on g.d.p. targeting, first of all, reject two arguments and explain why i think it's still worth talking about. one argument we heard from larry is that if you raise your g.d.p. target it will disguise the fact you're raising the inflation target and won't work and people will notice that. the second argument i think came from jeff that he compared not only g.d.p. targeting to rigid or strict inflation targeting, in fact inflation targeting is, quote, flexible which means as stated in the fed's policy principles, the time it takes to return to the inflation target depends on the state of the economy. so in fact inflation targeting can accommodate a supply shock and you look through the temporary supply shock as you move back to target. now, i think the reason the g.d.p. targeting is worth looking at, despite the differences in appearance is actually very similar to price level targeting as john meetingsed. in particular, let me make the comparison, growth levels, targeting of the nominal g.d.p.

incremental g.d.p. has been generated for one unit one additional unit of credit has been decreasing steadily ever since the financial crisis ok so there are some clouds on the horizon . economic analyst at the institute for china studies thank you so much thank you for having me. and that brings us to the end of business update here on d w i'm going to get john's thanks for keeping me company and don't forget to take our defeat from we'll see you soon. going to. europe. unite. to find. what binds the continent to our goal right answers and stories of. spotlight on people thank you thank you tony w. . entered the conflict zone fronting the powerful. this week mike. esther's gregor the former israeli government spokesman. says that . since two zero six jerusalem. sixteen. my first boss i was the sewing machine. where i come from women are bones by this ocean to miss something as simple as learning how to write them by sight of those isn't. since i was on the phone but i want to have both eyes at the lost

think gold to g.d.p. in russia is double the nonstop all which is a source of strength say china is not there yet because their economy is much larger but they're acquiring gold why don't they are going to list a lot of trade failing there was you know hand-wringing about all the roubles dying is crashing but that's out of a good. well they they've allowed the will to trade pretty freely but they are doing it with a good central banker this is in the ninety's is in the yeltsin when you know they will collapse they're actually much better central bank managements a day as a saver and much stronger go position but we talked earlier. in one of our interviews about russia and china and others working on it just to be legit technology basically a coin not decline but but some token some digital coin with every encryption cetera that they could use to make payments between among themselves so about subpoenas bypass the i.m.f. bypass swift i call your existence car rental ok ripple as they're calling the banks r

their big queen could boost japan's g.d.p. no more analysts say japan's bitcoin craze could help the country's economic growth research analysts at no more instinet said we estimate the wealth effect from unrealized gains on big queen trading by japanese investors since the start of twenty seventeen and estimate a potential boost to consumer spending of between twenty three point two billion yen and ninety six billion yen which is about two hundred six million to eight hundred fifty five million i think that's you know it's something i point three point three percentage points they would add to g.d.p. we were the japanese are some of the biggest four extreme years in the world well this is an amazing story because they were saying real geo political impact of but going on a g. twenty country g seven country japan actually the spending power that comes with the rise of big going in the millions of people who are buying it in japan the multi billion dollars that they've appreciated in value is causing a genuine effect in their e

new economic data from china and it is surprising even for china sara because china says that its g.d.p. grew by six point nine percent in twenty seventeen and that exceeded many experts forecasts the contribution of the world's second biggest economy to global g.d.p. has been on the rise for a decade even if growth has slowed somewhat in recent years and in a moment we'll talk to a china analyst about the asian powerhouses potential but first some facts and figures. china remains one of the world's most powerful economic engines its booming growth over the past decade has easily outpaced recent growth in the u.s. . over the past ten years china's share of global output rose from eleven to eighteen percent other emerging markets are also grabbing larger shares of the global economy the trend is reversed in the u.s. which slipped from eighteen to fifteen percent. china's flourishing export market is one reason for its strong growth. the country's building boom has provided an additional boost another only our chinese earning more money than in the past they're spending it. consumption is

no country in africa has g.d.p. that high it's where career is now and you're seeing presidential change in career because it's reached that income level because the middle class is that strong that it will make a difference you can't make that much of a difference in low income countries there's more urgent priorities for everybody than dealing with corruption but i want to make though of the argument that says that yes there may be more urgent priorities for governments on the national level maybe people. hands are tied but the idea of activating that two thousand and six african union convention on corruption activating that advisory board which was created so that it can sort of sit on top of corruption cases on the national level too far fetched. there's no harm in going head in trying to push against corruption it's not helpful i agree with the african union in their goal and ambition i just think it's unrealistic to assume a dramatic rise in corruption scores i have a better performance against it for most co

g.d.p. so if there's any blockages to that that's going to be hugely significant for the likes of the mexican economy so i think what we're seeing is a greater recognition that perhaps deals that were negotiated twenty thirty years ago perhaps do need to be rewritten to a certain extent and concessions do have to be made in that environment makes it more likely that we will get a deal done that won't be too damaging for the global economy let's talk also if we could about the global capital flows spoken about bringing money back home to the u.s. how is the trumpet ministrations policy so far impacted the global flow of f.b.i. so far there's not that much evidence that it's really been that impactful i mean i guess the most direct method he's been using so far has been tweeting basically threatening or rewarding companies that have or haven't decided to invest in america particularly american based companies of course so those sorts of threats and rewards has influenced policy to some extent

their big queen could boost japan's g.d.p. no more analysts say japan's bitcoin craze could help the country's economic growth research analysts at no more instinet said we estimate the wealth effect from unrealized gains on big queen trading by japanese investors since the start of twenty seventeen and estimate a potential boost to consumer spending of between twenty three point two billion yen and ninety six billion yen which is about two hundred six million to eight hundred fifty five million i think that's you know it's something i point three point three percentage points they would add to g.d.p. we were the japanese are some of the biggest four extreme years in the world well this is an amazing story because they were saying real geo political impact of it going on a g. twenty country g seven country japan actually the spending power that comes with the rise of big going in the millions of people who are buying it in japan the multi billion dollars that they've appreciated in value is causing a genuine effect in their ec

has got a bigger g.d.p. right now than the us and i think you made several attempts to get into the white house to try to change the system from within and you have very detailed proposals that took me a whole evening just to understand. simple ones well i mean they they are very detailed and you know it takes. not only time but i think it takes effort to understand what you're talking about and i think today's politics especially in the united states seems to favor people who offer very simple and sometimes very dramatic solutions does it mean that people like yourself. will always be poised to lose to some demagogues who have politically benefiting by the fiscally unsubstantiated policies i think it's very difficult to deal with a democrat demagogue who demagogues. method of is to find somebody to blame and say well it's the immigrants who are china no matter what the facts or. that are causing our country not to grow in terms of living standard at the radio used to grow and it requires somebody to say wel

is down at about five percent of world g.d.p.rom about sixteen percent now so the long run picture is one of the us lou you know becoming like germany to the world economy and that's driven by you know very interesting the fact is that the un is projecting a population explosion in terms of the world population mostly concentrated in sub-saharan africa in the middle east and this is going to produce a an increase in population of the world by one china in the next twenty years and by three china's over the course of the century so all these factors are going to go through time i agree with you it's not going to be tomorrow but through time people are going to wake up to the fact that the u.s. is in very bad fiscal shape that its economic dominance isn't eval and evidently going to decline just china alone is going to overtake the u.s. has got a bigger g.d.p. right now than the u.s. and i think you made several attempts to get into the white house to try to change the system from within and you have very detailed proposals that to

growth in g.d.p. agriculture grew by two point five percent. and gently the budget deficit is only one point five percent and the year before it was fifty percent. inflation is at two point five percent which is an all time low. which from the coal this indicates that our situation looks very very good. and that direct investment grew by four point four percent. what this means with one point six g.d.p. growth is that direct investment grows above above. the konami growth which means that we have a strong foundation for further growth. so unemployment is also. quite low so we should be quite optimistic but of course. this doesn't mean that we should relax we still have our work cut out for us and we are not happy with our growth rates in this sense you are right of course it is just so i would like to be optimistic. what i'm talking about is that. in any area. i would bring you know sudden benefits and so on and. what i'm asking you is to maybe in which an. additional but unities to make money. what i'm talking about is the opportunities that a

is i mean china a much bigger country than germany but they need always less time to provide those g.d.p. numbers on the other hand they are always exactly how the government wanted them to be that it was already in two thousand and seventeen and sixteen the case now for two thousand and eighteen just mentioned g.d.p. is estimated at a level of six point five percent investors here have no doubt no doubt at all that the chinese government will report exactly those same numbers again except that in this case it was six point nine it was above the government target so my question to you is beijing successfully transit transitioning from global sweatshop to innovation hub that's been its big goal. well one would like to think that that's the case but in fact it's kind of struggling to find a balance between during that transition and this is largely because of the competition between two different economies that china has right now what we need for it on one on the one hand we have the heavy industries and the manufacturing sector the property sector is still dominant and still pulling the

surprisingly resilient despite political uncertainties but there are some dark clouds on the horizon g.d.p. growth took a big hit and twenty sixteen after a failed coup attempt but then roared back a surge in construction and government spending puts turkey's g.d.p. growth on track to exceed six and a half percent for twenty seventeen that number only outpaced by china and india but inflation remains a major problem at the end of last year annual consumer price growth reached almost twelve perth percent and that's had an impact on the turkish currency the lira has been a long on a long steady decline for years worth over fifty u.s. cents five years ago now down to around half of that now the weak currency helps make turkish exports cheap but it reflects a lack of confidence in the economy and it's making it increasingly difficult for many turks to make ends meet. activists suddenly had to get used to serving tea for the last four months he's been working as a temporary waiter in this istanbul cafe. he'd never imagined things could come to this only last summer move that was the proud owner

the chinese government is always doing as well they're always saying well we're estimating that our g.d.p. figures are going to be between let's say six point three and six point nine percent and the result at the end is they're never be low they're either exactly the same or even higher and that's also what's sometimes making investors really questioning if those numbers are accurate because that aside can you gain from all of this if if china is successfully transitioning as it wants to from cheap exports to fight it. well that's exactly what china ones they don't want anymore that this image of made in china is still you know being compared with cheap products but china has a problem there pretty much two economies to production inside of the company one that is really a growing very fast they are producing very good products they want to be number one when it comes for example to produce chips for cell phones or computers on the other hand there is still a booming business when it comes to those duplications that china has been accused for for many years and that the and then again hu

the most high tech places on earth companies like h t c account for around a fifth of the country's g.d.p. by producing computers laptops and smartphones for the entire world but with cheaper chinese rivals breathing down their necks companies in taiwan need to keep their technological edge. in showrooms like this one they're focusing more on software. virtual oregon mentored reality. we're seeing. from many past. experiences if you only knew how were the margin lower and lower after. the the technology to get commodities so only do you know how or is not a very good strategy for the long term established companies are turning to startups to tap new markets this firm develops artificial intelligence for surveillance cameras the more it software sees the more it learns it can differentiate between vehicles and traffic that's important for urban planners founder sean go on received ten million dollars from investors to develop the software the big tech names are also willing to pay for the latest know how. this is the power of the sauce and come on say hey we can go software and we know how

that is later transmitted to the overall national g.d.p. now the darker regions mining accounts for as much as forty percent of the market and those provinces and specifically the large portion that is inner mongolia. visuals they're admitted to over inflating their twenty six thousand mining numbers to look more favorable you can probably assume then that the same is true for their twenty fifteen numbers to the g.d.p. reported versus reality shows a steep spike up nearly twenty five percent from the year before that sort of swing is just not realistic but across the country coal remains steady almost kind of flat brant crude and steel looked almost inextricably tied to one another both taking dips in twenty fifteen and twenty sixteen as well both climbing back up in seventeen but now still moving north now an indicator of more building happening in the country and then over the province of the nearing there are a major problem in why we can't trust the economic data coming from china talk about fake news has admitted to faking data for fiv

and in the metropolitan area did account for almost twenty two percent of the total national g.d.p. and mexico's now a top global export of cars and flat screen t.v.'s among other products xterra boasting a firm hold and a global economy through trade and more reporting for boom bust part thank you david thanks for that report very interesting next we are going to go to london to now stasia church in a who gives us a report on the u.k. and london and u.k. and europe rather. compared with a year ago the unemployment rate in member states fell over all except for finland where it is said to have stayed the same the rate still remain high especially if we compare them to what the numbers were head of the two thousand and eight collapse and recession that followed the largest recent drops in numbers were recorded in cyprus and greece now if we take a look at the highest and lowest unemployment levels among even member states the top five highest levels were recorded in greece and twenty point six percent spain at sixteen point seven percent italy at eleven point one ten point five and c

it has been justified on the growth on the g.d.p. front. there are only six countries in the world that have negative or in recession territory here, and we see g.d.p. for the 10th year in a row growing with 3.5% or 3.6% expected g.d.p. growth here. and also on the earnings and equity side. on the fixed income side, you have to watch a little bit. obviously we have seen two 10--year treasury rates returning. they have gone from 80 basis points to 50 basis points. what is more important is five-year real rates. they have come up quite a bit as well. but it is not varying yet. we have fundamental data on the economic front being good. corporate data is pretty good. you just have to watch the fixed income space, and you have to make some turning on he credit space here because credit has probably peaked as interesting levels. mark: you see under the surface there is high dispersion. how do we play that given that we have been putting bets on certain regions? when it comes to strategy, how does that change the way we bet on these markets? >> i

and in the metropolitan area did account for almost twenty two percent of the total national g.d.p. and mexico's now a top global export of cars and flat screen t.v.'s among other products xterra boasting a firm hold and a global economy through trade and more reporting for boom bust part thank you david thanks for that report very interesting next we are going to go to london to now stasia church and who gives us a report on the u.k. and london and u.k. and europe rather. compared with a year ago the unemployment rate in member states fell over all except for finland where it is said to have stayed the same the rate still remain high especially if we compare them to what the numbers were head of the two thousand and eight collapse and recession that followed the largest recent drops in numbers were recorded in cyprus and greece now if we take a look at the highest and lowest unemployment levels among even member states the top five highest levels were recorded in greece and twenty point six percent spain at sixteen point seven percent italy at eleven point one ten point five and cy

you talk about the dow has gained forty percent in a year creating trillions of dollars of wealth g.d.p. growth by three percent the past two quarters looking at four going ahead unemployment at four percent black unemployment at the lowest recorded level manufacturing jobs returning to the united states companies raising their minimum starting wage and passing out bonuses and putting money into capital investments isis been pushed into the core sensually robbed of all territory it wants to add saudi arabia coming to the table trying to actually improve the middle east the us becoming energy independent those are the things i would talk about if i were president giving the state of the union because they are all good thing but what don't you want i'm not going to he's not going to get that credit in the media he's going to have to say it so don't and don't say what if you're devising the president ok and well you know don't you don't say russia. just don't good point bryan. speechwriters paul hit on all the do's i mean you're going to go to go to your strengths go to the economy go and

you know is g.d.p. the right way to look at welfare and. there i would argue you know certainly no but it's probably better than all the other ways that have been suggested but it clearly it clearly leaves out a lot and to the extent we can improve our measurement of what the economy produces g.d.p. certainly does leave out a lot in terms of inclusiveness in terms of that wealth filtering down we saw the office for oxfam report today showing the every second day a new billionaire filtered into the global economy last year and eighty two percent of the wealth generated last year remains in the hands of the one percent many of whom probably here in davos. yeah and i'm sure we're going to be talking about that one percent all through the week i have to ask you since we got there beautiful scenery behind you there i know it's cold but there has been lots of snow as a matter of fact if i'm not mistaken we have proof on video maybe we can show that instead of letting you watch my face the whole time there we go proof that you and our esteemed col

know that we have real difficulties in our country numbers are pretty growing in a good direction so g.d.p. is growing the black market and the corruption that we are happy with what we have in tunisia is one of the protease of the government so i think we are in the right direction we need a real support from our partners because it's true that sometimes we don't feel this support our democracy is too young we need a real support to have a successful democracy in tunisia if we have this was we're going to have more possibility more jobs for us and more more more investment for the internal reasons that are this it weighs in the situation in those internal reasons marginalized regions is getting better but it is not enough as we as we should as we show as we should judge but we're out of time many thanks indeed to all of you something else again nicholas know muhammadiyah me as a waste thank you for watching don't forget you can see the program at any time just by visiting the website i was here a dot com is where you'll find it for further discussion one of join us on the facebook fate pa

g.d.p. they have increased wages by up to thirty percent in the last five years they have rainfalls the social protection system so this doesn't create a tall i mean unemployment or economic. cetera et cetera on the contrary it has created an incredibly cool is eve and sustainable growth model in the country they became the most competitive country demotes to know that if come to eat the most technologically and digital country in the european union they created an enormous number of jobs quality jobs and at the same time they have integrated two hundred fifty thousand migrants they have the highest ratio between migrants and not eve citizens in the ward i mean of course sweden is well it's a very small country i mean comparably to other countries i mean eight to ten million not eve city since amy and they have integrated not only welcome because you know it's not only a matter of welcoming people and putting them in attempts i mean seen in several countries i mean the problem is that first

think gold to g.d.p. in russia is double the united which is a source of strength say china is not there yet because their economy is much larger but they're acquiring gold why don't they are going to list a lot of trade failing there was you know hand-wringing about all those roubles dying is crashing but that they're out of a good. well they've allowed the river to trade pretty freely but they are doing it with a good central banker this is in the ninety's in the yeltsin when you know the ruble collapse they're actually much better central bank managements a day as a saver and much stronger go position but we talked earlier. in one of our interviews about russia and china and others working on it just to be legit technology basically a coin not decline but but some token some digital coin with every encryption cetera that they could use to make payments between among themselves so about subpoenas bypass the i.m.f. bypass the switch i call it already exist our ripple ok ripple as they're calling the bank

of london therefore britain's national service already funded a whole of the levels percentage of g.d.p. that the united states is is there in germany and france it has to be cut further critics of course say that it's a deliberate attempt to force people to go private and kill off the n.h.s. where still you have you witnessed the. people around you see new doctors and so on saying maybe you should go private but you know i don't think it's just saying it out. some people in the n.h.s. who are completely ground down but this government's attempt to dismantle our service that i don't necessarily feel like there's any other option however as a child genius and as a health campaigner i feel that we've got a responsibility to give some leadership to people inside actually to noble the n.h.s. is the single greatest achievement of british working people collectively taking action and fighting for something and if we are prepared to let that go we would open up a door to a system not what they have in america now the reason i spend so much more as a percentage of g.d.p. in the united states an

now the reason i spend so much more as a percentage of g.d.p. in the united states and waiter in the u.k. is because the market is fundamentally an inefficient system the delivery of health care we've witnessed this just over the last couple of days with the collapse of korea we want to a good thing here and we need to fight not just to defend what we've got but actually to tight back into public ownership the karelian contract the g four s. contrast contrast the people that are running on didn't service up and down the country are the people who are running community services furch inc had. built i fully into quite his national health and social care service now in the prices of cuts and privatization but on the prices of of democratic public ownership so that we can give the care that we're trying to stop along to be able to expect a bigger inspirational very very good and i think the demonstration of that effect way it's got the upper to potential to be a real lightning rod for a lot of the anger that is out there we have got people dying inc

door to a system like what i have in america now the reason i spend so much more as a percentage of g.d.p. in the united states and we do in the u.k. is because the market is fundamentally an inefficient system the delivery of health care we've witnessed this just over the last couple of days with the collapse of career we want a good thing here and we need to fight not just to defend what we've got but actually to take back into public ownership the karelian contract the g four s. contrast contrast the people who are running ambulance service up and down the country and the people who are running community services furch ing care and build i fully integrate his national health and social care service now on the basis of cuts and privatization but on the basis of democratic public ownership so that we can give the care that we're trying for so long to be able to do the big. bird i think the demonstration of fair play it's got the upper to potential to be a real lightning rod for a lot of the anger that is out there we have got people dying incognito's on for days implying without seeing a