talked to gundlach about what the fed should do. you have the president saying don't hike should the fed hike? >> no, i don't think they should the bond market is saying, fed, you've got no way you should be raising interest rates look at the yield curve, flat at 2.70 it's basically saying that in the year 2019 you'll have a cut. in 2020 another cut. >> do you want to give me your perspective on that? >> i think it's very difficult for the fed to make policy that has long and variable lags based upon the market. the fed will remember this, we were at all-time highs on october 3rd. how much has the world exactly changed since then i think what they're going to do is pick a middle ground on this, scott, which is to raise this quarter point. >> dovish. >> and then what'sgoing to happen -- >> it's become now the same. >> two things will be worth following on wednesday when i report this at 2:00, the first will be the decline in the consensus outlook of federal reserve members for the outlook for 2019 the median now calls for three i exp

we have double line ceo jeff gundlach with scott wapner on "the halftime report." it will be a big one given all the news with the market this week >> so much to ask jeff about equities, corporate credit, the fed, global growth let's get to los angeles and a special "half. >>> for the first time in decades every major investment group is on track to close lower for the year stocks, bonds, commodities the markets may be at a crossroads and few people have their finger on the pulse of what could happen next like doubleline's jeffrey gundlach >> there are negative parts, unintended consequences, negative parts to this tax package pushing upward 3% will put a drag on the stock market >> today the bond king is with us live in los angeles for an hour for an exclusive interview. here's scott wapner with jeffrey gundlach >>> welcome to los angeles jeffrey, thank you for having us back >> welcome to doubleline >> almost a year to the day we were last with you >> i think it was december 13th last year. >> that's right. we're still volatile in the market today is another repr

let's start off with you do you agree with gundlach because gundlach said the fed does not raise ratese the economy is weak. >> we're certainly at a risk of a bear market as he talked about. the fed, what's going to happen this week is more or less baked in depends on what the message is after the hike and if it's a message, just like it was in early 2016, we could be off to the races again and enjoy a value led rally like we saw in 2016. >>> what do the markets want to see a dovish hike? is that a sell the news event? >> you already sold the news the markets are discounting what i would say is bad news, right economic slow down in china. europe united states. the markets, stock market and bond market are discounting slow growth in these economies coming forward and the fed is looking at who is in the malls and how much they are spending and say we have to raise rates because the demand for goods and services is high >> every where you look people have come to a conclusion we're heading to a recession "new york times" style section five things that could go wrong next year. >> market h

gundlach doing in the stock market >> gundlach has not had a great record on commodities and on thetock market when it does come to have sometime out of consensus but generally right if you want to look at the bond market, i will go with the guy. >> i want people whether they follow the fed or not as be as fl influential as they like to be on stock >> i mean look, yes, periodically, you got to bow jax. most of the time you got michael jordan that mean it is clear to people. >> gundlach could not hit the curveball. >> if the economy were strong then i would not care. i am not saying there should be no hikes i am saying the crazy world that's the federal reserve is it wrong to be prudent? how can you be wrong being prudent? >> we had this conversation. >> i kind of wished we done a week of it and move on >> people are sick of me i don't care my wife is sick on me and my dog is sick of me. >> people are sick of the stock market let's get back to that >> so. >> wednesday we get our hike and china trade keeps going and it is the end of the year, why would anybody want to put risk ongoing

we have double line ceo jeff gundlach with scott wapner on "the halftime report."n all the news with the market this week >> so much to ask jeff about equities, corporate credit, the fed, global growth let's get to los angeles and a special "half. >>> for the first time in decades every major investment group is on track to close lower for the year stocks, bonds, commodities the markets may be at a crossroads and few people have their finger on the pulse of what could happen next like doubleline's jeffrey gundlach >> there are negative parts, unintended consequences, negative parts to this tax package pushing upward 3% will put a drag on the stock market >> today the bond king is with us live in los angeles for an hour for an exclusive interview.

you heard gundlach i sat with him earlier this week we played the sound already. these are smart people they say don't do it the economy is not strong enough >> these are uber smart people you have to be careful they're not talking their own book they probably wrote it for stan. having been in the room with kevin who is a smart, bright, very young, capable young man. he developed a reputation as a hawk even though he never voted as a hawk. so i think there's a bit of a sort of correction here in terms of how he's trying to present himself. the criticism that i've heard of that article is that he still campaigned to be chairman of the fed. >> you think he has an ulterior motive >> i don't think this. i'm hearing this to be fair to kevin, he did create an image as a hawk even though he didn't vote that way and now i think there's a bit of an effort to correct that image. i also think he's sincere in what he argued in that article i'm not one of those critics the critics are saying he's trying to position himself to perhaps succeed powell under president trump. >> yo

we can't wait to catch up with jeffrey gundlach here is what else is coming up >> straight ahead, a note on a recla rebrander claiming this is on the rise ju fplus, what the najarians stound out this isn't just any moving day. this is moving day with the best in-home wifi experience and millions of wifi hotspots to help you stay connected. and this is moving day with reliable service appointments in a two-hour window so you're up and running in no time. show me decorating shows. this is staying connected with xfinity to make moving... simple. easy. awesome. stay connected while you move with the best wifi experience and two-hour appointment windows. click, call or visit a store today. >>> hi, pete najarian. we're here for you we want to answer your questions. all you have to do is submit those questions to cnbc.com/halftime. we're here for you >> go to cnbc.com/halftime or get us on twitter with t the #askhalftime ♪ i don't want a lot for christmas ♪ >>> shares of lululemon up more than 50% for the year. the stock, though, has hit a rough patch in recent months it's fallen 9% in the last

gundlach he is getting the message to the market when it comes to u.s.e is saying you should not hike because of where we are in terms of the bond market. the bond market is flashing about growth. the bond market is suggesting you may need to cut rates in 2020. as of the capital or a small fee? the eu remains unconvinced about the 2 billion cut in the italian budget, this is the -- the european commission is divided. this when you see you're seeing the prices higher on the burned and the bond markets. those are your markets. let's get to juliette saly standing by with the asian market rep. wrap.ket juliette: the csi closing of the xision weaker, and president -- those hoping president xi would give a boost to markets were disappointed. a number of central bank decisions in the region including the bank of japan, the nikkei was the worst performer, andnese stocks falling india is up .41% in late trade. when we look at the currency market, that is -- the focus was on the yuan. steady.lly giving backs moderates earlier gains. we did see a spike as president

disagree with that you could get another bounce i want to point out you had a guy on this week jeff gundlach and i was critical of him and he's proving to be right i wanted to get that off my chest. this is the most i've seen since the great depression or great recession where there's a lot of different temperaments and i want to cool things by saying i shouldn't have said what i said. >> he's negative, said we're in a bear market. >> i agree with him. i actually have never recommended that since 2007. i think gold works but, most importantly, cognizant of what kevin o'leary says the mixed message was hard do i want to be dependent on the fed? micron bad, carnival cruise bad, fedex bad. housing is terrible. what's working procter & gamble >> this whole notion of what the fed has done this week, jim, you've been critical of the fed, everybody knows that what do you make of powell versus williams with steve it cooled off the market but then we gave the gains and now are negative by 73 on the dow. >> we're going to go lower the fed did hike the constant we are listening, i don't want them to li

doubleline's jeffrey gundlach declaring the bull market dead is he right?if so, is there anything the fed can do to revive it? it's 12:00, noon, this is "the halftime report. >>> a crucial two-day fed meeting begins as stocks recover a little lost ground but the big question remains, is the bull run done? >> i'm pretty sure this is a bear market. >> today debating the calls that are moving the market. doubleline's jeffrey gundlach sounding off on stocks, bonds, and the fed yesterda

jeff gundlach recalls the support of strangers. >> there were people lined up on the fence crying who thought that they had heard that it had burned. i was just, like, people i never seen before and it really just showed it was a little bit of a wake-up call like there's so much that this place means beyond just to us. >> bay area revelations, america's wine country airs this saturday at 10:00 p.m. after "saturday night live." >>> right now at 6:00, a final farewell for the 41st president. george hhw bush's body on the way to the national cathedral. >>> that passes. >> landmark sale overnight. san jose approved that high-profile google expansion. tense moments, protests, arrests and what happens now. >>> the future is here. the first-ever commercial self-driving car taking people to work. how it works and where it's happening. you know the bay area company that's driving the change. we'll tell you about it as "today in the bay" continues right now. very good wednesday morning to you. thanks for joining us. i'm laura garcia. >> i'm marcus washington. gary has the day off and vianey is

and like jeff gundlach said yesterday, we will see lower lows next year. >> you're probably coming into it, we had sven henrich from london, like you, in the short-term, he believes this market could pop what are you seeing that suggests that 6 to 8% end of year rally is it all technicals >> pretty much to be honest with you. you know, the aaii report came out last week and it was at the lowest level since 2013. we're also seeing, you saw the put car ratio got to 1.5 that's usually a level that signals a short-term gain. we saw a rise in the vics, it's still not, like to see it above 40 but you had breadth and the s&p 500, the advanced decline was 12 to 1 negative, not the huge extremes that we see at the bottom of the market but usually the kind that you see at a short-term bottom, and it's exactly what we saw, it's interesting, though the volume wasn't huge, it was big for a monday, and the other only day we have had volume that big, october 29th, the beginning of an 8% rally that we saw the beginning of november. >> leaving us with an optimistic note even if it's just the short-term,

>>> there he is jeffrey gundlach will be with us exclusively on monday from los angeles.ding out there about a year ago exactly we sat down with him, so we're going to get his views now where we are and where we're going. final trade. >> it's a 1.5% return ikhang >> i want royal dutch shell, 1.3 times book. >> you can find opportunities i think in netflix >> great weekend "power lunch" starts now >> the bears are out again trying to add to fears about a global economic slow down, how worried should investors be. and shares of j&j plummeting beijing suspends tariffs on car imports. remember yesterday we told you about robin hood launch checking and savings accounts with 3% yields guess what robinhood didn't give regulators the

stan drunken miller, jeff gundlach, just one man's opinion, that we're entering a tough time.owing down. the tax cuts are done. they didn't have the bang for the back, lasting bang for the buck we thought they would. plus you have an issue where you have potential trade war, throw that all together, and you got some nasty markets here, neil. neil: you think about it, the trade war, whether we come to that or not, resolve it or not, the underlying global economy is slowing down, particularly china, that would be a kick in the pants? just as we score a trade deal they're, you know, trying to just evaporating? >> what type of trade deal are we scoring with them? is it anything much better than we have now? listen, there is a lot to worry about here. but i would just say you can look at the glass half full, half empty. neil: absolutely. >> just let this play for a little bit. don't do anything crazy. neil: i always said, a lot of it half glass in your approach to life. >> that's me. usually the glass is full with vodka in it. just so you know. neil: not even a glass. thank you ver

jeffrey gundlach tweets out yesterday after the fed decision powell made two mistakes he said, auto pilot on qt, quantitative tightening and too much talk about economic quote unquote modeling the stock bear growls on is that what happened? >> 100%. i think jeffrey is right as it relates to qt. we had vinnie voila on the show and he talked about markets in a heightened state of urgency and the market is in a heightened state of urgency and the liquidity is not there on the other side a lot of people are placing blame, pointing fingers as to why we're seeing the elevated volatility you cannot dismiss the fact that the federal reserve went from expanding the balance sheet. buying risk assets and they're paring that back, removing liquidity from the marketplace in a time of the heightened urgency. >> so pete, nasdaq down 20%. from its intraday high on august 30th that's bear market >> yup >> there's bear markets everywhere. >> the s&p is down more than 4%, approaching 5% since that call. just the other day >> well i think steve mentioned that moving it up, i think on the interest rate was so

bond invtor jeff gundlach recently talk about it and jp morgan noted the economic risk due to the increase. and in an interview last night former fed chair janet yellen added her name to the list. >> corporate indebtedness is now quite high. and i think it's a danger that if there is something else that causes a downturn that high levels of corporate leverage could pro long the downturn and in to lots of bankruptcies the non-financial correspondent secretarier >> compani today carry a $9 trillion debt load compared to 4.9 trillion in 2007. that could being bee a heada for corporations should interest rates continue to rise. >>> so why are corporate debt levels rising? it i it something investors should be concerned about yet? joining us colin martin, the director of fixed income strategy at charles schwab thanks for joining us. >> thanks for having me. >> why has corporate debt gone up as much as it has in the the last decade are you nervous yet. >> we are n nervous yet. risks are growing but for now ner relatively well contained. we have seen the huge debt in corporate debt outstandin bec

fnd there are high profile investors, the j gundlach to name one. feels we are heading to a recession b2020. >> i don't think we head to a recession by 2020. what i think is important is that the u.s. economy is slowing. that's not a bad thing. 2018 was a year of very good growth in the united states. but tough policy. higher interest rates and taxes. and 2019 in our mind is going to be a swer growth environment but a better policy virmt. that actually shapes upo be a better time for markets. in order for there to be a recession by 2020 you would need to see pretty high inflation in the united states, a fed that's significantly raising interest rates, another significant leg of dollar strength. and given how benign the inflation back drop is and the d is pointing towards a tadual rate tightening cycle, i find it hard believe that there is to be a recession in 2020. >> very brian levitt with oppenheimer funds. thanks forhaoining us. >> you. >> well the decline in both market and economic sentiment did show up in the most recent cnbc all america surve

stocks down nearly 450 jeffrey gundlach is life on monday looking rwd hfoartois remarks "power lunch"back in two >>> welcome back and this is the stock story of the day. shares of johnson & johnson are tanking since their worst day in 2008 a bombshell report this morning saying j&j new abouts asbestos n their talc j&j responding saying this is absurd says studies of more than 100,000 men and women shows talc does not cause cancer. goes on to say thousands of independent regulators prove our talc has never contained asbest asbestos joining us is the "reuters" reporter who broke the story lisa, welcome. >> thank you >> what would you like to say to the charges this is a conspiracy theory you're reporting this morning. >> look, our report on the fact that j&j was aware of small amounts of asbestos in its talc, in its baby powder, in the ore it mined in vermont to make baby powder is based entirely on their documents. many of the documents are posted now. if people are curious they can read them on our website, roiters.com. >> did the company know there was asbestos and specifically decid

don't hike, this is what gundlach says.ople complain to me, no, bob, that could sell off the market because of fear that the fed sees slow growth out there nobody can agree the fed is going to do this, what happens to the market we all kind of know. now everyone has a big food fight because nobody can agree of what would be bullish or bearish for the market the dow is just up the highs today. >> thank you, bob, let's head to rick santelli right now. >> hi david. if you open the chart up to the last fed meeting in november on a two-yr note yield, you can see that we drifted down the only difference is some wiggles in the yield curve and actually since the last meeting there was a flattening but we stabilized so to speak dollar index is getting hit pretty high. lost the 97 handled big time all of this is in response of what happens today at 2:00 eastern. do understand that all the maturely outside of two-yr are melting a little bit lower we traded 280. 281 is huge, closing basis is the trigger for many of the huge technical s

also coming up on cnbc our colleagues state side will speak with doubleline capital ceo jeffrey gundlachts have been open for two hours this is a down day a down start to the week the stoxx 600 is down. we've got a keen focus on retail this morning that is after asos profits warns. i want to take you to the retail sector asos is down more than 40% this morning. this is driving a huge selloff across the real tail space zalando down, boohoo and next down as well this is driving questions about consumer confidence not just in the u.k. but around europe asos cited talks about what's going on outside of the u.k. this is about the retail space >> speaking of retailers, swedish retailer h&m has a 6.5% increase they're due to publish the fourth quarter earnings in january did not comment on the numbers. they are on track for the third year of profits as the company struggles to keep up with online competition. more bad news from the retail sector. >>> now meanwhile abb has reached a deal to sell the majority of its power grid division to japan's hitachi. the swiss engineering group said it will

gundlach >>> welcome back to street signs, the european commission has asked italy to cut euros from commission is worried that the italian government is implementing temporary rather than permanent measures to reduce its annual deficit. meanwhile, eu commissioner for economic affairs, says brussels wants to avoid sanctioning italy over its budget. speaking in an interview, he said rome should be able to implement its policies without breaking eu budget rules and also over here, uk prime minister theresa may will take her brexit agreement back before parliament by mid january. she will let mps debate and vote on the deal on january 14th, more than a month after she cancelled the vote which would have left her heavily defeated now she insisted the eu had offered more clarification on the northern irish backstop, and her government could seek more legal assurances from brussels. >> we are also looking closely at new ways of empowering the house of commons to ensure that any provision for a backstop has democratic legitimacy. i can confirm today that we intend to return to the meaningfu

but we've got 13 trading days left in 2018, so-called bond king, jeffrey gundlach says i will issue ayou ain't seen nothing yet. predicting that the s&p 500 will hit fresh lows. paul tudor jones says we'll see a lot of volatility and market cost move up 15%, or down. way to take a stand. jeff sica, what do you think, we're well off the highs of the session? >> my opinion from the beginning is that technology was drastically overpriced from 20 to 30%. i anticipate we're going to see a lot of declines in technology but i think there is a lot of this back and forth because there is a lot of money coming in through share buybacks. there is a lot of headline-driven appreciation in the market, so get ready for volatility, get ready for big declines, followed by big surges. know that overall, i think the market, if the market doesn't hold up, i think we have another bottom. >> dow up 168. we had been up 458. >> right. liz: this announcement coming in the three minutes, uk. what do you think a trader or investor do if the market opens down on it or up? do you just sit tight? >> liz i think in

who is more bearish, you or jeffrey gundlach, you bond kings and princes have a lot of doom and gloom when it comes to the economic outlook right now explain your call. >> i mean, look, i think it's pretty apparent by now that everybody is awakened to the fact that we have way too much leverage in the system, and this recent correct that we've gotten in stocks has been associated with a pretty hard selloff in the bond market. you know, we've seen it especially in junk bonds and bank loans, but we also have seen it in investment grade credit, and that's the prelude that's the achilles' heel of this expansion, that credit expansion has been too rapid companies are overlevered and we sit at record high leverage levels in corporate america based on percent of gdp or free cash flow or any measure that you want to look at, so ultimately any kind of economic slowdown is going to spill into the corporate bond market, and i think we're going to get a downturn that looks very similar to what we saw back in 2001 and 2002 where we saw a wave of corporate faults whether through enron or worldcom o

company impact the market today and in the weeks and months ahead earlier this week bond king jeffrey gundlach in telling the fed to stand pat >> the bond market is basically saying, you know, fed, y

gundlach has told our scott wapner that the federal made a mistake, sounded like they were on outpilot on qt and talked about the economic modeling what's your take >> i think that's exactly right. the love affair of the market with chairman powell, he was professed to be a pragmatist and he sounds more like an academic which he started at the last quarterly meeting back in september talking about r-star and neutrality and that was the focus of the press conference and everybody is talking about this being a dovish hike, but quantitative tightening being on autopilot i think that's the scary part if you look at when the market really fell apart during his words, it was all this talk about autopilot. this is not a tested program of quantitative tightening. to put it on autopilot i don't think it's like an airplane where question fly on autopilot and all feel comfortable. it's like tesla trying to solidify the autopilot and the market started to ask is this actually dovish by continuing a tightening program and really sluffing it off >> he didn't say the word autopilot, but he did say i

. >>> we're live from los angeles with jeffrey gundlach. >> i do believe the narrative will develop that there are negative parts, unintended consequences to the negative parts of this tax package. >> 10-year will head up to 3%. pushing up for 3% will put a drag on the stock market >> a bitcoin drop. >> i think if you short bitcoin today you'll make money. >>> now find out how he's positioned for 2019. >> i said i need your best idea -- >> an updade on the trade he said to stay in for your children's education when the hftalime report turns to l.a this isn't just any moving day. this is moving day with the best in-home wifi experience and millions of wifi hotspots to help you stay connected. and this is moving day with reliable service appointments in a two-hour window so you're up and running in no time. show me decorating shows. this is staying connected with xfinity to make moving... simple. easy. awesome. stay connected while you move with the best wifi experience and two-hour appointment windows. click, call or visit a store today. >>> i'm steve weiss with the halftime report. send

tried adviser peter navarro will join santelli plus, wapner will sit down exclusively with jeff gundlachwk on the street" is back in a moment. >>> the best performing sector this year catching a cold in the last few weeks find out what that is and why some are calling it a buying opportunity on tradingnation.cnbc.com more "squawk on the street" coming up. at fidelity, our online u.s. equity trades are just $4.95. so no matter what you trade, or where you trade, you'll only pay $4.95. fidelity. open an account today. >>> rick san telly a special edition of the santelli exchang exchange. >> i'd like to welcome white house trade policy director peter navarro. >> thank you. >> when you and your boss donald trump look at the way the stock markets have been behaving since october, all three indices doing better than their counterparts but down on the year, what do you see is the order of culprits that are giving us this volatility and questioning what had been the recovery and a solid stock market backed up by a solid economy. >> i don't know if you can call it a culprit but i think the predom

. >> and gundlach has a chilling warning. >> i think we have the first leg down the second leg down is usually mu painful >> the closing bell starts right now. >>> we are currently down 447 points seeing significant losses at nearly 2% lower >> yes >> 2 dow having since the third quarter of 2011. the nasdaq could be since 2008 let's see. bob is at the floor of the new york stock exchange. let's start with you >> let me show you the s & p 500. it was the floor we were trading 2,600 to 2,800 for most of the quarter. not anymore. we hit 2,600 today and the market could not get over that these become very important when the macro situation becomes important they become more important. we saw selling in winters today and a little bit of a change in tone they were at 52 week highs look at aes. it is a typical utility name it is down 6%. that was a new 52 week high. avalonbay is one that is out there. that is also at a 52 week high not long ago most of the other ones are down 3 or 4% here we try the one that should have rallied was of course the ba bas a nice impressive rally overall. it too

diversification >> jim, you were using the word bear market to describe the action way ahead of gundlachour or five s, six weeks ago. where are you right now on the prospect of recession and earnings recession and goldman calls it liquidity >> i like goldman just because everybody is keeping up with it. >> look, i think there is no recession, i think it is where 2011 was over sold where you are dealing with the october and november period. i think that we'll have a slow down to paper and athletes and all sorts of data and pricing. all stuff that powell has to start using instead of these models and realizing they are relevant there is some reason to think you know what why did i pull the trigger? oil is going backup. that's the best seller >> yes >> and oil is up today >> indeed. >> jim, try to rest a little bit over the weekend >> just tell them it is a bunch of people talking. >> i want to catch some of this. >> okay. we are off there tomorrow. >> yes >> you are >> okay. >> jim, thank you. >> thank you, guys, appreciate it >> a couple of new names over in tesla, we'll at ttell you who

. >> gundlach thinks we're in a bear market. >> he said stick to bonds, i think. then he goes crazy on twitter. i have no comment. >> we have a bear market that could turn around quickly. >> if it turns around it's not a bear market. because we haven't hit the levels, it does feel scary, though, nobody is looking this as a garden variety. >> i think all of this could actually, we'll see what happens tomorrow tomorrow is the big day. >> because of the fed. >> because of the fed. we're going to talk more about that in a moment let's look at what happened overnight in asia. you'll see the nikkei also closed down. it was down by about 1.8% and stocks in shanghai down by 8/10 of a percent and if you take a look at what's happening in europe with early trading things are looking mixed there the ftse is down by 4/10 of a percent. stocks are up in italy, down in spain. finally, take a look at treasury yields, too. treasury yields right now for the ten-year, 2.82%. that yield has come under more pressure adds we continue to kind of guess what the fed is going to do. trying