and austan goolsbee of the univsitysif chf ago's booth school of business. he served as president obama's chairman of the council of economic advisers until last yagr. to the extent mob set aside the rhetoric of the campaign if you can for a moment, tell us about the bigger picturer.. what strikes you most, what worries youost about the jobs picture now and in the coming years? yo well, i would say any reputable economist says every month don't just take any one month numbers, try to take a step back and look at the trend that's far more accurate in this. hethink if you look at trend the overall job creation has been relatively solid for the last three months. the overall growt rate of the economy is the most worrisome thing that it's been modest, you know, moderate growth. and that that is about the fastest growth rate of all the advanced countries of the world. i think the underlying fear that we have is this is not a strong period in the whole wod and therth are a lot of threats coming from the slowdowns in asia and in europe that we're trying to krofer c

you just heard from austan goolsbee there.en me, where are you seen any sort of give on brth sides that indicate we'll be able to come to an agreement this year that we cooperate reach last year and one that means we don't have to face this issue again when we hit the debt creel somethicreel something. >> both are stating their initial bargaining positions. democrats are looking for higher tax rates. republicans don't like that. so the public pronouncements, i wouldn't look for much. that's the frustrating part. under there, we do think there's a middle ground. some increase in tax rates, but also limit deductions. which is part of the republican's desire. >> and explain that a little bi . >> any deal would be positive, but the market wants to avoid ale roing fiscal cliff. we don't want a partial agreement. we want something closer to the grand bargain. and that grand bargain is something that says democrats are hope to entitlement reform and tax reform. >> do you really think we'll get there? >> not totally in one fell swoop

that's what we've been talking with austan goolsbee and tony fratto.bout that in a minute. >>> cyber crime is a growing threat to business and government agencies, secretary of defense leon pa net ta made headlines when he called cyber espionage a serious threat to the country. eric rosenbach is the deputy sec. stare assistant to defense. >> good morning, andrew. >> i don't want to overstate or understate it. if you are a business in america today, a ceo of a company, how much of your time should you be spending thinking about the threat to your cyber security? >> this say really important issue for businesses not just for government and the reason ceos and general counsel should spend time think being this, a range of cyber threats could impact a business starting with type of embarrassment, someone steals e-mails and posts them on the internet, theft of personal information or secret type information, the theft of intellectual property is a huge problem for our competitiveness and more damaging attacks like we saw a couple weeks ago. >> eric, who is

joining me now are two former presidential advisers, austan goolsbee, profess of at the booth school of business and former adviser to president obama and ed lazear, former adviser to george w. bush. thank you for joining us. >> nice to be with you. >> great to see you both. let's start with the jobs numbers on friday. the last jobs report before the election. what do they tell us about america's economy today and what impact do you expect it to have on the election. austan? >> i don't think it will have much impact on the election because it's not that much different from the overall trend over the last year to 18 months. i think it was a fairly solid number but certainly better than what was expected and you got revisions on the jobs number itself. but overall, growth has been relatively modest in the u.s. and that's reflected in the jobs number. so this is an encouraging month but you never want to make too much out of any one month. >> i was surprised at the numbers. ed, what do you think? >> i think there are good things that each candidate can take out of it. obviously the fact

appreciate it. >> great to see you. >> austan goolsbee and edward lazear. >>> the final hours before decision day 2012. america is voting. . the man that correctly predicted much of the 2008 outcome and what the numbers say this year. nate silver will join me. and the big buzz during the big storm, how social media came in to play during hurricane sandy. take a look at how the stock market ended the week. back in a moment. [ male announcer ] do you have the legal protection you need? at legalzoom, we've created a better place to turn for your legal matters. maybe you want to incorporate a business you'd like to start. or protect your family with a will or living trust. legalzoom makes it easy with step-by-step help when completing your personalized document -- or you can even access an attorney to guide you along. with an "a" rating from the better business bureau legalzoom helps you get personalized and affordable legal protection. in most states, a legal plan attorney is available with every personalized document to answer any questions. get started at legalzoom.com today. and now

diane swonk and austan goolsbee.eaction from glenn hubbard, economic adviser to the romney campaign and we're going to look at all the market moving things with the employment report trying to figure that out. we're also talking about the northeast and sandy and we have decided why do not gas stations have backup gasoline-powered generators? it's $1,000. why not require a gasoline station, for a gasoline generator. you might ask where can the gas station get the gas to put in the gasoline generator? from the pump! which is operating because they have the generator. >> it's not operating because there's a hole in the bucket there, henry. >> is that where it is? >> i didn't realize, they are gas stations they to get a gas powered generator because they have gas. >> but they can't get the gas out of the pump. they can't get the gas out of the pump because there's no electricit to get it out of the pump. you could get it from the generator if you turn the generator on. >> they could have a gas supply to put in the genera

and the president says, goolsbee, that's not even my worse briefing this week. >> my first job when iame into office was making sure we didn't get into a great depression and the economy could start growing again. >> also high on the president's agenda, his campaign promise to heal the nation's bitter partisan divide. >> we are more than a collection of red states and blue states. we're the united states of america. >> after a month in office, a whopping 76% of americans approved of the new president's job performance. though he was only just beginning. >> you could create whatever you wanted out of him. he was a folklore figure right out of the gate. >> what do you think people expected him to do? >> i think people didn't know. the problem with change is change for what. >> the speaker who electrified crowds on the campaign trail would become a calm, cool leader once in office. a lot of people describe you as cool. that cuts both ways. fair description? >> people who know me well and people on the campaign trail, i don't think they describe me that way. i am in a lot of ways an extro

austan goolsbee joins me now from the school of business at university of chicago, i'm calling him ones. austan, welcome to the program. you wouldn't object to that label, would you? you were an architect of these-- >> i don't know, i appreciate you thinking of me, anyway, good to see you again, stuart. stuart: now you've got to answer for it. let me put it like this, i think those policies have failed to do what they were designed to do. at the end of four years, three and a half years, we've got a rising unemployment rate and an extra 5 1/2 trillion dollars worth of debt. i'm not going to -- i don't believe you can say that the policies you helped write are a success. go. >> well, look, i'm here to talk about the jobs numbers, if you want to talk about the policy we can do that, too. i think the unemployment rate rising by 1/10 this month, but not mentioning that it fell by 3/10 last month is a little selective in the choices. i think it was terrible down turn. all of the job loss was concentrated in that early period of the administration and over the last two, two and a half years

. >> in the months leading up to inauguration, economic adviser austan goolsbee watched in horror as the stock market dropped more than 500 points in a day. >> there was a bottle of bourbon sitting there in the campaign. it had been there for a year and a half and i said, man, if there ever was a day to have a drink of this emergency bourbon, it's today. >> and then it got worse. >> the next day dropped another 500 points. and then late in the campaign, it happens again and somebody says, where's the bourbon? i said, the bottle's empty. >> the emergency bourbon was gone, and the economy was in dire shape. one month before his inauguration barack obama called an urgent meeting during a chicago blizzard. >> the president meets for the first time with all his economic advisers as a group for four hours. everybody in the room is struck with the gravity of the situation. >> i said, mr. president, this is your holy bleep moment. you are facing the worst downturn since the great depression. we're going to have to hit this with everything we have. >> the president is very clear. we need to a

goolsbee, the unemployment rate would be 9.6%. in fact, baby boomer's participation is actually increasing. because in this poor economy, their retirement accounts are worth so little and they're not getting any interest on their cds that they're going back to work. the labor force -- >> hold on a second. but, peter, peter, peter, peter, peter, we're four days from election. just tell me, we -- if you want to relitigate the recession, we can do that. we'll need another hour to do that. let's talk about job creation. both presidential candidates have made a promise they will create 12 million jobs in four years. once was in world war ii, the last two times were under reagan and clinton where economic growth was in excess of 4%. your an economist. are you thinking we're going to get 4% growth in the next couple of years? >> yeah, i do. if mr. romney is elected, we will get 4% to 5% growth. >> why? >> because he will attack the real problem. >> why? >> stimulus spending is like a band-aid. it's a temporary -- we need to solve the pro

that's what's going to be what's facing us. >> austan goolsbee, thank you for joining us.uys. >>> another krcrippling blow to the northeast overnight. nine days after superstorm sandy, powerful nor'easter leaving well over 600,000 customers without power this morning, being forced to endo your danling winds, service on the long island railroad suspended again last night. here is the outrage story of the morning. new york's emergency management chief fired by the governor andrew cuomo by allegedly sending workers to his own home on long island for clearing a fa fallen tree. >> good. they should fire him. that's ridiculous. >>> jesse jackson jr. is holding plea deal talks with the feds over his alleged misuse of campaign funds. 's easily won row election even though he reportedly is undergoing treatment still at the mayo clinic for bipolar disorder and depression. spokesman for the congressman is refusing to comment. >>> pharmacy board has been fired and the board's attorney is now on administrative leave. massachusetts health officials say they ignored a complaint that was

. >> in the months leading up to inauguration, economic adviser austan goolsbee watched in horror asket dropped more than 500 points in a day. >> there was a bottle of bourbon sitting there in the campaign. it had been there for a year and a half and i said, man, if there ever was a day to have a drink of this emergency bourbon, it's today. >> and then it got worse. >> the next day dropped another 500 points. and then late in the campaign, it happens again and somebody says, where's the bourbon? i said, the bottle's empty. >> the emergency bourbon was gone, and the economy was in dire shape. one month before his inauguration barack obama called an urgent meeting during a chicago blizzard. >> the president meets for the first time with all his economic advisers as a group for four hours. everybody in the room is struck with the gravity of the situation. >> i said, mr. president, this is your holy bleep moment. you are facing the worst downturn since the great depression. we're going to have to hit this with everything we have. >> the president is very clear. we need to act. we need to

>>f my friend austan goolsbee who worked for president obama would say here, wait a minute the market was up over 50% during president obama's first term. i want to get that out there to be fair. melissa: no, absolutely. the difference is everybody went to the polls and vote the for their folks. thought it would be all their folks. when you dust settled you looked at the cast of jokers we elected and the same crew that got us into this mess and brought us this close to the fiscal cliff in the first place. everybody looked around and said, uh-oh. >> that's right. you know what, melissa? you mentioned it is not just the numbers. it is democrats that were elected. they're pretty radically liberal. elizabeth warren gave that speech at the democratic convention and malefactors of wealth and founded her fist against wall street and tammy baldwin in wisconsin, who is from madison. what else do iave to say? melissa: elizabeth warren in the picture, she looked so happy. she is so excited. there she is. oh, she is coming right after wall street. i mean, buckle up, hide under your desk. here she

austin goolsbee and michael boskin. this is about 45 minutes. >> good morning, everybody. i have three distinguished economists and economic policy- makers talk about. we have a wide touring to spend -- terrain to span. immediately to my left, robert zelig. austin goolsbee, former chairman of the council of economic investors under president obama, and michael boskin, who spoke last night as chief economic advisor for george h. w. bush. we have a whole world to spend. i want to start out with the united states. very few people in this room understand the president as well as us. many are asking -- what is going to come? i would like to look through the fiscal cliff and ask you to describe for us how you see the budget negotiations playing out over the next six months. >> it feels to me like they always had a deal last year. the principal bottleneck was not that the president was on willing to offer cuts. it was that there was a group of republicans in the house who would not go for the revenue. i think that is still the bottle neck now. you probably saw the article this mo

. >> bob zellick and austen goolsbee bought up the notion that this feels like groundhog's day. what is different post-election than pre-election? same players, slightly different complexion of players come inauguration day but not really. what has changed that gives the optimism that some deal will be struck now i could not have been struck before the election? >> first of all, the president was reelected. whether you agreed with his reelection and not -- had he not been reelected, at the other side had taken power, he would have to wait for the new president. because you have the sitting president reelected, he did not have to wait. number two, we are days closer to all these things actually happening. the end of the tax cuts, the alternative minimum tax, the sequester, the automatic spending cuts. all those things are very close to being upon us. that does not deal with unemployment insurance and the payroll tax holiday. because those things are also set to end. so there is a growing momentum that i think will compel colleagues to act. could i be wrong? absolutely, i could. b

joining us right now is austan goolsbee. he is at obama headquarters in chicago.joining us, founder of comeback america initiative. good to see you. thanks for joining us. david, give us your sense of business getting to the work of the fiscal cliff once we know who takes this election. >> it has to be priority one for whoever wins tonight. we'll need extraordinary presidential leadership. we haven't had it in a number of years. we need to avoid the fiscal cliff between now and the end of the year and address the much bigger challenge which is avoiding the fiscal abyss. next year through a grand bargain. >> barring a surprise or a few surprises in the near future, we may have a house still run by the republicans, a senate still run by the dems. does that make negotiations over the next 55 days easier or harder? >> obviously harder. it makes it -- it will be tough. first of all, i saw you got rick over there. i had a special pass i was going to have rick santelli as my guest here at the obama after party. you flew him out to new jersey. >> that would bring the room

you and austin had a great conversation, austin goolsbee about infrastructure. it's a no-brainer. bipartisan, public sector, government sectors, unions, it's the greatest multiplier of gdp debt. of course, this week showed very clearly this country needs infrastructure to be graded by "a" by engineers not "d" where it is. >> will we use this crisis we're coming off of, hurricane sandy, to step up the money moving into infrastructure, do you think? >> i haven't heard governor romney talk about infrastructure but being an adviser to the president, it's been at the forefront from the stimulus to the america's job act. he's always been a proponent. put the idea of a national infrastructure bank in his plan. i think it's clear governor romney or the president knows infrastructure needs to be fixed in this country. >> we talked about the tax side of the equation and, of course, the building, the infrastructure and construction side. what about spending cuts, where is the president in terms of actually reigning in spending so that that part of the equation also gets help in terms of defi

. >> goolsbee wouldn't wear one because he was sure there was right wing conspiracy. are you ready to wear one. >> >> rise before has all sorts of con know takingnotations. >> but they're all good. >> yes. but i don't have a viagra pen. >> i asked goolsbee, what about be kind to animals. >> people see whatever they want. >> i will wear an i love hot dogs pin. >> it's a hint at compromise and that's what people don't like. >> in my mind, it doesn't hit a compromise. the president needs to compromise. that's how i see it. >> the republicans don't have to rise above? >> no, they've already put revenue on on the table. now let's compromise on on entitlements. you can lower marginal rights and raise effective rates, right? >> if the president didn't stand in the way, could you have a 1986 tax deal, take off preferences. you could lower tax rates which help the economy. everyone can declare victory. but he doesn't want to do it. >> we'll get to this stuff as soon as we get the situation in myanmar settled a little bit. >> no twinkies. >> still call it burma. >> maybe that's

. >> it's interesting because talking to austan goolsbee the other day and asking him about the prospectsfor some major agreement, he said it still feels like there's one last celebrity death match to be fought. what's your sense around the belt way, is it that lawmakers are sort of tired after last year's negotiations and trying to avoid a similar outcome or do you get the sense that there may yet be another sprawl? >> i think this is more of a zombie death match. i think there will be always of it, there will somebody show of a big fight. and today when they meet with -- the president meets with the congressional leadership, they won't come out and say happy days are here again, we made a deal. this is the opening sal vow, this is going to be feeling the other side out. but there's a big dichotomy in power levels right now on the tax issue. the public is more with the democrats on this. so i don't think there will be that death match in december. i think you'll see a little bit more of the rhetorical back and forth and then they'll find a way to get new revenue. it will be through combi

. >> suarez: judy and gwen, i'm with austin goolsbee, the former chairman of the president's council of economic advisers and a professor once again at the university of chicago. if i could ask you to take off your presidential adviser hat and put back on your economics professors cap, who are the trend for whoever takes the oath of office in january? how is the economy loing? > that's auper iportant question. i think the past-- next 12 months, the trends look pretty good. there is a lot of pent-up demand. housing is starting to come back, and you have seen a lot of growth in different sect oshz but over want next six to 12 months, i think the trends are pretty bumpy looking. we have the fiscal cliff coming. you have seen the congressional budget office saying if they cannot address the fiscal cliff it would mean a recession at the beginning of 2013. i think whoever comes in that will land right in their lap as soon as they get there. >> suarez: let's talk a little bit about the fiscal cliff. it lands on the doorstep, america's doorstep, as soon as the election is out of the way, you

we talked to austin goolsbee, used to advise the president, democratic side here, and this is what hefiscal cliff. >> the biggest year of the stimulus was about a plus $275 billion. if we go off the fiscal cliff it's about a minus $650 billion in the year 2013. so it's a pretty serious issue, but it can't just be looked at on its own. as speaker boehr said, it's got to be part of a grand bargain, and hopefully there will be some room for compromise. i fear there's one more celebrity death match left in that old kind of tea party viewpoint. >> yeah, and how strong will that tea party viewpoint be and how will john boehner be able to wrangle that. this is what it means for a middle income family if we were to go off the fiscal cliff, $2,000 in tax increases next year. i moon that would start right away. that means most people would feel it immediately. it would mean the bush tax cuts would go away. so everyone's tax rates would go up. the alternative minimum tax patch would be gone. payroll tax holiday would go away. another $1,000 a year in tax increases. that's a lot of money people w

austan goolsbee, former chair of the president's council economic advisors.e is now a professor at booth school of business at the university of chicago. doug holtz-eakin served as congressional budget office director under president george w. bush. i'm going to put you guys on ice for a second. i apologize but governor romney is stepping to the microphone. we were trying to get them in before we heard from governor romney to get a little perspective on the job market. we'll see some headlines. the 7.9% unemployment. we'll see no the job growth in the private sector. things takes you 40 plus months on average to find a job. if you laid off could be on average until next august to get hired. it is an average. it could be longer, could be shorter. what speeds up job growth? we in new normal what we can expect under any economy under any president? this is questions we hope to get to austan and doug, both of them as we watch mitt romney take to the stage in wisconsin. should mention a busy day for mitt romney. a little later on today he has another rally. he wil

san antonio mayor, hjulian casto will join us, steven latourette, and austan goolsbee will be sittingwhat exactly is this fiscal cliff that everybody's up in arms about. >>> and with so much at stake, is it even possible to find something to laugh at? well, comedian david allen grier would say, absolutely. we'll chat with him this morning as well. >> i'm so happy that kay bailey hutchison will be here. it's so interesting to talk to members of congress when they have one foot out the door. you tend to get a much more different perspective -- >> honesty. that people to feel they're going to come back to work next year don't have. that's 20 minutes from now. >> thank you very much. >>> mother nature delivering a jarring hook on top of last week's epic body blow to the northeast. a powerful winter-like storm knocking out power to another 100,000 customers in new jersey or new york and the new jersey area. damaging winds, really bitter cold temperatures, and driving snow, forcing hundreds of thousands of people to hunker down in the dark overnight. >> former arizona representative, gabby

austan goolsbee was against it. >> no, there was not. >> there was no sdissent?s there. there was dissent about the chrysler piece. which was about a third the size of the general motors piece. it was only about the chrysler piece. the president made a judgment -- >> that was a significant part of it. >> -- that those who wanted to let chrysler go were wrong. he made that judgment because he -- against the advice of many of his political advisers because he believed that the risks to the economy of adding another blow at that moment were just too great. that was the right decision as we've seen. with a different president, it could easily have gone a different way. and we could be looking at a very different economy in ohio and a very different economy in michigan. in fact, that's what governor romney famously recommended. just let them go. yes, there were -- there were those among the presidents advisers who shared that judgment. fortunately, the president came to a very different conclusion. >> larry summers joining us this morning. nice to see you, sir. thank

world bank president robert zoellick and former chairman of the council of economic advisers, austan goolsbee and michael boskin. they discuss the global economy and the so-called fiscal cliff in which automatic tax hikes would take place unless congress acts. this is 45 minutes. >> the former chairman of the council of economic advisers under president obama, and michael boskin, who spoke last night briefly and is the chief economic adviser for george h.w. bush and is now a stanford economic professor. so we have a whole world to span. i want to start out with the united states. very few people in this room understand the president as well as us and, goolsby, a lot of legal are asking what is -- a lot of people are asking what is going to come of the fiscal cliff. i'd like to ask you to describe for us how do you see the budget negotiations playing out over the next six months? >> well, it feels to me like they almost had a deal last year. the principal bottle neck last year was not that the president was unwilling to offer cuts, it was that there was a group of republicans in the house who

>> austan goolsbee is quoted in the "wall street journal" yesterday saying if the president does notchallenge attached to it or addressed in it, that it's his belief that the president's not going to sign it. he didn't say he'd go off the cliff but you don't have to be that bright to know what that means which is the only reason i asked gary as we look at big, medium and small business leaders, how willing are they over the next several days, next few weeks to say mr. president we're willing to go with you and willing to ask republicans what is it you have to have as a part of this deal. otherwise we find ourselves in a big, big mess here. debris it would be unpleasant and painful for companies like yours and many others. >> will the house go for just extending 250? >> nope. >> they will not do it. >> nope. >> it's been two years the president has been saying it. >> nope. >> first i thought it was about re-election, i thought he was backing the republicans into the obstruction corner making them look bad and driving their approval rate down. now the election is over -- i want to broa

kelly, good interview with austan goolsbee this morning. >> hi, steve, thanks very much. he did say he expects a last celebrity death match before there's any major fiscal agreement to be reached. so maybe suggests some cautious in the markets. we're seeing more of it today. i wanted to start off by showing a look here at italy and spain. this comes after we got the gdp figures for the third quarter, which were very slowly watched. and the problem is they showed a decline of 0.1%. so europe is officially in recession. the trouble is the decline was roughly in line with expectations. so dead in italy tick up a bit. off sit picture in spain. so not strong but still expects caution. on the equity side, we're seeing red arrows for the most part. the xetra dax down better than half a percent as the german economy raising some eyebrows. the cac 40 down 0.2%. the ibex trying to buck the trend and aed 0.4% this morning. but keeping with the sort of grim theme that's playing out, h and m reported numbers. they came out sharply negative rely it difference to what was expected. indi