greg boutle, humans no words, 5100. what is the ratio that gives you -- get you to a double-digit return. >> we're looking for strong economic growth that will bleed into robust earnings growth. we think valuations can compress a little bit and get to 5100. we think multiples will come at next year which is the average we tend to see in the first year of the fed hike cycle. lisa: do think consumers continue to boom even though income has started to decline off of federal programs? greg: one thing to look at the savings rate. consumers are not just participating in a hot paper market, there is a lot of cash people have around. we think there is a lot of pent-up demand. if we start to see some of the supply chain bottlenecks structure is up next year, we think pent-up demand will drive the economy forward. lisa: you said you expect a 10% total return in the s&p next year, even with this compression. how much is that concentrated in the first half versus the second half of the year? we see a lot of people thinking it will

greg boutle of bnp paribas with spx 5100. amy wu silverman coming up with equities front and center. kailey: i will be interested to see if the equities react to the economic data we get. there isn't a direct connection between what the growth picture looks like and what equities do. those two have been very disjointed for a while now. so if we do get a hotter inflation read, does the equity market actually take that as a good thing or a bad thing? if we get a better print when it comes to gdp growth, for example, does the equity market take it is a good thing? tom: jp morgan's glass half-full as well. i want you to review what you nailed in the last hour, which is the credit market. the credit market has changed, hasn't it? lisa: as benchmark rates go up, so too are the extra yields that investors demand. to me that is really compelling. i am just wondering at what point this leads to a little bit of a jittery backdrop. tom: in the data today, we have the red on the screen on the equity market. yields coming into basis point