tom: goldman sachs, so nice of them to delay. sonali basak now with what we see from goldman sachs.quities and trading also be expectations. interestingly, they bought in just about how much morgan stanley bought in, little bit more. these two banks have been at it for the last couple of years in terms of competition. fixed sales in trading also beat expectations. we saw a slight decline over a jp morgan. we knew that the commodities business was a star when it comes to their trading business. they got into the nickel market in the first quarter. tom: let me interrupt you. wall street firms and commodities, is that all the rage now? you are so good at looking out a year. is that we will see in 2023, re dux of the commodity boom of 40 years ago? sonali: this could be a double-edged sword. people making money on the volatility but also seeing losses. jp morgan yesterday with that nickel exposure, credit cost of $120 million tied to the chaos here. banks are looking to make markets. if you trade the wrong way, you know you can lose a lot of money just as easily. not to mention these ba

goldman, citi, and morgan stanley are next to report. gains in the s and p and on the nasdaq are very pronounced. yields were lower and that led to a supportive environment. some investors are starting to bet that inflation is starting to show signs of. eking. -- show signs of peaking. the ftse 100 currently range bound. you're looking for the geopolitics as well and the focus on china. chinese markets performing well on the back of a potential stimulus or cuts to the rrr ratio as well. president xi jinping coming out to say that the zero covid policy has to be maintained. still focused on the policy response out of the pboc. the cac is gaining 0.2% and we continue to keep and i on the earnings picture. the german dax is gaining around 0.2%. the spanish ibex is a range bound. let's move and see how things are playing out across assets. it is worth mentioning that the nikkei performed well in the sanction -- in the asian session today. we see gains on those futures. we look at the front end of the yield space because that is where we saw

perhaps there is a reason why goldman sachs is cheaper, why goldman sachs is at a one price to book, why goldman sachs is at a 52-week low versus a morgan stanley. what do you think? >> well, so that's interesting you're saying is it cheaper for a reason because it's growth is not as robe ust over the last fr years. if you look at the history of goldman and where they made their money, they're strong reformulate and reimagine the company to some extent, but i understand what pete's saying and one times booked isn't a lot for a growing financial, and i think that's a reasonable purchase and entry point right here >> i think we've got pete back carrie approves of your purchase just yesterday when we spoke about the markets you couldn't find a single stock to buy, what else is on that list of yours? >> we were talking about that yesterday and best buy was one of the names i was definitely looking at there's a few names and multiple names each and every day and sometimes something else pops up, but the reason i wanted to make this move in goldman was it just seemed like the right timing

i think of goldman, morgan stanley. bryn, you own goldman.n morgan stanley. bryn, you go first >> yeah, i think everything leslie laid out was spot on. goldman's off 25% from its highs. i like the company i'm not going sell it, but i think we're in this weird conundrum that you have global gdp will be slowing. that's going to happen we have investment bank slowing, then you get a yield curve steepening that's why banks are up today. i think we have a confluence of pluses and minuses i'm going to hold it, but i'm not loving the position and i don't have a high conviction that it's going to all of a sudden turn around and have a spectacular return >> it's funny, weiss you own goldman. i don't think you're going anything with it correct me if i'm wrong on that. that reminds me of the comments you made about bank of america speaking about the space more broadly. it's like, well, i'm not selling it, but i'm kind of looking at it i don't love what it's been doing. put that into context for me how firm of a holder are you of a name that you've liked

in 2020 a goldman unit admitted it conspired to violate u.s. antibribery laws and pay more than $2.9 billion, the largest penalty of its kind in u.s. history, and more than $5 billion globally for its role in the scheme. global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i am mark crumpton and this is bloomberg. >> welcome to bloomberg markets. >> i'm romaine bostick in for matt miller. romaine: global food prices are surging as of the war in ukraine chokes crop supply. paying for some gains for others. we will take a look at kroger and why they're stocks are at a record high. and we hear from canada's finance minister on why she says trudeau's plan is fiscally responsible. jon: let's get a quick check of the major averages. the s&p 500 was a modest gain. trying to make up for certainly some big selling russia we saw tuesday and wednesday. when it comes to sectors like tech that were really under pressure those days you are still seeing cautiousness. we watch th

goldman sachs under wrote $6400000000.00 worth of bonds for the fund. the bank made 600000000 in fees out of it. ang was accused of helping divert more than $4000000000.00 from the fund to malaysian government officials and others through bribes for future business. but ng was just one player in a complicated web of corruption. his former boss, tim listener, is the most senior goldman sachs banker to plead guilty, receiving tens of millions of dollars in illicit proceeds. goldman sachs malaysian unit pled guilty and paid nearly $3000000000.00 in fines. former malaysian prime minister naji bra, zach convicted in 2020 of money laundering, and corruption was sentenced to 12 years in prison. and finally, there's jo low, a flamboyant malaysian billionaire business man, and the alleged architect of the scheme who prosecutor se pocketed $2700000000.00 for himself. he still on the run from authorities. analysts say it was one of the biggest corruption schemes ever. this is corruption at the grand la. unlike most sovereign wealth funds where you actually have we

goldman sachs sees the odds at 35% in the next two years. scott, 35 percent is goldman's number.? >> we have been debating this on the investment strategy committee over the last month or two. 25% to 35% i think is the consensus on our committee. probably that 30% to 35% range is probably what our economists would be more honed in on. kailey: let's talk about what the forces are that potentially could drive to slower growth if not an outright contraction. what is the biggest risk to u.s. growth? >> really, this is been the same for us for quite a while. i think it is inflation, inflation that is higher than what we expect which causes the fed to do more, the magnitude of the hikes then what we expect. i think inflation is still probably the number one risk out there. clearly, that has impacted. real wages are down. we slap supply chain issues, but when we look out there, inflation is higher than what we thought it was going to be. it has stuck around for longer than what we thought it was going to be. we still think it is going to accelerate as we look over the next 12 to 24 mont

goldman sachs notes that includes $495 billion in single stock diffederivitives. that could add to the volatility it all comes as stocks are suffering in april with all of the major averages lower. let's talk about this and the fed with joe fahmy joe, i was being snarky about the fed. they can say what they want ove what they are doing later on in the year is it possible that the federal reserve, while everyone saying they raise rates 100 times they could change on a dime. could they not >> of course i think they could be flexible based on market conditions i have been saying that i feel there is limited upside right now until the fed changes or ends the hawkish tone. i have been bullish since the pandemic lows for two main reasons. technicals were improving and the fed was providing all of this insane an accommodation not only by keeping interest rates low, but with all their bond buying. more treasury purchases in the six weeks following the pandemic than nine year combined between 2009 and 2018. they continued with that $120 billion a month in bond purchases. w

tom: sharon bell, equity strategist at goldman sachs, let's bring you in. the line from bullard upon the 75 basis points and says it should be considered. we have bill dudley saying in order to get inflation down, you have to take a hit to the economy, there will be a recession. what do you make of these hawkish calls and commentary, where it leads to where we should be thinking about the fed come may? sharon: we think they won't go 75 but there is a risk they do. we think they will go 50 in may and another 50 in june. a much faster pace than we expected a few months ago given the higher interest -- inflation rates. absolutely. francine: the earnings season kicks off next week. how much of a wobble will they have if inflation goes up? what are you looking for? margins, inventories, something else? sharon: the first quarter earnings will probably be ok. my main focus is on europe, and european growth being absolutely fine even with the high rate of inflation. a couple of reasons for that. i think the pace of recovery out of covid, the pandemic and lockdowns,

we will talk to jason goldman. he is part of the founding team and an early board member. what does he think of elon musk swooping in on his version of free speech? and we will talk to the cofounder about the new play in telehealth. we will get to all of that in a moment. big tech earnings continue. meta-and qualcomm out. quick still to be driving the market higher. the tech heavy nasdaq ventured into negative territory. it did jump as much as 1.8%. that is one point today. almost 4% yesterday. seeing a rebound there. the yields were higher but it did not seem to scare off equity investors buying stock. it is a really big day for big tech earnings. we will talk about meta-in just a second. i want to look at qualcomm as well. that beat all analyst estimates. let's switch up the board and look at meta-platforms. for the pop we are seeing here. they are up 16% and it is all about the projected users they had in the first quarter. now what we are seeing are some concerns that they are not losing users to social media competitors like to talk as much as we thought. as i talk ab

head of the research at goldman sachs.w note on the commodity super cycle and issues facing the market jeff, great to have you back on. before we get into your note, europe is debating today potentially to directly sanctioning or stopping buying russian oil. if that were to occur, i could see two scenarios. one, russian oil keeps flowing and inventory builds up and prices go down or markets get tighter and prices go higher what do you think? >> it pushes prices higher because europe would have to source barrels somewhere else in the world. the immediate reaction to reshuffle oil around the world would be bullish it won't change anything in terms of the longer term amply indications. i think doing that, gas is not so much critical with germany, it will wblock this bottom line, germany doesn't work out the low-cost gas through the pipeline from russia they will push back. it will be short of catastrophic in terms of economic growth to shut the pipelines it is mutually assured destruction to stop the gas flows. i like to poin

there is something fun to note when it comes to jp morgan and goldman sachs. had a loss when it came to the newcomb market, but goldman sachs started making markets in nickel, and the bid they were taking, and the ask right now, nickel is trading above that midpoint of where they were making markets. so that will be very interesting to watch in tomorrow's numbers for goldman sachs. kriti: we have covered trading revenue with you, we have covered the bank bottom line. a question in the market is what these companies are going to do with these piles of cash they have. i'm curious about the advisory fees for jp morgan, because one of the questions for corporate america is, we but to go on an m&a boom before this cash is worth less? sonali: it's a great question. you are seeing the private equity firms dip into the debt markets here. early provide a lot of private credit and financing when a lot of the banks and their investors are shyer on that regard. that said, m&a has not bounced back to a huge degree. we see some one-off rumors about deals involving large, we

there's goldman for you, stock is up almost 2%.ally interesting this morning. maria: that's a great point, cheryl. i love it. thank you for that. cheryl: you bet. maria: we want to take a look at a what we're getting from the bank earnings and what does it mean for the rest of the year. joining me right now is the odion capitol group chief financial strategist, dick boveee. it's great to see you. i know you've been pouring over the reports, jp morgan as well as what we're getting today. first let's talk goldman and give us your assessment from this quarter and what you see if any treens coming out of the bank earnings. >> it's looking at the rear view mirror, not looking forward. the expectation was morgan stanley and goldman would have very weak earnings in the quarter and clearly they have beaten and the reason why they've beaten is because there have been significant money flows into the wealth management division because merger and acquisition activity has been stronger than expected, because high grade investment grade bond is

that's a pretty clean book because goldman scrubs everything goldman is the star of the day gold mane star. >> seems the up vestment banking down 38% at goldman, 27% at morgan stanley priced in? >> i thought so. higher than morgan at 15 not priced in. >> other thematics, light tax rate pretty much across the board. made things easier. >> that's rtrue i don't know in the end, goldman and morgan stanley are both going to be good today c citi, i found confusing it is up other than a decline in russian exp exposure, i didn't see much. unproven situation i'm tired of seeing this tangible book there of 79, stock at 50. how tangible that is -- remember, they said they had to back off in the buyback. >> yup. >> i've not seen that degree of difference between stock price and tangible book, other than when you start getting into the fed era. this is a more solid bank than those. washington mutual. these were banks where the book value was overstated i want more information. i want everything in the book value explained to me. this should not be -- you mean to tell me if citi closed today, i ge

that is where i first met the chief economist at goldman sachs.owned the high ground on the last housing boom. we are going to talk about the goldman sachs call, the gloom of recession, and the labor economy. thank you for joining us. i want to go to labor. years ago when you were a young upstart at goldman sachs, go back further. your analysis on where we are with the strange labor economy goes back to the 1940's and 1950's. jonathan: that is right --. jan: that is right. if you look at the gap between the total number of jobs and workers where we have the most overheated labor market going back to the early 1950's, that is great to see. 11 million open positions, 6 million unemployed workers. that 5 million gap is a record in absolute terms and relative to the size of the economy. that is what the fed will be focused on. tom: politicians want unemployed america. what is wrong with an overheated labor economy? -- politicians want an employed america. jonathan: -- jan: with a 2% inflation target, you get higher inflation that erodes the real wage

plenty of goldman executives left. many faced reduced pay.risen for 30 years because of this. guy: thank you for the update. we will get more details as we continue to follow the story. don't forget, you can track all of this news or listen in on bloomberg radio. the cable show is coming up at the top of the hour, 12:00 p.m. in new york and 5:00 p.m. in london. you can find the podcast on itunes and spotify. kailey: the questions of politics and geopolitics will continue on "balance of power." the chairman of the kkr global institute will be joining david westin. that will wrap it up for guy and myself. have a good weekend. from new york and london, this is bloomberg. ♪ >> from the world of politics. >> we have to assume the talks are going nowhere slowly and this war is going to continue for the foreseeable future. >> to the world of business. >> i do think innovation thrives when you have an open market and that is what we need when it comes to technology. >> this is balance of power with david westin. david: from bloomberg world headquarte

in fact, goldman, which has been on the more hawkish side, is saying for the fed to get rates sustainablewhat's priced in. so we're closer to your forecast so i guess the main question now is why not and what do you think they're doing with all this talk about the balance sheet? >> i think there are a few things going on. one is the fed is still trying to obtain a soft landing a soft landing is still possible it just becomes a lot harder when inflation is running this high so can they cool the economy down without getting into a recession? they're trying to calibrate the policy to get that policy rate mix correct. so part of that is raising policy rates, moving interest rates higher that's what the market is pricing in, but part of that the governor is talking about and what we'll see in the minutes on wednesday is what are they going to do with the balance sheet that's the other lever they can pull on to try to create higher rates in the back end, higher mortgage rates, and try to put restraint on the economy to bring down inflation >> you've got a forecast, meaning four rate hike projec

goldman sachs will have numbers that will not be pretty either generally you can see goldman sachs is the golde-- tgoldman sd and they'll give us a big number. >> all right, coming up the number one worry on investors mind and shares of delta airlines ceo saying things are phenomenal do our traders agree that trade and much more when "fast money" returns wonder woman... serena... wonder woman... serena... wonder woman. ace. advantage! you cannot be serious... get your tv together with the best of live and on demand. directv stream. now get $30 off over 3 months. you can't buy love. happiness. or confidence. but you can invest in them. at t. rowe price our strategic investing approach can help you build the future you imagine. ♪ ♪ >>> welcome back to "fast money" airline stocks gaining altitude, delta posting a strong quarter and the rest of the group taking off too. let's get more from phil lebeau. >> this is a testament how many people want to get out and go, whether for leisure or business, they are traveling guidance is the reason all airline stocks moved higher today. look at delt

me tell you, goldman sachs always makes money.e environment they have a lot of cash they can earn and the traditional banks i own are better positioned to benefit from higher returns on cash. even a goldman sachs can suddenly in a higher-rate environment earn money on money-market funds again they haven't done it in ten years. this is a positive here. i think the baby is getting thrown out with the bath water watch the price. i'm a holder >> long-term maybe this works out. i hope it does for your say, michael 2 plus percent dividend yield doesn't offset the loss you seen today where do you stand on the banks. mike mayo had a note to look at the impact on a steepening yield curve and he prefers main street banking over wall street banking. where do you stand >> i think if we look at what happened with the yield curve inversion now the fed will unwind the balance sheet at a faster pace will be less of a topic of conversation because we're likely to see the yield curve steepen. consumer balance sheets have been in pristine shapes and

goldman, and i'm happy to make a motion to amend this item as described by dr. goldman.n we have a roll call vote. >> clerk: on that motion to approve the motion as accepted by d.p.h. -- [roll call] >> clerk: we have three yeas. >> chair ronen: thank you so much, and i will make a motion to send this item to the full board with a positive recommendation and please add me as a cosponsor. >> clerk: noted, chair ronen. on this motion to send this item to the full board with a positive recommendation as amended -- [roll call] >> clerk: we have three ayes. >> chair ronen: wonderful. thanks so much. mr. clerk, can you please read item 8? >> clerk: yes. item 8 is a resolution retroactively authorizing the department of public health to accept and expand a grant in the supplemental amount of $100,000 from the hellman foundation for participation in a program, entitled hellman foundation grant, to bridge the divide between health care systems and the food community through the innovation of providing food as medicine through clinic based food pharmacies for the period of november

musk is represented by morgan stanley, goldman representing twitter.the earnings calls, the talk of m&a has gone down dramatically. sonali: as equity volatility stabilizes a little bit and valuations are suppressed, that gives some opportunity for private equity to start showing up. the other thing here is that you see billionaire led deals in elon musk. elon musk, by the way, has counted morgan stanley as a banker before. they have hired them to do many jumbo loans for his mortgages here. so you see the banks catering to wealthy individuals and corporate clients, finding chances for big deals in between. kriti: you mentioned fundraising in particular. we talked about the advisory business. talk about the ecm business. sonali: that activity was high last year and has begun to fall off this year. this is something more investors say they are prolonging equity raising activity, but with m&a, i have to say goldman sachs still got in more than $1 billion worth of advisory fees alone and morgan stanley saw their fees more than double in the business, so und

goldman sachs under wrote $6400000000.00 worth of bonds for the fund. the bank made 600000000 in fees out of it. ng was accused of helping divert more than $4000000000.00 from the fund to malaysian government officials and others through bribes for future business. but ng was just one player in a complicated web of corruption. his former boss, tim listener, is the most senior goldman sachs banker to plead guilty receiving tens of millions of dollars in illicit proceeds. goldman sachs malaysian unit pled guilty and paid nearly $3000000000.00 in fines. former malaysian prime minister naji bra, zach convicted in 2020 of money laundering, and corruption was sentenced to 12 years in prison. and finally, there's jo low, a flamboyant malaysian billionaire business man, and the alleged architect of the scheme who prosecutor se pocketed $2700000000.00 for himself. he still on the run from authorities. analysts say it was one of the biggest corruption schemes ever. this is corruption at the grand level. unlike most sovereign wealth funds where you actually have w

>> he said that he bought goldman sachs. >> and the setup is good for goldman sachs.setup for jp morgan, i'm sure karen feels this way, when did you mention the last time we were here together, december of 2019 well it was february of 2020 where everything created and jp morgan was making an all-time high at 136 and where it is now. and jp morgan in earnings this week for the first time in a while, i think it worth it is worthy of a change. >> we're off this friday but the following friday at 5:30 shares of microsoft dropping we'll tell you the potential slowdowns that that has faults worried. and now at&t topping today's tape the big deal that had shares surging. do not go anywhere more "fast money" right after this ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ nice suits, you guys blend right in. the world needs you back. i'm retired greg, you know this. people are taking financial advice from memes. [baby spits out milk] i'll get my onesies®. ♪ “baby one more time” by britney spears ♪ e*trade now from morgan stanley. ♪ ♪ wow, we're crunching tons of polygons here! what's going on? where's regina?

goldman sachs, again, we talked about it goldman sachs, i think they are going do well and even with the capital market coming in on the underwriting trading is a hugs are. they diversified into wealth management and they have's multitrillion manager on what that looks like. this morning "jim treader and look at those places where you can invest in high-quality management team and businesses that will have a diversified mix to weather these storms and exchanges and i'll touch on this one again, the financials. the movement of money and whether volatility goes up or down, people who make money that movement of money i believe will do well. pay attention going forward and listen to how they're guiding you in the quarters that we have ahead versus what's happened in the rear-view mirror >> we'll bounce for a couple of minute bmo's brian belski we'll find out how he's asitioning himself and whether hegrees with mr. minerd and a price target on the s&p. does it hold up? we'll talk to him next i invest , a fund that gives me access to the nasdaq-100 innovations, like real time cgi. okay...

that's no different than what we knew to do when we were at goldman sachs.re doing it at hertz. now we're sweating the assets. we need to think about return on assets what is the return our asset base can produce and there's the ame. you can't overindex on any one figure rate is one component. utilization is another, depreciation is another. you need to take the whole of that and say what's the return on the asset and let that guide you whether you're buying cars or not and whether you're buying electric cars or not because electric cars are fulfilling the analytics we first put in, which they are proving to yield a higher roa, a higher return. we're getting higher rate and lower operating experience on them >> one last question because of semi conductor vavailability and price. is it possible you're buying high, and once they work out the supply constraints, you'll be stuck with a fleet too expensive? >> you need to mine your sales, right? you can't just look at infleeting new cars. you need to think hard about what is the value, the residual value on an ol

sarah: you have been a goldman sachs before greylock, you know how this works.ll happen in terms of the convergence of traditional finance and defi? there has to be some space where the two combine. sarah: yeah, i think this will be a massive boon to the ecosystem as more traditional finance players move into the crypto ecosystem. the greatest promise of crypto is accessible, trustless markets that are more efficient. the big institutional players, be they hedge funds or thanks or market makers -- banks or market makers, they provide efficiency and liquidity in markets. i think a lot of traditional finance organizations have been waiting for increasing regulatory clarity, but i'm really encouraged that you see firms like goldman sachs or citadel say explicitly we are making moves into crypto and feel more comfortable about the risks. i think that will make the entire ecosystem more liquid and mature. sarah: you are in the bahamas. about 2000 people are there. what is your biggest take away? sarah: we are at a point of maturity in the ecosystem where the most imp

morgan, morgan stanley and goldman sachs are some of the banks that have a dedicated crypto team.ce of crypto hiring at financial firms quadrupled from 2015 and jumped 40% in the first half of 2021 i spoke to the ceo of onyx, as well that's j.p. morgan's bloc chain group. omar farouk tell me they have to move slower and worry about j.p. morgan's brand and says the impact is something that a fintech. >> platform can go from literally nothing to moving and transacting a billion dollars of trade a day in a few months. so i think that sort of scale can only be possible when you operate at a company like j.p. morgan chase >> farouk, they have 2 hun people from start-ups and they hired thousands of j.p. morgan employees around the world it's not just first-year analyst guys he says it's managing directors and some of the more senior leadership applying to work at onyx other folks i talked to have found the pace of innovating from within a bank to be frustrating. take mary katherine ladder she has an mba from harvard and worked at goldman and started working on crypto as a side project a

the words of goldman, hardpacked to a soft landing. tom: this is the value out of surveillance, and you can see it in china gdp. dr. hatzius knows there is the official recession, two quarters negative gdp, it is a lot of inertial force to get to that outcome. the other way to look at it is jeffrey frankel of harvard suggested is more than a simple formula, and you have to fix in other things like labor. hatzius was on set, and he was heated about an overheated job economy. how do you have a recession with a hatzius overheated job economy? jonathan: thanks to you, i actually had a lot of people on the coast reach out to me. [laughter] tom: you and i are seeing a 40 degree chill, and ferro is watching the sunset -- lisa: you know what? not anymore. good to have you back. [laughter] jonathan: futures down half of 1%. yields up by a couple basis points. the 10 year, 2.85. lisa: honestly, that is amazing. if you look at size and scope, that is the highest since going back to 2018. it is be driven back. -- an 8:30 a.m. call. this comes as y

goldman sachs is a second., but i hear if just based on my sources are telling me, that they expect morgan stanley to pay a fine. how big of a fine i can't tell you. usually there's unusually some sort of agreement to better your practices on block trading. again we don't think this is a criminal case. my legal sources who are involved in this thing and there's a lot of firms that are involved in this because the sec investigation, basically they first covered every firm. it went on for i heard years they've been looking at this stuff. it picked up during the bill hua ng investigation, as you know, today was indicted on securities fraud charges. liz: arrested. he's been released on bail. charlie: now how does that have to do with this? he was a major client of major firms so that caused him to speed up essentially and gave impetus to this broader look at block trading and whether inside information is filed or is shared. now i just want to say i don't have the charges in front of me. i can't guarantee morgan st

i want to tell our viewers we were going to have jeff currie of goldman sachs on today.e will get you back on tomorrow to talk about oil and gas we are having technical issues i want to tell our viewers we're working on it. lindsey, you and i are getting a lot of time. >> i love it >> i feel like -- it's great by the way, 5:45 in morning. whatever time. why not? i feel like the angel doom higher this and higher that. let's be optimistic. we all talked about it or a lot of us talked about the roaring '20s that was before inflation roared in and obviously before putin decided to start his unwinnable war in ukraine if you have to be bullish about the consumer or stock market or both, lindsey, what would it be? >> you know i'm the half glagl glass full gal i'm optimistic inflation can come down in the latter half of the year that can give consumer the relief that consumer is in a healthy position versus entering the pan demo demo demic. they beabsorbed better money th last couple years. they are really putting that to good use you see that in the tax refunds. they are using

betsy: i can speak to goldman obviously.und goldman sachs or jpm, the investment banks recover, of this a couple of things going on. investment banking revenue is down a lot year on year, extraordinarily low levels and also high-yield issuance has come back quite meaningfully in the corridor. i think it is well known. we all follow the data, it's expected by the street. trading is the whole back fixed income i'm estimating a decline year-over-year for trading. this is where we could be surprised. fixed income, of the volatility and volume are so high, could it end up giving us a positive surprise we are not looking for. guy: mixed message coming out of these trading debts and what's going on here. talk to us about what's can i happen with provisioning and buybacks. betsy: on the provisioning side we have slightly higher levels of provisioning then consensus does. part of the reason is running our numbers ahead of the quarter i am thinking we have got at that point we had a slight inversion in the curve, we have the war going

goldman sachs downgrading it to sell after that news ibb, that tracks it, down 3%, lowest level sincebank slashing its forecast for this year david malpass on whether the war in ukraine and spiking food and energy prices could spark a recession. welcome to your world. your why. what drives you? what do you want to leave behind? that's your why. it's your purpose, and we will work with you every step of the way to achieve it. at fidelity, your dedicated advisor will work with you on a comprehensive wealth plan across your full financial picture. a plan with tax-smart investing strategies designed to help you keep more of what you earn. this is the planning effect. you're a one-man stitchwork master. but your staffing plan needs to go up a size. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates matching your job description. visit indeed.com/hire >>> the world bank today slashing its global growth forecast this year to 3.2%, down big from the previous estimate of 4.1%, as countries deal with the war in ukraine to inflation to the

amanda lynam of goldman sachs on credit. jp morgan yesterday and asked him about 2018, and said with qt would have the same result. he really takes a very different view on what took place in 2018. he said a lot of that session risk around the fed hiking story was born out of the trade war between the u.s. and china, and he believes that was the catalyst for the weakness and the growth scare, and the fed was just everything on top. he thinks this time could be different. lisa: that is fascinating. i do wonder about the idea of quantitative tightening actually causing longer-term yields to go lower, that it would slow the economy enough that you would see some sort of flight into duration, and how this would really help credit. high-yield bonds are now yielding on average almost 6.6% if you take a look at the bloomberg barclays index. remember when they were yielding under 4%? if you look at the incredible increase, and a lot of this is because of the rates story, people are saying i can always get that 7.5%, 8% that a lot of

goldman wrote the book, right? >> yeah.k is fabulous >>> the other note we let slip by is axp. jp morgan cuts fully reflected in the multiple we're talking about consumer spend. >> i thought it was such a fact use downgrade. steve is doing a great job people are traveling like mad. tv is coming back. he's talking about the internal. wait until the end of the day but i would be a buyer and not a seller that company is levered to the best story out there not the comprise. >> right to come back to what we started the program today. twitter shares up over 2%. good luck trying to figure out what elon musk is thinking it's not easy. >> must be so weak at 4:00 a.m. >> so much has been shared on twitter. back and forth between the company and mr. musk my communications he's had with the company began some time ago is with the ceo. the largest single share hold we are the company that filed a d that indicated he might buy more or sell. something of great value there. >> he's no longer -- can you buy -- >> yeah. yeah i mean, yeah he'

goldman and morgan stanley hit the tape today. ericsson's numbers are hitting the tape.lose margins, they are narrowing. this is on the big gear maker in the telecom sector. margins slipped to 42.3. operationally, it is a big, big miss, 4.8 billion and the market have penciled in 6.44. that is a monster miss. dani: it really is. net sales did beat ever so slightly, 55.1. the estimate was for 53.6. it is that thinning of margins which is really hitting ericsson, getting to that operating profit, which has missed estimates. 6.4, coming in 4.8 alien krona. -- billion krona. manus: we will return to ericsson later. we've got the ceo coming up. he will speak to the team about the results, about the numbers in about an hour. he will join anna and the team. what's going on in the bond markets? do you buy this narrative that everybody has decided to write about peak inflation? core goods drop. it's a reason why two-year notes have imploded by 20 basis points and why the rates market have repriced, do you really buy that? dani: i personally don't buy we are at peak inflation. whe

tom: that internet goldman sachs said that on the show a couple days ago.or market is shockingly tight. does that lead to the wage spiral michelle meyer just spoke about? >> we have a lot of other factors pushing inflation down. the key thing to focus on is if the labor market is this tight, what's going to happen to wage inflation. five and wage inflation is not consistent with 2% inflation objective. you need to push the unemployment rate up and that's the problem. every time the federal reserve had to push the unemployment rate up, they have ended up in full-scale recession. it's not going to occur in the near term because the fed has not yet made monetary policy tight. it might not even happen in 2020 three because we don't know how aggressive they are going to be in terms of tightening monetary policy. inflation will get more entrenched and they will have to do it later so a hard landing is inevitable whether it happens in 23 or 24. jonathan: how do you think they will respond to a mechanical pecan inflation this year? >> they are going to take some si

we will talk with joe walsh -- joe wall of goldman sachs next. bloomberg. ♪ kailey: small business owners say it is getting rough out there. a new survey from goldman sachs found that inflation, supply chain issues, and workforce challenges are having a negative impact on small businesses. joining us now is joe wall, goldman sachs national director of 10,000 small businesses voices. right to speak with you. 91% of small business owners say broader economic trends are having a negative impact on their business. that is the vast majority. which issue, inflation, labor, is the greatest for them? joe: thank you for having me on this morning, we have done now 12 surveys dating back over the last two years of our small business community. we started at the beginning of the pandemic and have seen sort of the roller coaster that has occurred over the last two years your get our most recent survey in january acutely spotted that inflation supply chain issues and workforce challenges were obviously weighing on small business owners to a significant degree.

it only fell about 1% which is good for goldman.t: we were looking for a drop in the beak the street's estimates by like $1 billion. sonali: that's a good sign, especially currencies and emerging arc is for really solid gains. citigroup is another place that could bode well for trading if they are able to keep those numbers. the other thing jp morgan said that was positive about prime balances that are high. the buy side is also ready to be taking risks. to be clear, volatility is a double-edged sword. they took losses tied to the russian securities as well as that big nickel client, $220 million loss. jon: when i was listening on "surveillance," you highlighted the loan growth component. it is hard not to think is a good to the other bank earnings everyone will look closely at that as a gauge of what comes ahead for the rest of the year. sonali: the first bank tomorrow is wells fargo. jp morgan has been expanding the headcount. it's been investing in the payments infrastructure. they are getting bigger in the wallet and credit card

bank sector taking a hit on the back of those earnings results tomorrow more earnings from citi, goldman sachs, morgan stanley and wells fargo. joining us now, david ellison, and from capital markets, another guest as well. seeing reaction in jpm shares deteriorate what are you hearing? what are biggest concerns? >> sara, i think number one issue here with jpmorgan chase is their capital levels. as you saw there, cet-1 ratio, common equity, regulatory capital ratio fell to about 11.9% from 13.1% the reason it fell, they had to mark down securities and available for sale portfolio and also increased risks in trading and counterparting losses. i think that's a real issue for many investors, because they announced authorization for $30 billion share buyback but may be limited bawd of where the capital is today. >> the question, how much bad news is already in the stock down now almost 20% from the lows what do you do are you a buyer? >> yep we would say for long-term investors, absolutely. this is going to about real choppy year for companies like jpmorgan chase with their global footprint.

and i appreciate doc's self-analysis, but stay away from my goldman.they did beat top to bottom, which is unbelievable in this environment. so, look, the cream rises to the top. this is one of the best franchises in financials b of a, of course, i own it being another and they'll have a decent quarter relative to expect egg expectations and to the point that everything is priced into the market, i guess this wasn't and to the point that the market is a bear market look at the stock after earnings and i will continue to own it and it's one that i've not shared and the yield curve will steepen and they'll do well regardless keep your comments to itself >> shannon, do you buy that that these things are going do well i mean, because the stocks are meh, right >> it's been a challenging time. we've been very diversified. we own j.p. morgan, but we've been diversifying our financials' exposure exchanges on names like schwab because we think that will be a continued challenging environment for large money center banks over the course of the next couple of quar

we own jbm, goldman and bank of america.i suffers from being too global and in the environment we're in now it will only be on to further pressure and we don't see the turnaround occurring as deep as we would like and we have to raise capital to redeploy >> weiss you have said on numerous occasions how much you like bank of america and brian moynihan and the job he's done and you own it and you own goldman sachs, but i'm told that you are, quote, reevaluating your positions in the financials. what does that mean? >> well, you know, nobody's talking about including wolf is you will have a pretty bad quarter on the investment banking side of these banks. it doesn't take a genius to see that there's been a lack of issuance in the first quarter the spacs are done and you've only seen a couple of those and who knows why anyone would buy a spac at this point, but there's been crickets and those are the highest margin products that the investment banks have and the investment bank and meaning b of a's bank and it's got a broader bu

goldman -- goldman sachs has companies that are make the transition happen.is year but exposure to clean energy is certainly a catalyst for the names. >> well, and right now we're talking about natural gas prices spiking. this is a major cost contributor to the cost of electricity what's it going to take to speed up the transition plans? are these high prices going to be one of those catalysts or do the names you mention, does that stand in the way >> they all make some of these equipments that need to transmit power, but basically, we have the most solar and wind tends to be not where most of it is consumed we're talking middle america we're talking coasts the projects case a lot of regulatory challenges. a lot of people don't want high voltage power lines in their backyard it's a little bit of a disconnect between what we need and what's possible, and it can take more than ten years to build. while that's on the future horizon, there's certainly a lot of steps in the way right now. >> it's such an obvious need thank you very much. >>> coming up, 2021 was a

this is interesting to me, because goldman led that ipo. what do you make of the story?ake it down to two parts. first of all if we just deal with the hypocrisy sentiment that we started our little interview with, talk about hypocrisy, so what you do is take a company public like robinhood, you get the public involved, and then insiders secretly sell that stock, and so that is really basically almost on the side of criminal, but with that said, ipo's in general in 2021, there were 110, excuse me, $440 billion invested into ipo's so far in 2022 only 20 companies have done so, and we're only looking at about 2 billion, of course we're only a quarter of the way in, so ipo 's in general, they don't like volatility, they don't like inflation, they don't like the idea that we have political instable and geopolitical in stability, and so that's part of it. now, with hood itself, right now their losses are mounting, their revenues and subscribers are dropping. they are talking about in 2023 losses that are to the tune of $180 million or more actually, so yeah, i think that what