i want to look at goldman here relative to the s&p. we know that the s&p is out performing hyg by a great margin, and goldman is under performing in the s&p, so what my eye sees is this. you can draw your lines like that with a breaking trend, by all accounts, no way to characterize it, and a throw back right back to the trend line and starting to struggle. and you can draw it with your head and shoulders top, to my eye, we have a risk of breaking here. we close at 176 and go to about 160. that would imply about a 7% to 9% move depending on where you get your tradeoff. >> what is your take what is your trade. >> looking at it fundamentally if all you did was look at their earnings, it would not look that bad. something on that order for the year. one times book value that is not historically expensive for the financials but it is more expensive for some of the other stocks that seema was just pointing out. one of the things that everybody say that's is bullish about financials is that the rate hike situation would be bullish for them.

so i want to look at goldman here welltive to the s&p. the s&p is outperforming hyg by a great margin. so what my eyes sees is this and you can draw your lines like that with a break in trend by all accounts, no way to characterize it and a throwback right to the trend line and starting to struggle. you can also draw it with your head and shoulders top. to my eye we have a risk of breaking here, we close at 176 and go to about 160. that would imply about a 7 to 9% move depending on where you get your tradeoff. >> all right. worth a look. mike, what is your take? what is your trade. >> so looking at it fundamentally if all you did is look at their earnings it doesn't look that bad. 17.50 a share. it's one times book value which is not expensive for the financials but it is more expensive than the other stocks. so one of the things that everybody has said that's really bullish about financials is that the rate hike situation would be bullish for them. the problem is we're not expecting really strong rate hikes. if the market is starting to

here's julianna goldman. >> i think that's especially appropriate here in iowa. >> reporter: with less than two months to go before the first voting contest, victories are not guaranteed for hillary clinton. according to the latest cbs battleground polls, vermont senator bernie sanders is just five points behind clinton in iowa, and in new hampshire, he's beating her by 14 points. >> if we can win in iowa. if we can win in new hampshire, i think we're on our way to a national victory and one of the great political upsets in the modern history of america. >> reporter: on cbs thursday morning, sanders said he's not seeding any ground, but he continued to accuse the democratic national committee of politician favorites with the party's front-runner ad any continued fallout of last week's breech of clinton campaign voter data. >> i believe the action of the dnc to basically shut us off we have put into that base, the lifeblood of our campaign, was totally inappropriate. >> oh, my goodness. >> reporter: one staffer was fired and two others have been suspended pending an investigation into w

here's julianna goldman. >> i think that's especially appropriate here in iowa. >> reporter: with less than two months to go before the first voting contest, victories are not guaranteed for hillary clinton. according to the latest cbs senator bernie sanders is just five points behind clinton in iowa, and in new hampshire, he's beating her by 14 points. >> if we can win in iowa. if we can win in new hampshire, i think we're on our way to a nanaonal victory and one of the great political upsets in the modern history of america. >> reporter: on "cbs this morning," sanders said he's not ceding any ground, but he continued to accuse the democratic national committee of playing favorites with the party's front-ruer amid the continued fallout of last week's breech of clinton campaign voter data. >> i believe the action of the dnc to basically shut us off from all of the information that we have put into that base, the lifeblood of our campaign, was totally inappropriate. >> oh, my goodness. >> reporter: one staffer was fired anantwo others have been suspended pendndg an inveveigation into wh

here. there are no february options in goldman sachs. you can pay $4 for that spread. that is a little over 25% of the distance. >> so i think that, you know, listen goldman is down almost 20% from the highs here. i think it feels a little pressed. things got ugly this week in a lot of risk asset classes. if we continue to go down into it, we are likely to have a sharp snap back. we had a massive 2% rally last friday. it bookended a little with what is going on today. >> when you see volatility, if you're thinking bearish or neutral, you're risking a little less than 3% -- >> any trade that we talk about tonight, wednesday it fed day. isn't that a overhanging -- any trade, we don't know what it will say or do. >> all bets could be off. >> they could raise rates by 50%. >> we will be frozen on monday and tuesday. >> once you are safely in front of a computer, check out our website for everything options, action that is options action at cnbc.com. in the meantime, here is what is coming up next. >> that is what is happening to your portfolio, but fear not, we'll show you

here's julianna goldman. >> thank you, good night and may the force be with you. (cheers and applause) >> reporter: feeling the force behind her, a confident hillary clinton deflected attacks from bernie sanders and martin o'malley while setting her sights on the republicans, especially donald trump. >> he is becoming isis' best recruiter. they are going to people, showing videos of donald trump, insulting islam and muslims. >> reporter: on sundayed gop frontrunner says those claims are unsubstantiated. >> it's just another hillary lie, she lies like crazy about everything. >> reporter: instead of personal insults, democrats last night focused on policy disputes. >> our differences are fairly deep. >> reporter: moses of the debate covered national security. sanders once again hit clinton on her 2003 vote to authorize the iraq war. >> secretary clinton is too much into regime change and a little bit too aggressive. >> reporter. >> senator, you voted for regime change with respect to libya. >> reporter: and on the economy. >> should corporate america love hillary cl

here's julianna goldman. >> thank you, good night, and may the force be with you. >> reporter: feeling the force behind her, a confident hillary clinton deflected attacks from bernie sanders and martin o'mally while setting her sights on the republicans, especially donald trump. >> he is becoming isis' best recruiter. they are going to people, showing videos of donald trump insulting islam and muslims -- >> reporter: sunday the gop front-runner says those claims are unsubstantiated. like crazy. about everything. >> reporter: instead of personal insults democrats last night focused on policy disputes. >> our differences are fairly >> reporter: most of the debate covered national security. sanders once again hit clinton on her 2003 vote to authorize the iraq war. >> secretary clinton is too much into regime change and a little bit too aggressive -- >> senator, you voted for regime change with respect to libya. >> reporter: and on the economy. >> should corporate america love hillary clinton? >> everybody should. and wall street is going to like me even less. >> reporter: o'mally, who's t

here's julianna goldman. >> i love you, too. >> reporter: hours before a bruising poll showed donald hrump losing steam in iowa, he was in south carolina, taking on the e.p.a., gun control, and his proposal to bar muslims from entering the u.s. >> we don't want people coming in and knocking down world trade centers and having what happened last week in california. >> reporter: last night, he took aim at ted cruz in iowa, where some polls show the texas senator in first place and where religious conservatives dominate the republican caucuses. >> i do like ted cruz, but not a lot of evangelicals come out of cuba, in all fairness. >> reporter: saturday's poll shows iowa evangelicals overwhelmingly backing cruz. the two have played nice during the campaign but not so nice since these off help camera comments came out this week. the "new york times" obtained audio of cruz at a private fund- raiser saying he was the electable conservative who could take on the establishment, not trump or ben carson. >> reporter: today, trump acknowledged the gloves are coming off. >> we've had a very good

. >>> hello, i'm greg sherwood and i'm happy to have bob goldman as my guest here in the kqed studio., thanks for joining us. what fun to have you here. >> delighted to be here. >> i can't wait to talk to you more. bob is a bay area financial planner who works with individual investors and he's here to share some of his secrets of successful retirement planning. bob is a member of the garrett planning network and the national association of personal financial advisors, and his work has appeared in the new york times and the wall street journal. you have probably heard him, as i have, as he's a frequent guest on "forum" on

here's julianna goldman. >> thank you, good night, and may the force be with you. >> reporter: feeling the force hind her, a confident hillary clinton deflected attacks from bernie sanders and martin o'mally while setting her sights on the republicans, especially donald trump. >>e is becoming isis' best they are going to people, showing videos of donald trump insulting islam and muslims -- >> reporter: sunday the gop front-runner says those claims are unsubstantntted. >> another hillary lie, she lies like crazy. about everything. >> reporter: instead of personal insults democrats last night focused on policy disputes. >> our differences are fairly deep. >> reporter: most of the debate covered national security. sanders once again hit clinton on her 2003 vote to authorize the iraq war. >> secretary clinton is too much into regime change and a little bit too aggressive -- >> senator, you voted for regime change with respect to libya. >> reporter: and on the economy. >> should corporate america love hillary clinton? >> everybody should. >> they ain't going to like me, and wall street is g

goldmans have even talked about $20 a barrel here. so i guess bad news for the oil companies, but, hey, on the bright side, american motorists might be a little happier in 2016. back to you. >> might? i would say definitely, jeff. thank you. >>> jeff cutmore live from london. okay. still ahead here on "way too early," army sergeant bowe bergdahl in his own words for the first time. >> 20 minutes out i'm going, good grief, i'm in over my head. suddenly it really starts to sink in, i really did something bad. >> several new developments in the controversial prisoner swap involving congress, the white house, and yes the record breaking podcast serial. that story plus a check on your weather friday when "way too early" comes right back. [meow mix jingle slowly and quietly plucks] right on cue. [cat meows] ♪meow, meow, meow, meow... it's more than just a meal, it's meow mix mealtime. with great taste and 100% complete nutrition, it's the only one cats ask for by name. tcount on someone's kid mistaking me for santa. i'm so sorry. come on sw

whether it hasw changed the business here goldman sachs makes the argument persuasively that as soonucer in the business is profitable and those will be flipped back on like a switch. >> there are other businesses that depend on oil and in some cases benefit. one of the other companies that is the south korean petrochemical company. it's margins are higher when oil prices go down. it has been adding capacity in those prices and bought a business from samsung that was a chemical business. i think the most interesting thing is not so much what is going on with oil prices but what is going on with management of the company. there is a tussle for control. the older brother of the chairman of the company tried to have them ousted through their father. instead, the father got sidelined to an honorary position and apparently in korea, this got a lot of attention. these things usually happen behind the scenes. >> a textbook example of why that country needs reform. >> it sounds like game of thrones. it is pretty exciting, pretty dramatic. you.lie, thank good stocks to watch. we will be back

here is a stock breaking out. thermo fisher, science. the ceo is speaking next week at a goldman conference. >> i'm melissa lee. we'll >> my mission is simple, to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. hey, i'm cramer, welcome to "mad money." other people want to make friends, i'm trying to save you a little money. my job is to teach and coach you, so call me or tweet me at jim cramer. nobody, i remember, nobody likes to be disciplined. they don't like to be admonished. and they don't like to follow the

right now they are gaining more than 3%, up by 3.3% here since the movie premiered yesterday. goldmanachs analysts regular estimates for the new star wars films to nearly $2 billion. that's up by one third from the last estimate of $1.5 billion. another company to talk about his coach. shares arising for a second aro. today up without by 4.2%. this is after getting a second analyst recommendation in two days. hope shares will outperform the market perform with a $38 price target. that's one day after raising the call on the retailer trade they are convinced that coach can deliver better sales this quarter on a wider range of gift products. talking about gift products, visa is holding on to opening gains we saw this morning. right now is training near --sion highs, up about two two and two thirds percent right now. goldman cites market share gains in the u.s., as well as long-term growth potential over in china by the end of 2016. finally, one more stock to look at -- lumbar liquidators. it's having its best day since 2007. look at this. it looks like it's at session highs as well. 37.

here. >> point out the stock began tanking friday, the day after whitney tillson said he covered his short because goldmanhs said it's a sell. this is a problem. here's what we do know, as i'm doing this and losing my voice. company insiders are pressing the bull case on the stock. part of the bull case is that it will be sold to possibly to a private equity firm. they're telling investors the fundamentals are good, but here's the key, we were talking earlier today. the value of this thing, the market share of lumber liquidators since the issue came up about flooring being contaminated, big "60 minutes" piece tanked drastically. in the 50s, down to where it is today, $16 a share. tilson doesn't think there was fraud involved. company saw that as a way to get back in the game and pressing the bull case with investors and one issue that they're raising with investors is these are people that hold the stock and may hold the stock. they're saying that this thing probably is takeover bait at some point, a private equity firm could be buying, that's what they're saying. liz: charlie, you sent the tweet out at 3

peakme point if we hit storage for distillates here in europe, goldman thinks that that could happenfiners -- and winter gear. year.winter next brent becausesure we will feel pressure globally. the other thing you have to watch, betty, is sentiment. sometimes fundamentals just do not matter. this shows the shirt term -- the short term for pti. you could see a lot of short covering and wti could see a strong rally. the issue is do we want to pay $20 a barrel as the sentiment piles up, betty? betty: thank you, alix, for this -- for those big factors on oil next year. oil has been lengthy balance sheets of energy companies. some analysts say even with all of the factors that we saw from drops to $20 ail barrel, earnings will not be hurt anymore. could that be true? we want to bring in the reporter for us.e that story ok, what is the reasoning behind this? reporter: a lot has to do with oil andge behind $100 $40 oil has already been done. so, the earning pinch we have seen on the energy sectors is over with and we can see the benefit from consumers spending more money on cheaper gas. bet

goldman sachs downgraded from buy to neutral. buy it >> thanks for watching. keep it here. the number one business block continues with "cashin' in." >> it is very easy in hindsight to criticize the decision based on results that the decider could never have known. it is also easy to criticize the decision when you have no responsibility for the outcome of the decision. >> damned if you do, damned if you don't. police defend the l.a. school district for shutting down over a massive terror threat this week. new york, houston and miami getting similar threats but refusing to close. who immediate the right decision? i'm eric bolling. welcome to "cashin' in." this week, michelle fields, jonathan hoenig. welcome, everybody. nerve gas, bombs in lockers, machine pistols and grenades. which school district did the right thing? >> it's tricky. you have to keep in mind that they just had the san bernardino attacks and the terrorist who committed the attacks in san bernardino reportedly had planned to go after a school. we have this in mind. it was fresh on their minds about what happ

what is missing here, jeff. goldman sachs highlighted this -- need a catharsis.aven't observed that, do i need a lower price to develop a motion that clears your world? we are very close to a cathartic moment. tom: why don't i see balance adjustment yet? it was too many christmas parties right now? expect this anomaly of consolidation to the industry by the third quarter. stephanie: management says the smaller guys will just get choked out? medium-size will do that to the smaller ones, and the larger ones will do to the medium-sized ones. david: shale production i believe he can bring online quickly and is not that expensive. is that changing the marketplace? >> undoubtedly, the one new that it is doing that oil has elasticity to price. but theup, a goes down, adjustment is non-instantaneous. we should is in the adjustment a year ago. these companies are very resilient. people often talk about that being the mud of time to get a shale well back up. are two levels of production. we have uncompleted wells come as we model it we can see 500,000 barrels a day surging

here. one day they're not due to gun violence, due to violence, period. and now i'm in a situation where my voice can be heard. >> reporter: juliana goldman, cbs news, washington. >> interesting concept. >>> a reprieve for actor robert downey jr. why the "iron man" star could once again step into a voting news." here's a little healthy advice. eat well, live well, and take of what makes you, you. right down to your skin with aveeno aveeno daily moisturizing lotion with the goodness of active naturals oat and 5 vital nutrients for healthier looking skin in just one day. healthy skin equals beautiful skin. and for shower softness, add the body wash, too! aveeno naturally beautiful results when cigarette cravings hit, all i can thinabout is getting relief. only nicorette mini has a patented fast-dissolving formula. it starts to relieve sudden cravings fast. i never know when i'll need relief. that's why i only choose nicorette mini. aspartame free diet pepsi. just one sip [ahh] >>> here's a look at today's forecast in some cities around the country. >>> here's another look at this morning's top stories. violent christmas evweather rolled through the country yeste

here very easily. >> fedex getting some optimism at goldman with the bank saying they see a 20% up side for this stock. steve. >> yeah. i think that's true. it goes into what's happening in the cloud and what's happening with amazon. however, here's my caution. remember when they missed some deliveries. it's disappointing they didn't learn from ups's examples in the prior two years. you just got it right this we're, amazon said that's both educationary for amazon because the major expenses are fleeing, and cautionary for these guys. there's positive up side to the stock. you know, i bought you out to come around midyear. $336 million of some of its 2020 notes. john. they had a deal with dominion about mauer, solar power in particular, of course, which is what sune is all about. stock has made a wonderful move off of $2.50 and is now over $5 again. people may start looking at this, but there are so many others in the space that i'm more interested in. >> i got torg with elan musk. if i would have held it, solar city, stey. if i would have held it, i would have won the contest. i bought it because we ha

here is a stock breaking out. thermo fisher, science. the ceo is speaking next week at a goldman conference. >> i'm melissa lee. we'll >> my mission is simple, to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. hey, i'm cramer, welcome to "mad money." other people want to make friends, i'm trying to save you a little money. my job is to teach and coach you, so call me or tweet me at jim cramer. nobody, i remember, nobody likes to be disciplined. they don't like to be admonished. and they don't like to follow the rules. i don't blame them. i was a rambunctious kid myself when i started to manage my own money at first i didn't know the rules and when i learned them, i sprang them because i didn't believe they could help or cut off my upside. even if they cushioned the inevitable downside. the rules kept me from making a huge amount of money when things were going gangbusters in order to keep me from losing money when things went badly. >> the house of pain. >> the rules i'm discussing keep you i

senior retail analyst from goldman sachs, thank you for being here.re sweater to a cruise, i would like to point that out. but i do not want that for christmas. [laughter] >> take it on the cruise. priced in thekets cost. david: welcome back. we're still here with daniel plants and we want to talk about investing ideas. executives in the fast food and construction sectors are citing wage pressure as a headwind and we celebrated the wage increase. as the market priced in this inflation of wages? daniel: that is our biggest risk factor. when we look at where we are for the end of this year, this is a big week for data. adp numbers this morning, chairwoman yellen will talk today and tomorrow we will get the ecb. we will have the job number on friday. i think the birth of what is acceptable is pretty wide for this data. i think you could argue that the market, with its obsession over these data points through the end of 2015, has probably overpriced risk and not thought enough about 2016. what we are seeing are comments from companies in retail, restauran

at the financial sector, especially lit name we highlight here, we think they're really well positioned looking out 12 months. >> you like goldmanachs and j.p. morgan is a top holding in one of the funds here. are they going to benefit? are those the ones -- i mean goldman sachs would benefit most from fixed income or increased trading. j.p. morgan on the lending side. why do you have these two holdings? >> sure. goldman sachs, i think roughly book value per share is where the stock is trading. you know, producing a low double digit roe. i think they're poised to really generate really strong returns whether it's from the very nice m & a psych that will we're having and the trading business can pick up from here. j.p. morgan, obviously, has leverage to higher rates with a quarter of the balance sheet invested in cash or cash-like securities. and then other name we like a lot in the space, sill con valley bank, a stock that's been hit very hard. and, you know, i think the financial sector as a whole is set up well for next year. >> is it concerning to hear about the reports of some of the pre-ipo companies, the unicorns being kno

here. lisa: [laughter] brendan: one more quick question about goldman sachs.t it and they said it is still about commodities producers. they are looking at mining and oil. is that really the story right now? sell a certain point you what you have to sell. they might not be selling those, even though that's what they want to be selling and it can percolate out to the rest of the market. all right, thank you, lisa abramowicz, our bloomberg at fly columnist. orrch for it on the terminal search for bloomberg gadfly on the web. "what'd you miss?" is next. here's a look at stocks, little bit of green on the day. ♪ alix: -- scarlet: we are moments away from the closing bell. ♪ [closing bell] alix: u.s. stocks rebounding, the s&p bouncing back coming to its chief level since 2006. scarlet: the question is, "what'd you miss?" some fundst carnage, are liquidated. how bad could withdrawals be? the fed alert, we discussed the mechanics behind a fed increase. alix: oil fallout, crude dipping for the first time in six years below $45 per barrel. which companies are feeling

here on cbs. >>> julianna goldman takes us good morning. temps are cooler this morning in the 30s so grab a jacket early today. the weather stays mild and dry today with highs near 57. rain moves in late saturday afternoon with thunderstorms saturday night and off and on rain showers on sunday. temps take a big tumble next week with more seasonable self. dad: no? culligan man: no. anncr: leave it to the experts. with a culligan whole-house water softening system, you get better water, and service you can actually count on. e you can actually count on. >>> diamonds, they're always nice for the holidays. but your hometown jerusalemwelry store has nothing on a mom and pop shop in washington that opens its doors to players past and present. julianna goldman is at the tiny jewel box. julianna, good morning. >> reporter: good morning. this is tiny jewel box. once upon a time it was known for vintage jewels, but now with diamonds like this 8-carat stunner, it's become a go-to for washington's movers and shakers. glittering diamonds, sparkling emer

course, is these lower prices. 36 bucks is the next support level to really watch here, but if we take that out, goldmanachs called for $20 oil earlier this year. it was not the base case but a lot of people on the trading floor are talking about that again, brian. >> i'll tell what you, jackie, when goldman came out with that note and we had the commodity guy, jeff curry, on the show, everybody was scoffing at him, making fun of goldman sachs saying they're fear mongers, their call is getting more attention. here is the interesting thing, you know the headlines tomorrow will be oil hits seven-year low. it's actually almost a decade low because the prices we hit back in '09, if you adjust for inflation as you always should, we're almost at a 12-year low for the price of oil. >> i saw your analysis. i saw your analysis before and i actually -- i think that's brilliant to put it in those terms and back to the point that you made about goldman sachs, everyone loves to say goldman sachs was wrong last time when they called for $200 oil but that's not to say necessarily they may be wrong again. it's somethin