therey gundlach is putting chance of recession in the next year at as high as 90%. he said the u.s.l debt will likely grow to $30 trillion in two or three years. if oil stayshat below $30, you're going to have defaults in the high-yield bond market. he argues downgrade should be coming fast and furious. nejra: japan's government and ruling coalition are considering a cash handout as part of a coronavirus stimulus package. bank of japan governor kuroda said the central bank will support the economy toward a v-shaped recovery. to, i want to circle back what we have heard from jeffrey gundlach in terms of default in the high-yield bond market. you are starting to initiate names in the energy sector. >> we are looking at names here in asia. corrections, there is definitely opportunity. it purely from a valuation perspective and looking specifically for some high day-to-day is at the moment. have a lotcould further to go in terms of downside. evaporate.eld could extreme circumstances require extreme measures. how do you mitigate that risk? are trying to focus right now on really, stocks

we want to give you some headlines from jeffrey gundlach's webcast.ome comments, saying this is the end of the longest postwar expansion. he put the odds of recession at 90%. stimulus under discussion, he said, could be prone to abuse. he also said the stock market is in a world of hurt. jeff gundlach is currently talking about gold, saying that precious metal could hit a new high. whiche a look at apple, says that stores outside of china will remain closed until further notice. it is no longer holding to the opening. this depends on what rules local governments put in place by that time. amazon giving priority to shipping household staples and medical supplies. the world's largest online retailer has been struggling to deal with demand. amazon will not accept shipments from third-party sellers in other product categories at least through april 5. elon musk is signaling that tesla's auto plant in california will remain open. he is telling employees to come to work only if they are comfortable in doing so. whetherot said employees who do not come in wi

goldman sachs earth weakening one point 5%. -- hey gundlach puts the says we are completely unprepared the longest -- it is clear a global recession is here. the question is how long will it last and how deep will it run. taylor: annmarie hordern, thank you for joining us. i want to bring in matthew luzzetti from deutsche bank. he is still with us. fourth quarter -- first quarter gdp falling the most ever. how much pent-up demand will there be in h2? matt: i think before these recent developments, we were constructive on the economy, on the consumer. if you look at the aggregate consumer balance sheet, it is the best on record, although there were a lot of differences -- i think what you are seeing is, we will have significant fiscal stimulus, the packages being considered are significant. you have a monetary policy that is setting up the financial crisis using levels and that will continue. in the second half of the year, you should have the benefit of the phase one trade deal, boeing production may get back online. there is a lot of reason to think that second-half growth picks up an

jeffrey gundlach sees the chance of recession in the united states at 90%.> for more details on the stories. up, sticking with a veteran. hsbc names the interim president as its chief, ending a seven-month search. this is bloomberg. ♪ anna: welcome back to. the european open. . 7:42 in london. it looks negative at the start of the trading day and fiscal stimulus coming from many parts of the globe. will it get to the parts that matter? we are hearing from the french talking about how france might see a flattening of the virus curve in eight to 12 days. if you are looking at expectations as to where this goes how quickly in europe. bankinglk about the sector. hsbc has need to be acting ceo as its permanent chief, ending a seven-month search in which the lender approached three high-profile outsiders. joining us with the details is alisa martin, who covers finance. good to speak to you. -- was this a foregone conclusion after we had heard a number of other names have been approached and it didn't work out? they look far and wide but what we are seeing in the e

to suggest that the jeffrey gundlach theory might be right i keep looking at the credit markets, looking at investment grade. you're seeing spread are narrowing. investment grade for technology, for consumer discretionary, and for the senior level of financials so that's a good indicator, but i caution everyone just keep it simple right now. very slow steps in what's going to be a process. >> weiss made good points, too, that the numbers and the words i use are, they're going to be hard to bear you listen to governor cuomo and it's just shocking in many ways, stunning and it's saturday about where this appears to be going in new york city and all of that is going to be filtering through the investment world, as all of you are thinking about the market and the questions we've been asking about where this is really going in the near-term for certain jim lebenthal, how do you see things you've gotten some commentary here i've mentioned some of the notes that are out there bernanke was on cnbc this morning, talking about the possibility for a short-term downturn, that matches kind of what bu

we just had jeff gundlach on nobody understands, other than bill gross in my opinion, ohio this big toy works the problem is, the toy he understands perfectly is grown central bank pushed everybody into risk. of course, corporates became the cannoli of the investment class. the sweet roll of the investment class. they loved it. then when rates go down in treasure rids, if corporates didn't move, when rates go down, the spread rises think about it,corporate, you want to issue them, you get out of them that exaggerated the widening of the spread the cycle is the fed they created the appetite for this and when it goes sour, they keep giving them the same drug and they just don't lose the risk they just become more comfortable and do it all over again. jeff understands that, so he said the fed's doing the right thing? are they all they're doing is keeping the toy operating that doesn't do what it was designed to do in the beginning. kelly, back to you >> your cannoli analogy to corporates reminds me, i do have a follow-up question for you, what are we seeing in spreads? there's different ki

we'll do it tomorrow with jeffrey gundlach >>> coming up, jon najarian's options trade in the unusual activity he's tracking the volatilitvolay we'll get his trades coming up >>> you can always watch or listen to us live on the go on the cnbc app dow right noup 5w 80 halftime is back after this. - at southern new hampshire university, we believe in education built for all people. - [woman] snhu was the best experience of my life. - [man] without snhu, i wouldn't be the leader i am today. - [woman] i graduated high school 19 years ago. i still finished. - [man] in the military, you feel that sense of accomplishment. that's what snhu is. - you will march from this arena and say to the world.. i did it. - [woman] you did it. i love you. - [graduate] i love you too. apps except work.rywhere... why is that? is it because people love filling out forms? maybe they like checking with their supervisor to see how much vacation time they have. or sending corporate their expense reports. i'll let you in on a little secret. they don't. by empowering employees to manage their own tasks, paycom free

and vermont senator bernie sanders will now go head to head warren has not yet backed either >>> gundlachoints out that the outbreak could tip the u.s. into recession. >> one of the most predig tiff aspects for recession is when youget unemployment range. if they go above the five-year moving average, you are done you can almost put a fork in the economy. you have to watch. if this slow down of small business of travel and leisure and the like will lead to big problems consumer confidence has been resilient at historically high levels >> u.s. government will release nonfarm jobs report. unemployment rate is forecasted at 3.5% as average rate is seen rising 0.3% on a monthly basis joined now by our guest. isn't this a point that won't show some of the things investors are focused on now >> i think that is right people eagerly anticipate the nonfarm payrolls the jobs report is backward looking and won't be much help to investors >> so each day bringing fresh news of the conference being handled, the impact on a jobs market in a country where one in nine workers is working in hospitality, th

maybe today or next week, which jeffrey gundlach says it is the best thing to own. .nd the euro swiss we have seen massive demand for the swiss franc. it is up to percent for the year, continues to grind lower. deutsche bank says it may hit parity. that would be a huge move, something we have not seen since 2015 when the s&p lifted that currency cap. .att: thanks very much of course, and murray as a new york forest covering everything. wall street right now. let's get to the first word news. i will do that. the number of reported coronavirus cases around the world is nearing 100,000 according to official statistics . over 3300 people have now died and around 55 thousand have recovered. the world health organization is threatening to name countries that are not doing enough to fight the outbreak -- name and shame. central bank coordination over the virus outbreak is extremely high, at least according to the bank of canada governor. the central bank followed the fed in cutting by 50 basis points. he says there is a premium to acting in concert on policy but admits that some central bank

guess balance sheet expansion can be good, but if we're talking about zero and negative rate, jeff gundlachaid it's destroyed the japanese banking system how do you factor that in? >> i think i've been on your show earlier last decade talkin about japan light and you can pull that up online. to some degree, the banks have been through quantitative ease lg and all that and a big difference is the ability of banks to control costs so half the costs are employee costs and so people on wall street will be making a lot less money. people in the high income jobs are making a lot less money and also technology is allowing banks to be a lot more efficient. that's a huge change versus the japanese banking system and i think the policy response in the u.s. tends to be a lot more dynamic and then what took place in japan so we'll take that back off the shelf and bay ty the wa, the bank dividef yields are supr safe the federal reserve assumed armageddon would happen before they allowed banks to pay off their dividend if you look at yields versus the ten year, these are nice bond proxies, so this super

jeffrey gundlach with us with rates and where your money is headed and the investment committee debatingime to buy stocks or be aware of bigger drops we'll also find out from our gang what moves they are making in this market all at noon "on the half." see you then >> looking forward to that meantime, looking to buy a bottle of purel? it could cost you a whopping $500 amazon and other online retailers are struggling to deal with potential price gouging as some sellers on their platforms are trying to capitalize on the coronavirus crisis, charging eye-popping prices for products such as facemasks and lysol wipes. joinin >> good morning. thanks for having me, really appreciate it. >> bob, i am curious about this because there are normally three components to price gouging as i understand it. is it a period of emergency? do there need to be price ceilings on these items? are they necessary items that's the piece i wonder about here is hand sanitizer a necessary item or might it be okay -- i mean, not necessarily ethically, but legally okay for people to take advantage of demand for a partic

the nightmare is occurring >> what do we make then of stei stifel looking for a 15% rally, gun gundlach not shorting. why are there these little pockets of not optimism but bullishness? >> somebody called yesterday in the lightning round about wendy's. wendy's was at 6, it went to 9 6? a lot of companies are priced for insolvency or were two days ago. i think when we got to those levels, people say let's take a fly. maybe if the economy gets restarted, a lot of these buys are we have to start thinking about when things get better here's what we have to do. i don't mind that thinking the problem is we're not getting better i think we're getting worse. as we get more knowledge of things, one of the most informed discussions i watched last night was on facebook when mark zuckerberg was interviewing dr. fauci. we're still trying to get our arms around the idea that the younger people are infecting the older people we're not yet geared at all for what happens when the older people go to the hospital and there's not enough ventilators those are the stories that will define this weekend. i don

be careful out there >> you as well everybody else, that's jeffr gundlach joining us there. >> there's a sea of liquidity out there, that's okabvious, bu the leverage is not accepting the liquidity, and those clamoring to buy treasuries, unless that correlation breaks, equities don't go higher >> a good farmer >> ready to buy, sorry we're not doing it today, we're days away, scott. i know you hold my feet to the fire we'll talk more. >> okay. >> yeah, we say elevated measures of cash we can't rule it out >> abd, air products >> thanks. >> i'm short to semi smh, i hope i lose money on it >> stocks are down 950 "the exchange" starts now. >>> thank you, scott welcome to "the exchange," everybody, i'm kelly evans and we have major wall street as coronavirus spreads. the dow is down 952 points that's a 3.5% drop the downturn, of course, follows a massive rally yesterday that saw the dow post its second biggest point gain ever. but now we're back in correction from the major averages meaning that's a drop of 10% from recent highs. and this selloff has every sector and every dow stock lower.

i think cultural change in barred roolz the change of gundlach whenever a risk with whack people willn something bad happens. >> to the point this is a first test, of the business roundtable, and stakeholders honesty about it but also ins, too tight labor market lay someone off you may need three months from now. maria: good the point. >> going to cost more to retrain. >> workers just fine, the overall number, upwards, issue including revisions, adding 360,000 jobs hard to find negative in this report, if you were going to pick one you would say. maria: retail. >> 45,000 government jobs, added. [laughter]. >> -- producing -- >> we see bifurcated area. >> good point lisa jump in lisa ericsson. >> i think just a really nice report maria i think the most comforting thing to me even though we may see continued economic impact based on spread of the virus again giving us a nice cushion going in i agree with with some of the other points that have been made around what is really going to be important going forward, a lot of it going to be around the sentiment and confidence whether people c

if you flip up the board and look at a chart i am showing inside my terminal, jeff gundlach is tweeting that the 30 year is really where all the big moves are happening this morning. we are down now 42 basis points to below 1% for the first time on the 30-year, and we knew on friday it was blowing through three standard deviations. my math does not go that far. i cannot count the number of standard deviations. a 42 basis point move on the long end represents -- seeing spreads really blowout high-yield as well as id reverberating on banks is energy. taylor: we have to be careful to compare the high-yield and the investment-grade spreads low out to previous prices that we have seen. this is not too thousand 8, 2 thousand nine, so when you see 2008,s -- this is not 2009. that is where you are seeing a lot of the problems. we have seen a few of the fallen angels. can makeee how those sure how they can be retaining some of that debt. alix: taylor riggs, thank you very much p the backdrop is coronavirus, which keeps spreading, worldwide cases passing 108,000 is stephen engle. more action is b

if we go into negative rates, there will be capital destruction en masse >> gundlach calling for a -- >> he's been predicting what the market is saying >> so that's it's telling you essentially. whether it's true or not, that's what the market is braced for. >> it is signaling at least they're moving at a faster pace and hopefully instills some sort of confidence. clearly the move this week didn't they're moving quickly to do whatever they can do. >> the market usually gets there first, the fed is following. i don't know if that would be one for one. a couple oceans about today, ten-year note yield made a new low. the s&p 500 did not. it still held above the levels from friday. i'm going to stick with my plan all week, with not extrapolating a single day's move. the lows to the s&p over the last several days, we basically kind of settled back into that same zone, and then refused to go lower i don't know if that's decisive? i doubt that it is, but it's telling you the bond market and stock market have gone a distance into pricing in a dimmer scenario. >> where do you want to be in a l

jeffrey gundlach, you have seen carl icahn go in and buy higher stakes, more stakes, more equity stakes in the companies he believes in and warren buffett has been doing the same with delta. i think there's a belief that yes, it's dependent on how the coronavirus is maybe controlled and contained but if you have this type of liquidity, the fed again is in the market and providing this type of support along with the government is going to be a buying opportunity as you heard from mark cuban as well. neil: yeah. that's what he hopes. gary kaltbaum, normally we like to see market downdrafts punctuated by companies bravely stepping in either to commit to buying back their own stock or you are hearing top executives are doing just that themselves. now that there is a distinction here between that right that companies have and those that accept help from the american taxpayer, whether they are limited there, but as a market guy yourself, leaving the rescue that might come from taxpayers, that's what you need, or early signs of evidence you need to get us out of something like this. companies

jeffrey gundlach says we will get back to 2700 for the s&p 500 and that's a year end prediction from credit suisse. credit suisse said we might hit new records in early 2021 once again so they are penciling in a level of 3100 for the s&p 500. if that's true, that would be a near 40% gain from monday's levels. that would be very impressive. as you mentioned, we are looking at buying into equities. people are actually buying into volatility as well since we have no idea what direction the markets take. the last three times we saw the s&p gain 5%, they usually gave it all back in the preceding sessions so let's see if we can hold on to this advance. i think that's the key right now. stuart: it is indeed. dow is up 600 points, reaching 21,300. green arrows for the dow, nasdaq and s&p. now, we like to keep track of the big retailers. news from target. lauren, i think they are paying more to employees? lauren: they are not participating in this rally which is interesting. the stock is down by over 2%. this is what's happening. yes, they are treating their workers nicely. they are cleaning