these were woodrow wilson, harry truman and george w. bush. these presidents experienced troubled or failed second terms. history aside, one cannot discount the possibility that obama would win not based on statistics like this, but because the electorate judges him the best alternative of the two candidates. success in a second term for obama is another matter, however. thank you. [applause] we really would welcome questions. it would be an advantage to c-span to have question and answer period. maybe some of you will reply to the questions that come from the audience, and we'd like you to participate as fully as you can. you see there's a microphone overhead that they'd like to take questions. do any of you have any questions? yes. >> al, i thought that was a remarkably objective and even-handed treatment and very insightful. thank you so much. my question is given that the president's opponents in the congress have made no bones about their goal to make him a one-term president, have you seen in your research any other situations that quite

bush's secretary of labor, george w. bush's homeland security director, george w. and last but not least, the current republican speaker of the house! mitt romney, change you can believe in, if you really like george w. bush, and if you like the current republican congress. then we're the kind of real change you're looking for. who cast this thing? the democrats? one of the reasons that the message of real change resonated so much back in 2008, one of the reasons that that actually worked for barack obama in that election, is because the country writ large had ceased to be delighted by the george w. bush administration. and it was not just the war in iraq. or the great recession. or warrantless wiretapping. or torture, or, or, or, or, or. it was also stuff like this. this is the u.s. state department's annual report on global terrorism from 2003. every year the state department will put together a report like this detailing incidents of terrorism around the world. and the next report after this one, the one that was slated for 2004, showed that despite the bush adm

still tag george w. bush with this down economy. and, look, i mean, we couldn't even win the argument on foreign policy in part because a lot of people are sick of the two wars that george w. bush got us into. that's just a fact. gorgeous george w. bush's type of republic party mitt romney as todd akin richard mourdock in another. >> very good with latinos, kevin mccarthy. we have some bright new leaders and we need to have more of those. >> george w. bush's policies spending and two wars ended up also delivering barack obama into the white house. but let's start with you, chip. your take where we are. what do you think of my point that romney ran a defensive campaign but he also did have to deal with the bush baggage, credibility on spending, and a foreign policy that was frankly the by product of the hopeful but ultimately rather confused and unsuccessful policy in the middle east? >> yeah. i think you are spot on. first, let me say i aspire to be one of those old white guys. >> laura: and rich. >> definite

the headliners were george w. bush's secretary of state, george w. labor secretary, the governor and current speaker of the house. mitt romney, change you can believe in if you really liked george w. bush and if you like the current republican congress. then we're the kind of real change we're looking for. who cast this thing, the democrats? one of the reasons that the message of real change resonated back in 2008 because the country at large had ceased to be delighted by the george w. bush administration. and it wasn't just the war in iraq or, or, or, or. it was stuff like this. this is the u.s. state department's annual report on global terrorism in 2003. every year they would put together a report like this detailing accidents of terrorism around the world. and the next report after this one, showed that despite the bush administration's claims that we were winning the war on terror, despite the constant claims, the number of terrorist attacks had gone up to its highest level in the two decades the state department had been publishing this report.

george w. bush for the economic woes they face right now. >> you know, it's remarkable, george. three years and ten months into the obama presidency, a majority of voters, in fact by a 15-point marriagen voters blame george w. bush, not barack obama for the current state of the economy and those voters are overwhelmingly voting for obama for re-election. george w. bush is the most unpopular second-term president in the post-war era following him into the presidency is for barack obama, the gift that keeps on giving. >> nicolle wallace, you've worked for george w. bush. you saw one thing, one dynamic in the entire campaign is mitt romney did not want to be tethered to the economic policies of george w. bush and, of course, president bush did not come to the convention. >> right, you know, he really was an invisible figure and republicans i think made a bet -- certainly in 2010 it worked against barack obama to still be blaming george w. bush who would appear based on the things we're looking at tonig

the bush tax cuts another a little less than half of it is is the two wars that there were that george bush put on the credit card and medicare part d. word he said that the government can't go she had drug prices so medicare is paying twice as much for drug prices as the military does and then the remainder is the word recession so tax collections are down and government outlays are up so you're absolutely right had we not had the bush tax cuts we wouldn't be in much of the mess we're in and in fact frankly if you want to go back to eighty four eighty five eighty six if we had had the reagan tax cuts we'd still have the prosperity that we had the fifty's sixty's seventy's and eighty's calvin in destin florida a calvin what's up. oh i have a saying where you discuss on the other thing is you know america is run like a bank money now well no it is common there for some reason on the spot system today just want to bring up taxes call the politician they like where i live it is their only real estate here just a mere allowed all the people in those shelters all real estate they just just refus

they ignored george w. bush, jeb bush, his brother who has been quite enlightened on the subject and said you cannot, in this country, continue to win only with white people's votes. and i just, i think that the very enlightened voices i heard in iowa, in the piece, you know, i hope the republicans heed them. because we are looking at an election right now where barack obama will probably get over 70% of latino vote. >> woodruff: so a net negative for the republicans? >> oh, yeah, increasingly. and i agree with the political analysis. i do think there is a pretty bipartisan from democrats who desire to close the border, to secure the border. or they will-- before they will trust washington to do anything on the immigration reform. but as far as the political prognosis, you can talk to karl rove, ken mel nunn, who ran the republican party, they can look at the demographics t is simple and obvious that it has just been shrink. within a few years you have swing state, maybe not even swing state, new mexico, nevada,

and george bush and the other people who have been responsible for the deaths of these tens of thousands of people americans iraqis and other nationalities tens of thousands if not over one hundred thousand people they are responsible for that because they lied because they wanted a war for economic reasons for political reasons for popularity reasons and maybe in george bush's case for family reasons. united states right now it's not beating its recruiting targets. we have walked through some neighborhoods down here in guatemala tens of thousands of young able capable boys girls men and women. give them the opportunity to come fight for us for five years and here's your green card. and lot of them are going to say yes. they think if they go to the united states they're going to find this beautiful lush lovely land no problems no one employment no violence no poverty. and sell that story. create that image and you're going to have lines willing to take the risk to get into heaven like. and as long as people are willing to pay illegally low salaries somebody will go illegally to take that

the next republican running for president in a serious way was george w. bush and his brother who was governor of florida knew that the only way george could win was of tens of thousands of democratic voters were purged from the voter rolls suggest ordered secretary of state katherine harris to produce to me to purge tens of thousands of largely african-american voters from the rolls which she did harris could nearly sixty thousand mostly african-american voters off the rolls claiming that those people who comprise three percent of the entire african-american electorate in florida had been convicted of felonies and with us ineligible to vote turns out though that was a lie the list based on a texas felon list led to tens of thousands of completely eligible african-american florida voters with names similar to texas felons being denied the right to vote thanks to republicans throwing all these mostly democratic leaning voters off the voting rolls the election stayed close enough in florida that its outcome was you know in doubt after election night the florida s

we did some work with them, and in the last months of 2007 george bush went to nancy pelosi and harry reid and said i need a, guess what, stimulus. that terrible word. pelosi and reid worked with him to do that. then in 2008 they came to us. john, you and i worked together on the whole response to the financial. i believe we had in 2007, 2008, this is not a longstanding problem. a great deal of cooperation in the bush administration. i do believe that there were elected some people in 2010, tea party influence, who reputinated the notion of compromise, and someave said it exclusively. i think partisanship, you have to start from a position of principle and then you work together. i think in 2007 and 2008 we showed how can you do that. >> candy, let me join in the general hopefulness that we're going to avoid the fiscal cliff, but it's not a done deal. it's not a certainty. the reason is the country -- the government is on automatic pilot to the fiscal cliff, to massive tax increases and really horrible spending cuts on january 1st unless we act, so if congress does -- congress has got

back in 2004 when george bush carried the state it was 50-50. this is a swing area of the state. at the moment the president is ahead by -- >> almost half the vote is in. >> almost half the vote is in. a republican needs that margin in orange county to be tighter than that to carry the state. let's move over, the other big county, hillsborough. this has gone back and forth a couple times. we're up to 61% now. not a huge margin, 52-47, but

you voted for the wall street bailout and the george bush tax cuts that exploded our deficit and now she wants even more tax breaks for millionaires. she supports 0 program called pat cap and balance that would require deep cuts to social security and medicare. i will never balance the budget on the backs of our seniors. medicare and social security argentine went. they're a promise we made to our seniors and a promise i intend to keep. i come home every weekend to meet with new mexicans, old job fairs, raise my family. i am always fought for the things that matter most to the people of the state and if you send me to the united states senate i will continue that fight and be honored to have

it reminded voters that no matter how well the framework had been constructed, george bush was responsible for iraq and therefore every problem america had, there were real problems. there were real threats. >> why do you think barack obama killed him? he didn't want a last-minute tape helping another republican. it's a joke, people! it's a joke! >> okay. >> it's a joke! >> the hurricane reminded people that president obama was not responsible for every problem. >> steve did make a point that there is a lot of separation and fatigue with the president, a lot of anxiety about the economy and where we're going. >> you want to do this story? >> i do, actually. >> do you really? >> is that okay? >> i guess so. >> okay. it's out now. >> seriously. you want to do the story. >> i do. >> okay, go ahead. >> you could have asked me more quietly. we've been talking about -- >> if it makes you feel good the day before the election. go ahead. >> what? what? >> are we on the air, actually? >> yes, we're on the air. sometimes we talk about our

this is the way george w. bush ran his presidency. whether you liked or didn't like george w. bush, he was always out there being a salesman. it's the reality that we live in a entire campaign. it is strictly the only way to do this business. >> now, it would seem also, victoria, that the president is in a better position to really make his case. his approval rating is 52%. congress's approval rating is only 18%. so with him on the road with that kind of gap in who has the higher approval numbers, which is no comparison, that's got to put some pressure on members of congress. >> absolutely. and, again, he's coming off the wave of the outreach wave of the 2012 campaign. it is really important he sells this policy, even though people indicate they support it, because at the same time, even though republicans are complaining that he's going on the road, republicans themselves right now are organizing themselves, house republicans, to take their own show on the road. so, the president is going to have pressure and competition from republican house members. it cannot sell itself, as

común, este encuentro pasará más de ser un acto simbolico, no se les vera junto como bill clinton y george bushblo estadounidense, tuvieron unas elecciones amargas, habla bien de los dos que se sienten a almorzar, muchos republicanos le dieron la espalda a mitt romney, pero algunos creen que promueve el bipartidismo . >> ser una persona que puede tratar de poner a los dos partidos un poco de acuerdo en algo . >> mitt romney también se reunió en privado con pau ryan, el primer encuentro entre ambos, el servicio secreto dijo que un hombre que se paró en la camioneta de mitt romney fue arrestado por asaltar a la policía . >> el presidente de los estados unidos barack obama como mitt romney quisieron una conversación totalmente privada dijo el portavoz, por otra parte adfirmó que no había planes para ofrecerle un cargo en la administración como algunos especulaban. >> el ex presidente estadounidense george bush padre es tratado en un hospital en texas por una bronquitis, dicen que el ex mandatario está en condición estable y se epsera que le den de alta en las proxiams 72 horas . >> acusan al encue

from george bush the percentage that was white was 77%. four years ago it was 74% the tonight it's 72%. the youth vote and the black vote turned out once again. this is to the president's credit. >> you predicted this when a lot of folks were saying we don't see the enthusiasm. >> i've been saying we'll be surprised thad the enthusiasm gap is a myth. there was a backlash against the backlash. you had groups like the dream defenders, all these young groups that didn't get any press they were working hard. >> romney took independent votes. mccain didn't take them and neither did push. he did it by four points. secondly senior citizens. they went five points for bush and eight for mccain. seniors are growing because of the baby boomi retirement. the bottleneck is at the front. there are good demographic factors for republicans. >> you say good demographic factors but having a party based on older whites is not a future. >> you have to put all these data points together. it's not that they are in the 80, 90 range. it's the ones that are turnin

and he will have the bracing memories of the first george bush, george bush the elder, who made a promise -- no new taxes -- and then came under enormous fire from his own party when he broke that promise. >> i'm going to let you off the hook of predicting how the election is going to go on tuesday, but thank you very much. >> thank you. >> you can stay up to date with all the developments in the race to the white house by going to our website. we have a special page on the u.s. elections with interactive guides and videos. simply go to bbc.com/uselectrics. >> just as the u.s. election is taking center stage here in china, it's the communist party's meeting next week which will usher in a new generation of leaders. among the challenges facing them will be improving the country's infrastructure. no project has been bigger or more controversial. tonight martin travels there. >> it's one of the biggest dams ever built, stripping for over two kilometers and costing over $40 billion. the dam was designed to tame the mighty yank see. with a project on this scale, nobody was to get in the way. w

crisis and these were jefferson, cleveland, coolidge, franklin roosevelt with a 37 downturn and george bush to eight failed due to their inability to leave with jefferson, wilson, truman, johnson, nixon and bush. they failed to to franklin roosevelt and richard nixon. four of them did not effectively communicate this agenda or initiative were jefferson, monroe, grant and cleveland. obviously the dominant source of failure for the second term prudent has been their inability to successfully work with congress, the second term presidents have faced troubled or second terms do directly to the fight between the congress and the white house. having a congressional majority of their own party is no assurance of release. those presidents that serve in the congress having the majority of the opposing party during the second term included willson, eisenhower, nixon, ronald reagan and clinton. the competitive battle to the president and congress dates to the site george washington had in the congress over the treaty. he had won approval only after standing considerable efforts looking directly with m

four years ago, let's go back to when george w. bush carried the state. he won that county. if you came into fairfax county eight years ago, george w. bush lost the county but look at the margin. a much bigger margin for president obama. these close-in northern virginia suburbs where the people are, that's where most of the population growth is. governor romney doesn't have to win them, just has to get much closer than john mccain did four years ago. that's in the state of virginia. let's pick another one. we talk about how busy and important ohio is going to be. if you want to look at a couple of places in ohio, i will circle them for you. let's take two. one in the northeast corner, one in the southwest corner. what's in the northeast corner? lake county just outside cleveland. this is the suburbs. close presidential elections are won in the suburbs in america. in lake county, it's 2% of the population but there are people like this throughout this battleground state. you see the president with a very narrow victory when george w. bush carried the state, he had a very narro

what mitt romney is talking about is economic plan is very different than what george bush ran on, george w. bush in 2000 and 2004 and i don't know that voter are saying that is the same old plan. i know president had suggested that, but i think what he's talking about is far different in terms of turning the economy around. i don't think voters are necessarily making -- >> the polls don't show. that polls show that voters, women and men blame the hole we got in to on george bush, you can't get away from that. >> you don't hear any talk about it between the two candidates. >> actually i do hear it. >> voters are smarters than most of the pollsters i have to say. they understand that it's not one man or one -- >> that's what that he say to the pollsters. i don't think you can avoid that. the reason i think the economy has -- as much as it should that he has made no definitive case for why he would be better. his so-called plan still leaves the very richest getting the very most. everybody knows that. he hasn't in fact come forward with something that really separates him from the bush year

i'm sure that's the bush's favorite. >> you might see george bush in the restaurant or barbara bush inre's also an enormous activity center. they've got a rock climbing wall, lots of personal trainers. it's a really, really fun place to hang out, and that costs 179. it's also near the city's great art district and great shopping. >> that one, too, fairly reasonable. let's go to hawaii. you have to carve out a lot of time in order to make that big trip, but tell us specifically about the kahala hotel and why it is one to visit. >> the kahala, every president since lyndon johnson has stopped by here, including barack obama in his 2008 presidential campaign. he had an event here. it's a peaceful hotel on 800-foot white sand beach. there are some fishing, snorkeling and scuba diving. that costs from $661 a night at the moment. >> wow. it's a gorgeous scene no matter what. no matter where you are in hawaii, who is going to complain? >> exactly. this is just ten minutes from waikiki, but it feels completely isolated. >> that's kate maxwell from jet setter. for more tips visit jetsetter.com/g

this race so much mirrors 2004 and the reelection of george w. bush but the difference in this race is there's more data points to look at so there's a clear indication this time of what's about to happen than in 2004 and what ultimately ended up happening. but if you look at the preponderance of the evidence and all of this stuff-- and it's not fully conventional wisdom, just data points and all of the data points, in the history of this polling in the modern presidential campaign it is prom -- the preponderance of the evidence has never been wrong. there's never been a time when the election day was different than the preponderance of the evidence. could it happen once in -- yes, it could possibly happen. but as of right now this is a close race but i think it's ultimately going to be a convincing victory by president obama. it will be close but it will be convincing. >> rose: mark halperin, do you concur? >> i think the winner of ohio will win and there's more reason to think the president will win ohio than governor romney will. there's the questi