joining us, frank newport. how do you explain the fact your poll is so out of line with seven others national polls which show obama with a small lead or romney with a lead of just one point? >> well, there are many different explanation. we spend most of our time looking at our own method doling, how we do it. it's a seven day rolling average of the one you quoted. a large sample size. 3500 registered voters, 2700 likely voters in the sample. we don't spend time looking at the methodology of other polls. if we had been here a week ago we would have said the race was dead even ourselves but night by night with our large samples we've even romney move out to the 51-45 seven day average. that's what we're showing among likely voters nationally. registered voters is closer to even. >> you had a poll this week of 12 battleground states showing romney leading by four points in the 12 battleground states. 50-46. the gender gap among women was gone, obama leading by 49% to 48. most polls show obama leadingly more in t

i'm joined now by gallup poll editor in chief frank newport. frank, good to see you. morning. >> good morning! >> okay, so, let me know what you think. how's the race shaping up? how much have we seen? how much have you been able to poll up to this point? >> boy, we're studying the numbers. in fact, we're just looking at the numbers from last night, which we're adding to our rolling average which we will report out at 1:00 today at gallup.com. our view of the race is that romney definitely got a significant boost on thursday and friday of last week. and by the way, that's probably what was picked up for the most part in that pew poll that was discussed. >> okay. >> but when we monitor our data from saturday and sunday, and now just looking at the numbers from last night, obama is picking back up again. so, we think that that continuation of a huge move by romney is not in the data. so, overall, we would say it's looking like the race is, among registered voters, still tilting slightly in obama's direction. among likely voters, which we'll begin reporting out today, we

editor-in-chief frank newport next. i'm a conservative investor. i invest in what i know.ned 65 last weeeek. i'm getting married. planning a life. ere are risks, sure. but, there's no reward without it. i want to be prepared for the long haul. i sea world bursting with opportunities. india, china, brazil, ishares, small-caps, large-caps, ishares. industrials. low cost. every dollar counts. ishares. income dividends. bonds. i like bonds. ishares. commodities. diversification. choices. my own ideas. ishares. i want to use the same stuff the big guys use. ishares. 8 out of 10 large, professional investors choose ishares for their etfs. introducing the ishares core, etfs for the heart of your portfolio. tax efficient and low cost building blocks to help you keep more of what you earn. call your advisor. visit ishares.com. ishares. ishares. yeah, ishares. call 1-800-ishares for a prospectus which includes investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses. read and consider it carefully beforenvesting. lou: new polls show a tightening race heading into the final two weeks of th

joining us now from new york is frank newport, gallup's editor-in-chief.o you explain the fact that your poll is so out of line with 7 other national polls, which show obama with a small lead, or romney with a lead of just one point? >> well, there are many different explanations for that. we spend most of our time, chris, looking at our own poll and methodology, how we're doing it. a 7 day rolling average and the one you quoted is through last friday, a large sample size, 3700 registered voters and 2700 likely voters in the sample and we don't spend a lot of time looking at how other polls might have been done and a week ago we would have said the race was dead even ourselves in the "gallup poll" but night by night with the large sample we aggregate we have seen romney move out to that 51/45, 7-day average we talk about and that is what we are showing among likely voters, nationally and registered voters, closer to being even. >> chris: you also had a poll of 12 battleground states and let's look at at: it shows romney leading by four points in the 12 bat

the editor in chief of the gallup poll, frank newport is back with us again.od to see you. >> good morning. >> when you ask people their overall impressions, they say slightly more to mitt romney. what's the takeaway from the debates? >> basically even, 46-44, so this is very specific now. think about all three debates and people put it together and it breaks even. so, the takeaway is what we would call a primacy effect. how is that for a nice word? >> what does it mean? >> the first debate out of the chute seems to say that it's a more important debate. >> maybe a wash. >> you about it was not strong for one candidate than the other even though they differentially performed. >> mitt romney has a three-point lead among likely voters but it was as high as seven a week ago. so, again, here we are 11 days out from the election, how close is this race? >> it's quite close, but as you can see here and i think other polls are showing the same thing that there is an edge to mitt romney in the popular national vote, now, this is within the margin of error but neverthe

i'm glad you'll be talking to frank newport this morning. >> yeah, we are. the top of the hour, newport, the editor in chief of gallup, and gallup is the granddaddy of all presidential polls. been doing it since the 1930s and they came out with a number, they do a seven-day tracking poll. over the course of seven days they talk to 3,000 people and the eighth day they drop the first day, and it's a continuing rolling seven-day. at one point it showed mitt romney with a 7-point age, now a 6-point edge. 51 to 54. that still is way outside the clear politics which averages the polls shows obama with a lead of one-tenth of one point. a 6-point edge is really out of line and we're going to talk to him. is he right and everybody else wrong or are they off on an island by themselves? >> chris, i look to you to straighten things out for me. >> we'll try. >> thanks again for your time this morning. >> thanks, melanie. you can catch fox 5 news sunday at 9:00 a.m. after our show. >>> we have all the runners out there today. and what great football weather. >> we have th

expert analysis om the best in the business joining us, the editor-in-chief of gallup polls, frank newporte, be with us. weere coming rightk. lou: we don't know how much of liberal hollywood has shifted to governor romney, but at least part of i has. qualified comedy writers. here are some of the funniest moments of last night's alfred e. smith charityinner. >> campaign can require a lot of rdrobe changes. we -- blue jeans in the moing, peaps, suits for a lunch fundraiser, sport coat for dinn, but it's nice to finally relax and to wearhat ann and i wear around the house. [laughter] >> everyone, please, te your ses, oherwise clint eastwood wi yell at them. [laughter] >> i never suggest that the press is biased. i cognize they have their job to do, and i have my job to do. my job is lay out a posive vion for the future of the country, and their job is to make sure no one else finds out about it. [laughter] >> i h a lot more energy in our second debate. [laughter] i waseallyell rested after the nice long nap i had in the first debate. [laughter] >> but people seem to be very curious as to how

frank newport the head of the gallup organization had a blog posting that was revealing. he said you have to subject the state polls to the judgment of experience. he said for example, take ohio. the president won there by less than five points last time around. this time around, the poll that said he is winning by ten, does it make sense he would do twice as well, the margin is twice as big this time around than it was in 2008 when everybody is pointing to closer election than in 2008. of course not. it doesn't make sense. take this with the nevada and ohio shifts because of outlier polls. p.p.p. interestingly enough had a poll that was the outlier in nevada, plus nine for obama. then two polls in ohio. as a result they move it across the line from tossup to lean obama. i would say this, though. step back just a little bit and look at the arch since april. president obama has gone from 220 solid states, electoral college votes to 196 today. whereas mitt romney has gone from 135 to 156. this race is up for grabs. battlefield is broader than april. very much up for grabs.

expert analysis from the best in the business joining us, the editor-in-chief of gallup polls, frank newport, joe trippi among our guests. please, be with us. weere ming right back. all energy development comes with some risk, but proven technologies allow natural gas producers to supply affordable, cleaneener, while protecting our environment. across america, these tenologies protect air - by monitoring air quality and reducing emissions... ...protect water - through conservation and self-contained recycling system.. ... and protect land - by reducing our footprint and respecting wildlife. america's natural gas... domestic, abundant, clean energy to power our lives... that's smarter power today. lou: we don't know how much of liberal hollywood has shifted to governor romney, but at least part of it has. qualied comedy writers. here are some of the funniest moments of last night's alfred e. smith chary d dinner. >> campaign can require a lot of wardrobe changes. we -- blue jeans in the morning, perhaps, suits for a lunch fundraiser, sport coat for dinner, but it' nice to finally relax and to

expert analysis from the best in the business joining u the editor-in-chf of gallup polls, frank newport joe trippi amo our guests. pleasebe with us. pleasebe with us. ere coming right back.k. lte is the fastest. so, which supeast 4g lte service would yochoose, based on this chart ? dot rush into it, i'm t looking for the fastest answer. obviously verizon. okay, i have a different chart. going that way, does that ma a difference ? look at verizon. it's so much me than the other one so what if we just changed the format altogether ? isn't that the exact same thing ? it's pretty clear. still icking with verizon. verizon. more 4g lte coverage th all other networks combined. lou: we don't know how much of libel hollood has shifted to governor romney, but at least part of it has. qualified comedy writers. he are some of the funniest moments of last night's aled e. smh charity dinne >> campaign can require a lot o wardrobe canges. we -- blue jeans in the morning, perhaps, suits for a lunch fundraiser, sport coat for dinner, but it's nice to finally relax d to wear w ann and i wear around the h

expert analysis from the best in the business joining us, e editor-in-chief of galluolls, frank newport, ed rollins, joe trippi among our guests. please, be with us. please, be with us. weere coming right back. jack, you're a little boring. boring. bori. [ jack ] after lauren broke up with me, i went to the citi private pass page and decided to be...not boring. that's how i met marilyn... giada... really good. yes! [ jack ] ...and alia. ♪ this rl is on fire [ male announcer ] use any citi® card to get the benefits of private pass. more concerts. more events. more experiences. [ jack ] hey, who's boring now? [ male announcer ] get more cess with a ci card. [ cwd cheering, mouse clicks ] lou: we don't know how much of liberal hollywood has shifted to governor romney, but at least part of it has. qualified comedy writers. here are some of the funniest moments of last night's alfred e. smithh charity dinner. >> campaign can require a lot of wardrobe changes. we -- blue jeans in the morning, perhaps, suits for a lunch fundraiser, sport coat for dinner, t it's nice to finally rex and to wear

. >> jonathan, frank newport was on "jansing & co." in the last hour, and he says that the numbers that he's seeing overnight show that president obama is picking back up. now, their new tracking is going to come out at 1:00 p.m. eastern time, but with these troubling battleground numbers, the obama campaign is still harping on "sesame street" and big bird, and we showed it, that new campaign ad. >> uh huh. >> here's more of the president, though. take a look at this, more of the president hitting romney last night. >> oscar's hiding out in his trash can. we're cracking down on him. governor romney's plan is to let wall street run wild again, but he's going to bring the hammer down on "sesame street." >> republicans already hitting back on this as we saw with john mccain. so, this detour through sesame street, is that really a wise way to try to put some upheaval in romney's trajectory toward pennsylvania avenue? i mean, this strategy, talking about big bird. >> yeah, well, look at it this way, the debate was so dispiriting for the pre

senators dick durb and i know lindsay graham and his interview with gallup's editor in chief, frank newportsunday, airing at 2:00 and 6:00, eastern. here's a question: would you pay to see a robot squirrel fight a live rattlesnake? guess what! it's happening. did you pay for t. american taxpayer dollars at work. the latest report on government waste, it involves robo-squirrel, right after the break. i'm freaking out man. why? i thought jill was your soul mate. no, no it's her dad. the general's your soul mate? dude what? no, no, no. he's, he's on my back about providing for his little girl. hey don't worry. e-trade's got a killer investing dashboard. everything is on one page, your investments, quotes, research... it's like the buffet last night. whatever helps you understand man. i'm watching you. oh yeah? well i'm watching you, watching him. [ male announcer ] try the e-trade 360 investing dashboard. >> with the economy and many americans struggling, seeing tax dollars spent unwisely is unnerving. some of the most wasteful spending in 2012. >> a sign of poor leadership. >> dr. tom coburn

we'll have the head of the organization, frank newport on our show sunday.st of all what is so interesting is the number, the margin is quite remarkable, also gallop did a swing-state poll and they found that the gender gap, the fact that women were supporting obama by a wide margin over romney is virtually gone. the obama campaign is very unhappy and says the poll is wrong. where he had a lead in double digits i think it's one point in the swing states. if that states up, one if it's right, and two if it continues, obama is going to lose. there are two things there, it may be wrong and it could change but he can't win with a one-point margin among women. martha: we have a few weeks left to sort it all out for both sides. one of the most significant and talked about moments in the second presidential debate was the question on libya that we will i went unanswered by president obama so he has another chance to get a crack at this and no doubt bob shaffer will bring it up and some say mitt romney didn't do that well in answering that question. what are you loo

it's increasingly possible where you could have a situation like 2000 where one guy wins, frank newportllup, where you had one guy win the popular vote like gore did and the one guy wins the electoral vote because he wins in swing states. i doubt that will happen because it's hard to build that kind of scenario but it is possible and you're seeing that conceivably play out with obama's lead in the swing states and romney's lead in the national poll. it is looking increasingly like romney has won, or is going to win in the southeast, in the swing states of florida and north carolina, and virginia, and when i talked to the top obama people they are not talking about the midwest as their fire wall, and it's the three states of ohio, iowa, and wisconsin, that's their fire wall, and if they could win all three, then they win. if they start to lose those states then romney will be the next president. martha: i can't think of a better way to get ready for monday night than to watch "fox news on sunday. martha: he will have senators dick durbin and lindsey graham. check your listings what time

but frank newport says town halls are as real as it gets. >> they're going to actually have human beingslists are the human beings, but we're having average voters who are going to come up and ask questions. because i think those are the people who are going to be voting. and why not? >> reporter: now, newport says that the process of vetting these participants, getting them ready for debate night has gotten much more complicated. he says when they first got started back in the '90s, these folks didn't show up here until about 5:00, just a few hours before the debate started. wolf? >> dan lothian on the scene for us. thank you. if you live state, let's say ohio or florida, you're probably being unin dated with political ads as election day approaches. let's bring in our chief national correspondent john king at the magic wall. these ads in these states, what do they tell us about the race? >> there's a lot of this back and forth you'll hear in the debate tonight. you're already seeing play out in the ads where campaigns are adjusting. big poll showing a disappearing of the so-called gend

stands out so much that we're going to have the head of gallup on our show at the top of the hour frank newport show obama in with a slight lead or romney with a slide lead in the real clear politics average it's a dead heat. it's 47.1 to 47. >> it's a weird anomaly because 18 other pollsters have more consistent number than gallup is the outlier there. swing state polls are also interesting, chris, because you have now according to rasmussen and we will have scott rasmussen on in just an hour with the brand new very latest polls 50% to president obama 46%. that is trouble. >> well, that certainly is as i say, the trend is consistent. now, there are a lot of other polls that show it's much closer in the swing state. so, you know, you just don't quite know what's right. clearly, romney has closed the gap. nationally, and closed the gap in he key swick states. probably taken the plead in florida according to the latest fox news poll. closed the gap. still trailing in ohio but by a very narrow margin. i think what's clear is this is going to be right down to the wire and probably going to be to be