francine?rancine: thank you so much. let's kick it off with the u.s. and federal reserve officials are warning of the urgency of another round of fiscal aid to support the u.s. economy. the political stalemate continues and democrats and republicans are struggling to agree on what is needed. enhanced unemployment payments expired last month. republicans wanted it reduced, arguing it was too generous and discouraging people from returning to work. joining us now is john wraith from ubs. think you so much for joining us. when you look at what treasuries are looking at, what kind of stimulus do you think they are pricing in, if any? think, francine, one thing that is interesting if you look at the 10 year point on the curve, it is all about real yields. real yields are at record lows. inflation expectations are at perfectly stable levels. investors are saying that the outlook for inflation is not the outlook for real growth. so policies that stimulate that, or at least hold the economy through the

i'm francine lacqua.he markets has been trading volumes because it is august and a lot of people are still off or trading less than in the past. this is what we are looking at. if you look at the european stoxx 600. they are trading sideways. is. futures and gold bouncing back. the trumpet administration stoked tensions with beijing by imposing new restrictions on mayei technology which be giving some of a breather. advancing and gold climbing back above $2000 an ounce. let's get the latest. the race to acquire tiktok is ramping up after president trump signed an executive order on friday forcing bytedance to sell its business within 90 days. oracle is said to be considering a bid. its entry could challenge microsoft's bargaining position. for more on this, that's get to alex webb. thank you for joining us. when you look at this race, is it oracle and someone elsem and microsoft, or is it just going to be the two? alex: it seems as though oracle firms,roached some other venture capital firms about possibl

francine? francine: thank you so much.omberg's matt miller spoke to the chief executive officer. equity markets have also crossed before asset prices have peaked again, so i would not suspect that this is very, i mean, unusual opportunities to buy existing assets for very low prices, not in our industry. matt: so you see basically inflation there because of all of it, let's say, green new deals or the fiscal help that is being given to that side of the business. is it becoming more competitive? markus: on the one hand, it is becoming more competitive. you see the big oil companies, and there is no surprise that they are renewable and the power sector, because it is a very attractive sector, given the market growth we expect in the decades to come. but yes, if you look at what is needed to be successful, you need the expertise, which we have, you need the pipeline. there is no scarcity of money. the market growth is there, so a lot of players will be happy in that field. but i also expect competition over time will increase

francine: this is bloomberg "surveillance". i'm francine lacqua in london. england signaling the case for more monetary stimulus is growing as the rebound from the pandemic and recession risks fade. when you look at the bank of england, what options do they have? >> well, it is the same option that every other central bank has which is to do for quantitative easing. it can take different forms, mortgages, private debt, equities. the bank of england is not at that point but rates are rock bottom. he stimulus, more q.e. some guidance which the fed is about to embark upon right now u.k. is in a spectacular position to u.s. where the initial rebound has not morphed into the v that everybody hoped for with our fingers all crossed. it is clear now that it is going to be a much longer slog to get the economy back to something like normal. we don't have a vaccine. we need entless support from banks and fiscal authorities. francine: when you look at the case for negative rates, do you see bank of england going negative rates? and what does that mean for the u.k. econ

francine? francine: thank you so much. the u.k.ered its deepest recession on record after a second quarter slump with the economy contracting 20.4%. chancellor rishi sunak confirms -- says the data confirms that many more jobs will be lost in the coming months. joining us is paul dales. great to have you on bloomberg surveillance. what does that mean for boe policy going forward? paul: well, i think it means the bank of england will have to do much more than the financial markets currently expect, so i get the since that the market -- by 100 billion pounds by the end of this year. at capital economics, we think it will eventually do 250 billion pounds in three steps. so the message here is that although in some ways the recession is over because we know output is growing, it is going to feel like a recession for a long time, and i think policymakers will have to continue to give the economy or support. francine: is qe enough, or with the bank of england go into negative rates? not completely rule that out, but the bank of england s

francine? -- this is bloomberg. lisa? francine? francine: a lot of the focus is on the but turn a vaccine and some of the breakthroughs we are seeing there. with bond yields, gold rebounding after finding simulated support below $1900 an ounce. here in europe, it is clear the banks are offsetting drops in tech and real estate shares on the european stoxx 600. the pound holding to the drop yesterday versus the euro. we had some ugly data showing the u.k. economy contracted last quarter by more than any other economy in europe. data,picking up on that it is interesting to try to understand why there is a risk-on tone today, nasdaq futures leading up, exceeding the performance right now in the s&p, a contrast of the past few days. we saw the nasdaq underperforming. meanwhile, we are also seeing the 10-year yield dip up a little bit, your adding a little of that selloff extended. and the dollar a little bit stronger. actually, the euro a little bit stronger versus the dollar. crude oil going up a little bit. it is hard to understand wh

francine?ncine: congress is still struggling to agree on a new stimulus deal a week after the $600 a week payments expired. republicans are looking to president trump to take executive action, house speaker nancy pelosi slammed the offer from the administration is not going far enough. support --ays to applications for u.s. unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week to the lowest since march, but the july jobs report, out later today, could also show the effect of further lockdowns and uncertainty. still with us is andrew sheets from morgan stanley. andrew, how do you see this playing out? are we going to get some kind of stimulus package? if we don't get it at the end of this week, does it kind of died down or could we get it a week or two weeks from now? andrew: well, look, i think a lot of the risks here are kind of negatively skewed. we don't know exactly where the negotiations stand. all indications are that agreement on any major part of the deal still remains elusive. these are ta

francine?ncine: and sticking with the estimate for full-year payouts, despite taking a hit in the first half zÜrich insurance. it is the second largest europe insurer, bracing for the impact of covid-19. joining us now is the company chief executive, mario greco. joiningo, thank you for us. when you look at the insurance business, 2020 has been rough for people but especially the insurance business. what could you tell us about the beirut blast? what does that mean for insurance? the incident was in precedented -- unprecedented, but beside the losses, beside the claims, it indicates the need for change in serving the customers. we are moving towards a position.led we took this time to accelerate our digital investments. we upgraded our services. we have been able to serve our customers over the last six months from home with the offices practically closed everywhere. thate are quite confident we will keep improving this over time. francine: what needs to happen for the insurance industry to be

i am francine lacqua in london.his is what the markets are doing , european stocks moving to the downside gorsuch any trading sideways, despite record highs on wall street. this is what we are also looking at when it comes to gold, always look at gold because it gives you a good sense of where there is appetite, slipping back below $2000 on ounce. we saw declines in utilities outweighing gains in travel shares, of the stoxx 600 actually gained. up, the chief executive of the hong kong exchanges and clearing joins us for an interview after the company posted a record first-half profit. . that is in a couple. of minutes let's get straight to the bloomberg first word news. we start with joe biden, it is official. he has become the democraticc nominee for president. the second night saw a slate of speakers, from former president bill clinton to representative alexandria ocasio cortez. biden himself will close out the event on thursday night. president donald trump said he called off last weekends trade talks with china.

i'm francine lacqua in london. markets are moving on the back we need tonsions spend time on and we have euro area pmi's coming in a touch better than expected but i'm not sure if it is moving euro-dollar that much. 39 .80, always a good test looking at command and what it means for the world economy. point 1764 and we look at her earnings with a couple of disappointments in the banking sector. joint manufacturing pmi coming in at 51.8 instead of 51.1. let's get the first word news with laura wright. laura: the u.s. plans to act against a wide range of chinese owned software companies, not just tiktok. that's the latest from secretary of state mike pompeo speaking to fox news. on friday, president trump told supporters he plans to ban the app. pompeo said the decision should come soon. the u.k. is considering the worst case in a real of locking down london according to the sunday times. it would see at risk people asked to stay at home. the local government secretary says he is not aware of any specific plans to se

francine: backlash.pushback abundance -- against the is really agreement and normalized relations. businesses,n says including theaters, beauty bowlers, and theater -- beauty parlors, and movie gators can open. -- movie theaters can open. interview with digital shortly. lisa abramowicz is stepping in for tom keene in new york. a great oure had talking about emerging markets, and we look over to talking about not only possible bankruptcies but politics of the u.s.. lisa: what is interesting to me is how many risk factors there are. we have election uncertainty, trade talks kicking off over the weekend, and of course the pandemic. markets are looking at the wave of liquidity dominating the narrative. inin

francine? francine: thanks. on trade, the six-month review of the trade deal has been called off. president donald trump, meanwhile, has continued to make his tough position on china a key in the lead up to the election. they are continuing to blame china for the coronavirus. now, let's get the latest. a look at all of the trade for us. what exactly happened? know whato not really happened to the talks. they were never on the public scheduled to begin with, either on the u.s. side or from the chinese side. they were supposed to be sort of a routine catch-up, a status report, on the trade deal that was signed in january. but, obviously, they could not get enough together ahead of the to even holdcide it. you would not hold a conference call like this that is being reported in the press unless you had some kind of deliverable that you can't announce afterwards, so, obviously, they got to a point where they just figured out, we cannot accomplish anything, so let's not even have the call. now, whet

francine? francine: i think it is a fancy day for wednesday to check. simple, european stocks are higher, u.s. futures as well. investors seem to continue signaling optimism in the post-pandemic rally, after shower shares hit an all-time hh in the s&p 500, and gold went ounce.an $2000 an speaking about inflation, your area, july consumer prices are down 0.4%, a touch below estimates. core prices are in line with what we were expecting, year-on-year at 1.2%. to talk about inflation and some of their positioning, we are delighted to be joined by mark dowding, bluebay asset management ceo. what do you see right now in the european yield? where do you want to be in? mark: in many respects, it is a quiet summer, we are seeing markets in pretty benign fashion and risk assets climbing. credit spreads tighter, and for the time being, easing toward owning assets where central banks continue to periphery, european owning investment grade credit is where you need to be positioned. but there is a sense that we have that may be some of the rest of the rally -- the b

francine lacqua in london, tom in new york.e have steven major, looking at yields the way he suggested they would go. we don't know why they go there, but they get there. steven major, an open question to get in front of your essay. what is the unexpected out there that has your attention? expect the unexpected? let's go all market thatcher -- margaret thatcher right now. what is the unexpected in the full faith and credit that you are worried about? steven: i am worried about things getting worse than they already are. i know most people might come on the show and talk about inflation and inflation surprises. a lot of that is loosely based on what's going on with -- i don't agree with any of that. is mainlysupply explained by increased savings, and savings have gone up for a very good reason. it is risk aversion. i would be worried that policymakers are scraping the bottom of the toolbox, looking for new tools. i heard the bank of england talk about various tools that are in the box, which is all very well because it is saying

francine? francine: jennifer, the republican national convention is next week.t are we expecting? jennifer: details are still trickling in about what exactly we will see at the rnc. unlike the democrats, who opted earlyvirtual convention on, president trump was hoping to do something in person and crowds, which is what he is used to, but the speakers that we know for sure are going to be some up-and-coming republicans, like nikki haley and senator tim scott, also some unconventional choices, like the missouri couple that waved assault style weapons at peaceful protesters earlier this summer that caused a lot of controversy. but separate from that, you know, president trump is expected to make a personal appearance every night of the election and accept his nomination at the white house, something that has been criticized on both sides. but, you know, i think we all have to remember that president trump is a former tv producer, and he has been following what has been happening at the dnc very closely over the past few days, actually live tweeting a lot of the eve

francine? tom? .- this is bloomberg' francine? tom? tom: 30 year bond, the tips that everybody is following. the real yield, -.99 percent. francine? francine: european stocks are actually fluctuating. if you look at, you know, full faith and technology lead rally, chanced by poor economic data from the region that you mentioned, france pmi is significant, falling estimates. it also germany was disappointing. so i'm looking at the euro go down a touch, and if you look at the offshore fund, rising to the strong this level in seven months against the dollar, china's economic market rebound from the pandemic was one of the fastest in the world. so keep an eye on china and what they will know next. tom: we could go many ways in a three hour conversation with kevin cirilli. unfortunately, we only have minutes here. what i want to do with our chief washington correspondent is drive forward the conversation. at first, last night, vice president biden. mr. biden: as president, the first step i will take, we need to get control of the virus that

francine: could he try to break them up?has been sort his impulse has been, be sympathetic to move toward regulation in other areas because he is unhappy with the way they treat his account. am -- therey trumpi have been tele-tory attitudes when it comes to social media. i do not think a breakup is in prospect. i think what we sought the house hearing was that there really are good reasons why all of these big social media and internet companies need to have more oversight. i do not think retaliation is the issue right now. tom: david kirkpatrick, thank you so much. >> thanks. tom: author of "the facebook effect." twice in one week is too much. i can't say enough about the book, though. seriously. the data is moving. to turkish lira continues unravel due to the knock on effect of what receipt in beirut. movement is so great, i have got to look at the screen in real time. enteric your city, ritika gupta. >> both democrats and republicans are looking at the clock as they try to negotiate a new stimulus package. democrats want

matthew: good morning, francine.o not think there is any issue with treasuries being in short supply. in fact, if the government in the united states comes together on another stimulus package, there is going to be even more supply for the market to take down. having said that, the federal reserve, in its attempt to stimulate the economy, has been removing a lot of supply from the market every month, i am talking $80 billion worth of u.s. treasuries a month they are removing from the marketplace. many investors expect that to continue for the foreseeable future. supply, butnty of the fed is removing a decent amount of it. nevertheless, when we look at 2021 across not just the u.s. treasury market but global sovereign markets more broadly, we are going to have a year where the private sector will have to take down more government bonds than they have had to take down in a decade. year going to be quite the for government bond supply. that is important. if the economic environment continues to evolve as morgan stanley'

tom and francine? francine: thank you so much. that $500 million jackpot, let's speak to the co-author of the story. liam, first of all, who are they and how did they make so much money? it's a couple of traders on top of a pub. [laughter] >> that's pretty much about why. it is a prop firm that is essentially an umbrella for may be a couple dozen traders at most. soy were formed in 2016, nobody has really heard of the firm at all. most of the trade is grizzled veterans of the market trading since the days of the pit, and it looks like after hanging in there, with the arrival of theyation in the markets, hit pay dirt. unfortunately for them, it attracted the attention of the regulators. markets fell that afternoon to -$37. vega was essentially paid by oil, and it also sold oil that day so it got paid on both sides of the trade. it was completely unprecedented and they ended up walking away with a large amount of money. tom: it is a 4.4 standard deviation on oil that day. i get that. that is off of the bloomberg terminal, fine. that

francine? francine: thank you so much.says it is ready to help ella bruce in the face of unprecedented protests. hundred of thousands of people demonstrating over the weekend against the disputed election results which saw alexander lukashenko return to power. they are now demanding his immediate resignation. a prudent offered support to resolve the country's problems -- vladimir putin offered support to resolve the country's problems. tory, always great to speak with you. when you look at how much support vladimir putin can give belarus -- first of all, what is at stake for russia if lukashenko ultimately falls? >> hello. belarus is a key geopolitical buffer for russia. it stands between russia and three nato countries, and it is one of the last remaining allies that russia has along the border there. so it is quite an important moment. now, in terms of what support russia is willing to give, that is the big question. the statement over the weekend was vague. it is not clear what they can do . putin confirmed that russia

francine? francine: thank you so much. is briefinger reporters.says he is disappointed with the outcome but they still have two months to find an agreement. of course, we were trying to get from both sides, he says -- again, he took note of the u.k. decision not to extend a transition. and this was, tom, the biggest question, whether the u.k. at the end of the day come at the 11th hour, decided to extend, or whether they would rather go into a double tao agreement january 1, 2021. coming up, we speak with professor of international relations peter trubowitz. this is bloomberg. ♪ experience the ultimate sports hub. where you can find games, news and highlights. all in one place, right on your tv. the xfinity sports zone. use your voice to search every stat and score. follow the teams you love. and, even get notifications with breaking news alerts and more. with the xfinity sports zone everybody wins. now that's simple, easy, awesome. say xfinity sports zone into your voice remote today. mr. biden: the current president forcourted american doctors t

i am francine lacqua.e start with apple and corporate news, the world's most valuable publicly traded company just hit a new milestone. apples rally pushed the market cap to $2 trillion, the first time in american company hit that level. it took apple 48 years to hit the first trillion dollar value, and the next trillion dollars only took two years. airbnb has filed to go public as the company emerges from the effect of the coronavirus pandemic. the price range has not been set. airbnb already began seeing signs of recovery in june. bookings were down only 30% from a year earlier compared to 70% in may. delivery hero is replacing wirecard in the dax index, and the food company has gained almost 50% since january as the lockdown boosted demand. position may spark controversy. the company has yet to have a single profitable year. and that is the bloomberg business flash. the on to u.s. politics, polls are projecting joe biden will win, but as the markets prepare for a potential biden presidency, proposals fr

francine? tom? tom: coming up a timely conversation in the 8:00 hour. mr. kaplan of the dallas fed. there is so what's going on, including the markets telling the fed what to do, this new lower weight regime that we see. robert kaplan in the 8:00 hour. this is bloomberg. good morning. ♪ tom: good morning, everyone. "bloomberg surveillance." the jobs report way out there. at the end of the week. it seems a million miles away. kaplan coming up from the dallas fed in a few hours. arvind barth from barclays joining us. i want to tie in on something that last week i think we really underplayed, and that is emerging markets, fiscal and fx dynamics. we know the argentinian story. i think people have a good grasp of turkey unraveling, but as a general statement, what is the knock-on effect of a developed economy slow down on e.m.? there isell, i think actually several different things going on here, tom. we talked about it before, this idea that actually with the advent of increasing automation and ai,

francine: first of all, i would like to qualify it, it is a well caffeinated francine lacqua that joinsou. we are looking at michel barnier , the chief negotiator on the european commission side, briefing reporters in brussels about the fact that there just wasn't enough progress. that is having an impact on sterling, and it does seem that both the eu and the u.k. are worried that there is just not enough progress for the moment to find a deal before the end of december. but remember, they still have two months to negotiate. the u.k. has once again said they won't ask for an extension. it could be like the eu, where at the 11th hour, they find an u.k.ment, or that the would rather not find any agreement and go to wto rules. tom: is europe heading back to recession? is that the right phrase? francine: this time you are talking about, for example, the german numbers and the french numbers, which were really quite shocking. what was interesting if you look at the pattern sets the lockdown started in march, initially we had better-than-expected figures in terms of gdp growth, and today the

francine: skyhigh.00 shoots above its highest ever closing level before finishing a few points shy of the mark. no compromise. democrats and republicans point the finger at each other. the two sides remain trillions apart on the similars package. boston -- on the stimulus package. the boston fed president says over eagerness to reopen the economy has backfired for the united states. welcome to bloomberg surveillance. francine lacqua in london, lisa abramowicz stepping in for tom keene in new york. we've got unemployment figures in the u.s.. lisa: 2020 is not a normal year end this is not a normal august. many people cannot get away for vacation. really focusing on the labor market, people talking about improvement, but we cannot forget how unusual it

francine: yes. just so you know, the subscription model is actually that you buy for disney+, and you don't have to buy each time. we will have the experts on that. lebanon was, already on its knees. this will just push it further into difficult territory. let's get straight to the bloomberg first word news in new york city. here's ritika gupta. ritika: the pictures are incredibly intense. that explosion at a warehouse in beirut was felt miles away, and field hospitals with casualties. reports are at least 100 were killed and some 4000 injured. almost's government says 3000 tons of ammonium nitrate was stored in the building, but they are not saying whether the blast was caused by an accident or an attack. the white house and democrats are trying to strike a deal on virus relief legislation i the end of the week, according to treasury secretary steven mnuchin. the two sides aren't close to a deal yet, but did agree to a timeline. one of the main sticking points is still the extension of supplemental

francine: it does make sense.o you think that a lot of the fiscal support is endless, or will governments start worrying about debt? peter: it is close to endless for the time being, i would say. debt levels are very high anyway, and we just add to that and the central banks are scooping up. it is what i call through at least a corporation if not a semi-fusion of fiscal and monetary policy, and that is going to be here for a long period of time. unless we run into serious problems in placing the debt, the remaining debt on the private markets, which i don't think we will in the western economies. i think this will go on for a very long period of time. , andthere is a trend here does that trend lead to negative interest rates in the united kingdom? peter: we have a call out there that we think the bank of england will cut interest rates into negative territory at one point. in my mind, that stems on the one hand from a very bad handing of the virus situation from a relatively poor growing economy to begin with, and

francine? francine: laura, thank you so much. before policymakers voted unanimously to keep asset targets at 45 billion pounds and hold rates at a record low 0.1%. -- boe says its is to the downside. joining us now is john bilton, who is head of global multiaxial strategy -- multi-asset strategy at jp morgan. if you had one question for him, is that the fact that forecasts are going the opposite, but they also seem to try to give the message to the market that they are not tightening any? time soon cowed do you soon? time how do you square up the two? john: obviously monetary policy is a perfect exercise in learning by doing. you have to take information in real-time, but at the same time, you're looking to balance risk. i think some good news came out today, which is the fact we are seeing consumption happening, coming up a little bit. we are seeing some positivity on the strength of the rebound. the unemployment rate, which will continue to be a drag on the u.k. economy. but what i think andrew bailey has rightly done is recogn

francine: i'm also looking

francine and tom?we are committed at bloomberg surveillance to having medical professionals speak to us about the virus. every once in a while and this pandemic, you have to listen to the politicians speak about the virus. >> to everyone that supported other candidates in the primary and to those that may have voted for donald trump in the last election -- watching new york get ambushed by their negligence and watch new york suffer. today, six months after it began, the nation is still unprepared. we had a national strategy. everyone who needs a test gets one for free. everyone has access to a safe vaccine. >> more than 150 thousand people have died and our economy is in shambles because of a virus that this president downplayed for too long. >> the truth is, even before trumps negligent response, too many hard-working families have been caught on an economic treadmill. tom: we go to the experts. one of them we spoke to a few at theas pamela university of manchester in the united kingdom. esteemed and

francine: it is. cfa level three. stocks are dropping much of the world after the fed continued its concern of the pandemic. that is maybe hurting at the margin level. what i am also looking at is the euro. slipping on the release of the minutes. i would like to remind everyone that the number of cases of infected with coronavirus is also going up. i want to quickly show you oil in america. 42.44 after the opec decision yesterday. tom: tonight will be most interesting. by some measurements it has been a 32 year pass for vice president biden to speak to his party, his nation. kevin, i look forward to the 10:00 hour tonight, the scheduled speech of the vice president. who will he speak to? >> the country. this is his major opportunity to win over swing voters, rally independent voters to show up at the polls on november 3. also tonight is chris coons, a democrat from delaware. no doubt a voice that will have a central role and a biden administration should biden win. beyond that, i think more broadly speaking what we sa

francine: what would it take for you to go into negative rates? lot of central banks that have done them. i draw two points. thisas you get into territory, there is a much bigger interaction with the structure of your financial system, particularly your banking system. is expecting retail rates to be negative, and i understand why. it means the bigger the share of retail deposits in banking funding the more it affects negative rates. we have quite a high share of retail funding in the banking system, so that is one thing. the second thing i would conclude looking at the experience of others central banks is the effectiveness depends upon what point of the cycle you are easing. yourself would you see using negative rights post covid, in the recovery phase, to help the economy? guest: we are not facing that situation today. that when youtrue look at the experience of other appear to but they have worked more effectively in the recovery phase. , qualify thater by saying there is a tricky identification issue at that point as to what extent it is nega

i am francine lacqua here in london.ow, let's get straight to the bloomberg business flash we start with pfizer. the covid vaccine they are working on is on track for regulatory exchange next october. it would make it one of the fastest moving vaccines in the world. they previously secured a deal to supply 100 million doses to the u.s. has a stay in california. a judge has allowed to challenge a previous order complying with the state law. the state wants them to treat workers as employees, a move that would upend their business model. pay $1.6 agreed to billion over is now withdrawn essure device. it caused bleeding and failed to prevent pregnancy. 39,000 lawsuits, considerably more than bayer paid to the company that actually made the device.

i am francine lacqua in london. we are also getting a cut of an oil demand forecast amid the darkening of the travel situation. if we go straight to the markets and have a look at those, the story really is with these stocks, so yesterday, the stocks had quite a big move, and we are trying to figure out exactly what that means for the earnings forecast for the future. what else i am looking at is crude oil, as you see, $42.56, after the iaea report, and the litmus test, in terms of risk appetite, gold at 1930. are signs of faltering after stimulus talks in washington remain at deadlock. now, let's get straight to the bloomberg first word news. reporter: hi, francine. a warning that a failure to control the pandemic is undermining the economic recovery. the boston fed president says

francine, thank you.ack to mattie and let's hear what questions and comments we are hearing from listeners. thank you. >> thank you, josh. >> a lot of things. one says thank you for your wonderful research. could you tell us why the allies decided to establish a nuremberg -- at nuremberg a military tribunal and not a civil tribunal and what was the consequences of this decision. >> that is such great question. that is such great question. part of why they decide to establish a military tribunal is so that they don't have to follow all the rules of a regular tribunal, and remember at the start, some -- it's interesting. the soviets are pressing for a try bruinal. the british are reluctant. in part because are these really crimes is a war of aggression a crime? it's ex post facto law enforcement crimes against humanity, it's not clear, can you -- how is that going to work exactly, and so they're concerned that if it's a regular tribunal, then there's just going to be -- it's going to be more difficult, lega

tom keene, francine is off this morning.fascinating set of days since chairman powell upon important speech at jackson hole. bloomberg finished strong with robert kaplan and a conversation with michael mckee. hisas delicate in interpretation of his chairman's delicate about the statistic of 2.2%. >> it's possible it will take a while to get to 2%. technology, technology enabled disruption in particular are limiting the pricing power of businesses and inflation has been muted for close to 10 years. policy articulation is really a reaffirmation of the situation we have been operating in and our decision function for the last few years. radical shift, it's an affirmation that we are in a more muted inflation period. , but i don'tge view this policy articulation as a radical change, it's a reaffirmation of the way we have been operating. thate new policy is appropriate monetary policy will likely aim to achieve inflation moderately above 2% for some time. how do you define moderately above and how do you define some time? robert

anna edwards is in london, in for francine lacqua. i looked at the death statistics of the pandemic, and the success of the united kingdom is absolutely extraordinary. the way they have brought down deaths from the pandemic is just superb compared to america, and frankly, many other countries. can you feel that in the nation? is the nation aware of the success of that? feels very different, i have to say, tom. bringing them down is one thing, allowing them to spike up in the first place is another. and a lot of criticism around the govern how it handled the initial stages of the outbreak, and in particular the care for the elderly, allowing it to take off the way it did in care homes. tom: it is interesting to see and we will be covering this throughout the week, from johns hopkins university as well. this final week of the summer -- in america, late labor day, september 7. so it is sort of an odd and to the summer at least here in america. right now on monday, here is ritika gupta. from recovered patients will be expanded to more sic

francine: what would it take for you to grow the rates?st: we talked to a lot of central banks who have done them. it is very helpful and fascinating. as you get into this territory, there is a much bigger interaction with the structure of your banking system. obviously, it means the bigger the share of retail t deposits, the more it affects negative rates. we have had our share of retail funding in the banks. the second thing, i would conclude looking at the experiences from the other central banks that the negative rates depends on at what point in the cycle you are using it. francine: would you see yourself using negative rates in a post covid recovery phase to help the economy? guest: i don't know is the answer because we are not facing that situation today. you look at the experience of other countries they appear to work much more effectively in the recovery phase. that a, however, qualify bit by saying there is a tricky issue at that point as to what extent it is negative rates driving the recovery of the banking system, the release

anna edwards is in for francine lacqua. we appreciate your long day here in "bloomberg surveillance." stimulus in germany, what gets your attention this morning? anna: stimulus in germany is it. of we have been watching what has been going on on the louisiana coast for the latest headlines on hurricane laura, that has preoccupied people. here in europe, also waiting on the latest developments from jackson hole. just as we see laura weakening to a category three hurricane, although we know they can still linger it still do damage. tom: 120 miles per hour maximum wind, but the landfall of 160 was extraordinary. the shape of the storm has changed as well.

francine: it's not something you would rule out, it could happen? >> the message we are giving today is they are in the box. there are other central banks that say they are not in the box because their financial systems have different properties and they draw different conclusions. are not the box and we considering using them at the moment. the bank of england governor speaking earlier today. us is the bank of america u.k. chief economist. i will take a phrase from boris johnson in the u.k. in involves having your cake and eating it. does andrew bailey want to have his cake and eat it? is he happy that the market is pricing positive rates because that would have a positive effect on the economy in his mind but he probably is in the position where he doesn't actually want to deliver? yes, is the short answer. [indiscernible] you get it by getting the markets and cross negative rates. you cannot forever have your cake and eat it. eventually it will not be there to eat it. to deliverave negative rates at some point if necessary. i think that point is

tom: the governor of the bank of england with francine lacqua. this is an important statement by him, and as you mentioned earlier, this focus on negative rates, forget about that. it is the focus on the dynamics of lower yields. jonathan: flirting with a negative interest rate. they are in the box, but we don't want to use them yet. i don't think they are anywhere near to deploying negative interest rates at the bank of england, just going through the monetary policy report. there's no conviction, no consensus on this issue. esearly, the governor se a benefit in continuing to flirt with the concept, even if they don't deploy it. tom: this discussion is about the commercial banking industry, and that is where our next guest really fits in. the ramifications of this econ econo-babble.is jonathan: bloomberg's marcus ashworth joins us now. where is the effective lower bound for the bank of england? now.s: 0.1% where they are the only thing they should think about lowering is the provision for banks to reach into a pot of the small andr medium enterp

guy johnson in for francine lacqua in london. monthsin to the summer in august. i look at the newspapers in the united kingdom and it is sort of a soup of distractions right now. inme and update on the virus the united kingdom, because the statistics i look at are actually pretty good. guy:. they are pretty good, tom, and there are large parts of the country where people are talking about the fact that we may have achieved herd immunity. you listen to the commentary come out of a large hospital, -- out of large hospitals, they are seeing a fraction of the number of cases they saw coming through the door back in the spring. the situation seems to be under control. this is pumping boris johnson the prime minister, to make firm assertions that schools will september, in the same way governor cuomo is making those assertions in new york. thathe is pretty lonely on right now. that will be one of our themes without question in august. back to school on order. but will they be back to school? here is ritika gupta. ritika: in hong kong, it is the highest profile case yet

ceohat was the novartis speaking with bloomberg's francine lacqua.atch the full episode of leaders with flacqua during the first week of september. let's get a bloomberg news update. calling on the u.s. government to require masks for the next three months. he says that approach could save more than 40,000 lives, adding, it is not about your right. it is about your responsibility. donald trump saying it would be unenforceable. israel and the united arab emirates have agreed to begin normalizing diplomatic relations. the deal was brokered by the u.s. a key step toward peace in the region. the sides will hold talks in the coming weeks. israel has agreed to suspend its efforts to annex parts of the west bank. palestinian officials called the move a betrayal. the white house has no plans to do away with payroll tax altogether despite donald trump saying he would repeal it permanently with another term. the idea of doing away with the tax is unlikely to get support in congress. it could drive up the deficit trillions of dollars. plus spell the end of soci

guy johnson in london in for francine. i'm tom keene in new york.o .86.ures up you just mentioned, guy, italy, 10 year, another example of the risk on feel that we've got. guy: it is another example of the ecb dominating the market. it cares less about the capital than it once did. it has been buying italy aggressively. the spread had tightened. is it a realistic reflection of the risk between those economies? a number people -- a number of people are questioning that right now. tom: that is the artificiality that we see in the markets. ane foley, how do you play new risk on feel. if the vix goes from 80 to 21.18, what do we knew next? jane: first of all, we need to focus on the data coming out. there is good news priced in, but the data that keeps coming out is not particularly encouraging. data isa, you kate gdp going to be even worse probably. from that point of view, i think we need to be quite cautious. i think there is a lot of very good news and a lot of assets already purchased in. tom: the greatest debate i see besides australian dollar, ja

francine: what would it take for you to go into negative rates?> we have talked a lot to central banks who have done them, ghanaian, come out, those who have not yet gone in and come out, very helpful in fascinating conversations. i draw two points. one, as you get into this territory, there is a much bigger interaction with the structure of your financial system, in particular the structure of your banking system. no one is sending retail deposit rates negative, but i can understand why. it means the bigger the share of retail deposits in your banking system funding, the more attenuated the effect of negative rates will be. share of quite a retail funding and the banking system. the second thing, i would conclude that the effects of negative rates depend upon what point in the cycle you are using them at, and that is an interaction with the financial system as well. yourself do you see using negative rates, post covid? will it help the economy then? >> i don't know because we are not facing a situation today. -- that situation today. it is true t

a little later on, francine lacqua conversation with governor andrew bailey.dsey piegza with us of stifel, their chief economist. there are three claims statistics, the weekly number, the moving average of that same number, and then continuing claims get which will you look at hardest? lindsey: i am going to look at the headline initial number because it is going to give us a sense of the momentum in the labor market. claims had been trending down. we had seen that improvement. but last week, we did see that a. i will be looking to see whether we see further improvement, or if we continue to see a reversal , settingmproving trend the tone for friday's number as we are seeing two very divergent seams. on one hand, we know that businesses were in a big rush to reopen and rehire in july. on the other hand, we have the realistic assessment that the number of covid cases was rapidly rising in the country at the start of the third quarter. many states that had planned to continue to reopen actually halted those plans or reversed course entirely. so we have to see ho

. ♪ francine: welcome to "bloomberg etf iq: europe."e next 30 minutes, we will be your guide to the market and exchange traded funds. everything you need to know about the funds and the flows. ♪ francine: still shining, eight of the 10 best-performing etf's focused on gold. gold bullion can keep on climbing. european etf assets top the $1 trillion mark.

anna edwards is in london, in for francine lacqua. death statistics of the pandemic, and the success of the united kingdom is absolutely extraordinary. the way they have brought down deaths from the

for francine in london. we have been watching a most difficult speech from shinzo abe and japan. stabilityas brought he brought his three arrows around monetary policy, fiscal policy, economic reform area how long will those policies be ?arried on in japan it is certainly something moving fx markets. tom: our stephen engle with us in a bit. to 1955, between essentially the rural party, the natural lbp party, and the parliamentarians. mr. abe has straddled that divide for many, many years. with our news in new york city, here's what -- here's ritika gupta. ritika: the longest serving prime minister in japan's history is resigning. shinzo abe is stepping down after eight because of health reasons -- after eight years because of health reasons. reports say he has been undergoing treatment for a chronic digestive condition. he agreed to stay on until the ruling party picks a successor. donald trump made his case for a second term last night at the republican national convention. he promised to create 10 million jobs in 10 months enter in the u.s. into a manufacturing superpower. pres

anna edwards is in for francine lacqua. we appreciate your long day here in "bloomberg surveillance." stimulus in germany, what gets your attention this morning? anna: stimulus in germany is it. of we have been watching what has been going on on the louisiana coast for the latest headlines on hurricane laura, that has preoccupied people. here in europe, also waiting on the latest developments from jackson hole. just as we see laura weakening to a category three hurricane, although we know they can still linger it still do damage. tom: 120 miles per hour maximum wind, but the landfall of 160 was extraordinary. the shape of the storm has changed as well. with our first word news in new york, here is ritika gupta. ritika: good morning. it is one of the most powerful storms ever to hit louisiana. you were just discussing hurricane laura, it made landfall near cameron, louisiana with maximum winds of 150 miles per hour, plus there is a threat of a catastrophic storm surge and flash flooding. there is concern that damage could le