. >> you as well that's jeffery gundlach. the way bond yields have moved and the implications for the fed. he expects 25 basis points in a week or so, which is against the grain from what's talked on wall street today barclays today says 0 or 25, goldman sachs has gone to none next week from jan hatzius as well on that note, let's get to our twitter question of the day. what will the fed do will they pause? will they go 25 as mr. gundlach or 50 basis points please vote and we'll share the results later on. >>> we're just getting started here on "closing bell. up next icapital her instant reaction to jeffrey's call there and her forecast for the banks, where she's seeing the biggest possible risks and bright spots in this market live from the new york stock exchange you're watching "closing bell" on cnbc. i remember when i first started flying, and we would experience turbulence. i would watch the flight attendants. if they're not nervous, then i'm not going to be nervous. financially, i'm the flight attendant in that situatio

jeffrey gundlach. you'll always remember buying your first car. can help you build the future you imagine. go. go lights. go big city lights. go spotlights. go stadium lights. emerson software helps clean energy become reliable electricity. go “good night." go boldly. emerson. ♪♪ ♪ a bunch of dead guys made up work, way back when. ♪ ♪ it's our turn now we'll make it up again. ♪ ♪ we'll build freelance teams with more agility. ♪ ♪ the old way of working is deader than me. ♪ ♪ we'll scale up, and we'll scale down ♪ ♪ before you're six feet underground. ♪ ♪ yes, this is how, this is how we work now. ♪ as a business owner, your bottom line ♪ before you're six feet is always top of mind. so start saving by switching to the mobile service designed for small business: comcast business mobile. flexible data plans mean you can get unlimited data or pay by the gig. all on the most reliable 5g network, with no line activation fees or term contracts... saving you up to 75% a year. and it's only available to comcast business internet customers. so boost your b

>> i have a lot of sympathy for what gundlach said yesterday. many who are pessimistic about the regional banking crisis are claiming the situation does not end until the fed cuts rates. the regional banking model is under a lot of stress for that reason. they can't compete with money markets offering for-5% yield. the front end of the yield curve is very and don't hurt -- very inverted. it is not profitable if that stays. until the fed cuts rates, this situation will continue. tightening of credit standards, with powell and many fed members warning us that is coming and will hit economic growth. that will continue until the fed cuts. that is the prism through which gundlach is seeing the situation. tom: we have fed speakers later this week, and the pce index as well. how will markets position towards the end of this week. it is remarkable to think that swaps markets are pricing for .2% by the end of the year. >> we get pce on friday, but because we have gotten ppi and cpi we have a good estimation of where it will come. a lot of the market's at

gundlach is right and most of the people who have this view will be right. we could have something ahistorical and we say that was a one-off . that's possible. but the probability is not on our side. that being said, wealthy people do really well when interest rates go up. wealthy people don't go, oh, no, i'll never get a mortgage now. they don't care about that. the money they're making on their portfolios when rates go up 400, 500 basis points, far outweighs the negative consequences of what happens, let's say, when a middle class family has to pay more to get a mortgage. the early '80s, wealthy people made a fortune and that's who owns the stock market. so there is a scenario where we fall into recession in the second half of this year but the stock market holds up. the equity that will tell you if that is right will be apple. nobody is throwing their iphone away because it's too expensive. it can ride out a recession because it's a consumer staple for wealthy people and they're not affected in the same way from the tightening of lending that middle class

been watching the two year we'll get to all of that in just a moment implications for the fed, what gundlach told me yesterday about that, what others are saying about that others are making moves that are pretty interesting in the market jim lebenthal, you bought the kre, the regional bank etf, you bought first republic, too, as regional banks rebound in a very big way today. take me through those, please. >> i will. scott, not trying to be a hero here at all. what i do, and you know this, i analyze companies, look at their financial statements on friday, which sounds like ancient history, clients calling moving amounts of money into the investment accounts of various ones that we use that triggered me. first republic as a representative of the regional banks but also the regional bank that has the cross hairs on it right now is a good bank it's doing good banking. it takes in deposits half of the assets on its balance sheet are mortgages. to people with an average fico score of 780 and loan to value of 6 0%. that's good banking and that's what you want banks to do. when everything went dow

never forget the fed follows the t two-year it is between slim and none gundlach said to me. should the employment report this friday meet or exceed expectations, slim is leaving town what is your reaction to that, this idea we need to and do we need to get our arms around the idea of 50s coming >> i think you have to absolutely, you know, leave that as a very open possibility and by the way, you know that move in the two-year yield happened really since the employment report. yes, it happened that the fed meeting was two days before that but it has been because of the date it has been because the economy has proven stronger. the market today, there was this possibility. i don't think this was anything radically different than what was anticipated, but what it was is it got us off that mode of thinking and as i've been saying, all through the first part of this year, okay, the fed is going to 25, that means you're six or seven weeks between every quarter point raise, no big deal, we're slowing down, coasting to the end. this interrupts that idea a little bit it causes you to

recession and jeffrey gundlach on cnbc said he expects a contraction in u.s. growth within months and the fed to be cutting rates in the later half of this year. we all know how painful bear market rallies have been in the past year. perhaps we are set up for one within these heavily discounted banking stocks. dani: everyone getting punished every day it feels like. that is bloomberg's valerie tytel. i mentioned the big rally in oil, the biggest since october. the driver behind it, a disruption to supply from turkiye that added to the easing concerns over the banking crisis that allowed oil to rally. let's get over to our energy reporter stephen. tie these two narratives together for me, the banking crisis and the turkish oil story. stephen: the turkish oil story, there is that dispute between turkiye and one of the autonomous states and iraq about shipping 400,000 barrels a day from a turkish port. that is not happening now. they tightening supply the markets. that was one of the bullish factors pushing prices up. at the same time, silicon valley bank being p

. >> i mean i'm thinking of, you know, gundlach who will be on with me this afternoon saying the fed follows the 2-year and we know what's happened with that you know, a 100 basis points collapse in the 2-year over a handful of days. what does this mean to you about the markets themselves are you much more cautious today than you were even seven days ago? >> you know, honestly scott, i have mixed emotions. you know i try to shoot everybody straight we haven't changed a lot in our portfolio. on the one hand, i say, the preconditions are better today, right, for our forecast going forward. why? because rates are coming down. i think the rate path, right, future interest rate hikes will be ameliorated and our companies, the economy was doing just fine. what everybody was concerned about is that the fed has caused 12 of the last 10 recessions and we're going to do the same thing here and they were going to overshoot. if that camp i would tell you when we look at the slowing of economic activity combined with the fed slowing of future rate hikes, maybe even stopping altogether, that is ve

just getting some lines coming through from jeffrey gundlach.that 10 year yields will go lower if they drop below 3.37%. we have seen the yield on the 10 year at 3.4%. it is the backdrop generally of the treasury market, declining as credit suisse's rescue and offer of dollar liquidity have been dampened on the haven assets and after witnessing banking stocks getting shaken up, to say the least, in recent days. haslinda: of course, we are tracking bank stocks on the back of hsbc, slumping more than 5%. indian banks are also under pressure. the nifty bank index is currently down. we have been talking about that at1 bonds that are under pressure. it is a wake-up call that at1 bonds carry real risk, and that is the concerns and markets right now. we have benchmarks in india in negative territory. plenty more ahead. keep it here with us. this is bloomberg. ♪ the first time your sales reached 100k with godaddy was also the first time your profits left you speechless. at the counter or on the go, save 20% with the lowest transaction fees and keep more

dani: i was just going to say this is exactly what gundlach tweeted when it comes to the u.s., that ino do this, they will have to print more money. when we talk about different tolerances to support the banking system, it does mean going back on some of the financial condition tightening that these central banks try to do. how much risk is there if what the boe and fed have to do to print more money to stabilize this market. how powder below -- how palatable is that? octavio: they're having no choice, but they are stuck in a situation where the whole thing looks schizophrenic in the sense that the fed has been increasing interest rates, tightening monetary conditions, and now they will have to loosen again for the banking sector. at looks like they have the foot on the accelerator and the break at the same time, so it will be a bumpy ride as a result of that. there is no good way out for them. we will not necessarily see more bank runs this week or this month, but kick the can down the road a bit. the losses on these bond portfolios will have to redound -- root out and it will either

. >>> the so-called bond king jeffrey gundlach says it's very likely the fed will race its basis pointsy 50 points. you can find out more on cnbc pro. >>> some company news now. shares of logitech slumped the pc peripherals says it now expects revenue in the first half of 2024 to come in between 1.8 and $1.9 billion and operating income of about $190 million. >>> continental posted a 95% drop in full year net income t it says it expects higher sales and earnings this year the german car parts manufacturer booked 3.3 bill eubillion euros in extra parts nikolai setzer will be on at 10:45 to talk more about it. >>> china sales plunged by half. adidas lowered its dividend, adding that losses of its partnership with kanye west will continue into this year. the big question on everybody's mind when it comes to adidas, what are they going to do with all of this y zee inventory >> they're looking at it it's still an open question. that could weigh on the current earnings by this year by some 500 million euros. clearly what adidas is saying, they have yet to get rich off the problems he's able t

prominent market voices seeing the same thing we're talking jeffrey gundlach, carl icahn brenda, how do the people in silicon valley think about that and what do you think about this hike >> i think if they don't hike and wait until may and re-evaluate and potentially hike in may if things calm a little bit, i think that message, in my participate of the woods, would be well received and an acknowledgement two bank failures and one bank saved by a consortium of other banks. so three banks that have needed either serious help or have completely gone away that, in my mind, is meaningful enough for the fed to potentially pause this month and then re-evaluate in may should things calm. the narrative on inflation, shelter is such a gigantic component and it's been the stickiest part if we think how regional banks are involved, they're incredibly involved they do a lot of lending on the consumer side. i do think that we may see slowing and prices come down especially if relatively decent rate financing is no longer available in some markets because the regional banks aren't lending >> some

. >> theú%i question, do you agree withÑiu■ jeffrey gundlach. 75% said yes, they are. flight attendants. if they're not nervous, then i'm not going to be nervous. financially, i'm the flight attendant in that situation. the relief that comes over people once they know they've got a guide to help them through, i definitely feel privileged to be in that position. ♪♪ what do you see on the horizon? i definitely feel privileged uncertainty? or opportunity. whatever you see, at pgim we can help you rise to the challenges of today, when active investing and disciplined risk management are needed most. drawing on deep expertise across the world's public and private markets in pursuit of long-term returns... pgim. our investments shape tomorrow today. ever better. it's when disruption hits your supply chain and ryder makes sure you're ever delivering with freight brokerage to transportation management, truckload capacity and dedicated trucks and drivers. i think i'm ready for this. heck ya! with e*trade you're ready for anything. marriage. kids. college. kids moving back in af

are they going to continue going down jeffrey gundlach of double line doesn't think so the two-year line chart looks like the top is not in place long rates remain. belski, you're more bullish than many you can't have rates continue to go up if you're as bullish as you are. it is not going to work. >> breaking news, scott, "halftime" has learned -- >> that you're not bull sish? >> -- that we're not going back to zero interest rates let's grasp that this is a path toward normalization. what does that mean? if you take out the financial crisis, the ten-year treasury is 7% since the financial crisis the average ten-year treasury is 2.4% the average ten-year treasury is 5% blah, blah, blah what does that mean? it means we can be in a 4 to 5 or 3% rate for a while in a normalization like the '80s and '90s where you had single digit earnings growth, high single dij performance in the market, a tamer bond market, that's where we're going we have to shock and awe on the down side, shock and awe and the upside and settle into this new range of normalization >> that's one of the interesting questi

so, if the market is pricing in cuts and gundlach is going to be on on "closing bell" and says the fed will quote, cut substantially and soon, what gets you more optimistic? what is the fed getting it, that means they'll cut? >> i don't get that statement. that means they stopped? >> at minimum they stopped. maybe that drives the market for a day. they won't blow the whistle and say we're done but what does that mean? it doesn't mean damage to the economy is done. i'm not focused on the end point whether we go into recession, a deep recession but focused on the dialogue declining earnings in this quarter. i'm hearing more issues through the system going out over the next few months, so what gets me more positive, when i see analysts getting real about where numbers should be. >> so, in terms of earnings numbers, when you think they have troughed then you get more positive and you don't think they have? >> no, exactly, so take a look. you have 19 times and equity risk premium, which means the value or return i can get in the market versus what i can get in risk-free, you know, instrumen

. >> you're somewhat clairvoyant because i was going to mention what jeffrey gundlach. he was saying the two-year yield chart looks like the top is not in place long rates remain in a multi-month range. again, it's this idea that the fed is going to go higher and maybe faster and stay there longer, steve, than some had anticipated, though as we bring in these new risks to the story, you get the reaction in the bond market that you're noting as we're having this conversation >> yeah. for sure it was remarkable how much the bond market has really sold off in the past month or two if you have the january 24th fed funds contract, go back to february 1, i think it's fff 24, i believe, is the code and you go back there, you'll see 100 basis point rise in that outlook for the funds rate by the year end. never seen anything like that, scott. it's come a long, long way and the result of that is ultimately that the whole shift both earlier and longer has been out there for the fed funds over the next year or so. >> yeah, and, cameron, i'm looking at a note from chris ferrone who

. >> i'll see you in a couple of hours with gundlach on "closing bell." the exchange is now. ♪ ♪ >>> thank you very much, scott hi, everybody. i'm kelly evans and let's quickly recap what's happened since friday right now both svb and signature bank are out of business while first republic has secured funding for j.p. morgan and the fed and a major issue has been the safety of accounts over the $250,000 fdic cap, but president biden this morning saying, quote, deposits will be there when you need them and it will be no cost to the taxpayer the government announcing a new facility that will offer one-year notes to banks and pay them par for collateral like treasurys and mortgages and the very industry that are seeing huge losses and pressuring regional banks we are seeing huge further declines in shares of the regional banks as you can see from a few examples behind me and despite all of that, the broader indexes are still positive as i say that the dow has gone negative i don't want say it makes more sense, but you can hardly call it a surprise. three-poi

bear in mind what good lock says -- gundlach says. says the economic forecast will need to be dialed back to reflect the markets. in asia pretty much green across the board. taiex down by 0.7% dragged down by tech. pretty much the story is up. energy, financials upwards. bear in mind the nasdaq on the cusp of a bull market even though we are seeing tech declining in asia today. in fx, the dollar down for a second day. strength in asian currencies. the rupiah up 0.6%. the yen higher against most g10 currencies, by 0.7%. what is trending down is the filipino peso down despite weakness in the dollar. in the bond market, bonds getting sold off, yields climbing. you talked about the two year yields. it did rise about 4%, down below four at this point in time. five year yields in australia higher by 10 basis points. yvonne: when it comes to what's clashing, it is the banking stocks, it is energy fueling this rally which is what has been needed. these sectors have taken a hit the last two weeks or so. we are seeing when it comes to msci asia

. >> that's jeff gundlach talking about the prospects for a 25 next week.g as early as january that fed was not going to 5, so he's been all over the map in terms of his prognostication. >> not unlike the market the fed expectations have changed dramatically look, i think the most important part of the inflation number today was core cpi services 0.6% better than expected, still reflects the problems there even if you take out shelter inflation there, it's still a half a percent the fed is in the inflation fight, so a few more market days like this, and they will feel better going 25 basis points unfortunately, it sort of depends on what market does. financial conditions as of yesterday looked like they hadn't got past the banking crisis an the fed might have been cautious. >> it may be too early to actually know what the conclusion is, if, in fact, things continue to, but if they were to deteriorate again, it's possible that last-minute decision could be a different than might have been the case? >> i guess i just feel like this fed has been so focused on

the researchers see most gundlach distribution programs offer trigger locks, cable locks, they say moreght be locked up if those programs offered gun safe. instead city council school district actually will be holding a meeting this afternoon at the freedman event center to discuss last week's deadly stabbing inside a classroom. students return to montgomery high yesterday for the first time since the stabbing death of jaden panetta. hundreds of students held a march and rally in the 16 year old and called for better school safety measures. one died here. and that's terrifying. and we have to walk around and be friendly with people and have a smile on our face. like they don't even exist. the santa rosa school board removed specially assigned police officers from campus in 2020 following the death of george floyd. some parents say those officers could have helped prevent last week's deadly stabbing. because there are things that happened beforehand , but there was no one to go to, and that's sad that it takes something like this in order for things to change the 15 year old boys suspect