there's a public spat between goldman and jpmorgan. goldman puts out a report.ot of people inside jpmorgan are quite frankly pissed about this. >> furious. >> furious. they put out a report that said jpmorgan should be broken up. okay? because in separating the sum would be better for shareholder than keeping it together. jamie dimon said here's why that's not the case. behind the scenes what's interesting is there are bankers making the case goldman telling us to break up. goldman is doing that because they need to grow. they are out of proprietary trading because of the dodd-frank regulations, got to get rid of private equity line, they need another source of revenue to keep everything stabile. they can only do trading for clients, you can hedge yourself and trade from the standpoint. gets complicated. that's the only way you can trade and they can do investment banking which is cyclical. so they need a stable source. what do they need to do? goldman has talked about this, they need to buy a wealth management company, a brokerage company or an asset manager. s

>> i directly cover goldman sachs and also morgan stanley. let's talk about goldman sachs.aised you know, they do raise the dividend yearly and they bought back $6 billion of stock which helps on earnings and return on equity. >> ken, i don't expect you to cover credit suisse or ubs but the tectonic plates are shifting. lost a fifth of the value in a session in a quarter, swiss franc's done what we know what it's done how does it affect wealth management industry? how far does it stretch to the names that you cover, do you think? what's the color here? >> in the case of episodic events like swiss franc, for the businesses of goldman and morgan stanley, these are very small businesses. they're larger for banks like deutsche bank and onces you've mentioned. i don't believe it's going to have either a direct financial or a confidence impact particularly on u.s. wealth management. >> finally, ken, a big discussion about legal costs and the degree to which analysts should be separating them from corporating models some say analyst whose do that should be ashamed. do you agree. >

that is the genius of goldman sachs. focused on both areas because you never know which business is going to be strong at a particular time. with oil going down the tubes in the fourth quarter without people expecting it, traders get hurt. but they are going to rebound. there is no question. you need both groups. it is a very different management problem. you have to pay people less but you cannot lop them off because you're going to need them. >> we will take a quick break here from you, bill. we have breaking news, december construction data coming out. scarlet fu has numbers. >> we got the drop for the number of december -- for the month of december. .1 of 1% following a gain of 1.3% in november, which was the biggest increase since may of 2010. there is a give back as manufacturing slows down at the end of the year. in terms of impact on financial markets, we are not seem to bank much. -- we are not seeing too much. they are slightly lower and they continue to decline, about .3 of 1%. we see low yields as well. >> co

goldman stock is down, you would be skeptical about goldman's quality of earnings. point out morgan stanley reports next week, on one of the most reliable indicators is james gorman's posture around the firm. if he walks around the firm like he has the biggest you know what in the world, this is true, people think i'm making this up, this is followed inside morgan stanley and he's not quite straight up, he's a little bit. he doesn't have a total, you know, he's walking a little bit like flaccid, i guess you could say. so they think -- >> kind of how when you're upset your knuckles drag on the ground. >> he's walking around flaccid. it is going to be earnings next week. got that out of the way, goldman sachs out of the way. i'm sure james loves when i talk about his posture. and for people who hate herbalife. this is how liz and i, i want to get a picture of this. liz and i are going to survive on herbalife protein bars, we hate the food. liz: i'm not a fan of potatoes and meat and cheese and the schnitzel. >> herbalife may be the biggest pyramid scheme but protein b

and we could only guess as to why not. >> victim ronald goldman's father, fred goldman, had his own ideasought quit following him on the freeway. do what you would do with any other fleeing felon. he's a fugitive. he's running. take him down. i don't mean take him down, shoot him and kill him. stop him, arrest him. >> when you were meeting with other members of the lapd as this was going on, tell me how you were preparing and strategizing for, number one, possible gunfight, shoot-out or number two, possible surrender? >> when we had those discussions it was a dynamic situation whether or not we should do some type of intervention. it could have gone sideways instantly. he could have jumped out of the car and it could have required the officers on scene to protect themselves. it could have resulted in a shooting. >> still free and leading police on this bizarre slow speed chase, o.j. does something unexpected. he calls his deceased ex-wife's family from the back seat of the bronco. did o.j. at any time call you? >> i did talk to him. i said, listen, you've got two kids. then i give the pho

goldman sachs says oil has two state lower for longer. that is the way the market will be rebalance. gas prices have fallen $.27 a gallon. the average price of a gallon of regular gas is $2.20. it has fallen below $2 a gallon in 17 states. a breakthrough in finding out what happened to the air asia plane. one of the black box recorders that may tell what happened in the final moments before the plane crashed two weeks ago. >> the black box is composed of 2 parts, a flight data recorder and the cockpit voice recorder. the one thing we managed to find is the flight data recorder. >> the wreckage is 105 feet below the service of the java sea. the crash killed 162 on board. >> the biggest crowd in modern history in france, 3.7 million people marched to mark the terror attack. french president francois hollande proclaimed paris as the capital of the world today. john kerry will fly to paris at the end of the week. that may be an answer to criticism that the u.s. only sent in ambassador to yesterday's march. the detroit auto show, gm is introdu

who was ron goldman? why was he there?s the lapd inspected the crime scene at south bundy drive, they discovered a bloody glove. >> of course, the interesting thing is that it was a left glove, bloody trail tailing in conjunction with footwear impressions going west. >> officers were dispatched to o.j.'s home on north rockingham avenue, to inform him about his ex-wife's murder. o.j. and nicole had met when she was a teenager, and were togethert for most of the next 17 years. a sometimes rocky are relationship with allegations of abuse. they divorced in 1992. it was at o.j.'s home where detective lange made the call to nicole'sle family to break the tragic news. >> nicole's dad answered. >> what did you say? >> i said, mr. brown, i regret to inform you that your daughter has died. she has been killed. and right away, i heard denise start screaming. >> i remember it. i remember it as if it was yesterday. >> nicole's sister, denise brown, was also on the call. she say ths that she had no dou that o.j. was the killer. >> i sai

goldman said u.s. crude would need to stay around $40 throughout the first half of the year before shale investment would have to be reduced. >>> a lot of people criticize the ratings agencies of being too reactive not predictive. this is a great example of that. they haven't put russia on junk status yet. the question moving forward over the force of q 4 it was down to the oil price. i wonder whether sankctions will hurt them. >> i would argue perhaps more so the oil price given that 50% of the revenue comes from oil. aren't they late to the game? we've known about the laundry list of challenges that russia is facing. a mix of western sanctions and decline in oil. they're a little bit late. we know they're going face a couple of years of downturn before we see growth pick up in 2017. >> absolutely. and the third factor which is a massive rate hike to protect the currency and the impact it will have on the domestic economy. the fact that the downgrade -- it seems basha surprising. >> yeah. we'll keep y

that's where that, that's where goldman goldman sachs' announcement, i think, falls flat.this, goldman sachss does have a business model problem. they've got to do something, they know it. it's kind of -- what the jpmorgan bankers are saying, this is a diversionary move away from what they have to do, which is grow. liz: charlie, thank you very much. i'm going to supervise your parking for davos. >> really? what color underwear? liz: just stick with white or black. can you believe? we're going together. unbelievable here. 30 minutes before the closing bell. you've got to hear story, charlie. it's been dubbed the timber for elitists. it's the dating app that checks out the school you went to -- >> do you think i'll get a lot of hot chicks if i tell them i went to pace university? [laughter] liz: how about uc santa cruz? okay. this one determines whether you qualify for an actual invitation to the web site. would you join it? the ceo of the league, a harvard business school graduate herself, joining me in a fox business exclusive. actually, i think she went to stanford. >>>

goldman sachs said it could drop to $40 a barrel.t the commodities overall today and you look at the best performers and the worst performers it's all energy related oil related assets. >> absolutely yeah. when you look at the worst performers today it's everything related to oil and oil derivitives. national gas heating oil and brent crude, they actually gave up losses earlier today but then extended that two to three day slide that we've seen. there's really no bottom in sight as you mentioned, they're setting that $40 price floor. you know, it could actually spell out some real short term and even medium term worries because they cut their 12 month price target as well. >> they weren't the only ones. lot of these analysts are playing catch up to the rapid decline in prices which took them all by surprise. you're polling this into equities and how energy companies are waiting in the s&p 500 has shifted overtime. >> right. one of our producers asked us earlier, spawned this idea i guess. we had looked at energy stocks in the s&p 500

goldman alumnus., biggest banks lag behind as economy gains steam. the piece basically says that for whatever reason whether dodd/frank or regulation or whatever it is that banks just aren't participating in what is a better economy for a lot of companies. do we cry a river or is it their own fault? >> that's pretty true. i was surprised at the lack of leverage of upside for bank of america, citi not oriented but not great. jpmorgan will tell you, we had quarter of a lifetime but i didn't see great growth. wells fargo which everyone slammed initially you circle back wells doesn't have legal, bells has -- wells has good lending. wells will do well. and so i felt that that was the only one that really had decent growth. this morning we have suntrust growth looks very good there. but it may not matter because this group is regarded as being a commodity and commodity they're hawking is treasuries and might as well be all one big vanilla box. so no one's going to look at this group until rates go higher. >

lying dead beside her is 25-year-old ron goldman. the prime suspect, nicole's ex-husband. football ledge o.j. simpson. he promises to surrender and then he disappears. >> the los angeles police department right now is actively searching for mr. simpson. >> simpson is soon spotted inside of a white suv. >> yeah, i think i just saw o.j. simpson on the 5 freeway. he is heading north. >> the famous low speed chase covered live for hours rivets the nation. and ends with simpson's giving up at his home. >> it was the perfect soap opera. the o.j. simpson car chase was the first real reality show for the country. it was the first wall to wall televised trial. >> july 22nd, 1994, a month after the murders. the legal proceedings against o.j. simpson begins when he enters this defiant plea. >> absolutely 100% not guilty. >> to help him prove that he assembles a legal dream team. >> each one of them was famous. >> jeffrey tubin covered the trial for "the new yorker." >> there has never been more prominent lawyers in one trial than the o.j. simpson case. there is alan dershowitz. famed

of the five things goldman does not think europe or ukraine are in a better position. though, and i know there must be something other than wow, things are great. what's the most concerning thing for you? maybe it's not knowing what it is? >> look the leverage in technology, all familiar with the good leverage of technology but what about the bad leverage of technology? people talk about cyber terrorism and bad behavior what about mistakes? you know somebody makes a mistake, bad software wrong button, connect to 60 exchanges. what if there's an error? finger trade used to cause drsh in the olden days you had you know, you had a fat finger and it would cost you a hundred thousand dollars. could you have a hundred million mistake, a billion dollar mistake because of loveeverage. there's that. there's the fact that interest rates are low as they can be. anybody and every issuing, somebody's buying securities. when rates come up all the securities have embedded losses in them. people know that's going to happen, but we'll discover people -- a lot of the world's structure i

nicole is nicole brown simpson, lying dead beside her, 25-year-old ron goldman.he prime suspect, nicole's ex-husband football legend o.j. simpson. simpson promises to surrender and then disappears. the los angeles police department right now is actively searching for mr. simpson. ♪ ♪ >> simpson is soon spotted inside a white suv. ♪ ♪ >> highway patrol? >> yeah. um, i think i just saw o.j. simpson on the 5 freeway and he's heading north. >> you have everybody scared. >> the famous low-speed chase covered live for hours rivets the nation. and ends with sifrm son's eventual surrender at his home on rockingham avenue. it was just the beginning. >> go, go, go. >> here's what we know right now. >> this was the perfect soap opera. the o.j. simpson murder case was the first true reality show for the country. >> okay. >> let's go. here we go. this was the first wall to wall televised trial. july 22nd, 1994, thing, and the legal proceedings against o.j. simpson begins when he enters this plea. >> 100% not guilt. >> to help him simpson assembles a legal dream team. >> each

news forecast from goldman sachs. it will not curtail shale drilling at least not until it falls to $40 per barrel. goldman sachs cut the forecast for the west texas intermediate rate benchmark to $39. prices fell more than 4% today. now below $47 per beryl. the biggest acquisition yet for a shyer -- for shire. this gives them treatment for rare diseases. they have been trying to boost growth since a proposed $52 billion sale collapsed last year. genetic testing partnering with the biggest drugmaker in the united states. sharing dna data at 350 thousand people with pfizer. the data will allow new targets to treat dizziness and -- diseases and design clinical trials. maybe the end of the road for peyton manning. struggling as denver loss in the nfl playoffs. manning says he is disappointed and does not yet know if he will return for an 18th season. >> he does have the papa john's pizza if it does not work out for him. cyber security will be on top of the agenda in washington this week. president obama will spend the ne

in goldman sachs, in apple. these stocks, goldman and apple down worse than the market here today. why is that? because they were up big this last year. those are the stocks, the heavy cap stocks, that people are piling out of right now. is it overdone? of course it is but it happens every year. the big winners hold them too long, it rolls over into the next year, you can buy them cheaper at the end of this week. >> part of my point, people say europe is the place to be, where the real value is. >> b.s. >> oh -- >> if you believe -- >> what's your time frame, 15 minutes. >> if you believe in europe you have to believe the turnaround is going to occur in germany. that's the story. is germany going to turn around. if germany is able to turn itself around, stabilize as the united kingdom was able to stabilize what was going on last year in europe. back to the financials for is a second, when financials bottom the first place you want to look and see the turn will be in the regional banks. and potentially see a deal

as you mentioned, goldman sachs u.s. equities strategy david costen explains why he thinks there could be an equity pullback next month. >> when we look at the data that has come out, we have for the last five weeks, the long positions are at an extreme. one of the highest extremes we've seen in a long time. and therefore, that would suggest that the u.s. equity market is likely to experience a pullback some time in the next four to six weeks. and that would be pretty consistent with the magnitude of an extreme reading we see in the commodities futures trading corporation data. >> so, is mr. kostin right? let's bring in jeff hussey global chief investment officer at russell investments. jim, i'll start with you. what do you think of mr. kostin's comments? do you think indeed we see that extreme in the commodity futures and does that or tend a big pullback in equities? >> well sue, our shortest time horizon for investment is 12 months. so we don't spend a lot of time trying to make 12-week predictions. having said that we

we're looking at goldman sachs and jpmorgan as the worst performers.rked the big mess because of legal expenses and sets that tone for the bank and their earnings reports. goldman sachs is another one in focus because of its volatility in trading that could result in. i also want to point out the move higher for oil -- a gain of more than two dollars a barrel to $47.93. there had been some disconnect between rising oil prices but stocks are coming off their lows, perhaps that is equalizing a little bit. >> scarlet, thank you. it's time now to -- time now for today's latin america report. result possibly to sales rose more than all economists estimated. the numbers were sparked by black friday promotions at the central bank. sales jumped .9% after a revised 1.3% increase in october. the president is struggling to revive consumer confidence after the cost of living in brazil surged last year and benchmark borrowing costs rose to the highest level since 2011. that is your latin america report for this wednesday. coming up medtronic which was founded in a

25-year-old ron goldman. the prime suspect? nicole's ex-husband, football legend o.j. simpson. simpson promises to sur render and then disappears. >> los angeles police department right now is actively searching for mr. simpson. >> simpson is soon spotted inside a white suv. >> highway patrol? >> yeah, i think i just saw o.j. simpson on the freeway and he's heading north. >> got everybody scared. >> the famous low speed chase covered live for hours rivets the nation. and ends with simpson's eventual sur render at his home on rockingham avenue. it was just the beginning. >> here's what we know right now. >> this was the perfect soap opera. the o.j. simpson murder case was the first true reality show for the country. >> okay. let's go. here we go. >> this was the first wall to wall televised trial. >> july 22nd. 1994. a month after the murders, the legal proceedings against o.j. simpson begin when he enters this defiant plea. >> 100% not guilty. >> and to help him prove that, simpson assembles a legal dream team. >> each one of them was famous. >> jeffrey toobin covered this tria

dash poured into the wounds by goldman sachs. it is one bullish forecast for oil pretty much in half as news trickled down of that bludgeoning. you could tell crude would drop. and then we got not one, not two but three punches right to the gut. three announcements that cut out the hearts of the bulls as swiftly as extracted some pour guy's heart in that moment in indiana jones. we know the consumers got spare change in their pockets. i felt so flush after spending only $1.99 on gasoline yesterday that i bought a wholeal gaen of windshield wiper fluid. you know what i didn't do? take the extra $20 once destined for the pump and splurge at tiffany's. maybe that's why tiffany's didn't make the numbers. last week we had two which gave you bummer numbers. tiffany doesn't really specialize in items below $5. and it doesn't coupon the heck out of the world. maybe it should because publicly traded store severely disappointed in the united states when same store sales falling 1%. i thought the u.s. was strong. the result a 14% stunning d

goldman sachs cut its oil price rejection.sts slashing their -- down from 73 to 75 -- when you cover all of the oil price cut forecasts, it must be incredible how the numbers go from 73 to 47. >> absolutely, but look what the actual price has done. it is a little bit of the analysts paying -- playing catch-up. saying if we predict more than a 20% decline, we will look crazy. to some extent they have to, when it is as steep as this. >> the thing with goldman sachs, they say it could drop to $40 a barrel. tell us more about what the report includes. >> goldman is looking at a new break-even price at $65 as the new normal. they are saying that capital is going to be the lever that will rebound the market, so what they are saying is watch the forward curve futures, 12 to 24 months out. as long as that is below 65 that will deter the investment that gets the supply reduction the market is looking for. >> basically what opec is looking for as well. >> that's right. goldman is reiterating that they do not inspect saudi arabia and cor

. >>> goldman sachs kicking off our top trades tonight. beating earnings estimates.t by weakness and fixed income trading and 16% decline in investment banking revenue. we should have known this right from the other banks. >> not necessarily. don't lump goldman with the rest of those cats because they're better. >> weakness in trading. >> honestly they should have done a lot better than they did. that would light a candle under their collective rear ends to have a better quarter last time around. it's had a nice up trend since the middle of 2012. i think the quarter was okay. tangible book is 163. you put it at 1.5 times tangible book you have a stock by the end of the year. >> that seems like a good sign. >> i think technically out of all the financials, i like wells fargo, obviously you're going to get hit with the home builders weakness on that one but goldman sachs is the best out of everybody. >> next up, speaking earlier today on squawk box he explained why you short the big oil names. >> the fracking and shale revolution was preparing us to be the largest oil

here is julia goldman. here is julinna goldman. >> reporter: the federal investigation stems from an affair petraeus had with his biographer paula broadwell and whether he gave her access to an cia e-mail and other classified documents. shortly after their relationship came to light in november 2012 petraeus resigned his post as c.i.a. director, they learned of to the career as a socialite andri friend of petraeus asked the bureau to look into a series of threatening e-mails, agents traced those e-mails to broadwell and opened a separate investigation where they foundn classified information on her computer. both petraeus and broadwell have previously denied that he provided her with classified materials. days after his resignation president obama said he had no evidence petraeus disclosed classified information that would harm national security. >> my main hope right now is that he and his family are able to move on and that this ends up being a single sidenote on what has otherwise been ant extraordinary

first, goldman sachs out with numbers today. the results topped estimates but the firm reported a 7% year to year drop in fourth quarter profit citing weak income trading the main reason for the decline there. shares off slightly today. $177.23. next pnc financial. said its profit and revenue slid. despite that quarterlies before than expected as the strengthening economy bolstered commercial lending and company set aside less money to cover losses. shares up $2 and up $84.44. up by almost 10% as revenue and net income growth set new records. the company said despite low interest rates, it was able to deliver some of the strongest results in history. shares there up slightly to $26.90. sun trust banks earnings fell because of a mortgage related legal spens. beat estimates as loans grew in the fourth quarter. shares up 4% to $38.19. >>> shares of precision cast parts slumped after it issued a weak outlook. the metals component and product maker said the third quarter results would be lower than expected expected citing falling sa

the fourth quarter of this y >> i do agree with goldman sachs' forecast. when you look at the supply/demand dynamic, it's still heavily skewed heavily to the supply side. it doesn't look like it will change before the beginning of the summer. i would expect prices to be low going into the summer. >> while supply is key, so is demand. and neither are seen changing anytime soon. for "nightly business report," i'm jackie d'an gel lus. >>> it's earnings seasons when companies post what they made or lost last quarter, how they did it and how they look to the future. as usual tonight, alcoa kicks off the fourth quarter earning season and posted a solid beat. 33 cents a share excluding certain items easily topping the wall street forecast as you see there. revenues are nearly $6.4 billion, also beat estimates on a 14% jump in year-over-year sales. shares initially higher. after-hours trading, after issuing promising guidance and upbeat comments from alcoa's ceo. >> if you look at the ups, the revenue is up 14%. and by the way, 50% of that is driven purely by orga

goldman, people did not choose to look good, goldman 1 the95 goes down to 177.iti didn't know about legal, okay. jpmorgan didn't know about legal, including a couple of comments by jamie dimon about five, six regulators. >> which may have obscured what he would argue are record earnings. >> bank of america was not good. >> we didn't see a lot of records. >> goldman, stock went down a lot. >> yes. >> suntrust and wells if you circle back suntrust and wells don't have fixed -- they don't do it. >> right. >> so therefore, people are saying, i want a bank that is a bank, all right. morgan stanley i mean it's absurd here but if this stock will be up big if they close fixed income currency but that's silly. gorman will tell a story, this is my main point, gorman will tell a story, the cfo will tell a story, you're going to like it. you're going to like it because the model's being transferred. >> supplements to earnings report include this looking forward deck that -- you can see it here -- look at the pie chart, what the key is there, management in '06 was this much

at 7:30 we're expecting quarterly numbers from goldman sachs. then from 8:30 we get the government's latest inflation numbers. we'll get the consumer price index. remember that came after the ppi yesterday that showed a much bigger decline than had been anticipated. also at 10:00 a.m. latest read on consumer sentiment. and the u.s. equity futures at this hour we've been bouncing once again this morning. an hour ago we were down about 40 point ossen the dow. right now dow indicated down about 7 points. s&p futures down by just about a point. and the nasdaq down close to 20 points. also take a look at currencies. a day after the surprise move by the swiss scrapping the floor between the swiss franc and the euro that tie that was trying to keep it. it didn't work well. this morning the euro versus the dollar 1.1586. that's something people are paying a lot of attention to.

-also ahead, goldman sachs president garyc cohn will join us. was just talking about last week, the currency wars, you have heard so much about. >> later the backlash against president obama's proposal to tax the 529 college savings plans continues. the part of the middle class that he's calling rich are not exactly feeling wealthy. we'll give you the facts on that story coming up. >>> head to the close, we mentioned art cashin saying there was $300 million in stock to buy on the close. we're coming off the low a little bit. the dow down 6 points. the s&p up 3. the nasdaq up 10 points. joining me is mark from premiere wealth, and peter costa from empire executions is back with us again. mark obviously kind of odd time we're in this awkward period because of the weather and everything. is this a time to just stand back and let the market do what it's going to do or you want to take advantage of opportunities? >> i want to take advantage of opportunities. >> where are they? >> i'm advising to my clients to get into the market. the opportunities li

which side is right, moody's or goldman?'s get right to the floor show, traders at the new york stock exchange, cme group and nymex. i'd pretty much say, phil flynn, right now goldman has the momentum on its side to go lower, does it not? >> it does, absolutely. and, you know, right now we did see a little sign of support at $44, but it wasn't a big bounce. we didn't close higher after we recovered, so i don't think that's a solid bottom. who's going to be right? in this type of environment, they both could be right. when we looked at the price of oil historically, when we see these historic drops, a lot of times the markets do make big rebounds. the question is how quickly and how fast. you know, sometimes the harder they fall, the bigger they rebound. so we could see them both be right before this year is out. liz: well, exactly. so they could both be right, jeff grossman, and maybe we could get a three-year or a ten-year chart and you can see where it's been, where it might go. what do the traders think for the short term

and goldman downgraded.t was wrong. >> but it doesn't appear to be a merck situation. >> no not at all. by the way, brent saunders is on today. the activist. >> nice. >> and again, the stock will go up again. i'm just telling you. that guy is fabulous tv. told me this guy is a good guy. didn't want to sell to anybody. said saunders is a good guy. let's watch them with scott widener. >> think they put that in their bio? >> he's the kam chancellor of drugs. i'm not kidding. he can leap over anything. >>> meanwhile, video streamers were in the winners circle during last night's golden globe awards. amazon won globes for the first time with "transparent," that comedy drama series about a transgender father taking the award for best tv series, musical, or comedy. the show's star jeffrey tambor won for best performance in a tv comedy series. kevin spacey among the other winners of the night, taking home the golden globe for best actor in a tv drama, of course for "house of cards" on netflix. the two lead a night w

goldman sachs think so. and >> welcome back. the market moves to talk about.he treasuries and yields dropping. you remember october 1 five. we are back down there again. there we are. that was the trade. the yields must go higher and they went lower. we have a treasury yields on the 10 year and it is 0.48%. that is a record low in germany. the continuing theme is the yields lower in germany and let's talk about the u.k.. it is set to be another big year for the economy with a general election in may. joining us now is the chief u.s. -- u.k. economist. you made my job easy by putting out a note. i will start with the first one. the recovery. >> i looked at the risk of the recovery and david cameron would have had the election last year. the question is whether we can sustain the recovery. >> there are clear risks to growth and the growth is weak. a lot of the growth has been fueled by the falls in the ratios with only so far it back to go. we are optimistic it is being driven by oil prices now down 50%. that is enough to drive the rates and all else is really e

jeff currie of goldman sachs on that bombshell oil note, adam posen will join is in the 7:00 hour. stay tuned for chris whalen on jpmorgan. from new york city this morning, this is "bloomberg surveillance." ♪ >> good morning, everyone. "bloomberg surveillance." i am tom keene. olivia sterns and written in greeley. futures improves -6. they were worse an hour and a half ago. >> bloomberg's francine lacqua spoke with pershing's bill ackman, taking his victory lap it seems over to europe. he talked about anything from tesla to market volatility. francine, what is your top takeaway? >> olivia, we talked about the environment after the great 2014 he had. in 2015, will he be able to replicate these trend we saw? he says it is difficult to predict, the environment is right to do some great deals. we asked about volatility for stop some investors a it is difficult to sift through volatility. he said that is actually a bonus. >> i do think it is a favorable environment for what we do. >> despite the volatility? >> volatility is a good thing. if you are a long-term investor and you do not ha

goldman sachs tomorrow i expect a big number. i put calls in there as well. >> goldman sachs has a lot of trading. >> they do. >> trading has been the problems for the banks that have reported. >> equity trading was up 25% at jpmorgan as well. so it was really the fixed income that was their one down spot along with obviously what everybody focused on which is the legal issues. >> i think the capital levels and credit metrics were a little bit on the margin disappointing in addition to fic, but fic down 20, 30% at these companies year over year. stunning. we expected declines but not to this level. i think that, you know, i think goldman is going to outperform. i think morgan stanley is going to outperform and want to be selective in banks. >> i think there's two things you should look at if you work with an ador and an ability to buy bond offerings of these financial institutions i would do it as they build cash that's a better trade than opening the equity. the consumer finance names you're long american express, private sector

the most constructive looking chart looks like goldman sachs to me. that's the one i would buy, based specifically on technicals. >> all right. still ahead, one oil and gas play reporting earnings on thursday. could see a major move. we break down that trade. that's next. >>> oil service stocks and schlumberger in particular hit a fresh 52-week low today. some traders see even more pain to come after the company reports earnings later this week. dan made it over to the smart board. dan, what do you see? >> schlumberger, the stock reports thursday after the close. the implied move in the options market about 5.5% in either direction. but here is the thing. the stock has really only moved about 2, 2.5% on average over the last four quarters. today options volume ran really hot. about two times average volume with puts at about two times average daily volume. and when the stock was 78.53, there was a buyer of 10,000 of the january this friday expiration, 78 puts, paying 153 for 10,000. that's $1.53 million in premium. likely a 2% break even on the downsi

first, goldman sachs, $40 oil. i'm not going to belabor that point. but what's more interesting to me is that diplomatic push from opec to try to get a production cut. they were not successful. opec really digging its heels in and saying it will not cut production. remember, venezuela and iran, they've got break-even prices around $100 a barrel. these are countries that are getting very squeezed right now. stateside here, u.s. production is actually steady to increasing, despite the fact that we've been talking about rate counts decreasing stateside. and also, two significant refinery fires as well, pushing prices lower. having said that, the dollar is stronger today too. so all of these things taken into account and traders are expecting prices to continue down from here. back to you guys. >> okay. thank you very much for that, jackie deangelis. and we should note as we went into our show, we weren't at triple digit losses for the show, now we are. we also saw the dow dropping as well. the dow is current down by about 112 points. as for the s&p, we'r

a disappointing fourth quarter for goldman sachs.enue fell to the lowest in almost a decade. earnings in the quarter dropped 7%. in response, goldman is paying employees a small share of revenue. a top official overseeing the troubled launch of obamacare is stepping down. she will be replaced by a former top executive at the unitedhealth group. they have crunched the numbers and it's official. venture capitalists invested more than $40 billion in startups last year, the most and the.com boom in 2000, 60% more than in 2013. megadeals were huge. uber had two rounds of financing, each bringing in more than a billion dollars. >> now to the fallout out of yesterday's shocker from switzerland. the central bank decision to drop the cap on the swiss franc may put trading houses across the world completely out of business. one of them is the biggest retail forex brokerage in the u.s., fxcm which is facing insolvency. swiss citizens are curious. this move could drive the nation into recession. our international correspondent hans nichols is in

today cigna, goldman sachs upgrading to a buy. >> up 2.1%.nks the obamacare implementation risk to cigna and other insurers have diminished and like the valuation. the target goes to 117 from 113. >> moving on to general dynamics, a downgrade at rbc. >> music. rbc down grades and cuts price target to 141 from 150 still above the current price. if you own general diem naices take note because rbc saying 2014 was so good it will be hard to have that kind of year. they downgrade it. >> we are upping the funk factor here on "street talk." american express seeing upgrade to buy goldman sachs. >> analysts see 13% total upside. the stock is up 2%. the macrothesis is this. people are going to spend more money on credit card and pay it back. average target is 98.19. >> this is our under the radar name. it is compass minerals. >> i'm into the music. i can't stop moving. it's a kansas based salt and fertilizer maker. up to buy. target 105 a share. stock is at 89.5 bucks. falling from 2009 to 2013. they are expected to finally be above the '09 levels. ju

goldman sachs says the chief u.s. strategist there says watch out below. he believes a serious pullback is imminent and he is naming a date. energy and utilities, both sectors really moving. how do you know when to get in and get out? and today, volatility during the earnings season. which sectors and stocks go up or down about this time of year? and a huge story today, three major plans to raise taxes in the united states in new york city and in the state of california. firs

but i want to ask jamie what he thinks does goldman need to grow?ike the firm that needs to grow to buy something to stay alive and to compete. it's had lousy earnings. it needs a stable base of revenues. does goldman need to buy a wealth manager or an asset manager so it can compete against not just jpmorgan but deutsche bank and these large international players? melissa: okay. all right, charlie, i love it. go offend people, get thrown out of something just really get in trouble, and we'll see you in a little bit. we're going to have more from charlie tomorrow and the rest of the week. i can hardly wait. >>> all right a flash freeze paralyzing the nation's roads. icy conditions are leading to hundreds of crashes across the country. plus the countdown is on. we've got a sneak preview of the most anticipated super bowl as -- including emmitt smith proving why he won dancing with the stars. do you ever have too much charlie gasparino? ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ melissa: a matchup for super bowl 49 is finally set but not without some old-fashioned controversy as the pa