francine: davide serra from algebris.ar from the belarus opposition leader, sviatlana on the ukraine and latest developments there. this is bloomberg. ♪ francine: welcome back to the open. 51 minutes into the open trading day. u.s. futures trimming earlier losses after you clear -- after ukraine said a fire caused by russian missiles is out. this is according to ukrainian officials raising the stakes in vladimir putin's invasion as his forces bombard cities across the country. one key ally for russia is ella roos. lukashenko allowed belarus to be used as a preparing ground. his government has been bankrolled by moscow for many years. joining us now is sviatlana tsikhanouskaya, former presidential candidate for belarus and a key opposition figure. also joining us is maria tadeo from brussels. thank you for joining us. how would you describe belarus' involvement right now? are they bombing and occupying ukraine? >> let me correct you. lukashenko is not the president of our country. he lost the legitimacy in our country. but

francine? francine: thank you so much.g up, we will speak to our guest about london energy's transformation. don't miss that conversation. he is up next. this is bloomberg. ♪ francine: welcome back to the open. a lot of banks are coming out with their exposure to russia. won says it has an exposure of about $7 billion. they are getting slammed and it is dragging the stoxx 600. the dax down 4.3%. that has lost more than 20% since their january high. let's once again get a look at what stocks are on the move with dani burger. dani: this is capitulation levels of selling that we are seeing this morning, adding onto an already ugly week last week. if you look into the sectors, some of the worst are autos and banks. they have been battling for which is falling the most. both are down more than 30% from their peaks. beyond a bear market for these specific sectors. autos down worth than four point 3% -- down more than 4.3%. you already had a supply chain for the auto sector. banks, you were just laying that out. it is the direct

francine: thanks so much.e're become with sharon bell of goldman sachs and lynn thompson from bloomberg. it is very clear whatever is driving the markets is the fear of inflation. what role does fiscal spending have on this and how much can it support a stagflationry economy? >> i mentioned earlier this company rses were in a good state, they have a lot of cash flow. the problem for government is through the pandemic, they have a lot of debt. that doesn't mean though that they can't attempt to provide cushion to consumers. in particular they are going to be looking to provide,000 cushion to lower end income households that will suffer more because obviously for those households, they went through their savings during the pandemic and energy is a bigger portion of their income too. interest rates relatively low. the government has built up a lot of debt. they can raise revenues from companies, through higher taxation. francine: i guess the other question is what does it mean for a lot of the currencies that we'

francine: thank you so much, charlotte.le the war rages on in ukraine, nato leaders meet in brussels. we will get the latest on the ground. this is bloomberg. ♪ francine: welcome back to the open. here are your stock stories. china pledges to back overseas listings. the worn ukraine rages. president zelensky will -- bracing for fed day, markets prepare for the first rate hike since 2018. china stole a lot of that limelight. that supporting the broader market spring the ftse gaining 1.5%. stocks overall surged after concerns that investors had at the forefront of their mind. sectors on the move it's really those in the last couple of weeks. i cannot underestimate would big move this could mean after weeks of worries about higher inflation in china just came in saying we will put a floor over it. certainly technology getting support. travel and leisure services. we will have plenty more of course. u.s. secretary of defense is speaking alongside the nato secretary-general. >> we will continue to support them going forward. we'

francine: mark, thank you. president joe biden has slept president putin in his state of the union address, calling him a dictator. >> he badly miscalculated. he thought he could roll into ukraine and the world would roll over. instead, he was met with a wall of strength he had never anticipated. he met the ukrainian people. francine: that is as russia is pushing forward with its military advances. western forces warned that the invasion is entering a new deadly face. maria tadeo joins us with the latest on ukraine but we also have many panelists here with me. we also have kristine aquino for the latest market moves. where do officials see this going for the next 48 hours? maria: there is a concern that this is going to escalate. we have seen the a craning -- the ukrainian people saying that russia is becoming more aggressive and indiscriminate on the air because they do not want to find -- fight on the ground. they have faced resistance from the ukrainian army also potential civil unrest. they have problems wi

francine: you like u.s. equities above all or there certain parts of the emerging market that are attractive in this environment? >> we remain cautious of emerging markets. it might not be the moment to reenter. we are looking at stocks that are insulated from the conflict. we are playing it very tactically at the moment. francine: how much more difficult will it be in terms of understanding what central banks do. what will a central bank policy mistake look like? monica: the ecb is not at all and in a position. as such, they said they would be flexible. we see information between our forecast when it goes through your plate -- european inflation that we expect to be the downside. we understand the u.s. consumers reasonably happy so the market sees pricing in seven hikes. we might have some space through the summer. we can leave less pressure on the fed for this tightening with the fine tune. francine: do you believe in general both of these central banks are late to incite the inflation. >> this narrative h

the problem is that no one will francine: buy. francine:-- no one will buy. francine: looking at commodity, everything is moving. how we touch the highs or how long this'll have to play out? kristine: the trajectory will have to do with how the situation plays out, whether there is some kind of escalation in the conflict or de-escalation. i think that really will be very much tied commodities. lesser is any sign of de-escalation at the moment, i think there is a lot of upward momentum in these prices which is very worrying because we are already grappling with an energy crisis in europe. if you add to that, the soaring food prices, it will be a very tough couple of months. francine: jay powell reassure the markets. kristine: that remains to be seen. the situation on the ground has changed drastically. even before the conflict escalated earlier in february, we were already seeing signs of worries in the markets over whether growth would be able to withstand these rate, these massive rate hikes that are into markets. we are seeing that less so now, but there is

francine: thank you, dani burger.ave plenty more on all the technology companies going forward. the big conversation today is on inflation, and ecb impacting the markets after the wild swings we saw since the beginning of the week. the ecb's power to help with the impact on energy is limited. the earning consensus has yet to reflect, and it is my chart of the day. we will have plenty more on the inflation situation, and u.s. cpi a little later. the invasion of ukraine has delayed that peak of inflation in the u.s., they expect 8% on your year -- year on year. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> we are not giving up ukrainian territory. >> if it is not stop in ukraine, it will have terrible implications for europe and the world. >> what is happening is a genocide of ukrainians. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance: early edition" with francine lacqua. francine: welcome to "bloomberg surveillance: early edition." here's what is coming up

francine: thank you so much. also bring in our senior reporter for international affairs. you have been writing extensively about the situation, about the possible outlines of a peace agreement. what could that look like? >> yes, there are some things we know and there is a great deal that we don't. there is some kind a 15 point plan which the ukrainians say the russians put together and they set their demands out, but it does include a key provision for ukraine's neutrality and it seems that there is significant progress around that, that that is an area where they can compromise. then it gets hard. the ukrainians want security guarantees from outside and that becomes a bit like joining nato depending on what the guarantees are. the russians want recognition by ukraine that crimea, which they annexed in 2014, is russian territory, and they want recognition that the separatist territories, that the russians, that those will be independent and not part of ukraine. francine: how much depends on what china decides?

francine: how difficult?ou're right maybe it is easier to look at long-term than the next three to four months. in some ways we're lucky because we're out of the summer months. by releasing 60 million barrel ossts of oil, 4% of the reserves, is that enough? >> not sure gas -- gas is more complicated. 40% of european gas consumption comes from russia. solutions looked at pushing for more north african gas through europe into spain. there has to be more nuclear power looked at. more solar. a lot more wind. a combination of factors. on a three-year to five-year basis, the view is pretty clear. we'll see a big fallout from the crisis. potentially we could see more u.s. liquid natural gas exports. the u.s. is exporting every day. we could see that doubling. we'll see capital flows going there. it is not going to be overnight. it is going to take a while. europe needs to be careful not to destroy its economy in the process. at the end of the day that is what finances schools, hospitals, defense, everything we're do

francine: tom: this is bloomberg. the details next, ♪ francine: welcome back to the open.42 minutes into the european trading day. stocks are falling, oil is rising. there is more concern when it comes to a ceasefire, things are not going to plan. and the two year and 10 year treasury curves briefly inverted. some are saying it is a sign of recession. that that is saying -- hackers have stolen $600 million. tom and i can't wait to talk about this. it is one of the biggest crypto heists to date. thieves attacked the ronin bridge network. the breach was march 23, but it was only discovered yesterday. our crypto expert eddie van der walt joins us. it's amazing, 600 million, but also they don't notice for a couple of days. >> if this happened to my wallet, i would notice almost immediately. it shows how big these businesses have become and shows that security is still not where it should be. you would think there would be people that ordered these numbers fairly regularly. but we are talking about several blockchain's transferring money from one to the other, so that. vulnerab

francine: is it a loop like we see in japan? >> i think it's more useful instead of putting a big package onto the table that we ask what are the macros doing in this. , the central bank still hike? what we expect them to do. tom: within of course the question is the question of energy prices. still with the mix of level -- still with the mix, falling i should say 9% approximately around $28,000. -- is there at least a level of nickel where they will start trading on the exchange? >> there is a lot of volatility in the price. as we heard from the lme ceo, they are doing their best to try and bring stabilization to the market. it would make a lot of sense for dip buyers starting to see some opportunities as we see the initial price jolt once we get that stability back in the markets. francine: thank you very much kristine aquino and sebastian. we will get the latest on ukraine and discuss the potential russian oil embargo. later we speak to the cofounder at -- capital. this is bloomberg. ♪ tom: welcome back to the gains of 2/10 o

francine: it is so much more elegant. when it looks at, if you look at futures, and this is an interesting dynamic, because we have seen in the last week where features in the u.s. were actually down as we started trading in europe. and then we saw that reversal. the euro stoxx 600 gaining .2%, again, this will have everything to do with the bond rout. the biggest in modern history, manus. we need to look at the inverted yield curve. if the equities catch up with the idea that it's not going to end well for growth, then we could see further pressure especially on stocks that have huge margins that could become smaller if growth is heard significantly. manus: a lot to debate as we go through the markets this monday morning. let's get the first word from our correspondent in washington, and murray still whole on the ground -- and murray still on the ground in poland. and this new lockdown, juliette saly is on the ground with the latest. francine: biden has yet to clarify his call for putin to be removed from power. it comes

francine: here is what's coming

francine: how long?is the killer question, i'm sorry, and it's on a friday, but how long does it take for the market to work out the secondary effects of what we are seeing in raw materials? kristine: i think it will be a crucial question for the second quarter. i think a lot of those questions will be answered in the second quarter, not on just the trajectory of commodity prices but also the response of central banks and how that feeds through to the rest of markets. that's really when we will get clarity on whether the fed is indeed serious about delivering that 50 basis point rate hike eminently. we will also probably get more developments when it comes to the russia-ukraine conflict and what that means for commodity prices. i think a lot of these uncertainties potentially clearing up in this coming quarter. tom: ok, kristine aquino, thank you very much indeed, of course walking through the key market teams. flowbank chief investment officer esty dwek as well on some of those insights. appreciate you

francine: let's take a look at futures. a lot of insiders are saying they expect stocks to take a pause in the rally. it is this dichotomy of if goldman sachs expects 250 basis point hikes, then why is this not reflected in's ox -- stocks? tom: we know that u.s. stocks are back to their prewar levels as well. the spanish ibex opening up .4%. the german deck scanning .5%. poland suggesting that president macron is in a comfortable lead in april. the ftse 100 gaining just under .2%. the exchequer is going to be girl today about his attempts to address the cost of living in the u.k. let's switch to how things are playing out in the future stateside, and just to build on the yields story. losses of .4% so far. we know that there will be talks between the russians and ukrainians. biden has been walking back comments. the french and the brits do not agree with that. the u.s. 10 year yield at 2.50, a key line in the sand. you see the 10 with an 11 basis point move. just in the trading session today alone. brent is currently at 116

francine: mr.you also need to reflect on the early 2000 where it was under tony blair that a lot of these wealthy individuals came to london. fmr. pm. brown: i think you've got to look at what actually happened. this system was introduced in 1994. most countries have a system like this. but all the rules for it were made far more flexible after 2010. in 2008, we tightened up the rules and made it more difficult for people to come into the country this way. after 2010, there was some attempt to make it a lot easier. i think you have got to address your russians to the coalition government after 2010. i don't think anybody, even a minister who was listing the conditions, would want to give any permission to plutocrats to come to the country and launder money in doing so. it's a question of the administration of these rules as well as the rules themselves. tom: there is a big conversation in poland about inflationary impacts of this war, and the attempt by europe to wean itself off of the energy depen

francine: thanks very much.ohn hardy, saxo bank head of fx strategy, on what is going on in the markets. i cannot believe that -- there must be some kind of bridge off in the days to come. tom: looking at the moves across the european equity space yesterday was remarkable to see the relative stability to european stocks at this stage on what is happening on this major global scale of the geopolitical conflict. the war on ukraine escalates and president putin sits back with countermeasures in response to western sanctions, we get into the sanctions fallout later this hour. this is bloomberg. ♪ tom: welcome back to the open. let's focus in on russian stocks on the markets of closed, the markets for the second straight day. we have a chart that shows the impacts on some of the biggest russian names listed in london. many of those facing sanctions including sberbank and a reminder of the new real id -- reality on the screen. and the impact that has been enormous. francine: the russian trading on that. coming up, mor

francine: thank you, mark cudmore. we also have the main questions about when vladimir putin cuts off supply and it is not so easy to divert the flow from the east. bloomberg has learned that the u.s. is planning to tap into its oil reserves as inflation and supply shortages loom on the prices paid -- prices. for more on all of this we are joined by bloomberg's andrew james. how much does this release impact prices in the short term but also the longer-term legacies? >> as mark mentioned, this is a big release. we have a 30 million barrels release in march. we have seen a big drop in oil today. we were down seven dollars a barrel at one point. this is undoubtedly going to have a big impact. it is not going to replace all of the missing russian oil out there. the other interesting thing about it is the timing. we made an official announcement on this out of the white house later today, but it is on the same day that they have the monthly meeting and the bets is that the u.s. has become increasingly frustrated with the a

francine: fluid. on ruble, the fact that the russian president pushed on with his plans to demand that they use it for -- the ruble for natural gas purchases, there is worry they won't repay some of the corporate bonds. stocks in asia struggling back from some of the early lows. oil turning lower. if you look at some of the european future contracts, they are pointing to a higher start. it could turn very quickly, manus. manus: ok, let's get to our reporters. they are standing by for us. maria tadeo standing by. what will biden's message be? aggi on the poland, ukraine border. juliette saly keeping us abreast of all the action in the asian market session. fran? francine: president biden has arrived in brussels where he will be participating in a marathon day of international diplomacy. he is looking to reassure allies and increase economic pressure on russia. maria, this trip is pretty big symbolically. what can the u.s. president get done in practice? >> good morning. it is a marathon day for the u.s

francine: tom: this is bloomberg.etails next, ♪ deficit, a future tax, is paid for in two ways. we either borrow it from capital markets that then reduces the amount that's available to make consumers loans and have to be paid back through future taxes, or we simply print that money which produces inflation. that's largely how this administration is financed, multimillion dollar spending scheme, results nearly 8% annual inflation costing an average family $3,500 in lost purchasing power but also means if families put $100,000 toward their retirement, they've just seen $7,900 taken from them. it turns out all that free money that you folks sent out is very expensive and americans are paying it back at the gas station and the grocery store every day. now this budget repeals the trump tax cuts. remember, we took in more revenues after the tax cuts so great was the economic expansion that they produced, and they weren't tax cuts for the rich, the wealthiest 1% saw their share of income taxes actually grow. the average hou

francine: we know the u.s. president joe biden is heading to warsaw to meet with his polish counterpart after back to back summits in brussels. let's start with bloomberg's aggie cantrell. what are we expecting the president to do in poland? how much assurance can he give? >> before he goes to where i am right now in poland, where he's going to be speaking to the president and there's going to be two focuses to his meeting, first he says the humanitarian angle, he's going to be talking about the humanitarian crisis with poland seeing the tangible effects having accepted 2 million refugees coming over the border from ukraine. there is also the security side. he is expected to meet with the 82nd airborne here and there are going to be talks about the effort to bolster nato, especially places like poland and the baltics and romania and the concern for these areas that are feeling this sense of insecurity around russia's invasion in ukraine to their own borders. manus: thank you. european leaders continue the diplo

francine: also when it comes to global bonds and stocks.lobal bond market suffering steep losses since peaking last year. we are back joined by stephen isaac. great to have you on the program. thanks for joining us. >> i think we need to stand back and look at the direction of travel over the the longer term of time. the covid crisis completely upends a generation where were used to globalization and strong dis-inflationary forces and also the politics of potentially -- those drivers are out in the open. it's all very well confirmed, western politicians say they will bring that in from elsewhere but you can just -- with supply chain management. the headline this morning referenced the fiscal measures thrown overboard. we will have big announcements on defense spending, so the fiscal side is stimulating the economy. so that's the broader picture. inflation is going to trend high. that's huge for investors. >> on that question of central banks, can the equity markets whether two 50 basis point hikes this year. >> we will have more volatility.

francine: he grew up on a farm in ireland and was the first person in his family to go to university. bp as a graduate engineer, and 28 years later,

. ♪ francine: thomas pesquet spend more than a year of his life in space.ronaut, he captured the hearts and minds of people on the european continent with updates on life from the international space station. thomas: i had in the back of my head a list of things that could go wrong. it is a series of miracles to get you to space. francine: thomas pesquet, a former air france pilot, who spent years in training now and the role space exploration can play.

last month francine passed away after her battle with cancer. congressman vargas and i joined so many from across san diego in sending our condolences to francine's family, friends, and loved ones. may her memory be a blessing. i yield back. the speaker pro tempore: for what purpose does the gentleman from alabama seek recognition? >> madam speaker, i request permission to address the house for one minute. the speaker pro tempore: without objection, the gentleman is recognized for one minute. >> thank you, madam speaker. i have been asked many times this week about my thoughts on the address to congress by president of ukraine, i was moved and inspired by his commitment to the definance of his -- defense of his stricken nation and people. his remarks reminded me of another time when a courageous and determined leader sought the aid of america in defefns his nation -- defense of his nation as it was being threatened by the armed might of hitler's nazi forces. on february 9, 1941, winston churchill addressed the british parliament in a speech broa

their own agenda and colleagues, we come from the assumption that the conference can reverse that francine arms control areas, non proliferation farms areas, and also to help to enhance the international security and stability. to achieve this goal, we also have our russian initiative to develop international convention to counter the biological and chemical terror reasons to strengthen the legal framework of countering terrorism. it's in the threats of all the states. if there is political, the will, the participants of the conference must overcome the differences and to find the common ground that will open up the avenue to resume the dial, the can negotiations. we still have a chance to do that. hopefully, the 6 chairs of the conference of 2022 will make their contribution. thank you for your attention and all the best. okay. we've just been listening in on the russian foreign minister said a lot of us the address, the un human rights counseling geneva doing so remotely as he is of course able to fly because of the flight restrictions currently in place. so that was the latest from mosc

. ♪ francine: thomas gautier pesquet has spent more than a year in space.ptured hearts and minds of the continent with his social media posts. >> i had in my mind a list of things that could go wrong because so many things could go wrong. it is a series of miracles to get you to space.

francine: good to see you --romaine: good to see you. risk sentiment this morning is positive.s is more of a rotation rally out of the turmoil going on in the ukraine. tesla shares up about 1.8% of of an 8% gain yesterday, the biggest one-day gain we have seen for tesla going back to the end of january. a lot of talk now about apple. those shares relatively unchanged in the premarket. they are up for 10 straight days, the longest active winning streak for an s&p 500 company, and there are only two other companies in the russell 2000 that have matched that when streak. that is gamestop and palo alto. if gamestop does for -- if it does in higher today, that is the biggest when streak since 2015. of course, the waiting that it now has, dominating the nasdaq 100. a couple of things to keep an eye on here. just crossing the wire a little while ago, elliott and brookfield management earlier this month made a bid for nielsen. that was apparently rejected. dow jones now reporting that that has been increased. fedex up about 215%, announcing that fred smith will step down, as anticipate

it telling foreign minister -- the italian foreign minister spoke with francine lacqua today , sayingis ready to face the economic impact those steps could have on its economies. >> italy should not worry about russia blackmailing our gas. together with any ceo, we are building a new partnership to prevent any further blackmailing from russia on gas. mark: italy is seeking to lower its dependence on russian gas which accounts for more than 40% of its total imports. hong kong may delay its plan to test its entire population of 7.4 million people for covid this month. pressure is growing on the government to instead focus its resources on a soaring covid death rate which is now the highest in the world. local media say the city is now prioritizing efforts to prevent more of its elderly population from dying and that mass testing may be postponed until april. global news 24 hours a day, on-air, and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i'm mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. ♪ jon: i'm jon erlichman. welcome to bloomberg markets.

tom: this is someone i talked to years ago with francine lacqua.is a thumbprint of business worldwide because they do roll ups. this is a baltic states roll up with russia. some of these companies are ancient. there is one i cannot pronounce out of lil wayne he and that goes back to 1784. you wonder how carlsberg peels off russia and yet maintains the complex relationships in the baltic states. jonathan: this is the issue. you have got the oil majors trying to pull back, bp. who do they sell? who is going to buy? everything is happening at the same time. i think we can call this a fire sale across a range of industries, a single country, of which there is a small pool of buyers. where does the money come from? how long does it take to fulfill the goals some of these companies have? tom: it takes longer than you think. i would go back to world war i as one of the tumultuous workouts. certainly deglobalization tone is adjusted. we adjust now on this monday with michael darda, micro strategist at mkm partners. i have got to go to the symbolism of the

earlier today, francine lacqua caught up with david herro, who warns not to overstate the importancef the russian economy on the rest of the world especially when it comes to european banks which sold off heavily this morning. >> you have seen an extreme price reaction. in fact, there was some research last week that showed this period since the invasion, you have an equivalent price movement as you had in the pandemic. this basket has been slaughtered. to some degree, i think it is well overdone. matt: joining us for his perspective is stuart kaiser, head of equity derivatives research at ubs. thanks for joining us. we heard from david, from a lot of market participants this morning, that the selloff that we saw at that time was a little bit overdone beyond the fundamentals. is this kind of volatility here to stay? stuart: thanks for having me on. we think the volatility is here to stay for the short-term, but beyond that it is hard to have any visibility. you could argue that the russian economy is not that large in a global sense, but the price of oil is a global commodity. that i

francine lacqua will be speaking to guests, including paolo gentiloni. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ tom: welcome back to the open. we are 13 minutes into the european trading day. gains across the benchmark. in terms of sectors, top of the list, energy. banks moving off some highs that we saw yesterday. banks, as a sector, the bottom of the list. modest gains across european markets. we had that commentary from a number of fed officials baking in that more hawkish stance. let's get to the geopolitics. kyiv says the evacuation of citizens from mariupol continues as the city comes under constant shelling. almost a quarter of the ukrainian population has now been displaced, many fleeing to the west of the country or to the european union. joining us is our reporter in poland. what is the situation? what is the latest? >> so, when it comes to mariupol , the city in the southeast of ukraine which has been heavily bombarded since march 2, there is a real concern about the scale of that humanitarian crisis in the city, especially at the moment, as russian troops have

which kick off in november that takes place at the same venue on friday. fif a president johnny in francine called for an end to conflict during his address to the congress holds up for discussion with the world cup every 2 years. but he surprised many by claiming the idea was not features. we started the feasibility. but if i did not propose anything, if i came to the conclusion that it is feasible that it would have some repercussions and impacts. but once this certified, the next phase stops and it's a phase of consultation, is the phase of discussion, is the phase of trying to find agreements and compromises. ah, well author, algeria failed to qualify for the world cup. the president of a football association is resigned. but they have also lodged an appeal with 3 for hoping to find a way in to cut the 2022. algeria were beaten by cameroon, over 2 legs, but they are all using the outcome of the 2nd match in l. g area that was distorted by the officiating camera and one the 2nd is to once, once in a way goes. egypt also launched an appeal after being knocked out by cynical african footba

so it's really, really close at the the now for president johnny and francine us as the upcoming world cup. and qatar is a unique opportunity to show a lights on workers' rights and gender quality in the region. he's been talking in the countries capital though, how form we need to, again learn to live with each other by respecting each other by respecting as well some differences which exist using the positive values that support can have. look at what the world cup as has done here in katha, in terms of workers' rights for example, or to stay in the region. in iran we are speaking about gender equality. women are allowed now to go in football stadiums in iran this was not allowed for 40 years. it's maybe a small drop, but it's something important. when we'll have qualifying canada can in the 36 year, wait to raise the funds when they play to make her a little late so that they missed the chance to save us. but when they lost the costa rica on thursday, but they can do it in this much in toronto, canada, on top of the north and central american qualifying group, top 3 teams will secur