gary kaltbaum, and james freeman, from "the wall street journal." gary and james are both fox news contributors. everything is somehow china related even when we get to this hour to the apple results we'll talk about what they said about china. if you look at it, gary, from the market's perspective, the slowdown in china, talks beginning, even if they get some sort of a deal in the next month, that enough to stop the bleeding in terms of an economic slowdown in china or no? >> i think there is bigger structural problems in china. they have massive apartments of debt. there is a reason why in the last week they announced in one day 83 billion-dollar injection into the banking system. so i don't know if this would change the playing field but easing of this tariff deal would help all parties. but now we have this investigation. i love that the fbi yesterday, chrisway said after years of investigative work, all of sudden they come out with charges, that day. connell: that day. >> kind of funny they used leverage like that at that point in time. connell:

liz peek, gary kaltbaum.james freeman, what i wonder is, i have compassion for anyone having a hard time paying their bills, is there legitimate question how many people we need working in washington? we're in new york. i'm not in d.c. i don't know if everything there has ground to a halt, how much pain there is, do you hear a lot of people from the journal suffering as a result of government workers not being in their place? we hear about the airports. >> right. >> but the rest of it, what are your thoughts? >> yeah. we don't want anyone to be denied an earned paycheck, but i this shutdown, like some other shutdowns raised legitimate questions about the size of the federal workforce. you're talking 380,000 people, nearly half the staff at affected agencies, roughly 25% of the government that has been shuttered are deemed by the government nonessential to perform the basic functions of protecting public health, safety, threats to life and property. and i don't know why taxpayers shouldn't be able to ask that

tell your doctor if you have an infection, symptoms, gary kaltbaum - my family and i did a fundraiserk in honor of my dad, who was alzheimer's. i decided to make shirts for the walk with custom ink, and they just came out perfect. - [announcer] check out our huge selection of custom apparel for every occasion. you'll even get free shipping. get started today at customink.com. david: calling the current $7.25 federal minimum wage a starvation wage, senator sanders is proposing more than doubling that to a nationwide $15 an hour as the 2020 field for president starts to take shape does the party move further to the left? . >> yes. a man who is lived off of taxpayer dollars all his life telling businesses what they must pay but there are repercussions because somebody may only get hired at ten dollars an hour may not get hired at $15 an hour. on top of that businesses cannot afford it so guess what they do? less headcount in the restaurant robotics and technology. be careful what you wish for because less people working cannot be paying the taxes that you want. >> this is discrimination

, gary kaltbaum.powell had to say the market seemed to love. up 600 points. >> the key is balance sheet comment, something we've been talking about since the last fed meeting the rate hike issue is not nearly as important because of the state of credit markets. we have so much reflation that has taken place in the corporate economy, there is so much new leverage is on, i don't think excessive but credit conditions deteriorated to some degree. there is less credit quality out there, dissing traction from the liquidity in the economy could become problematic. for them to talk down that issue on balance sheet reduction is a big deal because the market wants to belief dollar liquidity will be there for the economy to do what it otherwise organically doing. ashley: gary, your thoughts? you have been very bearish. the markets are behaving exactly as you expected but jay powell putting out some calming words this morning? >> well, jay powell basically said we hear the stock market. in 2012 jay powell was say

. >> chad, this is gary kaltbaum. last time we spoke was a couple of days before the first pay check was not given out. now we're in a week where a second paycheck isn't given out. so it feels like the needle is even farther away as we get to the second and there's a real world americans that have to maybe drive an uber, take a pay day loan out, go to pawn shops, these are good americans that are being affected. is any movement whatsoever going on? >> no that's what's remarkable about this. the idea they had this meeting last week where vice president pence and jared kushner came to see mitch mcconnell and there was talk back and forth about trying to debut this bill next week and have the president talk on saturday but even if they were to pass something today they're not in session today because of the martin luther king holiday, they have to start to be able to process those pay checks tomorrow to get the money out the door come friday. even if you were to pass something today, to be able to make that deadline tomo

joining me today, liz peake, zachary carabel, jonathan hoenig and gary kaltbaum. lifelong democrat and florida starbucks ceo howard schultz comes out swinging against one of kamala harris's biggest plans. >> i'm running to declare once and for all that health care is a fundamental right and we will deliver that right with medicare for all. >> i am seriously thinking of running for president. i will run as a centrist independent, outside of the two-party system. every american deserves the right to have access to quality health care but what the democrats are proposing is something that is as false as the wall, and that is free health care for all, which the country cannot afford. david: will voters steer closer to the left with kamala harris or more to the center with howard schultz when it comes to things like health care for all? what do you think? >> well, i think howard schultz kind of threw some rain on the democrat parade and frankly, called out republicans as well for not being fiscally prudent. no one is talking about our $20 trillion debt. republicans hav

ashley: well let's bring in gary kaltbaum, a fox news contributor on the phone to comment on this. ave problems in china, gary, for apple, a strong dollar that christina talked about and maybe the upgrades to the model is just not cutting it with the consumer out there. not only in china but the emerging markets and therefore, iphone revenue is a big reason for this shortfall. your thoughts? >> yeah, and revenues are going to be down year-over-year that hasn't happened very often, and this is also happening in a very fragile market to boot. when you i think apple right now if it trades where it is in the morning is going to lose about $55 billion of market cap, it's in the dow it's going to affect the dow it's pretty much the biggest stock in the nasdac 100 going to affect that and nasdac 100 futures are getting wacked and it's also one of these growth beta-type names so all of the beta stocks are getting hit whether they have to do with apple or not. just keep in mind the suppliers have been cutting their numbers for three months now. ashley: right. >> i'm not so sure this was unex

david nelson, jeff saut and gary kaltbaum. let me start with guys on set. jeff, your initial reaction, that is interesting, people at home is trying to understand, the federal reserve is saying our economy is not strong anymore but it's solid and the stock market goes up on that. is there a disconnect there? >> i don't think so. i think earnings are coming in just fine. i do think the economy has slowed a little bit, but as they put, solid economy. i can tell you i go out do presentations for 3 or 400 financial vice source and their clients, individual investor is not just cautious, they're scared to death. that is not the way bull markets end. charles: david? >> it is pretty clear that they got the memo and to danielle's point. charles: who's memo? the market's memo, trump's memo? >> last time we had a meeting like this, within 24 hours they were rolling out fed spokespeople on networks to literally walk back. this is 180-degree turn. they figured out what happened last year was clearly a policy mistake on several levels. on the balance sheet, if they walk

want to bring in to discuss this market, melissa and gary kaltbaum. gary, let me start with you. have been spot-on about the markets and vulnerability of the markets for awhile now. what's your assessment, because post-christmas, i'm seeing session after session where this market exhibited a lot of resolve, where we made amazing reversals to the upside. even yesterday's session. it might have happened today but the reaction to the ism manufacturing report sort of shattered everything. what's the true message here, in your mind? >> look, this is a bear market playbook that just continues to play out that we wrote up about four months ago, as well as the economic playbook that the markets were seeing slowdowns and now we are just hearing about serious slowdowns, not just across the globe but here. so i think it continues. i think all that happened in the last five or six days, we dropped 4268 dow points and you will rally up some, you will drive people crazy, but the apple thing hit the wall and may i just add one more thing. you mentioned it earlier. this dude hassett might as wel

liz peek, foxnews.com columnist, gary kaltbaum, kaltbaum capital management, both fox news contributors. there was a lot of crosscurrents, most of it negative. what was the biggest take away, what was the most important nugget? >> we're focused on china and the negotiations. every time there is positive news about china the market goes up and when we hit a speed bump it goes down. i think there is concern the increasingly bad news on the chinese economy coming out is leading the white house to say they can really press their advantage. i think it is optimistic we'll just settle for increase in imports in china which they already committed to. there is lot of talk about trillion dollars over next three years. but i think the big stumbling blocks continue to be intellectual property, how china will resolve those issues i don't know and i think some of it will have to do with this made in china 2025 program. that keeps going back and forth too. there is just a lot of uncertainty about it. melissa: yeah, gary, do you agree with that? >> well, look, the biggest problem we have right now is t

bring in today's market panel, gary kaltbaum, scott martin, kingsview asset management chief investment officer. they're both fox news contributors. gary the whole world is focused on the shutdown. here we're talking china trade deal. which do you think matters more to the market up three days in a row? >> oh i think shutdown is one out of 100. i think the trade deal is much, much more important. a deal will get done i'm sure in the next 30 or 60 days. >> really? >> oh, yeah, china will continue to cheat and lie and steal going forward. they will make like they're not. nobody will say anything. both parties will claim like everything is a okay. melissa: do you think they will do less cheating and lying? >> maybe they don't cheat from the person next to them or the person in the back of the classroom. that is how i got away with it. oops. gary is absolutely right. this is about optics. we're talking for three days. we're getting along. we'll sneak a meeting with president xi in davos. all the rumors. we've been fooled before, kids. i don't think it is any different. china's history, they

to a trade deal, here's the golden rule according to investor and contributor to fox business, gary kaltbaum. number one, it's not the news or the headlines, it's how markets react to the news. how should our investors, how should you guys, viewers, how should you react to the headlines? especially when immediately we ask our traders, the white house comes out and denies it as they did yesterday, for example, tim anderson, guide our viewers right now, because some of this is being shot down immediately by one side or another. >> yes, but i believe the original headline was that it was something that we're talking about. i'm sure they talk about a lot of things, especially if the president goes into a meeting and says give me all your options. they can be talking about 10 or 15 different scenarios. i think all investors should just proceed with caution as soon as they see headlines and try to determine where those headlines are coming from, and also realize that all of the algorithms that are in the market have headline reading systems in them. they are going to react much faster than you or

our market watchers today, shah ghailani, and jim awad and kaltbaum capital management president gary kaltbaum, you're remote. i will start with you. i have the coo kids in here. >> i'm not cool? hey. charles: let's see what your answer is. hey, honestly you've been critical of the fed. today we heard four fed officials all over the place, even with this release, the market doesn't seem like it is sure what the fed is going to do? what are your whole thoughts of what the drama plays out? >> i'm sure what the fed will do, charles. replace the word economy with the word market every time you discuss the fed now. i was the biggest bear on the market until friday. i'm live on tv, i hear jay powell mentioning the markets and basically they're backstopping them. i had to change my stance for that. they're watching markets. they're not watching the economy. credit was tanking. markets were tanking. they could not afford to see that continue. thus you're seeing all of sudden heroes of the saver that were raising rates three and four times, we're going to sit back and watch. even had somebody come out

gary kaltbaum is with us. are you still bullish, gary?u something that happened today gets me feeling real darn good and that is the semiconductors. i have been following the semiconductors and i've been studying them for years. they have been a leadership group in the market. when they're kicking butt to the upside market usually will be in good stead. they led the markets to the downside. today being up five to 6% what is really not great earnings tells me the big money crowd thinks that the bottom of the cycle is in and that is pretty darn good news as we head forward. i still think we'll be choppy in here but the fact that the semiconductors are getting some juice on top of the financials recently got my fingers crossed this will continue. stuart: why is semiconductors, the texas instruments of this world, on the screen now, why are they some kind of a bellwether for the overall market? why? >> first off, they have actually just led the markets up and down for the last few decades. that is number one. but basically they're in everythi

for more about that, and what 2019 could bring, maybe better news, let's bring in gary kaltbaum.ew year. >> happy new year to you, heather. >> heather: will it be a happy new year for stocks? what is doing to happen in 2019? >> well, hopefully better than the fourth quarter that -- where the market was just destroyed. i think the biggest problem is the market has been telegraphing slower growth, not only here but really worse around the globe. markets topped out at the beginning of the year and i think a bunch of places in europe are in recession. japan may be in recession. china is slowing down. we're not immune to that. when that happens, the estimates for earnings and growth comes down. our estimates for gdp come down and markets are definitely reflecting that. i think there's going to be some more pain in the first couple quarters. but i will give you the good news. 100% of the time bear markets, we end up with a bull market. we go to all-time highs. we have to be patient. >> heather: people hear about it but at the same time, we have records. people shopping for holidays, ch

joining me today, liz peake, zachary carabel, jonathan hoenig and gary kaltbaum.tarbucks ceo howard schultz comes out swinging

want to bring in gary kaltbaum. he is on the telephone with us. the market. reaction not only apple/china news, which it felt like it was digesting that not too badly, down 300 points but the bottom fell out on the ism manufacturing report which still shows expansion. in fact we would have killed for 54.1% a few years ago but it did miss wall street's consensus. >> you know we're in trouble when you say 300 down points is not so bad. look, i just think what we are seeing is the culmination of why markets topped out a while back. they were telegraphing that all economic data points, statistics and numbers were going to surprise to the downside. interesting enough, we got the adp report today, and i'm thinking to myself, wow, the 10-year yield has got to spike to the upside. instead the 10-year yield is crashing, down a whole point, to 2.56 as i speak. i really do think the market is screaming still that major slowdowns around the globe, some areas are going to be in recession. if not worse. and now you are seeing guidance for earnings coming down a

. >>> gary kaltbaum is here. kaltbaum capital management president.es morgan's report tell us about the financial sector and the economy? >> i look at the weight of all the evidence and most of the other financials came in pretty darn decently and more importantly reactions have been good. jpmorgan numbers missed and so was pnc. we'll see what happens the next couple days. i think financials are fine. interest rates are stable. the economy at least here is still pretty darn good. i'm not worried about morgan stanley. really not at all. stuart: tell me about netflix. they report profits after the bell today. would you take a flyer, get out there and buy it today before the profit report? >> heck no. look, you know, i am not carnac the magnificent. i have no idea what they will report, more importantly what the reaction is. and the stock is already up pretty darn big since the recent low and we could get good news and sell off because of how strong the move is. i have one rule. i don't buy anything within three or four-days of earnings. i'm not smart en

turn to when a lot of people ask me about the market and you are my body gary kaltbaum i would say timeur friend. over a long period of time. a lot of people with the same amount of money into the market, they will be rewarded over time. if you were to get whipsawed by these thousand point swings within a day in and out come you're naturally going to be concerned. but if you step back from that, less of a concern. where are you on this? >> 100%. i mass regularly by people, what should i do now? my first question is are you a traitor. 99% of the time they say no. then i say the answer is nothing. even if i knew that tomorrow we would have a huge bear market, i wouldn't know where to get back in. so i tell people sell now and then when the wi-fi. how the heck do i know. you're an investor. stay in it. is amazon going to be worth more 10 years from now than it is or whatever the replacement of amazon. of course it is. that's the way the economy goes. that's why you have to stay long term. if you need the money coming your son or daughter is going to enter college tomorrow and you need what

dr barton and gary kaltbaum. gerri willis is with us as well. gerri, the notion if we were open for trading today, the market would sell off on fears we get a trade deal from china, the chinese are entering a slowdown probably much worse than they're letting on, what do you think? >> i think it may well be much worse than they're letting on. it may well be 1%. these numbers are very difficult to get your arms around. and why it is important for our market and traders on the floor of the new york stock exchange tell me every day. if you read the trade papers, it is just apple that relies on china for a lot of its sales and a lot of its earnings. not so. whole raft of u.s. companies. big industrials like boeing, 3m be. neil: mike con, nvidia, amd. sanderson farms, archer daniels midland. it will all be negative news for them. it is about global growth. we have so many companies here in the u.s. of a who rely on a strong china market. neil: you know, gary, there are a lot of undercurrents that rattle some foles but this is best year to start after

stuart: i will stay on the socialism theme and bring in gary kaltbaum. comments about the market. he is fired up about socialism. i will give you free rein. go for it, gary. >> as i always said these socialists are people never created a dime of wealth or a job and they spend their days demonizing the people that have created all the wealth and all the jobs and they sit there and tell people, your lot in life is where it is because you're being screwed by all these people. and amazingly, a lot of people follow them. for me it is one big gigantic con job. they have never run any businesses, and you just been talking about health care. to think somebody never been in the business, knows nothing about it, wants to take 150 to 200 million people off of private insurance, to be run by a government which by the way is running $22 trillion of deficits and every year trillion dollar deficits, it is beyond reason as far as i'm concerned and it is getting tiresome. i'm going to be the loudest voice in the room as we move forward because they're getting louder. stu

let's go to senior vice president top management gary kaltbaum.you think would happen if we had another shot down? >> i must tell you that another 10% i was amazed to route that will shut down the markets just kept going and going. one of the things that the psychology of government not working what do the trick. i think what happened was you dropped 5200 dow points i would rally back up. it was starting to hear some inductors caterpillar number going forward, possible 1.2 billion in sales is not good news. we get a lot more a lot more of that as we move forward the next few weeks that will trump everything. neil: when you make of all of this yourself? >> well, i would agree. the market certainly hasn't been bothered by the government shutdown up until today. under any number of factors most notably with these companies are saying about china. the bigger concern is the other policymakers out of the way. everyone is concerned about policy mistakes. we have jerome powell, pelosi and the president there. a lot of the problems are uncertainties being

we should check in with gary kaltbaum, kaltbaum capital management president.'t want to talk to but the border wall, declaration of emergency. i want to talk to but the stock market because you have now turned a little bit more bullish. for a long time you've been against buying any stocks. get rid of them you were saying. now you have changed. why? >> actually, it was live on air with ashley last friday when jay powell mentioned that he was basically watching markets now. and i've been watching the fed for 10 years and every time the fed got behind markets it was folly to be bearish. after 5,000 dow points being bearish, being stretched and extended and the whole world being bearish i thought it was time to just change the stance. i'm not wildly bullish. i don't think we have a big bull market coming but i definitely think there is opportunity now but you've got to wait for earnings. as you see today, macy's, l brands, american airlines a couple of other retailers are getting smacked because of lowering guidance. i'm sitting back being very patient here, looki

david: i think about gary kaltbaum, for example, was very bearish, and look, you can't ignore the technical. i like the emotional realities, too, or the fact, the opposite of that, the fact that the market stays out of all the emotional panic because of what's going on inside the beltway, is the president going to be impeached, what's happening with the shutdown. the market just doesn't care. the market is focused clearly on the numbers and the numbers coming in are looking good. one thing they do care about, of course, is china and the talk or discussions that are going between the united states and china also looks good. so don't fight the market. don't fight the tape, right? charles: well, business also, let's just -- i want to share from the ceo of csx, one of the largest rail companies in this country. they understand what's going on better than anyone else because we guess a lot. we talk about what's possibly happened, they talk about what happened. over the last couple months, everybody was talking about trade, tariffs, interest rates, what's going on with brexit, government turbulen

jason rotman, managing partner, lido isle advisors and president of kaltbaum capital management, garyy, you got bullish and dragged you in like al pacino from "the godfather," the fed brought you back in. are you happy with the markets doing or can that continue? >> fateful day, january 4th, as soon as powell mentioned markets i knew. not just that, europe, japan, telling people for months they would stop printing by the way, china added $83 billion to the banking system overnight that is fueling a lot of this. i have to tell you, i have studied 100 years of history. i have never seen a bear market if financials are leading and are strong. not just the goldmans, but you add jpmorgan, and pnc bank coming with bad numbers. both opened down and both being bought up. under my number one rule, not the news, how things react to the news, so far so good but we're in the meat of resistance. i think we'll get a little bit choppy here,far so good. i've seen no institutional selling whatsoever just yet. charles: jason, for me, 24,450 on dow could be magical number, 2600 folks on s&p, beginning o