and g.d.p. statistics.o we do capture those, and i don't think there's any bias because of the coverage. host: mr. steve landefeld you have been the director in bureau of economic analysis. but your background, did you not work for the bush one white house? is that -- how do you keep politics out of b.a.e. -- b.e.a. in your analysis? getting pressured to put things in your analysis? guest: in my time as director of b.e.a., we really have had no political pressure. indeed i recall an instance where we had to change an update which lowered the rate going into a political discussion and that was raised by the director brown and he said if it's the right thing to do, do it. 1c0 there's a lot of perceptions of pressure, but in reality we don't. and we are an all professional organization. i'm career civil service and everyone who works there is and i should add now the when i was with the counsel of economic that assistics -- i -- caller: in your tenure, i think you said 1997 to the present, i'll use my example.

exports make up 13% of g.d.p. government spending, 21% of g.d.p. and investment 12% of g.d.p. if you could walk us through those four elements of what makes up the g.d.p. >> about 70% of g.d.p. is included spending on durable and non-durable goods. things like tv's and automobiles. host: doesn't matter where they are produced? guest: no. we net that out later in the computation of g.d.p. but it's what we spend and then we have non-durable goods, which is your clothing and those sorts of things, and then we have services which is the largest component of consumer spending which is you're spending on your education, movies, the whole range of medical care and other services. host: so that all comes under consumption which is 70% of the economy. guest: yes, and things likes plant and equipment and exploration expenditures for oil wells as welt as spending on things like software and other instangibles that we measure. >> also the goods and services abroad. then finally the government piece. i should note when we talk about this share of government, we are talking about actual gov

we're at about eighty seven percent i think right now g.d.p. in terms of our debt and truman and mostly eisenhower didn't cut our way to prosperity in fact i'm not sure of any country that has they spent money like crazy you know the national highway system the g.i. bill. the marshall act is it out well glad you bring that up because those are some of the things that i'm working on to clarify in my book right now it is true that at one moment at the end of world war two federal debt was one hundred twenty percent of g.d.p. but in the depression we wiped out all of the private debt during world war two there was rationing and massive pressure for people to save because there was nothing to buy the shelves were empty so even though we had a lot of federal debt we had virtually zero private debt so that from the beginning to the end of the war believe this or not the total debt of our society for business has. and government went down not up then we had truman who balanced the budget three or four times we had eisenhower who yes did the interstate

this is a of g.d.p. increase. 5% of g.d.p. is a very big number and that's why i think many people believe that there should be changes in that part of the budget. >> so the 22.7% of g.d.p. is spending in that 2021 estimate under current law and current policy, the major driver is social security and major health care programs as compared to the historic average, about 20.8%. up to 20.9%. my understanding is even under current policy revenues go up above the 18% level. the $9.3 trillion is a more realistic estimate. is that correct? a slight increase? >> yes, a slight increase. i'm not sure exactly but yes, a slight increase. one fact here. the number of americans over the age of 65 is going to rise by about 1/3 in the coming decade. 1/3 more beneficiaries of sornle security and medicare -- social security and medicare a decade from now roughly than there are today. on top of that with higher health care costs per person, one can see how these programs are becoming more expensive over time. >> senator kerry? >> thank you, mada

export import balance in this case russia is the country that actually adds up to the global g.d.p.and it will not is not going to face any major crisis of course there is a global economy and we know there are crisis in the euro zone which could easily cause the collapse of the whole euro zone if greece is followed by spain italy and other large conscious you know european union is our major. partner also. the science of second wave of recession in the united states so it's not going be easy in russia but you know the first wave of crisis back three years ago was passed by russia relatively easily not only in economic terms but its social demographic and political terms so russian are the pillars of russian political system. well i guess in these context you see. the global economy is going to have a lost decade but russian economy is going to develop when you're younger said the reason i'm asking is that putin's popularity let's face it i mean we're within his first term in office was very highly based on the high oil prices he gave a lot to to country economically so will he be a

the people and generally this task has been solved russian g.d.p. has been steadily growing since then generally the quality of living in russia has been improving but now the rain huge challenges putin has grown in you. in russia and that's already a fact these people demand are more freedom they demand more political freedom they want to take more active part in the social political life and in this case i think . putin has also or proven him to be a person who is ready to change with the country as the country changes he also changes we have seen primaries in the united russia and russia party primaries which are a good front from what is usually understood under this roof in the american experience because you know how full of. so-called poor people's front gets into duma they're not members of united russia those are people who don't belong to any party they're just popular in their village in their district but people know all of them respect with them and they want to see them in state duma that is a long one. russian parliament you know this

falls debt to g.d.p. ratio skyrocket and it's over the point here is that you cannot get to that point that straw that breaks the camel's back i hate platitudes but that's true once you cross the rubicon there is no answer but default greece will default that means somebody has to take the pain and it's going to be either the banks or it's going to be this central bank creating inflation and then everybody suffers why do you think gold is up hell most every day up over eighteen dollars an ounce and gold stars are starting to rise and. that we have a nice allocations of gold stocks because it is no secret anymore we're going to monetize or at least attempt to monetize the situation in a way which has never worked in the history of planet earth you mentioned greece and everybody expecting it to default on that doesn't seem unlikely or out of the ground for most people but you know whether or not it will lead to euro zone is certainly up for debate talk to me about what you expect to see next if anything can

has proven to be a real leader of a new russia russian g.d.p. has almost doubled in the last twelve years while social stability here and the development have been achieved so there are good grounds for continuing these. way of conducting borth foreign and domestic policy and most russians do really support this plan to do dude mutually agree that this is it. the intrigue and intrigue is now no longer i would say never say you're sure especially in russia because the country. we have seen a lot of times during the last twenty years or maybe even i would say twenty five years that it's very difficult to predict something in russia for sure the situation may develop in a lot of greece but. fortunately or unfortunately now it's more or less clear that in march the president will be very much. according to changes the constitution the russian president will be elected for six years he could be there for two terms so do you think that when you put it will be there for the next twelve years or. we cannot be so sure now we were never there we're talkin

it's an increase worth 5% of g.d.p.t of that spending goes to benefits for people over age 65, with smaller shares for blind and disabled people and for nonelderly, able-bodied people. in stark contrast under current law, all spending apart from social security and the major healthcare programs and interest payments on the debt is projected to decline noticeably as a share of the economy. that broad collection of programs includes defense, the largest single piece, the supplemental nutrition assistance program, formerly known as food stamps, unemployment compensation, veterans benefits, federal civilian and military retirement benefits, transportation, health research, education and training and other programs. that whole collection of programs has incurred spending averaging 11.5% of g.d.p. during the past 40 years. with expected improvement in the economy and new caps on discretionary spending, it falls in our projection by 2021 to less than 8% of g.d.p., the lowest share in more than 40 years. under current law in ou

in fact, an kuhl revenues have only exeded 20% of g.d.p.st 70 years and two of those times were at the end of world war ii when our nation was still running high deaf silts. the other time was in 2000 when the annual revenue, 20.6% of g.d.p., took place at the height of the stock market bubble. this temporary spike in revenue was bound to come down as soon as the bubble popped, and it did, which also coincided with other, the post-9/11 recession that occurred. in fact, in 2000, of the other 11 times since 1940 when our budget nab surplus, revenues were less than 20% of g.d.p. and seven of those years, they were below 19% of g.d.p., it's also important to note that our budget has never been in balance when it exceeded 19.4% of g.d.p. i appreciate that many of our witnesses today note in their prepared testimony that while tax reform is an important goal for congress, fundamental entitlement reform must be a primary and immediate goal for congress as it is the largest driver by far of our long-term fiscal shortfall. nevertheless, even if we d

g.d.p. that works out to more than $3.5 trillion, more than the g.d.p. of germany, and more than half the g.d.p.'s of china and japan. so the promise is clear. what then is the problem? if women are already making such contributions to economic growth, why do we need a major realignment in our thinking, our markets and our policies? why do we need to issue a decoration from this summit? well because evidence of progress is not evidence of success. and to be sure, the rate of progress for women in the economies of our region varies widely. laws, customs and the values that fuel them provide road blocks to full inclusion. in the united states and in every economy in apeck, millions of women are still sidelined, unable to find a meaningful place for themselves in the work force. some of those though get to enter the work force are really confined by very clear signals to a lower rung on the job ladder, and there is a web of legal and social restrictions that limit their potential. or they are confronted with a glass ceiling that keeps them from the most sen

quarterly g.d.p. growth and that of the largest european countries and so the correlation here has risen to above seventy percent in the last ten years from less than twenty percent in the prior ten years and i think that's a pretty incredible sign that means that in the future there's no such thing as america having a great year and europe not so much that we're always going to have to be even on some terms that correlation does speak volumes as you mentioned in economist attribute it to the connections in trade and the interdependence there as well as the impact of the financial crisis which obviously hit both of them very hard and the interwoven financial system which you kind of are touching upon absolutely a european debt crisis isn't just a european debt crisis because european banks are affected they are running low on capital or they are exposed to this debt but then so are u.s. banks because they are exposed to the debt or their ex they insured the debt that is on these banks books so there i

falls debt to g.d.p. ratio skyrocket and it's all over the point here is that you cannot get to that point that straw that breaks the camel's back i hate latitudes but that's true once you cross the rubicon there is no answer but the fall greece will default that means somebody has to take that pain and it's going to be either the vanquished or it's going to be this central bank creating inflation and then everybody suffers why do you think gold is up almost every day up over eighteen dollars an ounce and gold stocks are starting to rise as pent up or fall the us treasury have a nice allocation to gold stocks because it is no secret anymore we're going to monetize or at least attempt to monetize the situation a way which has never worked in the history of planet earth a lot of interesting points as always from micro pencil president of and so far only a.

it makes that two point seven percent of their g.d.p. so check out the staggering difference between a united states and its next biggest competitor china a recent report shows the u.s. spends six times more on its military than china does so with all of this spending done in a post nine eleven world where does this leave us now ten years later that's a question that we would still like to answer let's talk about what the money and casualties have cost us and what it's achieved ten years later has it been worth it to talk about that lawrence works in colonel lawrence wilkerson the retired u.s. army colonel and former chief of staff to colin powell we're so happy to have you here so in the reports that i've been doing we kind of compare the deaths between iraq and afghanistan in the world trade center so sixty two hundred u.s. troops have died in iraq and afghanistan that's more than double they were killed in the world trade center is that an appropriate cost for in response to the to the attack of the twin towers that's why i said when

was actually revised higher q three g.d.p. is actually expected to be higher than q two g.d.p. was actually the economy some numbers aren't that bad so this will be a pretty good test of them it should be interesting and well i can't wait to see which way i hope that their prediction is wrong but it seems like. thanks so much for joining us tonight thank you. coming up next we have fireside friday and a happy hour if the three hundred pound elephant in the g.o.p. presidential race and we're talking about chris christie's weight wasn't really an issue plus a ideal heard only ten years prices at the expiration date of. this number given that we had an apartheid regime right here. i think iraq is evil and well. we never got the show's live or keep him safe get ready because you are free to. get some closure see a story and it seems so. easy to understand it and then you glimpse something else and hear see some other part of it and realize that everything is all going on charge locums a big picture. we just put a picture of a need when i was like nine years old and just you know li

and that crisis in europe are all weighing on the country's economy their old bank has cut its g.d.p. forecast to floor percent from four point four percent for this year but high oil prices and lower inflation could help russia sustain growth. well i think that you should really. look at your situation in russia is fairly favorable for a surplus that it probably almost doubles budget this year but i think that temporary paper which situation should be used. for sure is reading through physical description of reducing the normal fiscal deficit in medium term which i think would be important for russia to significantly strengthen its fiscal position over the medium term so i think the overall picture is that the short term picture is favorable but they're really serious medium term a structural issue if they will go in russia or should be listening to climate in a disputation. interest their trips in. the us take a look at the markets that will start with boiler crude prices are higher right now after a three month employment figures in the euro zone john the most since the find out so

yes i think so the greek economy is in an outright depression now g.d.p. is shrinking at the moment seven to eight percent on an annual basis unemployment is of peacefully at sixteen percent but in reality it's more close to twenty five percent what we hear from people from the i.m.f. informally is that the situation is out of control so there's no way that greek and greece can escape from this situation unless there's a somewhat orderly exit from the eurozone followed by a huge devaluation of the new greek currency ever greece does declare it a thought what's likelihood of other states following suit well that will be the big challenge i think we have passed the point now where we can argue that we can save greece within the euro zone greece will ask to exit it can be organized in an orderly way but the risk is of course that there will be contagion in the direction of countries like for example poor to go maybe islands and of course i'm not even mentioning here that would be an enormous problem countries like spain for example . now the resignation of a

perhaps it's coincidence but we hit 90% of g.d.p. in the early part of this year, january, and immediately we're not having the growth that people projected. o.m.b. and c.b.o. projected growth this year to be 3.1%. and it's not going to be close to that, it's going to be about a point or two below that. dr. zandi, i teased him a little bit yesterday, he predicted 3.9%. now moody analytics, his firm i, -- firm, is predicting for the year 1.6%, i have my doubts we're going to reach that. so 1.6% is about 2% below what he predicted. do you think it's possible, i ask all three of you, that the unexpected fall in growth projections from blue chip economists and the government and dr. zandi, do you think that could be because we've already reached this debt limit , that empirical studies indicated would cause a decline in growth? dr. rivlin, do you want to start? if you have an opinion. >> i do have an opinion. i think it's an interesting, but totally irrelevant coincidence. and the reason i think that is the rinehart study which is a fasc

which makes the debt burden grow more and more relative to the g.d.p. economy which makes it harder harder for them to pay back so you're seeing getting getting adele out money actually makes their debt problem work with the with the conditions that they put in place getting the money and then also cutting a starter but not liquidating the debt or not defaulting a part of it that makes it impossible because the debt is so big at this point that the interest payments are eating into capital investment and the uncertainty around the economy is making it so that investors don't want to invest in the economy they don't want to hire new workers so it's just a spiral for the economy a downward spiral so would it be fair to say that the more bailout money that greece gets the worse it gets for the country the more billion one people the more bit below money and ultimately because they're not faulting on the debt or they're not rushing restructuring the debt if they were getting money and they also the fault of the dead would be great if they were getting money

mean it's obvious to anyone that greece should default on its head yes one hundred seventy percent of g.d.p. it has economy contracts and have said yeah there's absolutely no way could be good to be. that it actually if you do if you are in the boat and so basically kind of hedge funds and they know they're not going to be. present on the air i don't know but i did lucky to get fifty cents on the air and then i'd settle for something bad but that's a scared of the losses so you have a sort of day to be empty and the bank or the rest of it that allowed it to happen that it would be much better for everyone if the peripheral countries to default and then if they needed rescue dogs to bad for me to go out you could have a debate about afterwards if you did. this you were going to be. right where everything's about buddhadeb what could see the figures be much better and we had to michoud with sweden in latvia of course the swedish banks were terrified as was the swedish government lothians with the poles and i think you're absolutely right matthew we need to get right on we have to stop maintai

for behind britain france or the usa where at least half of g.d.p. comes from small enterprises prime minister putin has recently named support for small and medium business among the country's priorities over the years the federal budget has been increasing the amount of subsidies it has sent out to the regions for the development of small and medium business however the practice has been criticised within the government itself the ministry of finance doubts the effectiveness of the handouts rather than loans another problem is then willingness of russian capital to invest in start ups it's much easier for russian and tipper nurse to find understanding in money abroad ideas go west as a result is such a forum will explore solutions for reversing the trend. well. we we we saw you should biography in the beginning of the program you were very young you just over thirty what did you achieve so far you have a public figure so we don't know a lot about you what have you done which made you. such a high position with only the head of a fortune above you i

. >> just in terms of its impact on, say, g.d.p. or the job market, it's just fairly low. in fact, in many ways, other sectors of the economy, such as agriculture, are now more important on a percentage of output than even housing. >> reporter: and, finally, some say america's fragile economy could get some help from overseas. while europe is unlikely, we might see a reacceleration of growth in emerging markets. >> then, especially, the manufacturing and the parts of the economy that are exporting and facing emerging markets benefiting from that growth. those could start to see a turnaround as well. >> reporter: to be sure, it's getting harder for experts to detail why we're not headed for recession. but, the good news is that there's still a list of possible reasons. suzanne pratt, "nightly business report," new york. >> susie: joining us now, mohamed el-erian, c.e.o. of pimco, the world's largest bond fund. >> i think we can avoid t. it's possible to avoid t but there isn't much time. the economy if left to its own devices will go into recession. the consumers don't have

do nothing we should get rid of them in a stand italy's in deep debt one hundred twenty percent of g.d.p. the second highest in europe but unions a furious with the cuts accusing the government of punishing those already at their poorest even some of silvio berlusconi's own allies now oppose them with amendments piling up but filipinos fed up the term and to be the next san marino a constitutional republic within italy that has no national debt a rare thing in europe the methinks the town can live off its natural resources of wood and water but currently profits go to private companies there are constitutional hurdles but since autonomy is not illegal it could just be a matter of time at the moment these notes aren't legal tender they're just souvenirs but the plan is for two theory to it to be worth one euro and for this to be the only currency they could be spent in the shops and restaurants here business is always been slow in the sleepy town but shopkeepers hope the new money will bring new cash. i'm sure that once we start using the new currency the economic situation here will sign

states that it will it could potentially destroy a country of three hundred million with a massive g.d.p. etc and no one ever basically still known as challenging that preposterous assertion and ok mr you know i think it's really interesting i mean i would agree with you i remember.

go on to say if germany left it would result in a twenty to twenty five percent collapse in their g.d.p. it would also cause a global trade to collapse u.b.s. is in the business of churning people's accounts on mercifully to make u.b.s. brokers and bankers and money every day they come out with a news story and it's usually a contradiction of the previous day's story if you listen the u.b.s. or in these other bankers you're going to lose everything because they're there fraud they're complete nutter fraud and they've been shown to be fraudulent one thousand different ways to sunday and that's like going to change their business model is fraud all these banks same thing so speaking of varying cost for bailing out systems or bailing out people let's turn to the u.k. max because i have these two headlines here interesting contrast england riots across taxpayers at least one hundred thirty three million and policing in compensation so this is in the u.k. and the the rioting cost one hundred thirty three million pounds people are out in arms about this but if you contrast that to the head. l