elliott and gary kaminski on the phone as well. let's talk, elliott, about the derivative portfolio. $52 trillion. they want to move a big chunk of that to the bank. that would, of course, mitigate some of the issues surrounding a possible downgrade. how serious is this downgrade, in your view? >> i don't think it's that serious. i think the industry is aware of what is going on. everybody understands the pressure it's coming under. i don't think it's that big of a deal. >> and, gary, the facebook story front and center, investigations going on, inquiries into who knew what, when, and of course we've talked about the speculation that some clients knew that the mobility part of the story was in jeopardy. what's your take in terms of how serious these inquiries will ultimately be and the cost to morgan will be. >> this is common places in terms of an ipo. i don't think there will be any regulatory follow through in terms of the disclosure because that's the name of the game. i've talked about the positive aspects, maria. the negative

david faber, gary kaminsky and melissa lee still standing there on duty. lis melissa, this has been an extraordinary debut. >> you know, i think we might be having problems with her ifb. gary, let me go to you, if i could. we're seeing the words fizzle, words underperform being reported in stories about facebook. how much of that has to do with the trading glitches that started at the moment? david faber recording earlier that traders were backing away a little bit when they couldn't get this thing open. >> i should let you know that the trading glitch in terms of to this minute people knowing what they do have, what don't have in terms of position, they're not over. they're still existing. i just got an e-mail two minutes ago. people still do not know if they participated in this name what they're long. make that point right now. sue, to me the biggest story about facebook today and i said it right at the top of the 11:00 a.m. hour is very simple. the allocations people got were historic. retail got what they wanted in most cases. and institutions that put

gary kaminsky, let's talk a bit about what went on today. speculation on the street about morgan stanley, cutting estimates during the road show for facebook. facebook dropping way below issued price closing at $31 a share today. what's your take on all of this? >> let's try to summarize facebook, maria, and by the way, now trading below $31 i think if we look at the aftermarkets -- >> $30.95. absolutely. >> and litigation just now, not to be unexpected, against the nasdaq. here's the three things that need to happen right now, m.b. it's very simple. this is an unorthodox transaction. i'm going to say it like it is. morgan stanley needs to put out a press release tonight or tomorrow morning and they need to tell the investing world what their position is in this security. they need to let people know how much stock they bought to try to stabilize this deal. if, in fact, they did. the guessing of what morgan stanley is trying to do as a syndicate, normally that's fine to keep people in the dark, no longer fine. facebook, facebook needs to put

let's bring in cnbc's gary kaminsky here. you made the point earlier that there are shareholders who bought at the open, but they wanted to sell by the close. it looks like that's what we saw materialize today. >> yeah, hey, maria. i think around 2:15 when i was last on air, we made the point that a lot of people were getting execution. they were find ought in the time period what they had actually bought in the 11:30 to 12:00 period and there was tremendous fear on how much capital they were going to have to put up if sellers came in the last hour. i sort of suggested you probably would see a lot of acceleration at 3:00 and that's happened. >> so what's your take in terms of how this trades next week? >> well, this is the sort of known/unknown. retail got more stock in this transaction than i can recall in my entire career. people that put in for 5,000 shares, they got 5,000 shares. >> right. >> those who put in for 300,000 share, got 300,000 shares. the question is how many people -- the answer to that question you have to

. >> and gary kaminsky pointed this out to me, painting the tape, interesting how much times jim gorman mentioned the price action. makes you wonder who the block action was. >> one hour before the close and two hours before maria interviewed mr. gorman. scott kesler's price target is $27 in his new note. >>> "hunger games" was a roaring success but lionsgate earnings ceo will join us to tell us what lies ahead so stay tuned. >>> shares of lionsgate bouncing back after dropping more than 6.5% on an unexpected quarterly loss. fiscal quarter revenue jumped 71% helped by "the hunger games." here now to break down the numbers and the company's strategy ahead is michael burns, vice chairman of lionsgate. michael, always great to see you. all of the marketing costs for "hunger games" were in the fiscal fourth quarters which is why you had the unexpected loss. do we have audio on him? >> i can't hear him. >> okay. we're going to try to fix the audio problem, and in the meantime, why don't we talk about our next trade because we do have a lot to ask michael. so goes europe, so goes stock. corre

weigh in right now, s&p capital iq, david pearl from investme investment partners and our own gary kaminskyme kick this off with you. let's talk about implications as a result of jp morgan's loss. the financials have been losing ground, consistently. to you think it's over or more to come? >> i think the financials are not going to be leading us back in recovery the way they normally do. their business model has been permanently impaired by new regulation. the jp morgan incident is going to make regulation worse. they're going to be like the utilities they were before glass steagall, going to make less money because they have more capital, less leverage. they can't charge consumers as much. trading is going to be very, very difficult for u.s. banks. it's jamie dimon's biggest issue. this is not a good environment for them. >> i know all that. we all know all that. the bottom line is, is the decline in market value appropriate? $30 billion in market value loss since a week and a half ago, last thursday when jp morgan made the announcement. is that the kind of declines we should expect going

gary kaminsky of our staff was pointing out that he heard that there were a number of insiders that wouldant to be holding the stock by the end of the trading day and they would be getting their orders in during their final hour. that seems to be playing out right now. as you can see, it has been falling during this hour of trade and now back to $38.10 and moving lower right now. keep a close eye on this as we head to the closing bell. >>> meantime, gold rallied to the new one-week high on increasing speculation that the fed could announce a new round of easing. we have that story right now. sharon? >> that's been a tremendous move this week in the gold price, bill. we're looking at a $70 move higher in the last three days or so. we're looking at gold prices that came very close to $1,600 an ounce, that's the target for next week that traders are looking at. they're saying that with the problems that we're seeing in greece, in spain, there are actual facts out there that that they're pointing to are that shows it's well founded. so that is the hope, that is the perception and that is what

gary kaminsky, let's get to you because i believe you have some new information. what have you found? >> mandy, we are right at these levels again. in the 11:00 hour after the opening of the stock there was a significant amount of sell orders that came in. i've spoken to some of the same people that sort of brought that to our attention. the anticipation right now is that the stock -- and we're just talking about today, the stock is now in the hands of a number of people who will probably not want to hold it overnight. it's going to be very important to watch what happens right at 3:00. if you look at that chart you have up there, it was right at that time when it traded around $38 that david faber came onset and confirmed there was $1 billion at that level with a syndicate bid right at that level. so i think we're at the pivotal time between now and little after 2:00 or 3:00, mandy, because there are a number of orders anticipate today start hitting the market in this name specifically around 3:00 today. >> buy or sell orders? do we know. melissa's point so many

i go with gary kaminski, buyer beware. i don't read into the upgrade, but yesterday 146 million shares traded. almost feels like one of those guy adami washout kind of days where maybe it was washed out. today we're barely trading underneath 30 million shares so far, far below yesterday. maybe there's some upside. if there's enough upside, we get a nice push towards 19 or 20, those options really should perform. >> the upgrade at bernstein, even the analyst doesn't seem to have 100% conviction, if you will, behind the call. yes, it's an upgrade. yes, the stock has declined. when he's using words like we acknowledge risk to the downside, not for the faint of heart, that really underscores the risk that still is in this stock. whether it's headline risk, mcclendon risk, however you want to play it, guy. >> i think there's tremendous risk here. you saw -- the whole -- the natural gas fund that closed down. mr. arnold -- i don't think it's coincidence that it closed yesterday. that's just me. i have no idea. i think everything

. >>> simon, coming up next, a very tough assignment for any cnbc reporter, but we sent gary kaminsky accepted the assignment and he has followed the money all the way to the vegas strip. see what the big money guys are saying when "power lunch" comes right back. ght back. today is gonna be an important day for us. you ready? we wanna be our brother's keeper. what's number two we wanna do? bring it up to 90 decatherms. how bout ya, joe? let's go ahead and bring it online. attention on site, attention on site. now starting unit nine. some of the world's cleanest gas turbines are now powering some of america's biggest cities. siemens. answers. >>> welcome >>> welcome back to "power lunch." brian shactman here at the markets desk. take a look at an intraday chart of salesforce.com. it is down more than 7%. a lot of that weakness has to do with the weakness in cisco. but there is some analyst defense coming. raymond james says buy the dips here. ubs has come to the defense of the name, but it's obviously taking a hit. the volume on this stock, sue, triple the average daily volume already

gary kaminsky.xample of how german companies have benefited. and that's why it was interesting when i was doing my weekend reading, there was some let's just call it a thesis out there that part of what you have, let's take a look at the german ten year bund, there was a number of people that were participating in the transaction in the sense they were selling two year at a sooe 0% yield. so you know if it's in dollar ti terms you'll get back the money. why do it. pure speculation. simon just told me ludicrous. but important to understand that some of the larger hedge funds are doing this strategy trade in a sense of they think of it as an open call option. and here's the thesis. if in fact this summer we get the departure of the greek currency, go back to the drachma, there's the idea that all the euro currencies go back to their own country currencies. so what is a good way to buy the deutsche mark on a when issued basis. buy the two year payable in deutsche marks at the time of maturity and you g

gary kaminsky -- >> it's a girdle for men. >> it is not a girdle to men. >> that makes sense.n the next hour, don't wait until tomorrow's jobs report for the employment story. we'll have challengers monthly layoffs, first hoe if you went to sleep before midnight, you missed an exciting end to the rangers/capitals game. new york winning in triple overtime. rangers take a 2-1 lead in their eastern conference semifinals series game. four is on saturday in d.c. >>> tomorrow becky is live in omaha. preparing for berkshire hathaway's annual woodstock for capitalists. this weekend, warren buffett faces share holders and then monday he'll face "squawk box" live for three hours starting at 6:00 eastern. zap technology. arrival. with hertz gold plus rewards, you skip the counters, the lines, and the paperwork. zap. it's our fastest and easiest way to get you into your car. it's just another way you'll be traveling at the speed of hertz.  zap technology. departure. hertz gold plus rewards also offers ereturn-- our fastest way to return your car. just note your mileage a

we'll check in with gary kaminsky, who i don't know, are you ready to talk about europe a lot more thisl reading some of the lehman stuff. i've got to read you another one later. i was watching steve liesman's great interview at the milken conference, as i'm sure many of you were as well. rick did a good job at the top of the hour sort of summarizing some of it. and rick, i think -- rick, are you out there still? >> i'm out here, buddy. >> rick, you and i are always asked, frequently asked what about those -- and i know you touched on it -- that paid attention to the rules, put enough money that they thought they had put the money in fixed income to have a retirement, a plan. did you hear what i heard, which was essentially that, yes, if you followed the rules, we're very sorry, but in fact, given the circumstances that we're dealing with, we could only have one mandate, and that mandate is to try to grow no matter what we do with interest rates? that was the message, was it not? >> yeah. not only did i hear that, but i also think -- let me think -- i also think i heard them say that th

. >>> to our capital markets editor gary kaminski with some information about lehman. >> every personoor i can assure you remembers if they were in the business where they were on march 15, 2008, the day the news hit the tape about the transaction with jpmorgan, $2 a share. what's amazing in these documents, you could access all of them through the "l.a. times" who has links there. you've got all this information about what was happening in terms of the lehman reaction internally. i've got the call on. these are 67 pages of phone call logs in terms of what was happening. i find it fascinating. take a look at some of the calls. these are some of the calls that were coming in to lehman the day following the bear stearns transaction. you had government officials, other ceos, private equity players, pr players, hedge fund managers. but one stood out quite interesting -- take a look at a call and e-mail that was subsequently received into lehman. if we can get to that -- these are more sample calls. hang tough, made some money on your stock. it was crazy down at 22. discussed bear. remembe

i want to bring in gary kaminsky for more on this. gary, you're actually hearing it would have gone higher this the is a surprise it's at 42 right now. >> as soon as this indication ipo cross was visible to all, looked to first to a $45 selling. the actual ability for those to come in to see. we have the early indication 45, now looks at 42. we're showing 70 million shares paired off. you'll see that volume jump dramatically on the open print once it happens because there are orders that will trigger once we open. >> which we're about 15 seconds away. >> that has to be a surprise. most people wouldn't have expected if we opened only four points above 38 we're talking a little over 11%, 12% bump on the open. that would be surprisingly small in terms of the premium. not that it's a bad thing and may show a very stable market. >> david, remember there will be many that says look at the early indicator range. not where they priced it at 38. where was the original pricing range. look at the valuation then and look at the premium versus that

i'm michelle caruso-cabrera, along with joe kernen and gary kaminsky. >>> another greek the electionjune. much more on this in just a few minutes. jc penny a stock to watch. took a 13% to hit in after hours trading after reporting a bigger than expected 18.9% drop in first quarter same store sales. also eliminated its dividend. it's official, facebook has filed to increase the size of its initial public offering to about 422 million shares. that's a 25% jump. that means the deal could raise as much as $18.5 billion. the futures this morning are suggesting we have a pretty flat open. the s&p 500 would open lower but fractionally. the dow jones industrial would open up by eight. the nasdaq by one. flat in percentage terms. >> from facebook to jpmorgan there's nothing that today's guest host won't opine about, talk about. joining us is ken langone, ceo of geek net and a former new york stock exchange board member. also one of the, i don't know, you founded some company, home depot. >> co-founded. >> co-founder. that was the last thing. pretty good resume. >> well, i'm happy. >> and a fu

. >> let's bring in capital markets editor gary kaminski still in vegas at the investment conferenceinvestment holdings. >> i'm here with joe. some of the stuff we were chatting with off camera, joe is a character. good morning. >> you look very casual. i've got a suit on. >> you look very good. let's talk about willis quickly. you did report earnings. you did decide to withdraw guidance. an interesting thing, no longer giving future guidance. let's talk about the business and why you're not guiding the sell side analysts anymore. >> i think the world is difficult. it's very difficult to project into the future what you're going to be able to do. people take that information, and then they do something with that information. i think it's wrong. what we found out in the last three or four years is anything's possible. when you look at last year alone, there was over $100 billion of insured losses around the world, $300 billion of economic loss. you look at what happens in the eurozone. i made a projection at the beginning of 2011 that did our plans. you do the things that people like

gary kaminsky what is on your radar? >> let's talk about facebook.e funds, putting in the 10% orders, is that this thing will look, if we take the

gary kaminsky thinks this is a book all traders should read. >> that was the one i read.did you learn about the red light district in japan? the extent that you wrote about? >> i went inside. i went to tokyo. >> to the sex clubs. when they decide to put up a red light -- they do it in the thickest. >> actually went over there. >> it's not your cup of tea. >> i was there for 48 hours. it's a crazy scene. you guys are pretty much the only ones who read "ugly americans." in the finance world is great. we've been trying to make that movie forever. it's a great movie. >> welcome to the club. >> thank you. >> "accidental billionaires" became ""the social network." >> i got a random e-mail, my best friend co-founded facebook and no one has ever heard of him. i go out for a drink at a bar and eduardo shows up angry. says mark zuckerberg screwed me. he told this incredible story. as i got into it, it was much more complex. mark didn't want to talk to me. >> have you seen mark since the book or movie? >> no. i've met a lot of facebook people. they were mad at me for like a while an

. >> you know, gary kaminsky just e-mails me. he predicted the ten-year hits 1%. >> did he really?> 1%. i'm not going to say we're not there yet but we're quite aways. how much can you continue to buy treasuries if you look at bond futures, where they're going. this long position cannot continue. you know, another thing is that's where the liquidity is in the market. >> you would say, okay, so pension plans, individual invests, savers, what should they do in any given time in history you'd say buy stocks. why is that questionable as a strategy right now when you've got yielders at 3% and 4%, a blue chip company. you'd say go to the market. >> 1.5% is never sexy, right, but at the same time if we want to look at the commodities play and you're seeing a lot of that talk this morning through the papers, you know, early this year i thifrp you asked me back in january what's my trade of the year and i mentioned grain markets. ethanol, be it, whatever. you're looking at the largest corn acreage since 1937 this year. the demand is here. i'm not going to be surprised if we see gains on the

when gary kaminsky said it could break syndicate, i said what are you crazy?l -- >> it didn't that day. not even a cent. >> so close. and then of course it certainly has now. still to come, we're going to sit down with the president and ceo of comcast cable to talk about the push into the cloud and surging costs for sports content. stick around. ♪ [ laughter ] ♪ [ female announcer ] each one of us is our own boss. ♪ and no matter where you are in life, ask your financial professional how lincoln financial can help you take charge of your future. ♪ material stocks have put on decent gains. this is very much in general market terms the reaction to a rough couple of weeks. the dow down 3.5% last week. we have come back quite nicely. financials are doing well. let's have a look at the move so far as we embark upon another week's trading and you'll see that here at the nyse it is three to one and over at the nasdaq, the much troubled nasdaq, again, three to one advance to decline. >> let's get a quick market flash from brian shactman at headquarters. >> take a look

let's get to markets editor gary kaminski, who promised a take on chesapeake later in the show. >> we'vesing it for several weeks. did get an upgrade today. much like herb and i were talking about, much like the value guys coming into the broken momentum names. the street is littered by sell side analysts who try to pick bottoms on names like chesapeake, for example. i read through the report today. a lot of respect for bernstein as an institution, a sell side institution, and i read through the report. basically, as you pointed out, this is like saying a stock is cheap based on certain assumptions we're going to have, and therefore, we're going to upgrade it. you were right. we had it under perform. we're going to upgrade. the fundamental issue, when it comes to chesapeake that we try to make people understand, it's about leverage, leverage, leverage. while assets were being sold, certain assumptions were made. you listen to the conference call about where the gas will be, what the concentration is going to be in terms of trying to deleverage the business. to say the stock is cheap simp

gary kaminsky still here -- >> i'll say something nice about jamie dimon as well.e had a teflon reputation built on a mantra of risk management and expense control, and that's why you get the results bob was talking about. the real issue, again, is going to be a multiple of what these banks -- we've seen this many times before. the issue is not the earnings, but the multiple investors are willing to pay for it. remember, if this had been anything else, the numbers themselves aren't really the story. it's the fact that this is a management team that built up a huge institutional ownership base over a ten-year period that did not expect this type of a development from that company. >> still not going to get anybody else that's going to earn this kind of money. by the way, the u.s. government needs banks that are profitable to go out and sell the debt that it's going to need. how many banks are there that really matter, seven or eight in the united states? go out and sell the debt it needs to sell to maybe foreign banks? you need healthy american banks. >> by the way,