alan greenspan joins us. also, bob schiller of case-shiller index joins us. ♪ >> indonesian search crews are finally finding debris and bodies from the air asia flight that went missing three days ago. that makes this search different from that of the still disappeared malaysian air flight so why do air disasters keep happening in southeast asia? one potential answer -- a boom in regional air travel. based in and serving indonesia and malaysia including a good number with safety regulations that do not meet western standards. with us is john rose, chief operating officer at ijet. john, good morning to you. there is lots we still do not know, but at this point, when we look at what happened to the malaysian airlines jet, when we look at what happened to this airasia jet, can we draw conclusions about the safety standards, the speed at which these airlines have grown and expanded their service, and the increasingly bad safety record that we are beginning to see? >> i think you can draw a little bit of conclusio

here is greenspan on the u.s. economy. >> despite the recent indications of middle of the , despite those indications, we still have a very sluggish economy. effective demand in the u.s. has weakened -- is weak. effective demand in europe is worse. the top of the hour. they with bloomberg for a special three-hour edition of street smart with cory johnson, scarlet fu, and me, pimm fox. our guest will talk about companies that need to makes the serious resolutions for 2015. ♪ >> tonight on "titans at the table," we talk football and the big apple. >> there will be a coin toss right here. >> with the man who is bringing it all together. jonathan tisch, co-chairman of the loews corporation and co-owner of the new york giants. he was born and raised in a new york family. in 1959, his family branched out and bought loews theaters. today the loews corporation has $80 billion in assets that generate $15 billion in annual revenue with interest from everything in hotels, insurance, oil and gas. jonathan tisch runs the compa

ezra greenspan calls the life of williams wells brown. he penned some of the earliest works of fiction and travel. he also reports of the contemporary offender douglas was a popular anti-slavery speaker who ran for office and practice medicine. this is about 50 minutes. >> evening, ladies and gentlemen. my name is david murray and on the half of the staff it's my pleasure to welcome you to politics and prose. before we begin, let me remind you to take a moment to silence your devices and when we are done please ask questions. please use the microphone. thank you. and we always do 500 event such as every year as well as classes and trips and others and so if you would like to support that if you would like to know what is happening here, sign up for our weekly e-mail or follow us through social media. the book is by ezra greenspan and we have copies of william brown's book. and there is another one as well. one thing i would like to mention in my capacity of the bookseller, anyone who's mentioning becoming an expert, it is confusing to hav

greenspan is right. we are better than the rest with what is going on in japan and greece. may be a little more optimistic granted we should be higher than we were. we had seen some wage numbers. look, i agree with our overall. at least we are not japan. i feel like mr. doom and gloom are. art laffer, thanks again. happy new year. quite possibly the biggest economic story of the year. cheap oil. we are producing more. the price keeps dropping. more on that right after this break. ♪ >> let's check the bank board. the dow above 44. meantime, the price of oil. look at that. down another dollar. where is the bottom on this thing? we have not found it yet. down more than $1 a gallon. we thought that was pretty good. the big focus on our varney good year. here is the preview. >> 2015 will feature a yearly average that is going to be not $3, but under. likely, it will start with a two. some great news for 2015. unlikely to be over $3 a gallon. stuart: that is not much of a forecast and you know it. >> will stuart get the answer that he is looking for? different time. noon eastern.

. >> i will go back to what alan greenspan said, i would rather watch what do you than what you say, back to my early television days, i would go on street with a photographer, stick a microphone and camera in someone's face, you could see a deer in headlights look, they would say, i have to say something profound, they would say something, but it is not really how they felt, this is why optimism is something you default to but people are not opening their wallets. charles: i am feeling opposite, if we drove to a parking lot right now, and someone came in, and you asked how do you feel about your car, they would say it okay, but left, right tire or whatever, you know. so, i am different there. at least all of this surveys are moving in the right direction, blowing the whistle. talk about a person gauge out in national federation of independent businesses their optimism index on surface, a seminole moment for them, a return to normalcy for years. here is thing, we thought it would have been greeted with greater cheers, but the composition of the report was worrisome, small businesses

economy was roaring back, alan greenspan is here to tell you otherwise.ed on a special edition of "in the loop" today. >> despite the recent indications of a middle of the year rise, despite

from new york, new york, it's sherry greenspan! [cheers and applause] >> terry!oh, come over here. how you doing? >> oh, great. i love those shoes. >> oh, thank you. i like your shoes too. >> thank you.

from new york, new york, it's sherry greenspan! [cheers and applause] >> terry!ome over here. how you doing? >> oh, great. i love those shoes. >> oh, thank you. i like your shoes too. >> thank you. >> w

earlier, i asked alan greenspan about the market. here's what he had to say. >> there's something fundamental going on. we saw it very quietly a while , whichen saudi arabia would ordinarily be cutting back to gain re-stability in the market chose not to and prices began to fall and continue to markets continue to be weak, and it was largely because of the structure of the market has changed. in political news, u.s. or present of michael grimm will resign effective january 5. he was a republican who bowed not to resign, but -- who had vowed not to resign, but maybe decision after a conversation with john boehner. he was convicted last week of taxation and is also famous for threatening to throw a reporter off a balcony. a special edition of "street smart" starts right here at 2 p.m. today. stay with us. ♪ >> hi. >> good morning. >> tonight on "titans at the table" -- this place is gorgeous, it really is. i'll be chatting with billionaire businessman turned environmental activist tom steyer. tom steyer was born and raised in the finan

janet yellen channels alan greenspan from 2004, using the word, patients. a six month time span between using patience and seeing rates rise. there is a great article written by me showing you the moments. the little bit you want to tune in. when they get going, they have a habit of going quickly. it is up in the united kingdom. openyou have has yet to and you will get retail sales up. european leaders meet in agendas and part of that that they have is russia. had as the conversation i couple of minutes ago. this is the dollar down and the ruble rallying. you can see the biggest one day rally. what you are seeing is a bit of momentum and trying to hold onto the currency. hsbc says they are worried less about the currency. you wonder about the bigger and more meaningful impact, which is russia on europe and the demand on europe. the propensity to impact the european gross story. clear that they felt that it was contained and it was not 1998. credit outlot of there associated and that is your market open. you have the equity arising in the ruble rallying. you

. >> this is what we call a greenspan trophy, john. it goes to harry reid. >> i give it to the two senate leaders harry reid and mitch mcconnell. boring can be beautiful. they are having a very productive, well they had a very productive laying duck session this year. congratulates to both of them. >> tom? >> i think that it is going to be al sharpton just trying to be repetitive and tedious. >> mark? >> well again i'll go with harry reid as the leader of the democrats and the senate to just about putting everybody to sleep. it's almost a miracle that he is now going to come out as the majority leader. >> the most boring the so-call gop war on women. democratic campaign ads, hammered the theme relentlessly in the battleground states this year to the point where even most women voters toned them out. okay most charismatic, pat? >> i think pope francis, john. i think he beats out matthew mcconaughey. [ laughter ] >> is that a private joke? [ laughter ] >> you don't know matthew mcconaughey? you better go and look. >> put me on your list.

everyone is talking about patience, greenspan's word in 2004. >> the markets gyrate.on top of it. >> that goes without saying. we will analyze it all. were going to take a break. "surveillance" with tom keene and the team is up next. ♪ . . >> this is "bloomberg surveillance." as oil tries to find a bit with hope and at that city. russia intervenes a job on the ruble towards stability. the recitation for investors. janet yellen and they said they meet. -- janet yellen and he said -- they meet -- and the fed meet. good morning, everyone. this is "bloomberg surveillance." we are live from our world headquarter in new york. joining me scarlet fu and brendan greeley. our top headline -- i am guessing the ruble. >> you are absolutely right. earlier in the day, the russian currency strengthened into a seven-day wrap that had shaved off 22% value. it has now fallen back to the 67 to 68 range. the government's position -- the ruble is undervalued. >> of course everything we have been talking about is on the stabilization of the ruble. we believe that the exchange rate is not c

he seemed incapable of working without greenspan at the fed and his own treasury secretary, nick brady. he want to keep the united states recession from hitting. and, his reelection campaign, i did not recognize him. he was harsher and more shrill. >> bill clinton. i want to say this correctly -- he has a compelling posonality, incredible litical smarts. he overcame something that surprised me. i thought the impeachment and the personal stain of the monica lewinsky episode was something that people would not forget him for. it has been more than a decade. it seems that americans have very much forgiven him. behind the scenes, kind of controlling what the message was? >> one of the more affected people behind the scenes. bill clinton had a good staff. i think mike was a good choice to take over from myers. he did two things. mike did two things. able to him of being see around political corners. he would not stand at the podium and say something if he worried that, down the root word -- down the road, he would have to eat those words. he always thought out policy beyond the day or the w

they point to alan greenspan who was way after the fact criticized for not raising rates faster duringhe boom of the the 90s. the situation was very different in those days, or at least it appeared to be. but protecting jelen -- janet yellen, inflation seems to be a nonissue. >> but gas prices -- >> that himself a lot to do about it. >> vladimir putin thinks he can predict the end of the recession. on if it was that assy as, say, the weather? >> we don't even have a prediction of how the stock market operates. our technology is really being enhanced in what you can do in predicting these storm systems. i'm really, really happy with the technology we've had here at nbc bay area. i've been equipped with some of the best tools in the game and i know how to use them. this morning we have light activity, nothing heavy coming down. all the heavy stuff will hold off until tonight but we do have another round of wind and rain set to hit the bay area around midnight. you might find a little bit of drizzle out there but we're not going to have any active cells. we have wind out there keeping the

that was 18 years ago alan greenspan was talking about irrational exuberance. >> for our owe one k than now. >> -- liz: join the debate. do you agree with peter or agree with chris or agree with tracy. is it good or bad time to invest in gold. are there better trades. send us a message on facebook or tweet us @fbnatb for facebook, facebook.com/afterthebell. don't go away. coming up they're staying with us. we'll have the inside scoop of what silicon valley is saying about this. how much money do you have in your pocket right now? i have $40, $21. could something that small make an impact on something as big as your retirement? i don't think so. well if you start putting that towards your retirement every week and let it grow over time, for twenty to thirty years, that retirement challenge might not seem so big after all. ♪ liz: falling oil prices, yes, it happened again. have been good news for for consumers and businesses. could it be big news for oil companies trying to snap up other ones. back with tracy byrnes, chris gersh. chris, we saw it fall once again. we're down more than 30 p

i was going to say about what alan greenspan should have done and now you tell me. where was he then? but the fact of the matter is that these things come and go and long-term returns on stocks are driven by dividend yields which are low and price earnings multiples and moderately high so i don't think we expect very large returns in the future but i think we'll do better in the u.s. stock market than in the bond market and the international or nonu.s. markets and that over a long period of time, look at ten years and see what really counted back in that ancient year of 2014. >> jack, thank you. always good to hear a longer term perspective on this. first rule is don't do something, just stand there. >> happy and healthy one, mr. bogle. see you in the new year. >> same to you guys. good to be with you. >> thank you. >> thank you so much. 35 minutes to go before the bell rings on wall street. dow holding on to gains but only up 42 after being up more than 200 in the session. >>> coming up, you heard from jack bogle. we have jim grant to weigh in on the fed's policy m

>> that was former federal reserve chairman allen greenspan who made that statement on this day in 1996ioning whether the stock market is overvalued due to irational exuberance. >> i don't know if it was four years too early but it is no use to the average investor. you would have pulled out of stocks in '96 and missed one of the most historic runs of the stock market. there was a point where you should have pulled out. >> it was a great phrase. >> i'm sure -- he would point out that i asked a question but he knew he was doing more. >> it was so much more than that. >> the market likes today's jobs report. when it comes to finding jobs the sky is the limit. mary thompson has more on that. >> i am in the simulator where they train students for air traffic control jobs. the faa has to hire 10,000 new air traffic controllers in the next decade. these are people that monitor the 87,000 flights that take off and land here in the united states every day. the skies may be friendly but there is a constant need for people who keep the order, air traffic controllers. >> they have to be hired befo

if the book is 2004 under greenspan a quarter point at a time. he did it for years. get ready when it begins and the fed we'll make sure we're on right footing before we start. david: joe, i know you're a believer in etfs, the spdr, dow jones industrial spdr, i'm curious, where the dow jones is up 400 points in one day, wouldn't it be better to cherry-pick to find individual companies beaten down a little or did not piggyback on this rally today rather than an etf? >> you could. again it depends on what you do for people. we're taking care of people's entire wealth and we always tell them, they're going to be times when the market is slightly overexpensive and there are times when it will be cheaper and we have a long-term strategy. need to diversify. david: forgive me, don't you think the market is slightly overvalued right now? >> sure there is but there is no alternative. the consequence of fed and globally one of your guests mentioned incredible suppression of interest rates around the world. germany is below 1%, japan below 1%. we're at two. when you're seeing i

. >> heard from greenspan saying they completely ignored that aspect. >> joe, do you read the text? 2011 when commodity prices spiked, the market expected the fed to respond to that, and the fed looked through it, it was transit, and they were right. i expect the fed's looking through this as well saying, you know, this is a temporary shock to the cpi. >> all right. >> thanks, rick. >> let's get to steve leisman in washington, d.c. steve? >> yeah, i heard rick's question -- [ laughter ] >> you didn't ask him for help, steve? >> no, i don't need help from rick, but i like listening to him. i don't know why i'd ask the question why they didn't normalize. look at the numbers, it's a good thing we did not normalize. although, the guest host's right comment is the right one. you have food and energy up as expected, so the year over year on the core is still 1.7. looking down into the details of this report, you do have this apparel down 1.1%. i'm looking at things not related to energy necessarily. recreation, also a negative as well. education communications down 0.1. maybe there's some

of the data it utilizes, it's reading of the federalen prior reserve, particularly that of alan greenspan. >> i would say that janet yellen didn't see 5% gdp coming and it is a lagging indicator. but with the jobs created in the month of november, 5.3% on a clinic, do you think janet yellen starts to get a little less patient? >> we will have to see what happens in the fourth quarter, how the growth comes out, where we see various revisions going forward. third quarter terrific. we have to look at the fourth. consideration moving forward is how the first quarter of the year comes out. the markets have been spectacularly resilient so far. we consider maybe a bit of a pullback on profit taking after the celebration. and positioning for 2015. >> where do you find a value 18,000? >> this is the legacy of bernanke's relative valuation market. inyou really want to be bonds with investable assets, 2.26 last time i looked bac? take a look at where commodities are, and consider the demand for commodities. the efficiencies that have, on producing commodities, utilizing them. the real, energy is tha

the 25 basis point increases we saw under the greenspan fed. there have been questions about whether or not the head can move in a similar fashion or whether she feels strongly about the pretty clear she is not a fan of a major pace. >> i have seen quite a few people looking back on the use of that language in the -- i cannot remember if it was 12 or 16 meetings where there were 25 basis point moves. we would probably not like to repeat a sequence in which there was a measured pace in 25 basis point moves at every meeting. i certainly do not want to encourage you to think that there will be a repeat of that. >> that means less addictive bill of the -- less predictability arguably. they could sit on their hands to see how inks shake out. that is the message she wanted to convey. she wants flexibility to the fed. i think she probably got it after the news conference. >> thank you so much, peter cook. let's return overseas to vladimir putin's speech. it just ended a few moments ago. it was carried live on tv around the world. putin voiced confiden

>> a little more clarity than we got from the statement. .n awkward effort a joke from alan greenspanstood what i said, you must have failed. 'that was not janet yellen's goal. all along theid early at the middle of next year. the problem is the u.s. economy has been growing faster than forecast. they raised their growth forecasts yesterday 42015 and lowered their unemployment forecast. they did not want investors to read that as a signal that they are going to raise rates early in the year. so we get this awkward statement instead of eliminating their promise to leave rates low for a considerable time and replace it with the word patient, they left both in the statement. janet yellen did say that met at meetings the first two in january and march. they could go in april but that is not a press conference meeting. it leaves us with june, which is where they were all along. >> if inflation is still forecast to fall, wire they are track for higher rates. >> they are looking at the core rate, 1.6%. is notstabilizes that going to go down and it might start to rise. they can use it as an e

. >> sam, that makes perfect sense, but i would go back to alan greenspan testimony before congress inf the financial crisis most of you said the cardinal mistake he made as chairman of the federal thatve was in expecting bank ceos would husband their own capital and not make irresponsible loans and do irresponsible things, like load up on stuff they plan to warehouse and turn it into ceo's. clearly, what you are doing and what lending club is doing is different, but what is there to make sure you do not make the same types of mistakes? you talk about the importance of credit. they forgot about the importance of credit. marketplace business model has an advantage over a bank or balance sheet lender in that way. ultimately, our lenders are keeping us honest. -- our credit. erc the loans we are doing fundamentally change, they will put the -- if they see our credit change fundamentally, or the loans we are making change fundamentally, they will stop giving us funding. we are pricing in a way that is attractive and because we have a variety of different providers of capital lending throug

. >> the fed came to the rescue under greenspan and the other day under yellen. >> i love the press conferencethis week. this is just what we need from a central back. talk about a majesterial tone. very, very calm, measured. reminder that the fed looks at long-term trends, data driven. the data is good. lower oil prices are good. catastrophically low oil prices might not be. this is all very positive. data is very strong. i thought she gave a very calm, measured and calming optimistic look at the state of the u.s. economy. >> so you remain bullish. >> why not? we are back near an all-time high. if you had gone to sleep december 5th and waking up today, you would say what is all this fuss about? >> as always, thanks for being with us. >> thank you. >>> the promise of restoring diplomatic relations between this country and cuba is bringing about a lot of expectations for the days to come. what is the next step? cnbc's chief international correspondent is live in havana. what is the latest? >> the next step they have to start rewriting some of the regulations. the division of treasury that overs

this was affected by greenspan in 1999. then the other one was a caller from north carolina. he was great talking about reimplemented glass-steagall, i completely agree. the question for emily is fail and under the glass-steagall act , it is my understanding that when banks default or go bankrupt, they will now accuse depositors money to offset losses, whether then bail out. could you talk about that? >> thank you. frank has a whole new system for how we deal with this. the reason is the fdic, the of lots and lots of banks in the country has always the process for when a smaller bank fails, they seize it and restructure its, and they have a process for dealing with failed smaller banks. when we got into the crisis, he relies there was no process for dealing with a gigantic global or non-bank financial institution like aig. tries to get at that. what they say is they have to write living wills. it is their blueprint for if they were to fail, how they could be guided through bankruptcy. also, the process that the fdic takes over, which is called authority.uidation what it says

in the old days alan greenspan used to say when a congressman would ask him after a 5%, 10% correction of that? is the economy rolling over? he said the stock market predicted 9 out of the last one recessions. take the stock market as a fairly volatile day-to-day indicator of things. the qe process worked miracles. it will work miracles in japan and europe. as we reposition the dollar as stronger, it's going to create winners and losers. what the s&p is doing now is trying to figure out who is going to make with it a stronger dollar and hoe is not going to make it with a stronger dollar. >> let's bring in michael cohen. you do have an energy prast forecast. what are you seeing in terms of price action? any sign we are hitting bottoms on wti and brent crude? >> at this point i think we continue to test the new lows as a result of the opec decision a couple of weeks ago. saudi arabia has made the case that they are not willing to step in and support the price level with cuts to production. we'll see supply and demand side adjust. we are going to continue to see very strong production. >>

when you think about where emerging market debt is or even more so alan greenspan talked about the unitedtes could not be an island oasis among the terrible things out there. do you think we can be that oasis? what do you think about emerging market debt and strengthening dollar and expense of the debt on that side to be problematic? >> no question a rising dollar and might add falling commodity prices is usually not good for emerging markets. whether something breaks is the question. if nothing breaks then it's just matter of economic growth and as you know only 12% of the u.s. economy is exports. we're relatively insulated, isolated compared to for example, germany where almost half of its economy is exports. big, big difference. you are right. we have to keep our eye on that area. economically, i don't think they give us a big problem. the question is, is there a financial disconnect? >> 70% consumer driven economy. thinking of us as an oasis, i agree with bob. i think the u.s. can withstand issues of tn outside and survive and grow in spite of not having successoverseas. >> you talked

alan greenspan weighs in on the year that is ahead.its 56 past the hour, we are on the markets. 30 minutes into the trading session and we are getting you caught up. stocks are on the way up. markets did reopen after the christmas break. trading is razor thin. the s&p is up 4/10 of 1%. oil price.ve that the s&p right there is closing in on 2100. we are nine points away from what could be a bullish year. this is michael purvis. michael joins me with how you got it so right. what did you know that other strategists work factoring in it? >> when i put together my forecast a year ago, i was not bullish on the economy. was going to be single-digit earnings growth. i was the big bowl on multiple expansion. >> your peers received a contraction. >> when you look at the forecast,hest price this multiple expansion against that wass something hesitant to a lot of traders. the margins can still put in returns without the acceleration in gdp. >> i hope you get a bonus for that. i hope your bosses watching. we can hit it in the next couple of minute

not 2.5% to 3% and that whole period in the asian meltdown, the greenspan fed with a tightening biasbooks on the whole period until long-term capital was unwound and never raised rates and the stronger dollar is going to do a lot of tightening for the fed next year. >> david, that is big call. it's a nonconsensus call. they're expecting a second half interest rate increase in 2015. so how does your view to not raise rates change the investing landscape? mean that stocks continue this secular bull market, treasuries continue and the dollar keeps getting stronger relative to everyone snels. >> okay. that's an easier call than trying to call the next two weeks. so, basically talking about an end to the bull market, what we have to have happen is a recession. every recession's had a bear market. every bear market's had a recession and takes ultimately a rate hiking cycle that unvert s the rate curve. the fed on hold, bond yield's at 2%. a stronger dollar actually tells me that even though the earnings landscape is challenged obviously by the weakness in the overseas economy, that's not g

the late '90s and greenspan talking about irrational xub rans and the fed worried of whether or not too respond to the russian crisis and what happened? the u.s. stock market went into, you know, parabolic. a couple of years later. the fed responding to international concerns to some extent even while the domestic economy was picking up. do you see those parallels? >> only for sure the draghi got a whole bunch of people now to say, you know, we don't really need to do the stimulus because we are getting a stimulus from the fact that oil prices are going down and if you're in europe and i agree with stephanie. i love the united states. i have 70% of the investments here in good, old american companies and in europe do i sell it? do i hold on to it? how long is it going to be? waiting for the europeans to mimic what we're doing here in the policy. they haven't done it. >> there's more evidence today. that's what some of the reporting was that knocked down the market and draghi didn't have a majority of the ecb behind him and maybe fiscal policy wouldn't follow suit. >> there's more money

say the fed goes to 25 or 50 basis points in 2015, alan greenspan talked about the interest conundrumn as they raise rates, long-term rates were coming down and only so much the fed does. there's a global market determined interest rate environment that is incredibly low and i expect that's incredibly low, just the cost of capital globally is low. >> exactly. don't you think that if we have an environment where we have growth but at the same time we have enough concerns out there to moderate the concern we're going to have excess growth and keeps rates low? >> absolutely. that's a total recipe for equities to go modestly or more and why david tepper's concern and what we talked about a lot on cnbc. overstated. >> it is not 1999 all over again or is it? >> well no. i'm a simple man, kelly. i look out there and i see gas prices are low. but crude oes not in free fall. natural gas also low. it's the holiday season. the visa u.s. vice president told us after black friday, after cyber monday sales picked up. iphone 6 and 6 plus, one product that actually moves national numbers, it is doing

rick, as well, rick, we might have to bring you back for the greenspan conundrum if the long end doesn'tamid all of this. now a quick market flash. hi, dom. >> kelly, we have kirby corporation, provides marine transportation and diesel engine here in the united states and moving lower to 6% after hours after cutting the fourth quarter and full-year guidance due to a sharp drop rather in oil prices. again, those shares down again by 6%. light trade, 8,000 shares traded so far in the after hours back over to you. >> damage from that decline, thank you. a ton of other news today outside of the fed and wall street and historical day here in the u.s. is president obama's move to open relations with cuba a good move? we'll talk about that next. >>> plus, it's being pulled by more movie chains after threats of violence and more may follow suit. will sony release "the interview" on christmas day? and are theaters making the right decision not to show the movie? your chance to weigh in. once there was a girl who always mixed and matched. even in her laundry room. with downy unstopables for long-l

notion that where the market might have it wrong is a notion of automatic quarter-point hikes the way greenspan did it. i don't think that's the case this time. >> call me crazy. i just refuse to believe that the market is ready to accept it. i think that the day that considerable time language comes out of the statement the market's going to have a tant m tantrum. i'm not saying a heart attack but not a happy thing for a lot of investors that expect the party to go on forever. >> that assumes they're not paying attention. >> they can telegraph it as much as they want. >> you think the market doesn't react to what happens, not discounting it in the future? >> i just -- i'll believe it when i see it, i suppose. >> okay. >> i think far more interesting is your contrarian view about maybe they don't do something next year and gun wilak says 10-year could go to 1%. when everybody believes something, everybody's often wrong, right? >> i have bigger issues with that. 10-year to 1%, it's a far different conversation. >> thank you. you still across the street from univision, dorothy? >> no, no. in cora

we talked to alan greenspan, the former fed chair. he has an idea about what is going to happen next. >> there is nothing in monetary history would suggest that you can create the degree of balances in central banks that we have now without ultimately engendering a hiccup in the price level. >> he said there's no way to avoid inflation. how do you see this? >> first, i still marvel that he can still talk fed the -- fed speak even though he's not there anymore. it is hard to parse exactly what he's saying. but we think there is no way that inflation can go of at this point, but with all prices down 40 plus percent, there is obviously deflation in the wake of the fed's decision not to buy the securities. and interest rates, especially high yield rate, have begun to back up into something that resembles normalcy. it does seem for the moment that the fed is able to walk this incredibly fine line. but how it really plays out in 2015 is going to be fascinating. at some point, they will have to raise rates and it is going to potentially curb

we will follow all of the big market moving headlines with alan greenspan, alan krueger, and michael holland tomorrow starting at 7:00 a.m. i hope you have a great day today. ♪ >> it is 56 as the hour, which means bloomberg television is on the markets. i'm mia saini. 30 minutes into this training session, let's get you caught up. the s&p 500 hit some all-time high, the record high post of you can see it is premature flat session for the s&p and the dow, of about 13% or so. muted gains across the board. oil is gaining after investors believe that an escalating conflict in libya may actually impair a global surplus. a rebound today, but down more than 40% so far this year. joining me with a look at what you should be watching as we head into next year's isaac earned stores. -- is isaac. we have to talk about the conflict in libya because what we are seeing in libya could affect the surplus. what is the return of supply in libya is one of the things -- >> yes, the return of supply in libya is one of the things that brought us to where we are today. that the progress could be reversed a

alan greenspan missed it. and i think that that was a major event. >> let me ask mark then too.mentals and the market has a discounting mechanism out in nine months, how would you ever know? or you just never sell? you are just peter lynch and buy and hold. how will you know if all you use is fundamental? >> well i think that's always very difficult. obviously you can look at measures like the simple pe or the shiller pe adjusted price earnings ratio. none of those mechanisms are necessarily great at timing the market. they do point to levels of under or over-valued. and have you be sidelined or missing out on opportunities. but i think that's where it's important to weave the technical aspect into them. i think that helps. it doesn't preclude you from participating in a decline, but it may sideline you earlier than going down fully with the market in a massive downdraft like in 2008. >> is janney saying get out completely? >> we're not completely eliminating bonds from our portfolio. they have strategic value for clients trying to temper equity. but we think there's value in th

>> because we have an easy fed as greenspan was easy in the mid-2000s, they build up a wage inflationollapse of 2014 will generate supply-demand changes that give you the oil price spike of 2018. we're going to slowly cut back the investment in oil and productive -- >> the price comes raging back? >> not raging back in a month or six months, but you go down three or four years later, you'll get that spike. that's kind of what we've seen over history. when you way over do it on the downside in oil prices give it a couple years, you way over do it on the upside. keep in mind recessions are triggered by oil price spikes. people talk about lehman brothers. we had oil at $145 july 4th independence day of 2008. the big recession, almost always come from the big spike in oil prices. i'm not worried about 2015. i'm not worried about 2016. not too much about 2017. i think the bill comes due in 2018. that's too far in the future to worry about now. >> dick also maybe we are in a low inflation environment. inflation is not a natural thing. it feels that way for open of our age living through the

it was something that greenspan could have done. it is something that she's in charge.sn't overheat. there's nothing the matter with doing that. but to take the fed funds rate up to 4%, create an inverted yield. in order to be able to satisfy all the people that are short. it's like, yeah, let's just run the whole market for the shorts. let's just go and do it. >> someone else was pointing out that the nasdaq went up 400% after inappropriate easing, because of foreign conditions in late 1998. >> well, that's absolutely true. >> we're not there. >> it's a casualty of the market. honestly, if you want to throw everybody in recession and have a gigantic year for hedge funds, terrific. that's never been my style. but you know what, maybe the hedge funds, there's 317 million americans. and there's, what, like 100 hedge funds that matter? maybe 100 versus 317, i'm going with the 317. raise the margin rates. it is up to the fed, the margin rates. that could really help. and also, let the bengals come out and everybody's happy. >> bengals -- jim, you know, they're 10-20 on mond

. >> if you remember back, greenspan was trying to raise rates in the early 2000s.e. it kept going down because of foreign demand for u.s. treasuries. that was his so-called conundrum nap could happen again. because the german rate's 30 bips. and u.s. treasury yield is at -- >> i didn't think of that. that puts a very interesting spin on how the fed manages all of that. >> wuch is another reason, good news for the u.s. economy. if rates are so low. how do you get a 3% treasury? very unlukly. >> companies will continue to -- number seven. continue to reward shareholders with buybacks and dividend increases. that's kind of obvious. i mean you don't need to explain that. andrew doesn't like buybacks. >> i like them when the company's making a lot of money. >> just last week boeing the raised their dividend and buyback. >> it was the other one we made a big deal out, disney. all right. market will continue to enjoy gridlock. that is a cynical, ward. >> it's a fact. and that's been true of recent years. >> these republicans better start playing and let the president do a