shery: haidi: haidi: there could be -- there could be more pain >>. cuts across the investment banking i'm not a new story. this has been a long readjustment for the economic slow down most cuts started in september of last year so for barclays it looks like around 100 -- 100 people and they are clearly continuing to readjust at the margin and expect a tougher year ahead and of course you see that in the activity numbers are still subdued and we heard from citigroup that fixed income did particularly well, how people have readjusted portfolios so some areas are benefiting but clearly across the board there are adjustments that need to be made whether they need to trim staff around the edges and redeploy as we get further into the slow down. shery: it is still early in asian sessions on u.s. futures are slightly higher. annabelle: focus on u.s. bank earnings setting the tone for the reporting season and debate whether this will mark the bottom for profits and equities could continue to rally but modest gains for u.s. futures. sydney and tokyo are half

haidi: dan murtaugh there now.me under fire for failing to publish its 2021 earnings. let's bring in our bloomberg intelligence analyst. what is hindering evergrande from being able to release these results? >> right, so obviously it will take time, because evergrande just changed its listing in january for its three on-call units and in april it changed its onshore unit, but i think at bigger issue for evergrande is potentially the problem in these reports. there are red flags from debts and the deposit plans between evergrande and its two subsidiaries, and these are issues that would require further investigation into transparency and potential corporate governance issues. shery: what are the implications then for its corporate debt restructuring? >> we are concerned about the risk of delisting from the hong kong stock exchange for its shares by december -- september of this year. it shares will become unlisted and not treatable, and at that point it might be pointless to talk about any debt to equity swap in thi

haidi: a very good morning, welcome to daybreak australia. i am haidi stroud-watts in sydney. shery: i am shery ahn. house speaker kevin mccarthy tells bloomberg china cannot dictate who the u.s. talks to, after his historic meeting with the taiwanese president. haidi: wall street sees a renewed flight to safety with bonds climbing and equities falling with weaker data stoking recession concerns. shery: credit suisse executive bonuses will be cut. u.s. futures under pressure after what was a risk off session, the dow slightly higher but the s&p 500 was down. the profitless tech sector really tumbled today. there were fears about an economic slowdown in the u.s. we had weaker than expected jobs numbers, services numbers that is feeling felt -- being felt. treasuries, that rally continues and the two year yield volatile, at one point falling 18 basis points, also at its lowest level this year. lower by 1.5 percentage points or so below the three-month yield which has been a clear sign of recession. of course, all of the fed throu gh oil prices and the u.s. stockpiles not falling

haidi: a physical 100.s so much when it comes outside of english language offerings at the moment. bob, it is a challenging time for sure when it comes to a lot of these tech starlings. even apple. -- tech darlings. even apple. we are seeing the push into india and these headsets -- offerings as well. what is the outlook for a company like apple that is so much higher on the maturity cycle? what is the next big thing? >> the challenge travel of course course is we have seen both pc's and smart overall on a global basis and in all the regions go down. pc's in particular. smartphones as well. as well as apple has done, it is still a big chunk of their revenue. obviously you will see that challenge. people are simply not upgrading as frequently. the latest phones look like the previous months. we are not seeing something dramatic. we have not seen a foldable for apple. they big bet is this next dr/ar headset. the problem is, expect a $3000 price point and very limited set of applications. this is going to be o

haidi: u.s. stocks adrift as investors digest earnings and economic data.t moves forward with a new deadline looming in the u.s. debt ceiling standoff. shery: china's leaders are expected to shift their policy focus from stimulus to economic reform. u.s. futures are muted at the opening after a session that lacked conviction in new york. the s&p 500 drifting at the start of the week, packed with corporate earnings and economic data. of quest we have the dallas fed manufacturing survey for april coming in weaker than expected. today we are awaiting gdp numbers and core pce data later in the week. nasdaq 100 futures under pressure in the new york session. treasury yields also fallen, the 10-year yield below the 3.50 level. we have the debt ceiling drama. now, hedge funds are betting on higher treasury yields according to data. ,crude prices rising slightly in the new york session. low-volume trading after the biggest weekly drop since march. we are seeing pressure in the asian session. but what we are watching right now in after-hours trading, first republic.

haidi: top stories this hour. imf cuts global growth projections, it is too soon to sound the all clear on financial sector from a prudent janet yellen placed on the baking risks in the u.s.. we hear from the imf korea mission chief as inflation eases. the fed is divided over its next policy move. one official says a rate hike may be regional, another calls for prudence and patience. take a look at breaking news when it comes to the jobless rate in south korea at the moment. we are seeing tick up to 2.7% when it comes to the seasonally adjusted on a plummet rate, lower than expectations of 2.8% heard just higher to the 2.6% that was on for bear. we have seen the job market in south korea seeing unexpected resilience when it comes to the face of broaden her -- weakening demand. we saw that slump in exports and overall trade conditions in the first 10 days, trade numbers out yesterday, all of this has been threats to the job market beard we have seen resilience there. the on implement rate -- unemployment rate bette

haidi: in the u.s.ig tech earnings will have a dose of reality falling impressive gains across the sector powered by ai, and analysts are expecting tech profits to register the biggest drop since 2009 with the businesses curbing spending on software, cloud, and advertising services. vonnie: our next guest says the u.s. market is currently pricing in one more fed rate hike with cuts coming in year's end. franklin templeton it investment solutions head up sustainable investments and portfolio manager kim strand. why is the market so disbelieving there will not be eight pivot? >> thanks for having me. at franklin templeton, i am part of the investment solutions team. i will speak to many markets, but we think that the markets have kind of been rolled into a false sense of optimism. the data has been strong, the growth has been strong. earnings have been really great. our probability of a modest recession has increased since some of the banking turmoil in the u.s., and given that the data continues to stay

haidi: and that is your week ahead.hery: our next guest says she does not believe we are out of the hard landing woods just yet. optimal cap demo advisors director of strategy joins us now from tampa, florida. good to have you back. how do you stay offensive in this environment? >> staying defensive with precious metals, staying defensive with duration and these markets have risen a lot lately so expect a short-term pullback. but generally the trend is up because there is still a lot of risk in the system. see and i lending is going down. lending conditions are tightening significantly. the fed is still committed to tightening despite the fact they put back 63% of what they put off the balance sheet with lending facilities from the banks. i do not think all the rate hikes have worked their way through the system and it looks as though the fed will continue to tighten. and that of course we have the infamous debt ceiling conversation coming later this summer. shery: we cannot forget about that one. of course we have earn

haidi: our next guest says u.s.rnings for the first quarter are likely to be as good as it gets for 2023. whalen global advisors, richard christopher whalen here with us. we saw the big lenders sailing through the quarter, despite this being a quarter where we saw the collapse of three smaller lenders, coordinated banking rescues. is the crisis over? or is this the fact that we are seeing a lot of the concerns to do with smaller lenders benefiting the bigger players? >> that is the narrative. the narrative is wrong. the numbers reported by the big banks show that they are dealing with huge structural change. it is an old base for a larger been going back 100 years. business deposits did not earn interest. business customers today are asking for money because they can get 4% for 90 days. the competitive environment is extraordinary. the u.s. consumer and also business customers are not afraid to ask, as they may have been in the past. as soon as they perceive that it is value, they will ask for it. you're going to se

haidi: kathleen hays there.he strongest cyclone to hit western australia has made landfall, impacting operations in the key commodity producing region let's get the latest in melbourne, australia. we have been talking about the cost of reconstruction and recovery. what is the latest when it comes to it? >> overnight, finally it did cross the coast of western australia, the major townships in that area, so it also crossed over the head land and has made landfall and has been downgraded to a category three cyclone, so according to the bureau of meteorology, it is tracking as expected, on path at the moment. it may make it across the border to the northern territory in coming days, but as i said, it was a category five and has been downgraded to category three and is heading further inland with a lot of strong wind, and expecting dumpings that reigns in the coming days so even though the cyclone has been denigrated and has missed major townships, it is well south of major tourist destinations in australia, in the n

haidi: you mentioned indigenous people. has been some controversy over the naming of the city as well. how do you view these challenges? sarah: we are fortunate to have our city on women's country, we are reflecting that in the name of our first building and have been working with a circle of indigenous elders that are advising us on how we can most effectively design our buildings and name our buildings so they can connect with our first nations people. the name bradfield city centre was part of the visionary approach that the engineer bradfield took to designing one of our famous icons, the bridge here in sydney. the idea behind the name of bradfield was to create a that bridge between east and west sydney and created that visionary approach. haidi: biodiversity has been act the new frontier. how difficult has it been to address those challenges given the location and surroundings? sarah: it's a marta reckon is that most of much of western sydney was agricultural land. much of it has been cleared for those purposes. we wa

haidi: left on president.ur next guest is beginning to feel the impact on the fed rate hikes and expect bigger hikes in the next 6-12 months. we have cherly smith joining us from massachusetts. pretty measured, trying to strike the balance to view, suggesting we are not at the end of the tightening cycle but closer to the end than the beginning. do you think we are finally going to see the catch up from the lag effect that has confounded us from the data we have continued to see? cheryl: that is very true, we are starting to see it in different places. not only the regional bank issues that we had at the end of march, we are starting to see in their loan portfolio's, criticized loans are going up, that is a leading indicator of problems. when we look at the labor market, it has been strong, that is confounding people. you can see that initial jobless claims started rising in september. the continuing claims started rising into september, and are up 40% from the bottom. they are the signs of a labor market that

haidi: look at the price options.e have already reached consensus on analyst price assumption for this year. it's looking a little conservative. look at this chart. 2023 consistent cash consensus forecast is $80 a barrel. goldman raised their forecast to $95 for 2025. does the bullishness in oil prices make you reassess opportunities in the energy sector? terri: sure it does. before the announcement, oil prices had dipped to about a five month low. obviously, this will push oil prices higher. this is obviously good for energy names. it does not change from marv -- from -- some of our other cc. theses. we are constructive on the u.s. stock market and even more constructive on international stocks as a value play. despite the inflationary pressures when you raise oil prices, when you cut demand, it raises prices, it increases inflation. that is not great from the fed's point of view. they have been very focused on inflation. but, we stand by our view that the fed will actually have to cut interest rates this year becaus

haidi: yeah, so much to look out for. even as we think of friday's bank earnings, looking at everything that happened in the rearview mirror, but i like to glean, particularly when you look at the deposit situation. let's look at some of the first word headlines this hour. the fbi has arrested a 21-year-old international guardsmen for the leak of classified documents, which have details on the war in ukraine. attorney general merrick garland said jack teixeira will be charged with the unauthorized removal, transition, and transmission of national defense information. "the new york times" has reported that he was the leader of a gaming chat room where the documents first appeared the strongest cyclone to hit western australia in more than decade has made landfall and is having a major impact on economic producers. world bank president david malpass says that relief relies on china's cooperation. he says there has been some cooperation with beijing softening its stance on multinational lenders, taking losses along with othe

♪ haidi:. very good morning and welcome to "daybreak: australia." am haidi stroud-watts in sydney. we are counting down to asia's major market opens. shery: good evening from bloomberg's world headquarters in new york, i am shery ahn. that top stories this hour. china's factory activity contracting for the first time since december. focus now switching to the start of tourism and consumer activity across the golden week holiday. paul: u.s. regulators are rushing to resolve the first republic bank crisis after that mid-day deadline passed for takeover bids. shery: an australian house prices rise, suggesting a stabilizing property market ahead of tuesday's rba decision. u.s. futures are muted at the open in the asian session. it will be a thin trading day given how many markets are away on the holiday. we have seen the u.s. rally ending on a positive note. strong earnings was a key catalyst. at the same time, weighing sentiment. haidi just mentioned first republic. it fell 40% in friday's session. u.s. core pce remaining brisk, all of that is feeding

haidi: how compelling is that china reopening story?f the carry trade is concentrated in areas where you have the secondary effect which is a demand for commodities. and maximum of 6, 6 .5% compared to 7% to 13% from poland to hungary. we talked about double digits, 12%, 13% for brazil. these countries are big producers of commodities. chinese reopening, global growth means potential for commodities to stay at relatively high prices. there is an inflationary effective that which is the part to gives -- makes central banks hawkish. there is hyperinflation in the past and transmission channel where you don't really have that much of an effect of an economy. the leg is slower so there is higher commitment to hide interest rates. haidi: what are some of the most remarkable trades? >> there are quite a few. especially the china reopening story is the effect where there is a commodity boom. last week has brought me about the government with the new fiscal framework to aim for budgetary restraints. this is boosted optimism, traders have cut sh

haidi: we are coming down to asia's major market opens.hery: first republic bank slashing its workforce, shrinking balance sheets and pursuing strategic action after deposits plummet. credit suisse revealing 69 million dollars in outflows underscoring the challenge for ubs in retaining clients and assets. in china's top leaders are expected to meet to shift policy from stimulus to economic forms. we are getting breaking news when it comes to korea gdp and of course we have been watching for relieve the weakness that we've seen in the south korean economy as it comes to vulnerability to demand and trade flows. this is what we are seeing when it comes to euro gdp, first quarter annual. the number coming in at 1/10 of 1%, shy of expectations of 9/10 of 1% but certainly seeing that weakness when it comes to the pullback that we saw from the previous reading of 1.3%. for a seasonally adjusted rate, that is a gain of 3/10 of 1%, slightly better than expectations and a bounce back from the contraction of 4/10 of 1% that we saw in the previous qua

haidi: sk kim.ter says the government will increase financial support for a chipmaker as it works to develop cutting edge semiconductors. someone said he has high hopes for production in japan. >> the government is ready to continue and beef up financial support. the company needs to spend trillions of yen to develop the semiconductor chips. >> regarding the timing of export controls, you have repeatedly said you do not have a specific country in mind, china made a remark that seemed to restrain japan. is there anything you would like to say? >> a move is not a ban, but strict export controls prevent military appropriation, and these controls apply to all regions and are not meant to target any one country. we will be looking at any possible danger across the board. >> what do you think about the excessive reaction by china? >> if a country moves to retaliate, the government will make appropriate responses according to the international rules. shery: japan's economy and trading industry there. plent

haidi: john herskovitz there.apanese government says it is stepping up support for companies investing overseas as it seeks to retain an upward trend in profits from offshore operations. the visual who runs the investment offered told us exclusively which sectors he hopes will benefit the most. >> there are wide-ranging measures from the upswing to the downswing, because in many japanese companies and in particular startups need information around risks and opportunities in foreign countries, so we are happy to provide information to them with the help from our embassies overseas. at the next stage, we need to help feasibility studies on some pilot projects. a list of subsidies to help those feasibility studies on the pilot project, and we are happy to arrange matching opportunities to match companies with foreign countries. we are happy to offer financing like equity and loans to the japanese companies interested in doing business overseas. finally, it happens sometimes that japanese companies going overseas phas

haidi: su with the latest. watch for major earnings out this week from bank of america, goldman sachs and morgan stanley. to give us a fuller picture of what is going on across the banking sector. let's get you a check of the latest business headlines for hsbc's largest shareholder expected to back resolutions to force it to provide regular updates on its business structure and restore dividends to pre-covid levels. at a meeting, -- backed resolutions put forward by an activist investor. hsbc end to the chinese insurance group have been at odds with the bank repeatedly rejecting calls to break up its business. credit suisse says stash $4.4 billion from its funds since it was acquired by ubs last month. according to analysts, this represents around 2.5% of their assets under management. outflows have eased since march with the recent inflow of $230 million, suggesting the work of the bleeding may be over. alphabet fell the most in more than three weeks following the report that samsung considered replacing googl

haidi: one of the expectations today?l for the company because shares that priced at ¥1400 apiece is at the upper end of the range but it's important to note it was lowered throughout the process because initially they were marketed around ¥1600 apiece so the amount being raised today is a little less than could have been considered initially but it is the biggest a listing we will have seen in tokyo in over four years and certainly will be an important one for the company given that it has a lot of concerns around cash and balance sheet. shery: is this a revival of the sort -- a revival of sorts for the local ipo market? annabelle: it does point to the biggest share seller we have seen. we have not had any companies so far raise more than ¥50 billion in japan this year so it is sizable and the biggest we have seen in tokyo since 2018 when we had around the $20 billion -- ¥20 billion share for softbank. this has been a time of volatility for banks stops in general so it was difficult that it went through when it was tryin

haidi: more from su keenan.hen it comes to fixed income, that stood out. >> volatility, we should point out, is often a good thing for trading as a drink when fell profits but not so for goldman. their fixed income training unit had a revenue decline of 17% with a 3.9 billion dollars in revenue. the estimate was for more than 4.2 million. j.p. morgan all had windfalls. they have become the only wall street bank to have posted a drop for their business, that explains why they are -- their stock dropped as well. at one point it was number 4%. goldman did have its third best quarter in terms of the past decade for the numbers. revenue not quite so bad. competitively it was a loss. equities trading beat, that helped soft and the blow. that's what you saw the stock if back or pair the losses. it unloaded a chunk of its $4 billion loan, the foray into consumer banking that they have -- backed off on. earnings were still down to a year ago. david solomon, the ceo, said the events of the first quarter acted as a real li

haidi: stephen engle in hong kong.se we will bring you more interviews from those key global financial leaders during our imf spring meeting coverage ongoing. this is bloomberg. ♪ go. go brain. no, not that one. go this one. go optimizing data. go efficiency. go results. emerson's plantweb digital ecosystem is the brain for smarter, safer and more sustainable performance. go plant go. go boldly. emerson. >> they were done in january. the growth data is showing korea is already in recession. david: the head of research at socgen speaking with us right after the be ok decision on whether rates have peaked in korea. certainly markets have run with the narrative that rates have peaked in the south korea one has underperformed on the spot and a total return basis which reflects what is happening outside, which is external demand weakness. haidi: yeah, i'd like the way you put it in the context of the won doing poorly when the dollar has been doing poorly, of that tells you something about the weakness we have seen right, wi

im haidi in sydney. >> i am annabel in hong kong.e are counting down to asia's market opens. >> good evening from bloomberg headquarters. i'm shery ahn. at the top stories, u.s. stocks and bonds traded in narrow ranges as investors digest march inflation data which slowed more than forecast. the latest fed minutes show officials scaled-back hike expectations due to financial turmoil. brazil's president lands in china as the president seeks to build momentum for talks to stop the fighting in ukraine. shery: take a look at u.s. futures coming online right now, because we had a down session in new york. u.s. futures are not doing much but this is after the brief rally at the open in the new york session. it slowed down after the inflation number moderated last month. but we have to wait for those producer price numbers to come up on thursday to get more clarity on where cpi broader inflation numbers are headed. and we have been watching treasury yields down across the board. the two year treasury yield is slumping as much as 15 basis po

haidi: let's take a look at south korea.here is a lot of downside pressure particularly when it comes to the developing geopolitical story as well as the cyclical story when it comes to semi conductors. >> absolutely, i think korea has a lot of pressure cyclically and structurally. across asia traders are facing problems. south korea as in the first quarter of a double-digit decline in exports, and it is not the only one. it is exposed to the semi conductor cycle, and it is not just because prices have fallen due to the blood but also because of the fact that it is facing geopolitical pressures between the u.s. and china, rising protectionist policies, ambition to vertically integrate into china. if you look at the trade deficit in china, it is quite worrying. we should expect gdp to take a hit from weakening exports even though imports declined to bit less because the energy crisis is abating. it is leading to a trade deficit. we have investment as a challenge. corporates are cutting capex, which is a silver lining. a suppl

as you know india has the growing demand and i am haidi stroud-watts. -- affordable prices.rnible] voluntary and announced by opec-plus and a knee-jerk reaction to the market, and an increase in crude prices, and then one year has been trying to manage the oil products available at affordable price [indiscernible] although there is a negative impact on inflation. [indiscernible] one of part of it to ensure that the project [indiscernible] [indiscernible] domestic market and i think that there have been trying to moderate it in on both sides positive as well as negative side. and i think this will continue for some time when we have pricing -- and to ensure that does not have an impact -- rishaad: if you could be a bit more brief. i want to get a sense of how much oil is being imported from russia and what are the problems inherent in that in terms of the payment and the like? >> india was initially not importing oil from russia, but [indiscernible] is flowing from the russian market and there is no much [indiscernible] in getting the oil because most of it comes on the [indi

hike i the fed and this of course all ahead of the big rate decision made in south korea as well, haidiecision days in south korea, we are also watching the bank of japan with the new governor. it may be interpreted as starvation and we want to see how much more drag we see when it comes to trading in the end. let's take a look at the market open. >> we are watching the japanese yen this morning, holding fairly steady, it was the biggest underperformer against the greenback in the g10 space. but the open now of japan and south korea and australia is upon us. we started training here for cash treasuries. so i did mention the yen is holding steady as you can see there. watching how it will go against the 10 year yield in the session, we did continue to see yields rising in the prior days. that was as investors continue to build their bets that the fed will hike by another quarter percentage point at its meeting in may. so that yen weakness is something that can help japanese exporters. we are seeing the nikkei coming online, likely to be the big driver of the specific index in the day's t