greenspan put, which investors understood to mean that alan greenspan has put unofficially in place a floor beneath which asset prices will not fall and monetary authority will intervene in bail you out. that's why some people called him mr. bailout. antony mueller said since alan greenspan took office, financial markets in the u.s. have operated under a quasi-official charter that says the central bank will protect major actors from the risk of bankruptcy. you succeed, when you are in high profit, and if you fail, authorities will save you anyway. in the wake of the dot calm boom, there was increasing concern that greenspan and his put, which is an unofficial injecting into the economy "a destructive tendency towards excessively risky investment supported by hopes the fed will help if things go bad." the argument will be rates, what about before the fed? didn't we have crazy ups and downs in the economy before the fed? ok, we did have the great depression. far worse than anything that occurred in the 19th century, but there is a twofold response to this i have a section in meltdown t

bush kept alan greenspan >> it's interesting.he traditional pattern from this administration is bring in someone completely different in terms of the idealogy. deregulate >> that might be material to the fed chair choice >> yellen talked about the importance of keeping the bank regulation >>> we're approaching the top of the hour the steam gettiteam is getting "squawk box. >> we have a lot to talk about we will talk about ken chenault and this big news out of american express jeff son fenenfeld will join us talk about that. we have senator jeff flake from arizona, and phil lebeau will be hanging out with oscar munoz from united. >> good lineup all the big stories. andrew ross sorkin and "squawk box" at the top of the hour. >>> when we come back a historic day on wall street, not for a good reason. today marks 30 years since the black monday market crash what an learn from that drop when "worldwide exchange" returns she thought it was a fire. it was worse. a sinkhole opened up under our museum. eight priceless corvettes had plunge

greenspan liked discretion. vincent: my guys were greenspan and bernanke.. the biggest unidentified flying object in the taylor rule is the intercept, i.e., what do you think the real interest rate is? john taylor looking at the history of the greenspan fed said, g, a real equilibrium of around 2%? description of the short range. that is the taylor rule, 2% isn't probably the real equilibrium rate now. tom: go back to the taylor rule. here it is over here, to present idea. michelson rowley said this is baloney that neutral real rate is lower. needthe next fed chairman to adjust the prospect down to a weaker american growth? gdp?ker potential god unemployment -- maybe even and odd unemployment rate? nathan: i agree that that god u- maybe even and odd unemployment 2% is no real risk to the economy today. i agree that john taylor recognizes that. i've heard that john taylor refer to 1%. tom: i'm going to plug in 1% to dazzle you with our taylor rule function. we did down to 1% and the blue line over on the top -- guy johnson, help us form our nerd nerddom.ur g

overnight, greenspan lowered interest rates by something like 275 basis points and the futures ralliedints on the open. they didn't know what was happening. bonds, there was a bonds future, that was locked because if it rises above a certain level, there was a lock limit and the one trading in the market would be up about 10 or 11 points. at the time, that was a huge move. statisticalmove, move, the largest outlier as a something happening as compared to what model was in the realm of possibility, or abnormal but within the normal, was the euro-dollar. i remember, the stock market was asomething like, it few variations of of 20. a fewe talked about -- variations above 20. short-term interest rates. that was a big move. it was the next day. euro-dollar future. that was when i realized options, out of money options, were extremely explosive. ♪ ♪ you are watching bloomberg best, i'm mark barton. let's return to a roundup of the week's top stories. busy week for corporate earnings reports, starting with impressive results from netflix. >> it was a blowout corner for the world's largest onl

work withwere coming in premarket communications and jpmorgan down another 50% so cameis on alan greenspanes and turned the market. what did you learn that day that has stuck with you? greedy whento be others are feel for -- fearful and fearful when others are greedy. you have to have the opportunities to buy in opportunities like that. you have to be buying companies that are really good. similarities see andeen portfolio insurance some of the instruments that have become popular today. distinctly when they came into our offices to pitch portfolio insurance and it was new. it was a way for them to protect the downside which exasperated the decline because -- it is a different form. etf's have taken on that form with respectability of leverage. a statistic that says 65% of the capital is indiscriminate selling capital, meaning if the market starts going down, they could exasperate another decline. >> i realized you're not saying the decline is going to happen on such and such a date or what would precipitated. when it comes, what is going to happen? when a a lot of money has --n made in th

what was so fascinating was the hotel that i checked into had alan greenspan and margaret thatcher infor some sort of awards thing -- i don't really remember what it was. the vivid memory i had was trying to call new york from my hotel room that evening to find out more about what was going on and not being able to call out because they had monopolized the switchboard. the federal reserve and british government had monopolized the switchboard. so, it was this odd, bizarre vantage point to be where they were physically the day of the crash. so, it was a frightening week, more frightening than any week in 2008. >> actually, it is not the date of the crash that was the big trading day. it was the next day. overnight, greenspan lowered interest rates by something like 275 basis points, and the futures rallied by 375 basis points on the open. they didn't know what was happening, and they thought he would ease even more. i remember the bonds, there was a bonds future that was locked , because it could rise above a certain level, and it was locked in. you consume the bond, the one trading in

allen greenspan and ben bernanke, they use thed to raise rates at every turn. maria: and the 2.9% growth in the gdp. jeff require was a flat line, then they got resides and it looks like they are in a rising trend again. 2.9. with rate growth around 3%, i think it fed will raise rates along with the program they are advertising. question is what is the economy going to do in response to the rate tightening. the fed wants to do three more next year. but the balance sheet rolloff, there is a cogent argument to be made that at quantity kay tough easing helped the economy and risk assets like the stock market. if you take it capitalization of the s & p 500, and the ecb and the bank of japan and the fed, it's almost a constant. puck make the argument the stock market has been propelled by quantitative easing. if it's taken away, it reduces that support and the fed is letting some of these bonds roll off. we'll see what this double barrel of conditions really does. so far we have seen the relationship between short rates and long rates has compressed from a very high

they have compared that to greenspan. a full swag bag relative to the rest. it will be a big week for the s&p. record after record coming through. we will rehash the jobs data and take a look at what that means for the fed. the wages saving things. we will discuss that with our guest through the program. germany's angela merkel has agreed to an annual cap of 200,000 migrants into her country. policy follow from the recent election. she had previously resisted demands from the more hardline party. the concession of allows her to pursue talks on a coalition government. opec's secretary-general says restrictions are rebalancing the oil market but further steps may be needed next year. expires in term march and there is a growing consensus that extraordinary measures may be needed to ensure prices through 2018. u.s. vice president mike pence has walked out of an nfl game after a number of football players decided to neil during the national anthem. the 49ers are the team of the former collin kaepernick. tweeted thatident i will not attend any event that does not

alan greenspan said the job of the fed chair is an economic forecasting job.e hasn't been a very good forecaster. scarlet: does that matter to president trump? >> loyalty. >> if you look at the first two names we have gotten from the white house, that could have been someone that came out of a jeb bush. randy quarles. he has not been formally nominated. those are sound picks. there is a lot of disarray within the cabinet recently but ,ook at who resigned last week you could have seen that in a run-of-the-mill administration. your point. my view is that maybe some of that is overdone. julia: if you had your choice, who is the best guide to do the job of anybody out there? >> i think it is important, we have seen presidents nominate. [inaudible] calling for janet yellen to stay on as fed chair. don't miss tom keene's interview tomorrow at 6:30 a.m.. we are hoping you would say stanley fischer said it would lead into this tease. 's livevladimir putin from the energy week in moscow, that panel starts live at 6:00 a.m. eastern. don't miss it. this is bloomberg. ♪ j

hiss: evans talked about time under greenspan when he was there.e talked about the change under bernanke and yellen, and very interesting off-camera comments about what goes on. room and in the green you said i've got a rate chart here. 120 day average, near a record. this is the market getting skittish but nervous. yourhave you done to sate inner angst? tailthere is a negative risk. this is a really good chart, i like it. it shows the probability of a negative tail event going up. swan, it's a low probability. , the creeps up to 10%-15% increase exactly what you would expect. ,t's the rhetoric around korea maybe the continuing standoff between saudi arabia and qatar, it may be issues around european bank solvency. there are several things like that which could cause this negative event that is very serious. i'm basically positive, but i see this negative tail risk. the only thing you can do about that is to diversify. anna: we'll talk about the european banking story in the next part of the program. stay with us. manus: coming up, bracing for the

. >> reporter: that was bonds' attorney, attorney peter greenspan. i did speak with him today. he said his client is out and about. now, the video that you just saw lasted about eight minutes. it has people arguing. you see chairs flying, at some points it gs clearly. this was round two for kempton bonds. he was found guilty yesterday after a mistrial was declared this summer. tisha lewis fox5 local news. >> ♪ >> now to the latest on the mass shooting in las vegas that left 58 dead and nearly 500 others hurt. tonight investigators are not any closer to determining a motive for the mass shooting despite the fbi interviewing the gunman's girlfriend marilou danley. but investigators have determined more about stephen paddock's plot. they say paddock may have intended to escape alive after opening fire on that country concert. committing suicide may not have been part of the originl plan. during the rampage police learned paddock shot at a nearby jet fuel tank but it did not explode. he was also spotted gambling for eight hours with a woman who was not his girlfriend the night befo

but the big difference is greenspan that day was actually out of town.ew that there was a little bit of chaos on wall street and he got off the plane on that day and said how did the dow do? and someone said down 532. i think that was the number. that's not so bad, 532. no, mr. chairman, 532! >> the wednesday the week before we fell almost 4%, the next day 2.5%, the day after that 4.6%. were they ready for something big? >> the friday, the first triple-digit loss. neil: that's right, that's right. >> first triple digit move. >> friday was a tip-off. honestly, i do remember so clearly that weekend, and i said something is going to happen. they were horrible that monday. >> storm in london. blackouts, the asian market started to sell-off. australia, spain, the uk. today we have computerized trading. neil: did that accelerate it? >> no. >> i think it was the accelerant. neil: portfolio insurance, we come up with creative ways to avoid something but invariably get it. >> it was portfolio insurance jo explain what that was. >> buying futures and it just kept

on the jobs day, the fed meeting, greenspan will be joining us, and we have the whole derby with the the bank of england meeting is a huge deal. what is governor carney's biggest headache going into the meeting? nejra: it is a big deal, because potentially the rate market is pricing in a hike on thursday and it would be the first one in a decade. you could argue it is a reversal of what they did post-brexit. and what is at stake in terms of what the governor have to face, the bank of england's credibility, that is one thing to focus on. and you have the tug-of-war between the impact of brexit, which they do not know what those are going to be yet. the other question is whether we will get a one and done hike, or if they will do what is a hawkish hike and a signal more down the line and it will be really crucial for sterling. tom: thank you. we appreciate it. let me do the foreign exchange report. i was going to go at the dollar-yen, but i decided to go as cash. mexico, 19.26. and euro, 11631. we hope you have with the children a safe trick-or-treating, everybody out on the streets of

and that is william mcchesney martin he served for the longest time of any chairman including alan greenspan he served as a private in the united states army he acted as a liaison between the soviet union and the united states he started out on wall street at a brokerage firm at the age of thirty one he became president of the new york stock exchange he studied economics at columbia university i'm not trying to bring him back from the grave lindsey don't get me wrong but what i'm trying to say is that he was very well rounded he was extremely experienced and he was a political and i think of the two potential candidates i think that powell is it is much more qualified and that his back career gives him a lot more experience than that of kevin morse who really is purely kind of a finance guy that's that certainly not the case with powell well we know that you like that a ray of a background a deep resume to really bring i want to say wisdom to the fed what about stanley fischer is chair last day coming up october thirteenth again we've come more than a couple of openings here how would you fi

returned that was depth of the chaos that terrible tuesday midday, dow threatened 1,100 mark alan greenspan announced that federal reserve would provide to the markets. cabal came in and lifted market back to where we started, using futures and options to do the heavy lifting. calm restored. found out i would be paid on some positions money dribbled in over the next week some have asked when did i put it back to work to take advantage of the huge discounts. did i take advantage of the breaking stock prices knowing that economy was sound you didn't know economy was sound. markets are supposed to be forecasting machines seemed strong but no confidence it would stay that way there was no what wecall price discovery. couldn't get a market of any size because nobody could figure out what prices should be for great american companies market flat-out failed i remember getting into heated fight over whether the cat tractor stock, karat pillar back then was 50 or 65 with head of major trading desk can't trust any price. had to sit on your hands point out all of this, because i know on anniversary of

if you go back to the irrational exuberance of alan greenspan, he it?t's got to end inwas right, bu. it is tricky, because interest rates will remain well. i would not get carried away. rishaad: caterpillar is one we were looking at. china the guiding light there. >> we know china has been the guiding light for the global economy for the last decade. we are seeing good economic performance out of europe. all of the premarket need earnings to rise. -- of the equity markets need earnings to rise. expectations are low in europe. very low interest rate environment -- there is a lot of money sloshing around the system. we see quantitative tightening coming in. what effect will that have on equities in particular? neil: in the short-term, very little. i would call them glacial interest rate rises from the u.s. the ecb won't tighten next year. i think the headwinds for equities is more about earnings rather than monetary policies. i think in the fixed income markets, next year we get ourselves into a situation where the u.s. market will have to roll over half

quite a few of presidents and governors left when greenspan stepped down.had a whole new team learning the game. we also had quite low inflation at that time. , bill dudley at the new york fed, who worries the fed may have been to benign and moved to slowly and allowed the asset bubble in the u.s. housing market to inflate. as someone who ran around so many different meetings, it is amazing -- i think there were a lot of concerns about complacency, larry and -- mohamed el-erian. who would be the next fed chair? gary coleman was at the group of 30 meeting this morning and he was talking about, we fight the last battle, banks and needing to make sure they are properly balanced. who is the one for you on the short list of candidates? chris: the best for whom? i'm going to say best for the and it for the country, does make sense you want a smooth transition. if it is not yellen, my pick would be powell. i know him, he is incredibly smart and a terrific listener, which i think in a central bank leader is essential. and he does not jump to conclusions. he will th

previously, when we had chairs like volcker and mayor or greenspan, the chair really had a much morense of how their opinions lead the rest of the committee. receiver nikki, yelling. the other members of the committee seemed to be more vocal. they really seem to collaborate much more on what's going on with their policies. we may have a knee-jerk reaction if we have one of these from especially if we have the taylor rule, they assume we will be a very rules-based fed if he comes in. really come if you look at what the formula says now, it would be about a 375 and that really makes investors nervous, which you have to go in and look and see him say change the inflation expectation, change the unemployment noninflationary rate in the number comes down closer to 2.5, which is closer to the neutral rate it to that we are seeing. regardless of who comes in, we may have a knee-jerk reaction because they'll be more hawkish, but the path of the fed will stay pretty much on the same path but it still rates moving higher. cheryl: it's interesting you say that. john taylor could bring in his ow

beginning of september, richard nixon had this young guy who was a vote counter, and his name was allen greenspan. >> in counter.r. >> he send him a memo and says we're going to win 410 electorae votes, humphrey will be luckive he wins a sing state because wallace will take the rest. but aclosed dramatically by september and then lyndon johnson says to nixon, we'red seeing some progress on vietnam. i may institute a bombing halt. now, richard nixon thought he lost the 1960 election because the kennedyed stole it from him, and he had seen johnson in 1966 do an october surprise in the off-year congressional election biz announcing that he was closer to peace in vietnam. so nixon's paranoia kicks in and sees forces lined up against him, ready to steal something from him once again, and he uses this connection, woman named anna shen know, who was very well known in the palaces of asia because her husband, claire chenault, had led the flying tyings in the battle again the japanese in world war ii, and he sends her to the southam series to tell them if they can hold on, richard nixon will be aelectrici

there is liquidity in the bond market will it lead to a selloff albeit in short term >> when alan greenspan said two months ago that the bubble is not in the equity markets, in the bond market but it will impact the equity market, i think that could be the catalyst for the long overdue correction in equities. >> which provides opportunities? >> yes >> i think we're going to let it go there nice to see you there. very interesting conversation. biggest conviction call from christopher is have concerns about the bond market. stay with us catalonia. >> the stock bouncing on spanish stocks despiets investments. hundreds take to the streets to support spanish unity. we'll be live from barcelona on the independence when we return. zar: one of our investors was in his late 50s right in the heart of the financial crisis, and saw his portfolio drop by double digits. it really scared him out of the markets. his advisor ran the numbers and showed that he wouldn't be able to retire until he was 68. the client realized, "i need to get back into the markets- i need to get back on track with my plan." the

the high level of corporate debt in china, the high level of household debt in china and what alan greenspan several years ago would have described as irrational exuberance, overconfidence leading to a minsky moment when asset bubbles pop. it could be in the chinese stock market or in the chinese property market, but commenting that china will do its utmost to make sure that does not happen these comments from him as the outgoing chief are important these are part of an exit interview, as it will were he is seen as a reformer and xi is suggesting a much more active hand of the state in the economy, and in markets. part of his bid to consolidate power and control over china he's considered the most powerful leader china's seen in more than 40 years, some people describe him as a dictator we had a chance to talk to max baucus, the democratic senator from montana, and former u.s. ambassador to china about this situation, where the u.s. under president trump is looking isolationist and china under xi is starting to look like a dictatorship, a situation that nobody in the world really wants, but

now i think, as the chair indicated yesterday, it is more to revise the alan greenspan quote a bit ofing forward because this is more of a moment in which you have to make decisions about increases on a meeting to meeting basis. david: so if you are a member of the fed, and particularly the mofc, which you were recently how do you manage price , stability if you do not have a gps? if you do not have radar you can trust to tell you where inflation is going? >> well inflation is observable. ,that is true. as the chair said yesterday, because monetary policy operates with a lag, you cannot wait for things to totally develop before you react. but i think you can watch to see what is happening with actual inflation, as opposed to just assuming that it is going to be moving three months, six months or nine months in advance. i think what you have seen the last week since the fomc meeting is the predisposition of some of the members of the fomc, it is almost like a default position that each of them has. i think in some respects the most important thing the chair did yesterday was try to exp

coming up tomorrow this time >> i can't wait for that it's been a fascinating week of commentary from greenspan and rwd anke too, sara, so we look foarto fischer >>> the #women boycott twitter is gaining some traction on twitter. julia boorstin is in l.a. watching that. good morning, julia. >> good morning, carl. some people are calling for a boycott of twitter after actress rose mcgowan was partially sus extended for violating its terms. she posted a screen shot she said twitter has suspended me there are powerful forces at work be my voice. twitter telling us, quote, we've been in touch with her team and her account was temporarily locked because one of her tweets included a private phone number which violates our terms of service. the tweet was removed and her account was unlocked we will be clearer about these policies and decisions in the future mcgowan who settled a lawsuit against harvey weinstein has been tweeting in support of women against abuse and calling out men who allegedly abused women or knew about weinstein. twitter shares are actually now up today about 4% on a pivotal resear

. >> also, greenspan was pretty involved in that >> greenspan said we'll make all liquidity availablewhen that came out, the selling stopped. that was midday after the private conference with the heads of all the major firms the problem was you couldn't -- i went in to buy 50,000 shares of caterpillar, and people gave me a market which was 40/70. 40 to the sellers, 70 to the buyers that's how little people knew. people said, when did you start buying stocks again, i said, when the stock market started to function again it couldn't function it is true if you called nasdaq, you couldn't get anyone on the phone. >> there's a big debate about whether there are lessons to be learned. whether the rules-based portfolios can be tied to etfs do you think there is or can do markets just crash sometimes >> portfolio insurance created a false expectation among a lot of the go-go managers that they would be stopped down 5% people didn't understand the power of chicago versus new york back then. i think people should remember that japan was the ascending market they got to 39,000 soon after. the ja

you need someone closer to the volcker and far away from greenspan and bernanke.anus: is your betting on taylor at the moment? be a combination of taylor and powell could bring the right balance between academic strength and hawkishness, as well as market friendliness. manus: that could create the volcker back up. opinion.en to get your moment of truth has come for fun markets. just for bond markets. -- for bond markets. alberto: this has been a bubble recovery. audited of easing has helped --ple make returns quantitative easing has helped people make returns. we don't expect the treasury 4% or 5%, but even a today could cause a lot of losses. we estimate -- [no audio] make money, a little bit of money, 1% every month or two if everything stays quiet. they can lose 30% if there is a return of volatility. anna: alberto, very interesting. a bardo gallo -- alberto gallo stays with us. manus: we are live to the future investments form -- forum in saudi arabia. davos in the desert has been penciled in. ♪ anna: this is "daybreak: europe." 6:30 here in london. yuan.llar

he led with a greenspan, down 23,000, which alan greenspan always posited. is the 23,000 stock market only good for michael regan and the rich of the world? bruce: i think the idea of what we are seeing in the u.s. economy is a turn toward better business behavior, driven partly by a better global backdrop that is altogether helping to boost corporate products -- projects. that is the story that ultimately gets -- how things come up. sitting that we are here with that policy very easy and partly seeing equity markets go up on the back of a world in which markets do not expect the fed to do very much, we still have weak underlying supply-side labor markets. link, his world to the world of potential gdp, can you , as shift to a trump 3% view sustained morning in america 3%, 3.2% gdp? are you willing to make that with the micro data you see? >> no. tom: where are you? >> we think potential growth in the u.s. is about 1.5%. yet where at a point the constraints for the tight labor market, the week potential growth is starting to bind in terms of wage pressures, p

i'll tell you something, alan greenspan looked the worst.d by ronald reagan but served through a couple of presidents, and six months after he was down 28% at least on the dow. >> and just on that screen before what was the average? itit was 0.3, is that correct? liz: yes. >> that's not a major market mover. like we've said before, the way this market is looking for headlines to react to, if we do get a pullback from something like a new fed chair announcement, a 5% pullback is not that big of a deal. so let's not get too panicky over what's happened in the past and what can really happen to this market here. so many things are happening, like you said, this week; tax reform, fed announcements. we still are in the middle of earnings season, and that seems to be adding a lot too. today's the last day of the month, heading into the last two months to of the quarter, end of the year. portfolio managers are really forced to watch and see how this market's going to react the major headline. liz: yeah, i think you're right. especially for friday,

. >> reporter: and that was attorney peter greenspan who represented bonds. i did get a chance to speak with him today. he says his client is out and about. the video that you just saw in totality lasted about eight minutes. you see people cleaning up and also you hear arguing, bonds again was found not guilty in this murder after a mistrial was declared this summer. tisha lewis fox5 local news. >> ♪ >> now to the latest on the las vegas shooting that left 58 dead and nearly 500 others injured. tonight investigators are not any closer to determining a motive for the mass shooting despite the fbi interviewing the gunman's girlfriend marilou danley. they say paddock may have intended to escape ali concert committing suicide may not have been part of the original plan. during the rampage, police learned paddock shot at a nearby jet fuel tank but it did not explode. he was spotted gambling for eight hours with a woman who was not his girlfriend before the shooting. he booked a hotel in august that overlooks a park where the lol lollapalooza festival ws held. >> t

. >> greenspan had the briefcase, see if yellen shows up today at the white house with anything. >> with her collar up or collar down. >> if she's walking -- [ overlapping speakers ] >> i know we got to go, but just remember yellen in jackson hole made very clear about her attitude towards deregulation. and she was very hard on that. and so some people read that speech as saying, mr. president, if you want to give me the job, here are the terms i take it under and that is not very strong changes to the existing dodd/frank legislation. >> this quick. if she's offered the job, is there any chance she would turn it down? >> i think not i think she would take it. >> steve, thanks here's what else is coming up on "halftime report." >>> what's up with the swoosh? nike gets a downgrade at goldman sachs. we'll debate the sneaker giant's stock in today's call of the day. plus, black monday 30 years later. we're breaking down the differences between then and now. plus, firsthand accounts from our experts. and, unusual activity with jon najarian he's tracking the key moves in the options market and

at the end of the day, the distance between three hikes, -- it's notd 2018 as if you're going for greenspanes versus one not that polemic. it doesn't matter the intonation on the head of the fed. >> maybe not>>. as you point out, if we do get that at the end of this year when inflation is subdued, the market will think, that's what -- that means we will have less hikes over the cycle. again, you're right.nobody believes we are going to get an aggressive interest-rate hike. again, another reason not to perhaps get too bullish on the dollar. anna: is it a political reason for him to go to somebody hawkish? on the one hand, it might slow the economy. he's talking about high growth rates. but on the other hand, maybe he's talking to a face of people who are older and have savings and are frustrated. do you see the politics of why you choose a hawkish fed? >> on the margin, yes, you could swing it that way. i think generally speaking, because trump wants to make a success of his trade policy, it's difficult to imagine that he's going to put somebody in there who's going to strengthen the dollar.

the last time we had a cycle, greenspan was raising rates five basis points every meeting.om that. regardless of who is the chair, i don't think we go back to that kind of aggressiveness. scarlet: you mentioned in janet yellen stays, everything you said would argue for janet yellen's because it would not make much of a difference, but for political reasons, the president may want to signal a shift here. using janet yellen is a hawk or a don't -- do you think janet yellen is a hawk or eighta dove? marc: the middle. the fed is the center. the hawks and doves are relative to her. as far as other people can have this job or could have had the job before her. i think because of the economic ,onditions, lower inflation maybe a little bit of a trend, but not taking off. we are not seeing the kind of wage growth many of us thought we would see. because of that, we are stuck the matter who is the chair. a very cautious type of approach . julia: we had comments and hypothesizing whether or not policy would look like if he were the fed chief. do you think there is even a possibility,

for a long time we had the cult of the fed chair in the u.s., from greenspan onward and before then.ery much now we have this world where it seems to be driven by their credo of the fed chair. that is more emphasized where the fed is going to shift away from independence and much more we want to normalize policy even if there is no inflation. they are saying our guidance is more important than data and that makes it more relevant who is on the board. he is describing an ideal world it is not where we are going anytime soon. catalans declare independence, where will markets a? mark: it is not going away at. whether an issue of there will be concessions from this several -- central government. they might go you cannot just declare independence because it is against the constitution. we will accept there is a lot of unrest and upset and we will allow an official referendum perhaps next year on a more normal term. that is a dangerous scenario because that might lead to arrest -- a yes vote. -- he remainstion a big risk. it remains ford traders to know how to trade it. very much indeed. j

really they do it every cycle and then they ease too much alan greenspan said at one point you'll never% again. i don't know if he meant on the up side. he meant on the down side. so the fed always over stimulates and then it takes lag in the data and then they have to over tighten. the ten year stays there in the invert and you shut down credit. you cannot fix credit with credit it's goings to end badly. >> tony, thank you >> thank you guys. >> that's always ominous this is that awful -- it's pretty good. i can't agree more on financials they agree more on record profits. i still think that the materials trade is very interesting. a lot of these guys have run their businesses very different for the last few quarters. i'm talking about integrated miners, steel companies. >> we have citi and jpmorgan, two of your companies reporting this week. >> thursday, i think i mean, i don't like it when they run up into earnings, the bar is higher, but this is not a quarter that's going to be critically important you know, i don't expect a lot -- i don't expect something outside -- vastly outside o

paul and alan greenspan, they were all also reappointed previously with other administrations. >> so change >> but i think that the president wants to pick their own person jay powell is to some extent somebody that is being favored by steve mnuchin and others in the administration. >> you saw the journal today they got some nice charts of global stock market performance. so it is a synchronized move in a lot of the equity markets and i guess you would say it's synchronized in terms of growth as well. how does the u.s. play into the rest of the world growing faster is it we're all doing it at the same time or part of the reason the rest of the world is growing faster is because we're such a large part of the global economy? >> i think the u.s. is an important part, but we know the u.s. sort of got a head start. europe is coming -- >> has it been tail winds from our economy that's helped globally or it all happened at the same time >> there's no question that you had all central banks keeping interest rates down. in japan they were keeping the ten-year jgb at 0% and negative rates in

i am talking out of school a bit, but in greenspan times we talked about the future inflation gauge. not the phillips curve -- low unemployment, high inflation. that model has not worked for years. the future inflation gauge has nailed it in the 1990's, when you have the only time you had a preemptive tightening and easing without a recession, it nailed it. here, a got the upturn and now the downturn. kathleen: could said tightening into this down turning inflation and corporate profits falling, could that be the prescription combo that brings risk of recession? lakshman: sure, not imminently. but if we stayed too long at the party. december is not going to hurt it. we do not have any recessionary vulnerability. if we talk in several months, instead of a slowdown we are talking about recessionary vulnerability and the central banks are still hawkish, there is your classic policy mistake. kathleen: so happy you joined us today. lakshman: no recession. kathleen: thank you for joining us, the ecri co-founder. we're live in beijing with the latest from china's 19th party congress after a

alan greenspan may have done it. we don't know if other fed heads would have taken the same action is it fair to put it on chair yellen >> no, it's not. frankly it's not a single person's decision inside the fed. i think that's why we are pushing for a different direction there. >> shouldn't you be pushing for additional congressional limits on the actions the fed ka take you are arguing the fed acted illegally or conceding that it acted within its congressional mandate. if you're not happy with the actions then the right solution to that, if i'm not mistaken, is additional congressional limitations. >> well, we are working on -- >> anybody could be doing that, as brian is suggesting. >> you are pushing a false narrative that there are only two chiess here. -- choices here. we will be pushing but there is a choice of leadership you can discover how a leader will go during the interview process. my hope is we can go a different way. janet yellen is a charming lady, really enjoyed the interactions i have had with her.

up here is greenspan. summary real emotion around president truman. about central-bank than stephen roach. inventor of morgan stanley research. wonderful work on china. we will get to that. your original thought on where we are now, was this process constructive? stephen: it's hard to characterize such a public discussion of a high-profile position with all these rumors his construction -- is constructive. i'm struck by your reference to g william miller. he had no clue as to what he was doing as a central banker. tom: we were set with mr. powell. stephen: i don't think we do. the lesson from g william miller was i think the shortest live fed chairman in history, you need somebody with a grounding andarkets, economic theory, the interplay between central banking and real-time assessment of the problem. tom: right now the gaming is powell with john taylor as vice-chairman. can be get away with a g william miller business type irks and as chairman knowing that we got a fourth standard deviation event. does that the rework? the fed is a stephen: deep ins