almost 400 times the word grexit is mentioned in bloomberg stories. it gives you a sense of what everyone is talking about. joe: i love anything that gives a sense of what people are talking about. alix: i am taking a look at the euro versus the dollar and the wild day we saw. look at this monster reversal. i came in today and said we will have a weaker euro. that did not happen. you saw it totally crater and pop up by the end of the day. part of me was thinking that is just a euro situation. but you could see it in terms of the dollar-yen as well. the yen was stronger against the dollar. what is that about? joe: last monday it looked like greece would get the euro was weakened. today felt like the opposite. you had everything falling apart, and the euro showing strength. the dollar weakening against the yen, greece and puerto rico, maybe people are skeptical about the fed hike. alix: joining us from london is paul mcnamara. onset is the chief u.s. economist for bloomberg. thank you so much for joining us. european leaders say it is down to the greek

let's start with the grexit.arkets feeling a sense of optimism and they have been buying in an optimistic mood. are the investors right to be optimistic? >> we never got that pessimistic. we settled with nothing compared to 2012. there is a sanguine view if greece exits. i have no idea if this is the beginning of the end. whatever happens, greece is set for sluggish growth over the next 2-3 years, given the scale of their debt and the lack of deep structural adjustments in the economy. it is hard to see greece being able to rid itself of the underlying debt problems. anna edwards: they focus in on the soon-to-come deadlines. alan, we talked about how it helps institutions. doesn't matter if they miss payments to the imf? -- does it matter if they miss payments to the imf? higgins: it does not make it a reliable bond market, for sure. anna edwards: rating agencies would not collar to default. it is not a commercial creditor. higgins: you go to the debt and it is with europe. it can be extended and not a technical

to an extent, they are pricing in grexit.eeing at the moment in terms of those futures. let's get you up-to-date with some of the stories that you need to know today. china's benchmark share index is trading in bear market territory as interest rate cuts over the weekend failed to stem the nation's biggest crow -- rout since 1996. declines since its peak on june 12 two more than 20%. tunisia has launched a nationwide manhunt for a compass is of a student who killed at least 34 people at a resort hotel on friday. he acted alone during the attack but had accomplices that supported him before him. his father and three roommates have already been detained. greece has taken drastic action to avert the collapse of its banking system as it moves closer to an exit from the euro. banks have been shut until at least next monday and capital controls have been imposed. customers can only withdraw 60 euros a day from their account while payments and transfers abroad have been banned. the move follows the shock announcement later -- late o

alix: part of the issue with the potential grexit is that the e.c.b.s going to have to go more all in. they will have to prevent peripheral contagion. we did have the annual review over the weekend that warned of creating morenks risk in the market. what do you say to that? they're going to do qe, announced six months ago. draghi is going to say we will loan to any spanish, italian bank in trouble. liquidity is open. they have abided by the rules. greece has not. we are not going to pride -- provide them with liquidity. that is going to stabilize the euro but also peripheral countries and keep the financial markets in fairly decent state. draghi is going to step up to the rest of the euro. he is going to wait for the greek people to say whether they want to live by the rules or not. it will be fascinating to see what happens because tsipras tells the people to vote no. if they vote yes, he will have to resign. it's going to be fascinating the next 10 days. joe: he started off saying greece is not something that would keep you up at night. what would be

guest: we are close to the grexit. the germans and the french and everybody really wants greece to stay in the eurozone. if we don't find an agreement in the next few days i think the situation will be very dangerous for europe and the euro. we're discussing a lot about greece, the situation is dangerous not only for greece. >> we heard that if we did see a grexit, perhaps the contingent would be quite a serious as some people might fear. hugh have a different view. guest: we don't know. the situation is better than three years ago. we don't know the situation of french bring -- a french banks and european banks. tom: various governments have been trying to ensure -- the prettiest chancellor -- the british chancellor was looking for safeguard of a possible grexit. what are leaders of the european countries having to do? that's even further beyond, to protect in the event of a default. guest: i think they should come together and really try to find an agreement. i think angela merkel should try to find a political agree

it would not automatically lead to default or grexit. what would lead to a grexit is if the political will to compromise and continue with negotiations is over. everything is in the hands of the politicians. >> on that question the political will, what is it like in germany. it is been said that the greek parliament will have to pass -- pass legislation before the german lower house votes on it, is that the change that is going to take place? guest: it is possible. i think the german parliament would like to see incredible commitment. they don't want to see plans on paper but they want to see the legislative and is at least a parliamentary agreement in greece. there is the hope that at some point in time it will be passed on and implemented. i am not so worried about german rectification right now. but if mrs. merkel is in favor of further support to greece her party will follow because even if some are getting stomach pain on these things, there is no political alternative to merkel in germany. which means if push comes to shove the par

hans: we talk a lot about grexit.highest ranking german official who is calling it that? arne: and just come back from a meeting. he said for the second time today the greeks have to bear the consequences of their actions. ultimately that would be a grexit. he talks about it. sickly, people are talking about it. posco it -- hans: is it a wish that greece would exit. arne: i think people who are close to the financial committee, they have calculated a grexit would be cheaper for germany, and better for the eurozone, then keeping this drama. hence: let's say there is a yes vote in greece -- hans: let's say there is a yes vote in greece. is there the political will for a new a package for greece? would things have to change? tony: let's put it this way, angela merkel who has defended greece for five years would have a lobbying job to do to get that through. it comes up against the fact that the bundestag has to vote on this. yes, you can still see a deal being pulled out of a hat. for now, the german position is the ball

and found 16 instances where it looked like grexit fears were riding high. the most recent being just this last friday. here's what we found, a few takeaways. one, the u.s. dollar usually outperforms other major macro assets. twor, oil usually underperforms. and we speak a little about this last week. but the u.s. benchmark, they don't move all that much when investors are fretting about greece. first let me talk about the greenback. when you look at it versus u.s. treasury yields, the benchmark indexes, precious metals, other major currencies like pound and the euro and oil, it is a clear outperformer. 75% of the time p trades higher and on average it returns about .2%. most of the other asset classes that i just mentioned, they actually trade negative more than half of the time. like oil. over the 16 instances we found that oil is negative nearly 70% of the time. brent averages lower by 1.4%. that trend of course you saw that continue in today's session. and perhaps the most surprising thing we found in the data is as i mentioned that these grexit fears do

it could mean grexit from the euro. >> it would be disastrous for the future. >> reporter: the eu is a key trading partner. trouble for the euro means trouble for us. with isis attacking nearby and an aggressive vladimir putin trying to make inroads, the u.s. needs a stable greece and a

he has backed down from his earlier claim that a grexit would be cataclysmic for europe. he says it would still be symbolically and politically damaging. it would mark the moment from when the eurozone moves to disintegration. he says the eurozone is not sustainable and new treaties are required to fix it. he despairs of that happening. he says the finance ministers signaled that last week's the last last week's meeting that they have learned nothing and forgotten nothing. >> let's move over to the united states with another big news story. the church that was the victim of the racial shooting last week finally reopened and has services again. >> that is right the church had its first service since the shooting on wednesday night. "the new york times" is among the papers reporting over 1000 people crammed into the church which normally seats 800. in attendance was the governor mayor, and other public representatives. the man presiding said a lot of people expected us to break out in the riot, but they did not know us. he called on the congregation to be alert against bigo

i'm getting a grexit? we heard alexis tsipras said a grexit would spell the beginning of the end for the eurozone. stocks pretty much trading flat maybe in anticipation of the next few hours. emergency meetings aplenty. the ecb will discuss more liquidity to the greek banks today. monday, the leaders get together, the so-called adults in brussels. meanwhile, the euro trading lower today. check out on the week what on earth is going on? we see the specter of a great crisis looming, everyone talks about a brink, the fx market does not think so, they are expecting a deal to be done. the dollar is down .75%. the dollar weekend on the week -- weaken on the week. ed now we are seeing a little bit of a contagion. -- now we are seeing a little bit of a contagion. meanwhile, money is coming out of spain. we are doubling the borrowing costs from march. portugal has doubled as well. 3.1% is double what they were paying on debt. we are looking towards what happens with the rest of the equity trades, and asia. jonathan

the grexit conversation continues and mark gilbert had i have half -- had a hypothesis. the smart way to swear allegiance to the euro in the two atmosphere, it might just be overcoming the resistance of its objectors. interesting we are hearing plan b. joe: also interesting that we thestarting to see contagion is back. for a long time the word was you do not have to worry about greece because the eurozone has ecb, qa, it is all taken care of. we're starting to see signs that nervousness is coming back. one of the things people look for is the spread between the debt of other peripheral countries like spain and italy and portugal and germany. as you can see, there is a

this as fears over greek capital controls mount with the central bank issuing a warning over a grexitd of thieves. the fbi investigates allegations of hacking in major league baseball. >> vladimir putin announced plans to put more than 40 new mistels into service this year. it will aim at territories where threats come from. the move drew sharp criticism from nato. they amount to nuclear rattling and was unjustified and dangerous. >> once russia's biggest private oil company was last year legally seized from its corporate owner and standed back to the state. a court also placed the chairman under house arrest as part of a money laundering probe. the rulings were seen by many as representative of the rix of investing in the company. jeff caught up with the ceo for an exclusive interview and asked how painful the experience was for his company. >> things like that happen in any country and any economy. those situations arise and you have to deal with them. i think one of the important facts and at the same time they recognized to be a good faith buyer back in 2008 so they are also a goo

and it could be a grexit.nd i think they ecb is in a difficult situation and therefore this situation cannot be extended for much longer. therefore the ecb will exert pressure on the greek government and i think this pressure will help. that they will give in and raise and make compromises as far as extensions are concerned. i think find a short-term solutions for tonight. i think what is really important is for the greek economy muddling through we have been observing since years now has come to an end and greek economy needs a medium-term program. to which the greek side is committed a european institution is committed. and program for the next four years so that in the people in the greek economy no how it will be going on -- will know how it will be going on at the future prospects are. and the continuation that we are up solving now. francine: have you noticed a shift in merkel's stance lately? peter bofinger: i think she has already ended the first months of this year. and she knows how much is at stake

that as the risk of grexit moves further.e: china enters the bear market as themanus rate cut fails to stop the rock. regulators are said to consider suspending ipo's.

how likely is a grexit here? >> the problem is the government framed the question in such a manner that even if yes comes as the outcome, then alexis tsipras yesterday said he's going to re-sign which means we go back to the drawing board with new elections and at the same time t economy is going to melt down even more quickly than until now with no banks, with no hi quiddity with no way of pensions reaching the people. >> are the people blaming alexis tsipras? because the people i speak to are blaming the creditors. if we go back to fresh elections the people would vote for alexis tsipras again. >> they would because they think this is the anchor that they can trust because he's the prime minister. he's smart. he says that he knows what he is doing and one has to take into account that there's a great responsibility for the political system in general and i'm excluding my party because the politicians vote from new democracy and now have said the reforms are something we need to make our economy viable and compe

i think they will have contingencies if they grexit. my problem with contingencies is it is -- it is systemic. events could be replicated in other countries. you could have a confrontational government come into power and the situation repeats. the response needs to be more than just a monetary/. splash. it needs to involve an upgrade. we need depositguarantees our domestic. then schemes that maybe take fiscal resources and redistribute them in times of need. what we have today is conditional and the funds are not there. jonathan: to wrap this up, a lot of people want to hear what you say about the treasury market. your prediction, is the yields decline. what interests me is in a selloffs, it is duration, 30 years, even 10 years, the ones that got hit hard -- you are saying, the curve will flatten. francesca: there are two forces that will push yields up. one will create bond across the development space. the other is a central bank hike in rate. the only one i can see in the future is the fed. that will flatten the yield curve, the rea

if they avoid grexit, that is good.st continuing this endless process, this war of attrition, that is not a good outcome for anyone. , note: kicking the can going to be helping at all. how this all came about, did it have to be this way? dispute thatsonous has gone on for years. at the end of the day, it is an easily solvable problem. clive: if you look at the numbers, they are not arguing about big differences. fractions of a percentage point in terms of the fiscal targets. an argument about timing, how quickly greece addresses the fiscal problem. the differences are not that big. the problem is a complete breakdown of trust. are they going to make these promises and the europeans, you know, they just don't believe saygreeks will do what they they will do. you have to have some sympathy. the offers coming from the greek side, it has been a shambles. people don't know what they are actually saying. they do not seem themselves to know. on sunday night, sending a plan and withdrawing it the following morning. it is ridicu

there are grexit concerns on the euro. the danish central bank governor says the kroner is likely to see the same safe haven in flowflow and why it is a big deal. we take a look at how 2015 is shaping up to be a record-breaking year for the m&a. do you really believe we are going to have a deal on greece in the next 48 hours? that is the big question of the day. that's where you will find me. tweet @markbartontv. ♪ mark: raising the cap for emergency liquidity. the ecb has raised the cap. it happened on a daily basis. we will find out how much the cap has been raised. i want to bring you up to is been with top stories. european leaders have given until tomorrow night to make the final push needed to satisfy creditors and and the standoff. alexis tsipras submitted reform measures. finance ministers will meet tomorrow at ahead of a scheduled summit of eu leaders on thursday. the british company is in talks over a possible merger. if the deal goes ahead it could see the rival. shares are up. further evidence the slowdown in c

a direct grexit wouldn't affect us very much. some of the consequences we think about.is just good business planning. that is our responsibility to our shareholders. >> do you think there is a need for interest rates in the united states to start rising? to get more like a normal interest rate environment, whatever that means these days? >> they are at abnormally low levels. when you're in a relatively low growth environment globally, policy makers have to be extremely careful about how quickly they raise interest rates. i think you see that caution in the u.s. and in other parts of the world. there are expectations that are greatest when they start to rise they will raise very slowly. it will be a long time before we're back to the rate that we were historically used to. >> how is the business at barclays performing? how is investment banking doing? >> like all banks, we have had to adapt to this new environment. lower growth. more regulation and so on. barclays is on the good, clear plan to do that. we're making very good progress. we have a good, strong first quarter

conrad: the main euro question is what if a dirty grexit happened? an automatic exit from the monetary union does not exist. there is nothing like this in the treaties of the eurozone. with a dirty gray exit -- grexit greece has outstanding debt of 120 billion euros. if the country went into default the repayment of this debt would be put into early into question. that is why politicians are so nervous in brussels, berlin, and other european capitals. just as nervous or people in the financial markets. anchor: we are in unprecedented territory. let's stay in frankfurt for a quick look. the dax lost more than 1% amid the setback. the euro stoxx 50 also down slightly more. in the u.s., the markets fell broadly as well although trading continues. the euro staying strong there at one u.s. dollar and $.12. anchor: we are about to go to a short great. we will have the story of a powerful and heart wrenching commemoration for the anniversary of the end of the kosovo war. anchor: this installation is called thinking of you and it features thousands of dresse

today, it is the grexit. tomorrow, the brexit.

the eu is painting an extremely dire picture of the consequences of a grexit. what would actually happen if greece left the eurozone? are they ready for that? reporter: the greeks themselves are not ready for this. they are in deep denial. they do not believe that they will wake up to any financial armageddon. they believe and they want the government to strike a deal, whatever this deal is, even if it means added pain and added austerity, to rid this country of this continued and prolonged uncertainty. is the government prepared? it is coming out and saying we are simply continuing our efforts to strike a deal, but it is not disclosing what a plan b or c may include. brian: the greek government says this is a matter of national honor. with the people except more austerity -- would the people accept more austerity? reporter: the opinion polls show there was a showing of more than 50% of greeks who say they are prepared to sign up to further austerity for the sake of keeping greece within the euro. that is a main condition one of the main conditions on which the

clearly if there was a greek default or grexit markets would go lower. do we go dramatically lower from here? i don't think we do. the big difference between today and 2011 and 2012 is greece is almost on its own and the debt held by the banks is moved over and all held by the public sector so a chances of a greece default or grexit are much much slimmer than three or four years ago. >> significant barrier to greece's path to reform as he promised to pay the pensions the lack of liquidity, how big of a concern is that for you? because the german dax losing a significant amount but it was the banks being the worst performing sector. >> it's understandable when you have the risk of something like grexit or default that the banks are going to be vulnerable until we get to the point where we realize it's not going to trigger another flash across. it's not our view. our view is that this is much more self-contained because we had three or four years to prepare for this. every regulator would have gone to its banks and said are you sure you didn't have any gre

anna: what about the grexit?on: i have been 50-50 that there would be some sort of default since the start of the year. which sounded bolder at the start of the year and conservative now. i do have to move toward the point where the default is probably the more likely outcome. anna: what does that mean for the grexit? simon: greece has to vote to leave but situations do force you toward the exit -- grexit. support has to come from the greek central bank so that money has to come from somewhere. there has been a number of different options. the hoarding of euros and issuing a parallel currency. most of those ideas only act as a temporary stop. whatever you do, as soon as you start issuing ious or anything like that you're heading toward a net it. -- an exit. anna: we will get his thoughts on a range of subject this morning. former florida governor and republican jeb bush announced monday he is running for president of the united states. he would be the third in the bush family to take the presidency behind his fat

chief told the magazine that he is baffled by the greek leadership and is no longer ruling out a grexit scenario. in athens, we explain there is a phenomenon of people with john unusually large sums of cash from bank sheens across the country. >> i have spoken to several people who have withdrawn and pull money from the banks depending on what income they have and what savings they have managed to do. of course, a quarter of the greeks are unemployed. people are saving anywhere from 500,000 euros to 700,000 euros in secret places at home. people will not divulge where because they are worried of what could happen if no deal is struck in the coming days. the memories of cyprus and the capital control, where people could not withdraw money more money from atms, are still visible here. they want to be sure they have enough money to survive any such incident. as one of the people i was talking to was saying to me, i would not want to fight over any milk at the supermarket, so other people have stocked up on food and other supplies. what we are hearing is that the greeks have withdrawn 1.2 b

. >> a number of european policy makers have been commenting on the prospect of a grexit. the eu commissioner said it wouldn't be the end of the world if they left the euro zone. meanwhile, an exit is a possibility, there can be new aid for greece in the single currency. this time last week julia there was a political desire to reach a solution and reach a deal but now we're here on june 29th, on monday, and the lack of productive talk results seem like we're not going to get some type of progress this week. would you agree? >> well the referendum call was a real game changer. a break down in the negotiations over the weekend and what we see in greece now is the need for capital controls. they with draw 60 euros a day. foreigners coming to greek will not be impacted but what we have heard over the weekend according to banking sources is 40% of those atms actually had cash in them. so not about the availability of cash. just whether or not they can continue to fill up the atms. concerns about whether or not the bank holiday will continue onwards. people concerned about how

there will be no money at all in the banks if there is a grexit. if people vote according to the government's wishes by the way. the government says no okay. suppose the majority vote no. then there will be no money nothing. and the government has not even made plans for an alternative currency it's the most irresponsible government i've seen in greece in decades. there is no concern about the contagion in other countries. greece cannot even deal itself with its own problem, not to mention you know worrying about other countries. >> and i'm just curious as to whether or not greeks actually know and understand the real consequences of voting no in that referendum but i do want to ask you, when you men's about no issue with contagion, but realistically, how vulnerable are places like portugal italy, spain, other countries that have had issues with debt in the past? >> well, there is a bit of contagion. we saw it you know the ten-year bonds of portugal and italy went up a bit but not much. you know just having you know the interest rate on them go fro

grexit, brexit and china present risks to the forecast. joining us to discuss the report is tim. for joining us this morning. i'm just thinking about the potential deal between potash and k and s in germany and i just wonder that some of these companies, are they simply making a bid out of a position of weakness? that's massive oversupply because there's no real demand. they're really going for m&a because they can't find growth elsewhere. >> i'm not sure that's right. you'll see different drivers in any particular transaction but overall this would make sense. you're looking at a company trying to reassert as number one in the global market we have two more years. what's going to drive that? >> and you have a normalizing of conditions. >> how do you know these deals will create value? how do you know that the valuations are not in bubble territory and we'll see seeing a steep fall in the share prices? >> we don't forecast this as bubble territory. so i think we see a difference between this cycle the prefinancial crisis you see, i think, jagged moves in the cycle. we see this as

it keeps default and grexit at bay. >> we discussed this yesterday and we'll have another discussion a very important meeting tomorrow morning discussing our follow up decision. of course our first priority is to save the country and to save the greek citizens. >> you just said you won't vote for it so you should vote for it then. >> we cannot vote. this is an early death. a continuation of this early death. you know their position leaders are somewhere else on brussels and trying to persuade the european leaders to create a new interim government. >> you think there are regime changes. >> the optimum vision maybe is to have no elections in europe and replace the politicians. this would be the goal but this is not good for the european taxpayers. >> that's pretty inflammatory. let me talk to you about something pretty unsavory. the words are not controversial. we stay in europe. but when you put them above the picture of the gates you create all kinds of bad feeling so you tweeted a picture of the gates with those words. we stay in europe. why did you replace the words with that? tha

. >> do you think the euro zone could survive a grexit? >> i do hope so. >> he was striking almost a somber tone. he was confident and hopeful greece would reach a deal with creditors however when we asked if it could survive a grexit he didn't say that wasn't on the table. he just said i hope so. a lot of hope and nervousness as well. this is taking place on the side lines of the eu-latin american summit but coming up we'll tell you about the other developments happening with latin american leaders. back to o you. >> in the meantime let's get you a market update. european stocks moving to the upside. after six consecutive days of losses here we are on thursday look at green across the screen. the stoxx europe 600 index up at session highs right now. a lot of that having to do with the out performance in energy shares shares. right now we are at 11,339. cac 40 up .6%. as nancy was breaking down details, leaders of greece france and germany agreed to intensify negotiations with it's creditors but at this point no science of progress. we're

if you look back to 2012 when we had the grexit scare, the xlf was off almost 18% in three or four weeks and the s&p was only down 9. the financials are definitely the place to watch. >> but i guess, larry, the big lesson from that grexit fear a few years ago was if you you stayed with the banks it would have been a really great trade. do you see this kind of reaction if something does go wrong with greece here lasting more than a few days? more than just an initial reaction. >> i think you want to buy fear in the banks. since lehman you've had four or five opportunities. if you sit in the boat and wait for some real fear, that's where you're going to get some values in the banks. and this show's the perfect show because right now you can put on a put spread. you can buy puts on an etf that has a lot of financials in them. >> all right, thank you, larry. larry mcdonald on the systemic risk we're watching for monday. darngs the trade here. we're looking at jpmorgan. >> first things first, larry just nailed it. it is the perfect show. there's no doubt about that. and we are going to put on

caroline: and grexit, will that ever happen?: when you look at the opinion polls in the u.k. they give us to trip messages. if he comes back with a good deal they will support him but if he doesn't you cannot sit and say there is no risk of the u.k. making that decision. caroline: stay tuned through bloomberg throughout the morning. several conversations you will not want to miss. ecb president jean-claude trichet. and what we were just speaking about, ecb easing. and then look johnson joins us at 10:00 a.m.. and grexit, what would it mean for the community? a quick reminder of the twitter question of the day. do you think that tesco is a takeover target? we just heard breaking numbers. they have done better than expected. we did see the values go down. but that was better than had been expected. many thought we would see a 2% decline and volumes are up. a bit of a turnaround there. the next on countdown, bouncy earnings from nike. next we will talk sports brands and fitness trends. ♪ caroline: it is 7:17 here in london and here

and on grexit? who expects to see grexit? wow. not only has a janet yellen convinced many of you but angela merkel has convinced many of you. not only have half of you not expected to see greek default, but only a small minority of you are expecting to see grexit. alan, is that too complacent? mr. howard: i think it is a bit complacent. what is going on in russia-ukraine is currently occupying her. if you see them coming down, which may not be for a while, it could change. the worry about grweexit -- what does it mean one year down the road? once you understand that, if you are a holder in one of the southern european countries, do you really want to hold your money? now the argument is to not worry about it. everyone is behaved well so unlike the greeks, we make sure there is not a problem. i don't exact -- on the figure to the european treasury quickly, i don't see it happening. i don't see the net. effectively, you're telling every country you are fine. i do not think that is going to work. what happens when you have an electio

the market gets sold off on any kind of of grexit. i think that's one of the names i'd be looking at hoping that this name pulls back and giving you an opportunity to get back in. >> guy. >> you've had pullbacks in this name. from 2012 to where we are nowish this is probably a 30d stock pushing up toward 120. and every so often the name, usually around earnings, has been an opportunity to buy. yes, it is expensive, but as long as bob iger stays there you have to stay with disney. i don't know if you can wait. i get it might be getting reached in terms of valuation but they seem to grow into it every single quarter. >> pipeline is good in terms of the movies and the pickup in the theme park attendance. >> everything's good. they're hitting on all cylinders, and bob iger is staying longer pf weep been long this one for a couple of years. every time i think it gets expensive and it's probably in that territory now i think how aim going to know to get out now and to get in, when am i going to know exactly when it get in and then you've go

at this point what you put on the percentage of a grexit and bankruptcy?st: the probability of a greek departure is higher now than it has been at any time since 2010-2011. . don't think it is a certainty he will have to variously -- very seriously consider what the european union has put before them. it could be division in the syriza coalition and it could be more elections in greece. that is far better than all of the risks of leaving the eurozone. alix: wouldn't give me a percentage but it seems like the risk is increasing. now to another topic, if you love bananas, you will hate this story. there is a killer fungus attacking fruit. it appeared in australia, asia and africa. it has not attacked top exporter ecuador but is enough to scare dumb monti produce -- dlel monte produce. the banana culture makes it serious the disruption because most of the world's cavendish bananas are clones. production did increase in india and china which accounts for 37% of output. we eat a lot of it and is. we eat almost as much as apples and oranges combined. still ahead

it is not because it today grexit.ll three ratings agencies in it is notays necessarily for sovereign bonds. we will see how long there willing to give greece that breathing room, if you will. >> the likes of zimbabwe. not a good place to be in. get more on all the days top stories. bloomberg business brings the best of bloomberg news and new digital comment. , new jersey governor chris christie announces his presidential campaign. plus, when time stood still. the actress second in a minute today. that is all on bloomberg.com. be sure to check it out. >> closer to home, what a first half it has been in china. then things changed abruptly. investors were sent scrambling for the exit. they posted their best day in six years. david is here to make sense of it all. where do they go from here? >> i don't know. [laughter] i have for five pages of analyst notes. they are all saying different things. policyf this is really makers. let's start with what happened yesterday. wild swings. between the bottom and the top, 11% swing.

jonathan: number one, the eurozone officials can respond to a grexit. the credibility question, three months ago i said to the president, the swiss is strong what are you going to do? three months later, the euro swiss is still trading at 105, it is not working in the case of the central bank when janet yellen said the dollar needs to go lower, it goes lower when draghi says the euro needs to go lower, it does. the swiss franc needs to weaken, it is not weakening anymore. guy: looking for to the interview, jonathan, thank you very much. i think i am in the wrong place today, jonathan ferro in beautiful switzerland. i am sitting in a room with no windows. the man next to me, in this room with no windows, mark parker -- bob barker. are we heading for capital controls this weekend, or a deal? bob: it is difficult to say. what you want to look at is what are the stress points for greece and what are the stress points for the markets? the primary stress points for greece are the outflows of deposits in their banking system. yesterday the greek banks were thr

whether there is a grexit are not whether the referendum is a yes or no, what happens to greek banks?o many questions still to be answered. the reality is that investors are waiting to see what happens. we still expect the euro lower in the coming months looking for a move to parity as you go into your end. we're not saying much movement either side. rishaad: will it be the actions of the fed or within the eurozone itself? guest: the reality for us is that it is a bit of both. the fed will hike rates in september, potentially once more by the end of the year and u.s. growth is already rebounding and we are expecting a pretty good payroll number at the end of this week. andnger numbers in the u.s. other growth with higher interest rates and in europe we still have the ecb which will have full-blown qe. in that sense there are signs of recovery in europe but it is a long way before a full recovery so that still suggests to us that the dollar will fare worse than the euro. greece, even though it is a tiny fraction is grabbing all of the headlines. you think there is sort of a sense that

the most exciting part today that will the grexit happen in 10 minutes or two hours.he deadline that is coming up. scarlet: thank you for building up the drama. the latest in the markets. top stories this morning. the new york prison worker accused of helping prisoners escape is due in court today. prosecutors say joyce miller -- joyce mitchell aided the inmates. governor andrew cuomo has asked the state's inspector general to investigate the breakout. rescue workers in georgia searching for more than 20 people and a number of attentional he dangerous animals missing after severe flooding ravaged the area around the zoo. at least 12 people are dead. enters thermally race for the republican presidential nomination today. the former governor will hold a rally. bush has likely raised a record amount of money before me his candidacy official. we will have live coverage of the announcement set for 3:00 p.m. eastern time. those were your top stories. erik: the wearables revolution hits wall street this week. fifth it seeking evaluation best -- bit seeking evaluation seeking

if you think about a grexit and debt,about a 50% on greek you could see renewed austerity and that ising that they want. just think it is important to bear in mind it is not so much dependent on deadlines. there is no greg's it by accident. it would have to be a conscious decision by european policy makers. we think the likelihood is only 30% or so. that is all the time we have right now. think you for joining us. -- thank you for joining us. falling asleep on the job. how one man fan that out the hard way. when trending business returns. ♪ sherry: welcome back. let's take a look at what is trending on social media with david and yvonne. yvonne: we are talking about greece here because there is a whole lot of nothing going on. david: no progress. it is a topic that has so many angles. there is the local story and also what the creditors are saying. get to a comment here. some interesting things happened over the last few days here one us. the day started with many sympathetic people on their side. yvonne: some people are tired of hearing about it. david: the finance minister replies.

putting the blame back into creditors' hands saying a grexit would be too costly for the eurozone. having an impact on the markets. we are around the lows of the session 15 minutes before the closing bell. day wheres comes on a we have not seen a 1% correction in stocks for about nine weeks. this is an impressive downturn. is theit is the --julie: biggest acclaim we have seen for stocks. he is showing nerdiness saying bring it on -- he is showing nerviness saying bring it on. the dow is negative for the year. the s&p and dow negative for the quarter. the s&p is having its worst day since october 2014 and at its lowest since april 1. the dow, its worst day since march and nasdaq the worst day in treatments -- in three months. let's look at the intraday chart of the s&p 500. it has been remarkable how the selloff has been getting seein -- gaining steam. overnight when futures began trading in reaction to the greek news, they were down 2% and then came back gradually. we are only down less than 1%. since then, we have seen a deterioration as the session has progressed. we are seeing t

some fear that a post grexit greece could forge closer ties with russia or china and that would upset the geopolitical balance in the west. floods of greece battling homelessness could cross into neighboring countries needing aid and wanting welfare. the very real concern that banks there may not open on monday. we've got a live report from athens in about 30 minutes time. just behind me was the sight of an horrific terror attack. horror visited this hotel open friday. it was one of three on friday that included france and queue queue -- qat kuwait. hundreds of people rallied right here yesterday evening to denounce the terrorism and show unity. a gunman killed 38 people. he was -- who was simply enjoying their vacation. mostly they were european. >> translator: we are here today to say that terrorism hits in the bones. there's no way to remain silent. they have to know tunisia is at a cross roads. you have to be citizens or go to hell. >> meanwhile, tourists are fleeing this area after this attack. the u.k. says more than a dozen of its citizens were gunned down. british government s

what would a grexit actually mean for the u.s. economy?ur channels or linkages to the greek economy are obviously quite low. fairly non-existent. it's really about global financial markets and any contagion as well as a flight to quality and potentially pushing the value of the dollar higher. those would be the main contagion risks. clearly it would depend on the magnitude of any tightening of global financial conditions. it's actually quite difficult to figure out the degree of that tightening that would result from either exit or default. but clearly that would have the potential of delaying the fed. >> it's all a big experiment, isn't it? thank you very much. so what does this all mean for your portfolio? let's go around the horn here. b.k. >> i think you have -- i would put the odds of a greek exit or some sort of accidental, let's call it that, much higher than 40%. i think it's at best 50-50. but think about it. it's political suicide if any of the greek leaders actually succumb to some of the demands. they'd be going into a deeper d

you and your team led by someone we had on last week do not see a grexit. why?he greeks voting yes to the bailout to the euro? >> at this stage developments are fluid we can't be all this certain about the next likely developments but where we stand today, it would seem likely that at least the referendum will take a relatively benign outcome so the greek population would vote in favor. and that would lead to negotiations that could produce another agreement which would stave off the grexit for the rest of this year. but we've opened pandora's box at this stage. at every stage of the process there are fault lines. i think things might with go astray. >> lots of uncertainty. watching the euro, sharply off the lows of the session overnight. we dropped below 1010. why do you think the euro is rebounding? is it about hopes about greece won't have to exit? >> i think people agreem. that the referendum is on a plan that does not exist after midnight tomorrow. and so it's not clear exactly how you go from a referendum to a greek exit. the weakness in this does seem to

are they rallying the markets because there's no immediate grexit or capital controls.n that's fine. but are they rallying because they think the greek crisis is sold or we're not going to have further speed bumps on the story down the road. because if it's the latter they're wrong. a lot of german people that don't think it's the right deal for germans and german taxpayers and we're not that far away from the 2017 election where they can seize upon any weakness with the germans and then the greek side as well. we have had a really good sampling of what people think of this and new democracy as well. he basically said this is a really really bad deal for greece. doesn't like what he is doing. saying there's absolutely no growth agenda at all in this deal at all and i said to him would you vote for it? he said that's a very difficult question because he's a patriot and doesn't want to see a grexit and he could vote for it so greece could move to the next stage. it doesn't address the problems greece is facing such as the growth as well. you've got the creditors don't lik

clearly, he thinks there could be a grexit. it just wouldn't be a sensible grexit. that is a minor shift in his tone. also in germany, it seems the greeks have lost a sympathetic ear. sigmund gabriel, the stp chairman head of their party in coalition with merkel's government. here's what he said over the weekend. he said, "the shadow of a greek exit from the eurozone is becoming increasingly perceptible. greece is gambling the future of their country in europe -- and europe's as well." it looks like they are about 2 billion euros apart. we have a busy week ahead. in some ways, i think that wednesday rate decision not a rate decision, what they will do with emergency liquidity assistance and what sort of collateral they will provide or require, i think that is the key question for the week. jonathan: i agree with you. jones, you hear about the differences. hans just laid them out. how are they going to be able to bridge the gap and when does time actually run out? we've had deadline after deadline. they say the middle of this week. do we know that that's true? jones: