greenspan: the key issue is to what extent is it growing. reason why i think stagflation is relevant is there are two forces going on. what the money supply which has been growing at 6% annual rate very steadily earlier this year tilted up and we are now close to 9% annual rate. that is unnecessary but not a sufficient condition to get the inflation rate going quickly. but we are also finding the labor force is running out of extra workers. when wages are moving in the money supply is accelerating, those are critical issues. they are on the move at the evidence on see no the part of either republicans or the democrats or anybody else for that matter willing to come to grips because is politically hot potato. david: doubles former federal reserve chairman alan greenspan. i to away a warning from the fed. we can see growth in the equity markets but not real fundamental, underlying growth but we're not investing in the increase productivity because we're spending money on entitlements. jonathan: i wonder if he would've hiked interest rates yest

chairman greenspan: that is a major issue.ne of the things i watch every morning is the spread of what we o.ll target t to is the european central bank mechanism in which the individual banks, the bundesbank, all of them, are lending to each other. game, andro-some whether it is developed -- the bundesbank has thrown 600 billion euros to the rest of europe, with spain and italy being the two which are continuously batching. you have -- matching. you get the bundesbank assets going up, and the two -- spain and italy -- liabilities matching them. that is a situation which cannot persist and definitely. it is going to give -- and i think the real danger is that italy might be in more trouble than we think. zi had the right solutions. he got voted down. this is a worldwide phenomenon. we have this international shift, which is -- not only brexit, it is scotland. there were considerable discussions about northern ireland. italy, spain,nto which is always in a state of turmoil, and the grandchild of all of them, greece. greece has b

haidi: former fed chairman alan greenspan speaking to bloomberg. mobil's rex tillerson will be nominated as president-elect trump secretary of state, setting up a potential confirmation battle because of his close relationship with russia. >> all the action will come down to the senate foreign relations committee. january, and there's not a lot of wiggle room. if republicans pass him out of that committee, it seems hard to believe that he could be stopped. the republicans to watch for our marco rubio, bob corker, rand paul, but questions from the republican side will come down to his involvement with russian political leaders, including vladimir putin, and his views on russian-u.s. policy and his work on behalf of exxon. >> were russians pleased with the nomination? vladimir putin gave him the order of the deal in russia. a close aide said rex tillerson is a great professional, and we heard from a parliament member who said this will create a sensation if it came to be, which denomination has, so the russians indicating publicly that they know this

greenspan: the labor force is running out of extra workers. the on employment rate now is under 5%. -- unemployment rate is under 5%. you cannot go much lower than the 152 200,000 increase in payrolls a month. it will not continue on because we are running out of people. lou have special coverage of the fed starting at 6 p.m. london time. the press conference something you want to watch out for. the projections something you want to watch out for. what will those dots deliver for us this time around. what are you looking for tonight? are all most certain there would be a rate hike. guy: what are we expecting? guest: we will get a couple of hikes next year but the commentary will remain dovish because we are going through this time of uncertainty. that may need to change in the next year now that oil is doing well. the headline will be in creasing. i think at this stage we are erring on the side of caution. guy: you have been onset talking about carrier the way to make money. is that still work? guest: carrier is difficult. trump has -- trump's

alan greenspan.you could use a market-based commodity, 25 commodities and that's judging the value of the dollar both in inflation is rising but the market is rising, that tells you you got to do something, tighten up the dollar. if it's smaller, that tells you shoot you should probably loosen up. i don't know that i'd use, i'm an old gold guy. i just think nowadays you probably have to make the basket a little larger and we're never going to have balance of transfers in gold. and in the fed, i've worked at the fed and help market operations and they use to literally move gold from one country to another if they fell down the payments, they don't do that anymore. so robert sent i'd like to make you both happy and give you each a magic wand and prefix the policy actions that you think would be the only entry on you don't have to agree but threepolicy pics you would implement right now whetherit's immigration, regulatory , cooperative factors , whatever. what would be the three things that you would wi

the book saw a surge in new readers and greenspan set the market lower.he dow closed at 6,400 in 1996, and shifted into high gear before peeking three years later. the bottom fell out a year later when the rally hit 11,000. so was greenspan early or simply wrong considering the market almost doubled from the day of that siren call? i think he was wrong on the economy, but he hit on something saying exuberance, without visible signs of market action drives people to buy at the bottom and sell at the top. the nation is emerging from a dormant period of internal pessimism to an exuberance that i think can fuel a long-time rally. this time it will be main street driven, not wall street driven. i have been talking about animal spirits. there is something that came out today, there is a surge right now in orders for class a commercial trucks. first time we have seen new orders surge above the year ago period. they are putting in orders. the news set the truck dealers higher. pat car which is the one you can buy, they have 27% of the market share up 3.7%. i thin

washington post columnist recalls the former chairman alan greenspan. >> it was alan greenspan who rebuilt the authority and created an independence. and i think it's time like now when it's under attack from politicians it behooves us to study under someone who is the expert, who looks at that who looks at that, that was adam greenspan. >> that's a look at notable books according to economists. book tv has covered many authors and you can watch the program on our website. booktv.org. >> college presidents, larry arndt, tell us your goal with your book, churchill's trial what are we going to learn? >> i spent a lot of time trying to figure out what churchill means, my goal in the book was to state that that's what i set out do. >> what did you

that was called greenspan's conundrum. where are about to get the conundrum again.a: thank you very much for your thoughts, david stubbs from j.p. morgan asset management. coming up, powering down and heating up. we talked to one man who's betting on icelandic hot springs as a cleaner alternative. better late than never. the fed is expected to deliver its first rate hike of the year today. investors ask what is the plan for 2017? we put that question to the hsbc chairman douglas flint in our exclusive conversation. more of that conversation with francine and douglas flint. this is bloomberg. ♪ anna: welcome back. this is a live shot of new york. it's 1:53 in the morning. futures flat at the start of trade. later in the day we will see what happens when we hear from janet yellen and her team at the at omc let's talk about clean energy, and the u.k. is phasing out coal-fired power stations. -- seeking backing from teresa gate -- theresa may's government to build a 1000 mile long undersea cable that would provide the u.k. with power from iceland. that speak to him now.

i was alan greenspan. >> welcome to the hoover institution's washington d.c.. i am the director here and it'si a real pleasure today to be able to introduce our honored guest. heather hendershot is a professor at m.i.t.. she is a professor of film and media player and has written a number of books. we met about a year ago in a conference put on by the sutton program at yale and i can see at the time that she had some real affinity for trying to understand the connection between the communications world and the media world on one hand and the conservative movement on the other.r. so this is a natural outgrowth of her previous work looking at that general area. open -- "open to debate" is the book. heather has watched maybe notr ev

. >> reporter: next stop, we take dj to see bennett greenspan, the ceo of familytree dna. >> so let'slet's look at your dna. and if you look right here, you have one match. >> reporter: in what seems to be an early breakthrough, some of dj's dna is matching up with someone else in the database. >> it doesn't get a lot better than that. >> it's pretty incredible, huh? >> that is. [ laughter ] wow. >> reporter: but who is it? when we last left searcher amanda holdiness, things were looking up for her as well. her mother has given her a name, a man she says is her biological father. now it's up to pam to track him down. and just like that, she does. in jupiter. jupiter, florida. but her newfound father figure suggests they do a dna test, and the results are devastating. they are not related at all. so amanda, dejected, goes back to her mother, asking her for other names of men who might be her father. >> i said, can you remember anybody else? she's like, "the only person i can remember is samuel." >> reporter: and this was samuel skinner. >> correct. >> reporter: samuel skinner -- a man

been 20 years since greenspan's famous irrational comments.arities between now and 1996 when it comes to over exuberance? john: i hope so. remember, it was a question and it was classic alan greenspan trying to figure out what the truth was. it is hard to know when we are overly exuberant. overok at so many things our shoulders, summoning things that happened that when things start to go better we ignore them. until i see that enthusiasm, i think we are on fairly safe ground. julie: chief equity strategist at wells fargo funds management. mark: coming up on bloomberg we are going to get the state of the media industry with some big interviews at the media conference. 11:30 eastern, 4:30 london. chairman, and also mark thompson will be our guest. busy day. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ mark: the sun is the sending in london. i am mark barton. julie: let's head back to abigail doolittle. she is looking at bank financials leading the gains. we have bank of america, citigroup, and jpmorgan trading sharply higher. jpmorgan is hitting a new record high. in

>> it became a symbol of allen greenspan, and there were cartoons in the new yorker which showed himrance died. on the one hand, stocks are up 150% since he made that speech, so if you held on to them you would be happy, but the second thing is, we already had the 2.0, that was the housing bust, and that taught us we cannot as greenspan said, wait for the bubble to burst and mop things up. >> what is relevant today, you are saying the central bank should have came in earlier and raised rates even more than it raised them at the time? >> i think the housing bubble teaches us you cannot ignore asset prices, and does that mean you should do something different on regulation, the so-called macro controls, so when the market pops you don't lose a lot of banks sore does it mean as a last resort you should raise interest rates. the internet stock bubble bursts and it was not that bad for the economy. >> david, what if you decided to burst the bubble at 5,000? >> that's all we need are these -- >> you are right. it's really hard to know in advance, and there were a lot of people saying housi

[laughter] more from former fed chair alan greenspan later on bloomberg.ch out for more interviews with the former ecb president and bank of england governor mark carney. bloomberg will have special coverage on wednesday on the fed decision beginning at 1:00 p.m. in new york and 2:00 a.m. in hong kong. if you are staying up for that. host: and you might. [laughter] pretty exciting markets. coming up, investing markets, or emergent ones? this is bloomberg. ♪ betty: this is "bloomberg daybreak: asia." >> confidence among hong kong manufacturers has improved the first since june last year. our next guest says his expectations remain weak, opened towards more fiscal stimulus. he joins us live from singapore. really great to have you. we were speaking on the survey earlier this morning from tankan. he had a red flag when it came to the yen. he said the u.s. registration and donald trump will realize this might not be a good idea for the economy. what was your take on the overall? feel about the business sentiment that we see in japan? it seems to remain the sam

and then one of the bushes, the first bush made it difficult for greenspan. maybe i'm still dating myself. i think her days are numbered. i think when we come around in 2018, i think she's going to be gone. trump has shown to want to put his people in there. i think she's just going to run out the clock. >> suppose he likes her and easy money. there's benefit -- >> change in the white house. >> benefits to keeping someone who likes the gas pedal. donald may go that way. >> thank you all. >> he'll want to foil as well. >> good cop/bad cop. >> i want to thank all of you. federal reserve hiking interest rates but brace yourself. it's still under 1%. bank lending rates are still historically low. take it from me, they've been higher than that. the pursuit to get the electorates to read the russian role in the election has reached a new nasty level. a push that seems to me at least to have gone one argument too far. >> do you think it want her message that reached voters who were subject to high unemployment states like wisconsin and michigan that that wasn't what

so something like we're in. >> well, look, i think greenspan learned his lesson.eve that you set yourself up. there's no reason for the federal reserve to ever put themselves in a situation where we re-run a tape that makes them look so foolish. alan greenspan is not a foolish man, but that's one of those comments where you say to yourself what was he thinking, because it turned out to be rational and exuberant. >> yeah. >> and we're rational and exuberant right now according to the buyers taking the dow up, because they believe we're in a new regime that's going to grow much more. are they apropos of each other? there are times when animal spirits run and we cite cummins and caterpillar won't be hurt and by deregulation and by what's happening in oil and gas, so i struggle here like everybody trying to be not too bullish. that's what i think people are trying to do. >> i know what you mean. and as for the fed it's one thing for yellen to answer a question about biotech valuations on the hill. but it's another to put words like that in a speech and read them off.

we will also talk with alan greenspan in anticipation of the fed meeting.are seeing inflation but no underlying growth. manipulator,rrency and he is very concerned about the future of the euro. guy: thank you very much. i want to take you to my terminal and show you the bloomberg. this is target 2. this is germany up on the net side of the balance sheet. this is the rest of europe on the other. the spread between the two is as wide as it was during the peak of the financial crisis. there is a slow bank run happening in italy. jean-claude trichet, former ecb president. still with us. how concerned should we be that the target 2 imbalances are beginning to look as they were back in the height of the financial crisis in europe? i do not think it is exactly the same interpretation. economy withingle a single market, a single currency, and of course capital can move from the one part of the single market to the other. it is the free move of capital. second, germany is posting a current account some plus -- a current account surplus of 8.5% to 9% of the gdp. to g

, and alan greenspan is on the hill and basically saying lee raymond's speech. >> guest: right. >> host: if on solyndra, which is the solar company that has grabbed headlines and failed finish. >> guest: right. >> host: -- if big oil is behind that given their animosity towards kind of renewables and the subsidies renewables require, do you see any evidence of that? >> guest: is it the government making this bad loan -- >> host: not making the bad loan, but fan the flames of criticism when the loan went bad. >> guest: yeah. i think the american petroleum institute, they're a spun-up communications machine that seizes every opportunity, and their political allies did the same thing. but, yeah, i mean, i think the underlying question about alternatives in exxonmobil is, it's, you know, they're a corporation, they can pursue whatever business strategy they want. the question is as a country do we want to create subsidies and incentives for a shift to alternatives of the sort that the loan program that ended up with solyndra provided, and why would we? so if you look at it, we've been talki

us to study under someone who is the expert, who looks at that who looks at that, that was adam greenspan. >> that's a look at notable books according to economists. book tv has covered many authors and you can watch the program on our website. booktv.org. >> college presidents, larry arndt, tell us your goal with your book, churchill's trial what are we going to learn? >> i spent a lot of time trying to figure out what churchill means, my goal in the book was to state that that's what i set out do. >> what did you learn? the book was much harder trait than i thought. by the time i started the book i've been studying churchill for about 40 years. it takes that long, he wrote so much. i made the terrible mistake of thinking it will be relatively easy compared to the things i had written, it's much harder than i had thought because when you start writing it down and start trying to get an account of the main themes in his life and thinks he advocated or defended it turns out they relate to one another more deeply and in more complex ways than i had imagined. i came to understand him better

after the near collapse of global markets, former federal reserve chairman alan greenspan said, "no two anything in common except human nature." and that is where we pick up with pulitzer prize-winning journalist thomas friedman. what part did we as individuals play in what went wrong? what can we do better? thomas: when someone comes to you, selling you a home mortgage, and telling you the only thing they need to do is check if you can fog up a knife, and not show your income statement, that is a pretty good sign that it sounds too good to be true. it usually is. also, should we really have to pass a law tlls tenkers, "you cannot give a loan to someone who cannot pay it back?" i mean, do we need to pass a law to do that? so people were doing such manifestly obviously unsustainable things because they always thought, what i call ibg or ybg, i will be gone or you will gone. i will do this mortgage, because i will be gone. i will package this into 1000 bonds, i will sell it to somebody, and i will be gone. they pawn it off to another investment bank in france and they will be gone. you ca

. >> i knew it by the author, greenspan used it.s -- >> the modern-day shakespeare. >> but taxes, let's lower taxes. what are we going to do about the majority of businesses that file as individuals? how are we going to solve that problem? with regulations, let's repeal so many relllations that are business-friendly. which are they? not all the regulations that came about under president obama are dumb. >> do you have proof of that? >> there's going to be a good deal of work. absolutely, there's on the muscle, when -- >> like fake news. >> when ceos -- >> that will be a good thing for the economy at large. >> i agree. there's that smile again. there's definitely a difference. you were sullen. that's a strong word, but -- >> there wasn't a lot to and it was just ugly. and like you said, the acrimony and it just seemed is like everything was negative and cynical and in general, i'm an optimistic guy. i like to -- >> well, i would be, too, if i were you. >> anyway. we'll talk more today. >> coming up, when we return, nbc news political

. >> alan greenspan created dependence and bedtime like now that it booms us to parlay that into political influence. . >> military force that the public gets impatient because they really believe that they have this trump card that can defeat anyone but did is not true is very powerful can only win in certain situations and now they cannot build a new order in its place. >> what we don't want to do is respond in such a way to have more militant organizations they want us to overreact and occupy the muslim country so they can build recruitment they want us to torture people into things to make the case against us were been

alan greenspan himself a few months ago talking 5% or 6% interest rate.eil: market seem to be pooh-poohing all these possibilities. >> they high -- higher rates. and if there only experience, single digit mortgage rates, whatever historical abnormality of that is if you are used to mortgages that move to four or five, that is a jolt for you. i wonder how that will go down. >> if you were an alien and came to earth in the last 20 years and looked at the relationship between stocks and bonds, that will go up together. speaking of the last 20 years. as you see the impact of higher rates coming done whether it is fed driven or in the case of donald trump deficit spending, economic growth, inflation, those are things to watch if you own stocks because stocks have thrived on low interest rates. neil: assuming if you were an alien that you knew there was a vote or a correlation but a brilliant point. >> you saw a 2500 point hike in the dow, in a month. that just happened. we are in reality markets. once we see what happens when trump, the trifecta or hat trick,

alan greenspan shares his thoughts on the economy and politics. with some of the biggest most powerful leaders in technology industry today, including the ceos of apple, amazon, and ibm. cory johnson is live at trump tower. a rare and exclusive interview with douglas flint. in we are halfway into the trading day. julie hyman is standing by. julie: stocks are not much changed, which is not terribly

stanford university, alan greenspan on the other side about discretion.re are you on discretion for any given central bank? abby: the word i think that is most critical is fed independence. i think that to look ahead to 2017, one of the big political footballs may prove to be the independence of the fed, which i think must be sacrosanct in this country. when we talk of the taylor rule, i think that's a good starting point. the fed obviously uses many different mathematical models to try to determine where they want to be, where they think interest rates will be, but the taylor rule by itself is just one tool, in my view, in the larger tool bag. tom: are the checks and balances within the washington system to give us william mcchesney's miracle of 1951. you served with a very independent fed 25 years on. we want to drive that, everyone agrees with you, are the checks and balances to push back the -- balances their to push back the mood of so much support of the president? abby: i think it's important that it not be just the president, but also the congress

janet yellen is not a creature like perhaps chair greenspan.ar how she could fend it off. she did slip in something, i could stay beyond my term as a governor. only one fed chair has ever done t despitehe did i president truman. kathleen: bill gross was on television, the bond king. he said she has to be careful because of the dollar and emerging markets. diane: that is where one of the pressure points is. the spread between the 10 year german bond, it has gone to a wide level. this is the source of instability in financial markets going forward. part of the reason they want to go so gradually, and she pulls is even small changes in interest rates have onoutsized impact currencies. the spillover effect for currencies, given how interlinked the global economy is on financial markets, whatever happens abroad, can wash up back on our own shores. king this fine line. there is a this dissonance between what the fed is doing and other central banks are doing. kathleen: i find it interesting out, janetpointed yellen saying, maybe i could stay on. bett

a new fed chairman in this massive battle to calm overrules and discretion. , alanrd university greenspann the other side talking about strategy. where you on that? abby: the word i think that is most critical is fed independence. to look ahead to 2017, 1 of the big political footballs may prove to be sacrosanct in this country. when we talk of the taylor rule, i think that's a good starting point. the fed uses mathematical models to try to term and where they want to be, where they think it is rates will be, but the taylor rule by itself is just one tool, in my view, in the larger tool bag. tom: are the checks and balances within the washington system to give us the miracle of 1951. you served with a very independent fed 25 years on. that, everyonee agrees with you, are the checks and balances to push back the mood of so much support of the president? abby: i think it's important that it not be just the president, but also the congress that acknowledges that the fed should be independent. when the federal reserve chair comes and gives testimony before congress, it's important that that b

was thealan greenspan head of the fed, there was a thought that the business cycle had been repealed.ed out to not be the case. have world war ii, as i said before, we have have had recessions on average of every seven years. i think what has happened now is we have pushed it down the road a little bit because the stock market is more brilliant -- a -- atant -- a boolean ebouillant >> how much. of a bloomberg we going to get? how much of a bust is going to follow? >> no one knows for sure. there's no doubt that you are pushing it down the road and the decline could be greater than would otherwise be the kreis -- the case. but i don't think we will see anything like 2006 or 2007. have, ithe one that we is modest, but it won't likely be in 2017. you are likely to see stimulus from the congress and tax cuts that will as a result push down any recession for quite some time. >> how do you process all of this as an investor? where are you in your cycle? >> depends on what part of the world we are looking at, but in the united it's we are determined to make investments because you think it's

but remember yesterday on the 20th anniversary of that famous comment by alan greenspan about irrationalout bubbles that were building. what if i told you he wasn't the only one and that very term, irrational exuberance, it wasn't greenspan who came up with? it's my next guest, robert shiller, who's here next. ♪ ♪ ace the full value of your totaled new car. the guy says, "you picked the wrong insurance plan." no, i picked the wrong insurance company. with new car replacement™, we'll replace the full value of your car plus depreciation. liberty mutual insurance. and her new mobile wedding business.tte at first, getting paid was tough... until she got quickbooks. now she sends invoices, sees when they've been viewed and ta-da, paid twice as fast! that expression was around even before all of this. neil: i actually coined it, robert, "truth be told." i'm running with that. >> i like the term irrational exuberance. replaces a earlier term, speculative orgy. that is little overstated. it is not an orgy. when you live through a boom, it doesn't feel like anything really special. it doesn't fee

sebastian mallaby recalled the career of alan greenspan, and george borjas on the impact of immigrationhe u.s. economy. in the coming weeks, harvard business school professor eugene soltis will explore the motivations of white collar criminals. jason brennan will discuss the flaws in democratic system. also coming up, johns hopkins professor ellen -- [inaudible] will report on industrial meat production. and george mitchell explores the potential for peace between israel and palestine. >> while i was in the region, i met many times separately with prime minister netanyahu and with president abbas, and then i and secretary clinton were the only two persons present when the two of them met on four or occasions in september of 2010. and i argued the following to each. my argument to prime minister netanyahu was that israel is now in a position of unparallel strength politically, economically, militarily. this is a good time to get involved in negotiations and be prepared to make the kinds of concessions that incontraceptive evident my are -- inevitably are required to reach an agreement be

if i think it's expensive -- alan greenspan thought it was expensive at 6,000 when he said irrationals later it was 8,000. i think my skepticism is very much warranted. regardless of the short-term market actions. i think the markets have been pricing in all of the benefits of a lot of the trump proposals without the consequences, ignoring most of the potential consequences. this is probably a song i'll sing for a while and did in 1999 as well. i was the old curmudgeon they brought on and said this doesn't make sense. >> michael, big meeting between president trump and various tech leaders today. what do you think of the tech sector? it has started to take part in the rally more eventually. the rally has broadened, tech is playing catch-up. what is your view of the tech sector? >> i like the tech sector. i continue -- i always liked it i like the innovation and productivity it creates. productivity is something we need economically now. kind of desperately we've been lacking increases in productivity for years. the wild card in the discussions this morning are what you all were talkin

alan greenspan says u.s. growth faces headwinds in an interview with bloomberg. >> a necessary condition for economic growth is output per hour grows at a rate probably close to 2%. .5%, meaningnder we are essentially for the last five years have been growing scarcely at all with respect to output per hour. once you have the output per hour forecast and you know the total level of the population with the working horse, you just multiply one-times the other, the hours and the productivity, and you will get with the gdp is going to look like. little variations here and there, but that is fundamental. if you do not get output per hour growth, you will not get the type of gdp growth, which the people are talking about. fact that change the you have this 9% average annual increase in entitlements, which is eating into the domestic which inf the economy, turn is a critical issue, which ha is required to get capital investment goin, and capital investment is the key element in productivity growth. it is a prevalent

they lost -- listen to alan greenspan, who during the height of the euphoria over the economy was calledaint alan, the greatest economist of all time. he testified to c congress explaining the basis for the success of the economy that he was running. he said it was based on growing worker insecurity, growing worker insecururity meaning if workers are beaten down enough and intimidated enough and iff ththere is -- if there organizations, unions are sufficiently destroyed, they cannot ask for higher wages and for decent benefits, that it is good for the economy, create a healthy economy by some measure. we know the measure. well, all of this has happened. the working-class has suffered from it. they had a real need for hope and change. well, they did not get hope and they did not get change. i don't usually agree with sarah palin, but i think -- [laughter] i think she nailed it when she asked at one point, where is all change-yope-y business? it showed very quickly and midterm future elections. this election, a con man came along and is offering hope and change. and they are voting for it.

they asked whether there is a rational exuberance, a reference to allen greenspan who said it might be up too much in 1996. i was waiting for them to say, miss yellen is marka or -- they didn't go there. yellen didn't take the bait. not the first time, second time or third time. finally she gave in and gave us the comment about things being murky under trump. >> i think the real takeaway is simple. we had the big, bad eventme. all the rate hike did was ratify what we already knew which is that it was time to raise rates because the economy is better. the more important question to me is whether the trump rally will now take a breather. we expected a rate hike. we ran up into a rate hike. we got a rate hike. now what do we do? earlier this week i suggested we rally and rallied and rallied. since then the trump rally has been on the back of the president-elect's multitude of pro-business cabinet picks. but remember what i said about feeding the beast last night? unlike trump, yellen is no beast-feeder. she is not trying to stimulate the economy. she doesn't want it to get out of hand. tr

i couldn't help think there are places in the book, alan greenspan is on the hill and -- on solyndra, the solar company the grabbed headlines and failed. if big oil is behind that given their animosity towards renewables and the subsidies renewables require. have you seen evidence of that? >> making it alone. >> host: not a bad loan but fanning the flames of criticism in the long run. >> guest: the american petroleum institute in washington is a spun up communication machine seizes every opportunity and political allies do the same thing. i think the underlying question about alternatives in exxon mobil is they are a corporation that can pursue whatever business strategy they want. the question is as a country do we want to create subsidies and incentives for a shift to alternatives that endeded up what solyndra provided and why would we? we are talking about how everybody shares an interest in the lowest-cost energy possible consistent with a sustainable environment. that is the dilemma. you want the lowest-cost energy but you want to achieve your environmental goals. we may not defi

greenspan said has been growing at .5% over the last five years. why?ooking at the data from the bureau of labor's, i chose that people, skills, stuff, and howucture, oil rigs this all gets used. people, stuff and how it gets used. this is been the part that gets week. we haven't been investing. it is actually declined in last year for the first time an old over 50 years. and that means for a company , 50 computers with 100 people and 48 computers. fewer things in place for a unit of labor. ofthe key for the future growth in the united states is to see investments rise in stuff and for those to be productive assets. and for the people to use their skills to make those things produce things. capitalism is critical. where does that money come from? we have been leveraging up. where do you get the money to invest in capital? tony: this is where the optimism is in the stock market. that the u.s. government will spend money directly on them for structure but hopefully good spending. act, 48 billion dollars of spending went towards the structures and him for

when alan greenspan was head of the fed, there was some talk that the business cycle had been repealedf a recession. that turned out not to be the case. since world war ii, as i said before, we have had recessions on average every seven years, but we have gone as long as nine and half years. i think it might be down the road a little bit because there's more confidence in the market. justified or not, there is no doubt that we're not likely to have a recession in 2017. it has been said that it is the end of whom and best. -- of boom and bust. >> if you're pushing it down the road, at some point the decline could be greater than otherwise would be the case. weht now, i do not think will see anything like 2006, 2007, a gigantic great recession . when we have it come i think it will be a modest recession, but it is not likely to be in 2017. you are likely to see a stimulus out of congress and see tax cuts. david: how do you process all the information as an investor? where are you in your cycle about buying and selling? states, we ared determined to make investments now because we think i

alan greenspan is on the record saying that nowadays he is former concerned about the bond ,arket thaning at things like the term premium, how low yields have gotten despite a little bit of a pullback in the wake of donald trump. it looks like we are on track, unless something has fundamentally changed in terms of the outlook for the economy. fromyou see the vix moving 13 to 12 to 11 this morning. let me go to turkey which i guess is on the abu dhabi watch. we are looking at italy and yet we see turkey unraveling. bring up the chart very quickly. i have never seen this chart. this is vrable-turkish lira. wrubel -- ru ble-turkish lira. there we go down with the wrubel stabilizing against a week turkish lira. is there a zeitgeist that the government is going to have to step in and intervene against turkish lira weakness? tracy: let me set the scene for you. we have seen the lira collapse as your chart basically shows, in the aftermath of that failed coup. political turmoil is alive and well in turkey. what that means is that the spotlight is firmly on the turkish central bank. we have to

washington post recalls the career of former federal reserve alan greenspan. in the coming weeks on afterwards, harvard business school professor eugene will explore the motivation of white-collar criminals. georgetown university philosophy passer will look at the flaws in the democratic system. also coming up, john happ begins environmental professor will report on industrial meat production. this weekend, george mitchell explores the potential for peace between israel and palestine. >> while i was in the region i met many times separately with benjamin not in yahoo and then ion sec. clinton were the only two people present when the two of them met on four occasions in september 2010. i argued the following to each. my argument was that israel is now in a position of unparalleled strength. this is a good time to get involved in negotiations and be prepared to make the kind of concessions that inevitably are required to reach an agreement between two sides so bitterly divided. i made the argument that in 1947, the united nations proposed a partition of the reg

remember the days when you had to interpret fed speak from greenspan and even before that, there was less communication from the fed. so i'm all for information and tranparency, but sometimes i have to wonder if the fed gets a little over its skis, brian, it's communicating so much, it confuses the markets even more? >> i couldn't agree more. that was my whole point. i don't like the idea where 12 people sit around the table and manage the world. if people actually believed that, boy, that leads us down a slippery slope. i actually believe millions of small companies and entrepreneurs, that's what creates growth. it's not janet yellen. she's never written an app. she doesn't frack wells. >> it's the academics tinkering with the economy, thinking they can fix something. we learned this with obama's administration, 90% academics there, they weren't able to fix this economy, nor was the federal reserve, for that matter. maybe having business people in the white house, at least it's a different strategy, right? at least have you people that meet a payroll in their lifetimes. we are waiti

you guys and girls talk about the greenspan? you talk about rates?e you talking about in terms of bubbles and rates? >> you have the dow at all-time highs, earnings are significantly higher than they were and have been growing. u.s. equity we see growing next year. willto argue equities change. we don't think they are in bubble territory yet. when it comes to fed reaction to potential stimulus from a trump residency, and upward treasure with respect to u.s. growth and inflation, that is a pretty positive story. what we have missed the last seven years is growth. -- not allowing growth on the whole. >> there was a lot of concern, simon, about a fixed income bubble. we have seen rates turn around and quickly, but not soaring to levels no one has seen in recent memory. do you think that looks like a bubble burst? or just a turnaround? context is everything. the starting point, if you look at the last three months, yes it looks like a bubble bursting. if you look at the side of the year, we were up 10 basis points above where we began with was -- respect