we will hear more sound from jeffrey gundlach. stocks could struggle before there is a buying opportunity. that is slightly in line with what goldman said. talking about how it could be an ugly first quarter. let's see how all of this is playing out in currency markets as a result of the better trade data. stocks, bounce in asian and that is putting upward movement behind some of the commodity-related currencies, the aussie and south american land. let's recap oil. undersneaky cheeky peak $30 a barrel. manus: $10 oil is a possibility. we were left out of town when we said it would be $20 a barrel. atfrey gundlach says even $45, it's not enough to save the energy market. anna: let's get caroline hyde. caroline: thank you. china's trade surplus widened and exports recovered. the world's second-largest economy's trade balance increased to $60 billion, taking the full year tally to $595 billion. that has weakened the yuan. barack obama has used his final state of the union to call for a more noble politics, expressing regret at americ

jeffrey are gundlach raising eyebrows with what he said as this very etf conference.omments that has everyone buggs and are we about to experience a 1987-style crash? why one market watcher is sounding the alarm on stocks. but, first, let's get to international markets. all eyes are focused on china. there are other markets out there across the globe in turmoil. let's get to cnbc's done chu who is breaking it back at headquarters. dom. >> melissa, many of the countries have country specific etfs that trade here that have been allowing some investors to capitalize on the rise or fall of the markets but let's take you through a quick reset of what's happening with these markets. we do know that here in the u.s. we are something called correction territory. that's when an index or a stock or any kind of asset follows 10% or more from its recent highs. just the name that some traders call it. if you look at some of the markets that are in that area right now. in correction territory. it's also india with their index, the sensex. the know kay and japan, in france. those ha

jeffrey gundlach will harsh words for janet yellen and the federal reserve. did the fed rate hike come too soon? a top bond manager weighs in and the gold bulls are rushing in with gold up more than 6% this year. can this rally continue? we've got the details later. >>> but first let's start off with apple moving lower now in the after-hours session as tim cook talks about the hurdles he's facing in china. let's get to josh lipton at apple headquarters with the very latest, josh. >> melissa, i just had the chance to speak with apple ceo tim cook a few minutes ago and got his take on the quarter and the outlook. of course, front and center for investors, everybody wants to know how apple's business in:is performing. take a listen to what cook just told analysts about that. >> we began to see some signs of economic softness in greater china earlier this month, most notably in hong kong. beyond the short-term volatility, we remain very confident about the long-term potential of the china market and the large opportunities ahead of us, and we are maintaining our

thousands expected to tune in for jeffrey gundlach's 2016 announcement. the hits and the mrs.. sses.e hits and the mi how president obama plans to call for a divided nation to come together. first, let's head to the markets desk where julie hyman has the latest. julie: markets bouncing down again. every moment you look at it, there is something different going on. the doubt now lower come s&p now higher. it is very, very small. the nasdaq holding on to its gains as it snapped the losing streak it has been on. a lot of attention being paid to oil prices today. that correlation returning to some extent. oil close to $30 a barrel. not as low as $30 and six cents earlier in the session -- $30.06 earlier in the session. energy shares are selling off, material shares and selling off. a lot of the big cap tech stocks coming back today. google, facebook, consumer discretionary stocks bouncing back. to some extent. even these groups are bouncing around a good bit in today's session come except for energy, which has been lower throughout the day. david: we saw the bloomberg commodities i

jeffrey gundlach pointing out that that's still the concerning part of the market and something to watchand as it closed at its lows yesterday, it's just a continued concerning sign and one of the reasons why the market itself has had trouble getting out of the way of that. >> it is the credit story and debt story, and it's squarely right now really on china. china's dead has increased four fold. it's got the largest debt including in japan. it's not with the banks. not like here. it's with the shadow markets and municipalities and real estate. until they can work through that, that's going to spread its areas like germany. in terms of credit, there are areas of credit that are worth looking at. you know, we had mark on. he has a big appetite for volatility and risk that most viewers do not have. >> he has a long horizon. >> his money is locked up. he is not walking in and getting emotional like joseph cohen said and then saying i have to sell. down 10%. >> in that sort of -- there are opportunities. there have to be somewhere. what josh should be on your list or what is on your own pers

that's the view of jeffrey gundlach. we will get the details when we come back. ♪ guy: 19 minutes until the equity market open. this is "on the move." a bright and chilly morning. it enables -- we will start burning more oil to keep our house is warmer. let's get to caroline hyde. caroline: volkswagen has dealt a blow as it comes to overcome the omissions cheating scandal, that as the california air resources board rejected its engine fix. the news will put more pressure on the chief executive who is scheduled to meet u.s. regular tours to discuss ways out of the crisis later today. sainsbury's reported third-quarter sales that slightly beat estimates. fell 0.4%.sales telefonica has agreed to pay 2.4 billion euros for spanish football rights. the three-season deal includes the spanish first division and the european champions. hackers who say they are affiliated with a group anonymous have claimed responsibility for taking down nissan's global website. it's the latest major japanese company to be hit in protests over wha

they're assessen, whereas gundlach has assessed and sees the outlook as being fairly disastro disastrous. >>> thank you for your insight. as usual we can't agree on what the fed actually said. >> that's what makes the market. >> neither can the fed. >> neither can the fed, apparently. >>> let's move on to our "closing bell" exchange, gerard fitzpatrick is with us today, steve grasso from stuart frankel is at post 9 with us, and rick santelli checks in from chicago. steve we're about the lows of the day here, the s&p is at 1881 right now, how do you read the market's response? >> i think the market got way ahead of itself, bill. more often than not it does the same type of thing on every fed day. when you look at oil, oil ran up pretty good on a spike intraday, and then sold off right on the fed. if you look at that as being your indication or canary in the coal mine, it's just got recovering the energy space. that space has been so beaten up. they're worried about the dollar reaction. i don't think the fed should have ever changed, i don't think the fed is going to raise again. the check

of japan but if you're telling me markets are broken and we're going straight down and guys like gundlach, everybody piling on. we all know that the u.s. economy and manufacturing is in a recession, that that leads gdp. tell me what i don't know. get to a place where you've got a place and you can pick good stocks and you can be constructive and you cannot freak out on the days when the vix is spiking up 20% because that's what's been happening for the last three sgleeks you, what were you doing, what are you doing? >> i didn't do anything today but in this environment you want to buy anything with a yield and to me tlt is probably the easiest way to do it. when you look around the world and see negative interest rates. >> that still works. >> still getting 2% plus capital appreciation. >> been a good trade. >> regular viewers will know that my trade for january where i've been putting money is in things like verizon, okay, stuff with yields. >> yields. >> to your point, and there's good fundamental news and then the stock was also the beneficiary of people searching for yield. the thing

thousands expected to tune in for jeffrey gundlach's 2016 announcement. the hits and the mrs.. president obama plans to call for a divided nation to come together. first, let's head to the markets desk where julie hyman has the latest. julie: markets bouncing down again. every moment you look at it, there is something different going on. the doubt now lower come s&p now higher. it is very, very small. the nasdaq holding on to its

for example, you had jeffrey gundlach out there, he was pretty bearish.so should we say, not very forgiving of what the federal reserve has done. eric: to put it mildly, he is not a fan of the fed. he said "what are these people doing?" he said they were frozen in their thinking, and he went so yellen'slling janet rate hike like pete carroll's call in the super bowl. he was pro-etf. he has a couple of them. scarlet: very successful launch last year. eric: etf which is almost a year old, by the way. just cost $2 billion today as we speak. very fast-paced to get that kind of money. it has never had an outflow. this guy is taking his money right and left and that is difficult for an actively managed etf. gundlach is doing well in the etf space. scarlet: secret assizes janet yellen. what about -- as he could assizes janet yellen. they have basically put --ruleig group proposals proposals. one is liquidity requirement that would affect bond etf's, and derivative use, and the bond liquidity issue would wreak havoc on things like hyg. what he is saying is you gu

if oil stabilizes and if jeffrey gundlach is correct that yesterday of as short-term low in oil, then, yes, we could have a bounce, but i don't think it's sustainable. i don't think there's one that's going to reverse a lot of the negative price akt action that we have had not just this month, but also in november and december. >> jimmy. >> can i just point out that this is the theired day that the futures were up before the open. we opened up and then they trailed off. the last two days we have ended up in the green. this pattern is the third day in a row. let's see how the afternoon goes. >> it's exactly the reason why i wanted to ask that very question at the top of the show stoed. stwloo you get an a, a gold star? >> looked like it could be a bounce kind of a day. evaporate brz we even come on the air at noon. >> part of this is that most of the trading is done in the first half hour and the last half hour. i'm not going to point fingers. high frequency trading has something to do with that, but that's a factual statement. i'm not going to say it doesn't matter. it does. it's the

we talked to the analyst who was way ahead of the street on that one, and bonnie baja of jeffrey gundlach joining us as well. we'll see you in about 15 minutes, and lots to discuss today. >> all right. sounds good, scott. thank you very much. consumers are benefitting obviously from falling oil prices, but what about american businesses? the u.s. chamber of commerce is out with its state of american business. joining us first on cnbc is thomas donahue, the president and ceo of the u.s. chamber of commerce. it's great to have you back, tom. thanks for joining us. >> i'm glad to be here. >> we just had a state of the union. obviously it's been a tumultuous start to the year in equities. what does business want to see this year more than anything? >> well, i think business -- by the way, i talk to hundreds of them every year on a one-on-one basis, businesses, about what they have to do to get jobs and growth. they are concerned about what's going on in the economy, particularly across the globe. watching a promise from the administration issued again yesterday for unbelievable expansion and

liz: give short-term messages here, so you agree with gundlach on capital preservation. >> absolutelyliz: you're not saying jump in on a day like this. what do you thinhappens tomorrow? we're not a day by day day trader, we're down 360 points on the dow? >> i think we have these what i consider to be these big drawdowns and bouncebacks that are much less than the drawdown. and that's the sign of a market rolling over. we'll probably get that tomorrow. liz: anthony scaramucci, you are still on the phone. you have been on the phone working it saying buy this, buy that on a day like this? >> listen, i am cautious about the equity markets. we're in a defensive position this year because of what we know about where rates are likely to go, so as the federal reserve normalizes, liz, the stock market will start to trade back into normal historical range, and that's lower, frankly. not much lower from where we are today but it is lower and people have to make the adjustment. liz: john lonski, the transports hit a two-year low today, we've gone lower than that. at a time when transports should

call your attention to the headline that jeffrey gundlach says that the technicals at least to him showt you could have a short-turmoil bottom today. crude barely hanging on to 30. could go under that really at any moment. joe, you watch the techanicals s much as the fundamentals. maybe not. i don't know. tell me. >> that would be great. love to see it happen. i'm not sure exactly which technicals jeffrey is talking about. i'm sure he sees something within his office. that would be a great thing if we see a bottom and the s&p could finally rally. >> more on that, the option monster has awakened. the jeannie is out of the bottle. whatever you want to say. pete has a new strategy in the halftime portfolio challenge. he is going to reveal it next. it's a fact. kind of like working from home equals not working. numbers look pretty good, how's it on your end dave? oh, the numbers look so good. dave, dave's on it. ♪ ♪ discover the magic of scottsdale. plan your getaway at magicalscottsdale.com >>> after a disappointing last place finish in our halftime portfolio competition, pete is ready for

the psychological view, i read a great line yesterday from jeffrey gundlach. capital preservation is what the markets will be about, not about making money. does that transfer of the tree into the boardroom for you? michael: the companies i am involved in, we are very clear. in my personal view, when you look at what happened in 2008, sometimes you forget that too quickly. a strong balance sheet is very important. in uncertain times like that, you have the lines of credit, the balance sheet, the ability to withstand shocks you are not expecting. let us take oil. no one foresaw this collapse. why not? it was quite obvious some areas were slowing down, some more efficient use of oil and fuel. more green energy coming through, we knew the americans were producing shale. it was a shock. and actually, that has negative reproductions. similarly on foresaw this very long period a very low deflation with low interest rates. we have to learn to live in this environment. and we will have to learn to be able to come in the way to the banks are being required to strengthe

>> i found they don't necessarily agree with gundlach what we found because of the market with globallong with the market volatility, respond that they will delay hikes. 36% say no effect, and only 5% say it will leave the fed to cut rates, in another question that we asked, 80% think the rate hike was the right move. moving on to show you where they and how they have delayed it. in the last survey they thought the nest week in april, now it's may. now it's february 2017. on my other shoulder here the terminal rate. that had been the first quarter of 18 at 2.58%, now it's pushed ahead a quarter to the second quarter of 18 at 2.56%. there is in optimism there. here's the current level of the s&p. i guess that was yesterday. there you can see what's happening to the 2016 photograph. it's 203.5. that's up about 35 points. also this is compared to our survey mid month, the worst of the pessimism is out there that represents an 8% increase from here and a 14% or 15% increase through 2017. not too bad returns in a world that's thought to be the world of low returns. the ten-year treasury, t

we mentioned at the top jeff gundlach saying margin calls might be happening. chaes the mood, what's the feeling, what are people doing? >> i think all of the wild moves we really have had since october are all margin calls, and i think it's all an oversimplification but sometimes that's needed to kind of get your arms wrapped around the macro. i think the one thing i'm hearing here that i don't hear on tv or i don't read enough in the newspapers is that there is a margin call liquidation. in other words, if you're fully leveraged, and the world really has been fully leveraged for a long time, when prices fall, the amount you can hold gets smaller. so you need to sell something. the part i don't hear on the floor is, okay, they're selling stocks but they're buying bonds. i don't hear the buying part. when you talk to a trader that has a margin call, you don't hear about, gee, i wonder what i'm going to buy next. that's not the conversation. the conversation is what is it exactly i can sell at the best price that's most liquid to get my portfolio in balance agai