there are statements by greenspan. there are statements by others in the federal local market committee meetings, and there is even a speech by greenspan in 2004 where he admits they did this. and there is actually even a great article-dirble' leave that out. you can go -- article -- i'll leave that out. you can go through-dirble' mention one quickly. there is a december, 2003 federal market committee meeting. an exchange between tom and david stockton and they specifically say we realize we're holding rates below the equilibrium level and we're going to keep doing that. we think we can get away with that. that's what they did. the paper also cites some additional evidence of this nature. and there are others that have come out after that. there is at least one paper that the richmond said, there's lots of other corroborating evidence, if you will. my fifth and final story is at the end of the -- at the end of that period. where we get to the crisis. the fed policy stance was excessively tight when the crisis hit. i st

kind of advantage during his reign at the fed the so-called greenspan put that markets and then we go down the fed's it is it's a vain and make liquidity available they have now a sponsibility unlike paul volcker who took a much different approach to the job federal reserve chairman michel block hopelessly can stay around for another side we got to go for now thanks for being on cause report. but if you're a vegan that's all stare out for one more fantastic and that's going to do it for this edition of the kaiser report with me max kaiser and stacy herbert like to thank our guest miche should look talked up com if you want to reach us on twitter it's kaiser report and time by. the merck years so too. did.

matt: greenspan? helen: who? matt: greenspan? helen: yeah, greenspan, doing that. so -- now, this is the important part for women. after nixon was elected, i was called by ed luchenbach, who owned a steamship line, and was overting these ships all the world, but he was on the transition team for nixon. and i had known ed before. now, this date he called me, was february the 4th of 1969. "helen, how would you like to be maritime administrator?" i said, that is what i want. he said, you will have to get the labor unions with you. i said, that's not a problem. now, i said that because just the night before, i had had a dinner in new york with all of the labor union leaders. all of the steamship, -- steamship presidents, and all of the shipyard people saying , you guys have got to work together or this will go to hell. so i worked. and jesse calhoun of the marine engineers said he would support me. joe curran, head of the national maritime union, said he would support me. lungrin from the west coast said he would support me. and then i got to paul, the head of the seaf

kind of advantage during his reign at the fed the so-called greenspan put that market should never go down the fed's it is it's a vain and make liquidity available they have now a sponsibility unlike paul volcker who took a much different approach to the job federal reserve chairman michel block hopelessly can stay around for an aside but we got to go for now thanks for being on cars report. let me beg on mats all stare out for one more up fantastic and that's going to do it for this edition of the kaiser report with me max kaiser and stacy herbert like to thank our guests mish should look oh miss talked up if you want to reach us on twitter it's kaiser report and next time. what politicians do something to. put themselves on the line. to get accepted or rejected. so when you want to be president i'm sure. some want to be. the two going to be close to see what the floor three of them or ten people. interested always in the waters of. the city. when you. look at that is to present a book called the but. it's going strong states about seeing. just chill. and that. i like the idea that i

kind of advantage during his reign at the fed the so-called greenspan put that market should never go down the fed should always it's a vain and make liquidity available they have now a sponsibility unlike paul volcker who took a much different approach to the job federal reserve chairman michel block hopelessly can stay around for no side we got to go for now thanks for being on cause report. those are really very gonna mess all stare out for one more up fantastic and that's going to do it for this edition of the kaiser report with maybe next kaiser and stacy herbert like to thank our guest mish should look oh miss talked up if you want to reach us on twitter it's kaiser report and. it's hard to imagine after the war a nazi doctor was still active rich in the nineteen seventies crittle had as the chair of its board a man convicted of mass murder and slavery at auschwitz the german company developed. a drug that was promoted as completely safe even during pregnancy it turned out to have terrible side effects what has happened to my baby is anything. you know she said is just cut short

during his reign at the fed the so-called greenspan put that market should never go down the fed should always intervene and make liquidity available they have no responsibility unlike paul volcker who took a much different approach to the job of federal reserve chairman michel block hopelessly can stay around for another side we got to go for now thanks for being on cause report. well you really very gone national stare out for more and more fantastic and that's going to do it for this edition of the kaiser report with me and stacy herbert like to thank our guest miche should book talked up if you want to reach us on twitter is kaiser report and. mercury showed you. didn't expect their reaction but that's true. praise for his own administration and numerous controversies as u.s. president donald trump delivers his address to the united nations general assembly . sweden's prime minister will quit his position after losing a no confidence vote in parliament it comes after his party's disappointing performance in september's general election. locals in paris say their daily lives have bee

a i documentthe book where experts on the left, the right, theno ests, nobel prize winners, alan greenspan, ben bernanke,ra leading demc and republica economists, send him a letter s'ting, d do this. this will not work. and, ofourse, he does it, and calls in the steel executives. even john kelly, the chief of staff, didn't know there was going to be this meeting. and trump just does it. under the law, he has that authority. some people think he may be stretching it. but now we are in the world of these trade wars which he says he thinks he can win. wow. danger, danger. i mean, the fright that people feel. there's one point where tom bossert, his cybersecurityo chief --ne has talked about this. but he goes to see trump. he's going to go on television on a sunday show and trump says, tell them i'm putting tariffs up to $500 billion on china. now, this was four or five months ago. of course, that's exactly where he's heading. an the president's so so pumped up about this, he says, you know, boy, it's too bad it's a sunday show because if it were monday and the markets were open, you'd tank th

five who backed the savings and loan ripoff by charles keating and pressured alan greenspan not the prosecute not to are regulate the savings and loans you have very clearly obama on the side of the creditors and. the. difference between and where he is today is the creditors normally use political assassination of almost every leading her advocate all the way from. russia brothers in rome to julius caesar who took the populist out protester say well today the creditor classing it as they are and show way and argentina and third row countries it hasn't done there in the united states yet because there really isn't any discussion either in the religious community or on the lefte pressure realizing that the dynamic that's making people poor is primarily financial it's debt it's the financial systems. just dysfunctional relationship. not the old fashion the only industrialists are wearing the workers well of course where persians exploit the workers but now they move to peru. or and workers again it's largely a financial driven austerity program. already so you know jesus a lot of buildout would

that he and alan greenspan had invented a new way of thinking about economics, that there would not beld be managed. and it turns out whether it is the south sea bubble or the tulip craze or the rail disasters or stock in the 18505, the 1929 crash, capitalism has built into it, it has many great things, but buildt into it is, once in a while you get over excitement and you can get a crash and get chaos. yes, that's right, and i think we need to reflect on these anniversaries to reflect and analyse our world. the main question should be, how do we reinforce international cooperation? because we are interconnected but we are just witnessing a disruption of international solidarity at a european level, an american level, with other superpowers, and we are not thinking about the consequences if something goes wrong. thank you for now for that. a final thought on today's programme. if you had two russian friends who had just 48 hours to spend in the uk, what would you put on their must—see list? the tower of london, buckingham palace, perhaps edinburgh's royal mile, oxford or cambridge? the

paul volcker era the federal reserve bank starting with alan greenspan recessions have been outlawed the central banks have printed all the money they need to keep banks afloat even though it destroys the economy destroy social cohesion they think will see quantitative easing for a q.b. for if the bond market sells off a little bit more if the stock market sells off even two or three percent while the fed just step in and start printing money as they have now for twenty five years i do think you'll see a q e four but not at those premiers that you outline a think you'll see a q e four when you have let's say a ten or maybe even twenty percent correction in the stock market and perhaps a very big inverted yield curve and that's both plus those i don't think they'll step in. you know two percent or three percent correction in the stock market although they could i doubt that's where they would make that move i think they would wait until things get there usually actually follow what's happening in the marketplace they really don't lead although they give the atmosphere of the projectio

. >> alan greenspan is writing a book that will be coming out this fall about american capitalism.about the rub with creative destruction, between the creative and the destruction. and if you take -- if you focus too much on the destruction, then you start actually getting in the way of the creativity that has made this country what it is. where do you come down on where america balances these moving forward? >> it's a good question. i think you got out of balance. you don't want an economy that guarantees everybody total economic security. you want to make sure new companies come along with new ideas and new ways of doing things with new products and able to knock out the old company. that involved quite a bit of pain and dislocation. just to give you, you know, an example, yes, you want to give your top employees good compensation and their executives so they have the ability to innovate, to make hard decisions, to take risks. but if you put all the gains from productivity on the top of the ladder, then the workers have no incentive to work hard and be loyal and be engaged in the

greenspan's intuition that one of the big jumps in productivity had change the field.or, loud -- now at harvard law school. 17 years ago today, terrorism can't america. they are marking the occasion at the world trade center in new york. they are bringing up the american flag. they have bagpipers. we are going to hear the national anthem, and then a moment of silence. [drumming] oh say can you see by the dawn's early light what so proudly we hailed last gleamingt's stripes and bright stars fighth the perilous ramparts we watched were so gallantly streaming glarehe rockets' red airbombs bursting in nightroof through the thereur flag was still say does that star-spangled waver yet freethe land of the ♪ the home of the brave [applause] [ringing bell] ♪ >> quick march. music]e david: we have been observing a moment of silence at 8:46 eastern time. planers ago, the first flew into the north tower at the world trade center. this is a ground zero. it will proceed to reading the names of the men and women who died 17 years ago today. i want to turn to emma chandra for a look a

. >> powell ihas been paying a lot of price to alan greenspan. spells out as well anything to have to be slower and behind the curve. is going to be a lot more methodical and he will be less reluctant to get everybody, the dot plots, too aggressively. rishaad: is there any juice in the bond market in the u.s. beyond looking at treasuries? >> at the moment, one of our top inks around the world is not the u.s. but it is in asia. and we are looking at chinese how you. dramatic selloff in chinese property in particular. our spreads are around 650 basis points. when you compare that to u.s., 350, we love the property sector. we all know that the demand a self-serving supply because prices are going up. we think this is a great switching opportunity out of u.s. high-yield and into chinese. in particular, property but. we have never seen the property market this good as we've seen in the last 10 years. rishaad: that's what we're talking about. dave: the china high-yield bond. showing good performance. rishaad: thanks very much, always a pleasure. from u

alan greenspan was given a knighthood by the queen of england because he talked about how fabulous these things were in 2006. nobody wanted to hear it. host: for those that did not have the expertise that you have, what specifically was lehman brothers doing? guest: lehman brothers got into trouble for a bunch of things. one of the things was just investing incredible amounts of money and paying very high prices for commercial real estate. there was a huge commercial real estate bubble. lehman was a little bit involved, other companies more so. when you get a home mortgage, maybe you think the company sits there for 30 years and collects your monthly payment. today, that is not true. they take that mortgage and sell it to an investment bank that takes your mortgage and hundreds of them and puts them in a package. they create a security out of that package. they sell that security to investors. let's say they had 1000 investors in this package. each investor owns 1000th of each of those homes in that package. that is a way for investors to get 1/1000th of your monthly check. in some numbe

charles: greenspan loves to talk about productivity. another critical component of our comi economy, could that be a good component coming forward. >> you cannot have substantial wage increases. to throw a little bit of caution into the discussion. if you look at what the new york fed is discussing with what we already know about q1 and q2, we'll probably end the year with just shy of 3% growth. fingers crossed we can do better than that and bring better wage growth with that. >> we get excited about the quarterly reports. but by the way, if he's right and it's shy of 3%, it's still better than the 2% we thought would be the new normal. and the tariffs, we don't know what impact they will have. >> anything to worry about right now is the federal reserve if we keep pushing up interest rates. charles: i don't know if the fed will ever let the 3%, 4% wage growth happen again. >> the united states is doing very well, but our partners overseas are not. if the dollar continue to the move higher, that's our customers. 30% of revenue in the s &

youcollapse the hedge fund, had an intervention by greenspan to get banks to bail it out.t took the year and a half. when a country or business borrows for their operating purposes in somebody else's currency and their currency gets week, and the other currency strengthens and those trends divide, they are in trouble. you just listed some of the ones who are in trouble. it looks to me as if that list is going to grow. be greedy when others are fearful -- there's lot of fear at the moment. when you look at the economies in asia, is it time to perhaps reward some of the better em's and not just punish the whole lot? david: if the trade war resolve so we don't have this expanding trade war, emerging markets can become the hottest sector in the recovery. they have been beaten down so hard. what do you do until you see a possibility that is real of resolution? bellicosegerent, warnings, the rhetoric so intense, it's very hard to get in front of that. win, it will be great, but it's hard to make that investment that now. about contagion, i want to hop into the bloomberg one more

i am going to go back to the market strategist, alan greenspan.that a good stock market benefits and economy. uproar, is that true that this bull market creates a confidence that feeds on itself? peter: not only does it create confidence and household and , but theconfidence most important channel is household wealth. household wealth to income ratio is at new highs. tom: we have got glenn hubbard coming up later. i want to talk to him about supply-side theory. does it work? .udlow says yes t peter: the congressional budget office has longer-term debt projections. those numbers do look troublesome as you go out the next 10 to 20 years. the baby boom generation is going to put pressure on spending. we're going to have to raise the revenue shared to pay that. we have challenges ahead on that side. peter:, is there a danger that the fed will not be able to hike as much as they want to in the next eight months? peter: it would be a surprise to me given the momentum we see in the economy, the labor market. there are risks on the horizon. should trade c

the greenspan doctrine was neglected in the fed. it was not a sexy place to work.e have importance of behavioral economics. i'm not sure they know how to operationalize it. how do you make it part of policy? it is all good talking about it. if you have the job, how do you spot irrational exuberance from harmless? level you spot the debt from the equity bubble? the heart of this and i go back to mervyn king's speech in is so important is the theory of the central bank getting out front, of being .x-post or ex-ante are we delusional thinking central banks can get out front? we would be delusional to put all our chips on that. sometimes they can do that. greenspan did a good job in spotting the uplift in productivity in the late 1990's. you cannot rely on it. we cannot rely on spotting when the next crisis -- where the next crisis will come from. all we can do is make the system more resilient and that includes being able to cope with failure. be more attention in all of these programs on how make big banks and dealers resolvable so we can resolve them in a crisis. it

greenspan wrote years later that the size of the shock at that stage in our crisis, the size of the shocke fear of business failure to fault across the country was about five times greater than at the beginning of the great depression so it felt -- >> you can watch and you will want to watch the entire special. it is wednesday night at 10:00 p.m. eastern crisis on wall street. >> that was after a number of years. the economy has come a long, long way what risks still remain. joining us is gene frieda at pimco. a lot of us looking back at that time, gene, and saying, man, it was touch and go every single day. there may be new risks out there. do trade and tariffs pose the same kind of risks perhaps as the debt levels a decade ago >> yeah, i think they pose a different kind of risk in some ways they're very much a manifestation of what we went through with the financial crisis with crises, you tend to encounter extreme fear once you get through the crisis, at some point the anger manifests itself you can see that anger playing out through the ballot box in terms of populism in a lot of diff

if you look at the tightening is doing something similar to greenspan.alled a gradual pace. halfway through the cycle, greenspan changed the way he characterized policy. once that happened, that led to a turn in the dollar. the market, down because it was the -- the market -- they did keep going for a few hikes. it was a material signal for the market. that will be quite important for the dollar. francine: you also mentioned marty draghi leaving next year. what we heard angela merkel saying that maybe she was to put someone in the european commission as president. how much does that move the euro? >> i'm am not entirely convinced it is in the germany -- it is in germany's interest. it is a controversial position. if it is led by someone who is hawkish, it has the potential to cause more volatility. the focus to the european commission presidency makes a lot of sense. i think it is very likely you get someone -- we have two front runners out of finland. i'm not convinced you have this huge pop this shift. francine: this is a really terrific service. you h

. >> reporter: aaron greenspan known as the founder of the original facebook alleges the platform is as addictive as tobacco. telling the daily telegraph facebook's addictive qualities may not kelly one as directly as cigarettes, but it is now established the site has led to countless deaths. though these accusations may sound extreme there is evidence to support them. the pew research center has released new survey results that suggest many facebook users share concerns about its addictive properties. and are taking matters into their own hands. among its findings the 42% of facebook users who say they have taken a break from the platform for several weeks or more. in 26 -- 26% have deleted the facebook app from their cell phones entirely. facebook pushing back in a statement says we change new feed -- newsfeed with people's well-being in mind. we will invest in tools and technology to protect our community. this will always be more important than maximizing profits. medical professionals emphasize that young people are especially susceptible to social media addiction and its mental

ifcain said,hn greenspan died, sanders would prop them up to make sure we didn't have a problem.ke wrote an targetshat inflation are about depersonalizing monetary policy, not making it about one individual. any reasonable candidate would be just as good. anna: if it were all about inflation targeting, your point is well made. what about the challenges of navigating brexit? right.are absolutely brexit presents a unique challenge for the u.k. economy. committee.about the there are people at the fx -- fsa and pra. if it is all about one individual, that should not be the point. trying to stay honest about the economic effects of brexit, which are bad. but they are trying not to be political. it is better to talk about one individual negotiating their bank ors, than a committee position. manus: we have a chart here for you, regarding productivity. we're looking at how tough it could be if we had a hard rex it. the -- a hard brexit. in your estimation, how much more damage would be to come if we had to this hard no deal? adam: there is a lot more damage. it is a great chart and under

we felt we were at the enl of collaps edge of collapse greenspan wrote the size of the shock at thatcrisis to wealth, the fear of business failure defaults across the country was about five times greater than at the beginning of the great depression it felt scary. >> andrew ross sorkin also caught up with jamie dimon who told cnbc that a financial crisis would have occurred even if lehman brothers was bailed out. >> whether lehman was bailed out or not, the crisis was going to unfold the leverage was there the repo was there a lot of losses in mortgages money was sloshing around the world. governments made it hard for banks. it was going to unfold anyway, whether they went bankrupt or bailed out and whether they went bankrupt or bald ouiled out, as people realized the severity of the problem, there's something deeply amiss in the system, you still would have had a good month afterwards >> you don't think it exacerbated the crisis >> it might have, but it would happen anyway. >> the next day, aig was being saved. was that the right decision? >> i think the way i kind of look at this i

. >> if you took greenspan for his irration exuberance and assumed he meant we're in the ninth inning- >> you missed three of the best innings ever >> how many people have been scared out of the market >> most people >> you're actually hearing from companies, we have gotten the quarter reports already and then you have this airtime that we weren't hearing anything and now you're at these conferences and they're telling you still really good things. the only thing that wasn't good was the loan growth. that was the caveat. between energy, financials, payments, software, companies are saying really positive things >> look at home depot. it's at 215. we're in refurbishment mode. there's so much idiocy stocks -- i know you're thinking, it's doing badly there are a lot of moves that are inexplicable it's so thin no one is playing. is anyone playing anymore? >> i'm playing i'm in >> contessa brewer is playing big time >> storm >> she is tracking the storm she is in the port of charleston contessa, incredible live shot looks beautiful there, the calm before the storm, i assume >> reporter: fo

. >> after alan greenspan left office, he was interviewed on "60 minutes," he said it out right, if peopleerstand what i'm talking about, i'm not doing my job. trish: what do you think, gary? >> my head would explode every time i would read anything and i would say einstein and stephen hawking couldn't figure what the hell they're talking about. i'm reading paragraph what the heck is this. tell us what you think. do it in layman's terms. so we have better understanding. enough of this stuff. oh he said is last month and month before he said that. i like you got to be kidding me, we're parsing is and that. not a necessity. tell us what you think. tell us where you think it is going. we know you don't have a crystal ball, things could change, go to sleep. trish: i'm all for that. let me turn to another topic because we will i think get some sense how the fed is thinking about tariffs and trade. do you think that -- forgive me. he is there right now. let's listen in. >> good afternoon, everyone. thanks for being here. i am going to start with an overview of how my colleagues and i see the eco

we're doing for the next 18 months it's not a bad situation >> it's like a throw back to the alan greenspanays. we'll see how things are doing we have these forecast cls s whe didn't have the greenspan days, but they're concerned. the worry is that we never had this unemployment rate falling towards 3% they're worried. they're scared they wake up one day and say that's generated inflation. we didn't see that coming. >> more people are working >> the market was fine at 3:00 it was up 100 points then it gave up 100, went down another 100. so initially the market was happy because powell removed accommodative. during the press conference he said that didn't mean that we're done, but -- >> he said what would make you raise rates more quickly unexpected inflation >> he said he didn't expect inflation, but powell said the removal of the word doesn't signal a change in the path towards normalizing monetary policy which includes rates in 2019 another one this year and then -- >> the stuff he says sounds so logical and commonsense, i don't understand why the market reacts like this. >> still it did

in thee to be around 1990's to understand who alan greenspan was. the question and the market will debate this is how much of a maestro is jay powell. he has decided to go for the eighth rate hike in this cycle since 2015. look at the backdrop to which he has done it. these are the financial conditions, stocks, bonds, and money markets. you're looking at financial conditions being the latest and most accommodative since 2007. they are raising rates, but they are doing it into the backdrop of easy money. where is the neutral rate? that is the question. the equity markets managed to resurrect themselves. nejra: a little bit. we are flat on s&p and dow futures. nothing too exciting happening. we have an exciting interview to look forward to. manus: we're going to talk about markets, about the recent changes in this institution. sergio ermotti will join me. 7:00 a.m. 7:15 a.m., i should say. let's get your bloomberg first word news. the u.s. federal reserve has raised interest rates for the third time this year and singled that more hikes will come. jer

rate and risk a recession inflation is accelerating beyond the 2% limit and he talked about alan greenspane 1990s. he went against conventional thinking and he correctly sensed that new economy productivity would keep inflation low. >> does that dovishness cause you to think twice about three interest rate hikes in 2019? >> i think there is decision-making where they move the dots lower we will see how that goes. if that does happen we think risk assets will make a strong bounceback especially in emerging markets. >> how big of a threat is the fed to what it does in what's going on in the markets right now? >> as we are all sort of saying, i think that right now the economy is strong. business sentiment is at an all-time high. household sent the high unemployment at an all-time low. the economy is strong and growing. i think that the fed so far has been and has indicated that it will continue to be accommodating. so although these hikes are the most we have seen in about a decade, they are -- they do seem to be adom dating and the market continues to present opportunities in risk assets to

i fondly remember the lava lamp and the greenspan doll >> oh, man, those were fun day on the old "squawkse indicator, rick i remember you back then as well. >> absolutely. >> thank you, rick >>> still here not going anywhere >>> when we come back, richard spencer on corporate and private sector partnerships to build national security. got amazon at 2,000 for the first time in a couple of weeks and the dow is up 34 supported largely by apple back in a minute alerts -- wouldn't you like one from the market when it might be time to buy or sell? with fidelity's real-time analytics, you'll get clear, actionable alerts about potential investment opportunities in real time. fidelity. open an account today. you might or joints.hing for your heart... but do you take something for your brain. with an ingredient originally discovered in jellyfish, prevagen has been shown in clinical trials to improve short-term memory. prevagen. healthier brain. better life. ♪ ♪ move to the enterprise-grade cloud that's built to handle all your apps. ♪ ♪ the ibm cloud. the cloud for smarter business. >>> got amazon

tom: this is the fed we are seeing now versus what we knew with chairman greenspan, which was my wayate to use the word communal. this is a communal fed. is a european phrase. >> it sounds leftist in orientation. and you are wearing a ferragamo tir. >> my wife supports ferragamo on her own. francine: do you look at the phillips curve or is it broken are dead? >> it's broken. i assume it is dead. francine: when does it come back? >> i think it is gone. he actually puts his trades and track record in the back of his newsletter, so he is the street and yada. >> they beat on me a lot. what wet do we do if observed yesterday. are you fully invested? 100% in cash? what do we do. francine: you should be longer on bonds. tom: lower yields? >> i think rates go lower rather than hire from here. take a look at the futures positions from the cfpc. tom: it is a one-way call on higher rates. >> it is going the other direction, no question about that. francine: what does dollar do from here? probably get stronger, even if the long end of the yield curve goes down. the curve will go inverted. it is

it is exactly the thing that -- between 2003 and 2006, greenspan steadily raised interest rates at everyuntil the interest rate became a dagger pointed at this mass overhang of debt. we see the same thing happening again. we see jerome powell now boxed in by his president, raising rates. this is strengthening the dollar and causing massive volatility in emerging markets. tom: we are thrilled you are both with us. as we drive forward the conversation to get you ready for the autumn and into 2019. for the entirer, hour, kenneth rogoff will join us. different?is a stay with us. this is bloomberg. ♪ taylor: this is "bloomberg surveillance." company luxury goods boost a strong sales in china. the stock market climb has investors in the luxury sector concerned. collett china's tesla -- call it china's tesla one of the. it raised about $1 billion. the sale values the company at about $6.4 billion. singapore's sovereign wealth fund is interested in buying general electric's jet leasing unit. ge if it would consider selling all or part of the aviation services. ge owns almost 2000 aircraft valued

the peak of those two lines is when greenspan told congress there was no bubble.re we now? are we setting ourselves up for another bubble? there was all doom and gloom yesterday. we will get out to 2020 and the world is going to end. drew mattis at metlife says there is validity to trump growth. which is it? steve: i disagree on the world ending in 2020. i think there will be a recession in 2020 because the federal reserve doesn't understand this stuff still and is pushing up interest rates with no regard for the impact it will have on forcing the private ver, but not on the scale of 2007 because we had credit demand seeking at 15% of gdp and it fell to 6% during the crisis. they recovered to 5% to 6% now. it will fall from that level a cause a recession, which the federal reserve won't understand still, but still not as bad as 2007. tom: some people are wondering why is this coming marxist on again? this guys to the left of nancy pelosi. we have got a few elections going on where we have a populist tone. what kind of populism are we seeing in hungry or sweden or

he was patient, he refer today alan greenspan being patient.ll take meeting to meeting, he will not do too much so i don't get any sense to worry, even if it's below 4%, does not see overheating because inflation has not come up yet. as long as inflation is in check around 2%, i think they will be incline to let it run a little bit longer. dagen: matt, thank you so much, coming up president trump taking aim at his own attorney general, what he's saying now about jeff sessions. let's talk about a terrifying commute, the new york city flood rat is going viral. [laughter] jardiance asked: when it comes to managing your type 2 diabetes, what matters to you? step up to the stage here. feeling good about that? let's see- most of you say lower a1c. but only a few of you are thinking about your heart. fact is, even though it helps to manage a1c, type 2 diabetes still increases your risk of a fatal heart attack or stroke. jardiance is the only type 2 diabetes pill with a lifesaving cardiovascular benefit for adults who have type 2 diabetes and heart dis

thing we watch closely every day is the treasury yields in the united states the ten-year, gralan greenspan said that was the one number he watched constantly >> now it's the two-year, two. how late did you work yesterday? >> late. >> you did >> yeah. >> all day, we were in d.c., came back. >> did you come back on the train? >> train acela. >> you went down the night before >> went down the night before. >> where did you stay? >> you know, it's -- >> tmi >> tmi >> can you tell me >> i'll tell you -- it's more about the paparazzi and security issues >> that's what i thought with you, it is. you need more -- >> with me, i go in there, i get out. with you -- >> you wear your sunglasses, has the low. i get it now to the top stories hurricane florence, and jackie deangelis is live in kure beach, north carolina but first we go to cnbc headquarters for the storm's latest track >> hurricane florence has weakened to a category 2 storm, but this is still a high impact storm as it approaches the carolinas. right now radar showing us the far outer convective bands are working their way into the outer b

allen greenspan was right.punch bowl >> are you not worried about the bank sort of classic run situation we had or are you more worried about shadow banks and other places that have begun to finance some of this debt? >> i'm critical of dodd/frank. on the flip side, i look for positiv positives. there's few, but one is the capital levels are up. right? now, the question is are they optimal? as joe knows, there's a certain amount of capital that makes sense. too much is bad for the economy. and in a time of stress, i'll tell you regulatory capital stops the run. >> you always overshoot. you knew it was going to happen. and then when it does happen, we shouldn't be surprised that it happened >> then this becomes the ultimate policy question which is can you mitigate the bubble that's -- or at least make the bubble smaller on the -- and then when it pops, be able to do that >> things were counterproductive where the people that can afford are the big banks that got in trouble in the first place then all the small

alan greenspan was given a knighthood by the queen of england because he talked about how feckless thesehings were in 2006 -- fabulous these things were in 2006. nobody wanted to hear it. host: for those that did not have the expertise you did, what was lehman brothers doing? guest: lehman brothers got into trouble for a bunch of things. one of the things was just investing incredible amounts of high and paying very prices for commercial real estate. there was a huge commercial real estate bubble. lehman was a little bit involved, other companies more so. when you get a home mortgage, maybe you think the company sits there for 30 years and collects your monthly payment. today, that is not true. they take that mortgage and sell bank thatnvestment takes your mortgage and hundreds of them and puts them in a package. they create a security out of that package. they sell that security to investors. let's say they had 1000 investors in this package. owns 1000th of each of those homes in that package. that is a way for investors to 000th of your monthly check. in some number of years you get yo