frank luntz. >> and i acknowledged on tweets since then. i don't see any pollsters showing up.here are you? >> you are. how did so many people, including you, get it so wrong? as i said in the beginning there, we tend to overindex, we've been doing it since 2016, over indexing the maga part of the electorate. >> there's a fear they did not include enough republicans in their samples. because we knew from 2016, 2018, and 2020, that trump voters tended not to respond to pollsters because they thought the results would be used against them. there's an effort to, as you say, over index, that's number one. number two people came to the polls and decided enough is enough. about 8% comes in undecided and has to decide at that moment. they want to vote one way and end up voting the other. >> what do you mean by that? >> reporter: they come in and think i'm going to vote republican. and then they go and have to decide do they pull the ballots or do they want to make a statement by voting democrat? 8% of the population comes in and may change their minds. third is that the independents,

joining me now on set, frank luntz.oing the gains from 1994. how did you get it wrong? >> everybody got it wrong. it's a line that i used from simon and garfunkel, a man hear what is he wants to hear and disregards the rest. all the information -- because i've been polling campaigns for saw years -- 15 years. i'm getting told all these numbers, and everything showed that republicans were moving towards a wave, particularly in the last 10 days. we've looked at it since the election, and three things come to mind. number one is donald trump was a negative. i hate doing this on your air, because right now people are getting ready to tweet that i'm wrong. howard: say what you think. >> trump was a negative. biden was neutral, trump was a negative because -- and the second point, the reason why so many people said that the numbers would be so, would help the republicans, the economy was so bad. inflation was so bad. howard: yeah. >> the president was so unpopular. our foreign policy's a mess, and yet democrats do as well tha

joining us now is pollster and strategist frank luntz. we appreciate you sharing your afternoon with us. a lot of republicans are on pins and neelsd awaiting this potential special announcement from donald trump next tuesday. some advisers are urging him to postpone at least until after that early december senate runoff in georgia. how do you think trump might impact that race? >> it could be significant. it was significant two years ago when donald trump went down there and said that -- that the georgia election was stolen and, therefore, your vote doesn't matter and thoughts of republicans stayed home as a result and they lost two seats that they otherwise would have won and the polling that we did in 2020, the generic ballot, was in favor of the republicans, but the actual vote was not and that's because republican voters stayed home. they don't want trump to be blamed for what happened then and they don't frankly want trump to be blamed for what happened on tuesday night when a whole lot of senate candidates didn't win because the fee

frank luntz is here. is gavin newsom right?e careful about projections because you have the tape and you'll play it at 2:00 a.m. >> we would never do that to you. >> of course you would do that to me. but every week i raise the republican projections for the house and for the first time i now think that it is 51/49 that it will be 51/49 in the senate for the republicans. that as the economy takes center stage and particularly affordability. not inflation, affordability. that helps the republicans and as abortion and the focus on donald trump recedes, republicans do better and better. >> where is the majority coming from? : it comes from two out of three states between pennsylvania, georgia and the state we never talk about, nevada. republicans have to win two out of those three, i believe they will. the important story is what happens on the day after and the day after that. i'm afraid of the vote counting. and i wanted to be here with you all to alert your viewers that in pennsylvania, which i believe is ground zero, philadelp

frank luntz, pollster extraordinaire. here comes t "the five." >> hello, everyone.o, along with judge jeanine pirro, harold ford jr., jesse watters and brian kilmeade. it's 5:00 in new york city, and this is "the five," live from fox square. it is decision day in america after countless hours of campaigning and candidates fighting to win over voters, it is now time for you to decide. the first polls closing in less than an hour from now, and what happens tonight could send shockwaves across the country. washington

let's bring in political strategist and pollster frank luntz.d a focus group for onetime trump voters to get their thoughts on the former president and the man who could be his biggest obstacle in reclaiming the republican party's nomination in 2024, of course florida governor ron desantis. frank, tell us about the focus group. what are you looking for? what did you hear? >> first we wanted to gather trump voters, and many of these people voted for trump twice. everyone voted for him at least in 2016 or 2020. and we wanted to know where they stood now that he's announced, now that it looks like the governor of florida, ron desantis, will be his opponent, we wanted to know how they felt about the man who they used to idolize and still do but not the same way. it's changed. >> when you ask a group of the republican voters to briefly describe donald trump and ron desantis, let's take a look to see what they had to say. >> first, one word or phrase that you use to describe donald trump right now. >> stay off twitter. >> jamie from iowa. >> i was goi

we are joined by frank luntz good morning to you.king to you throughout this campaign and here we are on election day. what are you expecting we are going to know this evening what do you think we are going to know tomorrow morning >> i think we are going to know what issues matter, and i think we are going to know the turnout, and frankly, there are a number of states where we are not going to get the results tonight or even tomorrow morning, and i think we are not going to know who controls the senate for at least 48 hours the house will be clear about the time you come on tomorrow morning, and it's a very divided, ugly, angry, anxelectoe going to the polls this morning. >> and what are the issues that matter to them >> it's easy if it doesn't matter to you you are not an average, everyday, ordinary american. gasoline, groceries. the things you pay for every day. electricity. buying a new car, buying a new house. the fact is it's not inflation, it's affordability that matters to people, the cost of every day life, and that has trum

frank luntz, pollster extraordinaire. here comes t "the five." >> hello, everyone. i'm dana perino, along with judge jeanine pirro, harold ford jr., jesse watters and brian kilmeade. it's 5:00 in new york city, and this is "the five," live from fox square. it is decision day in america after countless hours of campaigning and candidates fighting to win over voters, it is now time for you to decide. the first polls closing in less than an hour from now, and what happens tonight could send shockwaves across the country. washington and the rest of the states are not going to be the same after tonight. democrats are bracing for the worst case scenario. a red tsunami, wiping out their delicate grip on the house and the senate. republicans very confident as america gets ready to start counting. >> we're going to have a red wave across this country. y'all are going to make it happen. >> this red wave, the headwaters in the commonwealth of virginia, sweep across the commonwealth again. >> i want you to watch nancy pelosi hand me that gavel. >> pennsylvania sending a clear m

that is inflation which gets to this point from the republican pollster frank luntz.re's a lot for a president to brag about exception inflation. >> every week i raise the republican projections for the house and for the first time i now think that it is 51/49 that it will be 51/49 in the senate for the republicans. that as the economy takes center stage and particularly affordability, not inflation, affordability. >> it's a smart way to translate it. it's the impact of inflation that families are having trouble affording the basics. >> yeah, that's right. i mean, the president has been trying to today really zone in on those things that you said are actually good for the economy, which is the manufacturing jobs, his white house has been out in full force talking about the fact that means renewable energy jobs which are potentially higher paying manufacturing jobs and the president was pretty defiant. he said that he wasn't going to accept that higher job numbers, higher -- lower unemployment, more jobs was something bad for the american people. i got back from michig

. >>> joining us now, pollster, frank luntz and go founder and ceo of all in it together, lauren leadersthe question is, really, are young voters going to get out today? >> women? >> are women going to make a difference? what are you looking at? >> i think the early voting tallies are exciting and in 2020 people got the message about turnout and we are seeing it. we are going to see record numbers. there was concern early on that maybe they would not be as high as some of the record turnout elections, and i think they will be and this is an election people are paying attention to. >> frank, what are you looking at today? >> districts with hispanics. i am expecting the republicans to get 40 to 45% this time, and that could impact a couple senate races and a half a dozen house races. >> lauren, there has been a remarkable shift. hispanics are moving more toward the republican party, and white suburban women are moving toward the democratic party. we are seeing this move, this migration politically of two groups. >> all right. but it's pry primarily it's latino men. and i do think, look, i

let's bring in frank luntz frank, i missed you yesterday.oing to ask what pollsters do call too many cell phones? some were better than others we're back to wondering how we can think one thing and something so surprising can happen when we had so many people calling and asking what they will do and the standard deviation is so big. what do you know about the house? i saw 230 to 240 most people in the mid 220s? >> i'm actually low to mid 220s. i think when all the seats are counted, it will end up within two seats of what you show right now. we have it at 223 and 224 republican when all of the votes are counted. there were significant failures and successes on tuesday night the successes in florida and ohio the fact those two states are no longer purple states they are absolutely republican states the republican states did well among hispanic and latino. gains from 2018 were significant among men. however, the republicans did badly among independents independents cared more about abortion than the rest of the population they did badly among

. >> io i once saw frank luntz, who's a famous republican pollster, tell republican members of congress that they wanted to win hispanic votes. they had to move left. >> you're saying you've won those votes by moving right? >> absolutely. and including on immigration. my first year, we banned sanctuary cities and news mediay thought that that would be notwl approved down here. >> and yet hispanic voters in florida had the highest approval ratin v g for our policy to ban sanctuary cities. b >>an w se did the transport to martha's vineyard and people thought that this is going to be so bad. and yet hispanic voters backed me on doing that becauseha they understand the border is out of control. so i think it' s on all of theseclearl issues. but clearly, the republican establishment viewy that youment viewy need open borders and amnestyo p to appeal to hispanic voters in the united states is dead wrong. it was wrongwa then and it's clearly been proven to be wrong now. >> they've been saying it for 30 years. n sayiit's just an amazing expet in democracy. >> actually , governor ron desantit an

and that's one of the reasons republicans did quite well in florida and quite well in texas. >> frank luntzppreciate it. frank saying something on the air that i hear every democratic strategist tell me and something that rev and i talk about all the time. but, you know, willie, it is fascinating that, yes, the hispanic vote broke more republican. and you would think, okay, well, wait, republicans got 45% of the hispanic vote, they're going to have a big night. again, we talked about this before, there was a migration, hispanic voters going republican out of default. as david shore said a couple o years ago, democratic party got too progressive for a lot of hispanics. i think we're going to see a corrective here. we have a lot of suburban women, a lot, in '16, '18, '20. moving toward the democratic party that voted republican their entire life. think of what donald trump was saying pre-dobbs. we're going to lose the suburbs. he was against that. it made a massive difference. >> he was right about that, and the narrative, claire, that abortion had society as an issue over the summer, it was

so to talk about that, let's bring in pollster and communications strategist frank luntz. frank, thank you so much for joining us in the early hours of election, morning which we have now turned into. let's talk about what is happening in the senate, which i think it is not met the expectations that republicans had going into election night. it is surprised even some democrats i've been speaking with throughout the evening. what are you watching as we are trying to determine who is going to have control of the senate when all this over? >> the question is whether or not the candidates on both sides of the aisle were the best candidates that could've been nominated, or chosen. i think you're going to see a within the next 24 hours a real examination, what happened in arizona, what happened in new hampshire. what happened in a number of these states where republicans had tremendous opportunity and they did not follow through with it. pennsylvania is another one places where republicans were boys to do better than they did, and i agree with. you the level of surprise, the leve

we will get the view of frank luntz, star pollster, who has been talking to voting panels across americare. tonight however it is the pollsters who will be on tenterhooks, hoping, praying they got the numbers right. according to most of them, it's the republicans that finished the campaign the stronger, with a good chance of taking back the house. though only slightly favoured to take the senate. this is data from the polling site 5.30 eight. as you can see the predictions for the senate shifted around these last three months. through the summer, after the supreme court's decision to rollback abortion rights, the national environment improved for democrats. but republicans regaining much of that ground in october, in line with the usual trends we see in midterm elections. a lot of people focused on inflation and that's the big issue, the economy. and that's the big issue, the economy-— and that's the big issue, the econom . , ., , , and that's the big issue, the econom . , ., ,, ., economy. the number one issue and republicans — economy. the number one issue and republicans were _ econom