destabilizing global trends. welcome to "bloomberg daybreak" on this tuesday, august 27. i'm alix steel. david westin is off this week. the call is in the, it may be time to buy u.s. equities. nowhere.retty much go dollar-yen down by 3/10 of 1%. the yen still the outperform or. a bid into bonds. time now for the global exchange, where we look at the market moving news from around the world. joining us on the phone from hong kong is karen lee, from london, emma chandra, and here in new york is michael mckee. first we want to kick it off and hong kong come over the chief executive carrie lam spoke at a briefing following 12 straight weekends of protests in the city. lam: the government is confident we can handle a months long disturbance. i think it is a common goal and hong kong to handle this by ourselves. alix: bloomberg's karen lee has the latest. where are we at? carrie lam speaking publicly after another weekend of violence, saying they can handle unrest without assistance from chinese forces, and that she st

in global health. and the regulatory signs may take even longer. think in order to engage china, and that's why i bring up the tobacco control. if they see that this is an international problem and also engame themselves, engage with their interest in controlling the methamphetamine. and so create the alliance on combating the synthetic drugs. it might be easier to bring us to the priority list in addition to strengthen the regulatory system. and if i can say one word about the influence of collaboration, i think that's a good model because that collaboration shows that the chinese are using the data to w.h.o. and with the u.s. c.d.c. so i hope that can be another model. >> ok. we will move on. we're staying pretty much on time. i hope we have time for second round. commissioner bartholomew. >> thank you very much. and thank you to our witnesses. it's a very interesting -- very interesting -- i'm learning a lot. first a statement and then a couple of questions. and some of my questions will actually go

yields are low, but compared to global -- the global yield, u.s. yields still look reasonably attractive from a global perspective they still offer some yield at least. >> which part of the curve looks most attractive to you. if you say yields have only one way to go do you prefer the longer and? >> for our clients we are pretty neutral on duration. it is pretty difficult to invest with bond yields in your about the negative and the u.s. at 2%. we are pretty neutral but the direction is pretty clear at the moment. if you want to take some duration risk, if you want to take some leverage, at least you want to go out to the longer and the curve. >> what are you recommending to your clients? is this a time where you would rather focus on preserving capital than chasing returns? we got into that inflection point? arees for our client we basic claim making that call. here markets are still up 10% for the air. it is fine to look and lock in some gains given the glow outlook. bonds are not really attractive. basically as preservation of capital at this ju

what i am saying i am part of a global issue coverage guy. for example there is a genocide in british cameroon, that is west africa, where we have more then 10,000 people killed, 9000 homes burned, more than 1.5 million people displaced, more than 200,000 in nigeria, and continuous killing every day. there is a website you can go to, and you would not believe what is happening and the world , is silent. mark, how do you get these issues on the table of vision makers? guest: great question. and the situation to which you refer, the persecution of anglophones in cameroon is india a subject that i have covered twice at least over the last couple of years and most recently, a couple weeks ago, i had a senior official, a former top united nations official, and now head of a large international relief organization called the norwegian refugee council on the show to discuss what you are talking about. the persecution of anglophones and the conflict in the anglophone region of cameroon. one thing from the conversation that sticks out to me, that conf

it is import for the google -- global -- it is important for the global economy that trade discussions remain robust. tweets can go on and off two or three times a day. business confidence will not trumpe, even with you get and xi jinping becoming friends. business confidence will not improve right away, because they businesscipate that improves. institutionally, you need to set up for trade. baweja will stay with us. we need to talk about hong kong. we need to talk more about the ecb. vonnie: tech markets now. the dow up 1.25 percent. the s&p up 1.5%. the nasdaq up 1.05%. all socks on the dow higher except for chevron, dow 9/10 of 1%. -- alt stocks on the dow higher except for chevron, down 9/10 of 1%. this is bloomberg. ♪ live from new york, i am vonnie quinn. guy: from london, i am guy johnson. this is the european "bloomberg markets." let's get a check -- the uber first word news. familyigrants and a member were rescued from a spanish rescue ship anchored near southern italian island, but more than 300 others remain stuck on the boat. armsumanitarian ship open rescued 100 47 migran

and technologies require globalization right now when globalization is discussed it's usually discussed in economic terms of efficiency a labor costs production cheats etc and there is a legitimate benchmarks for business but not for government because the government has to consider a much broader impact what happens to society as factories move about what happens to the public health sector whether there is an opioid crisis do you think industrial democracies have managed globalization in their pro-social rather than corporate ways. they have not understood that the rules of the game have to be changed and we are still. living with historical legacy stuff industrialization because if you look at the social security systems education systems most of the most a legal frameworks in the investment world all of them are designed for industrial face of technology and now we're moving ahead and i think the problem is that our concepts are lacking behind what you're saying is that the government didn't do enough to create new jobs to compensate the schools to make sure that people are not taki

global warning. war is simply foolish. again edges higher after president trump negotiations with china may be called off. and a tense weekend of protests in hong kong. there are new warnings about the economy. let's get you started with a quick check of the markets. we ended the friday session in the u.s. we some pressure with u.s. stocks sinking as the u.s.-china trade tensions increased. there was such a wild roller as though you on ended the week down half a percent. it is worth noting it was down almost more than 1% at one point, after president trump says the talks with china could get canceled for next week. still, it pared back the earlier declines after we heard from a white house official that suggestions that the u.s. might not do business with huawei anymore, they walked back the comments. semiconductors were some of the biggest losers in friday's session. the nasdaq down 1%. u.s. futures at the moment gaining 0.1%. all eyes now on asia on this monday as we have markets out of action on holiday. that's right. i

it has global appeal.na where it is a huge hit, and hasbro is trying to break into the market of content to stabilize their ties and become a farce and that kind of market. -- force in that kind of market. scarlet: there could be competing bidders. what are you hearing? maria: they have other come -- benedikt: they have other companies that have looked at this and it may become a real opportunity. we are not hearing anything yet, but i tv was one of the suitors. this might attract private equity companies. they are on a roll and buying a lot of assets. this might not be over yet for hasbro. for hasbro, this has been a long hedged dream to move into content to become something more like disney. they have the transformers, the toy business, my little pony. they have managed to franchise those out to media companies and with peppa pig they can keep it in the house. nejra: thanks to benedikt kammel. lucy, you pointed to u.k. appetite. globally, is this a good environment for mna given low borrowing costs? lucy

beyond that, what happens to global assets and global stocks and bonds. china may sell town from its pressurey holdings clearly is a major event. i think stock markets are the weaken.t are going to will that cause them to pull back. >> of course, time and again, he wants a weaker dollar and a stronger dollar. people are talking about possible intervention. now, does that seem likely by the u.s.? >> it is sri clear. -- ople are skeptical indiscernibley > in the past, we mad the g-7. so people should not try and fade in the interventions and by dollars and i disagree with that. and america has. nd intervention could cause -- [indiscernible] >> where dose trump want the dollar to be? >> and clearly he wants help if the fed. and u.s. is intervening in the ..s. markets and harder >> it's interesting we have the rmer fed chief calling trump to end the threats and he wanted the fed to to do something in response to what is happening in the trade war, what should they be doing? what can they do and what should should they be doing? and already when they cut rates

global growth. i think that dynamic, which we in a more extreme way in 2015 and 2016, potentially gets started with this kind of depreciation, so that is the concern and that's why markets are so focused on how are authorities are willing to let it go in this case. david: great stuff there. we had to gdp number out of the philippines, five point 5%. we have an exquisite interview by the way with the governor himself. by the way earlier this week, he talked about 50 basis points and that might be it. that will come tomorrow after the central bank decision later today. rishaad: let's get a look at the first word news with su keenan in new york. su: we begin with trump and the fed. president trump bashing the fed once again. he fired off a string of tweets calling for bigger and faster and he wrote about confidence when things can be dealt with easily, adding that the u.s. does not understand how this gives continuing with other countries. he also said the fed is too proud to admit its mistakes of acti

are these more bright spots in the global economy?you seeing more of that growth trajectory? sonal: when we look at the entire asia-japan landscape, indonesia and philippines, the standout is they are big performers. domestic demands are not exposed, for instance. importantly, from a medium-term perspective, because you are looking for high potential reform prospects, these countries tick all the boxes. haslinda: i want to touch on singapore. the data out of the country not looking good. a double-digit construction for the fifth consecutive month. will the country fall into a recession? the government says no. sonal: it is a touch and go situation. what is concerning is the slowdown has spilled over into the domestic demand aspect. the we will be watching is aspect to which there is further deterioration in the job market, then this could have nonlinear effects. that is when the risk of a country takes a tipping point. all the open economies in the region -- not just singapore, but taiwan, korea, and to an extent malaysia are exposed.

these are global consequences.d be a tipping point that could trigger a very significant global slowdown. even a recession. juliet: fairly ominous words there from harvard university. we saw a pretty ominous sign in markets. you are seeing a rebound in hong kong stocks. earlier, we saw the hang seng form a death cross. we have seen a rebound over the course of this week of 1.7% for hong kong stocks. a lot of concern about the property developers about the retail stocks. it has been about four weeks prior to this week of very severe losses for the hang seng index. plus the climb. a death cross. that is pretty dramatic. thanks very much for that. investors wait for fed paid -- chair jay powell's speech today. it will be closely watched for clues on if the central bank sees july as a midcycle adjustment or the start of something bigger. chief economic advisor at allianz says and easing cycle might not be what the economy needs right now. >> for markets, it's really important. markets are looking for a cycle. they are

that should lead global economic activity.: the dollar has traded at extremes because the rest of the world isn't growing, and the u.s. consumer has been the only real agent of growth. as the rest of the world re-accelerates, as soon as the dollar goes down. i have to say, some of the normal relationship has been a bit distorted in recent months by this trade war. em should have already been outperforming dm, along with the gold price. guy: if the trade war gets worse , are you still confident that the re-acceleration process will carry on. chris: i think it will. guy: sections go on in september, then get applied more aggressively. may be the total levels go up. the chinese respond, rare earths, i don't know. but let's assume the escalation continues. chris: the base case is we are in an ongoing trade war that is not going to go away very quickly. ows, so ive ebbs and fl think that is the base case assumption. i think in that, you get more stimulus globally, so equity markets can benefit. guy: chris, stick around. chris watli

a global $3000.00 special report. starts on this monday sunday to. the world population is increasing the climate is changing it's getting warmer and there are going to be more and more places where you cannot road produce no problems we have to fix roads and the way to do that is to use the modern genetic modification methods to make better crawl it is a lot safer than anything we've done by traditional genetic modification you take one to lead you know exactly what it is you put it into another plant to come out exactly where it's grown i think we will be able to provide enough food for people by 2050 if we can make crops to grow one semi arrid conditions this will achieve a much greater stability in the food supply that we have at the moment. and. hello and welcome to the latest edition of arts and culture a legendary opera singer placido domingo faces allegations of sexual harassment we'll get more on that story and also coming up on today's program. in our series the british capital london has many famous landmarks but the tower bridge still tru

global health security for the u.s. may not be the same definition or understanding of the security of receiving treatment in other parts of the world but there is an issue for doctors most of you intelligence interview investigator may need certain things from the law enforcement in many different things. mixing civilians and civilian may not be the smartest thing to do. the intervention where these understandings are on what the front page for if i let the team that contributed to the investigation in the area where [inaudible] killed almost 1500 people during 2013. that would imply certain security and political us possibilities and health in the un making the case and raising which kind of people or patient sample and how to handle the sample and so on. the use of chemical weapons and muzzle where it's not only the clinical epidemiology to get these people in the proper care but how to preserve the fear and maintain fear of the healthcare workers which we run in the camps to drop and run. but also when you have a no

a global $3000.00 special report. starts august 19th some details of. the us post tariffs on chinese goods as beijing releases new figures it says show it shows the economy is still booming the slowest rate for 17 years. don't use the r word just yes for the 1st time in nearly 10 years germany's economy contracts is the golden decade of growth coming to an end for europe's economic problems. fungus wipes out the. experts say 95 percent of the world's banana production could be at risk. this is business. as well come the latest figures published by china show from its factories is growing albeit at its slowest rate for 17 years the impact of the trade war with the u.s. is taking its toll at home thought a white house decision to delay some toes the u.s. plan to slap on chinese products because of least some hope that tensions truth easing. the delayed tariffs if they'd hit in september would have been no laughing matter for ordinary americans for the 1st time they would have affected consumer products including toys clothing and electronics that's why pr

market, but also global markets.e are in a period that is different from the one i personally grew up in as a portfolio manager where you could make some long-term outlooks on the market. this is a market where the outlook can change within 140 characters. president trump. and that will change the earnings outlook for many companies out there, not only emerging markets, but also lower markets, so the investors will follow this. whatever the new news will be related to the trade deal will clearly create market softness. perhapswith tariffs -- on ae of path beyond path beyond the election, want .o talk about em we're seeing valuations coming u.s.out half of their counterparts, but we are seeing this perhaps not being reflected in the earnings growth. walk us through this now. >> absolutely. , valuations have never been necessarily a reason to buy -- for em. yet the look at the potential andings growth between em other markets around the world -- you have to look at the potential earnings growth. 2020 looks similar betw

rates are low, but it is reflectiveness global conditions. global conditions are weak. i'm not saying there are not circumstances in which i would be willing to ease. i just want evidence we are going into something that is more of a slowdown. if i'm growing at 2%, i'm not is concerned about that. of the twos one dissenters at the last meeting. we also saw george dissent at the last meeting. that is the first time fed chair stayed twohas dissenters. tomorrow we are going to get minutes from the fed meeting. we will get sentiment tomorrow. thursday and friday we have the jackson hole meeting. friday, jay powell giving his speech, possibly opening the door for more cuts. the 100 basis points donald trump is asked for? maybe that is part of the deal. deal.t of the art of the >> a new effort at dialogue. that is what carrie lam is promising to try to bring in and to more than two months of protest. the demonstrations begin over opposition to controversial extradition legislation, but have since morphed into a wider antigovernment movement, including calls for lam's resignat

demand -- a slowing global demand.f deflation in the manufacturing sector in china, that is expected to squeeze margins for these industrial profits amount we also see slowing investment from the proctor -- from the profit sector. not expected to be a pretty picture. thanks for that. for more on china's industrial malcolm scott is with us. we are expecting to see a contraction in july. how much of that is symptomatic of the trade war? malcolm: it is hard to distinguish what is symptomatic -- a techh slowdown slowdown. put the three together and there is not too much cause wrapped him. we had the pmi readings below that 50 level that mark mentioned in contraction for a few months. it worked up closer to 50 in the most recent rating but still below 50. the ppi, the industrial inflation numbers turning to deflation in the most recent rating. a pretty close correlation between the profits you can generate as an industrial company and the prices you can ask for that go through that. saying -- and seeing that slip into negat

time now for the global

wars threaten the global economy.ing us is rob waldner, invesco -- joining us is rob waldner, invesco chief fixed income strategist, and damian sassower. damian: it's growth and inflation, growth slowing, inflation remaining slow. they didn't do the full 50 basis points, which would have been pretty aggressive. is a little bit of give-and-take with where market expectations were. how much of this is it going to help our economy, and how much is it because everyone else is going down? rob: i think they have no choice because there's low inflation. inflation is under shooting targets, and i think the fed has set this bar globally which is, we central bank's have a big risk undershooting our target because if inflation continues to go down and goes to zero, you get japanification of the world. alix: so what do you do as an investor? you have almost -60 basis points on the bund yield, the curve continuing to flatten, and you have asian central banks cutting rates. do you think you want to go for some carry? rob: it is an

rowe price head of global multi-asset. this is bloomberg. ♪ david: wework has filed with the sec to go public, issuing their ipo. we have sonali basak here to talk about it. sonali: it is finally coming out. i would urge anyone who has a terminal to look at the top live blog. what we are not going to have today is the valuation we are looking for at $47 billion earlier this year, but people are expecting it to be a little lighter. taylor: talk to me about that valuation. saying, i was speaking with an analyst monday night who said it feels like it is a tech company, but this is a real estate company. what is it? asali: the idea of its a tech company is what they will be leaning on to sell. but people are looking at the acquisition cost, which looks ok , but the underlying cost and the growth rates are what people will be looking at right now. david: is anyone talking about a possible liquidity mismatch? they make long-term commitments on leases, but people can get out of their leases pretty quickly. sonali: you see it evol

and july is not alone. 2019 has been very warm globally.s among the four warmest for the month in question. and june has been the highest ever. this particular month has been warm to me this is not really the main point. main point is that not only this month has been warm last month was warm , this month has been warm last month was warm, all the months in 2019 we re very was warm, all the months in 2019 were very warm in terms of comparison with other years. results are based on billions of measurements from satellites, ships, aircraft and weather stations all across the world. these latest figures are part of long—term trends in rising global temperatures to the computer models of the impact of climate change predict that more summer climate change predict that more summer temperature records are likely to be broken all across the world more often. individual heat waves cannot be pinned to human created global warming. but increased in extremes of weather that we are beginning to see is in line with the predictions made by planet change

recession when what is pushing it over the edge are these global factors and this global slowdown. we finally saw this yield curve briefly invert, but i was talking to a few folks today that said it probably does not change anyone's economic thesis that it dips down to negative one basis point, but it will be interesting to see what happens from here. we have retail sales out of the u.s. and so far the u.s. consumer has been the bright spot of the u.s. economy, so that will be important to watch. shery: thank you so much for that. when fear is driving the market, what do you do? let's ask the founder and cio of oka capital partners. great to have you with us. we talked about the yield curve 2/10.ion, the does this change your strategy, or do you need to see more severe and prolonged aversion to adjust your portfolio? >> our portfolio gets adjusted over time and kind of naturally as the stocks that we bought low are high enough and we think the growth potential the fed reached when you sell them and put that capital to work again. if anything, i think these sudden drops really give

the global governing.what are the u.s. china collaboration on global health? the majority of the collaboration so far has been focused on the infectious diseases and within china. the global aids program helped set up the first cdc u.s. cdc office in beijing. in 2004 the chinese national influenza center and the u.s. cdc initiated the collaborative agreement to build capacity in influence china. in my view this is a long-term collaboration that provided sustained data sharing research exchanging benefits both countries as well as who and should be considered as a model for the future collaborations. in terms of collaborations in developing countries so far there are not so many. in the previous administration the u.s. cdc has reached out to chinese cdc and joint sponsor five cdc centers in africa. this is as i see as the start of this type of collaboration. otherwise u.s. and china programs have mostly parallel in these countries and they are quite different in terms of philosophy and approach. on paper, c

the series of global 3000 on d w and online. mean something nice for entire streams of jurors or dealing with any and then i killed many civilians i mean national coming including my father one day when i was a student i wanted to build a life for myself. but suddenly life became alledge kind of. providing insights global news that matters d. w. made for mines. will be in western ukraine at a very special concert remembering the famous jewish although yours if colt also coming up a top fashion photographer who says beauty alone doesn't interest. of australia. and has the relationship between the germans and america during nowadays we'll find out in. what. you think. the ukrainian conductor oxana lead knave is definitely want to watch in the classical music scene she's receiving accolades from musicians and critics alike and this in a profession that is still predominantly male apart from being in great demand around the world she started a festival in western ukraine and this year is opened with a special concert to remember the

>> the dollar is the global currency and the u.s. share of the global currency is reducing. the dollar share of payments, not just financial payments but a lot of payments between countries that have nothing to do with the u.s. are in dollars. and what happens in situations like we're in today where the u.s. economy to its credit is relatively strong is doing better and the fed is doing the right thing which is, they have adjusted policy and tightened policy as it was strengthening and now the fed is doing the right thing. but they have adjusted policy relatively strong. that means rest of world policy is tighter than it needs to be and that feeds back on the u.s. economy in a way that ultimately slows this economy and it leads to a sub standard outcome and in a world where you only have limited policy space, it's a dangerous place to be so, the trade issues we're talking about are reinforced by the structure of the monetary system you asked a big question but now the issue is, you don't just jump to something new overnight. and what we want in a multi-polar world. i think w

global growth is slowing.et's get ahead of this. let's move now. reduce the probability of having to do more later. kathleen: are the downside risks materializing? you just have the bank of new zealand manufacturing index, posted the first drop below 50. it is signaling contraction. been a lot around the uncertainty. been good.as our government fiscal position is very good. . the government is outstanding. global trade uncertainty has held everyone back from investing. it is the business confidence in here.vestment that is kathleen: people are already talking about the next cut. some thing like 25 basis points. are they on the right track? is that the decision you have to make? went to cut rather than if? don't: no, we certainly -- to quote ever it takes. a positive are in position. exchange rate has come up with ,elatively competitive particularly against the u.s.. likewise, we have government fiscal policy spending government debt. it is a good position. we can afford to watch, wait, and observe what is happ

just comparing the european single market to globalization and there a little bit sarah. the biggest difference is the single market is heavily regulated there are some compensatory rules and contents of terror mechanisms globalization is not do you think global ization as it stands today needs to be if not regulated than at least coordinated i think we need scum and rules and rules that's the most important thing so that you cannot. eat with it's ate with damaging the environment or or not respecting the human rights and social rights of the people that is something we i think that global community has to be able to solve these problems and that's that's creating opportunities for fairer. one that also discourage companies from sunday jobs overseas because if you are concerned about environment if you are concerned about. rules that it makes sense to you to keep your production base closer to the areas where they where they could to consume but but i was at nokia for example if you look at the prices of mobile phones if you wanted to. come of this size mobile phones pric

share of the global economy has been reducing. the dollar share of payments -- not just financial assets by payments, a lot of countries that have nothing to do with the u.s. make payments in dollars. the u.s. to its credit is relatively strong, doing better. the fed has been doing the right thing. they have adjusted policy, tightened policy as it was strengthening. now they're doing the right thing, but they adjusted and it is relatively strong that means the rest of the world policy is tighter than it needs to be, and that feeds back on the u.s. economy in a way that ultimately slows this economy. it leads to a substandard outcome. in a world where you only have limited policy space, it is a dangerous to be. so the trade issues we're talking about are reinforced by the structure of the monetary system now, you asked a big question so give me a second. >> i have. all right. >> now, the issue is you don't jump to something new overnight, and what we want in a multi polar world, think we would agree we have european engine, the u.s

and china that's already rattling the global economy has been taken to a new level by the u.s. president as leaders of the g. 7 nations prepare to gather in france donald trump increased tariffs even more on hundreds of billions of dollars worth of chinese goods at the order that u.s. companies to pull out of the country will talk more on the g. 7 at the moment but we begin with a report from al-jazeera is heidi joe castro in washington. the trade war between the world's 2 largest economies just boiled over in the span of 280 characters on friday just after u.s. stock markets closed u.s. president donald trump announced via twitter starting on october 1st the $250000000000.00 of goods and products from china currently being taxed at 25 percent will be taxed at 30 percent additionally the remaining $300000000000.00 of goods and products from china that was being taxed from september 1st at 10 percent will now be taxed at 15 percent this was trump's retaliation after beijing announced a few hours earlier that china will tax an additional $75000000000.00 worth of u.s. goods also s

economy and global recession, are we there? scott: i don't think we are quite there. the fed demonstrated they are willing to go to zero lower bound as a policy and add further stimulus. a sizable gapbe away from being out of pricing themselves and pushing risk assets although we will acknowledge that is frontloaded. lisa: quickly. >> there is more policy room. and: we get a market check where bonds have not been this week, yields lower, significantly. 30 year yields near an all-time low, 10 year yields close to the lowest since 2016, to your yields chugging lower as people expect the federal reserve to cut rates. the final spread, the week ahead featuring a slew of economic data including u.s. inflation results. this is "bloomberg: real yield." lisa: this is "bloomberg: real yield." time for the final spread. over the next week ppi numbers out of japan, germany, and spain. and germany announcing second-quarter gdp plus, we get u.k. cpi and china reporting industrial production and retail sales numbers, to rate decisions on thu

a global $3000.00 special mccool. starts aug 19th on. greetings from berlin and welcome to arts and culture well today we'll meet a composer who invites us to experience music as a physical presence rebecca saunders will be joining me in the studio and we've also got these stories lined up. in a new series on european landmarks where you start with one that encompasses the very essence of france and the city of light the eiffel tower in paris. and taking up some slack at the end of the show get ready for the amazing feats of a stony and slack planner. well she's one of the most compelling composers working today london born rebecca saunders who lives and works here in berlin and her competent compositions turned the whisper the shimmer and funder of sounded to something almost tangible and she invites us to focus on minute creations of timber and of course the symbiotic relationship between musician and instrument challenging to play and fascinating to listen to.

global spillover from the u.s. chinatown just putative realizes investors seek safety in central banks and supplies right. and shipping shrink in the summer heat from a new defines the. customers across north africa complain about prices. let's do business africa is becoming more self-sufficient another homegrown car maker has joined the race to industrialize parts of the continent kira motors is uganda's 1st attempt at producing vehicles will have to take on the global auto giants 1st in a slice of the huge african market. this is one of your. visions. 55 years ago. the fight has been made by young. days when. you know there was nothing but the day that come over it was exciting for us to know that we have. one now. and then that it's possible to make things. it is uganda's 1st come on for exciting project and funded by the government the young people behind it ive the face of a generation that the government hopes will drive uganda's economy 20 industrialized part we believe that uganda actually has a lot of you

ofning us now, the cia of global equities at allianz global investors. do you think what we are seeing is a little bounce after so much concern over plummeting yields this week? >> in short, yes. change is not going to the trajectory of what markets will be doing and after a difficult week, you get a little bounce. we are still in for a bout of volatility. it is that time of year but on top of that, you got the volatility caused by the trade uncertainty and uncertainty over what the central bank will be doing. we anticipate a lot of volatility. matt: when you look at the inversion of the yield curve, and historically it looks like a pretty good predictor of recessions, does it look like that will be true again this time or do you think things are different? both ways.an argue things are different in some ways because even the central bank suspension in bond markets, but at the same time, we've got the slowing down of pmi everywhere around the world. growth is surprising on the downside so there is increased recession risk. whether we get there is up for

if we take a look at recent imf report on global economic outlook, asia represented 46% of global gdp on a purchasing power parity basis compared with 20% for europe and just 18% from north america. if you look at the growth rates in asia, 6.6% subjective growth rate of gdp and asia compared with less than 2% for north america and europe in 2020. these are-- this is imf data. and then look at population, about 60% of the world's population lives in asia. and asia is an incredible story of growth and economic development over the past couple of decades. and in particular, that has been aided and abetted by goods and economic policies, the global trade regimes and particularly by infrastructure. and the growth has enabled economic development and poverty alleviation in really dramatic fashion. and unfortunately the expectations for growth and asia over the coming decade, unfortunately, or fortunately is dependent on infrastructure investment. the unfortunate part is adb said something like 1.7 trillion per year is needed. >> trillion with a t? >> trillion with a t. >> in asia over the n

-- in global yields.athleen: in the interview, he thinks there could be a lively debate on the interest rate cut. it will be interesting to see what the other heads of the fed say when you step back. powell gave donald trump what donald trump has been saying the economy needs, opens the door to a rate cut, and's stock rally turns into a big stock decline. maybe the president is misunderstanding, goes ahead -- on the fed side. that is something the fed has to with. the more trump does that, the more they have to cut. who knows. paul: kathleen hays, thank you for joining us. still to come, greg sorry and joins us. he said trade is the most important factor in the markets for the next 12 months. we will look at how this could play out. this is bloomberg. ♪ paul: we have asian futures unsurprisingly pointing down quite a bit since the trade war between china and the u.s. ramps up. seeing how investors should be playing volatility. we have the sorry a strategic partners founder with us. that was quite an inter

is a global recession around the corner wall street appears to things so investors ditched stocks on wednesday for safe haven bonds after data from china and germany point to a slowdown. also on the show argentina's president backs off his strict austerity program after getting walloped at the polls but is that enough to convince recession weary argentinians. and a deadly fungus wipes out but end of crops in colombia experts say 95 percent of the world's banana production could be at risk. this is your business report i'm stephen beard's in berlin thanks for joining us u.s. markets plummeted today on new fears that a global recession is approaching with the dow and nasdaq index is both losing more than 3 percent driving the worries new data from china and germany suggesting both economies are slowing let's start with china factory output there grew in july by the lowest rate in 17 years showing an uptick of only 4.8 percent analysts had forecast a 6 percent rise retail sales also rose less than expected a sign of weakening demand among chinese consumers the data suggests that the glo

that's a concern for global growth.ra: what's interesting as well on the duration question, we have allen higgins onset with us. i asked him, would you want to add to duration at this point? he said, that might've gone too far. that's another interesting point of view. today, we are asking the question on mliv, how serious is the u.s. yield curve inversion for assets? you can join the debate, reach out to was in the mliv team on your bloomberg. hong kong is facing another threat amid antigovernment protests. we've learned several chinese firms are reconsidering ipo plans in the city because of the unrest. that's according to bankers working on the deal. this risk is undermining hong kong's position as a financial gateway. chinese companies have raised nearly $9 billion this year by listing in the city. joining us now is bloomberg steals reporter who has more details on this scoop. thank you for joining us. our companies really reconsidering their appetite for deals in hong kong? >> very much so, nejra. thank you for hav

also, you have the global growth slowdown.or driver is china's slowdown, which, in my view, is totally structural. i think the market has been getting it wrong, that they have overlooked china's high tolerance of growth slowdown because they wanted the growth to be more sustainable. they don't want to have a massive stimulus to the economy to have very superficial growth. they want to have sustainable slower growth. actually, i don't think they want panic, even if gdp growth is slower than 6%. i do think that is the major risk for global investors if they get that wrong. the aspect of the trade talks, i do think the market also gets it wrong because previously, we have been easily the u.s. could win the trade war, but right now, the situation actually flipped. i think china may have more bargaining power than the market estimates. shery: some fundamental issues there. more ahead on "daybreak australia." this is bloomberg. ♪ paul: a prominent chinese capitalist expenses new venture to go public in the next year of years with re

this might look like a hobby or entertainment to many but eastport is taking off globally it's about to become a $1000000000.00 industry here in shanghai site of the international or t.i. the annual championship for online game dota 2 the prizes for winners totaling $33000000.00 breaking the previous record set last month but as each sport grows so are health concerns for these young players many are teenagers like kyle gears dorf a 16 year old american who last month picked up $3000000.00 for coming 1st in the fortnight world cup the highest ever individual win for an east board event the concerns are for players physical health with the hours and hours of sitting and repetitive motion and also mental given the high stress of big money on the line not to mention millions of people watching each and every move burnout and anxiety are an increasing issue. under age eastport betting is also a concern a recent u.k. study estimates that globally 45 percent of tweets about eastport betting reaches young people below the legal minimum age you know you know kind of e.g. is one of the leadin

global growth has been weakening.he trade policy uncertainty affecting many economies and are the central banks out of bullets? that's the concern of mohamed el-erian >> it's actually a very rational reaction a rational reaction to concerns about global growth after the numbers we've gotten this week about policy ineffectiveness by central banks, about liquidity being not as deep as people have, and a sense we entered a deglobalization phase. put all these things together, what you're seeing is a very normal market reaction >> we learned today that german growth contracted in the second quarter. joining three other european countries including the uk, sweden and norway that have shrunk their economies this year china's growth is slowing, hit by tariffs and other issues. the fear is that tariffs and weak global growth wash up on these shores to be sure ture, it could be ths economy overcomes this the economy is growing at a decent 2% pace, but markets are strongly expecting further interest rate cuts from the federal r

we have seen the correction in global equity markets ta ke correction in global equity markets take placee developed world and the us and uk but also in the emerging world. to put it into context, the ftse is down 6% in the last couple of weeks but still up on the year to date about seven or 8%. global equities, because of the us, are up about 1a%. in the context of the full year, it is a small blip. it has been a turbulent week, particularly in terms of the bond markets, hasn't it? yes, this is all about the fear of recession, we talked about this earlier in the programme, in terms of the inverted yield curve, this isjust a market indicator that could point to a recession but we have seen an economic slowdown in the last few months. this is not new. we have seen a months. this is not new. we have seen a lot of economic data, whether it is the manufacturing sector or the services sector, all showing signs of weakness. this is just a continuation of the theme. and continuing the theme, a danish bank has launched the world's continuing the theme, a danish bank has launched the worlds that i

won't no longer appropriated into global infrastructure offerings global forecast.that's a challenging place to be. it's a real shift with bigger bucks involved. more money at risk, more money to be made with weather extrem extremes, before it was unheard of, they would spend the $20 million on a supercomputer model. now those dollar values seek more reasonable because of the greater climate risk. and more capabilities. i think it creates a business opportunity and there have been private forecasters for a wild. the shift would be if it's no longer about a global pool of data taking the data for better forecasts. it's instead about fragmentation of new kinds of data that's not been shared. it's uncharted territory and had something a lot of the weather people, the representatives are taking part in that and it's something that the administration pushes forward to make sure these new companies are able to be profitable. that is the, it's not unique emphasis but a unique desire but it's a unique emphasis. it's shifted to say we want to make sure these new companies ca

global equities likewise, best back-to-back since january globally.ift yesterday. 7:00 a.m. yesterday it was all to do with china. it seems to be today the narrative seems to be around trump calling for more rate cuts , more easing, lambasting the fed. on the counter side, a 90 day extension from huawei. is that protecting your own regional areas? either way, the equity market trending a little bit higher. we are going to go into bond issuing season in germany, and that's going to be a litmus test in terms of where you want to be. probably more bullish on the euro as a consequence of stimulus. a small backup in yield, but nothing momentous. italian risk front and center. te lose?seppe con will salvini take us into the election? you have fiscal issues around that. of theet you to the rest markets. i will handed over to juliette saly in singapore. juliette: asian stocks higher for a third session on those gains you mentioned on wall street. a slight reprieve in the trade dispute. the nikkei closing of the session about 0.6%. we begin studying. the hang

we have now the globalization and the dollars ation which would be. superseded by the age of individual sovereignty and the way to fund that is through bitcoin if you have your keys it's on confiscated all and it's hard money so this is the 1st time ever in the history of humans that you've had an unconscious capable hard money available to individuals and this will give rise to a globe of individuals sovereign individuals and the nation state will subside and the role of money will collapse and we'll have a new era we at kaiser for have been covering this emergence of this new era you know sometimes make incorrect observations because you're only predicting what could possibly happen but we've been remarkably accurate in terms of our assessment of what was actually going on we coined it for example global insurrection against banker occupation and the banker occupation is really the central bank occupation where it was. rigged the system was riggs and the fact that they could print money and give it to their buddies on wall street to dispense to us i

global trade is in recession. this isn't about the u.s. global outlook.the global environment, so i would fives-30'sput on a steepener. of tdpriya misra securities, thank you so much. barry knapp will be staying with us. coming up, it's a warning from germany's central bank. europe's largest economy potentially preparing stimulus measures as it prepares for a crisis. we discuss that next. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ viviana: this is "bloomberg daybreak." u.s. commerce secretary wilbur ross says the u.s. will renew the huawei waiver for 90 days. he announced the move on foxbusiness despite president donald trump calling the company a "national security threat." bluescope approving a 700 million dollars expansion of its northstar project in ohio. each year, the investment will give the company and asked right hundred 50,000 metric tons of u.s. steelmaking capacity. tesla is now offering no contract packages as part of its solar relaunch. musk executive elon tweeting, "it is like having a money printer on your roof." this comes after the third consecutive quarter

of global trade? that model, which germany has done so well out of? if so, do we need to rethink the way the german economy is structured? marcel: you are absolutely right. germany's economic model is an expert led model. if the trade conflicts persist many more years, this will hit germany very hard. it very much depends on whether these trade conflicts, the currency conflicts are a global issue or not. the german economy structurally is very sound. you have record employment, fairly good profit margins for the companies, so they are competitive globally. the government with a lot of room to maneuver. domestically, structurally the german economy is sound. the answer to your question it depends on how the global trade conflict will persist. is it something that can be solved over the next few years? matt: how strong is the german governing coalition? it was interesting that olaf scholz, a social democrat, was so closely towing the line with angela merkel. those parties don't seem to be getting along

tina fordham, city global -- citigroup global political analyst, joining us now. german economy is in real trouble at the moment. green bonds are interesting because it also satisfies a number of political objectives. tina: i think it is a very shrewd move on a number of levels. you are right, germany is constantly criticized for not spending enough. some fiscal stimulus coming out of germany would be very welcome. , asthe politics of the move i say, are very shrewd. the green party the best in germany, and green parties across europe. it was really the untold story of the european parliamentary election. it is not the first time that the cfu would have -- that the cdu would have eaten the lunch, so to speak, of the green party. if you look at voters, particularly in germany, addressing climate change is the top concern, more than the economy or other factors. so that could be very smart politically and economically. guy: the french are certainly paying attention to it as well. let's ask a broader question. global bond market has been in freefall of late. there's

global conditions are weak. don't think there is a circumstance of which we will be willing to ease, we want to have evidence that we are going into something that is more of a slowdown. growing at 2%, not concerned. >> crunching the numbers on the trade war. the growing uncertainty could lower gdp by sixpence of 1% in 2021. a scenario where there is no trade war. that would be double the direct impact of the tariffs themselves and the equivalent of $585 billion off the imf estimated global gdp of $97 trillion in two years. the u.k. prime minister boris johnson is planning a nationwide pr campaign to prepare voters for a non-deal brexit. previous briefings have been highly technical and aimed at his business but government sources say the new drive will be user-friendly. ministers have been warned that small companies are not ready for a hard brexit, because of the extra paperwork they will face. >> after failing to negotiate a brexit deal that would protect jobs and living standards, boris johnson is driving th