this is what we do. , the former chairman alan greenspan, sharp questioning for greenspan on america's monetary theory. stay with us through the day on the fed. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> this is "bloomberg surveillance." let's get the bloomberg business flash. split,planning for a having agreed to combine consumer health care businesses in a jv, listed in three years. makes advil and centrum. we will talk about the joint venture with gsk. domestic telecom business had one of the worst first-day declines in japan, falling 14%. softbank stuck to a price rather than a range. and thethe selloff network outage. ge will spin off its second-most profitable business line. it has filed for an ipo of its health care unit. a public filing is likely next spring. the new entity could have an enterprise value of up to $70 billion. that is the bloomberg business flash. nejra: thank you. to recover from its biggest slump since 2016 as slowing global growth is haunting investors. with us is our executive editor for energy and commodities. we outlined the bearish case for oil. what is the bullish case? >>

i say chairman greenspan is off again on again because back in the one nine hundred sixty s. i was a close follower of greenspan because he was very solid gold standard he was a libertarian work wear him down but then when he got into government he changed his ways so he had his has it up and down but he he's always better when he's not involved in government before he got in he was very good and now he's much sounder and says favorable things about about gold and yet to get ahead in this world you had to be an intervention he had to be an economic plan or you had to listen to the planners in the central economic plan as the bankers and all who need this money so make sure the money went to the big guys so yes we're closer to on the same page but not not exactly but he is he wrote some fantastic things about the philosophy that i follow on monetary policy that would keep the government over extending itself and running up these debt you don't have a deficit and debt problem when you're on the gold stand because you can't print golden at restrains the government from making mi

alan greenspan as the chairman of the federal reserve.avid: i want to say that i'm deeply grateful the part -- >> i want to say that i'm deeply grateful to the president for this opportunity. nyu,: you graduate from you have given up your music career, what did you do when you graduated? alan: first of all, i went to the national industrial conference board. for the first time, i went into the business world. i was not all that interested in it here and i found myself -- i was not interested in it, but i found myself fascinated. at 22, i was writing articles for the magazine, and i was getting fascinated. i was getting quoted in "the new york times." david: you openly became a well-known consultant on wall street. on the side, you get to know a very famous writer and -- a very famous writer. what was the appeal? her heroes. i read her books, and i was caught up in the science that you cannot have anything rational about human emotions. i had an argument about uncertainty with iran, -- ann ryand ever since i met her. i said human values ar

greenspan? >> no.president and all other political figures have a right to state their opinions. as you know i was in government for almost 20 years and i don't remember a single instance when a political figure, president or otherwise, argued in favor of the fed raising rates. i had innumerable cases of the opposite. ♪ >> and of the day, what is the fed's outlook for growth? what is the consequence of that outlook for unemployment, what is the consequence of the decline on prices? what the fed is saying in their forecast is that they still think, despite the selloff in the stock market, the slowdown, that the economy will grow and above trend pace next year. >> what would you say to people who may be don't understand what you just said? is there a point where a stock market selloff, that says we better pause? >> absolutely. >> absolutely. if this went on much further for much longer, interchanged the fed's view about the outlook -- the fed is looking at the stock market and financial conditions broadl

alan greenspan to a four-year term as chairman of the federal reserve. just wanted to say that i am deeply grateful to the president for this opportunity to serve my country in one of its most sensitive economic posts. david: so you graduate summa cum laude from nyu, you have given up your music career. what did you do when you graduated? alan: well of all, i went to the , first national industrial conference board. for the first time, i went into the business world. i wasn't really all that interested in it, and found myself fascinated. at a fairly young age, like 22, i was writing articles for the conference board magazine. and i was fascinated. by it. i was getting quoted in the new york times. david: ok. alan: at a very early age. david: ok, so the new york times is quoting you and you are in your 20's. you ultimately became a well-known consultant on wall street. and on the side, you become close to or get to know a very famous writer named ayn rand. and what was the appeal of her to you? alan: what fascinated me was her heroes. and when i read her

up, interviews with former fed officials alan greenspan and bill dudley at the decision came out.of america ceo brian moynihan weighs in with his perspective on the fed and the economy. >> we are more worried about the factors outside the system, stock market price and stuff. >> this is bloomberg. ♪ taylor: welcome back. this week marks the one-year peak bitcoin. 172017 the cryptocurrency climbed to its value of just under $20,000. this tuesday it was trading just over $3500. that is when erik schatzker sat down for an exclusive interview. he runs a cryptocurrency bank galaxy digital. they think the worst of the route is over. for the next foreseeable future we are going to be between 3000 and 6000. if we plunged a 3000 they get worried we could go to 2500 or lower but i think we are close to the end of the move on the downside. in the last few days we have seen big capitulation in price and big spokesman. bign kelly u.s. been a advocate of crypto turned bearish on the lows. those are usually good signs and is close. >> a number of people in the crypto community say the cost of bi

greenspan? >> no. all other political figures have a right to state their opinions. i was in government for almost 20 years and i do not remember a single instance when a political figure, president or otherwise, argued in favor of the fed raising rates. i had a new ruble cases of the opposite. -- innumerable cases of the opposite. >> what is the feds outlook for growth? what is the consequence for out -- unemployment? what is the fed saying in their forecasts that they still think despite the stock market, despite the slowdown in global growth, the economy is going to grow next year. -- next year? >> what would you say to people who do not understand what you said? is there a point where stock markets fell off? >> of course. , foris going on further longer and it changed the fed spew about the outlook. the sense looking at the stock market and financial conditions broadly but they are also looking at economic news. they need a seat payroll and months.nt gain 100,000 we are at -- have a tight liver mar

alan greenspan to a four-year term as chairman of the federal reserve.lan: i just wanted to say that i am deeply grateful to the president for this opportunity to serve my country in one of its most sensitive economic posts. david: so you graduate summa cum laude from nyu, you have given up your music career. what did you do when you graduated? alan: well, first of all, i went to the national industrial conference board. for the first time, i went into the business world. i wasn't really all that interested in it, and found myself fascinated. at a fairly young age, like 22, i was writing articles for the conference board magazine. and i was fascinated by it. i was getting quoted in the new york times. david: ok. alan: at a very early age. david: ok, so the new york times is quoting you and you are in your 20's. you ultimately became a well-known consultant on wall street. and on the side, you become close to or get to know a very famous writer named ayn rand. and what was the appeal of her to you? alan: what fascinated me was her heroes. and when i read

they brought in the thing called the greenspan put right ok so in other words markets were eighty seven crash and greenspan and reagan and the rubin the treasury secretary they got together they started buying treasury s. and p. futures they supported the market for the first time the federal government was what was behind the plunge the plunge protection team and they became activist fed yes they were no longer the paul volcker if that's still true right then we went over to bernanke we had the bernanke and the janet yellen put thirty years of an activist fed not steering or piloting the economy of the economy they are living on me they are the rest yes they are that's fine so who bails out the person who smokes and he doing the bailing out the less i want to thank god i'm on a show like this i could you know it's like a soundbite show i can actually expound on the so ok so we have something called the business cycle right max ok so you talked about one thousand nine hundred seven let's go back to two thousand and two thousand and eight what happens is there's a lot of debt out there a

greenspan always a pleasure to see you.elighted to be here. maria: okay. >> my thoughts are i like -- i like the discussion of soybeans. soybeans was a first commodity or stock i ever speculated in so i have a certain fondness for the crop. maria: wow. so you have a fondness for the crop the soybean crop i like that thank you for that info, what i just heard from peter -- he said look -- china is buying soybean now because they stopped buying it after the tariffs so going back to square one basically where they were in terms of buying soybeans. >> it is a key variable to watch on negotiations that is a very big crop, and as you know, we are had been, the major supplier to the market worldwide. so you can't spend too much time on that particular crop because i think it is telling us a lot about u.s. chinese relations. >> what do you think it says given the fact china is buying a large purchase, in in terms of of soybeans but they are going back to where they were. >> well -- yeah, well i must admit for a while i was concerne

to go back to well he describes it as getting rid of the put that the federal reserve bank under greenspan or bernanke or janet yellen they were constantly bailing out markets by making rates cheaper apparently powell is saying that he's not going to go if you don't talk with that he's not down with that and everybody was admonished him about raising raise the problem is that. stock markets have been selling off we've seen the worst stock market sell off since one thousand thirty one for december. and people were expecting otherwise the opinion stock investors you have now been warning for the last time basically you can't taper a ponzi this headline reads with a record ninety percent of asset class is down for the year and almost half of the s. and p. five hundred index components in a bear markets hopes are first santa claus rally to save what's left of a terrible investment year and while markets may still see sizable rallies the warning signs are still all around us and they send a clear message the ten year bull market will come to an end and the investing in trading climate is changi

i asked alan greenspan if we remain in a bull market.ll in a bull market, an equity bull market. >> it's beginning to fumble. you can see it by reactionaries. it would be very surprising to see it sort of stabilize rather than take off again. >> this is the challenge. we have seen the worst december for stock markets since 1931. he said even if we go higher from here, run for cover. it doesn't get clearer. >> so if you're the average american watching and saying what do i do, what do i do with my 401(k), with my savings in the market, did you talk about the impact on average americans. it's usually a mistake to jump in and sell when you're freaked. >> we talked about the economy in particular. he said look, the economy is slowing here as well. i don't think we want to be so alarmist in a sense. i did talk to him about what further adjustment downwards he thinks the equity market will have. he said i don't know, completely honest. that's the real challenge and the challenge for everybody who has a pension, has money in a pension fund and

former fed chair alan greenspan has a new warning for investors. run for cover. ron paul says he feels like the bubble is about to burst. ron paul, the doctor is your joining us next on "bulls & bears." >> i'm afraid that the predict baldy lama in the market, the bursting of the bubble in the financial market and the subsequent downturn of the economy is very serious because we've never faced anything like this before. ♪ ♪ ♪ this holiday season, families near you need your help. visit redcross.org now to donate. ♪ the greatest wish of all... is one that brings us together. the lincoln wish list event is here. sign and drive off in a new lincoln with $0 down, $0 due at signing, and a complimentary first month's payment. only at your lincoln dealer. and a complimentary first month's payment. comcast business built the nation's largest gig-speed network. then went beyond. beyond chasing down network problems. to knowing when and where there's an issue. beyond network complexity. to a zero-touch, one-box world. optimizing performance and budget. beyond having questio

greenspan's track record hasn't been so great here.d then he filled this massive expansion that led to the financial crisis. i don't know if i'm going to trust the greenspan fed. this has been the most complacent correction i've ever seen. the vi acts at 24 and we've had this kind of selloff joe shows that we are nowhere near capitulation. this is a good time to evaluate the level of risk in your portfolio if you have a short-term time horizon. really protect the downside to take some measures to do that. i love what you said, stuart. these are stocks. this is ownership in companies. companies are going to do well over the long term but it could be financially painful to look at a piece of paper to see what the market is willing to pay for your share of stock, i.e. your share of the company. stuart: at december the 18th. almost to the end of the year. starting in january and the one with the 401(k) will have a chance to reallocate where the money goes. more in stocks, mourn big cap stocks, more in cash. you could make all of those choi

we will hear from former fed chair alan greenspan and the cio of guggenheim, scott minerd.acebook is being sued over the cambridge analytic of data scandal. shares continue to extend the decline on the news. this is bloomberg. ♪ amanda: there is more bad news for facebook. the district of columbia's attorney general filed a lawsuit for granting political data from cambridge analytic up act -- cambridge analytica access to user information. is this the tip of the iceberg? this is one jurisdiction? do we think this could be the beginning? arah: the company is already being scrutinized by irish lawmakers in the eu. they are being scrutinized by lots of attorneys general around the country. if more of them pipe up to bring charges against facebook, it could be a very difficult position for them to be in. sheryl sandberg this year showed up at the meeting of attorneys general to give a talk about facebook and privacy. just a drumbeat of the news about how facebook has been flouting what they promised consumers. it has been a little bit too and -- too little too late the company

meetings between the presidents and the national serve, and the answer is yes, clinton met with greenspanand everybody got part of what they wanted but not all. >> it would be interesting to see if history could serve as a lesson for this administration, whether there could be a gentlemen's agreement, and a lot of questions up in the air when you have the heels being dug in so deeply. as you laid out so well in your book, and so much of what we saw, even from the beginning, gary cohen snatching papers off the president's desk, in his words in the interest of national security. who has reached out to you? who have you reached out to? are you still hearing from people inside this white house, inside this administration? >> it's a governing crisis. your reporting shows that. if they are sitting around making decisions on the president's whim, which is exactly what i show in the book time and time again, and gary cohen, who was the chief executive counsel to trump, and general mattis, they had an alliance, let's keep really bad things from happening. they are both gone now. so we better face

greenspan says the face to helsinki rooster a well known and very strong team. in fact my champions in the last game. literally picked the crease to death leaving them with a crumb of hope the final score was forty zero zero. they don't seem to have a ghost of a chance but only a win will make the biggest dream of getting into the finals come true. but if you don't fight if you. give. it up. there goes the property being more beautiful and poured into the pool hall still. going without them on the soldiers group. told me a syllable to upset me because the moments. before. the good. the more. you know about all of the people who can use the. book of additional gold in the book you don't. need to do. this to. do all. things that show if it's just a book or. this time the brewster's god wrote state. of the valerie's fourteen six. join me every day on the alex i'm unsure when i'll be speaking to a guest of the world of politics sport i'm sure i'll see if. president trump indeed has has he's way of communicating but you have to hand it to him but sometimes it's bette

. >> i want to play what greenspan had to say. >> are we still in a bull market?ction of recent days. it would be very surprising to see it sort of stabilize here and then take off again, but it has happened in the past however at the end of that one, run for cover. >> your point, china's deal could change things and then at the end of it, run for cover. those are sobering words? >> they are. greenspan is a smart guy and he did a good job at the fed, i think he was there over a decade. he's not an oracle, and none of these people at the fed are. i will stick with my prediction, and i put it better than 50/50 odds, as we get close to the 90-day deadline to get some kind of concessions from china, if that happens i think you will see some real jubilation in the stock market. look, i think president trump almost staked his presidency on getting this deal done. it's all right now. it's hard to predict because the ball is in beijing's court. last week we saw what a, you know, bad actor china is on the international scene with the hacking of american companies and they

greenspan was way more worried about inflation than j. powell or janet yellen.agree they shouldn't have hiked this last time. i agree they should stop hiking. he's been really lucky. this has been a really accommodative fed. if we look at the natural rate of interest is, which i will not get into on this show. >> don't say that phrase. >> if stephanie were here she would have reached out and smacked me. this policy is still neutral. it's not still pretty accommodative. >> i love the nerd talk on economic policy. pull back and give me the layman's version. you're watching this. you're like three days ago, christmas eve, i was freaking out. yesterday i was psyched. where should you be feeling as you head into 2019? >> i think that for a long time, for five years we know stocks are overvalued and they will come back down. we know this year there's several things that will cause them to fall at some point by some degree. there's the uncertainty over trade which we just talked about. there's the fed. removing this accommodation it had put in place. it is likely at so

chairman greenspan has been wonderful on this, the things that we missed.reenspan, remember, absolutely nailed the change in productivity around the time of herbert walker bush's tenure. david: do you see that coming through today? some of the deflationary effects, for example, of technology and globalization? tom: no question about it, that is an overarching thing. as john williams of the new york fed has said, it is front and center. the technology in senator lugar's time in indiana was a little different than the huge service sector success of indiana today. david: senator, one of the things in start contrast, we have to remember nafta was negotiated and signed by president george herbert walker bush. now we have a president who says it is the worst deal ever. there was a very different approach to trade. was president bush 41 right? or have times changed so much that he no longer is right? richard: no, he was on the right track. free trade for the united states has always been the strongest policy would have. , want to affirm that very much in absolute

law. 1981, social security was in crisis and senator dole and other folks worked together on the greenspan commission. of a lotill take care of the mail received from people saying, if members of congress aren't covered, how can you understand the problem? members of congress and the social security administrator would be included, and the president, vice president? don't leave anybody out. [laughter] >> i thought you were going to try to enunciate the whole executive branch of government. i would argue -- >> i would argue the universal means universal. i'd like to make clear certain members of congress don't have any advantage. itrey: they almost didn't do . it wasn't until the waning weeks of 1982 that bob dole and pat , behind thet rogue scenes with the gang of seven as they called it, to come to common compromise to get the work done to make the solution, and they were successful, they did it and they presented the social security amendments of 1983 and the president signed it. the last item i will speak about is a clipping from "the wall 1982, journal" from documenting senator dole is

alan greenspan says the economic outlook is being affected by the current state of u.s.> i'm very much concerned about the political system. i was in u.s. government for almost 20 years. i've never seen anything remotely close to what we are observing today. hasink the economic outlook been significantly affected by politics. debra: in an exclusive interview, the ceo of bank of america weight in on the fed's decision. get think it's right to them out of the qe thing. rate structure is a thing they can deal with. i don't think it's that big of an impact. when they stepped up the last purchases, the 10-year was over three. now it's down to 280. that's going on, they are holding the part that they will put off as a smart part of the whole. that in thenk about context of the sides of those markets. debra: the bank of japan note -- made no policy changes at its final meeting of the year. they are maintaining the tenure target at about 10%. tumbling, economists see japan's inflation falling toward zero in the year ahead. in favorte has voted of a stopgap funding bill to head o

remarks with a special guest line up for you, including the former federal reserve chairman, alan greenspanunishing day for u.s. equities yesterday. we saw the s&p 500 close at its lowest since october 2017. retailers particularly hit following the numbers from apple. we might see another down day for europe. we could see a fourth day of losses. manus: certainly those retailers got battered yesterday. let's check in on what's trending across the bloomberg universe. we have our new feed built for twitter, as more vehicles connect to the web cars are becoming a prime target for hackers. nejra: big warning signs lighting up for the u.k. economy. retailers are complaining about a disastrous holiday season. house prices are falling and businesses holding back investment. manus: third phase goes to oil prices, diving below $50 per barrel for the first time since october of 2017. in second place, nothing seems to work in the frantic efforts to stop the stock selloff from getting worse. jinping,tory goes to xi- as he says no one can dictate the pace of china's reform. nejra: he looked back rather t

this goes all the way back to the greenspan years. >> yep >> greenspan put was 1987 and 2000 the termr a right to sell an asset to at a particular price to a counterparty. it can be exercised when asset prices decline and protects the holder from future losses. when greenspan was chairman if a crisis arose, the stock market fell more than 20%, the fed would lower the rate, resulting in a negative real yield and the fed ostensibly would prevent any further deterioration in the markets. >> if you didn't know what a fed put was, to begin with, do you think that helped? >> yeah. why? >> i mean, basically a notion that there's a conceived backstop that the fed will step in and save the markets. >> exactly >> i think that's obvious. but we were instructed to explain it >> i understand. >> there you go. >> you know, people want to know this stuff >> you never know. >> when you say a fed put, you know the fed becomes -- >> well, you never know. >> two, everyone is tight. chinese money growth plummeting. ecb cutting the last of qe and the fed still tightening three, the biggest issuance is hap

alan green stan told me this week -- greenspan told me 2, 2.5%. does it worry you that people are talking about a recession in 2020? >> i think they're wrong. when you take the demographic we're operating in today, it's not like the '80 and '90s, we had this booming demographic, and you you could grow at much higher rates. if we grow in the low 2s, it's fine. by the way, you look at retail sales numbers, they came out pretty good. manufacturing data, pretty good. unemployment, i think we're going to hit 3%. and by the way, i don't think we're going to hit it and it's going to move up, it's going to be -- i don't think there's enough workers for the jobs in this country. pretty powerful stuff. people say we're going to be in a recession, there's so many influences that suggest that's not right for at least '19 and maybe into '20. martha: the last time you talked about putting money in the two-year, the three-year, is that still where you want to be? you're getting 3%. >> in a world where there's a lot of uncertainty, you know, 3 and i'll worry abou

special guests are scheduled, chairman alan greenspan.berg. ♪ >> boeing will not stop showering cash on investors anytime soon. the $20 billion share buyback program. the stock has tripled. will buy endeavor for $8 billion, half of what it expected when it put itself up for sale. they want tod retain a large quantity of its mineral rights. in germany, angela merkel's government, to accommodate refinancing of the bad bank funds set up during the financial crisis. the money will help bankroll germany's biggest budget on record. it is focused on digital infrastructure, families, and defense. francine: thank you so much. pimco is out with its global forecast, and global growth is sinking lower as the end of the u.s. economic moves. here to take us through, one of the authors of the report, joachim fels, pimco. fourndicators you look at an economic slowdown, what is your best call for 2019? joachim: i think the global economy will grow more slowly. i think the key is that we will .ee a resynchronization this was the year of divergence. we had

to go back to well he describes it as getting rid of the put that the federal reserve bank under greenspan or bernanke or janet yellen they were constantly bailing out markets by making rates cheaper apparently powell is saying that he's not going to go if you don't talk with that he's not down with that and everybody was admonished him about raising raise the problem is that stock markets have been selling off we've seen the worst stock market sell off since one thousand thirty one for december. and people were expecting otherwise the.