until the bubble burst in two thousand and seven unleashing a global financial crisis greenspan wasn't around anymore it was his successor ben bernanke who had to do the damage control but he kept monetary policy loose the u.s. economy had gotten used to extremely low interest rates a rapid reversal would have conscious shocks to the system but it was business as usual under his successor janet yellen at least at first now she's open the door to gradual rate increases amid stable growth in the us. federal reserve stronger intervention in the economy stands in contrast to the policies of the european central bank which has favored a lighter touch and focuses on inflation the fed reacts to developments in the job market yemen's term ends in february. jerome powell is the man tipped to replace or the former investment banker is a republican and already part of the fed's governing board markets looked ready to welcome such a choice his nomination would signal continuity theoretically stanford university economist john taylor remains a candidate but his chances are slim analysts caution tha

by credit until the bubble burst in two thousand and seven unleashing a global financial crisis greenspan wasn't around anymore it was his successor ben bernanke who had to do the damage control. but he kept monetary policy loose the u.s. economy had gotten used to extremely low interest rates a rapid reversal would have caused shocks to the system. it was business as usual under his successor janet yellen at least at first now she's opened the door to gradual rate increases amid stable growth in the us the federal reserve stronger intervention in the economy stands in contrast to the policies of the european central bank which has favored a lighter touch and focuses on inflation the fed reacts to developments in the job market ellen's term ends in february and this man may replace or jerome powell the former investment banker is a republican and already part of the fed's governing board markets look ready to welcome such a choice his nomination would signal continuity another possible choice of fed chair could be stanford university economist john taylor but his chances are considered sl

until the bubble burst in two thousand and seven unleashing a global financial crisis greenspan wasn't around anymore it was his successor ben bernanke who had to do the damage control but he kept monetary policy loose the u.s. economy had gotten used to extremely low interest rates a rapid reversal would have const shocks to the system but it was business as usual under his successor janet yellen at least at first now she's opened the door to gradual rate increases amid stable growth in the us. federal reserve stronger intervention in the economy stands in contrast to the policies of the european central bank which has favored of lighter touch and focuses on inflation the fed reacts to developments in the job market yemen's term ends in february. jerome powell is the man tipped to replace her the former investment banker is a republican and already part of the fed's governing board markets look ready to welcome such a choice he's nomination would signal continuity theoretically stanford university economist john taylor remains a candidate but his chances are slim analysts caution that

greenspan was hesitant about the markets.nanke and yellen inherited a mess and have been cleaning it up. a lot of the mess seems to be cleaned up. we're looking at the economy that is at full employment. there are 6 million people unemployed, but there are 6 million jobs out there. at an think he is looking economy where he is looking to raise interest rates. is, that theating weremic club of new york part of the predictable speech, but he went after people still cautious on inflation. you have led that charge with a conservative view that inflation is something we should be vigilant on. should we be vigilant of inflation'eve even as politics -- -- as howell takes over as powell takes over? charles: good afternoon. we're not out of the woods yet. the jury is still out as to if we will have inflation. if we see it picking up, whether it be for tax reform or deregulation, and that little $2.5 trillion of excess reserves that is sitting around doing nothing and the banking system begins to blow out, the fed could find itself in

phil, alan greenspan says kill it right now.s looking at it from a fiscal conservative point of view. nobody else is, it seems. >> no, he really is. and there are a lot of concerns about the deficit and growth. but i can tell you what the market wants, and the traders say pass it now. the entire world realizes our tax system is broken especially when it comes to corporate tax. it has to be fixed. so i really don't -- i'm not concerned about the deficit. i'm concerned about losing businesses and losing economic growth. and now we're hearing about this senate plan. they're going to have seven different brackets? i don't know if they're coming up with tax reform or trying to match the ncaa. liz: sorry to interrupt, but it has just passed 24 yeas, 16 nays. again, we explained this is the house ways and means committee. now that passed bill has to go to the full house for a vote. scott bauer, we know this, that as soon as the senate plan came out, the home builders -- which were getting killed and the likes of lending tree which do a

he provided leadership to chairman greenspan at the fed, then one of our most eclectic fed presidents, gary stern with first-rate academics. i would suggest out of minneapolis, a really unique, regional aspect, minneapolis economics. >> all of the fed bank presidents take on greater importance, because there are fewer people on the board, which brings me to my question. a lot of people have suggested lotyou were a fed staff, of people say the fed staff runs the fed, especially in the absence of a lot of governors with academic and economic credentials. is the staff going to be pushing jay powell around? should we be looking to the head of the monetary policy division for guidance? >> i think it would be a mistake to try to push him around. he is pretty solid and he's been working hard. he's been around financial markets and policies since the 1990's. he was in part hired for the job because he represents continuity. the destiny that he will be his own person. >> how much can he be his own person in the face of 12 regional bank presidents who as votingon the board members, now there's

this has been a luxury from greenspan on. moderation continues for a chairman powell? russ: the underlying forces that have created the great moderation remain in place. chairman powell probably represents continuity with the .ellen bernanke fed mr. powell is inheriting the withdrawal of monetary accommodation, shrinking the balance sheet. whoever is the chair of the fed, it is unclear what impact that have. tom: the amateur reports -- we have a remarkable have. quiet which rosenbergjeff study at black rock. do we have any understanding how ven a-phd chairman acts given vix of 30 or 40? michael: the good news is he is from wall street. he can probably be the calm voice you are looking for when something happens. what policies does he adopt? show thisill throw throughout the day. i went back to powell's economic club of the u.s. speech. can you bring up the powell speech? this is the economic club in new york speech. this is the way the guy talks. my baseline expectation, i would view it as appropriate. staff. to the phd the n

history here according to pew research rates under fed chair is paul volcker over sixteen percent alan greenspan fourteen ben bernanke around thirteen percent yellen eleven jay powell one of the fake. well jay powell is a continuation of janet yellen policies he's probably on balance of a better choice than leaving yellen position because yellen was complacent she didn't act aggressively enough she didn't lose the best she. so she was just holding steady when change was certainly called for in the u.s. monetary policy. or unemployment is below the natural rate so it's only four point four percent inflation is tame and she should have acted she could have saved her job i think power will be a little bit more aggressive a little bit more realistic about what the economy actually needs he's been critical of the failure of the fed to unload its assets off of its balance sheet he's been critical of not raising rates aggressively enough so he is an elitist he does come from wall street he worked in the carlyle investment group. but on balance i would say it's a slightly it's a slight improvement over

you worked for the greenspan that. that was the least transparent.se different federal reserve's? the market was worried of greenspan was carrying his back on the left side are right side, and infer policymaking from that. more transparency, as long as it is choose -- chewed full and honest is helpful for markets. what do you make of the flat curve in the u.s.? it has not been this flat in over a decade. flat, it tendses to mean we are headed for a recession. is it different this time? as ar: i would not take it sign of that. i do not see that in the hard data. the u.s. has been growing more slowly, so there is a question about potential. it is about 2%, i do not think that is particularly high. theould be a reflection of changing trends spoken inflation and growth. we seeing convergence amongst the european economies? we certainly see that they are all growing. there are still big differences. there are convergences among some. we have seen for a number of years of fascinating development in spain that is catching up. 2007.re at the level of they ar

maria: alan greenspan used to say watching where markets guys important.t adds to the backdrop in terms of decision make on interest rates. how do you see the current situation where the market is up $4.5 trillion in value since the election. >> i think they are manageable, number one, u.s. market cap to gdp is 140% now. the last time it was at this level was 1999-2000. we have gone 15 months without a 3% declient u.s. stock market. that basically is unprecedented. the last market you can go to was the japanese market of 88-89 before it went down substantially. i don't think we are japan. by the many worth noting that. march general debt is high. the other thing i look at, what concerns me, trading volumes are lower than they were 10 years ago. part of that may be low volatility. part of it may be impact of regulation including the volcker rule. so i'm not sorry if we do a thorough review of the volcker rule and connect that with is that part of the lack of trade liquidity. what i'm watching for is not so much are valuation levels too high. i'm looking for

history here according to al pew research rates underfed chairs paul volcker over sixteen percent alan greenspan fourteen ben bernanke iran thirteen percent yellen eleven jay powell one of the fake. well jay powell is a continuation of janet yellen policies he's probably on balance of a better choice than leaving yellen position because yellen was complacent she didn't act aggressively enough she didn't unload the bad she. so she was just holding steady when change was certainly called for in the u.s. monetary policy. or unemployment is below the natural rate so it's only four point four percent inflation is tame and she should have acted realistic about what the economy actually needs he's been critical of the failure of the fed to unload its assets off of its balance sheet he's been critical of not raising rates aggressively enough so he is an elitist he does come from wall street he worked in the carlyle investment group. but on balance sheet at the fed back to the gold standard in that he knows the implications of monetary policy kerry policy which many of them have been at ever claimed anyw

the last two decades, we have seen an evolution of the communication strategy of the fed, between greenspannd yellen. the market tends to overreact sometimes the small things they say. we saw a large selloff after the taper tantrum in 2013 when ben bernanke spoken jackson hole. bund markettly the sold after medically after draghi's comments at sentra. i think you medication is more art than science, and that is something that needs a lot of work. jonathan: player the struggling to community so much? henry: i think there are a great number of constituencies looking for different messages. it is a challenging role. you are talking about markets hanging on your every word. i frankly think they are not doing as awful a job as you might say. the yellen fed has done a good job. there are a lot of expectations about what the order of operations would be and they clarified that. that tells us the ecb is probably about a year or two behind the u.s. and that is why we are seeing this growth spurt and we will see two of the largest price insensitive buyers are government bonds walk away slowly from th

greenspan was extremely dominant, and neither bernanke nor yellen were that dominant. right to think, you want to think of them first among equals. it is not equals. who is chair of the fed, matters. be a muchould there stronger vice chair, under a powell said, then we might have seen, somebody you might take control of the way monetary policy is done or thought about? wouldn't say control, but i would say more influential, and that would be entirely up to powell. the vice chair of the fed only has influence and power, to the extent that he or she gets it from the chair of the fed worried it is nasa different actually come in that respect, from the vice president of the united states, who come of the constitution gives basically no power to, but occasionally presidents give things to the vice president, to take care of. scarlet: interesting. it depends on who is at the helm. , the presidentr has a lot of room to reshape, or shape the federal reserve. there are a lot of vacancies for him to fill. fed governors have 14 your terms and they are staggered to ensure that eac

cohn, chairman greenspan, they are in frank for it.s time to turn to washington, a beautiful washington. it doesn't look as good as the sunrise over cato lake. he is the gentleman of east texas. he has spent years trying to save -- the rose festival of tyler, texas. he is a gentleman from the first district of texas. your president -- he took 72% of -- your president is returning to washington. i know he will return to the support of trump supporters like you. anyhe get at the margin other people to support him on tax of form and the other issues at hand? >> i think he can, on tax reform. of course, it seems there are two or three people in the senate and our party that enjoy mr. trump. to i think you will see some people get serious and come on board. cuts, they really will help our economy. i kept pushing mr. trump -- do not let ryan and mcconnell talk you up from 15%. that will bring back manufacturing. i inc. those -- there are those who look down at manufacturing and say we have evolved into a service economy. but any major nation

one can go back to the replacement of miller, greenspan replacing volcker, and bernardi replacing greenspanthelet: what might be trigger for the trigger for that volatility when jay powell is confirmed and takes the reins at the fed. what could he say that would trigger that shift? have: the trigger is you taken this smaller, tightening course at the same time were government fiscal policy is actually being contractionary. we have a government that needs to be funded by christmas, that we haven't even discussed yet. looks at this tax policy, which looks like an entire mishmash that is being run through. i'm not so sure it is going to happen. and so, there is a lot of uncertainty there. so you're tightening, we don't know per se, if you look at , the leveraged loans are historical high, if you look at the debt to gdp, so maybe doesn't take that big of a marginal move to cause a significant increase in risk read that is the whole thing with a risk management. our job is to try to be a little bit in front of it. it doesn't do you any good to say, after the fact, o, it was obvious. go to the as

alan greenspan stops by. deputy chief of staff to president george w. bush karl rove is here and present at six flags chairman jim reid andersen is with us as well. you said that the impact on business of the tax plan we are talking about. take it off right here talking trade in beijing. president trump slamming what he calls the one-sided trade relationship between the u.s. and china in a speech to business leaders in beijing today but was stopped short of xi jinping for the balance. watch. >> trade between china and the united states has not been over the last many, many years a very fair one for us. i don't blame china. who can blame the country for being able to take advantage of another country for the benefit of the citizens. i give china a great credit, but in actuality, i do blame past ministrations. maria: the comments came during the second day in china which included some investment deals between the two countries amass in december $250 billion in deals are pretty incredible. weigh in from as national spokesperson, former spokesperson for the

than it is a capitalism is morse so totally not promote it's a fricken socialist compared to alan greenspan right this desire to play is that come into your view of things at all i mean i've heard different arguments for bitcoin princella leeds as it's like the new enron what we already established that he's a he isn't as well compensated now isn't so he said if there's no central government there's also a little back and so how could how good could it be and now he's facing jail have his wealth confiscation but is part of this socialism this american socialism really kind of go on a tangent here but just go picking your head of it there's a certain american tradition of self-reliance and anarchy if you will going back to thorough you know and going back to the well whitman and you know that's a very american way of thinking and it's not hard core you know it is a it's different form of thinking that we haven't seen represented in the daily discourse anymore does that factor into american socialism at all or your thoughts let me just clarify one thing which is that i am not the post-modern

greenspan was more of an autocrat, but the last two fed chairs have been good at getting people togetherstaying on the policy path. kashkari, the president of the minneapolis fed the tarp program together, but there aren't too many people like that in the race. i know we were on this fed to news and don't want to ignore those tax headlines that just came out, and exclusive to bloomberg about the repatriation taxes at 12%. it had been talked about at 10%. by the white house to bring back hundreds of billions of dollars into the u.s.. how stimulative if this goes through could that be for the economy? with donald trump hoping and predicting that companies will use this money that they propped back to invest in their companies and invest in plant equipment and raise workers wages. skeptics who look at the past when this kind of thing that has been done, companies have bought act their own stocks in many cases. it has been something that helps shareholders and has not trickled through to the whole economy. if this passes and money is be a testd, this will of donald trump's ability to put pre

can a greenspan will be made to re-- an agreement be made to prevent that shut down?king ton from texas joining us now. >> that stun pulled by nancy pelosi and chuck schumer. i like idea that president trump left both seats empty for media to see, he was there, ready to negotiate, we should say, he did negotiate with chuck and nancy this year. >> something to be said for respect of the office, this is our commander in chief. he deserves a place at the table when you talk about these big issues like funding government. all of us have to put the people we serve and freigh great county before politics. i am disappointed they chose to sit there one out. charles: with respect to adding daca legislation. to the debt ceiling. and federal spending? >> well, i think that it is complicated enough, challenging enough to get funding for the government. i don't think we need to make it more complicated by putting daca in there. we need to deal with it. it is important, and the kids that are hereby no fall of their own neat certainty it would be irresponsible not to. i just don't t

this is chart 4905, the inflation target under janet yellen, then ben bernanke over here, and alan greenspannet yellen has done well to engender tightness in the labor market, starting to feed through to wages, but stability has been the missing component. you have expectations that a fed under a new governor might take a different look at inflation and whether the inflation target is relevant or necessary given how all the other metrics and to be doing quite well. that his pretty tough. when we look to the fed compared to other central banks, it's a tool mandate is unique when you compared to the ecb. presents the fed with flexibility. will be the powell chair, he has a border around him and it is difficult to shift people significantly up way from what has been a successful mandate for the past 20-30 years. the one distinction with powell is what he said about his concern about china corporate debt and the potential for disruption and financial stability and portfolio flows. that hopefully provides us with more concern that the fed will look to what the spillover effects for the rest of th

. >> show me any time in modern history with any nation even alan greenspan said last week when you work your virtual full employment into a tax cut to borrow money? you have huge unemployment you don't have a substantial dent you could pump credit but with full employment that has not played out in any nation. and my republican colleagues in acknowledged as much today with the rules that and read something as permanent. in some of the things that people really like and what the chairman said we always come back to fix those. so that means we have just created these extenders in this group i have a lot of respect for has said this bill is not 1.$4 trillion number, it is to point to a trillion because you had of what will happen with the middle class tax cut runs out. so then tell the people the real cost. and again he hasn't done get to it as an much of the just ought to be straight with people of we will later this much on read. >> but in our conference but the process is not completed so how will how did you start to be friends to work together? noone i have seen bob but in the first w

for example, greenspan, when he came in, he was thought to be course,itical, and of his reputation definitely changed. i think that is a legitimate fear for him. he comes in at a time when things could go in a number of different ways. because he is not a phd is that oney guess of the main characteristics of his term as chair is going to be that he is going to be a consensus builder and someone who looks to gather the votes gather the votes around the table and coalesce a decision, but i don't think he is going to be driving the boat as forcefully as bernanke or yellen. direction, itthat becomes more difficult to criticize him as being political or driving the process to help the president. he's going to have the bulk of the committee behind him and supporting his decisions. paul: he doesn't have a phd in economics, and he is a republican nominee. democrat, where are you going to pressure jerome powell? stephen: i suspect democrats are going to want to talk about banking regulation. just as republicans would like to see that lightning up, democrats are afraid they are going to go too far in t

david: it is like alan greenspan's rational exuberance.ncing instructor. good journalism there. said thatrs in china before the shanghai composite burst we had people buying property ahead of the subprime mess that led to the 2008 global financial crisis. are piling in.le could there be a a lot more upside. why not get in now and get out before it all topples over? >> it is a reasonable question. to thee may becoming final stages or the beginning of the final stages of this bubble, that is where we normally get the most violent moves. godoes not mean it can not crazier still. at the start of the year, it would have seemed crazy at 3000, now 10,000, why not 20000 and 30,000? there is no anchor for value here. there is no too far when it is about belief leaf and speculation and you have to rely on anecdotal morning signs. it is very hard to call the turn. why not wait for the turn and see how far it crashes. angie: i see a lot of people on twitter. david: do we have enough data to figure out the price move up of this asset? >> i don't think

. >> greenspan agrees with you.ary cohn was at a symposium and said give us more money, we will give it back to the shareholders. senator johnson, same promise as always. when you have the numbers, when you want to make the case why this is good for the american people, you have time right here. >> he loves the wonder board. he gave it a new name. can obamacare survive without the individual mandate? the man who runs one of the largest health care exchanges tells us next. (♪) it all starts with a wish. the lincoln wish list event is here. sign and drive off in a new lincoln with zero down and a complementary first months payment. you feel better. introducing tommie copper's all new shoulder centric posture shirt. they're biggest breakthrough yet. advanced engineering promotes healthy posture and relief for achy shoulders and back. visit tommiecopper.com to see the entire line of wearable wellness compression. they have you covered from head to toe. go to tommiecopper.com right now and find out how you can save 25% o

of the four rate hikes we've had in the current cycle of normalization and we saw it under alan greenspanng back to powell volcker as well, in the run up to a rate hike, people tend to go long the dollar, anticipating higher dollar after a rate hike. they often tend to go short gold that's a logical thing to do in the ensuing weeks and months, once we had the reality of the hike, they unwind those trades so they sell the dollar and buy gold counter intutively, after a hike gold softens if we get a rate hike in december, that's what will happen >> is that a short-term reaction if we consider a full rate hike cycle and take all of next year into consideration, assuming three hikes, what do you expect to happen with gold in light of that >> i don't think three 25 basis point increases in a year will unsettle gold. we will not get the rate hikes unless we get the inflation they're set to counter, which means if we get rate hikes and inflation, we'll still be in low to negative real interest rates. as somebody once said, zero yield will always be better than negative yield >> that's true georg

alan greenspan, who i have a lot of respect for, today pointed out when you are close to full employmenta tax cut with borrowed money is really not verypolicy, so i have been disappointed. kevin: on the issue of lowering the corporate tax rate, several democrats in the past, senators, have suggested that is something they could get on board with. according to the framework released by the senate republicans, they would delay the implementation until 2019. the lowering of the corporate tax rate from 35% to 20%. could -- is that something you could get on board with? sen. warner: the lowering of the corporate tax rate i am for. you just have to make sure they are paid for. one thing i am concerned, when they talk about offshore money, maybe in taxing, there is no requirement for any of these companies to reinvest in america. there is no requirement for any of these companies to add additional training requirements. are a patriot, maybe some of the companies hurt by trade on to get some of those jobs, instead, what we have heard both publicly and privately is a lot corporations have talked