francine lacqua joins us this morning. it really is quiet. bout it and we talk about it in a moment that low volume, low volatility. how sleepy is the city? francine: first of all, in europe, a lot of people are on holiday. what a shock. but you said we are very live. i don't know whether the ecb meeting will be very live but it will be the hawkish tone or not of mario draghi that will be encouraging to europe. tom: getting ready for a three-week vacation without our first word news. here is taylor riggs. >> it turns up president trump had a second meeting with russian president vladimir putin at last weeks to tony summit. -- g20 summit. they briefly conversed during a dinner for global leaders. the meeting lasted an hour and the only other person present was putin's translator. revealcconnell plans to obamacare but that appears to be dead. three republican senators have come out against the repeal without a replacement. mcconnell can't afford to lose more than two republican votes. thece's plan to return to international bond market this week

francine lacqua in london, tom keene in new york.publicans looking to deliver on repealing obamacare. this senate rejected a repeal-only health care plan. critics say the measure would have left millions without health insurance. a report president trump has discussed using a recess appointment to replace jeff sessions. according to "the washington post" president trump has been warned not to put sessions out because of the ramifications. china, another sign the economy is picking up. the government said industrial profits rose more than 19% many year ago. there's as companies deal with a .eavy debt load prime minister theresa may's government will study the impact of british workers on the economy. may's strategy director has resigned. her other top strategist quit after the conservatives lost their majority in parliament. global news, 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. i am taylor riggs. calling: analysts are it the busiest earnings day for 20 years. let

francine lacqua in london.lor riggs -- bloomberg "first word news" from taylor riggs. kim jong-un launched a second intercontinental ballistic missile in the matter of weeks. rex tillerson says the u.s. wants a peaceful resolution to the tension. the top american general discuss a possible military response with his south korean counterpart. says hisresident military has the confidence and capability to bolster the country's rise into a world power. he oversaw a parade that showed off chinese forces and has pushed for a modernization program, aimed at making the military a leaner force. retired marine corps general john kelly takes over as white house chief of staff, today. donald trump cap kelly on friday to replace -- tapped kelly on friday to replace former chief of staff reince priebus. i'm taylor riggs, this is bloomberg. david: let's get more on that shakeup at the white house. joining us from the white house -- joining us from rhode island is the chief of political science at -- kevin cirilli telling is

i am francine lacqua here in london.the fourth holiday. let's focus on oil. a brent crude is low today after the longest rally since 2012. data compiled shows opec's june output was the highest this year in libya and nigeria are ramping up production. joining us is will kennedy, bloomberg's managing editor for energy and commodities in bloomberg. and still with us is alberto gallo. great to have you on the program. what does it mean for compliance? compliance opec production cuts are in place and they complied and everyone was surprised and you have extra barrels from people who were not under the accord. yeare deal struck last specifically excluded nigeria and libya because it was recovering from the war and production was much lower than it would be a nigeria because it was afflicted by violence in the delta. what we have seen since as both of those countries made considerable progress bringing production back. libya is now above one million barrels a day, which has added several hundred barrels to production and negat

francine lacqua is in an amazing washington. n and washington is having an impact on the euro. this rally we are seeing in the euro which could continue. it's mainly about what mario draghi said yesterday. i would say it's also about confusion over washington. bring yound to up-to-date on washington, our first word news, here is taylor riggs. taylor: there are multiple reports that some of president trump's lawyers are trying to undercut robert mueller who is investigating ties between the trump campaign and russia. the lawyers are building the conflictsmueller has of interest and the new york times is looking for reasons to get mueller fired or have someone in his team reprised -- recused. russia and iran both threaten u.s. interest while they pursue terms in syria. mike pompeo said the russia were a -- want a warm water naval port there. ended two years of speculation and agree to another bailout for greece. worthpproved a new loan as much as $1.8 billion. that is contingent on eurozone countries providing greece with debt reli

i am francine lacqua in london. we are looking at data and some of the earnings and your asset classes. first thing's first, we are getting the july german business confidence. that data better than expected at 116. we were expecting a figure of 114.9. let us check on the currencies. when it comes to the kind of things, it does have an impact longer-term. reminder, we are two months away from the german election. there will be more focus on a lot of the german data points. that is go straight onto your markets. what i am watching out for is the dollar fluctuating somewhat. stocks seem to be mixed as well before the u.s. federal reserve policy decision. oil expending some of the gains below $47 at 46 .63$. at 46.6 three dollars. here is nejra cehic. , who: john mccain underwent surgery for brain cancer, will return to washington today at the senate embattledo take up health care legislation. the development could boost republican efforts to get enough votes to pass the measure. he had noner said improper contacts wit

in london is francine lacqua. market. is maybe why we are explaining some of the stocks rising in europe. what i'm looking at is that the chancellor is striking a different tone on exit and then jobs data is on friday. tom: and the g-20 meeting in europe which will be more than important. with is a likely to meet chancellor merkel. -- thest new cruise first world news now taylor riggs. --lor: nuclear programs japan. of china and a agreed that china must get tougher with north korea. in a call, the president repeated his desire for a more balanced treating relationship. in illinois, the statehouse is towardsmajor step ending a two-year budget impasse. a 30 2% increase in income taxes. the state senate has to vote on the measure which the governor has promised to veto. the firstcould become ever to have their credit rating cut to junk. the u.k. is dropping the bravado over brings it. theresa may makes a consolatory measure today. to an audience that has been overlooked. forip hammond has emerged the business friendly brexit.

guy johnson in with francine lacqua -- in for francine lacqua. mr.and we will talk about that later. bruce kasman. pimcocantrill at straddles the line between the chaos and cacophony of her washington and policy. let's talk about that. after what we have seen which ,as unimaginable, four days ago what we have seen in the last 24 hours, the mystery in the next 24 hours, who cares about health care. libby cantrill: this makes the republicans pretty ambitious legislative agenda that much more difficult and ambitious. they are trying to push forward on health care and unpopular bill. they need every help that can get including the strength of the bully pulpit of the president and they do not have it right now. i think health care will be difficult to get over the threshold. tom: bruce kasman just to describe a battered global economy without the locomotive of the u.s. gdp, whata sub 3% does it do to the policymakers who need to get reelected? bruce kasman -- libby cantrill: you would like to think it would put more urgency to help accelerate the sense of

i'm francine lacqua.are just getting, i think, some live pictures of president trump arriving at the in hamburg. we are expecting the president to arrive shortly. world leaders meet in hamburg. one of the most highly anticipated summits. trade andivisions on climate change and how to handle north korea's provocation. we understand and we know that angela merkel will chair the summit of g-20 because she is the person in charge. yesterday, we saw some violent clashes between police and anti-globalization protesters. now, i think you see the motorcade of the president. i believe that is what we are seeing at the moment. what we also understand is that this event, the g-20, we're looking at live pictures. if you are on radio, we're seeing a lot of black cars that look like police escorts. this event will be the first official meeting between u.s. president donald trump and the russian president vladimir putin. we understand that will take p.m. u.k.round 3:30 ti acts like, i think it is local time. we will kee

up next, francine lacqua and surveillance. anna edwards and i will be on radio. g. ♪ francine: markets prepared to scrutinize draghi's delivery when the president faces the media later. will the drop any hints about stimulus? unilvever cuts costs and raises prices. and france's finance minister tells britain, we want our money back. the eu divorce bill and the 100 billion euro figure that will not go away. this is "bloomberg surveillance" and i'm francine lacqua in london. we have a great show for you. but first, to

up next is "bloomberg surveillance" with francine lacqua and tom keene. rg radio with carolyn hester for "daybreak europe." ♪ francine: concern for health of that with earnings season in full swing. make or break time for the u.s. stock market? is deutsche bank about to move 300 billion euros of assets from london to frank for? -- to frankfurt? lending surges. this is "bloomberg surveillance ." i am francine lacqua in london. we are looking at data and some of the earnings and

francine lacqua at the london headquarters. how big a deal is it? ankfurt fx? francine: partly saying we have a great base and it will be easier for us and a way of cutting expenses. andn't know is significant john cryan saying they are preparing for a hard brexit. i do not know if it is the number one expectation. we will see other markets reacts in the next couple of hours. tom: the ecb meeting today and mr. draghi's important comments at the press conference. the senator from arizona. senator john mccain has been diagnosed with brain cancer. doctors discovered it after removing a blood clot from above his eyes. the arizona republican is 83-year-old and he was -- 80 years old and he was the 2008 presidential candidate and spent more than five years in a prison camp after being shot down in vietnam. a startling revelation for president trump. he said he would not have pointed jeff sessions if he would have recused himself from the russian investigation of. -- russian investigation. the kremlin said that the donald trump did not tell vladimir putin t

in london, looking towards berlin is francine lacqua. is the political tension that you are alluding to. it is also clear that if there is one person who may be could get china on board, it could be angela merkel. i was struck that the chancellor an opinion -- in piece. whether that was domestic politics or whether it means something different. tom: absolutely extraordinary. he would have thought it would be quiet. but forget about that. let's get you up to speed with the first word news with taylor riggs. taylor: a pointed response to north korea's announcement it has used an intercontinental ballistic missile for the first time. china conducted -- the u.s. and south korea test today. missile the united nations security council will meet on this matter today. moving to the u.k., theresa may's disastrous performance in last month's election may have been a gift to business leaders. according to the is a dude of directors, it gave them greater leverage to negotiate for a softer brexit. they are now asking for ideas and solutions to concer

ins is francine lacqua london. i like the vodka thing. the toast of another time and place. s living in moscow and it brings you back to my childhood. but i think of the g-20, the definitelyicant will be the meeting on the sidelines between the chinese president and president trump. we understand that the chinese president may put the onus on the trump administration deal with north korea. so probably that is the most significant thing i see this week. tom: i strongly agree with you that g-20 is front and center, even with festivities in warsaw. we know that north korea is not part of the g-20. we are starting in warsaw, and the talks from trump on north korea. trump says he is considering severe auctions in the wake of north korea's launch on a new, long-range missile. trump: we take a look at what happens over the coming weeks and months with respects to north korea. it is a shame that they are behaving this way but they are behaving in a very dangerous manner and something will have to be done about it. taylor: the president says he doesn't drop redlines like president oba

francine lacqua spoke to chief executive tidjane thiam. francine, good morning. halfway through the overall, is the ceo pleased with what has been achieved? francine: he seemed pretty pleased. he said they've been cutting costs, increasing wealth management. he's confident about capital ratios and he's confident about the swiss bank. however, these trends need to continue. they are juggling a couple things to make sure they do reach that huge overall in about 18 months from now. he was pleased but also cautious. he said it is still too soon to cry victory. we need to keep at it. this is what he said about his longer-term strategy. >> long-term, i'm always quite optimistic. the short to medium term is quite difficult to predict because there's so much uncertainty, geopolitical events, central banks, that are extremely hard to forecast. the rate of increasing wealth, wealth creation in emerging markets, is there to stay, and is driving the numbers you see. it from: if you look at a holistic point of view, you still have global markets that did pretty well, but ther

i am francine lacqua in london. tom keene in new york. banks, opec, and politics in the u.s. and poland. tom: politics is front and center. today, asianss strength as well. hans redeker this hour it is a good time to brush up on what foreign-exchange is telling us. francine: i am looking at the impact dollar weakness has. let's get to first word news. taylor: the president of poland says he will veto part of a judicial overhaul that is threatening the independence of the court system. the legislation has led to eight straight days of antigovernment protests. the eu has threatened sanctions over the issue. in st. petersburg, opec and its partners meet today to discuss oil pumping cutbacks. one item that will not be on the agenda, production limits for nigeria and limit. imf sees the u.s. fading as an engine for the global economy. the world economy will expand 3.5% this year. according to the imf, the world will rely less than expected on the u.s. and u.k. and more on china, japan, the eurozone, and canada. the new press secretary sarah hu

- is what trying to avoid with a potential move of the trading business back into frank for --francine lacquaaving to put the other plans to satisfy central banks and let regulators -- and regulars. is focused on regulars back home and in terms of what the actual effect on operations, it is too early to tell and will depend on how much of the risk management and front office staff deutsche bank will choose to move alongside that business which remains a question. mark: is this a win for frankfurt? i am being the devils advocate. was emerging as this destination for banks post-brexit and they said it is just a two bank town but frankfurt has emerged as a seek otherther banks locations post-brexit? >> absolutely but in terms of actually numbers, how much are we talking about? it is hundreds and not thousands, in part because of a housing shortage and a shortage of the infrastructure the type of business you're talking about requires. mark: is there a cultural shortage? on ane going to frankfurt friday night. is --the article been that read the article. that is not me. we will continue to follow

we had francine lacqua speak to him earlier. margins and rates are all a result of competition. up and down over time. in the long term, we are firmly margins andcommitted to the u.d we are growing handsomely. we will take whatever the rates in the margins are overtime. mind, bearing that in committed to the u.k. when we hear from handles punk and -- handlesbanken, what should we read into all of this? is uniquendlesbanken and decentralized swedish bank that does branch banking in the u.k. and the u.k. is one of its a guest foreign markets. if you have something like that, you are not going to drop it easily. and likeandlesbanken other banks, they might see a in the -- to staying u.k. citigroup needs international trading and -- and that passport into the e.u. and the safest pattern is having a base ready just in case to see what happens and i think it has made that choice in frankfurt. early days yet, but i think you see two kinds of situations developing. nejra: we are talking about a trading hub, not a move of headquarters. nonetheless, frankfurt does seem to be winning in te

ceo of credit suisse speaking to francine lacqua. >> senate republican leader mitch mcconnell has raisedhe white flag on obamacare repeal for now. he said that it is time to move on after a stripped-down repeal bill fell in the senate. john mccain joined to republican colleagues and all 48 democrats to defeat the measure and the president said lawmakers can let obamacare implode and make a deal. russia striking back at the u.s. for the new sanctions approved by congress, the u.s. has been ordered to reduce the number of diplomatic and other personnel in the country. a news agency says hundreds of u.s. personnel would have to leave. an epic takedown, the white house communications chief anthony scaramucci launched a foulmouthed attack on two of his rivals to new york magazine company called the chief of staff a paranoid schizophrenic and said that white house strategist steve bannon seeks media attention at the president's expense. the fda has unveiled a comprehensive plan for regulating tobacco, they want to cut nicotine in cigarettes to nonaddictive levels with the goal to cut down on f

carlet: that was mark carney discussing climate change with francine lacqua.inancial disclosures with michael bloomberg. the chinese premier asserted the need to combat climate change in his speech at the world climate for him. he talked about china's changing role in the global economy, a topic stephen engle discuss with several guests. stephen: what did you take away from the premier's speech, claiming china can withstand all of these challenges, they will meet their targets, there will not be any hard landing? eswar: china was sending a very soothing message but also a very clear point the lead up to the party congress in november, to make inroads with financial stability. next year is the year to be concerned about because we might see some unpredictable consequences, and it could come to a head, but this year is ecure. what is even more interesting about the speech is the international aspect because if the beginning and throughout, there was a motion of taking on the globalization mantle. there was the free flows of capital. all of these have permeated h

that was bank of england governor mark carney discussing climate change with francine lacqua.ask force on climate related financial disclosures, which is chaired by michael bloomberg, founder a majority owner of our parent company of break lp. the need to combat climate change in the form in delhi and. he talked about china's changing role in the global economy, a topic discussed by several high-profile guests. >> what did you take away from the speech? it was almost a carbon copy of previous speeches, saying china can withstand all these challenges. they are going to meet their targets and there's not going to be a hard landing. the domestic side, he was sending a very spoofing message, but he is making a very clear point that the government is going to do whatever it takes in order to maintain reasonable growth. next year is the year to be concerned about. we could see consequences. what i found more interesting by there is the that notion of china of free and fair trade. all these have permeated the speech. whether indeed or not we will see, but china wants to take on this

head of oil industry and markets neil atkinson discusses the outlook for oil with bloomberg's francine lacquaek, opec will meet with russia. are they going to achieve more production cuts? >> we don't know if that will happen or not. we have to wait and see. what we are sure of at the moment is that although the opec cut agreements and not opec cut agreements has for the six-month a whole as it has been operating as has been reasonably successful. but for the month of june, the latest data for which we got reliable numbers, it looks as if the compliance rates have slipped a little. we have to wait and see what they decide. opec is responsible for its own decisions and we are observing it just like everyone else. >> it is extremely difficult to predict the price of oil. are we still range bound? >> at the iea, we don't formerly -- formally publicly forecast oil prices, but we are able to say that based on our current outlook for supply and demand in the rest of 2017, we do expect stocks to start falling during the second half of the year. on that basis of falling stocks, you could expect the p

this is "bloomberg surveillance" and i'm francine lacqua in london. we are getting breaking

i'm francine lacqua in london. on today's show, i am joined by the executive chairman

i'm francine lacqua

francine lacqua rejoined by tom keene today. i will be joining bloomberg radio.y to discuss. this is bloomberg. ♪ a ♪ escalation.new north korea's intercontinental missile launch and calls for global action to stop a global threat. this is ahead of the g-20 in hamburg. he meets chancellor merkel in an hours time. the sent anniversary of britain's last rate hike. back then, it was 5.75%. u.k. households should brace for tighter policy. qatar's prices with the credit outlook with pressure in

in london, she returns, francine lacqua. is there a good economy going on? francine: i came back for the inflation report. the most important piece of data. inflation is out of control. wage growth goes nowhere. inflation was weaker than expected. it is a little bit of respite. tom: we have a lot coming up. let's get to our bloomberg first word news. mitch mcconnell has raised the white flag on replacing obamacare. he will seek a simple repeal of the affordable care act, delayed for two years while congress works on a replacement. that would be a big step back for republicans. the letter ofg agreement to curb their nuclear program, but not the spirit. they have to certify every 90 days that iran is in compliance. moving to the u.k., lawmakers warn a brexit agreement needs to include a deal on data protection. the committee says without it, british police may be prevented from receiving intelligence from eu counterparts. a senior uae official says pressure on qatar seems to be working. and commercial ties were cut with qatar o

francine lacqua is on assignment in italy. guy johnson is in with us.to? guy: i hear the same thing is happening stateside? tom: you are dead on. kevin will join us in a moment. , you looking for cooperation. there happens to be distraction along the way. to get you caught up with the first word news, it is taylor riggs. a russian woman offered to provide potentially damaging information on hillary clinton. according to a statement on donald trump jr., the meeting a uselace in 2016 after -- after his father had secured the republican nomination. skeptical comments from congressional quarters. the notion of a cybersecurity unit emerged from president donald trump talks with president putin. lindsey graham from south carolina said "it is not the dumbest idea i've ever heard but it is pretty close." and the next few weeks will be to show -- will be crucial as to whether trump can deliver on tax cuts. republicans on basic parameters of a tax bill and deadlines to keep the government running emerges on u.s. debt. and theresa may will call on opposition lawma

. ♪ nejra: you are watching "bloomberg surveillance" and i'm nejra cehic in london, in for francine lacquast policy's decision on thursday and a bloomberg survey shows most economists think the central bank will announce plans to start unwinding the stimulus program. they see draghi waiting until september before revealing any changes with the plan starting in january, taking nine months. still with us is francesco garzarelli from goldman sachs. francesco, is the ecb going to set the tone for tapering on thursday? >> well, i think they will follow the plan in place already, which is to use the summer to talk about the medium-term objectives, what they are up to. then, have a meeting that probably in september, where they say they are about to change something and they are going to study it. then, a little bit later, maybe october, that is when they announce stuff. by that time, everything is priced and the market did not react. so, what are they going to do from thursday? i think make the transition from urgency to patience. int's the new word, patience maintaining the monetary policy stim

. ♪ guy: guy johnson in london, in for francine lacqua.sachs says oil could slot below $40 a barrel if efforts to rebound in the market do not prove successful. u.s. rate count declines are further evidence. there is shock and aw of opec the required. remember, this is the goldman sachs that is reviewing its commodity business. stephen macklow-smith, still with us. do you expect shock and awe from opec? >> there is a room is amount going on in the oil market. you have had increases in productivity with shale. there is a second factor which people are not talking about. that is how prices are inversely related with the u.s. dollar. so far this year, that has not proven to be the case. the third factor is demand. demand, as i said earlier, the bemand appears to e fairly robust around the world. if the dollar continues to weaken, most importantly. tom: the note i saw from jeff curry and his team was very subtle. this goes to stephen's idea of demand. moves insk of higher the charter. this could push prices below $40 billion. ongoing search fo