mumbles, linking swansea to the gower peninsula.syness, but this is the uk's most marginal seat. the conservatives' election taxi is back on the road, only two years after former policeman and assembly member byron davies took the seat the biggest shock of the welsh results last time. in this election he says he's not taking any notice of the opinion polls. i get my vibes off the street. and i have to say, my vibes are good. unsurprisingly brexit is high on the agenda. in the last 2015 election we had something in the region ofjust under 5000 people who voted for ukip, many, many of those that i have spoken to have said that they can only see theresa may as the person who will now take it forward. tara, thank you. ta—ta. out and about in gorseinon it's another day of doorknocking for labour's tonia antoniaz. she's a former welsh rugby international battling to take gower back for the party which held it for decades. any lessons you can take from the rugby pitch to politics do you think? well i think stamina is one of them. she says

gower, derby north, croydon central. these are all ones that they will struggle to hang onto if they're on the back foot. if they lose just this first column here, the conservatives will be plunged into a minority where they can't outnumber all the other mps in the house of commons. but look at it from the other angle. when this election campaign started people were talking about a conservative landslide. well, these are their targets, the ones that they were closest to winning last time. chester, ealing, berwickshire, brentford, halifax, and so on. if they won the whole of this board, that is 32 extra seats. if they took the whole of the next board as well, right down to oldham and luton, that is another 64 seats, you're talking there about a majority in the house of commons of about 130. you would call that a landslide for the conservatives. if it happened. now, for labour the story is different. it is about trying to improve on ed miliband's performance, bad performance, two years ago. so here are their targets. these

gower, derby north, croydon central.ose just this first column here, the conservatives will be plunged into a minority where they can‘t outnumber all the other mps in the house of commons. but look at it from the other angle. when this election campaign started people were talking about a conservative landslide. well, these are their targets, the ones that they were closest to winning last time. chester, ealing, berwickshire, brentford, halifax, and so on. if they won the whole of this board, that is 32 extra seats. if they took the whole of the next board as well, right down to 0ldham and luton, that is another 64 seats, you‘re talking there about a majority in the house of commons of about 130. you would call that a landslide for the conservatives. if it happened. now, for labour the story is different. it is about trying to improve on ed miliband‘s performance, bad performance, two years ago. so here are their targets. these are the ones they came closest to in 2015. gower, derby north, croydon central, vale of clewyd

gower, derby north, croydon central. on the back foot. if they lose just this first column here, the conservatives will be plunged into a minority where they can't outnumber all the other mps in the house of commons. but look at it from the other angle. when this election campaign started people were talking about a conservative landslide. well, these are their targets, the ones that they were closest to winning last time. chester, ealing, berwickshire, brentford, halifax, and so on. if they won the whole of this board, that is 32 extra seats. if they took the whole of the next board as well, right down to 0ldham and luton, that is another 64 seats, you're talking there about a majority in the house of commons of about 130. you would call that a landslide for the conservatives. if it happened. now, for labour the story is different. it is about trying to improve on ed miliband's performance, bad performance, two years ago. so here are their targets. these are the ones they came closest to in 2015. gower, derby north, cro

sian lloyd, bbc news, gower.der of ukip paul nuttall, has resigned , after his party failed to sin a single seat in parliament. the party's popularity plummeted after securing just over 500 and 90 thousand votes across the entire country , down from nearly four million in 2015. our political correspondent alex forsyth reports now on pa rty‘s collapse a brave face but a bruising result. ukip‘s leader came third here in boston and skegness, losing thousands of votes, a picture replicated across the country, prompting this. i am standing down today as the leader of ukip with immediate effect. the party has struggled to find its way since the eu referendum, losing support in droves. but even after quitting, he insists ukip‘s not finished. i believe the worst is over. the party is still on the pitch of british politics. in clacton, voters aren't sure. this was the seat of ukip‘s only mp. last night, their vote plummeted, some supporters switching to the tories because of brexit. ukip done theirjob, if we do get the br

let's look at where they came closest, gower the conservatives won by only 32, derby north, croydon central cetera. labour need to win all of these, plus half the next board, just to become the biggest single party in a house of commons. they need to win all the seats here and the whole of the third board, another 32 seats, to have an overall majority, so huge mountain to climb from such a long way back. so too the lib dems — they we re way back. so too the lib dems — they were reduced to only eight seats and outs commons, let's see them, this is what they won in 2015. they surely have to defend them. they could win the whole of this board, and other 32, and still not be where they were after 2010 with 57 seats. so they really need to make some advanceis so they really need to make some advance is here. different story for the snp, who, as we heard earlier from sarah smith, took nearly everything in scotland. these are the 32 most marginal snp seats, darting where it was closest, berwickshire, then dunbartonshire, edinburgh west and so on. even though those may be tied to hold onto, they co

wyre davies, bbc news, gower.ell overnight against the dollar by two per cent and by the euro by 1.5 per cent. it's the biggest fall this year but far less than the aftermath of the brexit vote lastjune, when it plunged more than io%. our business editor simon jack is in the city of london for us. the markets are not getting any better at this politics stuff. i could many other pundits, they had factored in a solid majority for a theresa may and when i did not happen, you can see what happened there to the value of the pound. a very sharp fall. a hung parliament is precisely the kind of uncertainty that markets aimlessly hate. from then, the discussion goes on to what kind of brexit are we going to get? perhaps a softer form of brexit than what was advertised by theresa may draws this lack of political consensus mean we could get a disorganised and chaotic exit? one thing ‘s for sure, the business leaders i have spoken to are decided around one conclusion, this is the worst possible outcome. they have seen it as a

gower, derby north, croydon central, vale of clewyd, and so on.biggest party in the house of commons. but they'd have to go all the way to the end of board three here and take all of these seats to actually have an overall majority. so a huge mountain to climb. they'd have to take cleethorpes, which currently has a conservative majority of 8000. as for the liberal democrats, the first aim for them is to defend what they've got. these eight seats. after that, it is a matter of targets, but even taking the whole of that board back there wouldn't get them back to where they were in 2010. the scottish national party, different story. last time they painted scotland yellow. look at the map, look at the board here. they need to defend seats starting with berwickshire, their most marginal. if they hang onto anything in the first column, they will have had a very good night. they have got seats to spare in scotland. of course there are the nationalists in wales as well, there are the greens, there's ukip, there's the northern ireland parties. but they key

gower, derby north, croydon central. they're on the back foot. if they lose just this first column here, the conservatives will be plunged into a minority where they can't outnumber all the other mps in the house of commons. but look at it from the other angle. when this election campaign started people were talking about a conservative landslide. well, these are their targets, the ones that they were closest to winning last time. chester, ealing, berwickshire, brentford, halifax, and so on. if they won the whole of this board, that is 32 extra seats. if they took the whole of the next board as well, right down to oldham and luton, that is another 64 seats, you're talking there about a majority in the house of commons of about 130. you would call that a landslide for the conservatives. if it happened. now, for labour the story is different. it is about trying to improve on ed miliband's performance, bad performance, two years ago. so here are their targets. these are the ones they came closest to in 2015. gower, derby no

gower, derby north, croydon central.s that they will struggle to hang onto if they're on the back foot. if they lose just this first column here, the conservatives will be plunged into a minority where they can't outnumber all the other mps in the house of commons. but look at it from the other angle. when this election campaign started people were talking about a conservative landslide. well, these are their targets, the ones that they were closest to winning last time. chester, ealing, berwickshire, brentford, halifax, and so on. if they won the whole of this board, that is 32 extra seats. if they took the whole of the next board as well, right down to oldham and luton, that is another 64 seats, you're talking there about a majority in the house of commons of about 130. you would call that a landslide for the conservatives if it happened. now, for labour the story is different. it's about trying to improve on ed miliband's performance, bad performance, two years ago. so here are their targets. these are the ones they c

sian lloyd, bbc news, gower.eat at westminster. the party's share of the popular vote fell by more than 10%, in sharp contrast to the 4 million votes it won in 2015. 0ur political correspondent alex forsyth reports now on ukip‘s collapse. a brave face but a bruising result. ukip‘s leader came third here in boston and skegness, losing thousands of votes, a picture replicated across the country, prompting this. i am standing down today as the leader of ukip with immediate effect. the party has struggled to find its way since the eu referendum, losing support in droves. but even after quitting, he insists ukip‘s not finished. i believe the worst is over. the party is still on the pitch of british politics. in clacton, voters aren't sure. this was the seat of ukip‘s only mp. last night, their vote plummeted, some supporters switching to the tories because of brexit. ukip done theirjob, if we do get the brexit up and running, which they achieved. more surprising to some, labour gained from the party's collapse too, wi

first off the mark was the new labour mp whose constituency of gower was previously held by the conservativeshe speaker. it is indeed outstanding to take this seat back for labour after being the most marginal seat in the last election, and to be the first woman to do so. it is a constituency wrought by the devastating impact of post—industrialisation, and remains with stubbornly high unemployment. it is a constituency that has borne the brunt of the policies put forward by the party opposite, and it is a constituency that on the 8th ofjune, said, "enough is enough". i grew up in huyton in knowsley, and went to the local comprehensive school. i left school at 16, and started work as an apprentice in a carfactory in kirby. general motors invested in me, sponsored my degree, and gave me the life chance that enabled me to have a successful, international business career in the tech sector for the next 27 years. there is today a false narrative about multinational companies and the contribution they make to our society. ‘it turned out that she has connections to the speaker.‘ in the name of trans

we'll be visiting the most marginal constituency in the country, gower in south wales to see if labourkegness for a lovely day by the sea to check if the folks there have already made up their minds to vote for.

it is at the moment wondering from that, so roger gower will be on procedures to be had about whetherrace. 1000 armed forces and personnel were placed on the streets of london to bolster what the police were doing. no doubt conversations to be had on that as well. what we understand this morning is that campaigning in the general election had been postponed by the conservatives. you said a few moments ago, about half an hourago, said a few moments ago, about half an hour ago, that the tories will not campaign nationally today, and that they will refuse a day goes on. we would expect some of the other political parties to follow suit, although they haven't confirmed that will be the case. but we are just four days away from a general election, so the timing of all of this couldn't be worse. there is no suggestion that the general election itself will be postponed, but if the general election campaign does get back under way, it will certainly be rather muted. so far, we haven't cared if the other political parties have said it they will postpone the campaign. with four days to go until

gower. we will highlight the seats that would agree main and this is the clue to it. look here.ats get harder and harderfor labour to board, the seats get harder and harder for labour to win, usually the tory majority increases but what we find is that labour only gain or the constituencies voted for remain. remain constituencies somehow turbo—charged the labour vote, isn't that interesting? and look at the seats labour lost, even starker, these ones they lost, derbyshire north, hillsborough south, copeland, stoke—on—trent... those were seats up stoke—on—trent... those were seats upfor stoke—on—trent... those were seats up for brexit seats. they were not comparable to treat for labour, it's a bit of analysis they are on the labour vote but let's sum it all. we can go to the big pie chart that brea ks can go to the big pie chart that breaks down the seats in the house of commons. you see the dotted line at 12 o'clock which the conservatives have fallen just short of. jeremy, thank you. plenty to talk about and believe me as we go on in the next couple of hours, more than enough f

in the gower the tories only held eight majority of 27, but the biggest swing was in cardiff north, inwas the area theresa may chose to visit when she launched her campaign in wales. it's also the seat of first minister carwynjones in the assembly here, and they did not make any games. you mentioned the lib dems, who lost their only seatin the lib dems, who lost their only seat in wales, the first time since 1859 that there isn't an np sitting in wales. plaid cymru gained one, their joint in wales. plaid cymru gained one, theirjoint highest in wales. plaid cymru gained one, their joint highest they in wales. plaid cymru gained one, theirjoint highest they have had in a general election. and ukip, their share of the vote was wiped out com pletely share of the vote was wiped out completely here, losing 12% of their share. the total seats, 28 for labour, eight for the conservatives and fourfor labour, eight for the conservatives and four for plaid labour, eight for the conservatives and fourfor plaid cymru. labour, eight for the conservatives and four for plaid cymru. that was from cardif

and they have taken seats from the conservatives, they have taken the vale of clwyd, they have taken gowern that in the exit poll this evening, they have borne out. labour have defended very well but they haven't just labour have defended very well but they haven'tjust defended, they have made gains and we have been hearing from people, senior people in labour here, who have been saying it has been down to two things, the welsh labour brand they have campaigned so strongly on, but also, jeremy corbyn as well, so they seem to be coming together with what they are saying in that and the conservatives in wales already saying that they perhaps should have been fighting more on a welsh conservative brand, so those are the things that we are hearing at the moment. now plaid cymru, we are not sure what sort of night it is going to be for them. they have been relegated into third place on one constituency. labour increased their majority from 229 on ynys mon, to almost 5,000, so a whopping lead for them there, so there is a recount in ceredigion and we are hearing it is very close between the libe

amazingly, gower stay in conservative. derby north, labour. quite a lot of damage.as the board goes on, the conservatives defending better. it looks as though that is the extent of the labour advance. it is a patchy prediction. 32 more. torbay, 3000 majority. what do we think has happened? we can take a look. you can see that some of these labourgains, look. you can see that some of these labour gains, not look. you can see that some of these labourgains, not in look. you can see that some of these labour gains, not in places that you may have expected. exit poll i have got to stress. and you remember that michael portillo moment. on that, labour have done some more damage. and it does not stop. we can go to even better defended seats. you would not have thought these could go to any other party when theresa may started the election campaign. and we have got labour reaching into these seats, with majority. milton keynes dons south, and under the exit poll we will have to see what happens when we actually come to the actual results, and that is surely not going to be