phil lebeau joins us with the ceo, gus kelly. >> gus, i appreciate you joining us today. s, you heard kelly said up there, and you're seeing what's happening in terms of demand around the world. what is your take as you look into 2024, especially when it comes to international travel? >> phil, it's good to be on. it's pretty robust all around the world. when it comes to international traffic out of the u.s., the biggest market in the world, the most lucrative, is the north atlantic market. that's still booming. we don't see that changing. but phil, a real driver of airline profitability for the medium term is going to be the supply environment. the worst enemy of the airlines is too many seats chasing too few passengers. and so as long as we have more passengers than we have seats, things are going to be fine. and the issues that the industry faces, because of the production problems with boeing, with airbus, and then the genreability of the airplanes when they get into service is the, in my view, going to result in supply shortages for the rest of the decade. >> you think

gus, welcome to you. >> thank you very much, kelly. >> when we talk second quarter next year, april, may, june, that timeme? >> more towards the end of the second quarter, beginning of the third quarter rather than in the early spring. i think the fed wants to be sure that inflation is slowing more towards 2%. it's certainly moving in the right direction. but with the economy remaining strong in late 2023, and it will continue to remain strong in early 2024, i think they're comfortable keeping rate where is they are in the near term. and once it becomes more apparent that inflation is slowing to 2%, they can cut then. >> so your base case is the positive disinflation story or the worrisome kind? >> it's the positive story. we have seen a significant slowing in inflation, particularly on the good side over the past year. housing inflation has been a problem, but that's likely to slow in early 2024 with rent growth slowing dramatically. so i think that we will see slower inflation with still solid growth in the first quarter of 2024, and then that would give the fed some leeway to cut rates next year. >> t