gershon: let's start with a year ago.ee or four cuts by now and they got zero. was the market wrong? not necessarily. you would have gotten six or seven or eight cuts by now or there was a chance it would happen and inflation would be sticky and the fed would not cut it all. it's the same thing going forward. i expect one to two cuts is an unlikely scenario. either the data will get quite a bit worse and inflation will be whatever it is but the fed will be like we have to cut and they will cut four or five or six times. or, inflation will be sticky. the economy will be fine. the fed will hold off until 2025. those are more likely. lisa: if you love treasuries can you love credit? gershon: i think you can love both. spreads are justifiably tight. companies have spent the last four years post-covid paying down debt. leverage has come down. they were not buying back shares. companies are in good shape. the quality of the credit market, particularly the u.s. high-yield market has never been better. that is relevant because al