and has evolved in helping thousands and thousands of kids in the foster care system. >> rose: graham allison and graham windham next. >> rose: funding for "charlie rose" has been provided by the following: >> and by bloomberg, a provider of multimedia news and information services worldwide. captioning sponsored by rose communications from our studios in new york city, this is charlie rose. >> rose: graham allison is here. his latest book is called "destined for war: can america and china escape thucydide's trap?." what it examines is the potential for conflict as china threatens to displace america on the world stage. i'm pleased to have graham allison back at this table. welcome. >> thank you for having me. >> rose: when did you first decide that this was a subject that needed attention? >> well, it's probably a decade ago, henry kissinger, my old professor at harvard, and lee kwan yu, about which i was writing a book which i published -- >> both have done interviews with you. >> and wonderful interviews. these i think are two the strategic leading lights of our lifetime. and each of them

book, join me in welcoming graham allison and niall ferguson. [applause] >> you seek the introductions are better here than they are at harvard, too. thank you, amy. so, one thing amy didn't mention is that graham and i have also been co-authors. we published an article on applied history last year, arguing that the president of the united states needed historical advisers, this one especially, and so we are not in an adversarial relationship, it's fair to say. indeed the book that we're going to talk about is the book i watched evolve while i was at hard regard, and i have to congratulate you, you got the timing just right. if you aren't worried now about the possibility of conflict between china and the united states, when you leave this room, i guarantee you that you will be. let me begin our conversation with a quotation from the book. when a rising power felonies to displace a ruling power, alarm bills should sound, danger ahead. china and the united states are currently on a collision course for war unless both parties take difficult and pa

i'm pleased to have graham allison. welcome. graham: thank you for having me.irst decide this was a subject that needed attention? graham:

i'm pleased to have graham allison. welcome. graham: thank you for having me.harlie: when did you first decide this was a subject that needed attention? ago,m: probably a decade henry kissinger, my old professor at harvard, and i was writing a book which i published three, four years ago. these are i think two strategic lights of our lifetime. about thereminding me soviet union and nuclear weapons, think about china. i started studying china about 10 years ago and five years i -- five years ago i stumbled on this idea. when a rising power threatens to displace a ruling power, bad things happen. and that as a lens helps you look through the daily noise and news to see a primary dynamic here and helps us recognize the dangers that are inherent in such a situation. charlie: it is as timely as today. this is "the financial times" from today. there is a picture of xi jinping. it says china's president makes his way to the podium in the great hall of the people in beijing to deliver an hour-long speech that warned that china's neighbors that the country would not tol

in this latest addition to the "newshour bookshelf," margaret warner talks to professor graham allison of harvard university about his new work, "destined for war: can america and china escape thucydides' trap?" >> warner: to what degree do you think the united states and china fall into this trap that this historian thucydides set up 25 centuries ago? >> i would say almost precisely. he observed a competition between athens and sparta, and wrote famously about the rise of athens and the fear that this instilled in sparta. so when a rising power threatens to displace a ruling power, in general, bad things happen. in this case, we see almost a prototypical rising power in china, which is restoring-- being restored, as some think of it, to its natural place at the center of the universe, and is the dominant power. and no ruling power has ever been sure that it belongs as number one than the u.s.a. so i would say, this is an almost perfect lucidity dynamic, and i think we're seeing the syndrome in both cases, and the behavior of both parties. >> warner: you call it the ruling power syndro

we begin tonight with graham allison from the kennedy school at harvard.en a fascinating new book called "destined for war," in which he looks at the possibility for wars between a rising power-- that would be china-- and an established china, which would be the united states. so we talk to graham allison about that possibility. >> long before donald trump found his banner, xi jinping had announced, when he became president, in 2012, his objective was to make china great again. he calls it in his language the great rejuvenation of the great chinese people. in his story, and in the story for most chinese, china was the great country for 5,000 years. there was this to00-year intermission when the west came

my friend graham allison professor at harvard has done extensive historical analysis over the 16 times in the last several thousand years that that situation has entailed in 12 of those situations the two nations go to war. in four of them, they do not. what we need to do is understand china. listen to them. exceed where we can, cooperate where we can, but confront where they really push beyond borders of what makes sense if we do that job your point i think we can avoid this trap and avoid open confrontation. others -- yeah how about this young man way over here. j hello. okay as an admirable what's primary difference you have between sea attack versus a land battle. >> okay great question. so the ocean, the biggest thing, of course, is terrain. the ocean here's the news flash the oceans are flat. there's no terrain borders between them you know how fast you can cross them, you have many more known elements in a sea battle on the surface. on land you have enormous obstacles you have to get over. the challenge is below the sea in today's world. i sometimes envy have admirals like lord

my friend graham allison professor at harvard has done analysis over the 16 times in the last severalousand years that that situation has entailed, in 12 of those situations the two nations go to war. in four of them, they do not. what we need to do is understand china, listen to them, exceed where we can, cooperate where we can, but confront where they really push beyond the borders of what makes sense. if we do that, your point, i think, we can avoid open confrontation. others, how about the young man over here? >> hello. okay. as an admiral, what's the primary differences land attack versus a land battle? >> great question. so the ocean, the biggest thing, of course, is terrain, the oceans here is a news flash, the oceans are flat, there are no terrain borders between them, you know how fast you can cross them, you have many more known elements in a sea battle on the surface. on the land, you have enormous obstacles, you have to get over. the challenge back over here for the admiral is what's happening below the sea in today's world. i sometimes envy admirals like lord nelson who c

my friend graham allison professor at harvard has done extensive analysis on the 16 times in the last several thousand years that that situation has been scaled. in 12 of those situations, the two nations go to war. in four of them they do not. what we need to do is understand china, listen to them, exceed where we can, cooperate where we can but in front where they push beyond the borders of what the expenses. if we do that, your point i think we can avoid this trap and avoid an open confrontation. >> how about this young man over here? >> as an admiral, what are the primary services you had between the sea, >> as opposed to a land on. >> great question. >> the ocean, the biggest thing of course is terrain. the oceans, here's a newsflash. the oceans are flat. there are no terrain borders between them. you know how fast you can cross them. you have many more known elements in a sea battle on the service. on the land, you have enormous obstacles you have to get over. the challenge back over here for the admiral is what's happening below to see. >> in today's world, i sometimes envy adm

. >> heather: a gram graham allison joining us now, the secretary of defense and the author of "destinedor war." thank you for joining us. >> think they're having me. >> heather: you heard us say that north korea could launch another missile tomorrow. let's begin there. if they do, what do you think will happen? what will the response he, what should it be? >> two dates coming up tomorrow, a special day is, and then the 21st of august when the joint u.s. south korea exercise begin begins. kim jong-un has threatened that he is going to do this launching four media ranged missiles that could attack could go on. i would say that the odds are pretty good that we will see a test of that sort. president trump has repeating the proposition that he is not going to let north korea continue advancing its nuclear capabilities which it does every time it's conducts a test. so over the next days and weeks we will see whether we simply say, well, you cannot do the next two test coming you can't in the next test, you can't do the next test, or if at some point he draws a brighter line, and conducts a l

joe and graham allison and i had a colleague at harvard, the late ambassador steve bosworth. this is how he framed our relationship with china two years ago. he said, china is not our enemy. china will likely end up being our most if not are most important global partner on climate change, stabilizing the global economy, the role of women, cyber in the future. here is the problem, china is also a competitor with us for strategic power in east asia. i think the south and east china sea military superiority. steve asked the question of my students i want to ask of you. he said this will be the toughest american challenge on foreign policy in the 21st century to balance these two and not to end up in a conflict with china and be dominated by china. in my view if i can say this in , a nonpartisan way, president obama achieved the climate change agreement with president xi jinping. good example of the engagement. now president trump faces a difficult issue in the east asian sea. we will star with the woodwork backed down. what is your advice for president trump to deal with the ch