michael: gina martin at -- tom: gina martin adams with bloomberg intelligence.r of people at bloomberg, mohamed el-erian publishes and speaks of stagflation winds we may see coming up. right now, a victory lap. and they gave economics, it is tough to do this. we suggest at surveillance 369,000 plus the revision, that is the new 400,000. priya misra nailed the call today. 700 50,000 jobs per month of last 90 days. how that affect the jay powell calculation. priya: thanks for having me back. it is a weaker report, but if you look at the moving average and the other data, it is suggesting the recovery will be in fits and starts. the reopening will not be in a straight line. we think the increase is still very much on the table but we are calling for december taper, not a september taper. later this year they taper and we see inflation next year. we do not think they are hiking until the end of 2023. lisa: are you pushing back your expectations for the start of taper to december today based on this report? priya: no. we have been calling for december since we were l

gina martin adams to apprise earnings, revenues, and the points in between.rch note talks about a guesstimate of earnings. >> companies have baked in their estimates. analysts -- they are just a little bit cautious, they have remained cautious. the only risk is still about the margin lines. those are the most important lines to watch. it is about margins and how companies are contending with inflation pressures. tom: migrating down the income statement, you worry about margins. you have cost of goods sold. which line should viewers and listeners focus on moving from revenues down to ebita down to net income? >> you want to watch the components that tie into margin. those are issues you want to look at. it is cost of labor, all of the numbers we are going to get tomorrow are critically important. how much are you having to increase wages to entice employees back to the office or back to your firm at large. those are the critical questions. how are you contending with trade friction? it has been more extensive than many people anticipated. those are most import

the reason why was bringing this up as i thought the most interesting chart of the week was gina martin adamsing out the difference between ppi and the increase versus cpi and that gap has widened out to the most in years. this has been predictive of margins going forward and is sending a negative signal. what would you say to that in terms of a predictive feature? neil: i would say historically -- this will get technical. you are looking at different universes of companies. the ppi index is measuring the pricing power from a manufacturer or wholesaler. you are looking at a different universe of companies. it is not a one to one thing. when you live it up against profit margins it does not work that well historically. the margins will come down. i do not necessarily think that is the death knell for equity markets. they are at very high levels. i sympathize with the idea inflation will be stickier for longer. i do not think that is going to be something that is catastrophic. jonathan: i said you hate that word that is being thrown around, stagflation, in a period like the one we might be goin

jonathan: i know gina martin adams is doing some work on that. we need to talk about the goals -- the technicals. you pointed out to me that we are sitting right on top of that 50 day moving average for the s&p. tom: i am not a big believer in this. i hate the death cross or get i hate the golden cross. i don't do much moving average study. but the fact is it is pretty elegant. we are coming down not within a correction and testing some of these levels. jonathan: let's set the stage for you. equity futures up 12 on the s&p, advancing about 0.3%. microsoft out with a $60 billion buyback. in the context of its market cap, that is not a big one, but maybe that bails out the 50 day moving average for this s&p. tom: amazon is hiring more people than god. i looked at the warehouse yesterday, the median income in allentown, they are going in median wage. jonathan: yields in a basis point. euro-dollar stronger, $1.1824, advancing a couple of tenths of 1%. lisa: 8:30 a.m., the first read on september activity, september empire manufacturing survey coming