the point being that the banks have not acted well of late and goldmann is underperforming the banks so with that i wanted to start with maybe the problem or what we all know is going on. this of course is the etf that most closely tracks what's going on in the high yield bond market and i would say the word ugly comes to mind or maybe something along the lines of train wreck, disaster, crisis. here is the picture of again, hyg relative to the s&p. and we know the correlation broke down when qe basically started the equities, been able to continue and yet, hyg has not bought into the extra help from the fed, if you will. so i want to look at goldman here welltive to the s&p. the s&p is outperforming hyg by a great margin. so what my eyes sees is this and you can draw your lines like that with a break in trend by all accounts, no way to characterize it and a throwback right to the trend line and starting to struggle. you can also draw it with your head and shoulders top. to my eye we have a risk of breaking here, we close at 176 and go to about 160. that would imply about a 7 to 9% mo