google because google is the default search engine on ios. it's apple care, and so it's a really diverse set of businesses it's recently install base driven, and when something is install base driven, it doesn't have as much as a transactional element. you're not going to see the big highs, and the big lows like you do on iphone sales, and that's part of the reason why you didn't see a beat this quarter on the transactional businesses, demand was better than the street had forecast. the service business is more install based driven it's a diversified portfolio, it came in line with expectations we believe this business can continue to grow at double digits for the next several years. >> tony, it's david. you know, a broad question here, if i might we were speaking in the last hour to david katz, a long time value investor, and questioning multiples. i believe you downgraded tesla based on valuation what kind of conversations are you having with clients in terms of how you look at things and whether there's anything to be gained by downgrading on valuation, when it seems it doesn't matter given how much momentum is behind these names. >> sure. david, i think you raise, you know, a couple of interesting points one is more broadly, the kinds of conversations we're having with investors are, you know, when is tech overdone. tech is out performed now seven years in a row this would be the 8th year it's dramatically outperformed this year, and we are seeing multiples, particularly for growth tech stocks at very elevated levels versus history, and so i think investors are struggling with the fact that fundamentals are clearly better for tech but at the same time, valuations are much higher there is increased risk in technology, and i think investors are struggling with that there's also been this big rotation within the market, sort of the largest rotation we have seen in the last 20 years, growth stocks versus value stocks, and that's also a question specifically around tesla, we just had a disconnect. we believe in many of the attributes and advantages that tesla has, but we were really struggling to justify valuation that was more than $900 a share, so we had a disconnect with our rating, which was a neutral rating and a target price of $900, and we had to bring those in sign. we didn't change our view on tesla. we saw the stock run up an enormous amount and try to be true to valuation approaches and that resulted in an under performed rating. >> yeah, well, it's a lot higher than 900 bucks i mean, do you really believe it's ever going to retreat to a level like that? >> look, i think there are market factors that work, and execution factors that work. we, you know, as i mentioned had an enormous rotation, and out performance by growth oriented stocks and, certainly if we had a rotation away, we could see underperformance from a lot of growth stocks, and tesla is the poster child for growth. manufacture, expectations are getting heavier and heavier. that's certainly possible, but that expectation is now built into numbers, and the higher the multiple a stock is, the more penalized it might be if it does fall short of expectations tesla could continue to do well, if it ultimately executes and if the market continues to reward growth there's much more risk with the stock at these levels than there was three and six months ago. >> tony, how much of that risk is around these new competitors getting into the market. we have been talking about niccola, how much does that play into your $900 price target? >> not all that much the eb market, a little over 2 million units per year is going to go up 20 fold over the next 20 years there's lots of room for competition to grow and in parallel with tesla. i think where our valuation is centered is what you have to believe. to get to $900 a share, which is our price target, we have to believe that tesla sells 6 million cars per year in 2030. that's more than the combined size of mercedes and bmw today, and we have to believe it becomes the size of volkswagen, which is the largest car manufacturer by 2050 and we would need to have 10 to 12% margins at tesla so tesla is basically saying we're going to be way more profitable we're going to be a mass market car dpacompany, and we're going be may more profitable than a mass market car company by 2050, and that gets us to a valuation of around $900 a share that's purely our concern. it's not that, oh, tesla won't be a significant player going forward. it's that the market is baking in tesla being a very large player and having, you know, wildly profitable margins on top of that. >> really putting that $900 in context. we really appreciate you joining us today. >> thanks for having me. >>> we'll take a break here. still to come, he's got the third largest follower count on tiktok digital content creator zach king is going to join us next to talk about you know what in a moment we love our new home. there's so much space. we have a guestroom now. but, we have aunts. you're slouching again, ted. expired, expired... expired. thanks, aunt bonnie. it's a lot of house. i hope you can keep it clean. at least geico makes bundling our home and car insurance easy. which helps us save a lot of money oh, teddy. did you get my friend request? 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(doorbell ringing) aunt joni's here! for bundling made easy, go to geico.com. hello? what happens whene easy, puts its customers in charge? well, the good news gets shared. and it gets rated #1 for customer satisfaction. but don't just take our word for it. take theirs. it's your wireless. your rules. only with xfinity mobile. call, click or visit a store today. >>> the future of tiktok continues to be one of the key stories of the week. joining us to talk about that, the platform and what a ban or a sale might mean for the tiktok community is zach king, a tiktok influencer, currently has the third largest amount of followers on the platform. zach, it's great to have you thanks for being with us today. >> yeah, thanks for having me. >> you're no stranger to how this all works you were already a king on vine, and clearly now on tiktok. let me just start by asking what the community is saying about what may happen to the platform, whether it's a ban or a sale >> yeah, so when the news first broke, you saw a lot of tiktokers, half of them started saying follow me on instagram, you tube, all these socials, because you don't want all your eggs in one basket for followers. you see people a little confused on why the ban i think a lot of the young generation doesn't understand the idea that there could be security risks and wondering if those are true or if it's for, you know, other reasons. >> if it went to another large cap tech player. microsoft obviously the most obvious example at the moment, would that mean a big migration in terms of content creators >> i think you're going to see, i mean, we love the platform tiktok, it's got so much engagement on it that's where our audiences are, a large portion of them right now, and we hope the best for that platform. if it means going to a company like microsoft to bring that to the u.s. and make it more secure, then that's great. i mean, there's other worries, though, like can you do that transfer and have the management work with such an innovative company at the moment, which is tiktok, or will that actually be a killer in itself so there's kind of both camps there. >> we're looking at some samples of your work, and anybody who hasn't seen it already, should definitely it's not the typical, you know, kid with their parent dancing on tiktok, you take a lot of care in this stuff. is it your view right now that the technology or the platform allows you to do what you do better than any other platform >> yeah, the algorithm is incredible what it's done is it's levelled the playing field. if you're trying to crack into you tube right now, it's such an impossible game. it's doable but would take so much work. you have tiktok allowing people, i have even had staff members at my studio who have created accounts and gone viral and have several million followers for themselves creating whatever their niche is i think that's the power you have people like kambucha girl, and that goes viral, and now he's got a whole career out of it, and can transition to other platforms like you tube. so i think the fact that the algorithm picks up a user, sends it out, starts testing it among other people, and if it's good content, it keeps spreading it it's got a different level of viralty than we have ever seen in a platform before. >> julia boar sthere, a questiot transitioning from viralty, and you're also on all of these other platforms. i'm wondering how your experience is on tiktok in terms of making money from these followers, in terms of these other platforms. it seems like that ability to make money is what would be crucial to the long-term success of tiktok. >> you're absolutely right as a creator you have to be able to financially work a brand deal or commercial in there, like you tube has done so well, having a partner program that pays for ads, and that's incredibly important to the ecosystem whether it was in the conversation with tiktok getting banned if tiktok didn't get monetization in place this year anyway, i think you would start to see a migration from the platform, so it kind of comes at an interesting time where microsoft may be able to back them and help build that creator fund even better than, you know, they have announced now. >> and zach, i know some of your fellow tiktokers have left for a start up called triller, the number one app on the app store, similar to tiktok, same concept. what do you think about the idea of leaving for a start up where you might have more control of the money coming in? >> ultimately all the platforms are a wash in that way to me as a creator, you're not in control of your audience i tell young creators, you have to come up with other ways to directly engage them, whether it's e-mails or tech services where you can be direct communication to your followers. at some point, what facebook did years ago to make it their business was, we only have access to 1% of our audience, if we post without boosting it or incentivizing that post. even if we have 45 million followers on tiktok, forever, it won't always be a direct to everybody like it is now that's why i'm encouraging the younger creators, mid tier to smaller tier to capitalize and bring their audience, even if it's smaller to a dedicated place where they can talk to them >> hey, zach, it's david faber tiktok may get shut down for the chinese government for lack of a better term, spying on its users. do you have concern about that for yourself and the people following you? >> i don't have any concerns on that i'm not sure what access they have with the data i would be curious if microsoft bi buys it and they're able to look into that. i'm personally not i'm one of 300 million in the u.s. i don't think they're tracking me specifically, but i think what i have noticed in myself and the younger generation, we don't care as much as privacy, we would rather have open information for people, and technology >> right and again, back to this larger question of where you would go, where do you think you would spend the bulk of your time so to speak in terms of a platform if tiktok were to get shut down? >> well, there's two parts to that there's the creator's time, and the audience time, and the audience attention does have to go somewhere, migrating, disney plus, netflix, hulu or social, and that's going to go to probably you tube attention or instagram reels they're launching this at the perfect intersection there's a lot of interesting things in the ecosystem for creators i'm mostly going to be bummed because i think the space does need a lot more competition in it both to change the ad rates, to have options for creators, and where they can build their little ecosystems, and so i think that's out of the whole situation, if it gets banned, that will be the biggest bummer is that, you know, we lost a solid competitor in the industry >> right well, speaking of losing solid competitors, i wonder if you are as nostalgic for vine if i am, and if you ask yourself why some of these other ideas that seemed to have so much promise were taken away from us >> what's so interesting about vine was, you know, it was bought out by twitter a few years before it died, and i love the people at microsoft. i just spoke with them on a virtual event last week with trevor noah, and there are such innovative people there. it is the problem you're going to have, can the management let tiktok, whether microsoft or another tech company, can they bring that in house but allow them to do their magic and what's really working. that's going to be the question. >> yeah, i mean, we talk about that all the time, sort of absorbing different types of assets, keeping the culture in tact, rarely has it been with a public example it's going to be fascinating to watch if it happens. zach, we hope you'll come back great insight into technology that few understood up until a few months ago thanks >> later >> carl, that question could tiktok go the way of vine. more on microsoft's potential acquisition of tiktok. straight ahead, angel investor, jason calcanis weighs in and tells us why the app should be banned stay with us >>> welcome back, everybody. i'm sue herera here's your cnbc news update at this hour. in north carolina, a tornado spawned by tropical storm isaias levelled a mobile home park destroying at least ten homes and leaving only two standing. meanwhile, isaias is speeding up the eastern sea board at 35 miles per hour it is now approaching philadelphia sustained winds remain at 70 miles per hour just below hurricane strength. >>> in southern california, authorities say burning soot from a diesel truck likely started the so called apple fire which has now burned more than 26,000 acres and forced evacuations. and three people were shot and one of them was killed at a mansion party in the beverly hills area of los angeles. aerial footage shows dozens of people celebrating without masks or social distancing for that matter police did not break up the party, but they did issue parking tickets to cars lined up outside the mansion. >>> you are up to date that's the news update this hour carl, i'll see you later send it back to you. >> sue, thank you very much. >>> we'll continue our conversation about the future of tiktok with angel investor jason callicanis, when "squawk alley" continues in just a moment - [narrator] at southern new hampshire university, we're committed to making college more affordable. that's why we're keeping our tuition the same through the year 2021. - [student] i knew snhu was the place for me when i saw how affordable it was. - [narrator] find your degree at snhu.edu. >>> wii going to keep a close eye on shares of disney after they trade after the bell, after the close. we will get earnings from the entertainment giant. one key is what does the future look like for the theme parks. they have been opening for a period of time, and julia, somebody who covers the company as closely as you, i don't know to what extent we're going to get a forecast from bob chapek, the ceo, in terms of what he expects next year. do you have any sense? >> disney does not give tradition that will guidance, but usually give a sense of how theme park bookings are looking generally. i think it's interesting that the orlando park just started its reopening in july. we may get a sense of how that's going so far, and how much people are booking sort of near term versus long-term. so carl, it will be really interesting to watch that, as well as those streaming numbers for disney plus. >>> yeah, which continue to be years ahead of schedule as you know julia, i did notice this morning that bemo reiterated disney as a top pick but i'm not sure, david, what you think is most important. i mean, we know sort of the loss of the cash burn that comes from keeping the parks open at low capacity but it would also be good to get production back up in at least for, you know, get the backlog going for next year, and of course advertising the weakness continues to get reflected in names like google and our own parent last week. >> without a doubt advertising is still an important component. certainly we're going to want to see what's going on at espn, what ratings looks like. what the distributors feel like at this point, whether they want to continue or their subscribers want to continue payinghigh fees for limited sports programming. at least there is sports programming. we know court cutting is occurring at an even more rapid pace it's been accelerating, at least judging from the numbers we have gotten from large cable companies. carl, your point on production is an interesting one. you do begin to wonder julia, you may have insight on this as to whether there's going to be a large gap in terms of new programs on disney plus, on hbo max, on netflix, amazon prime, you name your provider, but it's a long period of time where there was nothing new in production, and a lot of people have had plenty of time to work through the libraries on all of those platforms. >> certainly prod