g.d.p. numbers for the fourth quarter out of the mainstream financial press is reporting that a two point eight percent growth rate so that we finally may be on the road towards recovery really if you take into account consumer price inflation and the fact that more than two thirds of the g.d.p. numbers reflects companies restocking their mentors the pictures look so rosy in fact it looks like a country on the verge of another recession speaking with prominent financial blogger mike shell blog to get his take on this and other economic hocus pocus in a moment but for now it's good to. well it's day three of davos and there are lots of headlines out about what officials are and aren't saying regarding the eurozone and the global economic outlook but how many people there actually care about the agenda and what's missing from it while the host of capital account the lovely lauren lister is there to tell us all about it so lauren i want to i want to start off right away let's start off with dav

has what percentage of the g.d.p. today? 25? a little bess. >> rose: if they get to 25 they're bigger than the u.s. in terms of g.d.p. of the world. what's the fastest growing economy now? >>robably somewhere in africa in terms of growth rates. >> rose: because ty're such

well the g.d.p. quarter to quarter rose two point eight percent one point nine percentage points of that two point eight was refinement of inventory wasn't supposed to be that way remember the inventory replenishment was supposed to be the last quarter it didn't happen that way and so now it's happening this quarter it's happening this quarter at a time of decreasing sales and look at some of the apparel reports that come out you know i had a chart on my blog not too long ago showing a decline in the cubic metric imports of apparel and we've seen j.c. penney's come out it's now competing with wal-mart everyday low pricing forty percent price reductions across the board so we're seeing a lot of signs here you know automobiles held up. pretty well so we had amatory hold up well well if we look at what j.c. penney's is saying and doing i don't think retail sales are going to be holding up going ahead and in fact i think when the fed came out on wednesday and announced that they were going to hold rates

is misleading because g.d.p. is its gross domestic product its activity in the economy it just shows that more stuff is happening but it doesn't necessarily mean that more good stuff is happening we had g.d.p. growth during the housing boom because people were building houses and they were taking out debt and that was and the debt was growing and g.d.p. was growing and people were saying great we're in a recovery but all of that all of what was built ended up being a liability and not an asset so how does that how does that make sense to you the whole thing about debt to g.d.p. and that being what's important well well first of all i don't know what numbers paul krugman is looking at because even though the g.d.p. is growing the debt is growing faster as a percentage that was c.e.o. and chief global strategist of euro pacific capital peter schiff unfortunately we have to end it there but there's a lot more from my interview with peter including his outlook for gold that will be posting on to our capital account y

about debt to g.d.p. and that being what's important well well first of all i don't know what numbers paul krugman is looking at because even though the g.d.p. is growing the debt is growing faster as a percentage. that was c.e.o. and chief global strategist of euro pacific capital peter schiff unfortunately we have to end it there but there's a lot more from my interview with peter including his outlook for gold that will be posting on to our capital account you tube channel tomorrow so be on the lookout for that. and that's our show thanks for tuning in feel free to call me at covering delta and as always the lovely laura lister who is in davos lauren lyster and give us feedback at our show our channel and you can have a workout i'm going to get from everyone here in capital account of a good night. one year down the line in egypt is celebrating the beginning of the revolution that ousted president mubarak tens of thousands of people are now on top where but frustration over the slow pace of change has

is one hundred percent debt to g.d.p. i think japan is two hundred percent and the japanese yen was actually the strongest currency not only in two thousand and eleven but of two thousand and ten so that tells me is that valuation in the currency market is not simply a big deficit bad currency japan is the exact opposite japan's case demonstrates that large deficits large debt levels do not necessarily mean a weaker currency there's other things we've got to put into the mix really good point interesting insight intense you brought up japan i want to talk about that you g three currency the yen the euro the dollar in august i know it's been a little while since i was struck by mohamed el area and the c.e.o. of pimco in an interview he of course being the largest bond fund in the world he was saying g three currencies all have issues we no longer look at terms of in terms of the cleanest shirt we look at which is the cleanest dirty shirt. do you agree and we're going to save the dirtiest of these shirts yes sure i mean of

has what percentage of the g.d.p. today? 25? a little bess. >> rose: if they get to 25 they're bigger than the u.s. in terms of g.d.p. of the world. what's the fastest growing economy now? >>robably somewhere in africa in terms of growth rates. >> rose: because ty're such a low base. >> in terms of contributions to the world-- some people have picked up on aspects of this-- china's growth rate is almost definitely going into a phase of lor g.d.p. growth, but because they're so big, their contribution to the world is continuing to rise dramatically. so as i said a minute ago, the four brics collectively create the equivalent of anothe italy this year. china will be responsible for half of that alone, another greece every four months. >> rose: i want to go in four different directions here. first i want to go to europe. tell me what's happening in europe today, and greece, what's going to happen in the end? >> in the end. > rose: or in the near term, or is the end in the near term? >> the unfolding drama in europe is one of the mo

to keep debt from rising relative to g.d.p., the deficit would need to be about 3.5% of g.d.p. smaller in 2022 than we project under this alternative fiscal scenario. that's $900 billion of reduction in the deficit relative to the scenario in that year, 2022 alone. therefore, to put the budget on sustainable path, policymakers will need to allow federal revenues to increase between much higher pestage of g.d.p. than the average of the past 40 years. or make very large changes to social security and federal health care programs. or pursue some combination of those approaches. let me close by highlighting the consequential choice policymakers face this year. on one hand the policymakers leave current laws unchanged, the federal debt will probably recede slowly relative to the size of the economy. that would occur because a large increase in revenues and sharp restraint on federal spending, apart from the programs. however, both of those changes from historical patterns will have significant economic and social effects. moreover, the sharp fiscal restraint this year and especially

g.d.p., jobs and inflation are huge and probably averted what could have been called depression 2.0. when all is said and done, the financial and fiscal policies will have cost taxpayers a substantial sum, but not nearly as much as most had feared and not nearly as much as if policymakers had not acted at all. if the comprehensive policy responses saved the economy from another depression, as we estimate, they were well worth their cost. this chart shows dr. blinder and dr. zandi's estimate of the number of jobs we would have had without the federal response. it shows we would have had eight million fewer jobs in the second quarter of 2010 if we had not had the federal response. now, i understand dr. blinder will present estimates for the number of jobs saved in 2011 as well which i look forward to hearing. although the recovery is recently shown signs of strengthening, it's been a long and difficult road back. that's not unexpected. economists have found that following recessions caused by

right now china invests 9% of the its g.d.p.frastructure, roads, bridges things that build the future. europe investing 5% of its g.d.p. in infrastructure. here in the united states 2 had the 4% and trying to -- 2.4% and trying to figure out how to cut. research -- wait research! >> jon: i'm in the leaving. this is my show. >> good. >> jon: i'm not going to go anywhere. >> research, a key part, right, of what gives you the pipeline for great ideas of the future. as a proportion of g.d.p. we cut it in half from what we were spending in the 60s. in education we're slashing what we spend on public universities, community colleges, the things that give boot strapper kids a chance to make it. >> jon: why are we chasing corporation conditions to compete with china? we're never going to. we saw it on fox they live in dorms and they get people to work 12 hour shifts for a biscuit and cup of tea. we can't cut the corporate rate. it ain't coming back. we have to something out, right? now i'm mad at you. [ laughter ] >> we only figure some

when real g.d.p. declined by twenty eight point nine percent over four years two thousand and seven that's a lot it declined by twenty four point one percent in just two years and then two thousand and one argentina declined by twenty one point nine percent one thousand nine hundred seven max indonesia declined by fourteen point seven percent in thailand by thirteen point five percent you were there at the time that was of course due to be carried carry trade collapsed as well so well it's a common thing throughout the history of these collapses that generally it has to do with bankers and day and incredibly stupid banking tricks for their benefit and everyone else's detriment of course i'm looking at the lafayette economy collapse and something reminds me of jeffrey sachs out of that remind me of jeffrey rosen oh never mind well it took a temp point two billion dollars bailout from the e.u. and i.m.f. and the author of this article is arguing that mafia represents a key test case for the economic pol

for putin election this is from forbes and they're reporting on the new statistics which say that g.d.p. is that nearly five percent year over year ending september the key indicator they say to watch going forward will be corporate investment the latest figure of seven point seven percent year over year shows companies that started investing again after investments collapsed in late two thousand and ten and support for the consumer sector max comes from rising wages apparently there somewhere in the world that wages are actually rising wages have improved and unemployment has dropped to six point three percent from six point five percent with incomes rising more in the last month than they have all year november wages rose seven point one percent higher after inflation well you can spell brick without our brazil russia india china it's an emerging growth story it's all hot as close country in the world well it's also of course has a huge vast reserves of oil and natural gas and i know you're going to be talking to constantine gird give about that in the second half he is from moscow an

because if you when you reach the level of debt to g.d.p. ratios of one hundred percent plus like are likely to like greece you also have a very high especially if you have the economy private you needed to have a choice you have to bring your all of the. fiscal situation back to the level of sustainability over the long term and that is something that our lives trying to do unfortunately it's best times of plenty around the middle of the crisis. the part of the economy which is not working right now for our domestic is not going to continue to shrink as a result of those that are so all right because of thing going yes thanks so much for being on the kaiser report. and that's going to do it for this edition of the kaiser report with me max kaiser and stacy herbert our thank my guests constantine girl yeah you can follow constantine on twitter g t c o s t or g t cost you can follow me on twitter as well that's just max kaiser and of course you can follow stacy herbert you can send me an e-mail at kaiser report at r t t v dot are you stacey r

made it in period to study which it can get over ninety percent of g.d.p. in public debt then big growth rate tends to fall by one percent but if you can you have to limit it when you come to that little well i would agree to that but when when the story to measures until taken on such a large scale and are used to tackle such such big problems they mainly penalize they did they would repeat people the people that we see in the streets next day why are people have to be penalized while the banks are feeling pretty relaxed during the. periods when the governments are trying to tackle the crisis shouldn't bones be paralyzed first of all fight for inadequately fulfilling their role yes they should be. have been working quite a bit with latvia which has operated like that they can. the salaries most of for the people who earned more and the foreign banks take the losses. that's what you ideally should do but what you don't want is about the whole banking system falls apart that's when you have to bail them out but the we have one big example and bet is ireland

already and probably we are seeing a decline in their g.d.p. or one percent or so in the european union this year but that's not a catastrophe because if we get a real financial meltdown and it. really needs to be done now it is if the i.m.f. can mobilize the more money it's trying now to get five to six hundred billion dollars or more funding and i think that is a critical issue and indeed that of a greek default is properly handled so that it's a sorted out to be subject to big is used to that need to be resolved and the european politicians simply need to undertake proper. decisions about we don't get the start of way and are losing credibility ever more all the time the unifying theme the unifying motto of this year's dallas forum is the great transformation of this this is the sort of the the subject that all the gathering around well what kind of a transformation is the world economy facing in your opinion well of course there are several transformations here one is about the bric countries brazil russia india and china or rising. big eme

to be as it is today the euro zone has an average public ninety percent of g.d.p. and. my colleague in washington come and rinehart and harvard professor can draw golf they have. made it in period of study which shows that if you can get over ninety percent of g.d.p. in public debt then the growth rate tends to fall by one percent but if you can you have to limit it when you come to that little well i would agree to that but when when the story to measures and taken on such a large scale and i used to tackle such such big problems they mainly penalize the the ordinary people the people that we see in the streets next day why are people have to be penalized while the banks are feeling pretty relaxed during the. periods when the governments are trying to tackle the crisis shouldn't be penalized first of all for for inadequately fulfilling their role yes they should be. have been working quite a bit with latvia.