european stocks, and a lot of focus on technology and apple. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ alix: europe, bad growth and dividend cuts. spain sees the worst growth since world war ii. big oil slashes dividends. powell worried about long-term growth, while ecb president christine lagarde faces pressure from investors to take on more credit risk. and strong results push shares of tech companies higher, while restaurants offer a cloudier outlook. we will speak to david gibbs, yum! brands ceo, later in the show. welcome to "bloomberg daybreak" on this thursday, april 30. some breaking earnings this morning. mcdonald's front and center. stronger than

francine: how do you do that? i am italian and i have read a number of reports that if you leave it up to hospitals, it is difficult because staff cannot get to work if they get infected. you treat this as a humanitarian crisis? in terms of resources, it is an infrastructure problem and who is the best person in the u.s. to deal with that? there is still 15% less traffic in new york, which means there are still a lot of people out there and you are in lockdown. jeffrey: i think first of all there is a need for people to understand the difference of the health of the hospital system and the public health system. wherespital system is people go with severe illnesses and where they are treated by heroes to keep them alive. that is being overwhelmed right now by the number of infections. the public health system, which we barely had for the last two months, and italy and europe barely had, is the system that says there is an epidemic. we need to find every case, track the contacts, put people in isolation so they do n

francine: what is the biggest challenge now?tions about asymptomatic cases, until you find out more it is difficult to get a handle on them. also immunity, how close are we to understanding whether people that had it can go back safely to work? lauren: there is a lot of work being done on the immunity question. because we are so early in the outbreak we have to wait to see how people them you respond to stay over time and when people are ready to go back to work without having symptoms. the biggest challenge is testing. we are trying to ramp up testing in a meaningful way and that is what every single other public health measures -- to be able to travel and reduce mask use. >> very quickly -- tom: what is the constraint on getting more testing done? supply issue of a and a lot a coordination issue. making sure the tests are in the right place and people have the ability to test all the people they need to. that you have the people to run the test. so much.en, thank you this has been hugely beneficial. lauren from johns hopkins u

francine? francine: first of all, oil is turning lower as traders assess the output cuts. gold is edging higher. it is rising toward a fresh seven-year high. i'm looking at treasuries edging higher. dollar dipping among its major peers. a lot of the focus will be on earnings. pretty uncertain earnings season. some say it won't really matter because of what we're saying. others say it is a good way of trying to figure out when they're expecting to go back tomorrow for of our normal situation. overall, i would look at the global heavyweight from the banking industry including j.p. morgan and wells fargo most of both of them come out today with earnings. tom: very good. it is time now to really address what is out there in the internet, in the space, frankly, from wall street firms. everybody has an opinion. everybody has a view on growth versus value, large-cap versus small-cap. what to do, where to find the courage to stay in cash or to be in the market. howard ward has decades of experience in looking at the growth of the moment. he is the belly where he considers growth.

francine: thanks.p later, you'll -- this is bloomberg. ♪ earlier on -- spoke to marvin king. they started asking him about the lockdown. what the best fit and it was. -- the best way to end it was. think the treasury and the bank of england has made clear they would provide whatever stimulus they judged to be needed. notresent, stimulus is needed because the government has told us to stop working. though they are trying to stop the economy from functioning, to simulate it at the same time would be a contradiction. the question of stimulus is one further down the road. the bank of england can take whatever measures appropriate very quickly. i don't think that is the immediate issue. the immediate issue is how to prevent firms and businesses from going bust. prejudgen we shouldn't what businesses will need help further down the road is that it is quite likely that no one can know at this stage that there will be a change in the pattern of spending. people's habits, how they choose to spend their money, w

francine: how many times have you been asked?> i see people ask all the time, hundreds of different people, so i don't think someone should be flattered. i'm not going to, i love what i do, i think we can make our production contribution around the world from the platform i have. francine: is that because you think you can make a bigger difference as chief executive? or you're not made for public office? jamie: it's the best i can do. do my job well and that does lift up people around the world and finance economies, cities, states, and i love it. i'll do something else one day. francine: is there a vacuum left by politics and politicians that chief executives must fill? bob: i hope not. i don't think there is anything wrong with a chief executive going into politics, but i don't think there's a vacuum that needs to be filled. the world needs great leaders. i think our political system, at least in the united states, is not designed to develop great leaders or to encourage more people to seek public office. jamie: there's probabl

francine: but what do you think is the biggest risk for the german economy right now?hate risk is certainly this recovery everybody is expecting maybe a little in the third quarter, may not be coming, or maybe very slow. as people realize this, they will adjust their plans, and we cannot exclude that the credit will spread to the other areas of the economy, to the financial sector, so there may be knock on effects of the very strong impact of the crisis, which can make the recession a lot worse. francine: so you think the applications of the german economy haven't go into full -- the implications of the german economy having to go into full lockdown will have other impacts? >>>> if companies open up, they face a large cost of getting things running again. if they then have to shut down again because there is a second wave, it is catastrophic for them, so that is some thing that needs to be avoided. i don't think we should take it for granted that a second wave comes, but there are other risks. we see that with this uncertainty. companies are really cutting down their c

francine: i need to look at some of the earnings. hsbc slipping after adjusted profit slumped. they also cautioned bad loan charges. santander air is fluctuating and novartis up after maintaining its profit forecast.

francine: i am seeing a similar data check. a lot of the focus is on earnings and u.s. jobs. that is also happening today and a lot of focus is on what christine lagarde can say in terms of extra stimulus. the economy is in a holding pattern and we got a look yesterday after encouraging news fauciach. -- which dr. said was encouraging, from gilead. a medication in treating covid-19. tom: joining us is marcus

francine: do you worry about anything being systemic?oncern that if there are defaults in shale in the u.s., it could become a systemic problem. are there sectors that you think could become something that looks like a financial crisis? is not only about oil. this is about transportation, retail. this is about everything. i think so far, if we look at the first quarter results of the u.s. banks, i think the banks have held up very well. i think we are far away from a financial crisis. , we have to stay disciplined going forward, both in terms of our capital and liquidity management, but also in terms of our cost management. that theconfident position we have puts us in a strong place to do that. credit suisseas ceo thomas koch johns speaking with us earlier. speaking gottstein with us earlier. viviana: nearly 4.5 million americans filed for unemployment, bring the total to 26 point 5 million jobs vanishing during u.s. social restrictions. the u.s. house is expected to pass the latest rescue package, and there is some doubt that points to