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we are talk with bond king jeffrey gundlach. do you think there is a recession coming the next few months? >> there is basically two or three indicators that investors should look at that are all fail safe. one is the leading economic indicators which year over year are going below zero and tends to be incredibly consistent with recession. it's not strong, but it's not close to zero. one thing we started focusing on is the unemployment rate. if you take the unemployment rate and compare it to its 12-month moving average. you never get a rescission without the unemployment rate being above its average. there is false signals in that indicator. it sometimes falsely signals recession. but you never get a recession without it crossing over. the good news is it's below its average. but the bad news is it will cross over before august of this year. anthony: so talking august there is a high likelihood? >> i don't know if i would go high likelihood. there is one indicator that never gives a false signal. the dat crossover point being t

bond guru jeffrey gundlach says negative rates are part of the problem. so what then is the solution. >> really trying to fight deflation with deflation which is sort of like trying to put out the fire in your house by pouring gasoline on it. not a good side. >> good morning. and welcome to "street signs." we did get a bit of good news across the markets. kicking off in the green. although we are seeing some weakness in the french market. this as investors can't to chemo an eye on oil. both wti and brent moving sharply up. moves of over a dollar as fighting in libya threatens to halt the flow of oil from the country. and this while a massive wild fire in canada has disrupted its oil production. that wild fire has forces 80,000 people to flee their homes. a state of emergency has been declared in the entire province of alberta. the moves to the up in the oil price helping oil majors here in europe. also looking at -- earnings this morning dropped 38% at rep sol. but the good news is that figure was better than expected. rel sol up in spain. the spanish oil

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some on fox and writes about double line founder jeff gundlach and what he said was, it is going to happenyou are going to get a reagan response with donald trump. he told a crowd in new york said, he promises a wall, he promises to bring jobs back, and he promises a lot of infrastructure spending. it -- trump is extremely comfortable with debt. this is how you spend your way out of austerity. this has been the last $48 -- 48 hour bench of trump analysis, a lot of it will be embarrassing for a month and six months from now. but mr. gundlach is dead on now is that under republican administrations we end up spending money than republicans would like to admit to. it is not just about president reagan, it is about other republican presidents as compared to the published frugality of democrats. what i'm talking about is a real delicate debate in the united states, but clearly there is a zeitgeist out there that given a republican presidency, this big it gets opening -- opened -- the spec it gets opened. if it hasi wonder changed since we had the debt crisis in europe and whether people will loo

and jeffrey gundlach telling an investor web cast he sees some hawkish rebellion showing up.calls yellen the biggest dove. 50% chance of only one more rate hike this year. he can see the s&p going to 1600. on today's economic agenda couple of things coming up. april retail sales and the producer pricing index both out. sales expected to rebound after a decline in march. then we're going to get may consumer sentiment and march business innervate ris. >> retailers have had some problems this week. >> i heard. >> you missed a lot here. did you see some of the people we had on this week? >> i heard. >> your buddy sidney blumenthal was on. >> i heard i heard -- he described me as his little friend. >> like almost a little marco. i did one liberal --. >> viewers so kind. they tweet me. -- i heard. >> [ inaudible ]. >> big week. >> guy that jamie called. >> a jerk. >> right. >> is jerk a word? it's half of a word isn't it? >> i said rim job radar when they did that. [ drum roll ] >> and he turns red. i don't turn red. >> announcer: this awkward momentum has been brought to you by jo

jeff gundlach -- think she will put the brakes on some of the more hawkish fromments we have heard membersthe fed. you see a little lift in stocks today. revisions,latest gdp showing growth of a 10th of 1%. and in the past few moments, we got the final numbers from the university of michigan consumer sentiment at 94.7% pay the prior read was 94 .4%. this is the final revision of that number. that's look at what sectors are in the move in the s&p 500. today,is the laggard donald oil prices, but otherwise, consumer discretionary financials coming back after losses yesterday. health care and technology trading higher in today's session. on the downside, we have energy and oil prices pulling back the second day. down below $49 a barrel as investors look at the recent lift in oil after it got about got above $50 per barrel. it could not sustain the game. apple is lower as well. .he stock downgraded to mixed it is not seeing big declines by is down about one third of 1%. analysts say in china, the company is that costs -- had iphones, but that has large jim and through to the second quarter. tha

gundlach. charles: a third party push is gaining momentum.re are conservative activists floating around a lot of names they would like to see on ballots. gary johnson is poised to become the libertarian nominee. joining me to discuss it all, evan, we have two trump supporters. you have gone out and actually said you will take hillary over donald trump. >> i would vote for hillary over donald trump if there is no viable third party alternative. asking me to vote for donald trump is asking me to betray my principles. and principles are only that if you stand by them when it's inconvenient. charles: people will be tweeting me and say what the heck is he talking about. what are these principles and where were they the last 1 years. >> i believe in a smaller more limited government, i don't believe in single payer healthcare. when it comes down to hillary clinton i trust her more to handle the military and our nuclear code than donald trump. there was an article about his hand being tiny and for years he sent the writer of his hand. >> being in th

that's doubleline capital ceo jeff gundlach. you need to watch this tomorrow 8:00 p.m. eastern.foe to now friend? once a gop presidential hopeful, former virginia governor jim gilmore ran against presumptive nominee donald trump as a rival until he dropped out of the race on february 12th. the former governor never really endorsed a candidate, now the question is will he do it now? will he vote for donald trump come november? former governor jim gilmore. easy question for me, maybe harder for you. will you vote for donald trump in november? >> liz, i will vote for donald trump. as a matter of fact, in virginia, i've been asked to chair the registration the get-out-the-vote effort, i'm doing that. liz: wow. >> very well aware of what hillary clinton presidency would be like. we don't want that. it's important for the republicans to win in november and hillary clinton not be president of the united states. liz: but you had fundamental disagreements. you can obviously get over those? >> sure. i understand very well. as a matter of fact, i was the first national candidate to diverge

jeff gundlach yesterday was saying short utilities. about all of those calls in just a minute. , lot of earnings moving individual names, mark topped even as sales revenues fell -- merck topped even a sales revenues fell. the stock is down to and a quarter percent. tesla brushed off a q1 net loss as they announced a production plan that will speed up the 500,000 car a year goal two years by 2018. investors look relatively confident. tesla shares up about 1%. the rest of us are pretty skeptical. fitbit is hurting after saying its earnings will miss estimates. fitbit getting absolutely pummeled in the open, down 13%. alibaba reported its fastest revenue growth in four quarters as they cap spending even as the economy slowed. 423 milliond over active buyers, one of every three people in the most populous nation. they missed earnings by a lot. in ass what they came opposed to 3.52 but investors are shrugging it off. david: moving from high-tech to oil, chesapeake outperformed expectations and slashing jobs, pledging more than 90% of its as

. >> well, jeffrey gundlach has it right when he suggested at sohn conference that apple is not as important to the market as it used to be. the stock is trading at $90, and you are talking about a technical breakdown in the face of a big balance sheet. i don't want to make the trade, because maybe it is less important and a stock that trends between $90 and $95 until josh points out, it figures out what is the next big product. >>> and this morning, donald trump wrapping up a meeting with house speaker paul ryan, and our chief nbc correspondent john harwood has the details. >> scott, this meeting went as well as republicans could have hop hoped. clearly, paul ryan has disagreements with donald trump, and he did not support him saying that he would not fake unity, but he pronounced ate difference of ideas with more in common, and looking to get the ticket together for the fall. this is paul ryan for the news conference. >> i was very encouraged with what i heard from donald trump to d today. i do believe that we are now planting the seeds to get ourselves unified to bridge the g gaps and dif

. >> and what aboutb yesterday that gundlach said that the market is dead money, and that it is not healthythis is a short squeeze that we have seen a massive short squeeze over the last couple of days. >> and i would agree with him talk ta -- talking about the dash for trash names, but in the last week and a half and accelerating this week is not a dash for trash, but it is a run towards the value, and it is the financials, scott. and look ing at the tech stocks and apple, and it is a value stock, wherever it is trading and now near $99, but it is a value stock at $110 and too cheap at $90, and too expensive now at $130, but it is at $99, and looking across at the names moving, and the chip stocks, and the mmh, and the values and the pes are single digits in many cases, so it is not the dash for trash on this leg of the rally to push us up to this next level. >> think about where this market is given what is going on. you are 2% away from the all-time high on the s&p and closer to 3% on the dow, and with have contended with a dollar rally that ripped everyone's earnings to she reds as you

last week, jeffrey gundlach suggested, time to sell the utility index, for example. which has been the biggest winner of the year. >> on the other end of that, they sold chevron, which also has a big dividend, and that's because chevron was a buy two or three months ago. stock went up as crude oil went up, so they turned the position around. one of the other things that was interesting was apple, which was our number one holding for the last couple of years, and the number one traded stock every day. >> apple was the number one traded stock every day? >> not every day, but for the year. it's always going to be in the teen photo of top-traded stocks every day, but it's the number one traded stock for the year. number one held stock. >> is facebook benefiting from the outflows from apple? >> facebook did last month, joe, that's a great question. actually, facebook was a net buy last week, one of our top four buys for the month last month, as people sold apple, they rolled that into facebook. and that turned out to be -- >> apple's kind of like a mood ring already. it w

speakers include larry robbins, jeffrey gundlach and more.esented in partnership with cnbc and raises money to fight pediatric cancer. joining us is kate kelly to break it all down. what's going to happen today? >> we have a lineup, of a dozen heavy hitters and a half a dozen in the next wave conference. david einhorn, always a compelling presenter armed with scores of pithy slides and often harsh critiques of companies. greenlight had an awful 2015 but it now one of of the few hedge funds showing a huge upside. 3% to date. he announced he's bullish on natural gas and the web reviewer yelp. his pick last year a short basket of oil drillers. notably pioneer natural resources aka the mother fraccer, did well. jeff gundlach is equally unvarnished on stage. full of opinions. his presentation comes at a time when the bond market should be poised for better returns and a higher interest rate environment if you get away from energy and certain municipal credits. he was prescient last year with his advice to avoid junk bonds. another player to watch.

. >> and gundlach said he thought tesla was basically a lot toe ticket on their disrupting the future>> a elon musk premium. but it is also one of those consumer brands people are so passionate about. almost like apple if you dialed it back five years. and that is where you get that premium. and we can discuss whether or not that is jufd. >> we got to move on to earnings -- >> go ahead phil. >> real quick. just to people understand at home, the target that's the la has set for production in 2018, a half a million vehicles. the most optimistic analyst on wall street believes the most they will be able to produce is about 340,000 vehicles. so even the most optimistic think they are not going to be able to come anywhere close to that. >> great point and thank you phil. >>> urban outfitters reporting first quarter results in line for earnings. 25 cents a share. that is what analysts were looking for. revenue higher than expected at 763 million. compares to 759 million for consensus. comparable sales of 1%. many analysts the consensus looking for a decrease. so that is a beat a pretty shor

bond king jeff gundlach says he feels this rally is nothing more than a short squeeze.e'll debate coming up here. >> weak numbers from tiffany and express hit the market this morning. but there are three retail stock market with momentum right now. tiffanys now kind of hanging in there though. >> and delta is looking to make those tsa lines shorter this summer. phil lebeau is live in atlanta with details. and he's going wait on a tsa line for us. >> team player. and the one stock in berk sher's beneficial she doesn't agree with.shire's beneficial she doesn't agree with. >> what could it be? we'll find it. steve leisman looks at the improving economic data we've seen. and jackie deing angeles is following stuff. and more. >> two development that is the market has taken notice. first decline in the worst fears of the global economic melt down and u.s. recession and global financial systemic risk and that is because of the improvement in the economic outlook of the data here. let's look at what's happened for to the outlook for gdp in the second quarter. first quarter a me

bond king jeff gundlach says he feels this rally is nothing more than a short squeeze.ate coming up here. >> weak numbers from tiffany and express hit the market this morning. but there are three retail stock market with momentum

you guys have seen the reports, the calls from either goldman for gundlach saying, look, rates headedt true? >> no. actually, i think towards the second half of the year you have a number of probably headwinds turning to tailwinds. obviously three. i don't think you'll see the dollar give a little bit of tail wind back from the strength of the first half. crude prices, we don't need to talk about that. $50. energy won't be a drag on earnings like it was. and actually we think more importantly, joe, the consumer will actually kick in in the second half. you saw a strong retail sales number. a lot of ammunition. savings rates hit a multi-year high last month. home prices exceeded the 2005 peak. you'll see the consumer feel better into the second half. >> mike, keep it simple. the fed orchestrated a big rally in financial assets by using qe. the whole world has been doing it. assets get marked up because there is nowhere else to go. now they're heading in the other direction. inflexion point has been reached. in a tightening cycle. why isn't as simple as the market goes back down or goes

. >> gundlach. start preparing for cloud services in the u.s. president trump is going run up the debt. >> -- he's conservative. people asking afterwards is he endorsing him? >> -- when someone is a master of non consensus thinking looks at the conventional wisdom and says trump's gonna -- that got me interested. >> what was his theory behind it on why the conventional wisdom is all wrong on that. >> he wouldn't -- >> -- landslide -- [inaudible]. >> jeb bush just totally lacked organization and his campaign slogan should have been wtf exclamation point. >> and the -- said get out of the market completely. >> -- [inaudible]. >> -- couple of hieghlights. a couple of huge movers from the morning session. kraton's polymers. a specialty chemical company, up 15% by the close of trading yesterday. here is what roczen had to say in summary. >> it is a specialty chemical company that trades as though it is a commodity company. it is our view that the stock is materially undervalued. we looked relative to his peers, relative to the market. and relative to