gita gopinath, imf chief economist, joins us now. talk me through the number one thesis behind that, and what is the downside risk to your outlook? gita: always a pleasure to join you. when you look at the projections and look at the advanced economy group, next year we predict advanced economies to be back to pre-pandemic. but if you look at any emerging and developing economies, we are looking at very significant scarring. even 10% relative to where they would have been. this is the divergence we are extremely worried about, and it has two factors. one is highly inequitable access to vaccinations, especially with low income countries, and the fact that policy support has been much larger in advanced economies as compared to many emerging and developing economies. guy: in terms of what is happening in the developed markets, the fear at the moment is that we are going into either a inflationary ward -- inflationary world or a stagflationary world. what gives you confidence that inflation is going to fade as we work our way through ne

gita gopinath, thank you so much for joining us today. we'll be right back. and we need insights across our data silos, but how? ♪ if i go there will be trouble ♪ ♪ ♪ wait, we can stay and go. hpe greenlake is the platform that brings the cloud to us. ♪ should i stay or should i go now? ♪ ♪ ♪ in 2016, i was working at the amazon warehouse when my brother passed away. and a couple of years later, my mother passed away. after taking care of them, i knew that i really wanted to become a nurse. amazon helped me with training and tuition. today, i'm a medical assistant and i'm studying to become a registered nurse. in filipino: you'll always be in my heart. >> brennan: the chaotic u.s. withdrawal from afghanistan and theital bab's victory there has left many questions about whether americans are actually safer now. until a few days ago, u.s. ambassador zalmay khalilzad was the biden administration's top envoy, negotiating directly with the taliban. he brokered the trump-era deal with the taliban in which the u.s. promises to withdraw all u.s. forces and he joins u

we're joined by gita gopinath, chief economist at the international monetary fund and the first womanaret. pleasure to join you. >> brennan: i'm so glad you did. let's start with the largest economy in the world, the united states. the i.m.f. said previously any change in the size of the spending deal president biden was putting together could have an impact on global growth. it's been shaved down from that original $4 trillion number. what will the impact be? >> margaret, to answer that question, we will need to know what the ultimate package looks like. because the original package, which was slightly over $4 trillion, the combined package of the infrastructure bill, and then the human infrastructure bill, the two of them were about slightly over $4 trillion. but that had spending measures, and it had revenue-raising measures, including taxes. and now the question is what happens in this new package? because if you're going to cut back spending and you also scale back tax increases, then the effect could be somewhat similar in terms of the net effect. but, again, we won't know until

the imf�*s first woman chief economist gita gopinath is set to return to harvard university in januaryhind the creation of a taskforce to deal with the covid—19 pandemic. gopinath also helped set up a team to address the climate crisis. the imf says it'll start looking for a replacement soon. chinese developer sinic holdings has defaulted on $246 million of bonds. it comes just days before a critical deadline for evergrande to pay some of its offshore bondholders. there's fear of the potential spillover effect on the chinese economy caused by a collapse of the property giant. the uk's financial conduct authority has fined credit suisse over £147 million for serious financial crime due diligence failings related to loans worth over us$1.3 billion, which the bank arranged for the republic of mozambique. these loans and a bond exchange were tainted by corruption. credit suisse has also agreed with the fca to forgive us$200 million of debt owed by the republic of mozambique as a result of these tainted loans. a new initiative to force the global shipping industry has been announced. spearh

chief economist get ago benefit spoke to us in the last hour -- economist gita gopinath spoke to westonhe last hour. gita: if you end up with very high inflation numbers, what about the comfort range of central bankers and of people in general? we are not seeing that yet. guy: investors are reflecting this as well. you certainly see this in the german investors into men survey that came out a little earlier on, the zew. you called at the zoo. -- called it the zoo. i call it the zed ew. the conversation is pretty straightforward. his gross fading, and is inflation picking up? it is hard in my mind to talk about stagflation when you have growth that is so far above potential, but maybe we go next year into a slower growth environment with higher inflation. let's figure this out. where are we? is this conversation about stagflation useful. bilal hafeez, macro hive ceo, joining us now. where do you stand? bilal: we are having lots of growth momentum. i think that is the clearest thing overall. certainly we are not seeing very high inflation and some segments of the economy, but at this stag

meaningful because i go back not just to divergence, but to what get ago vanessa calls -- to what gita gopinathalls dangerous divergence. it is something we should be keeping an eye on. i think the imf did a great service by introducing this notion of dangerous dispersion, and we should pursue it further. jonathan: let's pursue it a little more right now. if there is one thing to focus on, the spillover risk. what is the one thing your focus on right now? mohamed: i am focused on how capital is responding because the good thing for markets, and you're seeing it again today, is that the behavioral conditioning of the marketplace has been to buy the dip. it has been incredibly successful strategy, and we still see residual buying the dip inclination. the one thing i am really focusing on, can we understand the behavioral conditioning of the market based on how that is going to evolve? we know that it's -- that the fed is late to this issue, and that we risk a disorderly tightening of policy. i think most people see that as a risk. what we haven't yet understood fully is how the conditioning of ma