i'm not concerned we'll return to the old days of the greenspan fed. ust kept coming and coming, i think those days are over. once again, many don't trust the fed to do the right thing. i am very concerned in the short term it will make the magnet for around the globe. the lower rate environments you would much rather go by our dollars and take them -- that will keep jacking up the value of the dollar to the point that all of our exporters will be hurt. it is a real and genuine concern, it's one i'm very on the fence about in terms of how i feel confident is the right course of action, a lot of it will determine when the economy gets better. most wealthy people and pension funds, they prefer not to have to buy u.s. dollars and bonds most importantly, i don't want you to think for a second that the fed is raising rates. it can be better at times for some parts of the stock market but i cut my teeth watching. and he would introduce you to some of the greatest minds, in fact at all times if you stay negative even if you thought the fed would never succeed

is this a less independent set on this fed day than the time of greenspan? ot less independent but it is a fed completely sensitive to congress and that is why they have to be very clear that they are focused on the dual mandate and are not delaying rate increases to help emerging market and they have to keep their dual mandate firmly in the crosshairs. brendan: one of the things that we have looked at is the development of the labor market conditions index. that is a clear signal that this is something important enough to innovate around it. the last cycle was not great. guest: we are moving in the right direction that we are not there yet and that is why they don't have policy fed at the neutral rate, instead we are still at zero. even if we are raising rates we still basically have the economy at full throttle. 3.5% is a reasonable estimate. the natural growth rate has slowed as much as economists have predicted. we have a prepared economy still licking its wounds from the financial crisis and i suspect that as we realized we see a lot of those dropouts re

it reminds me a little bit of alan greenspan and what the fed did in the late 80's. >> a student of thebably remembers the greenspan put. is common practice of cutting interest rates at a time when stock markets were perhaps less than stable. shaky markets getting a bolt of liquidity in the united states. that is what some are comparing to what the central bank of china did on saturday, by triple cutting. they cut the benchmark lending rate by 25 basis points, the fourth such cuts since november to stoke some growth in this staggering economy in china. they also cut by 25 basis points the deposit rate and also, by 50 basis points, the reserve requirement at some of china's lenders. whether it is a coincidence or not, to lift up the staggering stock markets, that we will have to see. the shame guy composite index vacillates between positive and negative territory. rishaad: another story we're following for you. japan is mulling a politically dangerous move to cut benefits. coming up next, how the recent change ipos in hong kong and china? you will be hearing from an industry consultant.

of the vocal driven latin american financial crisis or the tequila crisis of 1994 and the greenspan, so the fedry clearly telegraphed that they are going to be a very gradual -- take a very gradual approach to monetary tightening and in doing so, they can avoid that type of cheaper tantrum that impacts sides of the u.s. market into sensitive sectors like housing or international markets. richard: one thing to consider is the greece being -- greece issue. front burner now. it has been back burner back and forth and what ever, but what if the fed did go today? hypothetically, the fed goes today and then friday, greece defaults? now you have systemic risk in the financial industry and you have the central bank for the world, essentially, starting to ratchet up policy. how do you send that message? had you cleared that up with a transparent -- what kind of a dot plot are you going to throw out next? i think it is a very confusing trend to try and guess which dot belongs to whom. it is more confusing than it is clarity. carl: the fed is sensitive to the dot plot. erik: kelly bring a block of again -

the fact is sometime back in the alan greenspan was successful at getting the fed to embrace the pciinflation indicator. i do not -- see the fed changing course in midstream here on the issue of inflation. >> given this economic backdrop mark why do you like large banks? >> well, it is that. very reasonable when compared to most other sectors. they've been very disciplined with regard to costs, and at the same time the earnings growth profile looks very attractive. with c and i loan activity being robust and residential loan activity coming online as we saw some of the new and existing -- all the point to improving conditions for banks to great balance sheets i they enwe've got to leave it there with 9 dow here. mar, good to see you. steve liesman, thanks as's. >>> meantime the biggest names in hospitality descending on new york this week. we find our own simon hobbs with a special guest this morning. >> perhaps it's befitting in the largest lodging gathering around the world, we actually interview one of the rock stars of the industry, as many people within the industry would tell y

fed. gratuitous statements about equity do nothing to achieve the goals of sound financial markets since ready growth. greenspanhe did not get a crystal ball. tony dwyer: he did that in 1996. you had that many meltdown aced in his valuation call. tom keene: are we doing it again? to of course we are. we are on the positive side of a credit bubble. credit is flowing freely. the credit, that segment of growth is terrific. the other side is very bad. we are still on the good side. we have noted this. the answer was 2008, you had an inverted u curve. tom keene: brendan, jump in here. brendan greeley: this is a quote. sound financial markets and economic growth are the feds to goals. that's not true at all. price controls and controlling inflation and employment are the feds mandates. i feel like with this quote is doing is reading into janet yellen a mandate she does not and should not have. tony dwyer: our way of analyzing the market is if you cannot show it in the picture, you are making it up. when i see quotes about what could be or should be, i don't believe them. i look at the history of the marketplace. what

do you really want to go back to alan greenspan we had no idea what the fed's plans were?do not want to be giving speeches but you want to give some indication of where you are headed. to be able to have the dot plot on interest rates which eventually may or may not be followed and repeatedly indicating that the quantity has come to an end and we have assumed that interest rates for going to go up in 2014, we are approaching the end of 2015 without it. those are the points we can all do without and the markets would be better off without such """ guidance. brendan: is there any way to let the markets know we don't know what we are going to do? i feel like markets do not believe the fed. you do know what you are going to do but you are not telling us. komal: i think that if the fed does give any guidance and essentially, you and i are investors in the market and we are allowed to play the game as we see best -- we would have less volatility than with forward guidance. tom: one volatility is part of the game, part is a parlor game of when the federal act. you are still in 20

greenspan decided to go slowly. but it was one at each meeting. this time around, the fedlearly does not want to follow that approach. i think today we may see from the projections that the long-term fed rate has declined a bit in the expectation of fomc members. francine: we are also expecting me mpc meeting for the bank of england. whether you're expecting them to raise interest rates? riccardo: if we follow our u.s. forecast, which is the fed raises rates next year, the bank of england will also move next year. i personally do not see them moving before the fed. as lon asg as there are problems in europe, in terms of the range, i would say the fed anytime from september onwards as possible in my opinion given the current state of play. and that is the bank of england may also move before the end of the year. francine: thank you so much for all of that. riccardo barbieri there. up next, find out which gaming company is not convinced about virtual reality yet. all of that coming up on "the pulse." ♪ francine: welcome back to "the pulse" streaming on your tablet installmen

greenspan did in the u.s. in the 80's and 90's. >> the late 1980's when you assumed the fed governorship, there was a crash he had known over the next 10 years or so for putting a backstop to these crashes and perhaps even inflating bubbles with rate cuts. that is what they are calling it that zhou put. there was mixed signals because they added liquidity to the banking signals and that confused the market a little bit. maybe they were putting off another rate cut because this has been widely anticipated that they would have this rate cut. then they are bringing the with 18.9%. 18 percent fall since june 12 which is near bear market territory. then we had that plunge again and saturday we woke up again and this is what they did. by 25 basisk cut points. a record low. greenspan at one point cut it down to about 1%. have a long way to go here. rrr cut by 50 aces points at some tanks. they are still pretty high and have a long way to go to cut the reserve ratio requirement. that is where we are standing right now. the economy needs some easing. yvonne: where does the market go from here? we talk about greece ove

brendan: alan greenspan said can you spot a bubble -- not only can you, you should. michael: we know that the fed -- it is very hard to spot bubbles. even if you can't spot one it is not clear that raising interest rates is the best way to address it. a legitimate debates, but i think he is coming into that debate in a sort of oblique way. tom: very cool. we will continue our discussion with michael feroli here in a bit. let's get to top headlines with ronni -- with vonnie. vonnie: hsbc ceo stuart gulliver plans to get rid of 50,000 workers, cutting $5 billion a year and costs. 25,000 positions will be cut by selling operations in turkey and brazil, but hsbc will maintain a large presence in the u.s. mr. gulliver: biggest economy, biggest exporter to the world, and actually the world's reserve currency all require us to keep the u.s. presence. it is linked cross-border and is not doing about domestic business. vonnie: since gulliver took over in 2011, he has announced 87,000 job cuts. he has cut operations in 15 countries. greece is offering another plan to unlock bailouts. prime minister alexis

fed tool. they've all done it going back to the '60s, there's documentation this is the one of the things they try to do the problem is it doesn't work that well. when greenspane his irrational exuberance speech, it was 1996 and i dow went up from there. >> the stocks had really good reasons to go up. >> it's a perfect conversation and you hear more about whether the u.s. is the place to be or globally is the place to be. i want to bring in our next guest, kevin kelly, recon capital. cil, under $215 million under management. you make the case, as many do, don't look to the u.s. any more, look overseas. >> we saw this morning that europe was up. off the heels of the euro being up. we have the markets and their currency actually going up. and now we're bantering about who's right, who's wrong about the fed. we know the facts, over in europe ecb, quantitative ease something happening. the interest rates are down, inflation is up. >> it's working. >> if we look at yesterday, at the auto sales, everyone is talking about american auto manufacturers are coming back. the best numbers were german automobile manufacturers, daimler, mercedes benz was up 12.2%. audi was

liz ann: i think the fed has gone to great pains to tell us that they were going to do a closed cycle -- slow cycle this time. we have not had a slow cycle since the greenspandecidedly not the case right now. brendan: we will go back to europe for our twitter question of the day. q we here and now over there will draghi qe your europe? ♪ tom: good morning everyone. a discussion on oil? brendan: leaders from saudi arabia-led opec are currently meeting with the largest oil companies in vienna. the cartel announces its reduction strategy, that is coming up on friday. ryan chilcote is at the meeting and joins us now. ryan: the opec seminar is effectively a two day oil fest. they get the 12 opec member nations together including iran this year, together with some of the biggest oil companies in the world. today i am joined by dudley thank you for finding time. i had to pull you away from a pretty trysting meeting with all the other oil executives. i want to ask you about price. you have been consistently a little gloomy on the outlook for oil price. even today, we heard from the shell ceo that the environment for prices should improve because investment will dri

greenspan adjusted to what was going on in the market. jim: i do not think it is ahead of us over the next 12 months or over the next 24 months. the question is, when the fed, how fast will they go? brendan: is the's -- is the slow of the steps more important? jim: absolutely. tom: the june meeting is june 17. and then july 29. vonnie: the 10 year yield is 2.12. there is no expectation for inflation on the market, is there? jim: one of the things that has been interesting on the markets is that term premium is very low. in fact, it is negative. the way we would do find it is the extra compensation an investor would want to have for going out long-term in yield or it the longer you go out in duration, the more yield you want. right now that is a negative number. people are saying they do not expect the economic rose to be very strong, and they do not expect inflation to rise quickly. they will actually pay or take more risk to buy a longer dated bond, which is a very rare and unique until a time which could correct. it could correct if we get more sustainable data that shows consist see of growth, employment, -- that shows consistency of growth, employment,

greenspan day and the volcker days were depository institutions. now look at the counterparties there are over 100, many market funds and dealers and so on. that's the way that the fed, the modern federal reserve, the modern central bank of the united states will have to deal with a short-term and a yield curve. and those are the key rates to look at, in my opinion. >> very good. richard, always good to see you. thank you for your time, enjoy the rest of your vacation. >> thanks so much. >> thank you so much. vestigal organs. the appendix? i guess it serves a function today. >> i failed anatomy class. >> that's why i love reading fisher's speeches and remarks at the fed. makes interesting analogies. ten minutes to go into the close here. time to watch the markets carefully. we are well off the highs. the question giving what we know has been weakness at this time anyway this year is whether we'll actually stay in the green with the dow up 30 the s&p up 5 and the nasdaq about 12. >> the more interesting move is by the dollar which we'll talk about coming up here in a moment. >>> we'll discuss janet yellen's remarks met the expectation with black rock's head of fixed