george osborne is a conservative and on labor. on this one, we're both on the same side. i think on the economy, we're winning the argument. >> it must be very uncomfortable standing there knowing this was your political opponent. knowing that over the years you've traded some pretty bad comments. how didou feel personally? how did you reconcile or overcome perhaps that animosity to get to that common message? >> well, it was a year ago that we.general election an i lost my seat. in some ways the strangest thing after 12 months of not doing any of that to be back on the podium. it was quite a trip down memory lane for me. i guess on europe, george osborne and i totally agree with the single currency would be bad for britain. on the eu, we both believe we should stay and fight on that, we agree. the people even have quite bitter disputes and deep differences about values or policies, whether that's about tax credits or the pace of reduction. but it comes to this big question of europe, we can agree. and the single outlet, if you're undecided whether you're blue or red, if

plunging into recession according to george osborne.onth before the eu referendum, a controversial treasury analysis says thousands would lose their jobs. gdp want plunge by up to 6% over a period of time. our next guest is going to disagree with this. roger bootle joins us from capital economics. he is also the author of a book which i think has been updated. are we heading for a recession if we leave the eu? roger: i am going to disagree with this analysis. guy: i'm shocked. roger: it is a very difficult thing to forecast the future. all economists should know that. we have to be pretty modest. in would be funny if it were not so important, this issue. really, we don't know. there's an enormous range and a positive range. my own guess is that after we left the eu, there would be a period during which not much would happen. continue.fe would then we go into a strange phase where we don't know what is going to turn out, then there will be some effects. but we don't know what those effects will be. guy: this is where it is interesting to

that is according to david cameron and torche george osborne.s one month before the referendum. meanwhile, a controversial treasury in alice published today says thousands would lose their jobs, the value of the pound with slumped, and gdp would slump up to 6% in the event of a brexit. manus: and tomorrow, mark carney will once again, face members of the treasury committee. this will be his final public engagement before the pre-eu referendum. this comes after a fiery exchange with a pro-brexit lawmaker. he also accused carney of compromising the independence of the bank of england by making speculative pro-eu statements. let's bring david stubbs back into the conversation. david, in terms of everything that is going on with the brexit debate, one thing that comes to mind, we see sterling, we will hear from cameron today, talking about the u.k.'s self-induced recession. a heavy warning in the final days. ed, and i think we will see more of this. i don't think we will see the immediate impact after the vote to leave. we know with a great deal of

george osborne was speaking before that treasury select committee.ims onorne: the the impact on the economy have been supported by the bank of england, the oecd, the director of the imf and every major credible institution in the world. and everyone one of our allies in the world has supported the arguments we have made about our security. francine: well, osborne also weighed in on the possible applications of a brexit for the bank of england. george osborne: there is this term, they would face -- quite a difficult trade-off between rising inflation and output. what their decision would be would be for them, but what we do know, or what we can assume is that credit conditions in the markets would be -- tighter financial conditions. comeine: those comments ahead of the bank of england super thursday. we get the rate announcement and hear from mark carney. of course, the brexit debate has loomed large in over markets. and the outlook of the central bank's rate -- joining us with the latest is the lead u.k. economist from unicredit. thank you so much fo

when you listen to george osborne, when he is at japan, they are trying to put concrete figures on ithouse prices between 10% and 18%. how can they know it is 10% at 18% and not 21%? >> you have to love the precision. that sort of accuracy is spurious. 18%e is no way you can say or 10%. it depends entirely on complements. we just don't know. haven't to watch -- i happened to watch a couple movies on churchill. what would churchill do? i love how you cast aside the precision of the math. is there a churchill out there in this debate? i don't see it. >> we know the economics as part of the argument, but it will not be addressing a lot of people's concerns. it's more about sovereignty, feelings on migration. so no. i don't know which book you read, but i believe boris johnson wrote a book about churchill. tom: sri-kumar. this is the need to history. when you look at the prism of brexit, i would suggest you look at not only the economics but the emotion. >> the emotion has overtaken the economics recently. look at the number of people who are opposing brexit. prime minister cameron made a

leaving the european union could add tens of billions of pounds borrowing and force george osborne to extend austerity into the next decade. instead of returning to sublet -2020 fiscal year as planned, britain may face -- if it votes for a brexit next month. donald trump has won the republican presidential primary in washington state. that puts the parties present of nominee on the cusp of crossing the threshold required to formally secure the nomination. at the same time, paul ryan has begun telling confidence that he wants to and his standoff with -- he wants to end his standoff with trump. global news --global news, 24 hours a day, powered by 2400 journalists in more than 150 news bureaus around the world. you can find more stores on the bloomberg at top . megan: thank you very much for that. greece's creditors have reached an agreement that will allow .elease of euros of aid there have taken steps to relieve the burden of debt. after a meeting of leaders in brussels, the international monetary fund softened its stance it we are going to be joined by ian. what if you got from l

i read this and i say this is , i reflect back on the warnings to george osborne about coming too far fast. where are we in this debate? >> -- this isere that the worry. the imf is expecting you could end up with economic growth at 1.3% versus 4.3%. last year a major slowdown and the economy sector could be slowing down more. the issue here and what the economists say, governments need to be helping the economy. and trying to pull down when times are good. but this is a story of diversification. it is -- i would do we had their program they started. i know what to buy is but what is on the dobby, it has a different view on its tourist industry. >> definitely. what they wanted to look for are those who spend more and they built up a lot of hotel rooms which are the majority five star. they're building the louvre and the time. create mostly financial services and some are already filled in the tourism. that would be held. story you bring it home. you read about what is happening. there is a new ceo and how many of these job cuts are down to him. there is a major pullback on the railways

ben george osborne will questioned on -- the permanent damage of brexit. last stand.be the brazilian presidents last day. it would force rousseff out and into an impeachment trial. investors have welcomed the possibility of her ousting. the benchmark index is one of the best performing this year. a globals is emerging market strategist. when you look at dilma rousseff, first of all, is it likely that startss, the process from impeachment today. so this is likely to be the last day. what is the probability of that? >> the process has already started. it started with the lower house. inay we'll have the votes the senate. what we need is 50% of the votes plus one. i think it is extremely unlikely we do not get that foe. she will have to step down -- it is extreme the unlikely we do not get this vote. we do expect she will be in peace by the senate. she will have to step down for a period of up to 180 days. after this, the senate will have to vote again. then you will need a 2/3 majority for her to prominently step down. what is interesting to watch today, it is not wheth

government borrowing and force the chancellor george osborne to extend austerity into the next decade, according to the institute for fiscal studies. asstead of returning -- currently planned, britain may face a budget deficit of as much as 30 billion pounds if it votes for a brexit next month. donald trump has won the republican presidential primary in washington state. presumptivee nominee on the cost of crossing the delegate threshold required to formally secure the nomination. at the same time, paul ryan has begun telling confidentes he wants to end his standoff with trump. according to two people close to the lawmaker. they said ryan's decision is due couldcerns that the split sharpen divisions in the republican party. global news powered by our 2400 journalists in more than 150 news bureaus around the world and you at top go. the strengthening dollar is striking up -- is the steadynga -- rate against the dollar combined with depreciation against other major currencies. our guest is the international investment strategist at devere group. when you look at china, the problem is th

recession.dum on a david cameron a george osborne say britain will be plunged into a crisis of its own making if they vote for brexit. welcome to "the pulse," live from london. i'm francine lacqua. we are getting breaking news. eurozone pmi manufacturing service figures. a touchhanged at 53.1, below estimates, but not by much. manufacturing pmi fell to 51.5, also lower than expected. we were expecting 51.9. remember, anything above 50 still means we are in expansion, however we are seeing a little bit more of a fall than was expected. this is the picture for euro-dollar. we've had a lot of currency moves, as a lot of central bankers were in japan. you can see euro-dollar 112.14. this is. european stocks falling. .19.e oil, 48 it data briefly sink below 48. emerging-market shares extending the rebound we saw on friday. i also want to show you bayer, making an unsolicited $62 billion all-cash offer to acquire monsanto, as shareholders worry about overpaying and valuation. let's get to the first word with nejra cehic. nejra: thanks. the u.s. economy should be solid enough to merit an inte

david cameron george osborne said that they will be plunged into a crisis of its own making if they votexit.

it was not done on the back of a piece of paper by george osborne. chairman says publicly and repeatedly that we are going to leave the single market, we must take that to be the vote leave position. he made it very clear that you are going to leave the single market. if you take a different view, that is fine. but that is the view he set out very clearly. you look at the two scenarios of outside the single market and insight. thatroblem for liam is every single economic, reputable imf, oxford, the economics, london school of economics, and the bank of england, and we have to be told that all of these people are in some sort of a conspiracy. they are all colliding together and have been paid to say what they are saying. it is not credible, and they all come to the same conclusion. why would people want to risk it? it is profoundly wrong because the leave campaign will not be the government. it is a multiparty government that will not -- that will disappear after the referendum. we have to have a full set of scenarios set out for the treasury which wi

george osborne said if trump is elected, brittain will still talk to him. >> there's an american presidential candidate and we will talk to him because it's in our interests to talk to allies like the united states of america. >> osborne said that he and cameron stand by their opposition to trump's post muslim ban. >>> now the democrats who are looking ahead to their next primary tomorrow in kentucky. at a rally in louisville yesterday hillary clinton took on trump as well as her democratic rival, bernie sanders. take a look. >> there is a big difference in this primary campaign between me and my opponent, bernie sanders. i voted to bail out the auto industry and he voted against it because i wanted to save those millions of jobs. >> hillary clinton! >> clinton has three rallies scheduled today, kentucky. we just found out her daughter chelsea has two events in monmouth county. sanders, meanwhile, is stopping for a couple of rallies in san juan. it holds its democratic caucuses on june 5th. sanders trails clinton. he says he's in a better position to beat trump because he does well with both

mark carney, christine lagarde, and george osborne, and boris johnson, of course, for the leave side.ought brexit, was back on the horizon -- we have contingency measures. the imf demanding contingency measures. this is just a never-ending story, isn't it? anna: the never-ending greek saga. greeks are fighting to unlock the next tranche of aid money. ministers will be gathering in brussels today, putting this back on the radar. at issue is contingency measures the imf demanded greeks implement worth 3.5 billion euros, about 3% of the greek gdp, a politically thorny issue for a prime minister who came into power by promising he would oppose extra austerity. he only has a three-c parliamentary -- three-seat ary majority.re manus: anna, denmark warned -- what is that about? many asnmark is seen by a test case for the negative interest rate phenomenon that has swept much of the developed world. they had it for four years, and at the imf is warning about asset bubbles in the housing market. another reminder of the, of how much of a frontier of the latest thinking by central banks on policy

leavehe first thing the campaign is saying is that you can believe a word the george osborne says.ry has been job to do, and it has done it. they are trying to shift the debate away from the economy. they're releasing a film today which is about the national health service, and their argument is that increased immigration will put the national health service at risk in the wind you can control immigration is by leaving the eu. they're also making a big deal of the question of whether turkey is going to join the eu, is one of the slightly embarrassing ones where u.k. government policy is that turkey should join the eu, that has always been u.k. government policy. but that's not really u.k. government policy at the moment. even if it were up to the u.k., it's out of to the u.k., because france and greece and fibrous and a whole bunch of other countries would have a say as well. mark: we will see you next hour. rob hutton, thank you. shery: we now turn to the u.s.. what a difference 10 months can make. back in july, poll showed hillary clinton the 20 point lead in a potential contest

meanwhile, former london mayor boris johnson took another swipe at the prime minister and chancellor george osborneccusing them both of produce, quote, hostage videos to md lead the public. johnson maintained that those people, quote, did not speak for the majority of business. >>> i had a chance to catch up with the former uk chancellor lord lamont and asked him how trade would actually look like with the eu if the event of brexit actually takes place. >> trade taking place between eu as exactly most places in the world trade with eu, australia, united states, japan, china, they all trade with the eu. and all sell successfully into the single market without being a mart of the single market. there's this myth created that somehow the eu is incredibly difficult to sell into. it isn't difficult to sell into. united states, maybe miles away, maybe a larger economy, but actually it tells more to the eu to the single market than britain does. switzerland which is a tiny country sells per capita five times as much without being a new member. it's not some fortress with very high walls. >> in order to ha

after that, george osborne, british chancellor stands in for prime minister david cameron and takes questionsbritish defense committee hearing on combating isis in iraq and syria. ♪ on q&a,r: this week bettyenate historian koed. she talks about the work done by her office. brian: betty koed? if you had to choose a character th

george osborne saying that, the home price in london, will drop 80% in britain leaves the eu.ediately after that report came out, the lead cap contested it. he is not done yet. this is the last week for the treasury to make a mark, the last it effort starting on friday, we have that period, basically the government self-imposed curfew on what they can and cannot say. saw bright and early on sunday, prime and mr. david cameron said the shopping list of food and drink can go up as much as 120 pounds a year if britain were to leave the eu. on the agenda,p we will see lots of reports and analysis out of the government before that self-imposed restriction starts on friday. manus: well, anne-marie, all to play for. it must be true. better than my daily mail. anne-marie joining us every week on bloomberg markets middle east. great to have you this morning. let us shift attention back to saudi arabia. the bottom markets, the first international continuance for foreign financing, the reason to plug the debt. great to have you with the. when are they planning to come to the market? >> w

. >> meanwhile, george osborne also warned of a threat to the u.k.'s housing market should a brexit go ahead. the chancellor warned that homeowners would be hit by falling prices while those hoping to buy could suffer from higher mortgages. >>> now likely republican presidential nominee donald trump struck back at gop leaders for their lack of support. speaking on nbc's "meet the press" trump was blindsided by house speaker paul ryan's refusal to endorse him. trump also broke with republican leadership on raising taxes for the highest earners. >> i think nobody knows more about taxes than i do. and income than i do. but i'll explain how it all works. i don't come up with it, i come up with the biggest tax cut of any candidate, anybody. and i put it in. but that doesn't mean that's what we're going to get. we have to negotiate. the thing i'm going to do is make sure the middle class gets good tax breaks. because they have been absolutely shunned. the other thing i'm going to fight very hard for business. for the wealthy, i think frankly it's going to g

that was put out by the finance minister, george osborne with the prime minister standing next to himvid cameron. meantime, boris johnson, former mayor of london, this event persuaded a man with an egg not to throw it at him, saying people are going hungry, save the egg. back to you. >> simon hobbs, thank you. >>> meanwhile, is the stockbrokerage industry on the verge of major consolidation? our next guest says falling revenues, increased regulatory red tape and higher costs will drive a majority, a majority of the existing securities firms to either merge or disappear completely. joining us exclusively, a pioneer of electronic markets, thomas henerfee of interactive brokers group where he is the founder, chairman and ceo. welcome to "squawk alley." >> thank you. >> i want to start with a quote that you gave to the financial times, saying only one-fifth of brokerages will survive. there will be fewer and bigger firms, trading will be extremely cheap and efficient and there will be more semi-automated trading algorithms. sounds like that sentiment could have been pulled from any time p

government borrowing and forced chancellor george osborne to extend austerity into the next decade. 2019-20of returning in 20 is currently planned, they deficitce of budget next month. is on the cusp of crossing the delegate threshold wire to formally secure the nomination. at the same time house speaker paul ryan has begun telling confidants that he wants to end his handoff with donald trump. they said his decision is in part because the split has sharpened divisions in the republican party. the oil market is rebalancing, but don't count on ever seeing prices at $100 a barrel again. telling bloomberg is not planning or hoping for prices to go back to where they were. >> reap the benefits and tax it like we obviously do. but to plan for 100 and in depth with 60, it's better to plan for 60 and let the people who want to vote for a hundred vote for 100. prosecutorslice and have rated googles offices in paris as part of attacks brought investigation. google releasing a statement saying it complies with french law and is cooperating with investigators. for more stories, just go to the functi

. >> with the british prime secretarynd in japan, george osborne answered questions in his place.y talk about the european union referendum, and job security. this is 40 minutes. >> thank you very much, mr. speaker. the prime minister is attending the g7 in japan. in addition, i will have further such meetings later today. colefield. >> members would agree would the first priority of government to have the security of our country. that's also the chancellor outlying to me that this government is taking to a place -- [inaudible] >> absolutely right. the duty of government is to defend country an for almost 70 years independent has provided ultimate insurance of our freedoms. we will review our bringing forward votes in our house and from all sideswa

later we get george osborne, also in the remain camp. and then, we have the bank of england.eady, mark carney has been shouted down. let's talk more about the ramifications of this brexit debate. joining us now is the strategist from citigroup. michael, talk to us about where you see guilts going. down a little bit. where do we see this in the longer term? michael: first of all, talking we have ait, i think 30% to 40% probability of the brexit happening. that is quite a close call. guilts, wef think the front end of the curve showed it replicate -- and of the curve should replicate. we don't have any supply coming into the market until july. therefore, this point of the curve looks quite attractive. euro bondut the scenario isbrexi slowing down economic growth. there we have seen some sort of relative weakness for the irish government bond market, but also for the spanish government bond market. as i said, brexit is not the only case. guy: guy, in london. caroline: guy, please. guy: the market has performed reasonably well. how would you expect guilds to trade post brexit? wi

congress is scheduled to vote on the impeachment of president dilma rousseff. 15 minutes after george osbornestioned by the house of treasury select committee about a report of the permanent economic damage of brexit. you can watch that on life go. guy: let's talk about with happening in the currency markets. richard jones joins us. this is caught my eye and yours as well -- a piece of "the telegraph." a part of the speech carney gave in nottingham. carney tells amanda said down the u.k. base rates could go to 3.5%. i brought up a chart of u.k. base rates -- this is a five-year chart. let me see if i can get a bigger. yeah. .5% for the last forever. 3.5%, really? richard: you really have to look at what investor expectations are. amazing. richard: partly because -- the brexit impact is something that i think, in the near-term, will provide more economic uncertainty. mp and thetrot in thu expectations. guy: the idea is -- the bank of england might mandate, which could be something. richard: a change, wouldn't it? the near-term conservative be about growth, and i think that will study the ship,

a case for britain remaining in the european union, george osborne was speaking for the treasury select. george: the claims on the impact of the economy have been supported by the bank of england, the only director of the imf, and every major credible institution in the world. and every one of our allies in the world supports the arguments we made about our securities. anna: well, we are exactly six weeks away from the eu referendum. so bloomberg's rodney jefferson decided to travel the length of the u.k. to gauge of extent of them. the 13 hour on britain's largest train began in aberdeen. over 773 miles, 45 stops, and numerous views on why britain should stay in or leave the eu. be surroundedmay the current regulations that the european union, the additional kind of factors, the protection of again. and they kind of act as a mechanism on this country. they kind of pull back the extreme. and i think that is the reason why we should stay in. >> what i object to is the fact that we elect people in this country to pass laws on our behalf as governors. but those laws effectively are influen

scarlet: george osborne had claims that this -- that leaving the eu would lead to cheaper energy billsup. joe: they are trying to hammer this in the closing ways that it's bad for housing and taxes but i don't know if that will do it but that seems to be the key argument. scarlet: today, we will look at the s&p 500 which is within spitting distance of an all-time high even though it does not feel like it. katie stockton will come equipped with charts to talk about it. coming up in the next hour, the centers for disease control director joins us for a look at the zika virus and the possible impact on the olympics. that is next. ♪ david: it is 2:00 p.m. in new york, 7:00 p.m. in london and 2:00 a.m. in hong kong. >> welcome to "bloomberg markets ." from bloomberg world headquarters in new york, i am david gura. u.s. equities on pace to close the market in the green. what will drive trading going forward? bei think china is likely to risk factor in the shorter-term, but over the medium-term, the greatest risk factor is monetary policy exhaustion. shery: $50 a barrel as supply disruptions

are given the standards of emerging economies, given the status of urgency and the standards of george osborneour own chancellor, and the shenanigans that many governments get up to, in trying to manipulate or move money around, this is not a crime she should be impeached for. be oncus should corruption which is far more seriously pernicious. this is further going to polarize the brazilian society. i do not think this is a long-term healthy solution. this does not demonstrate a censoring of brazilian institutions. francine: how much is this also just an economy on its knees? you saw unemployment almost double in a couple months. inflation going through the roof. this is mismanagement. how do we know the next person in charge will do a better job? >> we don't know. which is why we are less constructive on brazil and the emerging market space. there has been a strengthening of the real. going buy now, are you to get this feature reforms that has rallied on a hoax of? -- on the hopes of? francine: thank you so much. of course, our very own brazilian expert, john fehar. boone pickens capital found

george osborne jumps on it and says it's evident that brexit will be bad for the economy and they downgradedr this year and next year and the year after. as you know, they cap the inflation forecast the same. everything could change if the u.k. votes to stay in the eu after june 23. it makes the next six or seven weeks very exciting. good to have you with us. up next, a look at the agenda later today and tomorrow on retail sales. that's next on "bloomberg ." ♪ ," this is "bloomberg almost 25 minutes into the session. 1/3 of the dow is up. heading to the closing europe and just rolling over and the dax is down by 2/10 of 1%. the euro is a little softer against the dollar, the pound is firmer comic cable is at 145.21 after a bank of england non-decision. the next move is likely to be a rate hike in the u.k.. not the dovish tone some people expected. the treasury yields are running a little higher. on today's agenda is another big auction, 30 years. >> we are seeing record amounts and willing buyers. coming up on the agenda at 11:00 eastern, the federal reserve bank president will spea

george, back to you. >> erica, thank you. people will be enjoying tonight's weather for as long as it lasts. nbc 10 pamela osborn is live in ocean city. >> george, it is absolutely gorgeous out. people are not waiting for things to open up before they get moving this morning. it has been a busy memorial day weekend here already down at the shore. judging by the amount of people out at this hour, it will probably be another jam packed day here. businesses say they saw big crowds, a solid start to their summer season, and the temperature was just right for spending the day by the water. here is how some of the younger beachgoers spent the day cooling off yesterday. >> i love summer, it is more fun than school. so i just want it to be warm an not rain. >> fun in the cool water and the hot weather. >>> also last night, the jersey shore pops kicked off their season with the sounds of frank sinatra. the people who were at the pier said that will definite i will be out again. live in ocean city, i'm pamela osborn, nbc 10 news. >>> and celebrating the memorial day weekend with several events today. a parade to honor our