we have been talking about consolidation since the gfc. since the gfc.his is one of those points i'm going to want to laugh about in a few years time from now, but i actually think as we look at the barriers to entry in this space, if we look about the cost of running our businesses, if we think about the scale that we need to operate at, i think -- and the multiples that we are starting to see coming down, i think this could be an interesting time for consolidation. francine: but why has it been a long time coming? is it regulation, or there was just no appetite? robyn: i think -- i think when cash is free, it softens that. i think the moment where people need to deploy at scale in liquid markets has been something that has softened. if you look at trends, the trend has been in passive, it has been in private equity. if you think about the assets that no longer sit in the public domain, that has been our themes over the last 10 years. i think when private equity does not have quite as much cash, when that raising is harder, when lending is harder, these

so including , the gfc. so if we look at that from 2003 to 2019, we saw that the average positive absorption of office space during that period of time was approximately 1,000,000ft■!s, a year. so if i told you that we needed to lease 18,000,000ft■!s to get to 10% vacancy, it's a pretty easy scenario to say i need to lease approximately a million or a little bit more of positive absorption per year. sure. now that is the base case, though i think there are much more unique and creative opportunities that san francisco can look at and we have right in front of us. and that's what these mayoral candidates are doing tonight, including the current mayor. london breed. are you bullish on the city? are you optimistic that if i speak with you in five years, a lot of this will be much better? 100% as, san francisco resident, i live in lower pacific heights with my family. i feel that this is an opportunity for san francisco, not just for our real estate developers, but for the entire city. we need to create a place

who will be watching it will be yours truly and michaela lee in his folder in washington, i'm here at gfc joins me now from washington. it is um. yeah, the last time these 2 men were in the same room was i think, october 2020 at their last debate times of course have changed. so presidential debates, the rules of new audience this time, very structured. they have to both be on their best behavior. i mean, i know you may be rolling your eyes here, but i will this be a night of just political performance for the world to watch as well. have friends, you can watch me tonight before and also the debate as i'm rolling. my eyes is will of course, continue our coverage until tomorrow morning, your time in berlin road, while many international views might hold the policies and topics like the support of ukraine or the commitment was made. all the current situation in europe, even a will play a major role. it will ultimately come down to how undecided voters will feel off to. to night. donald trump has, in my opinion, a good chance of winning the debate if he can avoid being too aggressive, as thi

markets by surprise saying that private credit may have some similarities to the mortgage market in the gfczing everyone in the financial space. he's making it a point that even though this is a thriving market, some of the deals may be too complex and they may not be worth the ratings they have been getting by credit agencies. where are the warning signs in this market, especially as these deal structures get more complicated. >> first of all, when you construct a private equity, you shouldn't rely too much on private credit. i think it's important that the vast majority of it comes from operational initiatives and by scaling the country through operations and the growth in new geographies and new sectors, etc.. and you should not rely on just trying to create an economic equation that on paper works just because you have access. i think some fuel construction has been made with that and that's probably less healthy or long-term valuation. i do not think at this point in time we have a systemic problem. we are seeing new entries come into the private credit market and they need to figure o

post-gfc everybody is trying to be the next great bear and call the top. everyone rushes to 1999 as if nothing happened before. i'm tired of making the analogy, if you view the chatgpt release in late '22, if you view it the same as the net scape ipo that was '95. there were five years of investment, profitability, capx, buildout that went on. unlike the '90s when you had ancillary companies that were trading on zero revenues, et cetera, you don't have that today. these companies are extremely profitable i'm making no comment about nvidia as an investment. they're outpacing the street by exponentially larger numbers it's impossible to keep up with what they're doing right now not the stock with standing, but you don't get 100% revenue growth every day. >> let's bring in another cnbc contributor, shannon as we get set to make the turn into the second half, how are you feeling about these markets? >> yeah, from an economic perspective i think we're, you know, from a fundamental outlook we are, you know, more optimistic than we were to start the year i think

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we're certainly doing a lot better than we were in the precovid gfc world and that would suggest if growth can grow faster policy rates may have to be higher for longer. we've thought all along that we're not going to see a major rate cutting cycle we're going to see a mid-cycle adjustment of 50 to 100 basis points, and that's probably it. >> kristen, you say that -- you said just a moment ago that we're experiencing in the labor market maybe a cooling, not a contraction. is what the fed is doing and saying today consistent with that view, that the economy and the labor market may be cooling? >> i mean, looking at the statement, i don't think -- very minimal things changed within the statement. but i think in the press conference this is going to be important. what data points does chair powell actually talk most about because yes, you had non-farm payrolls come in very hot but when you look at jolts, when you look at the ism surveys, right? that we've seen a slowing within the labor backdrop there. there's even some estimates that we could see revisions to non-farm payrolls. and so i thin

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i think the consumer delevered significantly after the gfc.e corporate side, places like private equity, commercial real estate, unprofitable tech. those are places that worry me more than the consumer. the consumer might whine a little bit and is rightly upset about inflation, but i don't think that's the source of major economic stumbling and that's why we've had eight great quarters of growth up until recently all above -- well above 2%, even while inflation was coming down dramatically. >> yeah. it feels like every day there's a new headline about dividend recaps or nav loans or something to that effect. so definitely something to keep an eye on, david. thank you. >> always a pleasure. >> a bit more than 40 minutes into the trading session. movers we're watching, solar edge shares are plunging. the company announced it may not receive more than 11 million it's owed from a client who filed for bankruptcy. any money the company does collect may only come after a significant delay. shares down some 70% on the year. boeing reportedly offering

note last week where they talked about the fact that we have this shock from covid, shock from the gfcbig piece in baron's over the weekend about gen z and their risk tolerance. you wind up in some of the most aggressive growth names. >> semis in particular look super overheated. the flows into the etfs has been massive. there's a lot of just, like, upside stampedes in nvidia and some of the related stocks, and that would make you say, wow, you know, the public's getting a little bit overexcited here about the stocks, but they're not getting overexcited about stocks. they're getting overexcited about those stocks. you see penny volume go up because you have the lottery ticket players involved. but everything else is just sitting out there. here's the thing, and sara, i've talked about this a lot of times. if the defensive -- pure, traditional defensive stocks were working really well, aside from walmart, you can't really find it. >> like consumer staples. >> and big pharma, aside from lilly, of course, it's not happening. >> we did have that environment for like 20 minutes in the last

so if we do get some sort of rapid sell off in a post regulatory gfc environment, are banks preparedch culls their hand? -- bill: i'm not sure that anyone wants to come into the market if things are bad. the capacity of the primary dealers to provide support to the treasury market in size is obviously much diminished. the idea that somehow bank dealers can come in and support the market, i think you have to do that is limited. the primary dealer has to show up at the auctions. the fed is pretty focused on making sure that none of the auctions fail. non-failure is not necessarily the markets subdued. you can see longer tails, higher yields on auctions relative to existing securities. things could get out of hand very quickly. annmarie: you said this is not possible to -- dani: you said this is not possible to time, but does this translate to any duration appetite because this threat exists? bill: the outcome of the election might be relevant. now we don't know who the president is going to be. it is clear from published reports that the trump administration is pretty hostile to the fe