i am frank verrastro. holding theonor of chair in energy and geopolitics. a couple of administration topics. in the case of an emergency exit, it is down the steps and out the front and we assemble the street from the hotel. you can also take a left going up the doors and that brings you down by national geographic on m street. just so we are good. this morning session, i am excited about. , 2014,st or september coupleues here wrote a of items when people were still talking about coming out of this turnaround really quickly. we thought it would be lower for a lot longer. when you look at the opportunity pool and you looked at what we demand, we bleak were starting to build up overhang and didn't see how you could work it off that quickly. over that time, production has continued to increase. stocks have continued to be built. and the demand-side has gotten weaker and caused concern. about a year ago, we assembled a panel similar to this end it was such a huge success -- almost everyone on the panel nailed this much to the chagrin of the investors and the pa