fed. -- particularly the greenspan fed.nal note after i finished reading every word of the minutes today, who writes the minutes for the fed? when you were at the fed were you the guy who wrote the minutes? vincent: i signed them for about six or seven years and was involved in drafting for a decade and a half before that. the reality is that a group does it and ultimately it is the responsibility of the secretary. every draft is seen by every person who was in the fomc room for those two days. it is a group effort. tom: we have seen a massive division this morning on bloomberg surveillance over glass half-full, half-empty. when you see claims where they are, what does that signal to you about a fully employed america? vincent: the glass is more than half full and the federal reserve will have to take a little bit out. that is a difficult event they are trying to -- that is a difficult pivot they are trying to undertake. listening to your conversation in the last five minutes, it is hard to read the data. it was distorted b

channeling his inner greenspan era of 1994. can you get away with 75 basis points without unseating the world. dani: despite those comments, the equity future picture -- inflation has become enemy number one. as we mentioned in earnings. which brings us to the questions of how much of this is priced in at the moment? manus: absolutely. the bond market literally didn't blink last night. he wants to move expeditiously. i'm jealous they thought of it and not me. there are a lot more on the board or behind the curve, depends who you talk to. yields are down. we can't do it all at once, but we want to get to neutral. 3.5% by the end of the year. our guests in the last hour talked about the sins of exhaustion in the bond market. -- a sense of exhaustion and the bond market. dani: let me show you a son -- the extent of the exhaustion. we have seen the bond -- that is worse than the crisis, does the worst on record. manus: that's a drawdown. as you pointed out, money is flooding in to the etf bonds. the biggest drawdown on record. ther

and, and i'm joined by the secretary, joan of oak, that rebecca greenspan, who coordinates the task team and by the deputy secretary general, presides over the sitting committee. me skins fun. we'll go through the recommendations. but i want to, i like to overarching points made crystal clear news reports figuring increases in poverty and hunger. certainly 6 countries count on russia and ukraine for more than half of them within ports the start of the years. at the same time, russia is a top energy supplier. all prices are up more than 60 percent over the past year. excellent. i think the prevailing trends, the same goes for natural gas prices which have risen by 50 percent in recent months. and for inflation is rising, purchasing power is it of inc. gross prospects or shrinking and development is being stalled. and in some cases, gains are receiving many developing economies as zoning in depths with bond deals already on the rise since last september and stagnation. the so called stagflation . the report also shows that there is a direct correlation between rising foot prices and social

. >> i think the markets -- neil: was that greenspan at the time? >> yes.ott of people obviously criticized him for the financial crisis, too much liquidity in the system caused it, but he got us through a lot of stuff. neil: he most certainly did. '87 crash, that's right. if. >> alan greenspan was a damn good fed chair for most of his tenure, going out on a bad note, obviously. neil: yeah. >> i think powell will go out on a bad note if he doesn't get his hands around that, and that's what you're hearing from ceos in the nicest possible way. neil: so they're telling him -- >> get ahead of this thing. neil: got it. i'm glad you got out ahead of -- >> i was under the knife two weeks ago. and, by the way, till got some aches and pains here and there. neil: you're amazing. >> it was quite a -- [laughter] quite a month. neil: we would sit there more hours, talk about prostates. [laughter] it's a family show, young man. oh, look at the time! thank you, my friend. [laughter] >> cat they ares flowing -- catheters -- [laughter] neil: he's heavily medicated. my next

>> yes, the 1994 cycle you remember during the greenspan days, there was no transparency so he just didt he did. that was a cycle where after a decent run, the market had to sit around and do nothing year and it went up after that. tom: do you go to cash when you do nothing? the giants of fidelity and the others, they went to cash like nine or 10%. >> know, if you are running an equity fund, it's not an allocation fund. there could be rotation so if you are are going to grow in a slow growth environment and falling valuation environment, utilities and staples become part of the mix and went inflation is running hot, energy and maybe financials are in the mix. it depends on where we are in the cycle but generally speaking, when we talk to the broader investors, timing the market is a tough thing to do. you have to get out at the high end get in at the low we saw during the pandemic cycle when the market was down 35% five weeks and roared back how difficult it is to time those exits and entries. have a broad and diversified port folio is probably still the best way to navigate this. you a

alan greenspan said let's look at what people do, not what they say. you can see the white line is what people say is a good time to buy durable goods. it's a terrible time according to the michigan index. look at the blue line, that is the spending they actually do. they spend more even though they say they are down. guy: the u.s. consumer is at the center of the economy. we've seen companies talking about the consumer this week. what you getting from the earnings picture after the lack of health of the consumer? anastasia: the consumer is hanging in there. there is clear deceleration and also the shifting pattern of consumption as well. michael talked about the conditions for durable goods orders deteriorating. you see that. you see that in the numbers today. you see consumers pulling back and buying durable goods and shifting toward services. that's what we saw from amazon earnings as well. you saw this as deceleration. i think consumers are definitely pulling back. it's hard not to feel the pinch when inflation is clearly outpacing the wage growth.

in the united states we are insulated, but alan greenspan once said that the united states cannot long island of prosperity and stability in a world that is struggling. when i think about the situation coupled with the federal reserve potentially hiking rapidly, maybe one in four over the next 16 months, it is significant. dani: nathan sheets speaking there. let's turn to russia and the country's that payment. -- debt payment. it has bought back bonds with rubles. it is getting ready to repay on monday, a date that investors are watching closely. let's get more with bloomberg's rebecca. why is russia offering to buy back its dollar bonds in this specific way? >> ultimately this technique is all about protecting and helping local investors and making sure that local investors do not lose out here and do not get caught up in any delays in payment that could be tied to the sanctions or capital control. there is still a chunk of cash that has not been returned, about 550 million that is still owed, so investors are watching closely what happens on monday to see. the other things we conside

tom: we will talk about arthur burns, greenspan, but it is a walk in the park compared to the way you professor lane walk around the niceties that he and christine lagarde have to deal with. i would assume -- she said they are data dependent -- that the germans will be apoplectic over the duration of 7% inflation. jonathan: their projections will be interesting. he mentioned that given the weaker euro. we wind down qe in q3, and then what? tom: how do you do an x axis with a major war going on? jonathan: it's an expensive way of saying some of this stuff is transitory or not. do they have the luxury of waiting? look at where inflation is and where it was? what have they done with policy? tom: they were transitory. jonathan: futures done 1% on the s&p. this is bloomberg. ♪ lisa: keeping you up-to-date with news from around the world, i'm lisa matteo. president biden has broad support in congress for a $33 billion ukraine aid package. lawmakers could finish work on the measure by may 9, but if democrats insist on attaching coronavirus treatment and vaccine action, it could be delayed. o

but they have a path. 94, a lot of them are growing -- greenspan had higher inflation, they raised rates aggressively, and they did a good job. you only had a recession 10 years after. they got inflation under control and i think that is what they're aiming for. that 1994, raise aggressively, but still have a relatively ok landing. haslinda: has inflation peaked? people are divided on that. gareth: i don't think so. there are too many uncertainties around china, which has kept inflation down with their population tied down. at the same time, also energy. energy and europe and the war. the end doesn't seem to be around the corner, unfortunately. we think there is still more inflation to come. yvonne: so does that mean we have further off to go in terms of yields, and where on the yield curve are you focusing on most now? gareth: good question. the yield curve, we still think terminal rates will be around 4% by june. so that is a long way to go still. 350 basis point hikes coming up in a row and that will be tougher markets, particularly ration sensitive markets. tech and other sensitive m

has fully priced in rate tightening and the reverse of rate tightening, which is why we have the greenspanonundrum. if you go back, i think the analog is more like 1994. then the stock market they underpriced, which creates tightening. that is exactly what we are seeing now. if you get back to 1994, history rhymes come in that famous mark twain phrase. there we saw the market underestimating the degree of rate tightening by 150 basis points. at one point, it overestimated it during the course of the next year. although the forward curve ended up only rising 150 basis points, at one point it rose nearly 300 basis points. i think because the starting point is so extreme, real rates are so low, and inflation expectations are so low, and because to some extent the household sector has delivered and therefore it is less rate sensitive, i think the risk is this cycle is more like the 1990's, particular the 1994 cycle than that to which most people have grown up in. guy: a lot of people are getting 10% drawdown letters. what you say to them about what they should be doing right now? andrew: selec

this was alan greenspan 101.d lecture lecture lecture on the importance of the stock market as an indicator of confidence and folding into the business part of gdp. that is what dudley is alluding to. in an economic textbook, the stock market is chapter 22. nobody gets to it. jonathan: this is a point you have made repeatedly. lisa: bill dudley says so far the fed removal has not had much effect financial conditions. jonathan: futures this morning, down by 1.1%. on the nasdaq 100, down .3% yields higher by another 10 basis points on a 10 year yield 2.65. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> we are moving from covid inflation to conflict inflation. >> i don't see energy prices coming down the quickly. that will be a problem globally. >> higher inflation is eroding confidence. >> the fed has to come out guns blazing declaring they will conquer inflation. >> the fed will ultimately be successful in knocking inflation down. announcer: this is bloomberg surveillance. jonathan: equities continue to struggle. from new york city, goo

it is more so than volker or miller or greenspan. >> gosh yeah we go back to the era as do a couple colleagues where not only did we not know what the fed was doing day-to-day, but back in the '80s the fed wouldn't tell us it changed interest rates until after the fact it is long after something transpired the fed watchers watched the daily interactions and the thursday afternoon money supply and now telling us what they're doing and what they will do. looking at mortgage rates, they move in realtime when we were young every they every based on the 11th district cost of funds, an interest rate that moved monthly so the notion that the fed operates with a lag is archaic and the speed with which the fed is moving may have a pronounced impact on the economy and why the curve is flattening so quickly. >> a point that's definitely worth pondering is we need more workers. >> more people. >> and yes, there's still a number of workers on the sidelines but we are overheating. >> yeah. for all the wrong reasons. not because we used up a supply of workers that is well in excess of the number of available

i was invited -- advised of that i alan greenspan a decade ago, so i am prepared to eat as much pro as you want to feed me. lisa: that wasn't the intent of the question be at my question is, how do you come up with a forecast? how does the fed operate in not only really circumstances, but conflicts that you read about in this book that is coming up. the idea that how does the fed arranges self and is forecast around forecast that have unexpected impact on inflation? stephen: it is a classic risk management exercise. for forecasters, the way to balance risks and assign some probabilities to it, and try to be objective in weaning through it, and remember what your mandate is. your mandate is price stability and full employment. the fed does not have to worry about the labor market at this point, but it may in some point in the future. it is behind the curve on inflation in a way that it has never been before. i look at the real federal funds rate, which are just the benchmark policy rate for inflation, or deeper --. we are deeper in negative territory than any point in history. including

if using about the ones from before 2006, i think greenspan did six in a row. the fed will do what they can to get their credibility back. they know the neutral rate, we don't know exactly where it is that, i think the fed knows between 25 and whatever that is is quite a bit, so i think you will see 50 basis points for at least the next two meetings, but then i think they will be inching more carefully because they don't know where it is at, and i still don't believe the fed wants to cause a recession. it is not societally palatable, it is not politically potable. i think they will lean on the too much inflation side, which means the inflation still has room to run. lisa: we have been talking about the sector specific stories, netflix versus the airlines, absolutely on a tear this morning. how much can you lean into stories like the airlines that are very much cyclical given the fact that you are seeing momentum there, while at the same time seeing a recession in the next few years? brent: we talked about this in the past, our like for value and small caps, peo

of people are drawing '94 comparison actually in '94 after a lot of negative sentiment when alan greenspan summer turned out to be good, a big reprieve. >> absolutely. that was a market, you had a great fall and a not great fall, great autumn, better and i want that, but remember, they were 50/50/75 the 75 was in a movie, you're watching and the bad guy gets up one more time. >> they didn't have forward guidance, and they didn't have an inflation problem like this. >> i don't know. i'm reluctant to say this time is different >> if we did get 75, for which bullard has sort of put out there, i don't think it was his base case. he he was asked about it. >> we don't want to sit here and have water dripping. we need it done. okay we need the mortgage rates go to 5.5 and people are having the 27 best and final >> i'm saying, we need people to say i got my lock in i'm not, you know, i got my mortgage so therefore i'm buying a house. that's what people do, get their mortgage to buy a house. you need people to say i'm not getting a mortgage and not buying a house this work from home has created two

declined by almost 2 percentage points after the first hikes in 77. 1 .2 percentage points under greenspan in 2004. the effects take time to slow the labor market and economy the lags help explain why some officials want to move with urgency now, acting before inflation expectations become anchored in the public's mind. now, looking at unemployment, once unemployment starts to rise, it can do so sharply in 1977, up by 5 percentage points 1999, more modest two percentage points you can see in '04 it ended with the financial crisis and a big jump in unemployment the fed often fails to see that inflation has peaked, and it keeps rates up there too high for too long that's a reason for the fed. now at the beginning, but the more cautious how far it goes later in the process >> that is one approach we will see if it bears fruit. steve, thank you >>> my next guest says higher rates are going to cramp business and consumer spending and investors need to adjust accordingly. joining me the senior portfolio manager at american century investments. are you talking growth slowdown? i don't want to use

the celebrity of greenspan was the first problem. charles: the maestro. >> the maestro.eserve chairman to be a celebrity, a household name? the role of economy in financial markets is too big. bring them down then no one cares what these people say. charles: as far assed fed is concerned, a two-pronged question, what do you want them to do, what do you expect them to do? >> those are definitely different things. i know everyone thinks they will tighten, tighten put us into recession. i'm one of only people, i don't know if danielle is with me. i think they will blink, chicken out. i think because the market thinks they will get a certain way, then they will stop. i think it will be credit spreads getting too wide, the dollar getting too strong. do people think the 10-year will go to 4% around dollar will not rally so hard it crushes multinags? it is just not going to happen. charles: right. >> what i want them to do is quit being the arbiter of the business cycle, okay? i don't believe the fed has been primary creation of this inflation. i never have. charles: sure. >> i

alan greenspan was worried about the financials, wanted them to make easier money. that's what's going to happen again. why aren't people focused on that because they were in diapers or feet pajamas or something. the bottom line, if we get the financials going here, the health cares, more retailers, even if we lose the trillionaire stocks, which would be sad, we'll have a much healthier bull market than we have had in many years past i need to go to david in new york david? >> caller: thank you, jim, boo-yah. >> boo-yah. >> caller: thanks for taking my call. >> of course. >> caller: a fan of your show and i appreciate all you do for us. >> thank you you should join the club, man. we did some kind of real teaching session today like you never seen in your whole life. what's up? >> caller: fantastic i'd like to get your perspective on starbucks i'm a significant investor the stock has come under a lot of pressure here, down over 25% year to date and there is quite a few moving pieces here heading up into the earnings call plus 27. i really like the brand and the produ

when greenspan raised 300 basis points in 12 months, economy slowed, we had the soft landing, we were 1995. danielle made point about debt. that is exactly right. the odds of a soft landing are very, very low. charles: the other thing that powell said that seemed to unnerve folks when he talked about the labor market being unsustainably hot. we heard a couple fed officials use the term, inflation unmoored. we want to make sure it is not unmoored. is it too late? >> unmoore something basically killing demand. monetary policy cannot work with supply. what i differ with economists, labor market is not tight but broken. labor force participation below the previous peak. population below the previous peak. if the trump economy continued and ran the same type of job growth from 17 to 19. that means employment shortfall would be 6 million below where we were if we continued that glide path. charles: right. >> i don't think the labor market is that hot, actually. charles: danielle, has the unmooring of the inflation already occurred? it sounded like when i keep hearing fed officials say it, i

politics, the changes regarding race, class, and sexuality and the yin and yang of oprah and alan greenspan. this evening will include an audience q&a so please use the q&a button at the bottom of your screen if you would like to ask a question as well as if someone asks a question you would like to know the answer to, uptick that question. a link to buy "the '90s" will be shared a couple of times tonight. we currently have over 100 actual signed copies, you can see right here. so order yours while supplies last. thanks so much, chuck, for joining us, we're excited to have you. >> this is the beginning? okay. well, you know, this is normally the part in the event where i would say like, boy, it's great to be here. but, you know, it's really not great to be here because i'm not there. i am literally here, like out behind my house. this book could have come out last fall, probably, we probably could have pushed it and had it come out in the fall but we thought, well, if we wait until february, everything about the pandemic will be over and we will all be back to life. it sure seemed that way

the changes regarding release and class and sexuality, and the young and young of oprah and alan greenspan. so this evening's event will include audience q&a. so please use the q&a button at the bottom of your screen if you'd like to ask a question. as well as someone has talked a question you would also like to know the answer to, please up for that particular question by stepping clicking the thumbs up at. and lastly, support chuck and posed by purchasing a cop audio of his book for most. and this link to buy the 90s will be posted. since shaq has dropped by the so we have an actual hundred signed copies. so order yours while supplies last. all right, thanks so much, chuck, for joining us, and we're excited to have you. >> this is the beginning? okay! well, you know, this is normally the part in the event where i would be, i would say, like, boy, it's great to be here and! you know, is really not great to be here, because i'm not there! i literally hear, like, out behind my house. you know, this book could have come out last fall, probably. it probably could have pushed it and had it com

politics the changes regarding race and class and sexuality and then yin and yang oprah and alan greenspan. so this evening's event will include an audience q&a. so please use the q&a button at the bottom of your screen if you'd like to ask a question as well if someone has typed a question, you're all select to know the answer to please upvote that particular question by clicking the thumbs up button. lastly support chuck and pals by purchasing a copy of his book from us a link to buy the 90s will be shared in the chat a couple of times tonight since chuck price graciously stopped by the store. we currently have over a hundred actual signed copies. see right here. i'm right there. so order yours while supplies last. all right. thanks so much chuck for joining us and we're excited to have you. this is the beginning. okay. well, i you know, this is normally the part in the in the event where i would boy i would say like boy, you know, it's it's great to be here. um, but you know, it's really not great to be here because i'm not there. i am literally here like out behind my house, you know.

starts hiking, sometimes for months it declined by almost two percentage points in '77, 1.2 under greenspan slow the labor market and the county. the lags help explain why some officials want to move with some urgency, acting before inflation expectations become locked in among the public now, once unemployment starts to rise, can do so sharply. in '77 shot up by five percentage points. in '99 just by two in june '04 the great financial crisis, 5.6 percentage points. every cycle is different this time fed rate hikes against a rebounding economy from covid that could both slow the economy, slow to slow, but also provide more supply, lessening inflation pressure one thing that's clear the fed often fails to see that inflation has peaked and it keeps rates too high for too long that's a reason for the fed to act quickly at the beginning, but be cautious how far it goes later in the process guys, back to you. >> see, this is really interesting, historical analysis did you learn anything with regard to how quickly the fed started hiking rates based on the backdrop of inflation and whether that w

job you don't want to have a big monthly payment that is why things like used cars -- friend alan greenspanutious, you see in sentiment indicators don't want to make big ticket purchases right now because then we have monthly payments worried not going to make it if think they lose their job down to road. >> don peebles jump? >> to go back what kevin was saying used car market two weeks ago briefed on a company looking at buying into multicar dealership business, if you look they are projecting demand for usedcars to decline interest rates continue to move and also consumers, uneasy i think that is part of what we're seeing in terms of pricing on used cars, however if again reminds me of late 1970s i think guys to go to happen briefly about politics i think the midterms are going to be very difficult for democrats, and both chambers congress will switch will walk you right into the presidential elections significant issues i think that our economy is going to go into a recession, it cannot stain itself with bad policies, having achilling increase small increases right now impact, but market

. >> a soft landing is a rare occasion greenspan putted -- pulled it off in 1994. the odds are they evening go to a recession and have a selloff piece. like i said, the rare occasion of it. it's even rarer this time around because you have such high inflation and the rapidity of this rate move is so sharp at the same time they said there's been a shrinking on the balance sheet. we know there's a very tight link across the capital. we cannot separate any of them o out. >> peter, when you hear the feds say, okay, we've got the tools to handle inflation, sometimes i can't really connect the dots on what those tools are i understand they're going to raise rates, but the absolute level is going to be really low. i don't see how suddenly that just cures, you know, shortages on all these things that -- the supply demand dynamics causing the inflation. if you go to 3% to 4%, i don't see how that suddenly solves it. and it seems like the things that the fed can orchestrate involves slowing down the economy and trying to force us in to maybe not a recession but slower growth

started hiking it climbed by almost 2% when the feds started hiking in 1977 and even more under greenspan rise and easing the pressure on the economy that raises inflation. sometimes it keeps declining for several months before it turns around, adding urgency to those who want to hike inflation more quickly. when they turn around, that's when the fed starts to win sometimes they start to win ugly it can do so sharply as in 1977, '78, '79 sometimes only modestly. every cycle is different, and this time the fed rate hikes to slow the economy come up against the rebounding activity from covid and also hopefully increasing supply of labor one thing that's clear the fed often fails to see that inflation has peaked and keeps rates too high for too long and that lends support for those on the fed, joe, who want to g a little more slowly. >> steve, so i don't know whether we need things crystalized. the fed, it's a tough job. any of their tools seem to be -- you know, there's a positive and negative to everything that they try do they constantly have to weigh whether the negative is worth the pos