we continue with jason furman.linkage of america international economics. nathan sheets is with us. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ taylor: this is "bloomberg surveillance." procter & gamble is adding over-the-counter medicines to its lineup. merck wants to put more money into testing new drugs. a $7.4r is planning billion share buyback. it is a way for the company to as mass-markets brands such as dove scop -- dove power.e -- lose buying first quarter sales of nestle got a boost from americans spending more on pats. -- on pets. in the united states the pet care business improved and there was stronger demand for foods and online sales. the sale of nestle's american confectionary unit weighed on the results. much.ne: thank you so we are looking at live pictures of london. we do also have the queen and .rince charles they will talk about further integration or them splitting up. i will bring you data from the u.k. we are a lot of snow in the u.k. as in the u.s. for march.s plunging my view of the commonwealth event here and

here are today's contestants -- a junior at furman university, from baton rouge, louisiana...at tufts university, from los altos, california... and a freshman at georgia tech, from memphis, tennessee... and now here is the host of "jeopardy!" -- alex trebek! [ cheers and applause ] thank you, johnny. thank you, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome again to our program. 15 players have qualified for the college championship this year. by the time we get down to our 2-day final match at the end of next week, we'll be down to three players. what's going to happen today? rishab, william, and caroline, good luck. here we go! now the categories... sounds appropriate. i sound like a parent. you have to identify the network or channel for the shows we will tell you about. and finally, you're gonna love it... you always do. rishab. remember your music lessons for $600, please. william. -what are frets? -no. caroline or rishab? [ beep ] what are cords? back to you, rishab. remember your music lessons, $400, please. william. -what is rosin? -good. music lessons, $200.

his point person, tyrone viewed got on the job, teamed up with my key person, rich furman, and teamed up with important staff from the department. and ferry operators stepped up and agreed to make this change. so now with their partnership, we will have cleaner air for everyone in san francisco. and we are becoming alternative fuels leaders for ferries in san francisco at the exact time that we're expanding our ridership. it's such a great partnership to see more people on the bay and more people in ferries and knowing that's true ae going to be cleaner. we are so graceful to our late mayor for his call to action and for city staff and ferry operators who saw his vision through. and it will not stop here. we will be advancing other environmental initiatives, and we will be rebuilding this harbor to keep it safe, environmentally secure and keep it great for future generations. this is a beautiful waterfront, and we aim to keep it that way. thank you all for coming. [applause]. >> thank you, elaine and thank you inform poto port commissio port staff who have been such champions of this.

i say that because when we came back to look at this case, judge furman asked kristin and our team to go to toronto to meet with andrea. that was a difficult task. when kristin came back, she was adamant, adamant about what we should do. we moved forward. it was the right thing to do, and she has stuck through this the whole way. she had an opportunity, which was kind of a bad day for me when she had a great opportunity for her and her family to go to an excellent law firm. we talked a lot. kristin did not want to leave this. and not see it to the end. we talked to bill sasso, the chairman of the firm who we all owe a debt of gratitude to for allowing her to stay on with us and stay with us through this case. and you have seen the results of that. she, like mr. ryan here, has prosecuted so many sexual assaults, domestic violence cases. she's always stood up for victims and has continued to do this. i couldn't have found two better partners through this, two better people, two better prosecutors to walk this journey with. their commitment to doing the right thing has been extraordinary

quantitative evidence and one piece of quantitative evidence stand out some colleagues of mine, matt furman at texas a&m, a good book from a year ago with cambridge university press and they argue nuclear weapons don't matter for international coercion. they collect quantitative data set, every military threat issued in international politics from 1918 to the present and look at the success rates of nuclear armed states when they issue these threats and compare that to the success rate of nonnuclear states when they issue these threats and say the success rate is 20%. 20% of the time when they issue these threats the adversary gives them so the success rate is the same and nuclear weapons don't seem to matter. i was interested in this. contrary to what i was arguing a little bit. and essentially a lot of cases of nonnuclear states threatening nonnuclear states since 1918. that is not what i was interested in. let's look at cases of nuclear states threatening nuclear states. according to their data nuclear states have issued these threats 49 times since 1945. guess how many of those threats

you had my colleague jason furman on yesterday.hink doug and i probably agree and he can correct me -- if you have a recession, the g cannot stay at this level forever. and youave a recession have blown out you don't have anything for when you need it . douglas: my bigger concern is that we have a lot of debt and we can finance it. we make that argument and people will continue making that argument and one day it will not be true. i don't want to find out what day that is. tom: i want you to explain the constraints that chairman powell has because of the debt and deficit perceived by so many. 's chairman powell's degrees of constrainedchoices because of the trillion dollar deficit? choices maybe not its but effectiveness. or any central bank is a taker of fiscal policy. its goal is not to move fiscal policy. when banks do that, it causes problems. the issue will be if you are mentioning another financial path. if there's a recession, and the fed does not have rates up very high, they don't have much room to cut. if the fiscal polic

not for her and i say that because when -- when we came back to look at this case, reesa and judge furman now asked kristen and some of our team to go to toronto to meet with andrea and that was a difficult task and when kristen came back, she was adamant, adamant about what we should do, and we moved forward and it was the right thing to do and she has stuck through this the whole way, and she had an opportunity, which was kind of a bad day for me when she had a great opportunity for her and her family to go to an excellent law firm, stradley ronan and we talked a lot and kristen did not want to leave this and not see it to the end, and we talked to bill sasso the chairman of the firm who we all owe a debt of gratitude too, for allowing her to stay on with us and stay with us through this case. and -- and you have seen the results of that. she, like, like mr. ryan here has prosecuted so many sexual y assaults and domestic violence cases and i couldn't have found two better partners and two better people, two better prosecutors to walk this journey with. their commitment to doing the righ

even jason furman, the former cea chair, wrote about this. winter storms in the first quarter. so economically significant storms. so smoothing through that, this number's just about three. but down in the details you can see that the policies are working exactly as you and i have discussed, so there's a big surge in capital data despite the storms. if you go q1 over q1, the average american family because of president trump's policies ge of $2,900. that was in the data as well. stuart: should tell you the numbers were a bit stronger than expected, they've upped the forecast for the quarters still to come. i'm seeing one analyst saying, look, we're going to get to 3.5% annualized growth in the second quarter of the year. that's kind of optimistic, isn't it? >> i think that's about what will happen if we get the normal seasonal pattern. the first quarter has been low by as much as a percentage point, and then in the next couple of quarters it's been maybe a little higher than it should be by an offsetting amount. but, yeah, i think right now y

when the trump boom started, when we started talking about this stuff, the trump, jason furman came oute problem you can't do what trump says, it is systemic. that is the problem with obama. we didn't fail, it was everything changed. larry summers comes out and says, believing trump's prediction of 3% gdp growth is like believing in tooth fairies. guess what, for first three quarters of this year we averaged 3.1% and so 3% is something like believing in tooth fairies. i guess now we all need to believe in tooth fairies. stuart: i am glad you brought me a free copy night is yours. stuart: will you autograph it? >> i absolutely will. stuart: pleasure having you on the show. >> thank you. stuart: let me turn to something else here. very shortly we'll bring you president trump and emannuel macron tape from their meeting, some comments from the president. right now we have the dow industrials down 43 points. we have yield on 10-year treasury, right at 3%. now, ladies and gentlemen, here is president trump meeting with france's president emannuel macron. >> mr. president, they're all saying w