uppal for germany let's speak to presidents of the german institute for economic research myself francesco came up with these numbers thank you very much for joining us on day to be business 391000000000 euros that's the figure but what could that look like in terms of businesses and people's lives you have these are numbers and of course these are very rough numbers what we have done is to simply say what would have happened to the economy if there had been no coronavirus how would the economy have grown and what's happened has happened last year and this year maybe this year instead and of course as you say 1st of all we don't have a good understanding of what's the long term damage to the economy and in particular might be quarry for this is that we might see a wave of company insolvencies many companies are over indebted they are still suffering they still not back to normal and so we will see the. number of insolvencies with that people becoming unemployed we already have probably round about one and a half 1000000 people either regular jobs or so-called many jobs that have been lost

for with the new vaccines now earlier we spoke to marcel fracture he's head of the german institute for economic research which published that analysis and here's what he had to say. i think i'm afraid we will see bankruptcies increasing very steeply this year and the best the government can do is to stop the 2nd wave of the virus and help the economy having to restart vets the single most important objective not just from a health perspective but also from an economic perspective all right marcelle for us are there for us and the continuation of the coronavirus pandemic means the continuation of a disastrous period for the global turn some sectors as well restrictions are preventing people crossing borders or for making long term travel plans for tour operators their very existence is on the line. the longest railroad connection in the world the trans siberian railway the tracks between moscow and beijing run more than 1000 kilometers to operator of any day of a disguise and has always done well financially with this special train adventure but the coronavirus pandemic has forced all bookings to be canc

for with the new vaccines the earlier we spoke to marcel fracture he's head of the german institute for economic research which published that analysis and here's what he had to say i think i'm afraid we will see bankruptcies increasing very steeply this year and the best the government can do is to stop the 2nd wave of the virus and help the economy having restarted vets' the single most important objective not just from a health perspective but also from an economic perspective all right marcel for us are there for us and the continuation of the coronavirus pandemic means the continuation of a disastrous period for the global tourism sector as well restrictions are preventing people crossing borders or for making long term travel plans for tour operators their very existence is on the line. the longest railroad connection in the world the transfer iberian railway tracks between moscow and beijing run more than 9000 kilometers tour operator danny de lay biggest prize and has always done well financially with this special train adventure but the coronavirus pandemic has forced all bookings to be cancelle

back in 1990 but as look specifically at germany now because the institute for economic research has just published its latest index of german business sentiment it shows a drop at the start of this year but speak to clement's fears the president of a phony thanks for joining us on t.w. business always great to have you on so how big is this drop in sentiment. it's a significant drop and it's particularly hard it's particularly strong in retail and even in wholesale and that's no surprise because a large parts of retail are closed have been closed since mid december but we now see the impact and we see the impact not just at retailers but also in wholesale wholesale we even see it in the service sector in transport and there just takes for instance companies tell us the situation has worsened significantly so there is a clear impact are there specific policies that are getting in the way of businesses feeling optimistic it's not so much the policies it's a lot of uncertainty about the new virus variants found in great britain that will spread to europe or has already spread to europe it is certainly also uncertainty of our l